Picks of the Week - NFL Week 15

 

Finally, a week like it should be.  Easily in the black and looking to get a streak going. Perhaps I am figuring this season out - if a bit late - as I have finished in the Top 4 in my confidence league each of the past two weeks as well.  Typing that is likely my kiss of death. 

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Tampa had better be angry after losing - AT HOME - to the New Orleans Saints last week.  Plus, Atlanta has lost 7 of 8, and the Buccaneers are home on a short week.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Chicago has a tendency to play close games, so the line feels a little large here to me.  Despite giving up hardly any yards (2nd in Total Defense; 1st in Passing Defense), the Browns give up a surprising amount of points (23.2 - good for 17th), but not enough to be blown out.

New York Giants -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Only because the Giants are coming off their bye week, so they might be rested a bit.  Otherwise I hate giving points in an intra-divisional game.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes this is a lot of points, but the Eagles offense actually showed some life offensively last week against the Chargers, with Saquon Barkley rushing for 122, and A.J. Brown receiving for 100.  If not for 4 interceptions and a ton of fumbles, Philly runs away with that game.  The problem for me is that was Monday, making this a short week, but then again, the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, so that is a wash.  Eagles by 3 touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are bad, and imagine what could happen if Houston had just a modicum of a running game, instead of being 23rd in the league?

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

New England stunned Buffalo in Buffalo back in Week 5, in the second game of its 10-game winning streak.  Now the Patriots are getting points at home.  Yes, please!

Jacksonville Jaguars -11 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a whole lot of points, but the Jaguars are 9th in scoring in the league and have the number 1 rush defense in the entire NFL.  The Jets have the 26th scoring defense in the NFL, so this game could get ugly early.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are clearly the better team, however, they are on a short week.  And Justin Herbert looked extremely limited with his broken left hand trying to heal.  If the Eagles didn't turn the ball over 1,432 times on Monday, that game would not have been close.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

This is a HUGE number, but I do have to try to take into account not just the physical loss of Daniel Jones at Quarterback, but also the emotional toll on the team.  I could easily see the Colts slipping out of the playoffs altogether, and this last quarter of the season being UGLYYYYY.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

I am not taking two double-digit favorites in a row, especially after already taking the Jaguars and Eagles as double-digit favorites. The Titans scored more than enough to defeat the difficult Browns defense, and could easily keep this to a 9 or 10 point game.

Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This Broncos offense stinks.  Technically they are in the statistical middle in almost every category, but man they are not fun to watch and not explosive.  Not sure they can score enough to keep up with the Packers, especially with Josh Jacobs back.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I always like getting points at home in an intra-divisional game, and wouldn't it be something if the Saints defeated Tampa Bay and Carolina on consecutive weeks when those to teams are locked in a heated battle for the divisional title?

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two really good teams, and they both can score in bunches - and quickly.  In that case, I will take points.

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys were handled by the Lions last week, but that doesn't stop me from buying them for six points against a Minnesota team that is wildly inconsistent, especially when it comes to quarterback play.  I would have thought this line might be 3 1/2 or 4 after Minnesota's 31-0 clocking of the Washington Commanders, but I am going to have to live with giving the extra points.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Dolphins are statistically better offensively and defensively than the Steelers, and this pick is largely made by the fact that Devon Achane has an additional day to heal his ribs.  I might re-visit this pick if his playing status changes before now and then.  The Dolphins are also hot, having won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6.  

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

In Joe Burrow we trust!!!  He has even given Chase Brown some life as a primary running back.  Hit, some.  Love getting points at home, though!

Last Week Record: 8-5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 99-107-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $400

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week

 

Happy New Year from South Ponte Vedra, Florida.  A little vacay, so probably not much analysis today - well, we will see when we get into it.  At the very least a bit rushed because games are today, which is awful for those in the playoff hunt, as it gives teams, like Miami and Denver, the knowledge of what they have to do given that Cincinnati plays first.  All of these games should be tomorrow.  But, oh well, I don't run things.  A bit of a so-so week as I finished with a winning record, but lost the big bet, so finished a bit in the negative.  And this week is a super crapshoot as some teams rest all of their best players, some will only play them a little bit, and most we will have no idea until it happens.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns +20 at Baltimore Ravens

I cannot, in good conscience, but on a 20-point favorite.  Even if Bailey Zappe is starting for the other team.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game.  Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.

Chicago Bears +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay wins this, but I feel like they will be tentative not wanting ot invite injury into their playoff team.  Chicago only incentive is that a lot of players and coaches are playing and coaching for their jobs.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 v. New York Giants

Most starters won't be playing for Philadelphia, but Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Gainwell have both proven themselves to be legitimate NFL players.

Carolina Panthers +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Other than last week's debacle, Carolina has been playing everybody close.  Atlanta technically has the potential of the playoffs, except that if Tampa Bay jumps out to an early lead against the Saints, the deflation-factor could really come into play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

The Saints are a M*A*S*H unit, and Tampa is on fire.  They will be a tough out for the Detroits, Minnesotas and Philadelphias of the NFC.  And, can somebody please tell me how Baker Mayfield was not selected to the Pro Bowl?  All due respect to Jayden Daniels.

Washington Commanders -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I hate selecting an intradivsional road favorite, but last week's decimation at the hands of the Eagles most likely broke the Cowboys.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Much like the Cowboys, the Colts suffered a horrible loss last week to the Giants, just ending their season.  Not much to play for at all.  I can't even believe the Colts are starting Joe Flacco.

Houston Texans +2 at Tennessee Titans

Houston is actually getting points in this, which tells me that the bettors think they may not play their starters very long.  I hope that isn't true.

Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Buffalo has the 2-seed locked up, but hoping the starters jump to an early lead in the first half just because the team is so mad that they allowed New England to play them so close two weeks ago.

Kansas City Chiefs +10 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Broncos have to win to make the playoffs (they can also make it with both Cincinnati and Miami losses, and Cincinnati plays Saturday, so they will know), and Kansas City will not be playing its starters, but 10 1/2 points?  I reserve the right to change this bet if Cincinnati loses.  Otherwise, I absolutely hate this line.

San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

An absolute crapshoot of a pick based solely on Joshua Dobbs' athleticism.

Miami Dolphins +1 at New York Jets

Bad line here, because Aaron Rodgers would do something like win a game to push the Jets down in the draft order, only to end up leaving the team and/or retiring.  This line could change toward the Jets if Cincinnati wins on Saturday, and I reserve the right to change my pick if that occurrs.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

In most circumstances, the Rams are the picks in this game, except that Seattle needs this game, and the Rams plan to rest a lot of its players.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Jim Harbaugh never allows rest.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Detroit Lions

This whole year has been "Detroit this, Detroit that."  Minnesota has the opportunity to yank the #1 overall seed away from Detroit.  I don't know that they do that, but I think this game will be incredibly close, so I'll take the points.  The difference will be Minnesota's defense, 4th in third-down percentage, 4th in scoring defense, and 2nd against the rush.

Big Bets:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game.  Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.

I hate picking a road team for the big bet, much less in an intra-divisional game.  But Cincinnati has a lot for which to play, and Burrow puts an exclamation point on what would ordinarily be an MVP season.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  127-119-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-8

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($360)

Picks of the Week

A second consecutive 9-4-1 week.  These are the types of records I like to see!!!  Off to a bad start this week, but hopefully I can keep up the level I have been selecting recently!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Home team, short week didn't work.  Really, really didn't work.

