Picks of the Week - Week 3

 

First crashout week of the season for me - and virtually every person that selects the entire slate.  At the very least I won my NFL confidence pool (which is straight up/with confidence points assigned to each pick).  Let's move on and try to learn from last week.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Home team/short week.  But, apparently I overestimated how bad Atlanta was, as they are a different team with Michael Penix.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Double digits are always big concerns, especially on the road, but I am just going to bet against the Dolphins until the start covering.

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

No way the Browns show up like they did last week in consecutive games.  Carolina could be in the playoffs this year.

Tennessee Titans +2 1/2 at New York Giants

Not just because of the Jaxson Dart injury, as Jameis Winston can sling the ball and make games interesting, but the Giants are going to have to do this on a short week.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

This is essentially a pick 'em, as Jacksonville is only giving points because they are the home team.  And, I have picked three road teams already this week, so given that this is a toss-up - I'll take the home team.

Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers may already be done this season, and Harbaugh may be done as the head coach, but they just don't know it yet (Schrodinger's coach, anyone?)  And to top it all off, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team playing in the 1:00 slot on the east coast.  I'll take the team playing the best in this game, too - Buffalo.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

I don't like this line at all, but Detroit IS the better team, even though the Jets are clearly improved (but that isn't saying much).

Houston Texans -1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I am violating the NFL gambling rules here - by takin a road intra-divisional favorite, but I cannot pick the Colts with such a small spread.

Seatle Seahawks -7 1/2 at Washington Commanders

West coast team playing in the 1:00 slot on the east coast, but Sam Darnold is returning, and Jayden Daniels is not.  This game could get ugly.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Another road favorite in an intra-divisional game, but I have to do something to counteract last week's results.  It seems like violating the gambling rules might be the way to go, especially with Aaron Rodgers playing worse than Jordan Rodgers.

 

San Francisco 49ers -7 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco is just playing better than anyone else in the NFL through the first two weeks, and that team should annihilate Arizona.

Minnesota Vikings -1 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay may not score.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders ARE 2-0, but they still have not looked as good as New Orleans and the Tyler Shough to Chris Olave combination.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 versus Dallas Cowboys in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Baltimore rebounds from the loss to the Saints in a big way.

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are on a short week, and at altitude.  That has to have some affect, right?

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I do not necessarily think that the Bears are going to win here, but with their running game, they can keep it close, especially if Case Keenum ends up getting the start!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers -7 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

San Francisco is just playing better than anyone else in the NFL through the first two weeks, and that team should annihilate Arizona.

I am not going to lie, most of my favorite picks are visiting teams, and I absolutely had to have a visiting team as my "Big Bet."  I also don't like giving up more than a TD for my Big Bet, but this is the home team that I like the best, so go 49ers.

Results: 

Last Week Record: 5-11

Last Week Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 14-17-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-1

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($875)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($485)

Picks of the Week - Week 2

 

Wow - It is so good to have the NFL back, especially after a good start for your boy in Week 1.  Sadly, I am unable to watch a lot of the games today, but happy to be celebrating a wedding with family.  No matter the occasion, still gotta get the picks in.  LET'S GO!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I know it is only the second week, and the players are not as run down and hurt as they will be later in the season, but gotta start early - home team/short week!  It paid off.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

That Bears offense sure looked amazing in putting up 59 against Carolina last week, on 569 total yards.  The vaunted Vikings defense gave up 453 to the Packers.  If Chicago's defense can make a couple of key plays at key times, this game could get out-of-control.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Tennessee Titans

Have the Titans even started their regular season yet?  Sure looked like they were still ironing out kinks - HUGE KINKS - last week.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots

One thing we absolutely CANNOT do, is overreact to week 1; and although I did expect some regression from the Patriots this year, I did not expect them to look THAT bad against the Seahawks.  But, Pepster you say, the Seahawks are the defending Super Bowl Champs.  My response is - Drew Lock didn't lead that championship.  Not sure Pittsburgh wins this, but pretty sure Aaron Rodgers can keep it close.

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I hated to pick an intra-divisional road favorite, but the Falcons could be one of the four worst teams in the NFL (with the Browns, Titans, and Dolphins.)  Who will win the "March for Arch?"  Won't be decided this week, but Carolina should pick up a key divisional win.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets picked up a win last week, but I am not going to overreact to a win against the Titans.  Geno Smith is a settling hand, and this team could surprise some people, but I do not expect that to happen this week.

New Orleans Saints +8 at Baltimore Ravens

I actually think New Orleans could win its division this week.  Seriously.  Don't think they win this week, but this game seems like a Shough-Olave backdoor cover touchdown in the final two minutes.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Houston Texans

Buffalo is going to do what it did to Houston (and subsequently to Detroit) to a lot of teams, so I am not yet worried about Houston.  But I do think that Cincinnati might be ready to make some noise.  At the risk of being redundant from last week, the two new DTs in Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen may just give enough oomph to the defense to allow the offense to score enough to win games - or in this case - at least keep in close.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

I am actually not that sold on Tampa this year, but until this DeShaun Watson debacle ends and Shadeur Sanders gives this team a puncher's chance - the Browns are going to be UGLY!!!  And just as I typed this, I see a report that the "Browns are re-evaluating the QB position ahead of their home opener, but that is next week.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos

Jacksonville has a chance to cement its place as Buffalo's biggest contender in the AFC (with Baltimore), A couple of years ago Jacksonville had to have been considering whether Trevor Lawrence was really it for them; hint ... he is.  Plus, Denver is on a short week.

 

Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I am willing to overlook the Chargers opening-week loss to Arizona as a product of perhaps them overlooking the Cardinals.  But it is getting close to the time for the Chargers to really think if they can move forward with Justin Herbert or try to use him in the offseason to jump-start a rebuild - especially with this QB class coming into the NFL next year.  Is he an upper-level NFL starter?  Absolutely.  Is he the one to carry the team to the Super Bowl?  Meh ....

Arizona Cardinals +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

I think Seattle is the best team here.  I am not overrating Arizona based on its week 1 win over the Chargers.  But you know I hate road intra-divisional favorites, and I already picked one this week.  Maybe Drew Lock regresses this week to, well, Drew Lock.  Seattle 21-20?

