Picks of the Week

Another winning week to cut into the big deficit that hit me a few weeks ago.  Super short week with two Christmas Day games, so I have no idea what is going to happen this week.  Let's see how it goes.  

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This seems like a really close game, especially given the short week and George Pickens coming back, but I think I have learned not to bet against Kansas City.

Baltimore Ravens -6 at Houston Texans

Houston deflated when Tank Dell was injured.  Wednesday is too short of a time frame for the team to get themselves out of that funk.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Chicago keeps it close at home on a short week; Caleb throws for over 300 yards to put himself in line to break the season-season record for the Bears.

New England Patriots +4 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Short week, west coast team flying east and playing in the 1:00 slot - ON A SHORT WEEK.  New England played Buffalo close last week as well, so they might be on a roll.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

If there is a defense that Bo Nix needs to rebound against, it is Cincinnati's, but the Burrow-Chase combination has been ridiculous this year, and I expect that to continue, especially on a short week.

Los Angeles Rams -6 v. Arizona Cardinals

It is time for Arizona to start examining the Kyler Murray era.

Dallas Cowboys +9 at Philadelphia Eagles

Yes Dallas is 7-8 and Philadelphia is 12-3, but Dallas has been playing much, MUCH better lately, winning 4 of its last 5.  And, with this being a divisional game, I did not expect the spread to be THIS high.  Philadelphia should still win, but 9 points is too much.  I'll take them.

New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills

Much like the above Dallas-Philadelphia game, this spread is way too high, especially given Buffalo's recent streak:  W+3, W+6, Loss.  I'll take the points, even though I expect a Buffalo win.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 at New Orleans Saints

Brock Bowers might be the only thing to watch in this game; unless you are just rooting for Cameron Jordan in his 58th season for the Saints.  New Orleans just got drubbed on Monday night, so it is a short week for them.

Indianapolis Colts -8 at New York Giants

The Giants gave up on this season a long time ago.

Carolina Panthers +8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really wanted to pick Tampa Bay here, given that they are at home, but they beat Carolina a few weeks ago by only 3, and the Panthers have been in close battles lately:  W+6; L-16; L-6, L-3, L-3 (Kansas City), L-3, W+1, so all signs point to this being a close game.

Tennessee Titans -1 at. Jacksonville Jaguars

Mac Jones has actually been moving this team a bit in relief of Trevor Lawrence, but Mason Rudolph is a more steadying hand for the Titans than Will Levis was.  Plus, Tennessee has the number 1 defense in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -3 at Cleveland Browns

Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his 30.1 quarterback rating.

So, this spread has dropped to -3 from -6 1/2, in large part because Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has been ruled out.  So, we now have an immortal qb matchup - Tyler Huntley versus Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  And, Thompson-Robinson still has a 30.1 quarterback rating.

Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Green Bay Packers

In what is essentially a pick 'em, I will take the home team because I have no idea who is going to win this game.

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Last week's game was a big pick-me-up for this Commanders offense, which they continue this week against the 21st ranked passing defense and the 19th ranked scoring defense.  Plus, let's give some love to the Commanders and their 9th ranked total defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

This game almost seems unfair, especially since we never know who will be playing for San Francisco from one week to the next.  Either way, Detroit rolls.

Big Bets:

Carolina Panthers +8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really wanted to pick Tampa Bay here, given that they are at home, but they beat Carolina a few weeks ago by only 3, and the Panthers have been in close battles lately:  W+6; L-16; L-6, L-3, L-3 (Kansas City), L-3, W+1, so all signs point to this being a close game.

Carolina was good to me for the big bet last week, so I will roll with them again for a second week in a row.

I had so many to choose from, Miami (road favorite), Las Vegas (same thing), Dallas, but rolling with the Panthers.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  118-112-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-7

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $390

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($325)

Picks of the Week

 

Winning record but lost money, thanks to the fact I forgot George Pickens wasn't playing.  Won't make that mistake today.  Thursday pick looked great for the first half, then the Chargers came to life.  Oh well.  Two Saturday games - let's get after it.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

Like I typed earlier, first half looked great.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, the away team on a short week.  Houston's defense is on a heater - moving up to 6th in total defense and 9th in scoring defense, and Kansas City, even though they win, don't blow anyone out.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

The aforementioned George Pickens loss makes Pittsburgh's offense really stagnant.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 at Chicago Bears

The Bears snuck up on Detroit on Thanksgiving.  They will not do that this week.

Cincinnati Bengals -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Dorian Thompon-Robinson?  And Cincinnati has the 5th highest scoring offense in the NFL, going against the 26th ranked scoring defense.

 

Atlanta Falcons -9 v. New York Giants

I ordinarily hate picking a team starting a QB for his first ever NFL start, but Penix might just be what Atlanta needs after Kirk Cousins squandered a 6-3 start.  Plus, it's the Drew Lock-led New York GIants, and his 54.6 rating.

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Will Levis is officially looking over his shoulder; and a nervous Will Levis is a bad Will Levis.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Road favorites in an intradivisional matchup are difficult picks, but not when that team is among the best in the NFL right now.  Philadelphia are 4th in total offense (1st in rushing) and 1st in total defense 1st in passing and scoring).

Los Angeles Rams -3 at New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers' destruction of a New York institution is almost complete.

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Seattle Seahawks

I might as well just keep picking road favorites!  How can that hurt?

New England Patriots +14 at Buffalo Bills

Only because the spread is two touchdowns.  Likely would have taken Buffalo if it was 10, maybe even 11.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Long live the Mac Jones Era!!!

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Miami Dolphins

Looks like the Dolphins will be without Jaylen Waddle AND Tyreek Hill.  I reserve the right to change this before game time if Hill plays.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is playing like not only will they deserve to be in the playoffs, but they could make some noise.  But, Dallas has been playing a lot better recently, and if not for a weird blocked punt, muff for a Cincinnati first down, could be on a four-game winning streak.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, do I think that New Orleans will win? No.  Do I think New Orleans will keep this close?  Also no. But 14 1/2 is a lot of points to give up in an NFL game.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Because it seems so crazy, I will take Carolina.  For most of my other choices they were either giving points, or on the road (or both?!), so I will take the points in a home game and hope for the best.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  109-106-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-7

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($715)

Picks of the Week

Slightly in the black (now a 3-week winning streak), and that is how we have to chip away at the deficit.  All 16 teams in action this week, so some room to really move up (or down!).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at San Francisco

Glad I picked it, but boy was this game brutal.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

This game is really difficult to pick because this Cowboy team could either come out firing because of the tragic way this team lost on Monday night (blocked punt fumble recovered by Cincinnati for a first down), or just pack the season away.  I would ordinarily think the latter given no real chance at the playoffs for them, except Carolina is worst against the run in the entire NFL and Rico Dowdle has show some spark running.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

I haven't had a strong feeling about a back-door cover in a long time, but the facts that this Chiefs defense is really good, but that somehow they generally play really close games.  Perhaps a late Jameis Winston TD to lose 24-20.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins being back is a game-changer, but the team - other than the Dallas game - has not been as dominating as it should be.  I think last week we finally got to see the true Tyreek Hill after a long drought (10-115-1).