New England Patriots +6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Wembley Stadium)

Drake Maye showed something last week, and despite New England not having a lot of offensive talent, Maye might be able to score enough against the leagues 31st scoring defense to keep this close.

Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Miami Dolphins

I really have no idea what to do with this one.  Yes, Anthony Richardson is returning, but do we really know if he is good or not?  No, we don't.  But, Tua Tagavailova is still out for Miami, so that offense hasn't shown anything since he went down with injury.  So maybe Richardson is inconsistent, but makes a few plays to win and cover.

Buffalo Bills -9 v. Tennessee Titans

The Bills have actually been struggling this year offensively; 25th in the NFL.  But, optimism is key.  And if Josh Allen is hyped due to the acquisition of Amari Cooper, that coould do a lot for this team, even if it will take Cooper a couple of weeks to get up to speed.  Interested in seeing how Tennessee's top ranked defense fares against the new look Buffalo with James Cook back and Amari Cooper suited up.

Detroit Lions + 1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

In a matchup that should be a close barnburner, I'll take points, even if it is only 1 1/2.  The over (50 1/2) should be a good play here, also.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I hate road intradivisional favorites, but Cleveland is awful and they have already traded Amari Cooper.  Could Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and/or Myles Garrett be far behind?

Houston Texans + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay's 25th ranked passing defense is their downfall here, as Houston looks to take advantage of the Packers' secondary.

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Eastern time zone home team against a Pacific time zone team in the 1:00 slot; covers over 2/3rds of the time.

New York Giants +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I do not want to take 2 intradivisional road favorites, and Cincinnati seems more likely to cover than the Eagles.  Is it possible that we have been overrating the Eagles (and Jalen Hurts?) for the past couple years?  Also feel like the Giants are not as bad as everyone thinks, either, so I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +9 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Please don't get me wrong, Washington wins this game.  It is just that 9 1/2 points seem like a lot to me.

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Too many Maxx Crosby trade rumors circulating for this Raiders team to be focused on the rest of this season.

San Francisco 49ers -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The return of Jordan Mason to the lineup should put a jolt in the San Francisco offense, at least enough to defeat a Kansas City Chiefs team lacking in firepower.  Could they be looking for a trade deadline upgrade, especially at receiver?

New York Jets -2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

At the very least Aaron Rodgers knows Davante Adams, even if Adams cannot get fully up-to-speed on the entire playbook.  The Steelers will be starting Russell Wilson, hoping they get the Wilson from 4+ years ago and not thei this year/last year version.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore is the better team here, but could Baker Mayfield exploit the one kink in the Ravens' armor - pass defense (31st in the NFL)?  They may, but Tampa's entire defense is its Achilles' heel (28th overall, 29th passing, 18th scoring).

Los Angeles Chargers -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Don't really know what it is about these Chargers, but they look like they could make a playoff run.  Number 1 scoring defense in the NFL - and 6th in total defense helps.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I hate road intradivisional favorites, but Cleveland is awful and they have already traded Amari Cooper.  Could Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and/or Myles Garrett be far behind?

I am going against everything I like to do for my big bet.  Pick home teams, that are underdogs, or only slight favorites being among them.  But, this Cleveland team is a mess.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  46-40-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 5-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $785

 

Picks of the Week

 

Finally, the type of week I have been looking for this week.  Absolutely incredible.  Hopefully that doesn't mean I fall back-down-to-earth, but so far teh London week games have been good to me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks + 4 v. San Francisco 49ers

Home team, short week didn't work.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Hopefully like last week the favorite prevails.  The Bears defense is running smoothly - 3rd in third-down percentage, fifthe in scoring, 6th in passing and 8th overall.  Is this the week Doug Pederson gets fired a al Robert Saleh?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I hate taking a road intra-divsional favorite, but we just do not know what we will be getting from Spencer Rattler making his first start.  Only reason this spread is like this.  I do have the additional incentive of picking against the team playing on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay is the third-best rushing team in the NFL, whereas Arizona is 28th in stopping the run.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee is coming off a bye and the Colts are battered.  If Will Levis can just keep from committing that one stupid turnover per game ... big If.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 v. Cleveland Browns

Is it time for the Browns to put Wyatt Teller, Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper on the trading block?  A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson return for the Eagles.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Drake Maye is getting his first start for a Patriots team that has sputtered offensively (last in passing and 31st in scoring and 31st overall).  Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson is out from the 8th ranked rushing offense.  Houston meanwhile has the 6th best offense and 4th best defense.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Washington Commanders

I really wanted to take Washington here, as I think they could give the Ravens a game.  However, Washington's offensive strength (2nd in rushing), is also Baltimore's defensive strength (1st in the NFL), and Baltimore's #1 ranked total and rushing offense could actually win the time-of-possession battle that has worked so well for Washington this year.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Both teams offenses rank very low, and both teams defenses rank pretty high, so I will take the points in an intradivisional battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

It is possible that the Raiders get a jolt from Aiden O'Connell taking the helm, but I don't think so.  I just believe this Raiders team is in disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Carolina Panthers

Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite, but the Panthers are not good; 26th in offense and 28th in defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Is it possible that the Cowboys last-minute win against the Steelers turns their season around?  Sure, but I don't believe it.  Too many injuries on the defensive line and no rushing game (31st in the NFL).

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at New York Jets

So Robert Saleh was going to demote Nathaniel Hackett.  Aaron Rodgers got wind of it and complained to the owner, who fired Robert Saleh and slapped the interim head coach tag on Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who then pulled play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett.  Huh?

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Very few solid home teams giving up very little points, so I will take Denver getting them.  My other options were Green Bay -5 1/2, Philadelphia -9, and Denver +3, but this looks the most promising.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  37-36-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $175

 

Picks of the Week

 

A decent bounce-back week last week.  Not great, but finished in the positive, so I will take it!  Games start early this weekend because the Jaguars have a home game in London.  I imagine there are a lot of Londoners that have no idea why Blake Bortles isn't in the Hall of Fame, much less not starting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Home team on a short week.  This was a disaster.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons (London)

Home game for Jacksonville.  Atlanta's best feature is their running game, 10th in the NFL.  Jacksonville stops the run (7th in the NFL).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Denver Broncos

Imagine giving up 70 points one week and being favored on the road the next week.  By the way Dolphins fans, a field goal last week would not have broken the NFL single-game points record.  I know they kept saying 72 was the recod on television, but the Bears beat the Washington Racists 73-0 in the 1940 NFL championship game, behind the immortal Sid Luckman.

Houston Texans +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston has the 6th best passing offense in the NFL.  Pittsburgh is 22nd in pass defense.  T.J. Watt may get a couple of sacks, but the back-end of this defense will likely give up over 300+ yards to C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell and company.

Los Angeles Rams +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

I hate that Indianapolis is in the Eastern time zone, because the betting rules say take the Eastern time zone team in this slot.  Also the Rams played Monday night.  Everything about this matchup screams Indianapolis.  But seriously, how are the Colts 2-1?  The have the 20th ranked offense and the 22nd ranked defense.  Los Angeles meanwhile is 1-2 with the 9th best offensive team and the 7th best defensive team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Two 0-3 teams, and not the worst game on the board. See Denver v. Chicago.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay played Monday night, so this is a short week for them.  They also have the 27th ranked offense and 23rd ranked defense.  And those stats come from having played the Bears.