San Francisco 49ers -13 v. Miami Dolphins

The team that looked the best last week hosting the team that looked the best of the bottom-dwellers?  Double-digit spreads always scare me, but I am not hesitating on this one.

Washington Commanders +4 at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas's new-look defense has not quite jelled yet, to say the least, and the Commanders played the Eagles close on the road last week.  I expect another close divisional game.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 v. Indianapolis Colts

I know that Kansas City is on a short week, but there should be REAL concern in Indianapolis about: (a) this team in general; and (b) that acquiring Kenneth Walker by the Chiefs may have been the BEST offseason move of any team!

New York Giants +7 at Los Angeles Rams

Again, we should not overreact too much to one week's games, but this Giants team might be good.  Not great, but good to very good.  The Rams looked sluggish, and Puka Nacua might be out for Monday night.  Even if he is not out, he might be limited.  I'll take a TD.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Tennessee Titans

Have the Titans even started their regular season yet?  Sure looked like they were still ironing out kinks - HUGE KINKS - last week.

This violates my own personal rules regarding selecting Big Bets:  Try to pick a home team, if you pick an away team, be getting points, or at least giving up less than a FG.  But, this is the Titans, and both the Browns and Dolphins are getting more than the 7 Tennessee is getting in this game.  Gotta go against the really bad teams until proven otherwise.

Results: 

Last Week Record: 9-6-1

Last Week Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 9-6-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-0

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $390

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): $390

Picks of the Week - Week 1

WE ARE BACK BABY!!!  The NFL, and NFL gambling!!!  The time when it is absolutely OK to igore everything else going on in your life from Thursday through Monday!!!  Every NFL Fanbase is overly excited about their chances of winning a Super Bowl (except the Dolphins fans in one of my group chats who are still discussing why the OVER on 4 1/2 wins could never happen this year), and every gambler is overly excited about their chances of winning a mint!  Your boy took a bath last year - and this year will be the time to make it up.  Anyway, we love this time of year, and you can expect this weekly column to be posted throughout the season.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. New England Patriots

Yes A.J. Brown is a huge upgrade to the Patriots offense, but they also experienced losses on defense.  I expect a regression.  Too bad this ended in a push.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. San Francisco 49ers in Melbourne, Australia

Whoops!

Chicago Bears -3 at Carolina Panthers

Ben Johnson has stated that he not only wants his Bears to win, but he wants them to set all-time NFL offensive records.  This first game is an opportunity to start on the right foot toward that goal.

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Indianapolis Colts

No real understanding of this line, other than I think the Ravens have A LOT to prove this year after last season's collapse.  We will see if that is true today, as the Colts also collapsed at the end of last season.  Is Daniel Jones really that important?

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 v. Atlanta Falcons

I truly don't believe that this iteration of the Steelers is going to be good.  But, they are not starting Cooper Rush!

Jacksonville Jaguars -8 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

A big number, but I am not sure what the Browns organization saw in DeShaun Watson this preseason.  Sanders would at least give them a puncher's chance.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don't fully trust Tampa.  It is entirely possible that Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen being inserted as DTs completely revamp this defense!

Tennessee Titans -1 1/2 v. New York Jets

Going to be a loooooooong season for both of these teams.  Carnell Tate may just be exactly what Cam Ward needs to take another step!

New Orleans Saints +6 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Detroit can - and will score.  However, I think Tyler Shough is going to be a whole lot better than people expect, and his connection with Chris Olave down the stretch last year gives the Saints fans a lot of hope.

Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 at Houston Texans

The Texans defense still looks like the Texans defense - which is dangerous to the rest of the NFL.  The Bills have added steady and underrated star D.J. Moore, which should open things up for Josh Allen, open up holes for James Cook AND open up the deep ball for Khalil Shakir.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Will the Cardinals just start Carson Beck already.  They need to see if they should target a QB in next year's draft or not.  Because when they lose and if they find out Beck is viable as an NFL starter - their high pick will get them a haul in a trade package!

Green Bay Packers +2 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Only because divisional rivalries in opening week are crazy to predict - so I want the points.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Miami Dolphins

Kirk Cousins actually brings a steady hand to the Raiders offense, and might help Ashton Jeanty the jolt he needs toward stardom.  The Dolphins might be competitive, but likely will not win a lot this year.

Washington Commanders +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I don't think Washington wins this, but first-week intra-divisional games can be tricky, and this spread is bigger than the points I took with Green Bay.  Out of respect for Jayden Daniels I will just say the spread is 6.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at New York Giants

Taking a road intra-divisional favorite in a week in which I have taken all of the underdogs in the intra-divisional games.  Why?  The Cowboys have a tremendous offense, but after losing Micah Parsons to a trade last season, they have added Malachi Lawrence and Caleb Downs to the defense via the draft, and Dee Winters, Rashan Gary via free agency and trade respectively with Von Miller being added as a situational pass rusher.  They have gone all-in on this iteration of Dak Prescott's offense.  If they don't win this game, the whole season becomes a huge question mark.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Jaylen Waddle is a big addition for the Broncos, but I don't expect he will have the impact of Kenneth Walker on the Chiefs offense, who have had decent running backs during Patrick Mahomes' tenure - but nothing like what Walker brings to the table.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don't fully trust Tampa.  It is entirely possible that Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen being inserted as DTs completely revamp this defense!

I really think that the push up the middle from Lawrence and Allen will make rushing the ball really difficult for Tampa Bay, while also pressuring Baker Mayfield and keeping him from stepping into the pocket.  Plus, Burrow, Chase, Higgins, and Brown are ready to explode!

Last Season's Tallies, with the "Last Week Record" being the Super Bowl. 

 

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet:  3-1

Playoff Record: 26-24

Playoff Big Bet:  5-5

Year-to-Date Record: 152-164-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 11-17

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $975

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $521.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,478.20)

NFL Picks of the Week - Final Tally!!!!

 

So the Super Bowl is over and congratulations to the champions Seattle Seahawks.  More importantly, I had a winning Super Bowl weekend to cut into (a little bit) this travesty of a football season.  Here are the final results from Super Bowl week as well as the season!

