NFL Picks of the Week - Final Tally!!!!

 

So the Super Bowl is over and congratulations to the champions Seattle Seahawks.  More importantly, I had a winning Super Bowl weekend to cut into (a little bit) this travesty of a football season.  Here are the final results from Super Bowl week as well as the season!

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet:  3-1

Playoff Record: 26-24

Playoff Big Bet:  5-5

Year-to-Date Record: 152-164-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 11-17

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $975

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $521.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,478.20)

Picks of the Week - Super Bowl Sunday!

 

An absolute shambles of a season, and I do not expect this Super Bowl to be any different.  Hoping to find some really good-looking prop bets to try to salvage something for the year!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 1/2 V. Seattle Seahawks

Let's be honest here, Seattle is by far the better team.  But, New England does have a really good defense of its own (4th in Scoring Defense, 8th in Total Defense).  And, given that this spread moved an extra point overnight in Seattle's favor, I will take it.

 

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

New England Patriots versus Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45 1/2

Tough - and I mean Tough defenses.  Both of their averages on the season total 36 points given up.

Charlie Puth National Anthem UNDER 119 minutes

Why not?!

Interception on Playing Starting in the Red Zone -160 (Bet $160 to win $100)

Had to take this bet given the Super Bowl history between the two teams.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Kayshon Boutte OVER 2 1/2 receptions

Somebody will have to catch the ball, and I expect the Seahawks will take away Stefon Diggs as much as possible.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 4 1/2 rushing yards

Seattle will find ways to utilize this weapon, and a couple of jet sweeps might do it.

Rashid Shaheed OVER 32 1/2 receiving + rushing yards

See above.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Total Field Goals Made OVER 3 1/2

See above!

Hunter Henry OVER 38 1/2 receiving yards

A lot of checkdowns today!

Trayveon Henderson OVER 4 Receiving yards

This could be just one reception!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -235 Moneyline (Bet $235 to win $100) v. New England Patriots

New England might cover, but Seattle IS going to win this game.  Seattle has the third-highest scoring offense in the NFL this season (New England's is second, though), but Seattle did that playing a way tougher schedule.  We are well past the time to start believing in Sam Darnold, especially since he has Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Seattle is THE best team today, and it isn't even close.  The Patriots barely beat the Broncos with Jarrett Stidham starting at QB.

Kenneth Walker OVER 70 1/2 rushing yards

With Zach Charbonnet being injured, this bet HAS to come in for Seattle to win.  Walker the Workhorse.

Cooper Kupp OVER 3 1/2 receptions

Similar storyline to Boutte above, but Kupp has been here before.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 50 1/2 yards.

Yards hard to come by on offense + quality of kickers + K Ball.

Last Week Record: 5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 18-18 

Playoff Big Bet:  2-4

Year-to-Date Record: 144-158-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 8-16

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $375

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($453.20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,453.20)

Picks of the Week - CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND

This season has been a shit-show, so last weekend should have been no surprise, even with a great start to the playoffs in the Wildcard Round.  I am not going to waste a lot of my time on this, since I know how it is going to turn out anyway.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Even though Bo Nix may have regressed a bit this year, this team is still way better with him than any backup that hasn't taken many snaps in a long time.  Best of luck to Jarrett Stidham, but I am not betting on it.

New England Patriots -210 Moneyline (Bet $210 to win $100) at Denver Broncos

If I think they are going to cover a 3 1/2 points spread on the road, I damn sure am going to pick them to win outright.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos UNDER 43 1/2

Tough defenses and a backup quarterback.

Seattle Seahawks -2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Seattle has - by far - played the best of any team in the NFL this entire season.  The Rams were at that level at one point, and are amazing offensively (1st in Passing Offense, 1st in Scoring Offense, 2nd in Total Offense and 7th in Rushing Offense), which it will need in going against the toughest defense in the NFL to score against.

Seattle Seahawks -135 Moneyline (Bet $135 to win $100) v. Los Angeles Rams

Just like in the early game, if I think they are going to cover the spread, I should pick them to win outright.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks OVER 45 1/2

This feels like it could be similar to the Week 16 38-37 barnburner.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Even though Bo Nix may have regressed a bit this year, this team is still way better with him than any backup that hasn't taken many snaps in a long time.  Best of luck to Jarrett Stidham, but I am not betting on it.

