Picks of the Week

It is the heart of the season where teams make a playoff push, or fall, and bettors make money, or lose.  Time to button-up and get some wins.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The first game between these two teams was an overtime barnburner, but this time around is a short week for the visting Bengals.  Still managed to take it down to the wire.

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany

Carolina is embarrasing - so let's send them overseas.

Chicago Bears -6 v. New England Patriots

Perhaps this bet is just hopeful.

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

This might just be the defense that Caleb Williams needs to right the ship and prove that he is improving in his rookie season.  This is not the defense Drake Maye wants to see right now, even though he has shown promise in his few starts.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

West coast team traveling east versus team on a short week. So, there is no good bet here.  I am taking the team with returning playmakers (McCaffrey and Jennings), versus the team without them (Godwin and Evans).

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I would feel much better if this was a 6 1/2 point spread, as this is a divisional game, but DeAndre Hopkins makes this Chiefs offense way scarier, as defenses had focused on Travis Kelce, and now they can't.  Plus, the Chiefs deense has been outstanding (2nd overall, 3rd against the rush, and 4th in scoring).

Buffalo Bills -4 at Indianapolis Colts

For all of the blame that Indy's offense, particularly Anthony Richardson, has taken this year, the Colts' defense is 30th in total defense, 26th in passing, 31st in rushing, and 24th in 3rd down percentage.  Just what Josh Allen needs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Washington Commanders

The marquee game of the week.  Really just playing a hunch here, given Brian Robinson is out for Washington.

Minnesota Vikings -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota as a road favorite this high is tough, but Jacksonville's defense is 31st in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (and 30th in scoring defense), not good when going against Justin Jefferson.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Another big spread, but at least this time at home.  Chargers are the stingiest team to score against, and Tennessee rarely scores (27th in NFL).

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia has won 4 in a row, and the Cowboys are without Dak Prescott, and CeeDee Lamb is hobbled.

New York Jets -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Just a hunch honestly, based on the Jets defense (2nd in passing, 6th in total defense, 10th in scoring defense).

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins would be a great return for this Texans, but he still might not be up-to-speed, and this Lions team is humming with 6 wins in a row.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The Rams are on a 3-game winning streak, and get to host the struggling Dolphins at home.  Can the Rams defense (24th against the run) slow down Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert?  Enough, yes, given that the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have made this offense way more potent than its ranking (18th).

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

When you take a lot of favorites, you have to select a big bet giving points, and 3 1/2 is not that much given how easily I think the Falcons will win.  It has taken a while for the defense - and all its new members - to gel, but Justin Simmons and the other new Falcons are certainly coming around.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-66-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-3

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($355)

Picks of the Week

I still don't know if that Space Force team is any good (way too inside of a joke.)  Anyway, albeit small, another winning week.  I will keep taking wins over losses.  No more byes means 16 games from here through the end of the regular season.  Hope that is a good thing.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Yes, San Francisco is waaaaay better, and yes Seattle has fallen off a cliff.  But man, I didn't realize the cliff was THAT high.  Well, home team on a short week isn't a 100% lock (although hopefully the rule occurs a lot more this week - foreshadowing.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota took it on the chin last week, but a loss to Detroit is not the laugher that it ordinarily was.  Indianapolis' defense is pretty stout (5th overall), but they give up points (21st).  Minnesota is looking to clinch the division, and is at home on this Saturday game.  Interesting note, for teams that have Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook, they are horrible at rushing the ball (Colts - 26th/Vikings - 27th.)

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

I do not like this line at all.  But, the rules are there for a reason, take the home team on a short week.  Although not impressive Tyler Huntley has been more than serviceable, and even beat Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh last week - with the Steelers playing much tougher since TJ Watt has returned.  Nevertheless, and despite the San Francisco win, or perhaps because of it, I will stay with the home team and just not like the pick.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes Miami beat the Bills last time they played, but did you watch the game?  The Bills beat the pants off of Miami, they just didn't win.  Plus, being a Saturday night game, another short week/home team bet.  I would have liked this spread to have been about 4 1/2 or 5 though.

Chicago Bears +9 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Only because the Bears should be rested after a bye week.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

You cannot get much worse that Atlanta's passing offense (31st in passing; 28th overall), but then you insert a rookie quarterback.  Good luck Desmond Ridder.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 v. Dallas Cowboys

Jacksonville has been playing well of late and Trevor Lawrence (passer rating of 95.4) is starting to emerge as the franchise quarterback that the Jaguars thought they were drafting.  Dallas may still win this, but it should be close.

Detroit Lions + 1/2 at New York Jets

Zach Wilson!!!  Yes the Jets defense might be good enough to slow down the Lions, but I do not think the Jets offense is good enough to score - well, at least not score enough (Insert generic Zach Wilson's mom's friend joke here!)