Washington Commanders -7 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

What is a Jake Haener?

 

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I should pick Tennessee here because they have the #1 ranked defense against the pass (and second overall) and because Cincinnati played Monday night - but that just isn't how I see it.  Burrow throws for close to 300 and Cincinnati cruises.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 v. New York Jets

We are just weeks away from Aaron Rodgers joining the leadership of the Department of Health and Human Services, and we expect him to care about the Jaguars?  Also, Mac Jones has historically played really well against the Jets.

New York Giants +16 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

It is almost absurd that an NFL team is giving 16 1/2 points while at home, and I still seriously considered taking the Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson's QB Rating is 64.3, primarily because his completion percentage is 47.44%.

Buffalo Bills +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

The two best teams in the league right now, so I will take the points.  That is all I am basing this pick on.  Getting points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is essentially a playoff game, as both teams are in playoff contention, and like the Bills pick above, I will take the points.  Plus, we do not know what we might get out of an injured Justin Herbert today.

Arizona Cardinals -6 v. New England Patriots

Arizona is just one of those teams that play great when you don't expect them to, and they play bad when you expect them to play well.  I don't know, so I'll just expect them to win here, and I hope they cover.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/5 v. Green Bay Packers

Seattle recently defeated Aaron Rodgers, so now I expect them to take out his former team.  Honestly, I think this Seattle team is way better than most people think, and they are getting points at home.  I'll take it.

Minnesota Vikings -7 v. Chicago Bears

Yes, the Bears have played the NFC Central extremely close, having recently covered against the Vikings at home.  This isn't the same as the Bears have fired Matt Eberflus and the team looked absent last week.  Vikings at home.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Desmond Ridder will feature prominently, and not for the Falcons.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?

I would like this better if Pittsburgh at home, even though the spread then woul dbe like 3 or 2 1/2, but I still like this pick.  Two of the best total defenses in the NFL (Philly 1; Pittsburgh 5), but unless the Eagles get more balance on offense (1st in rushing, 31st in passing), then Pittsburgh's defense can just key on Barkley.  No George Pickens hurts, but likely not that much as Wilson likes to spread things around anyway.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-4-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  100-99-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-6

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 95

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($685)

Picks of the Week

 

Another week in the black!!!  Not enough to erase the deficit from a couple of weeks ago, but one winning week away from making it a streak.  Let's start that streak this weekend!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Green Bay Packers

Home team on a short week; and the Lions really wanting to prove something given that they eeked out a Thanksgiving Day win against Chicago.

Atlanta Falcons +6 at Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta has lost w in a row, and I do not expect them to end that streak, but Minnesota has played in a lot of one-possession games recently, and the one that wasn't, they only scored 23 against the Titans.  I expect this to be close, with Kirk Cousins and the 5th ranked passing offense keeping Atlanta in the game against the 28th ranked passing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

I feel like the Jaguars offense played okay under Mac Jones after Trevor Lawrence went out last week, but not sure this Titans defense is where a backup quarterback can thrive.

New Orleans Saints -5 at New York Giants

At 4-8 the Saints are only two games off the NFC South lead; at 2-10 the Giants are staring at Shadeur Sanders or Cam Ward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Mike Evans is a go, and besides, the Buccaneers are 6th in passing even having lost Godwin for the year and Evans for a bunch of games.  Plus, the Raiders are playing in the 1:00 window after travelling from the Pacific Time Zone.  The winner of this game should be called the Pittsburgh Pirates for the next year.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland defeated the Steelers in Cleveland just two weeks ago; and they took the Broncos to the brink on Monday night.  But that is the problem - it was Monday, meaning they are on a short week.  I think Pittsburgh remembers that loss and will want to avenge it.

Carolina Panthers +14 at Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are way better than the Panthers, but in Carolina's last 4 games they have won 2 and lost by 3 and 3 in the other two.  This spread looks a bit high.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. New York Jets

Miami has to win out for the opportunity to make the playoffs, and in the span of their last 5 games, they have the Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns, and Jets.  Don't know how all 5 of the games are going to go, but this week New York is without Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner, so it should start off well for Miami.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

New interim head coach Thomas Brown takes over for deposed Matt Eberflus, but what hasn't changed is that the Bears have covered against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions in consecutive weeks.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle can add to its one-game lead in the west over the Cardinals (and the Rams).  This game seems really close on paper, and when it is close - I take the points.

Los Angeles Rams +3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This pick is just a hunch, as I think Buffalo might suffer from a bit of a letdown after clinching the AFC East last week.

Los Angeles Chargers +4 at Kansas City Chiefs

Despite their 11-1 record, Kansas City has not really blown anyone away.  The spreads in the last few games:  W2, W3, L9, W2, W6, W7.  If they win this game, this trend will continue; and a good chance exists that they may not even win this game.

Dallas Cowboys +5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I expect a shootout Monday night as Cincinnati is the #1 ranked passing team in the NFL, and surprisingly, Dallas is 7th.  Cincinnati's pass defense is 27th whereas Dallas's is a respecatble 13th.  What does this all mean?  A passing shootout.  Dallas may not win, but this game should be fun and close.

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

New interim head coach Thomas Brown takes over for deposed Matt Eberflus, but what hasn't changed is that the Bears have covered against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions in consecutive weeks.

I am going with the fired coach effect here.  The Bears were close in many games before Eberflus was fired; and they might just win this one outright.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  93-95-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($775)

Picks of the Week

 

So, back in the red.  Not out of the hole yet, but a much better week.  And, I did my picks ahead of time for last week, so will do that again, making my picks for all of the games ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown!!!  Happy Thanksgiving to all, and may we all be thankful for another winning week!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions -9 1/2

I do not think the Bears will beat Detroit - they won't - but they have played both divisional rivals close in the last two weeks, covering both spreads as they lost to the Packers by 1 and the Vikings by 3.  Maybe a 28-20 type of loss here tomorrow?  And yes, I know, short week and all, but there are three Thursday games,, plus one Friday, so have to try one road team.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Miami has won 3 in a row, after a close loss to Buffalo, so they are cruising with Tua back behind center.  Jordan Love has an 18:11 TD:INT ratio, and will likely throw one tomorrow.