The Bo Nix injury at least made it so I don't have to even think about this choice.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks OVER 45 1/2

This feels like it could be similar to the Week 16 38-37 barnburner.

I am hoping for at least one really good, fun, close game this weekend - I hope it is this one.

Last Week Record: 1-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-2

Playoff Record: 13-17 

Playoff Big Bet:  1-3

Year-to-Date Record: 139-157-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-15

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1440)

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  ($828.20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,928.20)

Picks of the Week - NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

 

An actual great start to the playoffs, and with a play or two going in the other direction, I could have cut a big chunk into my yearly deficit.  As it is, I am not going to complain as we had some really excellent football during Wildcard Weekend - and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

And this week we should have some more phenomenal games.  In the NFC we have 3 western division teams, which have been the class of the conference all year, and the upstart cardiac Chicago Bears, who get to host a game in 20 degree temperatures!  In the AFC, we have one of the best defenses we have ever seen (Houston), one of the best players we have ever seen (Allen), and two teams that are way more than the sum of their parts (Denver and New England).  Let's get to the games!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Everything about this game screams "Broncos!"  They are coming off a bye and Buffalo is on a short week having played a tough game against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Broncos are the number 1 seed in the AFC.  And to top it all off, the money has overwhelming come in on Denver so far as this spread started with Buffalo -1 1/2.  But, It is hard to look at these games and see that Denver is the better team.  Denver's strength is its defense, where it finished 4th overall.  But Buffalo's defense finished 7th overall, giving up only 3 yards more per game.  And, Buffalo has the much - MUCH - better offense (3rd overall and 4th in scoring versus Denver's 12th overall and 14th in scoring).  And who do you trust more to make plays - Josh Allen or Bo Nix?

Buffalo Bills EVEN Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $100) at Denver Broncos

This line also opened with Buffalo being -112, so the money is definitely coming in on the Broncos.  But, I don't follow early money; I follow late money, and I suspect the late money will start coming in on the Bills.  For all of the reasons stated above, and because Buffalo has the number 1 ranked rushing offense in the NFL, I think the Bills will not only cover, but win outright.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos UNDER 46 1/2

I mentioned above that the Bills have the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL, and relying on a rushing game takes time off the clock - and lessens possessions.  Add to that fact that Denver has the second-best defense against the run in the NFL and this game is going to be a slog.

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

San Francisco 49ers +270 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $270) at Seattle Seahawks

It is one thing to take the points in this game, but the Moneyline?  This is purely a numbers pick.  Seattle is at -340 right now, meaning I would have to be $340 to win $100, so the ML spread is about $610, so I am taking this bet knowing Seattle is likely to win, but taking a low-risk flyer for some actual money.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45

Did you see the last score of 13-3 just two weeks ago?

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Yes New England will be at home in inclement weather, but it isn't like Houston has a high-flying offense.  They win with tough - and I mean TOUGH - defense (number 1 in the NFL in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense).  New England is no slouch in that department either (8th in Total defense and 4th in scoring defense), but their offense is way more likely to be affected by the weather than Houston's. Add that to the fact that Houston has probably forgotten how to lose (as they haven't lost since an 18-15 defeat to the Denver Broncos in Week 9 on November 2, and I will gladly take points here.

Houston Texans +150 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $150) at New England Patriots

Yes, the underdogs are flying here this weekend, as it seems that we have the weakest group of hosts in recent memory for the divisional round.  Honestly, the smart play if probably a New England victory here, but until Houston loses, I am going to keep taking them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

Chicago Bears +4 v. Los Angeles Rams

So I am taking all 4 underdogs, even though in this game the underdog is the home team.  The Bears, even in defeat, have done nothing but keep final games close.  Add to that the fact that the game will be played in about 21 degree weather with wind, and you can rest assured that both teams will rely on their run games, which has a tendency to keep games close.

Chicago Bears +172 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $172) v. Los Angeles Rams

If I am going to go all the way with underdogs, I might has well go ALL THE WAY with underdogs!

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears OVER 48 1/2

This bet makes no sense, even to me and I am making it, but I cannot select 4 underdogs AND 4 unders.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

This game just has to be close, right?