Washington Commanders +9 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are better.  Wayyyy better.  But this is a big number and Pilly is playing on a short week.  I'll take the points.

Buffalo Bills -3 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody is all over the Dolphins because of their 70-spot last week againt Denver, but you cannot carry-over points.  Yes the Dolphins are electric offensively, 1st in total offense, scoring offense, passing offense, and rushing offense, but those stats are incredibly skewed due to the Denver game.  Buffal is 2nd in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, and 3rd in passing defense.  Miami's offense and Buffalo's defense are both sturdy.  But, Miami's defense is 20th in scoring, 20th in passing, 24th in rushing and 24th in total defense, whereas Buffalo's offense is 2nd in scoring, 7th in rushing and 8th in total offense.  Buffalo's offense is better than Miami's defense, so I will take the Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens,

The Browns outrank the Ravens in every offensive category (total, scoring, rushing, and passing.)  Plus, their defense is E-LITE:  2nd in rushing defense, 1st in third down conversion percentage, 1st in passing defense, 1st in total defense and 1st in scoring defense.  Give me the Browns.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

We do not know who will start at quarterback for the Raiders.  We do know it won't be Jimmy Garoppolo (consussion protocol).  It will be Brian Hoyer or Aiden McConnell.  I'll take the Chargers and their second ranked offense.

 

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. New England Patriots

Bounce back game.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers 

San Francisco may still win easily, but this is a lot of points in a divisional game.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at New York Jets

Kansas City is 1-0 in ass-whippings in game in which Taylor Swift attends.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Giants

Do we really have to have two prime time New Jersey games this weekend?  Seattle's defense is practically worthless (30th total, 31st passing, 29th scoring), but the Giants offense is equally worhtless, (24th rushing, 28th passing, 28th total, 31st scoring).  Put it this way, the Bears average more points than the Giants do.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

I usually don't like selecting road teams for my "Big Bet", much less road teams giving points, but nothing about this Tennessee team excites me, and I really think Cincinnati started to clikc in the second half last week.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  25-20-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $435

Picks of the Week

The divisional round was fantastic for us, which is a good thing because I do not know if I can really figure out the conference championship games.  Of course, we will give it a shot and hope for the best.  Seriously, this is about the best final four matchups for which we could have hoped in terms of quality teams and great matchups.  Going to be a great football day!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

A dynamic matchup between the 6th and 3rd highest scoring offenses, and the 1st and 4th best defenses.  Strength versus strength with Piladelphia being the 5th best rushing offense and San Franciso being the best overall defense, and 2nd best against the run.  Jalen Hurts is the difference here, as Brock Purdy - who has done an admirable job - is still just a rookie.  But, given that, I still think this game will be close, so I will take the points.  West coast team traveling east, but this game is not being played in the 1:00 time slot, so I will still take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -155 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $155 to win $100)

As stated above, Jalen Hurts is going to be the difference here, and will not make the key mistake(s) that Purdy will.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45

Two of the better defenses in the NFL, and a rookie quarterback make for an interesting under bet.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +115 at Kansas City Chiefs

I am going to take a Joe Burrow at 100% with J'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and a hobbled Travis Kelce.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiegs OVER 48

I expect a shootout!!!

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

If I expect Cincinnati to win, then the fact that they are getting points must mean I should make this my big bet.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-131-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week

My head is still spinning from the tumultuous Space Force - Coast Guard college game last night.  If you don't know - ask me about it.  Hope I can get that conversation out of my head and concentrate on today's game to keep up my winning streak, as last week was very good!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Los Angeles Rams + 6 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Baker Mayfield comeback notwithstanding, home team on a short week wins again.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh has won 3 of its last 4, and Baltimore is without Lamar Jackson.  Pittsburgh has been playing a lot better since T.J. Watt returned.

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville is better offensively than the Titans (11th to 29th), and even in rushing (10th to 15th), and exactly the same defensively (both T25th overall).  Sounds like I will take the points in what should be a close game.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at New York Giants

The third overall offense and the 2nd overall defense versus the Giants, who are in the bottom third of each.  Philly rolls.

New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills

Double digits is a big spread against a team that has recently made a dramatic upgrade at quarterback in Mike White, and which beat the Bills just over a mvonth ago.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 v. Cleveland Browns

DeShaun Watson looked pedestrian against the Texans last week.  Another week of practice should help, but playing the Bengals will not.  Joe Burrow leads a Cincinnati team that is 4th in passing to a bunch of scores.

Houston Texans +17 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I really want to take the Cowboys here just to say I did, but if I lost because Houston covers, I would be kicking myself.  If I lose this bet as it stands, I still stand by my bet.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Denver Broncos

The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring, whereas Denver doesn't score.  This might be a bit too many points for a divisional rival, though, so I don't feel safe with this one.

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Brock Purdy looked pretty good last week, but more importantly, Tampa Bay played Monday night.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I bet Carolina wishes they had a quarterback as good as Geno Smith.  Hell, I bet they wish they had a quarterback as good as Baker Mayfield.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

I wonder how the travel of the last two weeks affects the Dolphins (they played at San Francisco last week).  They are still better than the Chargers and their 27th ranked defense, so the Dolphins' 4th ranked total offense should move the ball and score.

New England Patriots -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

I honestly cannot believe I am giving up points here, but the Patriots are on a two-game losing streak, and who thinks Belichick loses three in a row?  Also, the Patriots defense is solid (7th in total defense, T7th in scoring defense), whereas Arizona is next-to-last in giving up points.

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, Washington Commanders

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

This line is utterly ridiculous, and it seems way too obvious to pick the Vikings.  Not quite sure why I am doing it then, but, I have to.

This pick literally pains me, as I have been a huge proponent of betting on the Lions, but, in this case they are giving up points.  In the 1:p.m. game slot, the Noon Nightmare strikes again.

Last Week's Record:  9-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  96-91-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($240)

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LVI

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 at Cincinnati Bengals

I had the Rams winning the Super Bowl (over Kansas City) since the beginning of the year.  Their offense is settling nicely with both Cam Akers and Sony Michel, meaning the Bengals cannot just sit back and double Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jr., or just rush Matthew Stafford.  Although, I have lost a lot betting against Cincinnati these playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 49

Both teams average 27.1 points per game (tied for 7th), and both give up around 22.  Should be a good scoring game, so I'll take the over.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Evan McPherson OVER 7 1/2 points

If I think he is going to kick at least two field goals, I have to go with over 7 1/2 points.

Cooper Kupp's longest reception OVER 29 1/2 yards

He leads the NLF in targets, meaning he is likely going to be thrown to a lot, and even if he does not get open deep, 846 of his 1,947 regular season yards after the catch. meaning he could take a 15 yarder for over 30.

National Anthem UNDER 2:00 minutes

My standard bet, although last year the line was 2:10.

Matthew Stafford OVER 1 1/2 Passing Touchdowns

Stafford has thrown at least 2 TDs in all but one game dating back to mid-November, and now with Odell Beckham, Jr. being comfortable in this offense, there are more weapons for Stafford to survey against Cincinnati's 26th ranked passing defense.

Los Angeles Rams -$135 OVER 3 1/2 Sacks (Bet $135 to win $100)

The Rams could challenge the Super Bowl record for most sacks in a game - which is currently 7.