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet:  3-1

Playoff Record: 26-24

Playoff Big Bet:  5-5

Year-to-Date Record: 152-164-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 11-17

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $975

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $521.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,478.20)

Picks of the Week - Super Bowl Sunday!

 

An absolute shambles of a season, and I do not expect this Super Bowl to be any different.  Hoping to find some really good-looking prop bets to try to salvage something for the year!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 1/2 V. Seattle Seahawks

Let's be honest here, Seattle is by far the better team.  But, New England does have a really good defense of its own (4th in Scoring Defense, 8th in Total Defense).  And, given that this spread moved an extra point overnight in Seattle's favor, I will take it.

 

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

New England Patriots versus Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45 1/2

Tough - and I mean Tough defenses.  Both of their averages on the season total 36 points given up.

Charlie Puth National Anthem UNDER 119 minutes

Why not?!

Interception on Playing Starting in the Red Zone -160 (Bet $160 to win $100)

Had to take this bet given the Super Bowl history between the two teams.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Kayshon Boutte OVER 2 1/2 receptions

Somebody will have to catch the ball, and I expect the Seahawks will take away Stefon Diggs as much as possible.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 4 1/2 rushing yards

Seattle will find ways to utilize this weapon, and a couple of jet sweeps might do it.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 32 1/2 receiving + rushing yards

See above.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Total Field Goals Made OVER 3 1/2

See above!

Hunter Henry OVER 38 1/2 receiving yards

A lot of checkdowns today!

Trayveon Henderson OVER 4 Receiving yards

This could be just one reception!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Seattle is THE best team today, and it isn't even close.  The Patriots barely beat the Broncos with Jarrett Stidham starting at QB.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Last Week Record: 5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 18-18 

Playoff Big Bet:  2-4

Year-to-Date Record: 144-158-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 8-16

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $375

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($453.20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,453.20)

Picks of the Week - CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

This season has been a shit-show, so last weekend should have been no surprise, even with a great start to the playoffs in the Wildcard Round.  I am not going to waste a lot of my time on this, since I know how it is going to turn out anyway.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Even though Bo Nix may have regressed a bit this year, this team is still way better with him than any backup that hasn't taken many snaps in a long time.  Best of luck to Jarrett Stidham, but I am not betting on it.

New England Patriots -210 Moneyline (Bet $210 to win $100) at Denver Broncos

If I think they are going to cover a 3 1/2 points spread on the road, I damn sure am going to pick them to win outright.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos UNDER 43 1/2

Tough defenses and a backup quarterback.

Seattle Seahawks -2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Seattle has - by far - played the best of any team in the NFL this entire season.  The Rams were at that level at one point, and are amazing offensively (1st in Passing Offense, 1st in Scoring Offense, 2nd in Total Offense and 7th in Rushing Offense), which it will need in going against the toughest defense in the NFL to score against.

Seattle Seahawks -135 Moneyline (Bet $135 to win $100) v. Los Angeles Rams

Just like in the early game, if I think they are going to cover the spread, I should pick them to win outright.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks OVER 45 1/2

This feels like it could be similar to the Week 16 38-37 barnburner.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Even though Bo Nix may have regressed a bit this year, this team is still way better with him than any backup that hasn't taken many snaps in a long time.  Best of luck to Jarrett Stidham, but I am not betting on it.

The Bo Nix injury at least made it so I don't have to even think about this choice.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks OVER 45 1/2

This feels like it could be similar to the Week 16 38-37 barnburner.

I am hoping for at least one really good, fun, close game this weekend - I hope it is this one.

Last Week Record: 1-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-2

Playoff Record: 13-17 

Playoff Big Bet:  1-3

Year-to-Date Record: 139-157-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-15

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1440)

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($828.20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,928.20)

Picks of the Week - NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

 

An actual great start to the playoffs, and with a play or two going in the other direction, I could have cut a big chunk into my yearly deficit.  As it is, I am not going to complain as we had some really excellent football during Wildcard Weekend - and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

And this week we should have some more phenomenal games.  In the NFC we have 3 western division teams, which have been the class of the conference all year, and the upstart cardiac Chicago Bears, who get to host a game in 20 degree temperatures!  In the AFC, we have one of the best defenses we have ever seen (Houston), one of the best players we have ever seen (Allen), and two teams that are way more than the sum of their parts (Denver and New England).  Let's get to the games!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Everything about this game screams "Broncos!"  They are coming off a bye and Buffalo is on a short week having played a tough game against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Broncos are the number 1 seed in the AFC.  And to top it all off, the money has overwhelming come in on Denver so far as this spread started with Buffalo -1 1/2.  But, It is hard to look at these games and see that Denver is the better team.  Denver's strength is its defense, where it finished 4th overall.  But Buffalo's defense finished 7th overall, giving up only 3 yards more per game.  And, Buffalo has the much - MUCH - better offense (3rd overall and 4th in scoring versus Denver's 12th overall and 14th in scoring).  And who do you trust more to make plays - Josh Allen or Bo Nix?

Buffalo Bills EVEN Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $100) at Denver Broncos

This line also opened with Buffalo being -112, so the money is definitely coming in on the Broncos.  But, I don't follow early money; I follow late money, and I suspect the late money will start coming in on the Bills.  For all of the reasons stated above, and because Buffalo has the number 1 ranked rushing offense in the NFL, I think the Bills will not only cover, but win outright.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos UNDER 46 1/2

I mentioned above that the Bills have the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL, and relying on a rushing game takes time off the clock - and lessens possessions.  Add to that fact that Denver has the second-best defense against the run in the NFL and this game is going to be a slog.

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

San Francisco 49ers +270 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $270) at Seattle Seahawks

It is one thing to take the points in this game, but the Moneyline?  This is purely a numbers pick.  Seattle is at -340 right now, meaning I would have to be $340 to win $100, so the ML spread is about $610, so I am taking this bet knowing Seattle is likely to win, but taking a low-risk flyer for some actual money.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45

Did you see the last score of 13-3 just two weeks ago?