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

I am all-in on this Houston Defense.  One of the best three or four I have ever seen.  1985/1986 Bears; Early 2000s Ravens, the Tampa Bay Super Bowl winner (not with Brady), and this one.  Scary good.

Last Week Record: 12-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 12-6 

Playoff Big Bet:  1-1 

Year-to-Date Record: 138-148-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-13

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $611.80

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $611.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,488.20)

Picks of the Week - NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

 

OK - the worst NFL season of my picking career is finished, and we are now on to the Wildcard Round!!!  Hooray for that, at least.  Since the playoffs offer many less games to choose, I will be selecting each game Against the Spread, with the Money Line, and the Over/Under.  Also, I might have two Big Bets.  Let's see how that goes!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In no way, shape or form do I think that Carolina deserves to be in the playoffs, nor do I think they have a chance to win this game.  But - and it is a big BUT - the NFL placed this game in the Saturday afternoon window, which means the Pacific Time Zone team has to travel to the Eastern Time Zone to play a game on a short week.  This spells gambling trouble, and since it seems too easy to just pick the Rams, I have to take double-digit points.

Los Angeles Rams -600 Moneyline (Bet $600 to win $100) at Carolina Panther

The Rams have the league's highest-scoring offense and the second-best Total Offense.  Carolina is going to have trouble getting Los Angeles' offense off the field, ranking 31st in defensive first-down percentage.  Rams win, but it will be way closer than it should be.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 1/2

The ordinarily high-flying Rams offense is going to be slow to takeoff, and Carolina is going to try to keep this game on the ground to keep possessions low.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Both of the first two games between these two long-time rivals came down to the final play (each with the ball in Caleb Williams' hand).  There is no reason to think that this one will be any different.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional rivalry is always a good play.   And, it is a short week.

Green Bay Packers -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Chicago Bears

But, the above notwithstanding, the Packers had the lead in both previous games, and would have won the second if not for the fact Chicago recovered an onside kick.  Smart play here is Green Bay, and given that Chicago money line is anywhere from even to -108, and this bet is a no-brainer.  That being said, I hope I lose this one.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 45 1/2

I feel like both of these teams could score 21 in their sleep against each other, so all I need is basically one additional score.  So I'll take the over.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been playing great, but even with what seems like a subpar season performance-wise, the Bills still have Josh Allen and the 3rd-best total offense (and 4th-highest scoring offense) in the NFL.  Jacksonville's rush defense is stout (best in the NFL), but the passing defense is 21st.

 

Buffalo Bills -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If I am expecting the Bills to win (which is what +1 basically means), then I have to take their money line.  It is weird that the Bills are favored in MoneyLine Bets and some even have them as favorite against the spread - this is a bizarre game to prognosticate.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers +200 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $200) at Philadelphia Eagles

A healthy, healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey, a wide-array of offensive talent, and a favorable money line all make this to be a good bet.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 1/2

A high-flying offense and a couple of tush pushes makes this the play.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Another Pacific Time Zone team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but this is at night!  These are two very evenly matched teams with New England a little better on offense (4th versus 10th) and the Chargers a little better on defense (2nd versus 8th).   Given this, I will take the points, and an angry Harbaugh over his brother's firing.

Los Angeles Chargers +165 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $165) at New England Patriots

If I think that the Chargers are going to cover the spread, then I damn sure am going to take them with the Moneyline.  It is time for Justin Herbert to play like we all think Justin Herbert should be playing.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 1/2

Two tough, stubborn defenses.

Houston Texans -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers won the AFC north by backing in after a Tyler Loop missed 44-yard FG.  The Texans have won 9 in a row and 10 of their last 11.  And that defense!!!  They finished 1st in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, 4th in Rushing Defense, 6th in Third-Down percentage defense, and 6th in Passing Defense.  Pittsburgh's best offensive stats are 15th in Scoring, and 22nd in Passing.

Houston Texans -155 Moneyline (Bet $155 to win $100) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I am getting lucky on this line as it opened at -175.  That being said, this game has all the signs of a trap for gamblers.  An obvious favorite, but on the road, with a wildcard in favor of the underdog (Aaron Rodgers and Chris Boswell kicking in Heinz).  Nevertheless, I am taking Houston.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 1/2

Gonna be a whole lot of field goals in this one!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco just has too much firepower, and Ricky Pearsall hasn't even gotten into a groove yet this year.  I expect big games from McCaffrey and George Kittle.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

I mean, this has to hit, right?