Aaron Donald -125 OVER 1.0 Sacks (Bet $125 to win $100)

See above.

Von Miller -200 OVER .5 Sacks (Bet $200 to win $100)

See above.

Cam Akers -$120 Receiving Yards OVER 16 1/2 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Akers is going to be a highly utilized weapon today.

Joe Mixon $-125 OVER 24 1/2 receiving yards (Bet 125 to win $100)

Like Akers, Mixon's value is just being open in space, including wheel routes.  He has gone over this number in each of his last 5 games, and could be utilized to minimize the Rams' pass rush.

Big Bets

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Not as confident giving up points, but I just think the Rams are the much better overall team.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Two field goals seems easily doable.

Last Week's Record:  10-8

Playoff Record:  20-15-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-2

Year-to-Date Record:  163-144-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($305)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($304)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($646)  

NFL DRAFT - Hooray Sports!!!

So, we finally have something normal about sports to celebrate, the NFL Draft, even though there is nothing normal about this NFL Draft.  Coaches and GMs in different places - except in Dallas where they are all present in different rooms on Jerry Jones' yacht.  Players in their parents' homes and not Las Vegas, and we will have to wait until next year until we see the players arrive at the red carpet to walk up an reach Roger Goodell.  With virtually all sports - except for Belarussian Premier League, Nicaraguan Soccer and Ukranian Table Tennis - in hiatus, the NFL Draft it is.

First, let's take roll to see if we have a quorum.

Dr. Pepper:  Here

Hopps:  Here

Pepster: Here

Sinickal:  Here

Tony:

Tony:

Ok, never mind.  We have a quorum.  The draft may proceed.

Also, present today are special guests Audio, Prez and Vinny.

17:39 - Vinny here, and already watching ESPN like a crackhead.  (The draft starts at 20:00).

18:01 - Prez repping the Fins!  Fitz is on the honey bun diet and the rest of the team is on South Beach - and I don't mean the diet.

Keep repping fellas, see you in about two hours.

Before the draft starts, we should just lay out for you our personal preferences.  Sinickal and Pepster - Chicago Bears; Hopps - Dallas Cowboys; Tony - who cares he isn't here; Dr. Pepper - Denver Broncos; Audio - Pittsburgh Steelers; Prez and Vinny - Miami Dolphins.  But we still make Vinny claim the San Francisco 49ers and New York Dragons.

19:55 - Vinny:  Nope, just Phins here.

19:57 - Pepster:  You didn't like the Dragons reference?

19:58 - Vinny: Loved it, just very short-lived.

19:59 - Vinny:  Played for the Bears briefly in 2003 also.  Horrible year.  Our home games were at the University of Illinois.

20:01 - Pepster:  That year.  No wonder I forgot.

20:02 - Pepster:  Peyton Manning, Please shut up and go play golf!

20:02 - Dr. Pepper:  THE SHERIFF!

20:03 - Vinny:  At least we don't have to listen to Gruden this year. [Ed. Note:  I honestly could have stopped the conversation right there as we all agree this IS the highlight of the draft, at least until we get to CeeDee Lamb's house.]

20:04 - Vinny: If Phins trade up I might pitch this phone into the drywall.  [Spoiler Alert:  he doesn't].

20:04 - Sinickal:  What coverage is everyone watching?  I am NFL Network.

20:04 - Pepster:  Just FYI - I am watching ESPN, not ABC.

20:04 - Hopps: Goodell's basement sucks.

20:04 - Sinickal:  Now ESPN.

20:05 - Hopps:  ESPN

20:05 - Pepster:  He is just happy nobody is going to be booing him.

20:05 - Sinickal:  There was a rumor that they had figured out a way to pipe booing into this broadcast.  Ah, there it is.

20:05 - Vinny:  Goodell has about as many friends as Donald Trump.

20:07 - Dr. Pepper:  I would have preferred Shakira.

20:08 - I am married and quarantined and you give me a dude singing.

20:08 - Pepster:  Shakira should do every NFL event, but with a different hot woman singer each time.

20:08 - Sinickal:  NFL just filling time now?  Have we ever had an anthem at the draft.

20:08 - Hopps:  Michael Bubbly sang well. [Ed. Note.  It was Harry Connick, Jr.]

20:08 - Pepster:  Draft system must not be fixed. Stalling for time.

20:08 - Vinny:  Harry sings shit other than Christams music?

20:09 - Sinickal:  And can we get some screen shots of players kneeling?

20:09 - Dr. Pepper:  Fauci is the man.

20:13 - Dr. Pepper:  The Lou Holtz of Medicine.

20:14 - Vinny:  Dr. Fauci's voice is like fingernails on a chalkboard.

20:15 - Dr. Pepper:  Goodell is upset at this "quarantine draft" because he is a hugger.

20:16 - Hopps:  Goodell is a tool.

20:20 - Vinny:  Are we all split on ABC and ESPN?

20:21 - Dr. Pepper:  On ESPN.

20:21 - Pepster:  ESPN - No Jesse Palmer for me.

20:21 - Vinny:  Jesse and I are friends.

20:21 - Pepster:  I am sure Jesse is a good guy, but can't watch anyone from the Bachelor.

20:21 - Vinny:  Oh man did I make fun of him for that.  But he did get good tv jobs out of it.

20:21 - Hopps:  How does the director of player personnel have  a better setup than the head coach?

20:22 - Sinickal:  Who is the first team to really screw up here?  I think it will be the Bengals.  No matter what they do.

20:22 - Hopps:  I am just rating people's setups.

20:23 - Audio:  Browns will be the first to screw up - like every year.

20:23 - Hopps:  Cincy already screwed up.

20:24 - Sinickal:  And I am not even including Irvin's suit.

20:24 - Hopps:  Two minutes are gone and they haven't taken Burrow.

20:24 - Audio:  Tua is going to fall to the Patriots.

20:24 - Hopps:  Is Burrow going to cry when he slops to the 3rd round?

20:24 - Dr. Pepper:  Here we go ...

20:24 - WITH THE FIRST PICK THE CINCINNATI BENGALS SELECT JOE BURROW, QB - LSU

20:25 - Vinny:  No surprise.

20:25 - Pepster:  Joe Burrow looks just like his mom - that is not a compliment for either.

20:26 - Sinickal:  The pick has been in for 5 minutes.  The Bengals already screwed up the draft.

2028 - Prez:  The Dolphins messed up this draft and they haven't picked yet.

20:28 - Pepster:  When notified of Burrow's pick at #1, Ed Orgeron said, "Hmmmdmdme, geirlwbfhdh, wha!'

20:29 - Vinny:  Guy chews on rocks.  He just looks like a bayou shitkicker.

20:31 - Vinny:  This gets interesting after Young goes here.

20:32 - Pepster:  Yep. Would love to see a trade at 3 to start making things interesting.

20:32 - Sinickal:  Suzy desperately needs to get into a hair salon!

20:32 - Hopps:  That's a lot of Namath cum in her hair!

20:32 - Racecar (who has now made an appearance):  Joe Burrow looks like Pete Davidson -and that is not a compliment.

20:32 - Hopps:  Chase Young has 4 phones!

20:33 - WITH THE SECOND PICK THE WASHINGTON RACISTS SELECT CHASE YOUNG, DE, OHIO STATE

20:33 - Hopps:  His hair makes him look like Jar Jar Binks!