Kansas City Chiefs -13 v. Las Vegas Raiders

So the Chiefs have been in a lot of close games, and there is no way they should cover this spread given their performances this year.  But, they are home on a short week, Isaiah Pacheco migh be back to give the running game a boost, and the Raiders lost Gardner Minshew for the season, meaning Desmond Ridder picks up the start, although even they cannot decide if it's Ridder or Aiden O'Connell.

Houston Texans -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston needs a win after losing to the Titans, despite forcing 19,000 turnovers, just like they lost to the Lions 3 weeks ago, after making 5 interceptions.  This defense is humming, and the Jaguars offense doesn't need that, although it is rumored that Trevor Lawrence is practicing, and Brian Thomas might be back.  Won't matter.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers face the double-whammy of playing in the east coast in the 1:00 time slot AND having played Monday night, so this is a short week.  The loss of J.K. Dobbins - if he is indeed out with a knee strain, could also seriously hurt.  Give me the noon nightmare.

Tennessee Titans +5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Tennessee snuck up with a win last week against Houston, and Will Levis has been playing somewhat well.  The Commanders are on a three-game losing streak.  I do not expect that streak to continue, as they should still pull this out, but Tennessee's 1st overall defense and 1st in passing defense could really challenge Washington, and keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona keeps looking on the verge to really take off, but they haven't.  Minnesota is 9th in scoring and 5th in scoring defense.  That is a really good combination, especially since their #1 ranked rush defense could tymie Arizona's 6th ranked rushing offense.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at New England Patriots

Since Anthony Richardson is so up-and-down, and the Colts beat the Jets two weeks ago, and lost to Detroit last week (no harm there), perhaps Richardson is up this week.  That is really my unscientific and unmathematical analysis.  But, evern though Indianapolis is 1-4 in their last 5, those losses have been to the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans.  All playoff teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

I don't know how Pittsburgh is doing it either, honestly, but their 7th overall defense (4th in rush and scoring) is the best place to start.  The Bengals #1 passing offense will look to take advantage of the Steelers relative weekness against the pass (17th).  Me, I'll just take the points in almost any AFC North matchup.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Jets

I hate making this pick since the game is in the 1:00 time slot in New Jersey, but I believe Geno Smith will find a way to outshine Aaron Rodgers, who may have already caused the team to turn against him.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Of all the teams way back in the standings, I expect the Dolphins to make the most interesting playoff run, but that is only because the Rams, at 5-6, are only 1 game off the lead of the NFC West.  Being this close with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for a large swath of the beginning of the season, is dangerous for the reast of the NFC West.  They should handle New Orleans, who is coming off a bye week that may have stopped their momentum from a two-game win streak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young has definitely improved since his return from the bench, but Baker Mayfield looks posed to capitalize on a healthy Mike Evans in his return from injury with one full game under his belt.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I am soooo looking forward to this game.  I am taking Philadelphia because among great teams I would prefer to take the points, but also because Baltimore played on Monday, making this a short week for them.  Both teams only real weakness (Baltimore 31st pass defense/Philadelphia 25th pass offense) will compete against each other, as will their strengths (Baltimore's number 1 total offense/Philadelphia's number 2 total defense; Philadelphia's number 1 rush offense/Baltimores #2 rush defense).  Like I wrote, I am looking forward to this game. 

Buffalo Bills -7 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is just too banged up right now to really compete.  Buffalo is only one-game behind Kansas City in the fight for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 v. Clevleand Browns

Two teams I can never figure out, but in this scenario I know Denver is actually good, and Cleveland is not.  If I am going to be surprised, so be it.  Give me the good team.

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

This is not me picking Cooper Rush, but rather the fact that Dallas' defense has the chance to just thoroughly humiliate a quarterback that likely should not even be in the NFL.  I know it is a Thanksgiving Thursday game, and short week games are difficult to prognosticate, but I see nothing more obvious than this game this week.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  85-87-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($845)

Picks of the Week

 

So, back on the winning track (kind of).  Two games over .500 is a start, although losing the Big Bet made me go backward monetarily.  I will take the winning week as a springboard for a monster this week (I hope?!)

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Ok, so first game and I am breaking the gambling rules by selecting the visiting team on a short week.  I don't like it, but instead of coming back down to earth after a big win over Ravens last week, I think the Steelers are going to be energized and really put it to the Browns.  I am thinking about making this my Big Bet.  We will see.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

I cannot select two road, intradivisional favorites in a row.  That would drive me crazy.  And besides, this Bears defense is no joke.  The only question is can they bounce back after a second, heart-breaking defeat last week with the Packers blocking Cairo Santos' last-second field goal.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at New York Giants

This game, and this line is utterly preposterous.  Tommy DeVito?  What on earth to make of him?  Really, I don't care as I think Baker Mayfield will be happy to have Mike Evans back!  But this game is also why I picked the Bears.  Can't select three road favorites in the first 3 games.

Detroit Lions -7 at Indianapolis Colts

Until somebody proves otherwise, I am selecting the Lions.  I almost don't care the spread.  1st in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense, 3rd in rushing offense, 6th, in passing offense, 5th in scoring and rushing defense all make for a helluva squad.

Tennessee Titans -7 1/2 at Houston Texans

Only because Houston played Monday night.  The return of Nico Collins really does make for a more potent offense, though, so I was tempted to give the points, but Tennessee's defense is 1st against the pass and 2nd in total defense.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. New England Patriots

A whole lot of favorites here, but I think that Miami could put together a bit of a win streak here to make the playoff chase interesting down the line.

Washington Commanders -10 v. Dallas Cowboys

As I stated last week, going against the Cowboys until proven otherwise, almost no matter the spread.  And Dallas is on a short week this week (and next week, too!)

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

OK, not sure if it is me that is not even trying and just picking favorites, or if these games really are out-of-control this week.  Picking KC not because of Mahomes, but because their 3rd rated defense is palying the worst rated offense.

Denver Broncos -6 at Las Vegas Raiders

I can't help myself.  The Broncos have been undersold on the betting lines all year, and the Raiders - except for Brock Bowers - might be tanking.  Oh year, and Maxx Crosby, that guy plays 100% no matter what.

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game go either way.  Even though it is only 1 point, I will take it.  Perhaps a 28-27 push.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Love will make a crucial turnover.  San Francisco is getting George Kittle back.  He will be the difference.   That was my thoughts before seeing that Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa are both out, and maybe Trent Williams.  You know Bosa is hurt because he would have loved sacking Jordan Love.

Los Angeles Rams +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I actually think Philly is the better team and will win.  I do, however, really like this Rams team and would love to see them end up in the playoffs.  It will be hard to find a game with better receivers than A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Cooper Kupp, and Puca Nakua.  Should be a fun one to watch!