Last Week Record: 4-12

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 126-142-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-12

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1,085)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,100)

NFL REGULAR SEASON REVIEW

 

The NFL regular season is over, and the playoffs will soon (5 days) be upon us.  So before that begins, let us take a look at the regular season as a whole, and what each team needs to address in the offseason. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (14-3) Took control of this division after a week 5 win at Buffalo, and never looked back.  This team could use a Wide Receiver/Tight End playmaker to take it over the top, given Stefon Diggs' volatility and legal problems.

Buffalo Bills (12-5) The Bills went 3-1 in the last quarter, but still just don't look sharp.  A big-play receiver and a strong run-stuffing DT should be the focus in the offseason.

Miami Dolphins (7-10) Quinn Ewers looks OK and could be serviceable - maybe more - as a starter.  The Dolphins need to get rid of Tua's contract and focus on finding strong, stable offensive lineman.

New York Jets (3-14)

Horrible year for the Jets.  They need a foundational quarterback above everything else.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

The Steelers went 3-1 to cement the AFC North title on the last day.  Despite making the playoffs, they need to focus on a lot; wide receiver to run with D.K. Metcalf, offensive lineman to improve the running game, and an improved secondary.

Baltimore Ravens (8-9)

Injuries to Lamar Jackson hurt this season.  That and a horrible secondary led to their demise.  They should focus on a veteran corner, and a young, talented corner in the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-11)

Another team just crippled by injuries.  They need to focus on a big defensive tackle and linebackers.

Cleveland Browns (5-12)

Cleveland had a very good 2024 draft:  Mason Graham DT, Carson Schewsinger (LB), Quinshon Judkins (RB), Harold Fannin, Jr. (TE), and Shadeur Sanders (QB) all hit.  They primarily need to focus on obtaining a playmaker for Sanders at WR, and protection as well in the OL.

 

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4)

What a year.  Might focus on a big-play corner or pass rusher.

Houston Texans (12-5)

They have won 9 in a row!!!  Certainly clicking at the right time.  Team should focus on a dynamic running back, and nobody would be mad at offensive linemen.

Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

Lost seven straight to end the season without Daniel Jones.  Offseason focus should be on bolstering the secondary and another pass rusher to complement Laiatu Latu.

Tennessee Titans (3-14)

The focus should be on playmakers and protection for Cam Ward, who looks legitimate despite being on a last-place team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (14-3)

Finished the year out 3-1 to secure home-field advantage in the AFC.  They need to focus on a dynamic running back, and a playmaker at receiver.

Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)

The Chargers remain dangerous as they enter the playoffs.  They are solid in every phase, so they just need to focus on adding talent at any position that is available to them.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-11)

The Chiefs finished 0-4 without Patrick Mahomes due to injury.  They need to focus on an every-down running back, a possession receiver with hands to compliment Rashee Rice, and replacement for Travis Kelce!(?)

Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)

Earning the number 1 pick in the draft gifts them Fernando Mendoza.  They need to focus on a coaching staff that can unlock his best qualities and develop him into a star, and protect him with lineman.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

Not the same team as last year, but they could still make a run.  The team needs to focus on the passing game.  They have the players, so maybe a new passing-game coordinator, or offensive coordinator?

Dallas Cowboys (7-9-1)

This team has more talent than their record.  After waiving Trevon Diggs, they really need to focus on the secondary, at corner and safety.  A pass rusher wouldn't hurt either.

Washington Commanders (5-12)

A healthy Jayden Daniels would mean the world to this team.  Offseason focus should be on a complimentary playmaker to Terry McLaurin, and improvement to the secondary.

New York Giants (4-13)

The first overall pick would have been nice, but that didn't happen.  They need a big-time playmaking wide receiver, some receiver depth, and a run-stuffing defensive tackle and linebacker on the defensive side of the ball.

NFC NORTH

Chicago Bears (11-6)

This season has exceeded expectations for the Bears, and despite obvious holes in the team, they do not quit.  Their focus in the offseason should be on a top pass rusher to compliment Montez Sweat, and linebacker talent (either inside or for coverage - whichever help is available).