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Yes New England will be at home in inclement weather, but it isn't like Houston has a high-flying offense.  They win with tough - and I mean TOUGH - defense (number 1 in the NFL in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense).  New England is no slouch in that department either (8th in Total defense and 4th in scoring defense), but their offense is way more likely to be affected by the weather than Houston's. Add that to the fact that Houston has probably forgotten how to lose (as they haven't lost since an 18-15 defeat to the Denver Broncos in Week 9 on November 2, and I will gladly take points here.

Houston Texans +150 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $150) at New England Patriots

Yes, the underdogs are flying here this weekend, as it seems that we have the weakest group of hosts in recent memory for the divisional round.  Honestly, the smart play if probably a New England victory here, but until Houston loses, I am going to keep taking them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

Chicago Bears +4 v. Los Angeles Rams

So I am taking all 4 underdogs, even though in this game the underdog is the home team.  The Bears, even in defeat, have done nothing but keep final games close.  Add to that the fact that the game will be played in about 21 degree weather with wind, and you can rest assured that both teams will rely on their run games, which has a tendency to keep games close.

Chicago Bears +172 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $172) v. Los Angeles Rams

If I am going to go all the way with underdogs, I might has well go ALL THE WAY with underdogs!

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears OVER 48 1/2

This bet makes no sense, even to me and I am making it, but I cannot select 4 underdogs AND 4 unders.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

This game just has to be close, right?

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

I am all-in on this Houston Defense.  One of the best three or four I have ever seen.  1985/1986 Bears; Early 2000s Ravens, the Tampa Bay Super Bowl winner (not with Brady), and this one.  Scary good.

Last Week Record: 12-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 12-6 

Playoff Big Bet:  1-1 

Year-to-Date Record: 138-148-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-13

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $611.80

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $611.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,488.20)

Picks of the Week - NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

 

OK - the worst NFL season of my picking career is finished, and we are now on to the Wildcard Round!!!  Hooray for that, at least.  Since the playoffs offer many less games to choose, I will be selecting each game Against the Spread, with the Money Line, and the Over/Under.  Also, I might have two Big Bets.  Let's see how that goes!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In no way, shape or form do I think that Carolina deserves to be in the playoffs, nor do I think they have a chance to win this game.  But - and it is a big BUT - the NFL placed this game in the Saturday afternoon window, which means the Pacific Time Zone team has to travel to the Eastern Time Zone to play a game on a short week.  This spells gambling trouble, and since it seems too easy to just pick the Rams, I have to take double-digit points.

Los Angeles Rams -600 Moneyline (Bet $600 to win $100) at Carolina Panther

The Rams have the league's highest-scoring offense and the second-best Total Offense.  Carolina is going to have trouble getting Los Angeles' offense off the field, ranking 31st in defensive first-down percentage.  Rams win, but it will be way closer than it should be.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 1/2

The ordinarily high-flying Rams offense is going to be slow to takeoff, and Carolina is going to try to keep this game on the ground to keep possessions low.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Both of the first two games between these two long-time rivals came down to the final play (each with the ball in Caleb Williams' hand).  There is no reason to think that this one will be any different.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional rivalry is always a good play.   And, it is a short week.

Green Bay Packers -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Chicago Bears

But, the above notwithstanding, the Packers had the lead in both previous games, and would have won the second if not for the fact Chicago recovered an onside kick.  Smart play here is Green Bay, and given that Chicago money line is anywhere from even to -108, and this bet is a no-brainer.  That being said, I hope I lose this one.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 45 1/2

I feel like both of these teams could score 21 in their sleep against each other, so all I need is basically one additional score.  So I'll take the over.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been playing great, but even with what seems like a subpar season performance-wise, the Bills still have Josh Allen and the 3rd-best total offense (and 4th-highest scoring offense) in the NFL.  Jacksonville's rush defense is stout (best in the NFL), but the passing defense is 21st.

 

Buffalo Bills -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If I am expecting the Bills to win (which is what +1 basically means), then I have to take their money line.  It is weird that the Bills are favored in MoneyLine Bets and some even have them as favorite against the spread - this is a bizarre game to prognosticate.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers +200 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $200) at Philadelphia Eagles

A healthy, healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey, a wide-array of offensive talent, and a favorable money line all make this to be a good bet.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 1/2

A high-flying offense and a couple of tush pushes makes this the play.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Another Pacific Time Zone team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but this is at night!  These are two very evenly matched teams with New England a little better on offense (4th versus 10th) and the Chargers a little better on defense (2nd versus 8th).   Given this, I will take the points, and an angry Harbaugh over his brother's firing.

Los Angeles Chargers +165 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $165) at New England Patriots

If I think that the Chargers are going to cover the spread, then I damn sure am going to take them with the Moneyline.  It is time for Justin Herbert to play like we all think Justin Herbert should be playing.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 1/2

Two tough, stubborn defenses.

Houston Texans -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers won the AFC north by backing in after a Tyler Loop missed 44-yard FG.  The Texans have won 9 in a row and 10 of their last 11.  And that defense!!!  They finished 1st in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, 4th in Rushing Defense, 6th in Third-Down percentage defense, and 6th in Passing Defense.  Pittsburgh's best offensive stats are 15th in Scoring, and 22nd in Passing.

Houston Texans -155 Moneyline (Bet $155 to win $100) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I am getting lucky on this line as it opened at -175.  That being said, this game has all the signs of a trap for gamblers.  An obvious favorite, but on the road, with a wildcard in favor of the underdog (Aaron Rodgers and Chris Boswell kicking in Heinz).  Nevertheless, I am taking Houston.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 1/2

Gonna be a whole lot of field goals in this one!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco just has too much firepower, and Ricky Pearsall hasn't even gotten into a groove yet this year.  I expect big games from McCaffrey and George Kittle.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

I mean, this has to hit, right?

Last Week Record: 4-12

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 126-142-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-12

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1,085)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,100)

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 18

 

This season just gets weirder and weirder.  Forget the games, Stefon Diggs arrested on felony strangulation and misdemeanor assault.  This must have been so bad that his brother was fired by the Dallas Cowboys, WOW!  Anyway, I lost all momentum this past week thanks to the egg laid by the Los Angeles Rams.  That win, and I would have had a second winning week in a row.

