Picks of the Week

 

Another week in the black!!!  Not enough to erase the deficit from a couple of weeks ago, but one winning week away from making it a streak.  Let's start that streak this weekend!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Green Bay Packers

Home team on a short week; and the Lions really wanting to prove something given that they eeked out a Thanksgiving Day win against Chicago.

Atlanta Falcons +6 at Minnesota Vikings

Atlanta has lost w in a row, and I do not expect them to end that streak, but Minnesota has played in a lot of one-possession games recently, and the one that wasn't, they only scored 23 against the Titans.  I expect this to be close, with Kirk Cousins and the 5th ranked passing offense keeping Atlanta in the game against the 28th ranked passing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

I feel like the Jaguars offense played okay under Mac Jones after Trevor Lawrence went out last week, but not sure this Titans defense is where a backup quarterback can thrive.

New Orleans Saints -5 at New York Giants

At 4-8 the Saints are only two games off the NFC South lead; at 2-10 the Giants are staring at Shadeur Sanders or Cam Ward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Mike Evans is a go, and besides, the Buccaneers are 6th in passing even having lost Godwin for the year and Evans for a bunch of games.  Plus, the Raiders are playing in the 1:00 window after travelling from the Pacific Time Zone.  The winner of this game should be called the Pittsburgh Pirates for the next year.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland defeated the Steelers in Cleveland just two weeks ago; and they took the Broncos to the brink on Monday night.  But that is the problem - it was Monday, meaning they are on a short week.  I think Pittsburgh remembers that loss and will want to avenge it.

Carolina Panthers +14 at Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are way better than the Panthers, but in Carolina's last 4 games they have won 2 and lost by 3 and 3 in the other two.  This spread looks a bit high.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. New York Jets

Miami has to win out for the opportunity to make the playoffs, and in the span of their last 5 games, they have the Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns, and Jets.  Don't know how all 5 of the games are going to go, but this week New York is without Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner, so it should start off well for Miami.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

New interim head coach Thomas Brown takes over for deposed Matt Eberflus, but what hasn't changed is that the Bears have covered against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions in consecutive weeks.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle can add to its one-game lead in the west over the Cardinals (and the Rams).  This game seems really close on paper, and when it is close - I take the points.

Los Angeles Rams +3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This pick is just a hunch, as I think Buffalo might suffer from a bit of a letdown after clinching the AFC East last week.

Los Angeles Chargers +4 at Kansas City Chiefs

Despite their 11-1 record, Kansas City has not really blown anyone away.  The spreads in the last few games:  W2, W3, L9, W2, W6, W7.  If they win this game, this trend will continue; and a good chance exists that they may not even win this game.

Dallas Cowboys +5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I expect a shootout Monday night as Cincinnati is the #1 ranked passing team in the NFL, and surprisingly, Dallas is 7th.  Cincinnati's pass defense is 27th whereas Dallas's is a respecatble 13th.  What does this all mean?  A passing shootout.  Dallas may not win, but this game should be fun and close.

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

New interim head coach Thomas Brown takes over for deposed Matt Eberflus, but what hasn't changed is that the Bears have covered against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions in consecutive weeks.

I am going with the fired coach effect here.  The Bears were close in many games before Eberflus was fired; and they might just win this one outright.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  93-95-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($775)

Picks of the Week

HOORAY!!!  THE NFL is back.  And for what it's worth, it starts with what is expected to be a humdinger of a game as the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, host the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last year's AFC title game.  So, not only is this game important for bragging rights among the NFL's elite, but could also be important for home-field advantage in the playoffs.  Love the NFL, and I am so happyit is back!  Let's get to the games ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

No short week, since this is week 1, so the home team rule doesn't apply.  Plus, there is usually a bit of  a Super Bowl hangover, especially when the quarterback doesn't really yet know his new receivers, plus a rookie left tackle.  And, the best way to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs is to control the ball and win the time of possession.  Enter Derrick Henry.

Philadelphia Eagles - 2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers (in Sao Paulo, Brazil)

The NFL's first game in Brazil, and it's on a Friday.  Excitement, excitement.  Plus, the soccer team that generally plays its home games in the stadium in which this game will be played has a rival which primarily wears green.  Yeah, this is going to be great.  Adding Saquon Barkley - if truly healthy - to this Eagles offense makes them super scary.  They win big.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

New quarterback in Caleb Williams, along with a revamped offense which sees DeAndre Swift, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining D.J. Moore as offensive weapons makes this team incredibly hopeful for a playoff run, similar to the Texans of last season.  To do that, they have to win at home against a Titans team that lost Derrick Henry, and might just be drifting listlessly in mediocrity.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

A new head coach that might actually use Bijan Robinson against a defense that despite T.J. Watt's numbers was actually pretty poor last year?  Yes, please.  Sprinkle in a little "Noon Nightmare" now starting at quarterback for Atlanta in Kirk Cousins.