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

Baltimore will be angry after their loss to the Steelers.  The Chargers defense is number 1 in scoring, but they are 11th total and rushing, and 12th passing.  Baltomre is first in total offense, second in scoring and rushing, and 3rd in passing.  They are last in the league against the pass, so there might be some plays for Justin Herbert to exploint, but I think the Ravens win bigger than most think.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Love will make a crucial turnover.  San Francisco is getting George Kittle back.  He will be the difference.   That was my thoughts before seeing that Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa are both out, and maybe Trent Williams.  You know Bosa is hurt because he would have loved sacking Jordan Love.

Too many injuries for San Francisco against a really good team.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  77-82-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,245)

Picks of the Week

 

Last week was brutal.  Just horrible.  So bad that I have not yet even performed the calculations.  Will do that at the end of this post, but I will be significantly down this year, in record and money.  Well, gotta get back up with some winning weeks, and Thursday night was a great start!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. Washington Commanders

Home team, short week.  Simple, simple choice, especially as the home team is really starting to put their team together.

Chicago Bears +5 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

I think Green Bay will win this.  This pick is not being made with my heart.  Love has been very inconsistent this year, and I hate taking road intradivisional favorites.

Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets are 25th against the rush on defense.  I expect to see a lot of Jonathan Taylor AND Anthony Richardson - with his legs.  And given that performance last week against the Cardinals, this team may be giving up on Aaron Rodgers.

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I know I said I hate road intradivisional favorites - and I do - but that doesn't mean that I won't pick them from time-to-time.  The Steelers have beaten the Ravens 10 straight times, however, Derrick Henry wasn't the running back in any of those games.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee's defense doesn't make sense; they are 1st in total defense and pass defense; but they are 29th in scoring defense.  This may be a close game until late, but I expect a Vikings win by about 10.

New Orleans Saints +1 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

I don't want to bet this game, I don't want to watch this game, and I don't want anything to do with this game.  Gimme the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +12 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are the best team in football the way they are playing.  But, the Jaguars last three games (all losses) have been by 5 to the Vikings, 5 to the Eagles, and 3 to the Packers.  Close losses to really, really good teams.

Las Vegas Raiders +7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Two competing betting rules:  Bet against the Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 slot, and don't bet a team playing on a short week. Since both of these are happening; I am taking the points, especially since it is over a touchdown.

New England Patriots +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In almost every circumstance I would be betting the Rams here, as they have been playing much better - despite last week's loss to the Miami Dolphins - since Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have returned.  They have won 3 of their last 4, incouding wins over the Seahawks and Vikings.  But, they are on a short week having played Monday night, and they are playing near Boston in the 1:00 time slot.

Atlanta Falcons +2 at Denver Broncos

Strength on strength as Atlanta's offense (5th in passing, 5th overall) against Denver's defense (4th in scoring, 6th overall, 7th rushing), and the other side of the ball for both team's is mediocre.  The Falcons need this game after falling to the Saints last week.

San Francisco 49ers -6 v. Seattle Seahawks

This could be a really exciting game as the number 7 total offense (1st passing) in Seattle will be playing the number 2 offense (2nd passing, 4th rushing, 7th scoring) in San Fracnico.  The diference, the 49ers have the 5th best total defense and the Seahawks have the 26th.  And, Christian McCaffrey has a game under his belt.

Buffalo Bills -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

This is the game to watch to this week.  And my selection is more feel than research.  Buffalo just seems to be playing better, despite Kansas City being undefeated.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The Chargers are the most difficult team upon which to score, giving up only 13.1 piints per game, and they have a very balanced defense (9th against the run, and the pass, for 8th overall).  Ladd McConkey seems to be emerging as a pass-catching weapon, Justin Herbert hasn't really broken out yet this year.  Cincinnati scores (5th in the league) mainly because of their passing (4th in the NFL), but their defense is below average.  The Chargers at home in a prime time game.

Houston Texans -7 at Dallas Cowboys

It will take a lot, AND I MEAN A LOT, to pick the Cowboys going forward.  But, for starters, Dallas is 31st in the league in rushing AND rush defense.  Not a good combo.

Big Bet:

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are the best team in football the way they are playing.  But, the Jaguars last three games (all losses) have been by 5 to the Vikings, 5 to the Eagles, and 3 to the Packers.  Close losses to really, really good teams.

Fourteen points is a lot of points in the NFL, especially when a team receiving the points has been playing close games.  Yes, I realize that Mac Jones is the quarterback for Jacksonville, but I have been seeing this year that maybe, just maybe, Trevor Lawrence isn't that good?

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  69-76-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-4

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($865)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,220)

Picks of the Week

It is the heart of the season where teams make a playoff push, or fall, and bettors make money, or lose.  Time to button-up and get some wins.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The first game between these two teams was an overtime barnburner, but this time around is a short week for the visting Bengals.  Still managed to take it down to the wire.

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany

Carolina is embarrasing - so let's send them overseas.

Chicago Bears -6 v. New England Patriots

Perhaps this bet is just hopeful.

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

This might just be the defense that Caleb Williams needs to right the ship and prove that he is improving in his rookie season.  This is not the defense Drake Maye wants to see right now, even though he has shown promise in his few starts.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

West coast team traveling east versus team on a short week. So, there is no good bet here.  I am taking the team with returning playmakers (McCaffrey and Jennings), versus the team without them (Godwin and Evans).

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I would feel much better if this was a 6 1/2 point spread, as this is a divisional game, but DeAndre Hopkins makes this Chiefs offense way scarier, as defenses had focused on Travis Kelce, and now they can't.  Plus, the Chiefs deense has been outstanding (2nd overall, 3rd against the rush, and 4th in scoring).

Buffalo Bills -4 at Indianapolis Colts

For all of the blame that Indy's offense, particularly Anthony Richardson, has taken this year, the Colts' defense is 30th in total defense, 26th in passing, 31st in rushing, and 24th in 3rd down percentage.  Just what Josh Allen needs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Washington Commanders

The marquee game of the week.  Really just playing a hunch here, given Brian Robinson is out for Washington.

Minnesota Vikings -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota as a road favorite this high is tough, but Jacksonville's defense is 31st in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (and 30th in scoring defense), not good when going against Justin Jefferson.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Another big spread, but at least this time at home.  Chargers are the stingiest team to score against, and Tennessee rarely scores (27th in NFL).

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia has won 4 in a row, and the Cowboys are without Dak Prescott, and CeeDee Lamb is hobbled.

New York Jets -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Just a hunch honestly, based on the Jets defense (2nd in passing, 6th in total defense, 10th in scoring defense).