Green Bay Packers (9-7-1)

Lost a few down the stretch -  including to the Bears - to gift the Bears the division. Still really talented, the team should focus on a true number 1 receiver (I feel they have a bunch of good, not great receivers), and perhaps some linebacking help.

Minnesota Vikings (9-8)

An up-and-down year for the Vikings.  They need to focus on whether J.J. McCarthy is really it.  If so, figure out what works for him because they have the playmakers.  Perhaps some offensive lineman and interior defenders to round-out the roster.

Detroit Lions (9-8)

Disappointing season for the Lions.  They need to focus on acquiring a secondary pass rusher, and maybe some secondary help.

NFC SOUTH

Carolina Panthers (8-9)

Snuck into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record.  They need a lot of help.  With some talent here, they should focus on loading up on both lines.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)

Missed the playoffs despite defeating Carolina in the last week of the season.  They need to focus on secondary help as well as some young blood on offense.  A pass rusher would help too.

Atlanta Falcons (8-9)

The dreaded loser in the three-team tiebreaker.  Running game is sound, passing game decent when Michael Penix and Drake London are healthy.  Some strong lineman (offensive and defensive) should be the focus this offseason.

New Orleans Saints (6-11)

The Saints went 3-1 in the last quarter.  They need to focus on a young Alvin Kamara replacement to grow with Tyler Shough, and lineman to pave the way for that running back (and protect Shough).

NFC WEST

Seattle Seahawks (14-3)

The best team in the league.  Very solid in all phases.  They should maybe focus on a block/catch TE and a pass rusher.

Los Angeles Rams (11-3)

Another really solid team, finishing off a solid year.  Maybe a shut-down corner or a pass rusher.

San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

Easily the best division in football.  San Francisco should focus on secondary help and linebacker help/depth.  Fred Warner is not going to last forever.

Arizona Cardinals (3-14)

Winless in the last quarter.  They need literally everything.  They should focus on deciding whether Kyler Murray is their long-term QB first, and then just grab as much talent as possible anywhere on the field.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the three-quarter point)

1.  Seattle Seahawks 14-3 (4)

2.  San Francisco 49ers 14-3 (7)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 14-3 (3)

4.  New England Patriots 14-3 (1)

5.  Denver Broncos 14-3 (2)

6.  Jacksonville Jaguars 13-4 (10)

7.  Houston Texans 12-5 (12)

8.  Buffalo Bills 12-5 (9)

9.  Los Angeles Chargers 11-6 (6)

10.  Chicago Bears 11-6 (8)

11.  Philadelphia Eagles 11-6 (13)

12.  Pittsburgh Steelers 10-7 (16)

13.  Green Bay Packers 9-7-1 (5)

14.  Detroit Lions 9-8 (11)

15.  Minnesota Vikings 9-8 (22)

16.  Baltimore Ravens 8-9 (21)

17. Atlanta Falcons 8-9 (24)

18.  Carolina Panthers 8-9 (17)

19.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-9 (15)

20.  Indianapolis Colts 8-9 (14)

21.  Dallas Cowboys 7-9-1 (18)

22.  Miami Dolphins 7-10 (20)

23.  New Orleans Saints 6-11 (29)

24.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-11 (19)

25.  Cincinnati Bengals 6-11 (23)

26.  Cleveland Browns 5-12 (25)

27.  Washington Commanders 5-12 (26)

28.  New York Giants 4-13 (31)

29.  Tennessee Titans 3-14 (30)

30.  Arizona Cardinals 3-14 (28)

31.  Las Vegas Raiders 3-14 (32)

32.  New York Jets 3-14 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Minnesota Vikings +7, Atlanta Falcons +7, New Orleans Saints +6, Green Bay Packers -8, Indianapolis Colts -6, Baltimore Ravens -5, Kansas City Chiefs -5

QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams - Drake Maye is right there

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns - Not even close

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers Tyler Shough closing FAST!

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns - Pearce and Emmanwori next

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars - And this isn't even close, but Vrabel will win

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts - Who knew he was this good or important?

Comeback Player of the Year - Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers - Back to Form

And yes, I know the NFL does the MVP, then Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year.  I don't care.