20:34 - Sinickal:  How long until we start comparing him to Sean Taylor?

20:34 - Pepster:  When he gets shot ....

20:34:42 - Pepster: I can't believe I wrote that - I love Sean Taylor

20:36 - Sinickal:  We all do.  That's why it's funny.

20:36 - Hopps:  He's going to kill QBs.

20:36 - Audio:  Here comes the first trade ...

20:36 - Hopps:  What mistake have the Lions made?

20:38 - Pepster:  Drafting a receiver.

20:38 - WITH THE THIRD PICK THE DETROIT LIONS SELECT JEFF OKUDAH, CB, OHIO STATE

20:41 - Sinickal:  It may be just my imagination [Ed. Note - Running away with me], but it looks like Joe Burrow's family borrowed that house from a black family.

20:43 - Vinny:  (In response to Chase Young's and Jeff Okudah's highlight tapes) - Glad Purdue didn't play Ohio State this year.  We would have been on those two highlights, 100%.

20:48 - WITH THE FOURTH PICK THE NEW YORK GIANTS SELECT ANDREW THOMAS, T, GEORGIA

20:48 - Hopps:  Wow.

20:49 - Vinny:  Tua Time!

20:49 - Pepster:  Thomas annihilated Florida's defensive line in the Florida-Georgia game.

20:49 - Hopps:  Why is Gettelman wearing a mask by himself in his own basement?

20:50 - Sinickal:  That's his attic.

20:50 - Vinny: I WANT SIMMONS!

20:52 - Hopps:  Still can't pronounce Tua's last name!

20:52 - Pepster:  Why is entire family wearing leis except for Tua?

20:52 - Hopps (a BC alumnus):  Flores repping a BC hat.  This doesn't bode well for the Fins.

20:52 - Sinickal:  Where did they get leis during a pandemic?  And whose house is that?

20:53:  Hopps:  Riddick has the oldest football video game ever on his shelf.

20:55 - Dr, Pepper:  Did Kurt Warner have work done?

20:55 - WITH THE FIFTH PICK THE MIAMI DOLPHINS SELECT TUA TAGAVAILOA, QB, ALABAMA

20:55 - Prez: Ridiculous.

20:56 - Audio:  Marino - let him have your number!

20:57:  Vinny:  This kid is made of glass!

20:57 - Pepster:  His is no Fitzpatrick!

20:58 - Vinny:  The name on his jersey will be fragile!

20:59 - Prez:  They knew what they were getting into ... I say, let 'em crash!

20:59 - Sinickal:  Why don't they call him Tag?  Wouldn't that be easier?

20:59 - Dr. Pepper:  Tua Tag?

20:59:  Pepster:  Less syllables.  He certainly doesn't need to buy a vowel.

21:01 - Vinny:  I hate drafting players in theory that won't play.

21:01 - Sinickal:  Is Herbert estranged from his parents?  Shouldn't he then go to the Packers?

21:03 - WITH THE SIXTH PICK THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS SELECT JUSTIN HERBERT, QB, OREGON

21:04 - Dr. Pepper:  It might be the acne.

21:07 - Vinny:  I figured at least one trade by now.

21:07 - Pepster:  That is disappointing.

21:10 - Prez:  Who's going to be the first one to cry when their name gets called?

21:10 - Pepster:  Cedric Benson.  Oh, sorry - flashback.

21:11 - WITH THE SEVENTH PICK THE CAROLINA PANTHERS SELECT DERICK BROWN, DT, AUBURN

21:11 - Hopps: Was Drew Rosenhaus in the room with Derrick Brown?

21:11 - Pepster:  Nothing against Brown, but the Panthers lose Kuechly and Simmons is just sitting right there ...

21:14 - Pepster:  Brown is the first player drafted with a kid clearly visible on camera.

21:14 - Sinickal:  Doesn't Brown's house exceed social distancing requirements?

21:14 - Hopps:  I'm just trying to figure out who the background randoms are in some of the houses.

21:15 - Sinickal:  Kliff Kingsbury, Winner!

21:15 - WITH THE EIGHTH PICK THE ARIZONA CARDINALS SELECT ISAIAH SIMMONS, LB, CLEMSON

21:16 - Sinickal:  Look at that F'N house!!!

21:16 - Hopps:  He's not wearing socks.

21:16 - Vinny:  Best player in the draft just went.

21:17 - Sinickal:  Some of these player's houses are laid out!  This virtual draft will lead to some NCAA sanctions.

21:17 - Vinny: I can count the money in Simmons' pants!

21:17 - Hopps:  That's a lot of ass!

21:18 - Vinny:  Who wears them tight ass pants?

21:18 - Racecar (popping in again):  Simmons' mom needs Spanx!

21:18 - Prez:  Sinickal said he would spanx dat ass!

21:20 - Sinickal:  Not yet, but I would have said it.

21:21 - Dr. Pepper:  Christmas ham ass.

21:22 - Vinny:  Jags are up  Does it matter who they draft?  They are tanking for Lawrence next year.  If I was a Jags fan I would want covid to ruin the entire season.

21:23 - Sinickal:  Was with Marrone in Syracuse.  Want him to do well here.

21:23 - WITH THE NINTH PICK THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS SELECT C.J. HENDERSON, CB, FLORIDA

21:24 - Pepster:  Henderson does NOT look happy.

21:24 - Hopps:  Who wants to play there?

21:24 - Sinickal:  Henderson's crib looks like there may be drug money involved.

21:24:39 - Sinickal:  Or, since it's Miami, we'll just call it "Tuesday".

21:25 - Prez:  Whole family just said, "Gyadd Damn Gina!"

21:26 - Hopps:  Really?  Rolling out St. Jude's just to get pity for the Browns?

21:26 - WITH THE TENTH PICK THE CLEVELAND BROWN SELECT JEDRICK WILLS, JR., T, ALABAMA

21:27 - Hopps:  Due on the left was asleep with his hands in his pants.  They are ready for Cleveland!

21:29 - Pepster:  Willis' brother is definitely not an athlete.

21:30 - Vinny:  Here come the Jets; that fan base is deserving of another bust!

21:32 - Sinickal:  Pepster, it is almost time to celebrate our draft again. The Bears acquire Khalil Mack.

21:33 - Pepster:  Best pick of this draft.

21:34 - Vinny:  Bears paid Quinn a 40 year old DE.  Good job giving him a 5 year deal.

21:34 - Pepster:  Yes, Vinny, and he will have 10 1/2 sacks this year.

21:35 - Pepster:  Apparently Jeudy can give the old "Stanky leg" as per Michael Irvin.

21:35 - Vinny:  I coached against Jeudy when he was at Deerfield.

21:35 - WITH THE ELEVENTH PICK THE NEW YORK JETS SELECT MEKHI BECTO, T, LOUISVILLE

21:35 - Hopps:  Wow.  His dad is 600 pounds!

21:35 - Sinickal:  I will own that Michael Irvin outfit before the end of the draft.

21:36 - Vinny:  Becton is the first girl to cry.

21:36 - Pepster:  He gets it from his daddy - the weight that is.

21:36 - Sinickal:  Who's the other dude?

21:37 - Racecar pops back in:  The pastor?

21:37 - Sinickal:  This may be our best highlight reel.