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins would be a great return for this Texans, but he still might not be up-to-speed, and this Lions team is humming with 6 wins in a row.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The Rams are on a 3-game winning streak, and get to host the struggling Dolphins at home.  Can the Rams defense (24th against the run) slow down Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert?  Enough, yes, given that the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have made this offense way more potent than its ranking (18th).

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

When you take a lot of favorites, you have to select a big bet giving points, and 3 1/2 is not that much given how easily I think the Falcons will win.  It has taken a while for the defense - and all its new members - to gel, but Justin Simmons and the other new Falcons are certainly coming around.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-66-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-3

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($355)

Picks of the Week

 

Two pummeling weeks in a row, although this time mostly because of the Big Bet.  But seriously, who saw Cleveland covering the spread against Baltimore, much less winning outright.  And that Jayden Daniels Hail Mary, now forever remembered as the Tyrique Stevenson play!  Football, amirite?

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at New York Jets

I saw this one coming a mile away.  I even commented to several people that this line looked way too easy.  But I fell for it anyway.  Home team on a short week.  Home team on a short week.  Home team on a short week.  I feel like I need to Bart Simpson a chalkboard with this saying.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Denver's defense is really good; 7th against the run, 4th against the pass, 3rd in scoring defcnse and 3rd in total defense.  But, this is a Baltimore revenge game after last week's embarrasing loss.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes there is only 1 game difference between these two teams, and yes Cincinnati's strength (7th in passing offense) could be counteracted by Las Vegas' strenght (7th in passing defense, but Cincy scores a lot more than the Raiders, and the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playin gin the 1:00 slot.  So, I am just going to adhere to the football gambling rules and take the home team (although not sure where the falling back hour enters the equation).

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

The Titans defense is good to great, but their offense is pathetic.  The Patriots are just bad, but they get Drake Maye back, and that has to count for something.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Yes I am taking a road intradivisional favorite, but I think Carolina has proven time-and-time again just how bad they really are.  And, Derek Carr returns for New Orleans.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas' run game is truly horrific (last in the league) and now Ezekial Elliott is left home for disciplinary reasons.  Is Dallas falling apart, or will they rally? We don't really know, but Atlanta's pass offense is 6th in the NFL and Dallas's pass defense is 20th, so I will go with any rally falls short.

Buffalo Bills -6 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes Tuanigamatualepola Tagavialoa has a game under his belt after returning from the league's concussion protocol, but he was healthy and at home in Week 2's 31-10 loss to these same Bills, who have the 5th-highest scoring team in the NFL, and the 6th-best scoring defense.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback.  Could it have been a fluke?  Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco.  Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.

Washington Commanders -4 at New York Giants

If ever there was a game for a let down, this one could be it for the Commanders after last week's disastrous let down in the fourth quarter only to be victorious on the hail mary.  And, I would think that betting-wise, especially given that Washington is an intra-divisional road favorite; however, the Giants played Monday night, and thus are on a short week.  Washington continues its resurgence.

Chicago Bears +2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Bears have demoted Tyrique Stevenson for this game, but he will play.  Not sure how this team adjusts after that crazy ending last week in Washington, but ARizona is 26th against the pass, and D.J. Moore is due for a crazy game.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Philly has won 3 in a row after losing to Cleveland in week 6, and have had two blowouts on the road in the past two weeks.  They are getting hot, and Jacksonville - despite playing tough against Green Bay - is not.  The Jaguars are 31st in defensing the pass, and Philadelphia has all of its weapons - including A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Two teams that I absolutely cannot figure out for the life of me.  Both could end up 6-11 or 7-10; or in the second round of the playoffs.  Crazy.  Just taking the points.

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

So, a third intradivisional favorite makes me nervous; but Detroit really looks like the best team in football right now.  The offense is humming (4th overall and 1st in scoring); the defense - although not great overall (20th) - has its strengths (1st in 3rd down percentage; 5th in rush defense and 8th in scoring defense).  Green Bay also has a prodigious offense (5th in rushing, 6th total offense and scoring offense, and 8th in passing offense), but their defense is way more pedestrian.  Not bad, just pedestrian.  Plus, with Jordan Love playing but perhaps at less than 100%, the Lions take a big jump toward home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

A move to Joe Flacco could help jump start this team, given the Colts a passing threat to help make room for Jonathan Taylor.  And the fact that this change came at the demand of several of the team's leaders themselves, means the rest of the team could be rallying behind Flacco (like Cleveland last year?).  Not sure they win, but they should keep this close.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a lot of points to give up.  A LOT.  And, if I told you the team with the 2nd best passing offense, the 4th  best scoring offense, the 5th best total offense and the 10th best rushing offense was playing on Monday - you would agree that the Chiefs are a great offense.  Except those rankings are the Buccaneers. But, and it's a big BUT - like Kim Kardashian level - that was when Tampa Bay had receivers.  Without receivers, this KC defense (2nd against the rush, 2nd in total defense, and 5th in scoring defense) will be too suffocating at home.

Big Bet:

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback.  Could it have been a fluke?  Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco.  Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.

I know this sounds crazy, but I like to pick home teams either getting points, or giving just a few, so this game fits the bill.  And, we cannot view this team as the Cleveland Browns from most of the rest of the year as DeShaun Watson is not playing.  He was the biggest hinderance on this offense.  Look for two of Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy to approach (or hit) 100 yards receiving with Winston flinging and the Chargers' defense focused on a healthier Nick Chubb.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $90

Picks of the Week

 

After two great weeks in a row, last week did me in.  A big negative salvaged only by virtue of winning the Big Bet, which continues to be my saving grace in this NFL season.  If I could figure out Arizona, well then that would be something!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Cooper Kupp back; Puka Nacua returns; and the home team on a short week.  Easy call, even with Minnesota playing really well.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Yes, this Browns team is a dumpster fire.  Jameis Winston could give them some fire offensively and Nick Chubb has a game under his belt.  And to top it off, Baltimore played Monday night.

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Good win in London on Sunday, but now the Jaguars face a 5-2 Packers team that didn't have to travel home from the United Kingdom.

Tennessee Titans +11 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Yes the Lions are really good, especially on offense where they are 4th in rushing, 3rd in scoring and passing, and 2nd in total offense.  But Tennessee is equally amazing on defense as they rank 1st overally, 3rd in passing defense and 7th in rushing defense.  Mason Rudolph also doesn't make the stupid turnovers that Will Levis made.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Two gambling rules at odds in this one (see what I did there?).  Tampa is on a short week, but Atlanta is the road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Tamps looked pretty good at times against Baltimore, and has looked great at times this year.  Wide Receiver injuries hurt, but I will assume somebody will be able to catch the ball (Cade Otton, Richard White).

New England Patrionts +7 v. New York Jets

This fame sucks, and it sucks to try to bet.  I am just taking points here, and nothing else.