Minnesota Vikings -1 1/2 at New York Giants

I hate road favorites, but this line is too small too worry about that.  I might be the only one that thinks Sam Darnold showed that he is an actual NFL quarterback in Carolina for a bit (not a star mind you, but serviceable), and sometimes all you need to be is serviceable with Justin Jefferson on the end of your passes.  I think the Giants could be one of the worst teams in the league this year, and this game could show whether that is true or no.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

I think this game could be really close, so I am taking the points.  Both teams have a lot of offensive firepower, and some studs on defense.  The Dolphins secondary with Jalen Ramsey, Kendell Fuller, Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland are among the best, if not the best, in the NFL.  The newly glossed Josh Hines-Allen IS one of the best defenders in the NFL for Jacksonville.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 1/2 v. New England Patriots

There is absolutely no reason to watch this game unless you have money on it or play fantasy.  Cincinnati should roll.  Do not let J'Marr Chase's practice holdout worry you.  He can go!

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

West coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time zones fail to cover 2/3rds of the time.  And yes, Arizona is only in the Mountain Time Zone, except they do not use Daylight Savings Time, so they are 3 hours behind.  I am interested in watching both rookie wide receivers:  Marvin Harrison, Jr. for Arizona and Keon Coleman for Buffalo.

Houston Texans -3 at Indianapolis Colts

Week 1 and I am already breaking a traditional NFL gambling rule - don't bet a road favorite in an intradivisional game.  However, I am doing this BECAUSE it is week 1, and that is where we can most take advantage of undervalue (or overvalued lines).  Houston added Danielle Hunter to an already potent defensive line, which could make Anthony Richardson rush throws - and we already know from college he can be incredibly inaccurate.  Plus, it is week 1, which makes it waaaaay too early for Stefon Diggs to start ruining a team's season.  That usually starts around week 11.

Carolina Panthers +4 at New Orleans Saints

This bet is not so much aboute Carolina improving - although they should (I mean, they HAVE to, right?) - as much as I do not think New Orleans is going to be good at all.  I mean, they have like only 6 or 7 players that any other team might want.  I feel I would take the points in this game, no matter which team was receiving them.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I really have no idea what this year has in store for either of these teams.  Just taking the home team, really, because Justin Herbert has to be better than Gardner Minshew, right?

Seattle Seahawks -6 v. Denver Broncos

There are a lot of people high on the Denver Broncos, especially given Bo Nix's preseason.  Most of those people are intrigued by his fantasy numbers, and not necessarily the actual football games.  I will wait for a few games unitl I consider myself impressed yet.  For now, I'll just say that Patrick Surtain II cannot cover DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, AND Jaxson Smith-Njigba.  Denver is going to have to improve a defense that gave up a million yards and 1,300 points to the Bears and Dolphins last year (please not hyperbole).

Washington Commanders +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Another hyped rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, takes the helm for the Commanders.  Washington played a ton of close games last year, while throwing more pass attempts than any team in the league.  Daniels can make things happen with his legs should a pass attempt break down, and he is incredibly accurate.  Like all rookie quarterbacks, he will have some setbacks, but I think he keeps this game close, at least.

Dallas Cowboys + 3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Forget playoff failures, this Cowboys team does have talent; and certainly enough talent to win this game outright, so I'll take points.

Detroit Lions -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

This Detroit Lions team seems poised to make a jump to Super Bowl contender this year, and has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.  The Rams have some star skill position players in Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua, and the venerable Matthew Stafford throwing to them, and they are going to need to score as many points as they can given their (lack of) defensive makeup.  Aaron Donald, in the conversation as the greatest DT ever, retired, and it is going to be hard to find a replacement for that push up the middle.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 v. New York Jets

Until we see otherwise, San Francisco is a definitive pick most weeks.  The Jets defense can be outstanding, and Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are potential stars on the offensive side of the ball.  Can Aaron Rodgers stay on the field for more than a quarter AND keep his mouth shut?  We shall see.

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

New quarterback in Caleb Williams, along with a revamped offense which sees DeAndre Swift, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining D.J. Moore as offensive weapons makes this team incredibly hopeful for a playoff run, similar to the Texans of last season.  To do that, they have to win at home against a Titans team that lost Derrick Henry, and might just be drifting listlessly in mediocrity.

I am all in on this team for this game:  Home game hype, #1 overall draft pick QB hype, tons of offensive weapons, and a team defense that was the best in the NFL once Head Coach Matt Eberflus took over play-calling in the middle of the season and Montez Sweat came over from the Commanders in a mid-season trade.  If Sweat can get any modicum of pressure from the other side of the line via DeMarcus Walker or rookie fifth-round pick Austin Booker, opposing offenses will have to look out all season.

As this is week 1, I present to you last season's final tally.

Last Year's Recap

Year-to-Date Record:  169-128-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-13
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $200.50

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,355.50

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,450.50

Record

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):