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

I honestly don't know what to do here.  The Steelers defense have been playing amazing the last 3 weeks, giving up 16, 16 and 17 points, but Sam Darnold has also been playing well.  Kenny Pickett is doubtful, but does that make Pittsburgh better, or worse?  In a tough betting situation, I take the points.

Houston Texans + 14 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs, even in winning, have looked a bit sluggish.  The chance to clinch the division notwithstanding, I am not sure what this game with Houston really means to them.  I am not saying Houston will win, but more than two touchdowns is a lot of points when betting.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 v. New England Patriots

Las Vegas has won 3 of the last 4, and only lost by one in last week's loss to the Rams.  New England is playing on a short week, having beaten Arizona on Monday night.

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona Cardinals are on a short week, and it looks like a Brett Rypien-Colt McCoy matchup to miss.  Whatever the under is - TAKE IT!  Even if it is 12.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Tennessee Titans

This team is SOOOOO much different - and better - with Mike Williams on the field, not to mention Mike Williams and Keenan Allen!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I am surprised that the Florida Gator fans in central/southwest Florida are not clamoring for Kyle Trask yet.  Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are both questionable, but with J'Marr Chase playing, if only one of them plays, Tampa could be in for a loooooong day.

New York Giants +4 1/2 at Washington Commanders

I fully expect the Commanders to win this game and eventually make the playoffs.  However, these teams did just play to a 20-20 tie two weeks ago.  With the Giants getting routed last week by Philly, and the Commanders coming off their bye, I expect this not to be a tie, but a 3-point win for Washington.

Los Angeles Rams +7 at Green Bay Packers

I am not saying that Baker Mayfield is the end-all/be-all for the Rams.  But, he is more exciting than John Wolford, and Baker has a full week of practice.  Plus, there is no way that this line should be a full touchdown.  That is the ridiculous part - even if Green Bay wins.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota took it on the chin last week, but a loss to Detroit is not the laugher that it ordinarily was.  Indianapolis' defense is pretty stout (5th overall), but they give up points (21st).  Minnesota is looking to clinch the division, and is at home on this Saturday game.  Interesting note, for teams that have Jonathan Taylor and Dalvin Cook, they are horrible at rushing the ball (Colts - 26th/Vikings - 27th.)

I am getting the big bet out-of-the-way early.  This is my big bet because Minnesota is likely angry, they can clinch the division, and the "Noon Nightmare" will have a huge game.

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  104-96-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($155)

Picks of the Week

My head is still spinning from the tumultuous Space Force - Coast Guard college game last night.  If you don't know - ask me about it.  Hope I can get that conversation out of my head and concentrate on today's game to keep up my winning streak, as last week was very good!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Los Angeles Rams + 6 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Baker Mayfield comeback notwithstanding, home team on a short week wins again.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh has won 3 of its last 4, and Baltimore is without Lamar Jackson.  Pittsburgh has been playing a lot better since T.J. Watt returned.

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville is better offensively than the Titans (11th to 29th), and even in rushing (10th to 15th), and exactly the same defensively (both T25th overall).  Sounds like I will take the points in what should be a close game.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at New York Giants

The third overall offense and the 2nd overall defense versus the Giants, who are in the bottom third of each.  Philly rolls.

New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills

Double digits is a big spread against a team that has recently made a dramatic upgrade at quarterback in Mike White, and which beat the Bills just over a mvonth ago.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 v. Cleveland Browns

DeShaun Watson looked pedestrian against the Texans last week.  Another week of practice should help, but playing the Bengals will not.  Joe Burrow leads a Cincinnati team that is 4th in passing to a bunch of scores.

Houston Texans +17 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I really want to take the Cowboys here just to say I did, but if I lost because Houston covers, I would be kicking myself.  If I lose this bet as it stands, I still stand by my bet.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Denver Broncos

The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring, whereas Denver doesn't score.  This might be a bit too many points for a divisional rival, though, so I don't feel safe with this one.

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brock Purdy looked pretty good last week, but more importantly, Tampa Bay played Monday night.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I bet Carolina wishes they had a quarterback as good as Geno Smith.  Hell, I bet they wish they had a quarterback as good as Baker Mayfield.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I wonder how the travel of the last two weeks affects the Dolphins (they played at San Francisco last week).  They are still better than the Chargers and their 27th ranked defense, so the Dolphins' 4th ranked total offense should move the ball and score.

New England Patriots -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

I honestly cannot believe I am giving up points here, but the Patriots are on a two-game losing streak, and who thinks Belichick loses three in a row?  Also, the Patriots defense is solid (7th in total defense, T7th in scoring defense), whereas Arizona is next-to-last in giving up points.

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

This pick literally pains me, as I have been a huge proponent of betting on the Lions, but, in this case they are giving up points.  In the 1:p.m. game slot, the Noon Nightmare strikes again.

Last Week's Record:  9-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  96-91-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($240)