Miami Dolphins +4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played Monday night, and they have to travel east?  Plus, Tuanigaminuolepola Tagavailoa returns to spark the Dolphins offense?  And I get points?  Yes please.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Mpore of a gut feeling than anything, but Cincinnati just seem to be playing better than Philadelphia, even with their 3-4 record, whereas the Eagles haven't really looked great.

Chicago Bears +1 at Washington Commanders

I would really liked to have seen this game with Jayden Daniels starting.  Mariota is a solid veteran, but not as dynamic as Daniels, and Washingotn will need that dynamism against this Bears defense.  Damn, they just announced that Daniels is playing, and I am too lazy to change the pick.  I'll just take whatever additional 1/2 or full point is added before kickoff.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. New Orleans Saints

Too many injuries for New Orleans, even with the extra days rest from playing last Thursday.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Seattle Seahawks

The NFL's 5th highest scoring offense addes Amari Cooper with a full-practice week, so I will take Buffalo in what I expect to be a shootout.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Cheifs have been very underwhelming for an undefeated team, but that won't stop them from becoming very scary once DeAndre Hopkins works his way into this offense.  I don't expect much from him today, but the Raiders defense might!

Carolina Panthers +11 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I just really hate giving up double digits in an NFL game.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Yes, Jordan Mason is returning, but Ricky Pearsall is the healthiest receiver on San Francisco, AND HE GOT SHOT!

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Russell Wilson brings some stability to the Steelers (if not more talent than Fields), and the Giants are not very good.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

I don't like giving up points for a Big Bet, but Houston at least is at home.  I didn't like any of these games for a guarantee.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  52-49-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($240)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $545

Picks of the Week

A second consecutive 9-4-1 week.  These are the types of records I like to see!!!  Off to a bad start this week, but hopefully I can keep up the level I have been selecting recently!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Home team, short week didn't work.  Really, really didn't work.

New England Patriots +6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Wembley Stadium)

Drake Maye showed something last week, and despite New England not having a lot of offensive talent, Maye might be able to score enough against the leagues 31st scoring defense to keep this close.

Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Miami Dolphins

I really have no idea what to do with this one.  Yes, Anthony Richardson is returning, but do we really know if he is good or not?  No, we don't.  But, Tua Tagavailova is still out for Miami, so that offense hasn't shown anything since he went down with injury.  So maybe Richardson is inconsistent, but makes a few plays to win and cover.

Buffalo Bills -9 v. Tennessee Titans

The Bills have actually been struggling this year offensively; 25th in the NFL.  But, optimism is key.  And if Josh Allen is hyped due to the acquisition of Amari Cooper, that coould do a lot for this team, even if it will take Cooper a couple of weeks to get up to speed.  Interested in seeing how Tennessee's top ranked defense fares against the new look Buffalo with James Cook back and Amari Cooper suited up.

Detroit Lions + 1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

In a matchup that should be a close barnburner, I'll take points, even if it is only 1 1/2.  The over (50 1/2) should be a good play here, also.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I hate road intradivisional favorites, but Cleveland is awful and they have already traded Amari Cooper.  Could Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and/or Myles Garrett be far behind?

Houston Texans + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay's 25th ranked passing defense is their downfall here, as Houston looks to take advantage of the Packers' secondary.

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Eastern time zone home team against a Pacific time zone team in the 1:00 slot; covers over 2/3rds of the time.

New York Giants +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I do not want to take 2 intradivisional road favorites, and Cincinnati seems more likely to cover than the Eagles.  Is it possible that we have been overrating the Eagles (and Jalen Hurts?) for the past couple years?  Also feel like the Giants are not as bad as everyone thinks, either, so I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +9 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Please don't get me wrong, Washington wins this game.  It is just that 9 1/2 points seem like a lot to me.

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Too many Maxx Crosby trade rumors circulating for this Raiders team to be focused on the rest of this season.

San Francisco 49ers -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The return of Jordan Mason to the lineup should put a jolt in the San Francisco offense, at least enough to defeat a Kansas City Chiefs team lacking in firepower.  Could they be looking for a trade deadline upgrade, especially at receiver?

New York Jets -2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

At the very least Aaron Rodgers knows Davante Adams, even if Adams cannot get fully up-to-speed on the entire playbook.  The Steelers will be starting Russell Wilson, hoping they get the Wilson from 4+ years ago and not thei this year/last year version.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore is the better team here, but could Baker Mayfield exploit the one kink in the Ravens' armor - pass defense (31st in the NFL)?  They may, but Tampa's entire defense is its Achilles' heel (28th overall, 29th passing, 18th scoring).

Los Angeles Chargers -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Don't really know what it is about these Chargers, but they look like they could make a playoff run.  Number 1 scoring defense in the NFL - and 6th in total defense helps.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I hate road intradivisional favorites, but Cleveland is awful and they have already traded Amari Cooper.  Could Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and/or Myles Garrett be far behind?

I am going against everything I like to do for my big bet.  Pick home teams, that are underdogs, or only slight favorites being among them.  But, this Cleveland team is a mess.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  46-40-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 5-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $785

 

Picks of the Week

 

Finally, the type of week I have been looking for this week.  Absolutely incredible.  Hopefully that doesn't mean I fall back-down-to-earth, but so far teh London week games have been good to me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks + 4 v. San Francisco 49ers

Home team, short week didn't work.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Hopefully like last week the favorite prevails.  The Bears defense is running smoothly - 3rd in third-down percentage, fifthe in scoring, 6th in passing and 8th overall.  Is this the week Doug Pederson gets fired a al Robert Saleh?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I hate taking a road intra-divsional favorite, but we just do not know what we will be getting from Spencer Rattler making his first start.  Only reason this spread is like this.  I do have the additional incentive of picking against the team playing on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay is the third-best rushing team in the NFL, whereas Arizona is 28th in stopping the run.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee is coming off a bye and the Colts are battered.  If Will Levis can just keep from committing that one stupid turnover per game ... big If.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 v. Cleveland Browns

Is it time for the Browns to put Wyatt Teller, Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper on the trading block?  A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson return for the Eagles.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Drake Maye is getting his first start for a Patriots team that has sputtered offensively (last in passing and 31st in scoring and 31st overall).  Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson is out from the 8th ranked rushing offense.  Houston meanwhile has the 6th best offense and 4th best defense.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Washington Commanders

I really wanted to take Washington here, as I think they could give the Ravens a game.  However, Washington's offensive strength (2nd in rushing), is also Baltimore's defensive strength (1st in the NFL), and Baltimore's #1 ranked total and rushing offense could actually win the time-of-possession battle that has worked so well for Washington this year.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Both teams offenses rank very low, and both teams defenses rank pretty high, so I will take the points in an intradivisional battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

It is possible that the Raiders get a jolt from Aiden O'Connell taking the helm, but I don't think so.  I just believe this Raiders team is in disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Carolina Panthers

Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite, but the Panthers are not good; 26th in offense and 28th in defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Is it possible that the Cowboys last-minute win against the Steelers turns their season around?  Sure, but I don't believe it.  Too many injuries on the defensive line and no rushing game (31st in the NFL).