21:38:  Hopps:  It has to be.

21:38 - Pepster:  Great video!

21:38 - Hopps:  That's a big dude, though.

21:38 - Sinickal:  How tall is the girl in the background?

21:39 - Pepster:  6'8".

21:39 - Hopps - Speaking of tall, Mel Kiper's hair is getting bigger but his head is shrinking.

21:39:  Dr. Pepper:  Tony, are you awake?  [Ed. Note:  He isn't.]

21:40 - WITH THE TWELFTH PICK THE LAS VEGAS RAIDERS SELECT HENRY RUGGS, WR, ALABAMA

21:40 - Hopps:  Now Ruggs will not be investigated by the NCAA.  And, Mrs. Gruden is a spinner.

21:41 - Hopps:  Ruggs is wearing a bathrobe!

21:43 - Dr. Pepper:  That hat ya'll!

21:44 - Sinickal:  An Old Spice hotel robe!

21:45 - Vinny:  WOW!  Hope Old Spice is paying him for that.  That watch was 10gs.

21:45 - Hopps:  Have to compliment the hotel bathrobe with something.

21:46 - Sinickal:  His mom apparently ran a 4.2 40.  I LOVE a good folk lore.

21:47 - Pepster:  Our first trade.

21:48 - Vinny:  Tampa's gonna take the tackle I wanted.

21:49 - Sinickal:  Wirfs got him a corn fed woman next to him.

21:50 - Prez:  With the number 1 pick, I select Bethany from Air Force!

21:50 - WITH THE THIRTEENTH PICK THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS SELECT TRISTEN WIRFS, T, IOWA

21:52 - Hopps:  How are you a dark shark in effing Iowa?

21:54 - Pepster:  And now Emmanuel Sanders' replacement falls to SF

21:58 - Pepster:  Who was the random white girl at Jeudy's house?

21:58 - Hopps:  I was thinking the same thing.

21:58 - Sinickal:  Who is that filthy woman with CeeDee?

21:59 - WITH THE FOURTEENTH PICK THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS SELECT JAVON KINLAW, DT, SOUTH CAROLINA

21:59 - Hopps:  Dude is dead on the couch.

22:00 - Pepster:  Grandpa was the only one ready to be picked.

22:00 - Dr. Pepper:  CeeDee to the Broncos.

22:02 - Hopps:  This might be the way this draft should go from now on.

22:04 - WITH THE FIFTEENTH THE DENVER BRONCOS SELECT JERRY JEUDY, WR, ALABAMA

22:04 - Sinickal:  My man was ready for ANYBODY to be drafted.

22:05 - Dr. Pepper:  Wow.  Love this.

22:06 - Pepster:  I know Atlanta wanted C.J. Henderson, might see a trade here.

22:06 - Vinny:  Jeudy is so pissed Ruggs went before him.  Atlanta will go pass rush, I would think.

22:07 - Sinickal:  Will Jeudy be faster in the thin air?

22:07 - Racecar:  Who names their kid Jerry when you last name is Jeudy?  And Jeudy got that booty!

22:08 - Vinny:  Jeudy with the Star of David on.

22:09 - Sinickal:  One of the all time great combine stories.

22:12 - Pepster:  Four Alabama players taken in first round already.  Record is 6, Miami 2004.

22:12 - Hopps:  Did Arthur Blank get his cabinets from The Home Depot?

22:13 - WITH THE SIXTEENTH PICK THE ATLANTA FALCONS SELECT A.J. TERRELL, CB, CLEMSON

22:14 - Pepster:  Cowboys up next.  Who do you want Hopps?

22:14 - Hopps:  Jerry better to Jefferson.

22:14 - Vinny:  McKinne to Phins, I hope.

22:15 - Vinny:  Cowboys need McKinney.  Heath is garbage.

22:15 - Pepster:  Prez, your thoughts on Miami's pick?

22:16 - Hopps:  McCarthy is till figuring out the interwebs.

22:16 - Sinickal:  Jerry's wife practicing good social distancing.  Or, just distancing.

22:17 - Vinny:  Irvin knocked down an 8-ball about 30 minutes ago.

22:18 - Pepster:  Girl next to Lamb is MONEY!

22:18 - Hopps:  Who is the smokeshow next to Lamb?  [Ed. Note:  Her name is Crymson Rose.]

22:18 - Sinickal:  Yeah!  You late to this party.  I already had my "private time" on that.

22:19 - WITH THE SEVENTEENTH PICK THE DALLAS COWBOYS SELECT CEEDEE LAMB, WR, OKLAHOMA

22:19 - Hopps:  Okay!!!

22:20 - Hopps:  That MF is country!

22:20 - Hopps:  Can we just get back to girl on the couch?

22:20 - Pepster:  Got damn!

22:20 - Dr. Pepper:  Them thighs.

22:20 - Sinickal:  She may be hired help.

22:21 - Dr. Pepper:  Claude Geezus!

22:22 - Dr. Pepper: I need help!

22:27:  Hopps:  The Patriots draft a camera man!

22:28 - WITH THE EIGHTEENTH PICK THE MIAMI DOLPHINS SELECT AUSTIN JACKSON, T, USC

22:28 - Vinny:  Holy packed couch!

22:29:  Hopps:  That couch is not afraid of a fork!

22:29 - Vinny:  Goodell is the stiffest white man alive.  What a f'n dork.  He got swirlies in high school.

22:31 - Sinickal:  This Vegas pick is THE MACK!

22:31 - Hopps:  Flores has a land line.

22:31 - Vinny: Flores - sweet empty trophy case behind you brah!

22:32 - Sinickal:  Roger changed clothes.

22:32 - Hopps:  He's a tool.

22:33 - Dr. Pepper:  Draft next year in Vegas!  He flubbed the year, though.

22:33 - Hopps:  Yes he did.  Kiper's head is so shiny.

22:33 - WITH THE NINETEENTH PICK THE LAS VEGAS RAIDERS SELECT DAMONE ARNETTE, CB, OHIO STATE

22:34 - Vinny:  Who is the midget in the Gruden fam?

22:35 - Hopps:  WTF is the whiteboard behind Chucky?  [Ed. Note:  It was the Raiders draft board.]

22:36 - Pepster:  Goodell must have spooged on himself watching CeeDee Lamb's girlfriend!

22:37 - Pepster:  Raiders with the first really big reach of the night.

22:37 - Sinickal:  So to recap, Gruden took the other Bama receiver, then took a 2nd team All Big 10 corner

22:37 - Sinickal:  That guy probably finished behind a dude from Minnesota.  [Ed. Note:  He did.]

22:37 - Hopps:  Ok gents.  I have a call with India at 4.  Can't wait to read the rest of this tomorrow.

22:41 - Vinny:  Whoever the Jags take, put that guy on suicide watch.

22:41 - WITH THE TWENTIETH PICK THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS SELECT K'LAVON CHIASSON, DE, LSU

22:43 - Sinickal:  Elite get off!!!

22:43 - Found on Twitter:  The NFL Draft takes way too long.  If I really wanted to watch 32 picks in 3 hours I'd just watch Jameis Winston play.

22:46 - Pepster:  This has to be Justin Jefferson, right?

22:46 - Sinickal:  This hast to be the equivalent of MTV Cribs.  No way these players live in these spaces ... yet.