Happy New Year to everybody, and remember, one last week until the playoffs!!!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Statistically the teams are not much different from each other, with the one good part of Carolina's offense (11th in rushing) will go directly against the one good part of Tampa Bay's defense (7th in rushing).  The Buccaneers just don't look right the past few weeks, and Carolina is getting points.  Winner (mostly) is in the playoffs, with the caveat that if Tampa wins and Atlanta beats New Orleans - Carolina still makes the playoffs.  And yes, I know I am going against the home team on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

This game has all the makings of a phenomenal matchup, with the winner taking the #1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC (and a bye).  I am taking the home team on a short week as well as a home underdog in an intra-divisional matchup, so I like San Fran here.

Green Bay Packers +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game really means nothing to both teams, except that Malik Willis needs as many snaps as possible in case he is needed next week (unlikely) due to Jordan Love's concussion.  I cannot believe Max Brosmer is giving up nearly a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is still in the hunt for the #1 overall seed in the AFC, but this line is a lot of points given how scrappy the Titans have been (L8, W, L7, W in December).

Houston Texans -10 v. Indianapolis Colts

Houston could actually be the best team in the AFC.  They have the best Total Defense and the Best Scoring Defense, and now, they are going up against Riley Leaonard at QB.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I know, I know, I am giving points on the road in a divisional game, but this Cowboys team is just too potent when both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are playing.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I think the Bengals win this game, but I also think that Cleveland and its second-ranked defense keeps this close.  Does Myles Garrett tie or break the single-season sack record is the only thing that matters in this game (he needs 1/2 sack to tie).

 

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Yes Atlanta played on Monday, and I should take the Saints getting points due to Atlanta's short week, but if that same Falcons team that played Monday shows up Sunday, look out Saints.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

That Bears-49ers game last weekend was awesome.  Detroit has no reason to play this game, and even though they are professionals playing for Dan Campbell, it is hard to not subconsciously play less than 100%.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at New England Patriots

Just taking the points here.  Ewers does show promise, and Miami's running game is explosive.  Could keep it close.

Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

This Cardinals team is bad!  Rams need a bounce-back performance.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have lost 10 of their last 11.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. New York Jets

The Buffalo Bills have looked rather pedestrian of late, but you know what they haven't looked like?  A team that had to bail out Stefon Diggs.  Plus, the Jets are awful.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs get an 8 catch, 117-yard, 2 touchdown performance from Travis Kelce in his last game in the NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers +12 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Yes, I know that Justin Herbert isn't playing, but 12 1/2 is a lot of points for a team that hasn't won by more than 8 points since October.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

I sincerely think the Ravens will win this game, especially since Pittsburgh is without DK Metcalf.  But, I hate giving up points on the road, and I at least feel that this game could be close given that both defenses rank in the 20s in the NFL in Total Defense.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game really means nothing to both teams, except that Malik Willis needs as many snaps as possible in case he is needed next week (unlikely) due to Jordan Love's concussion.  I cannot believe Max Brosmer is giving up nearly a touchdown.

Malik Willis is playing for a contract/starting position somewhere - and some team SHOULD pick him up.

Last Week Record: 6-8-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 122-130-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($130)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,015) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 17

 

I followed up my worst week of the year with ...  MY ABSOLUTE BEST.  Seriously, a dream week.  Not only did I go 12-4 all while correctly picking my Big Bet, I also went 15-1 in my confidence pick league, losing only the Detroit Lions pick, who succumbed to the Pittsburgh Steelers on one of the more unusual endings you will ever see.  Correctly ruled by the officiating crew, too - Damnit!)

Three Christmas games tomorrow, with more Saturday/Sunday/Monday action to follow!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Washington Commanders +7 v. Dallas Cowboys

By now, this should be a familiar refrain:  "Home Team on a Short Week!"  But, we get to couple this one with another:  "Home Underdog in an Intra-Divisional Game!"  And, although the Commanders have been underwhelming this year, they played Philly close for a while last week, and Dallas' 30th-ranked defense more than makes up for its 2nd-ranked offense.

Minnesota Vikings +7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I do not want to make this pick.  AT ALL!  I feel compelled because each of the Thursday games the home team is an intra-divisional underdog.  So, I have to pick them all because I am statistically likely to win at least two of the three, no matter what, and me trying to cherry-pick which home team won't cover leads to more mistakes.  But, if I did, this would be THAT game.

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I seriously contemplated taking the Texans and their hot streak (won 7 in a row).  But, this is a short week for the Texans, they narrowly defeated the Raiders last week, and despite the strength of its defense (1st overall; 1st scoring; 4th in Passing and Rushing), the Chargers are no slouches on that side of the ball themselves (2nd overall; 6th passing, 8th scoring; 10th rushing).  So, I will take the home team, who I happen to believe is the best team in the AFC.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Baltimore Ravens

This is an absolute must-win for the Ravens, and nothing about them losing 3 of their last 4 games says they can win.  The Packers need a win to relieve pressure for next week's contest, and they are home during a short week.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Nothing can right a pirate ship heading in the wrong direction quite like a game against the Dolphins.

New York Jets +13 1/2 v. New England Patriots

The Patriots are better, and will win, but they will also underestimate the Jets and New York back-door covers.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cleveland Browns

Intra-divisional game with a home underdog, but I will give the points since I have been underestimating the Steelers the entire second half of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett has actually had a good season.  The Cardinals, however, have not.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Saints are on a 3-game winning streak, and will keep it up in Nashville.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Another home intra-divisional underdog.  Yes, the Colts got smoked by the 49ers, but the offense moved the ball and scored often.  It is a short week, so I don't like that, but I have to disobey one gambling rule, so I'll take the Colts to keep it close.

Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window, and like a lot of teams recently, probably underestimating the Panthers.

New York Giants -1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders stink, and without Brock Bowers, they stink even more!

Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

This just means more to the Bills, and I am operating under the assumption that Josh Allen will be playing.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Chicago Bears

Although it is a short week for San Francisco, it is the late Sunday game.  And, if they play anything close to how they did against the Colts, it will be hard for anyone to beat them the remainder of the year.