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at New York Jets

So Robert Saleh was going to demote Nathaniel Hackett.  Aaron Rodgers got wind of it and complained to the owner, who fired Robert Saleh and slapped the interim head coach tag on Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who then pulled play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett.  Huh?

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Very few solid home teams giving up very little points, so I will take Denver getting them.  My other options were Green Bay -5 1/2, Philadelphia -9, and Denver +3, but this looks the most promising.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  37-36-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $175

 

Picks of the Week

This has been an incredibly interesting, which makes for horrible gambling odds, and yours truly has been affected, just like everyone else.  Average teams, like say the Buccaneers and Jets, look amazing one week, and horrendous the next.  Why can't average teams, just play average, so that we know what is going on.  Oh well, such is life.  Another .500 week, which I would ordinarily take, but it came along with my first big bet loss, so another week in the red.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons - 2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This was an easy pick - but not an easy win.  Home team on a short week.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against New York Jets (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

The Jets defense, at least their pass defense, is starting to live up to its pre-season reputation, but unfortunately, the offense is struggling, and I don't think Aaron Rodgers (26 straight games under 300 yards passing) is the quarterback to turn this team around.  

Chicago Bears -4 v. Carolina Panthers

Yes, the Panthers seem to be much better with Andy Dalton behind center, but Carolina's bad defense may be just what Caleb Williams needs to get going after a 353 yard passing game (in a loss) followed by last week's win.  Chicago's defense is 5th in third-down percentage, which will be crucial in giving the offense as many possessions as needed.

New England Patriots +1 v. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins offens has been struggling (23rd passing, 24th rushing, 24th overally, last in points), but nowhere near as bad as New England's (31st in points, last in pass defense and overall defense).  But, then again, Miami is on a short week.  Give me the point.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville has been THE disappointment this season.  But, they have to win at some point, right?  The Jaguars have the 10th best rushing defense and are playing a Colts team without Jonathan Taylor - although Trey Sermon has a lot of talent.  Conversely the Colts are 31st in rush defense, and Tank Bigsby has been punishing defensive lines off the bench.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Houston Texans

If I told you the Bills offense was actually struggling statistically, you would not believe me, but, they are 17th in rushing, 20th in passing, and 21st overall.  But somehow, they are second in scoring.  Houston has been great against the pass (4th), but they won't be able to stop Buffalo coming off their beating at the hands of Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I really tried to find a way to select Cincinnati as a home underdog, but I just couldn't.  Baltimore will be on a roll following their thrashing of the Bills to get to 2-2 after starting 0-2.

Washington Commanders -3 v. Cleveland Browns

Washington has been playing too well - especially on offense where they are 6th overall, 3rd in scoring and 3rd in rushing offense) - to not pick them against a bad and boring Cleveland team what supposedly has Amari Cooper on the trade block.

Denver Broncos -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Denver has been playing games very close this year, even when they have looked bad.  Bo Nix looks like he has something, for sure.  The Raiders ... have a big Davante Adams problem ... and Gardner Minshew.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at San Francisco 49ers

Despite being great, San Francisco has not really overwhelmed this season, so 7 points seems like a lot of points to give to a team that looks like it has Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison, Jr. starting to click!

Seattle Seahawks -7 v. New York Giants

Seattle is on a short week, but New York is without Devin Singletary and Malik Nabors.  At least Seattle gets to stay at home.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

If the Jacksonville Jaguars did not exist, this Dallas Cowboys team would be the disappointment of the season.  Ezekial Elliott returned to the backfield and he just proved that the Cowboys were right to jettison him the first time.  Dallas hasn't run on anybody this year - last in the NFL, and Pittsburgh is tough to run on anyway (3rd best in the NFL).

Kansas City Chiefs - 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Given the Saints abilities to play to the level of their opponent, New Orleans seems like the safest bet here.  And when a bet seems too obvious, go the other way.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

I really wanted to pick Seattle here, but giving 7 points is a lot for a team on a short week.  Yes Green Bay lost last week, but Minnesota is legit, and the Rams are not.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  28-32-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($435)

 

Picks of the Week

 

This season has already been incredibly difficult, and not just for those of us who bet based on the point spread.  Ya'll really need to check on your friends that just pick winners/losers - they are not all right.  A .500 week, not great but I did win my big bet, so in the black for the week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -5 at New York Giants

My regular readers know that I hate picking a road intra-divisional favorite, and I hate picking the road team on a short week even more.  Why did I pick Dallas, then?  Well, the spread started at 6 1/2 and moved down to 5.  That means lots of money coming in on the Giants.  When that happens, go the opposite.  Didn't matter as this game pushed.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Bears offense may be generally unproductive, byt the Rams defense equally stinks.  This should provide an opportunity for the Bears to open some things up on offense and if unsuccessful, let the 7th ranked defense hold the Rams, especially since the Bears are second in 3rd down percentage defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

The NFL's number 1 defense versus the NFL's 31st ranked defense.  George Pickens with 2 touchdowns.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is expected to be active, but is he really going to be ready to play?

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is on a short week, and this Jaguars team may go down as one of the all-time disappointments in NFL history.  At least they didn't pay Trevor Lawrence recod-type money!  (Oh, never mind!)

New Orleans Saints +3 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has been a very good 1-2 team; and the Saints had one of the most impressive wins when they decimated Dallas in week 2.  This game likely turns on whether Alvin Kamara plays or not, but since he is playing right now - albeit questionable - gotta take these points.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are going to disappint until they learn: (1) To get the  ball more to Mike Evans; and (2) play Bucky Irving more in the run game.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Denver Broncos +8 at New York Jets

The Jets we expected to see under Aaron Rodgers showed up last week, and could be areal contender.  I just don't like the 8 points, and Denver dismantled Tampa Bay last week, and play Pittsburgh tight the week prior.  This could be really close.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Rookie quarterback playing in his first short week, and on the road.