22:47 - WITH THE TWENTY-FIRST PICK THE PHILADELPHIA EAGLES SELECT JALEN RAEGOR, WR, TCU

22:48 - Sinickal:  Finally a house that makes sense.

22:49 - Pepster:  And his dad was in the NFL.

22:50 - Sinickal:  Nothing on those walls.

22:51 - Vinny:  Please take notice of the NFL attempt to keep people out of camera view in an attempt to promote social distance.  You know damn well there are 100 people tucked behind all them walls.

22:52 - Vinny:  And how did the kid with the dad who played 10 years in the NFL get the smallest house on here?

22:55 - WITH THE TWENTY-SECOND PICK THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS SELECT JUSTIN JEFFERSON, WR, LSU

22:56 - Sinickal:  Zimmer's spot!

22:59 - Sinickal:  My hot take.  This draft happened a couple of days ago.  Goodell has cards to read.  Not a single video glitch.  From some 100 cameras on WiFi in some ridiculous places?  The only thing real here is the reactions from the kids.

23:00 - WITH THE TWENTY-THIRD PICK THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS SELECT KENNETH MURRAY, LB, OKLAHOMA

23:01 - Pepster:  Murray is a beast.

23:02 - Sinickal:  Ooh!  Goth White Girl!

23:03 - Pepster:  She must be adopted.

23:02 - Sinickal:  nah, she fucking somebody in that room.

23:04 - Sinickal:  Aye, must be Murray.

23:05 - Pepster:  She's 16 - so, probably Murray's sister.

23:05 - Sinickal:  Younger brother?

23:06 - Pepster:  Perhaps ...

23:07 - Vinny:  Thank God there were no cameras at my draft party.

23:07 - Pepster:  What were you trying to hide?

23:08 - Vinny:  Lots.

23:08 - WITH THE TWENTY-FOURTH PICK THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS SELECT CESAR RUIZ, C, MICHIGAN

23:10 - Pepster:  Major crier!

23:12 - Pepster:  Breaking football news:  Dak Prescott's brother just passed away.

23:15 - WITH THE TWENTY-FIFTH PICK THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS SELECT BRANDON AIYUK, WR, ARIZONA STATE

23:25 - WITH THE TWENTY-SIXTH PICK THE GREEN BAY PACKERS SELECT JORDAN LOVE, QB, UTAH STATE

23:29 - Sinickal:  DAMN!

23:32 - Sinickal:  Aaron Rodgers is going to treat Jordan Love like a little brother.  Or like a parent.  Or like everyone else in his immediate family.

23:35 - WITH THE TWENTY-SEVENTH PICK THE SEATTLE SEAHAWKS SELECT JORDYN BROOKS, LB, TEXAS TECH

23:35 - Pepster:  Consecutive Jordans!

23:35 - WITH THE TWENTY-EIGHTH PICK THE BALTIMORE RAVENS SELECT PATRICK QUEEN, LB, LSU

23:42:  Sinickal:  Packers have not selected an RB or WR in the 1st round during the Aarond Rodgers tenure.

23:45 - Pepster:  The have wasted his career.

23:43 - Vinny:  Kiper's forehead is gleaming.  Easy on the halogens in that room, please.

23:46 - Sinickal:  Bad lighting is THE rookie teleworking mistake.  You can get around everything else.

23:47 - Sinickal - Okay, WTF is going on at Mike Vrabel's house?

23:48 - [Ed. Note.:  This was happening at Mike Vrabel's house.]

23:48 - Vinny: Holy bad mullet!

23:49 - WITH THE TWENTY-NINTH PICK THE TENNESSEE TITANS SELECT ISAIAH WILSON, T, GEORGIA

23:50 - Pepster:  We just went biblical; Second Isaiah!

23:53 - Vinny:  Vrabel keeping it real with a mouth full or worm dirt.  Way to keep it classy.

23:58 - WITH THE THIRTIETH PICK THE MIAMIDOLPHINS SELECT NOAH IGBINOGHENE, CB, AUBURN

00:00 - Pepster: Between Tagovailoa and Igbinoghene, the Dolphins better give their equipment guy a raise.

00:01 - Pepster:  Both parents Olympians is a pretty good story.

00:02 - Vinny:  Jesus I hope our RB is there in the second round.

00:02 - WITH THE THIRTY-FIRST PICK THE MINNESOTA VIKINGS SELECT JEFF GLADNEY, CB, TCU

00:03 - Pepster:  Who is Gladney?

00:04 - Pepster:  Vinny - Jordan Howard is damn good, though.

00:10 - WITH THE THIRTY-SECOND PICK THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS SELECT CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE, RB, LSU

00:17 - Vinny:  The Dolphins picked three guys that won't start next year.  Why do I bother?

As the 1st round comes to a close, there is one clear winner on the evening!

Ladies and Gentlemen - Crymson Rose!  (Yes, I know there are more and better pics of Ms. Rose, but we thought we should just include the picture from the draft.)

The Ole College Try

I usually try to use this write-up as an analysis of this week's games, however, since I missed last week's write-up, and since last week included Alabama-LSU, I am certainly going to be dropping in references to both of the last two weeks.

Game of the Week

(Week 11) - LSU Tigers 46 - Alabama Crimson Tide 41.  LSU jumps out to a big lead, but Alabama claws its way back in the second half until an LSU touchdown puts the game out of reach, except for the bomb Alabama throws on the next play to make it 46-41 with just enough time left to make it interesting.  LSU cements the win with a couple of first downs and stakes its claim to the number 1 ranking.  Great play from all the great players, exciting scoring opportunities, controversial plays (Moss's first down catch).  This game had it all.

(Week 12) - Oklahoma Sooners 34 - Baylor Bears 31.  Baylor jumped out to a 28-3 halftime score, only for Oklahoma to come storming back behind Jalen Hurts, without star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.  Oklahoma puts itself into the conversation for the final playoff spot with Georgia, Oregon, Utah and Penn State.

Best Team Performance

LSU Tigers.  They scored 46 on Alabama, enough said.  Yes, they gave up 41, but in such a slugfest that can sometimes be expected.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Maryland Terrapins.  The Terps lost 73-14 to Ohio State in Week 11.  There is no shame in losing to the Buckeyes this year, but the fact that the score was so lopsided, especially after scoring 79 and 63 in its first two games this year, is especially disappointing.  On this particular day, Maryland's football team gave up more points that Maryland's basketball team.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB - LSU Tigers.  Yes Joe Burrow was great, but LSU does not defeat Alabama without the exploits of Edwards-Helaire.  He gained 103 yards rushing and scored 3 TDs, and added 77 more yards receiving, on 9 receptions, and another touchdown.  He was the best player on the field.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Terrel Bernard, LB - Baylor Bears.  In week 11, Bernard was a monster.  He totaled 19 tackles, including 1 sack and 3 for losses in Baylor's 29-23 victory over TCU to stay undefeated.  He followed that up with a 15 tackle performance against Oklahoma, which included 8 solo tackles, a sack, and 1 1/2 tackles for loss in Baylor's narrow 34-31 loss to the Sooners.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Matthew Trickett, K - Kent State Golden Flashes.  Trickett went 3-3 on field goals, including a 44 yard game winner, and 3-3 of extra points as Kent State defeated Buffalo 30-27 in week 12.  But, Trickett also set up his own game-winner by recovering his own perfectly executed onside kick.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Offensive Line - Texas Longhorns.  If you can remember back to the beginning of the season, and one of the storylines was "Is Texas Back?"  That answer is a resounding "NO", and the offensive line is a major reason why.  Offering no holes for the Longhorn backfield, Texas amassed only 54 rushing yards in a 23-21 loss to Iowa State.  Out of those 54 yards, 27 were gained by quarterback Sam Ehlinger, but it took him 12 carries to even accomplish that.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