Los Angeles Rams -8 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anyone even care about this game?  The Falcons probably don't.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

This is A LOT of points.  And, Denver isn't a team that ordinarily blows teams away.  KC can keep it under two touchdowns!

Last Week Record: 12-4

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 116-122-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 5-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $910

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,985) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 16

 

Worst week of the year, and that is all I am going to say.  OUCH!  (Well, besides "OUCH").

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams are the best team in football right now, and Puka Nacua might be the most underrated star in the game.  BUT, picking the Rams would violate two betting rules:  (1) Home team on a short week; and (2) Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle.  So, I can live with picking the team I think is the second-best team in the NFL right now (at least until Sam Darnold gets into the playoffs).

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I hate, nay, I HATE!!!, this pick.  But see the above analysis.  I guess I will just hope that the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL can keep this game close.  UGH!

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Another short week, home, intra-divisional underdog.  Only this time the "favorites" were about 4 feet from losing to the Bears two weeks ago and since have lost their best player (Micah Parsons) and most exciting receiver (Christian Watson) to injury. 

 

Buffalo Bills -10 at Cleveland Browns

Double digits are a lot of points to give to a team with the 3rd best defense (and best against the pass) in the NFL.  But last week was a crucial turning point for the Bills in their comeback win against New England, and the Browns, who got blown out by the Bears.  Last week may have cemented each teams' fate for the rest of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers +1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I make this pick solely on the fact that I think Justin Herbert has to be healed a bit from his hand surgery by now (as he has not looked great the past two weeks playing with an injury), and based on the fact that Dallas is in the central time zone not the eastern time zone.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle, with first place in the NFC South on the line!

 

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at New York Giants

If we get last week's Minnesota Vikings, this game will not even be close.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

This game will cement Travis Kelce's retirement.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins gave a potential playoff berth a helluva run, but that ended Monday night in dramatic fashion, and this team will likely lose its spirit as well.  Plus, this is a short week for them, and Joe Burrow might be auditioning for trade value.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos

I am not sold that last week was the breakout that we have all been waiting for from the Broncos offense, and these two teams are remarkably even statistically (Jaguars 17th in Total Offense and 9th in Total Defense; Broncos 15th in Total Offense and 8th in Total Defense).  So, I'll take the points.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Falcons are just better, for whatever that means.  Although, Jacoby Brissett has had a great run as QB1.  If the Cardinals are smart, they are re-thinking Kyler Murray.

Houston Texans -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Kenny Pickett is very aptly named.

Detroit Lions -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Is it time for Detroit to make a push for the playoffs - and man will they be dangerous should they make it - or is it time for Pittsburgh to end a team's playoff possibilities two weeks in a run?  I lean to the former, and given that Pittsburgh is on a short week, I'll take the Lions offense, which is way better than what Pittsburgh saw last week.

New England Patriots +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I fully expect the Patriots to bounce-back after last week's crushing comeback loss to the Bills.  Although the Ravens are still in the playoff hunt (as they are only 1 game behind the Steelers), this might not be the week they catch up.  The last week against Pittsburgh does loom large, though, if the Ravens can keep pace with Pittsburgh).  So, given the implications, Baltimore may win, but New England keeps it VERY close.

San Francisco 49ers -6 at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers' comeback is a very sweet story, but he really didn't play that great.  Definitely not sure that the Colts' offense can keep up with San Francisco, which has scored under 26 only once since November 2.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Well, since New Orleans has screwed me over 2 weeks ago picking against them, let's see if the former trend continues (screwing me over) or the latter (winning two in a row) becomes a streak.

Last Week Record: 5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 104-118-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($975)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,895) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 15

 

Finally, a week like it should be.  Easily in the black and looking to get a streak going. Perhaps I am figuring this season out - if a bit late - as I have finished in the Top 4 in my confidence league each of the past two weeks as well.  Typing that is likely my kiss of death. 

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Tampa had better be angry after losing - AT HOME - to the New Orleans Saints last week.  Plus, Atlanta has lost 7 of 8, and the Buccaneers are home on a short week.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Chicago has a tendency to play close games, so the line feels a little large here to me.  Despite giving up hardly any yards (2nd in Total Defense; 1st in Passing Defense), the Browns give up a surprising amount of points (23.2 - good for 17th), but not enough to be blown out.

New York Giants -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Only because the Giants are coming off their bye week, so they might be rested a bit.  Otherwise I hate giving points in an intra-divisional game.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes this is a lot of points, but the Eagles offense actually showed some life offensively last week against the Chargers, with Saquon Barkley rushing for 122, and A.J. Brown receiving for 100.  If not for 4 interceptions and a ton of fumbles, Philly runs away with that game.  The problem for me is that was Monday, making this a short week, but then again, the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, so that is a wash.  Eagles by 3 touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are bad, and imagine what could happen if Houston had just a modicum of a running game, instead of being 23rd in the league?

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

New England stunned Buffalo in Buffalo back in Week 5, in the second game of its 10-game winning streak.  Now the Patriots are getting points at home.  Yes, please!

Jacksonville Jaguars -11 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a whole lot of points, but the Jaguars are 9th in scoring in the league and have the number 1 rush defense in the entire NFL.  The Jets have the 26th scoring defense in the NFL, so this game could get ugly early.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are clearly the better team, however, they are on a short week.  And Justin Herbert looked extremely limited with his broken left hand trying to heal.  If the Eagles didn't turn the ball over 1,432 times on Monday, that game would not have been close.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

This is a HUGE number, but I do have to try to take into account not just the physical loss of Daniel Jones at Quarterback, but also the emotional toll on the team.  I could easily see the Colts slipping out of the playoffs altogether, and this last quarter of the season being UGLYYYYY.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

I am not taking two double-digit favorites in a row, especially after already taking the Jaguars and Eagles as double-digit favorites. The Titans scored more than enough to defeat the difficult Browns defense, and could easily keep this to a 9 or 10 point game.

Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This Broncos offense stinks.  Technically they are in the statistical middle in almost every category, but man they are not fun to watch and not explosive.  Not sure they can score enough to keep up with the Packers, especially with Josh Jacobs back.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I always like getting points at home in an intra-divisional game, and wouldn't it be something if the Saints defeated Tampa Bay and Carolina on consecutive weeks when those to teams are locked in a heated battle for the divisional title?

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two really good teams, and they both can score in bunches - and quickly.  In that case, I will take points.

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys were handled by the Lions last week, but that doesn't stop me from buying them for six points against a Minnesota team that is wildly inconsistent, especially when it comes to quarterback play.  I would have thought this line might be 3 1/2 or 4 after Minnesota's 31-0 clocking of the Washington Commanders, but I am going to have to live with giving the extra points.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Dolphins are statistically better offensively and defensively than the Steelers, and this pick is largely made by the fact that Devon Achane has an additional day to heal his ribs.  I might re-visit this pick if his playing status changes before now and then.  The Dolphins are also hot, having won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6.  

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

In Joe Burrow we trust!!!  He has even given Chase Brown some life as a primary running back.  Hit, some.  Love getting points at home, though!

Last Week Record: 8-5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 99-107-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $400

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 14

 

At one point in time late in the third quarter of the one o'clock window, I was 6-1 for that segment of games (8-3 overall) including winning my big bet.  I finished that segment 3-4, and losing the big bet.  I hate this year.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Detroit Lions

The once-vaunted Lions are 2-3 since their bye week.  Their 17th ranked pass defense now faces the number 1 passing offense in the NFL, and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are playing like world-beaters.  Plus, this isn't a short week for either team.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

It is well past the time to jump off the Ravens are Super Bowl favorites/world beaters and jump on the I'll take points when playing the Ravens bandwagon.  Could be lots of points with the 23rd (Ravens) and 28th (Steelers) defenses.

Atlanta Falcons +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

I HATE this pick, but Seattle is playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, so there is at least that opportunity for Atlanta to cover.  

Tennessee Titans +4 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I am not sure either of these teams can score 4 1/2 points total, much less 4 1/2 points more than the other team.

Miami Dolphins -3 at New York Jets

Although I do not like giving points on the road in an intra-divisional game, the Dolphins are playing like a real football team in having won two games in a row.  The Jets actually beat the Falcons last week, but the Dolphins have looked better.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Tampa is getting back its weapons (Bucky Irving last week, Godwin maybe this week), and New Orleans may be missing Alvin Kamara and the shine to Tyler Shough may be losing its luster.

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Getting points with a team that is playing better than its opponent and gets this game at home?  Yes, please!

Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

What happened to the Vikings?  Oh, quarterback play?!  Where is Sam Darnold?  Oh yeah, gone.

Cincinnati Bengals +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Joe Burrow is most definitely back, and the Bills have not looked good in over a month.

Chicago Bears +7 at Green Bay Packers

Yes, I love that my Bears are in first place in the entire NFC!  That is absolutely amazing to me.  But no, I don't think they are the best team in the NFC.  But I think they can play to within a touchdown of absolutely anyone, especially now that Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are back, turning their secondary from a weakness into an absolute strength.  Green Bay wins, but this game is close.

Las Vegas Raiders + 7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

As someone who has invested heavily in Bo Nix (2 leagues), Cortland Sutton (3 leagues) and Evan Engram (2 leagues) in fantasy football, nothing would please me more than this offense to finally get cooking at the level most people expected for this year.  But, they have been incredibly mediocre (16th Total Offense, 14th Passing Offense and Rushing Offense, 13th Scoring Offense), and they haven't won by more than 3 since October 26, and before that once on September 29, against an array of good, mediocre and bad teams.  Added to the fact this is an intra-divisional game and the Raiders are at home, I'll take the points and just hope Brock Bowers continues to carry the Raiders offensively.

Arizona Cardinals +8 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams have been hit-or-miss for about a month now, and Jacoby Brissett has a solid 97.4 quarterback rating, which might just lead to a closer-than-expected game.  Add to that the fact that Marvin Harrison, Jr. might return to action for the Cardinals, and I will take the points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have been struggling, losing 3 of their last 4 games, and now they are giving up points to the NFL's top-ranked defense in both Total Defense and Scoring Defense.  And, with four wins in a row, and 5 in their last six games, Houston is looking like a playoff teams.  I will take the points.

Los Angeles Chargers +2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I don't fully know what to make of this game with the possibility (likelihood?) that Justin Herbert will miss the game, but even with taking this into account the Eagles are the 24th ranked offense in the NFL, and the Chargers are the 2nd-ranked team in total offense.  With those stats, I will take points at home, for sure.

Bye Weeks:  Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Las Vegas Raiders + 7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

As someone who has invested heavily in Bo Nix (2 leagues), Cortland Sutton (3 leagues) and Evan Engram (2 leagues) in fantasy football, nothing would please me more than this offense to finally get cooking at the level most people expected for this year.  But, they have been incredibly mediocre (16th Total Offense, 14th Passing Offense and Rushing Offense, 13th Scoring Offense), and they haven't won by more than 3 since October 26, and before that once on September 29, against an array of good, mediocre and bad teams.  Added to the fact this is an intra-divisional game and the Raiders are at home, I'll take the points and just hope Brock Bowers continues to carry the Raiders offensively.

At least if I lose this Big Bet then that means my fantasy teams will have flourished!

Last Week Record: 7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 91-102-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($455)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,320) 

Picks of the Week - NFL - Week 13

 

Hey, I actually won my Big Bet last week!!!  But, still underwater.  I hate this year.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Detroit Lions

Both squads are in a 3-way battle for conference supremacy (along with the Chicago Bears).  I am going to go with the Packers defense (3rd in Total Defense/4th in Scoring Defense/5th in Pass Defense/6th in Rush Defense) especially since they are getting points.  I cannot pick all 3 home teams on a short week, right?