San Francisco 49ers -10 v. New England Patriots

I despise taking double digit favorites, but San Francisco is coming off two straight upset losses, so they need to really take control of a game.  In addition, this Patriots team stinks.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am a big Antonio Pierce fan, and I belive him when he says he is not going to put up with the effort the Raiders gave last week; except then Davante Adams went out with a hanstring injury, and I am not sure where Las Vegas gets its offensive energy and emotion.  Cleveland is not very good either, but they overmatch the Raiders.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Justin Herbert's injury, and even though he is playing he could be hobbled.  But I also know that the Chargers have the 7th-best rushing offense in the NFL and the 6th best total defense in the NFL.  And yes, the Chiefs are 3-0, but they have not been that impressive of a 3-0 team.  Even if I win, I think this game is within a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

To me, Buffalo has been the most impressive team in the NFL this year.  But, Baltimore should be more motivated, as they NEED this game.  Yes, this early in the season and they NEED a win.  Plus, Buffalo is on a short week, of which I expect the Ravens to take advantage.

Tennessee Titans +2 /2 v. Miami Dolphins

I know what Tennessee brings to the table this year; and it isn't good.  What I don't know is what Tyler Huntley brings to the table this year.  When there is uncertainty like this, I take the points.

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Two legitimate playoff teams clashing on Monday night.  A great time to watch football.  I am taking the points with Seattle primarily because Seattle is the third-best passing offense in the league, and Detroitis 19th in pass defense.  And yes, Detroit has a great offense (4th in total offense; 4th in rushing offense; 7th in passing offense), but Seattle is second in total defense (1st in passing defense).  I'll take the points.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Although I am not sold on Carolina overall, for my big bet I like to take a home team whenever possible, and if they are getting points even better.  I thought about the Chargers for that reason, but I don't like betting big against Patrick Mahomes.  I also considered Philadelphia, but that violates both of my preferences.  Five points is a decent amount, so I make this bet, hope and believe that Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson provide the Red Rifle with as much support as he needs, and trust that Cincy's short week hurts them.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  21-25-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $70

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($200)

 

Picks of the Week

So it only took until Week 2 for me to have my first horrendous week.  Thank goodness for the Big Bet!  But, I am not alone, as tons of people worldwide suffered last week.  If you are in a Survivor Pool, odds are, you are out.  Something like 25% of all people in Survivor Pools hosted by known and available sites (like ESPN, CBS, etc.) remain after two weeks.  That is ridiculous, and that is just picking winners, not even accounting for the spread.  Let's see if we can have a bounce back week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +6 1/2 at New York Jets

I had no allusions that the Patriots would win this game, but the Jets had looked underwhelming, at best, in the first two weeks, to the point where I was wondering if they might just be overrated.  They handled their business.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

They have to start playing offense at some point, right?  And, if there was any time to try to limit the pressure on Caleb Williams and run the ball, it would be this week against the team last in the NFL in rushing defense, giving up 237 yards per game so far, and, with star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner out for the game.  Caleb Williams also throws his first touchdown pass today, and the Bears defense remains at a high level.  Anthony Richardson can make big plays with his arm and legs, but he is also erratic with his arm, and this Bears secondary is no joke.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 v. Denver Broncos

I know the Broncos are rocking with a rookie quarterback and they will experience growing pains, but they have no identity on offense.  Their defense has been pretty stout to start the season, but one of those games was against the Steelers.  Baker Mayfield is playing at a high, high level, and the Bucs will score against Denver.

Houston Texans -2 at Minnesota Vikings

This is an incredibly difficult line, as both teams are playing well to start the season.  Sam Darnold is turning out better than almost everyone thought so far, but Houston's defense is imporved to an elite level like its offense.  I don't like giving up points on the road, but I will here.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This game is also difficult to pick, but for much different reasons, primarily that Justin Herbert is a game-time decision, and the report from Adam Shefter just now is that we still don't know if he will play, and won't know until the Chargers take the field.  So, I just have to take a deep breath, block out all of the noise, and realize that the betting rules say to take the east coast home team against a Pacific time zone team in the 1:00 game slot anyway, so I am .

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

My initial thought was to take the points and the Eagles, given that the Eagles must be so angry at how their Monday Night game against the Falcons ended.  Then I realized that ... the Eagles played Monday night!!!  This is a short week.  This is a great time to pick the resurrected career of Derek Carr!

Green Bay Packers +3 at Tennessee Titans

Green Bay bounced back from their Week 1 loss to the Eagles with a Week 2 win against the Colts, and I am not sure what either of those mean.  What I am sure of is that Tennessee lost to both the Bears and the Jets, and they are giving points today.  Green Bay controls the clock, and the game, and probably wins outright.

Cleveland Browns -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Both offenses are BAD!  New York's defense is BAD!  Cleveland's defense is meh.  I feel like this should be a lower line, but I am going to give the points anyway, because I just have a feeling that this Giants team is going backwards, fast.

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Miami Dolphins2

The Dolphins defense is legitmiate, and defense always travels.  The problem is that an offense led by Skylar Thompson probably doesn't - even with weapons like Devon Achane and Tyreek Hill.  Seattle is also out Kenneth Walker, but relying on Geno Smith is much easier to do than to rely on Skylar Thompson.

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Is it possible that the move from Bryce Young to the experienced Andy Dalton does allow the Panthers' offense to coalesce a bit around its established players and finally get Diontae Johnson involved, of course.  Am I betting that this time is not a total trainwreck?  No, I am not.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Dallas Cowboys

A team as talented as this Ravens squad cannot start the season 0-3 right?  RIGHT?

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

I am getting points for a home team in an intradivisional rivalry game where the visiting team is missing its starting running back, starting wide receiver, and starting tight end, all of whom are in the tops at their position in the league.  I still think that with Jordan Mason, the 49ers can win this game, but 6 1/2 points seems a bit much.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played fantastic against the Rams last week, and host Detroit who lost a game the team thinks it should have won last week against the Buccaneers.  Will that make Detroit more motivated?  Of course - I mean it has Dan Campbell.  That extra fire in the game is what compels this road win.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It might be soul-searching time for the Jaguars vis-a-vis a decision about what to do with this squad going forward.  Do they have talent?  Absolutely.  Is some of that talent as good as they are being paid?  Absolutely not.  And the team has put together a mish-mash of offensive talent that doesn't necessarily jell together.  But, you know what team knows exactly who they are?  The Buffalo Bills.

Washington Commanders +7 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati should win this game, and maybe even handily.  But, there are a lot of things that look good for Washington going forward ... Jayden Daniels looks like he belongs, he is due for his first passing touchdown, and McLaurin needs to break open for the rookie to have a true #1 target.  All of these happen late in the fourth quarter for a back-door cover!

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

I generally prefer home teams for my Big Bet, and I also prefer them receiving points, or it being a close point spread, but this bet is too good to pass up.  The Kansas City offense revolves around Patrick Mahomes, so the Isaiah Pacheco injury isn't going to hurt too much.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week.  I feel confident that the Chiefs can outgun Atlanta, even with their injuries.

Record

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  13-17-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($270)