P.J. Fleck - Minnesota Golden Gophers.  I do not want to place Fleck here, and in a large measure he does not deserve it, but, sometimes that is the position of the coach.  Fleck ran onto the field after an Iowa defender decked a Minnesota receiver.  Iowa drew a critical 4th down personal foul penalty, but then so did Fleck as he ran onto the field immediately after the play.  In Fleck's defense, he was not jawing with Iowa, or picking a fight with any of the players; it looked as if he was just trying to check on his downed-player, but, he was so fast and was on the field before any other coaches and trainers, that the officials had no choice but to flag him.  I still support what he did, but it helped cost the team in a 23-19 loss to the Hawkeyes, Minnesota's first.

Please note - I am not going to pile on Nick Saban for still having Tua Tagavailoa in the game when he dislocated his hip, as it was still the first half.

Breakthrough Performance

Brock Purdy, QB - Iowa State Cyclones.  Iowa State has had a nice season, going 6-4 after beating Texas 23-21.  But, after playing several close matches, Purdy broke out statistically with a monster against the Longhorns, going 30-48 for 354 yards and 2 TDs, in a game that was supposed to feature the quarterback on the other sideline Sam Ehlinger.

Finally

Shea Patterson, QB - Michigan Wolverines.  It seems like Patterson has been here before, having one good game after failing to live up to expectations all through college.  But, his 24-33 for 384 yards and 4 TDs performance in Michigan's 44-10 trouncing of Michigan State shows that perhaps, just perhaps, Michigan can finally compete with Ohio State this year.  (Doubtful, but perhaps.)

Impact Injury

Tua Tagavailoa, QB - Alabama.  It is still Tua.  This time the question is not whether Tua can be dangerous or close to 100%, but rather how good can Alabama be without Tua, as he will miss the rest of the season (and likely his Alabama career) after dislocating his him and the posterior fracture.

Team Rising

Utah Utes.  Utah, having defeated UCLA 49-3, and covering a 45 1/2 points spread, sit atop the Pac-12 South with a 6-1 record, 9-1 overall.  They have two remaining conference games against bottom-dwellers Arizona and Colorado. Two wins there, and they should face the expected Pac-12 North champion Oregon Ducks.  Both sit at 6 and 7 in playoff rankings, but would likely jump Alabama into 5th, and likely make the playoffs if LSU defeats Georgia in the SEC Championship game (and likely not if Georgia defeats LSU).  Also, can you imagine Utah being favored by 45 1/2 over UCLA?  Amazing job with the program.

Team Falling

Alabama Crimson Tide.  First there was the devastating loss to LSU in week 11, and now the devastating loss of Tua Tagavailoa in week 12.  Will likely still be ranked number 5 in the playoff rankings (or at least should) after this week's 38-7 drubbing of Mississippi State, but Oregon, Utah, Oklahoma and Penn State are all nipping at their heels.

Player(s) to Watch

John Rhys Plumlee, RB - Mississippi Running Rebels.  Playing the LSU Tigers the week after LSU defeated Alabama could be a great time to take advantage of the Tigers overlooking an opponent.  That did not happen this week as LSU defeated Mississippi 58-37.  Despite the lopsided score, Mississippi running back Plumlee ran for 212 yards on just 20 carries, and scored 4 TDs.   

My New Favorite Player

Dameon Pierce, RB - Florida Gators.  Tom Petty, who is from the Gainesville, Florida area and who used to work for the University athletic department, died on October 2, 2017.  Ever since then, starting with the first home game after his death on October 7, 2017, the University of Florida has played I Won't Back Down for the crowd to sing just after the traditional playing of the alma mater, We Are the  Boys, between the third and fourth quarters.  (I know, it is know Jump Around at Wisconsin).  This past week, Pierce was on the field for I Won't Back Down, and after air guitaring and air drumming portions of the song, began to do the Stanky Leg.  To Tom Petty.  Definitely my new favorite player.

Players of the Week (Just Week 12)

It is a shame that I skipped week 11 as there were a ton of great performances See Ewards-Helaire, Clyde.

6.  Jalen Hurts, QB - Oklahoma Sooners.  Hurts led Oklahoma's incredible comeback win over Baylor by throwing for 297 yards and 4 TDs, while also rushing for 114 yards.

5.  Jonathan Taylor, RB - Wisconsin Badgers.  Taylor ran for 204 yards and 2 TDs in Wisconsin's 37-21 victory over Nebraska, setting the NCAA record for most rushing yards through a junior season.

4.  Tyler Huntley, QB - Utah Utes.  Huntley threw for 335 yards and 2 TDs in Utah's 49-3 thrashing of UCLA.  Amazingly, he did it on only 14-18 completions/attempts.

3.  John Rhys Plumlee, RB - Mississippi Running Rebels.  See above.  Would ordinarily be ranked higher, except Mississippi lost to LSU.

2.  Ja'Marr Chase, WR - LSU Tigers.  Chase hauled in 8 catches, for 227 yards and 3 scores as LSU defeated Mississippi 58-37.

1.  Joe Burrow, QB - LSU Tigers.  Three star performances in the same game, topped by Burrow's 32-42 for 489 yards and 5 TDs.

Predicted Playoffs/Championship Match Ups

LSU Tigers (1) v. Oregon Ducks (4)/ (2) Ohio State Buckeyes v. (3) Clemson Tigers

Remaining Unbeatens

Clemson, LSU, Ohio State

Remaining Winless Team

Akron

Rant(s) of the Week

Fans that do not understand the rules.  Yes, I realize that it looked like Moss was out-of-bounds before he caught the pass against Alabama.  But, he was ruled pushed out-of-bounds, and in that circumstance he is allowed to re-establish himself inbounds and be the first player to touch the ball on a pass.  You can disagree that he was pushed out-of-bounds, but please at least understand what the call is, and the rules pertaining to that call - before griping.

Last Week's Trivia Answer

Last week's question was:

President Donald Trump is expected to attend the Alabama-LSU matchup.  When was the last time a sitting President attended s regular season college game between the top 2 ranked teams, who played, and who was the President?

The answer is 1969, Texas and Arkansas, and Richard Nixon.

Match up(s) to Watch

5. Akron v. Miami (Oh) - The Zips are running out of opportunities to win a game this season, (plus it is a generally uninteresting week)..

4.  SMU v. Navy - This should actually be an incredibly exciting game.

3.  Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech - This is one of the four games in the next two weeks that will determine whether Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, or Miami is slaughtered by Clemson in the ACC Championship game.  

2.  Harvard v.  Yale - The Game!  Enough said.

1.  Penn State v. Ohio State - The winner of this game wins the Big 10 East, and will earn the right to play in the conference championship game.  Winner is likely still in the playoff chase, while the loser is all but out (yes, even if it is Ohio State).

Trivia Question of the Week

This should be pretty easy, but, Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor eclipsed the NCAA record for most rushing yards through a junior season.  Whose record did he break?