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Fresh off a really ugly win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys are getting points on a short week at home.  Kansas City had a great comeback over the Indianapolis Colts but are still in a life-or-death game every week in order to make the playoffs.  That is going to catch up to them eventually, and this number 3 offense is really clicking at this moment.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Once gain home team/short week.  The Bengals should get a boost from the return of Joe Burrow, but their one-demensionality on offense (30th in rushing), could be detrimental against a rapidly-improving Baltimore Ravens defense that although 22nd in the NFL, that is serious improvement over the last few weeks from when they were ranked dead last.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears have pulled a lot of rabbits out of their collective hats, and on paper actually look a bit better than Philadelphia, but there is no question the Eagles are a better team.  And, they are at home on Friday, I'll give the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I know I should pick Tennessee as a home intra-divisional dog, but they just don't warrant the pick  right now, not at under a touchdown.  Next-to-last in offense and 26th in defense, facing a Jacksonville team that suddenly finds itself only 1 game behind the division-leading Colts in the AFC South.

 

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The J-E-T-S- Jets-Jets-Jets are awful.  Just awful.  

Los Angeles Rams -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Going to violate a gambling law no matter which way I pick, as Carolina is on a short week, but LA is traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window.  So, going against the double-digit favorite would be the next step, but I can't do that, as the Rams might be the best team in football, and the 49ers may have broken Carolina's spirit on Monday night by winning a game Carolina had every right to win.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. New Orleans Saints

Miami on a two-game winning streak; let's make it 3, and they cover.  Saints star Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and that could be a tremendous loss for a rookie quarterback.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

It is looking like the Buccaneers are getting Bucky Irving back; not so much for Trey Benson and Arizona.  Although the Cardinals have looked better with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

As great as Cleveland's defense is, they are not even close to the level of the Houston Texans.  The number 1 defense versus the number 2 offense.  The big difference is that Houston's offense is mediocre, whereas Indianapolis' defense gives up a lot of yards (24th).  This game is close, maybe a field goal either way.

Minnesota Vikings +11 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks absolutely win this game, as J.J. McCarthy has ... let's call it struggled.  But 11 1/2 is a lot of points.  A lot.  So, I'll take them.

Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams in the playoff hunt, but the Bills have lost 2 out of 3 and 3 out of 6.  The Steelers have just looked - mediocre.  So long as Josh Allen doesn't turn the ball over, Bills win by 10.  But that is a big IF ...

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Only 8 1/2?  Really?  And the Raiders might be without Ashton Jeanty.

Denver Broncos -6 at Washington Commanders

Denver should be fresher coming off of a bye.  And, playing against the 31st ranked defense in Total Defense that is also 29th against the pass (and 28th overall) might just be what Bo Nix needs to unlock Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, Tony Franklin and the rest of the passing game.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Patriots are better and will win, for sure.  But the Giants have played 4 straight relatively close games, and Jameis Winston is a national treasure.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Getting points at home, with all of the surrounding situation for the 49ers as mentioned above.  I am betting on defense. 

Last Week Record: 6-7-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 84-93-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,865) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 12

 

An actual winning week, but once again I am undone by the damn Big Bet, which I lost --- AGAIN!  I just cannot figure this season out.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am supposed to pick the home team on a short week, I know.  And Houston does have the best defense in the NFL.  But Buffalo scored 44 on a very good Tampa Bay defense last week, and I just cannot pick Davis Mills in a prime time game.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Chicago Bears -2 1/2

Both teams defenses give up A LOT of yards.  The Bears are 27th and the Steelers 28th in Total Defense.  The difference is the Bears are 4th in Total Offense, AND they are at home.  Now that is what I would have written if the Chicago Bears were not literally playing without ALL 3 starting linebackers!!!  All three.  Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards, and Noah Sewell.  And they are 27th in Total Defense WITH those guys.  Ugh.

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay's defense is 5th in Total Defense and 7th in scoring defense, and J.J. McCarthy has proven himself to be very pedestrian with a 61.7 QB Rating.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Although Kansas City needs to play desperate in this game just to have a chance at making the playoffs, and desperation and talent are a dangerous combination, Indianapolis is just a better team, especially offensively.  KC may win, but I am going to take the points, as the Colts score enough to cover - at least.

 

New England Patriots -6 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati has the worst defense in the NFL (last in Total Defense, last in rushing defense, last in scoring defense and 31st in passing defense).  That is just too much to overcome while J'Marr Chase is suspended and Joe Flacco - although efficient - is still aging.

Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a lot of points, but this is an unconventional year.  AND the J-E-T-S- Jets Jets Jets are B-A-D!

Detroit Lions -10 v. New York Giants

The Lions are going to be chomping at the bit after being stifled by the Eagles' defense last week after exploding against the Commanders.  I think this could be a three-score game.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Honestly, I just took two double-digit favorites, why not take a third?  (Because that is stupid, but this year has been crazy ...).

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This pick is predicated solely on the return of Trey Benson, coupled with Jacksonville overestimating their decimation of the Los Angeles Chargers last week, and thus under-preparing for Arizona.  If no Benson, this pick is reversed.

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Getting points at home against an intra-divisional rival is always going to be my go-to play, even though it is a short week for the Cowboys.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 at Los Angeles Rams

This was a very tough game for me to pick.  It might feature the return of Buccaneers' starting running back Bucky Irving, and if it does, he would be well-rested for some reps/carries and alternate with Rachaad White and the surprisingly spry Sean Tucker to at least keep the Rams defense guessing.  Will that be enough to win?  Likely not, especially on the road.  But a 30-24 score with the Rams winning?  I can see that.

Carolina Panthers +7 at San Francisco 49ers

I am taking Carolina because of the points, and because Rico Dowdle is having a heckuva season running the ball (4th in the NFL), because San Francisco is still without Fred Warner, and nobody has figured out Carolina and how they are 6-5 this year.  So, since my first impression is that San Francisco should win easily, I am picking Carolina.

Byes:  Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Miami Dolphins, Washington Commanders

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders

You mean I get points against the 30th ranked offense (Total and Scoring)?!  And, I get them when the other team (the Raiders) are on a short week?!  And I have the second-best Total Defense in the NFL?!  What's the catch?  Oh, Shadeur Sanders' first start ...  I'll take it!!! (Crying emoji!)

It seems like this year I am going to get this pick wrong anyway, might as well really go down behind Shadeur Sanders' first start!

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 78-86

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $75

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,845)