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 18

 

This season just gets weirder and weirder.  Forget the games, Stefon Diggs arrested on felony strangulation and misdemeanor assault.  This must have been so bad that his brother was fired by the Dallas Cowboys, WOW!  Anyway, I lost all momentum this past week thanks to the egg laid by the Los Angeles Rams.  That win, and I would have had a second winning week in a row.

Happy New Year to everybody, and remember, one last week until the playoffs!!!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Statistically the teams are not much different from each other, with the one good part of Carolina's offense (11th in rushing) will go directly against the one good part of Tampa Bay's defense (7th in rushing).  The Buccaneers just don't look right the past few weeks, and Carolina is getting points.  Winner (mostly) is in the playoffs, with the caveat that if Tampa wins and Atlanta beats New Orleans - Carolina still makes the playoffs.  And yes, I know I am going against the home team on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

This game has all the makings of a phenomenal matchup, with the winner taking the #1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC (and a bye).  I am taking the home team on a short week as well as a home underdog in an intra-divisional matchup, so I like San Fran here.

Green Bay Packers +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game really means nothing to both teams, except that Malik Willis needs as many snaps as possible in case he is needed next week (unlikely) due to Jordan Love's concussion.  I cannot believe Max Brosmer is giving up nearly a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is still in the hunt for the #1 overall seed in the AFC, but this line is a lot of points given how scrappy the Titans have been (L8, W, L7, W in December).

Houston Texans -10 v. Indianapolis Colts

Houston could actually be the best team in the AFC.  They have the best Total Defense and the Best Scoring Defense, and now, they are going up against Riley Leaonard at QB.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I know, I know, I am giving points on the road in a divisional game, but this Cowboys team is just too potent when both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are playing.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I think the Bengals win this game, but I also think that Cleveland and its second-ranked defense keeps this close.  Does Myles Garrett tie or break the single-season sack record is the only thing that matters in this game (he needs 1/2 sack to tie).

 

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Yes Atlanta played on Monday, and I should take the Saints getting points due to Atlanta's short week, but if that same Falcons team that played Monday shows up Sunday, look out Saints.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

That Bears-49ers game last weekend was awesome.  Detroit has no reason to play this game, and even though they are professionals playing for Dan Campbell, it is hard to not subconsciously play less than 100%.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at New England Patriots

Just taking the points here.  Ewers does show promise, and Miami's running game is explosive.  Could keep it close.

Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

This Cardinals team is bad!  Rams need a bounce-back performance.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have lost 10 of their last 11.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. New York Jets

The Buffalo Bills have looked rather pedestrian of late, but you know what they haven't looked like?  A team that had to bail out Stefon Diggs.  Plus, the Jets are awful.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs get an 8 catch, 117-yard, 2 touchdown performance from Travis Kelce in his last game in the NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers +12 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Yes, I know that Justin Herbert isn't playing, but 12 1/2 is a lot of points for a team that hasn't won by more than 8 points since October.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

I sincerely think the Ravens will win this game, especially since Pittsburgh is without DK Metcalf.  But, I hate giving up points on the road, and I at least feel that this game could be close given that both defenses rank in the 20s in the NFL in Total Defense.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game really means nothing to both teams, except that Malik Willis needs as many snaps as possible in case he is needed next week (unlikely) due to Jordan Love's concussion.  I cannot believe Max Brosmer is giving up nearly a touchdown.

Malik Willis is playing for a contract/starting position somewhere - and some team SHOULD pick him up.

Last Week Record: 6-8-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 122-130-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($130)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,015) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 17

 

I followed up my worst week of the year with ...  MY ABSOLUTE BEST.  Seriously, a dream week.  Not only did I go 12-4 all while correctly picking my Big Bet, I also went 15-1 in my confidence pick league, losing only the Detroit Lions pick, who succumbed to the Pittsburgh Steelers on one of the more unusual endings you will ever see.  Correctly ruled by the officiating crew, too - Damnit!)

Three Christmas games tomorrow, with more Saturday/Sunday/Monday action to follow!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Washington Commanders +7 v. Dallas Cowboys

By now, this should be a familiar refrain:  "Home Team on a Short Week!"  But, we get to couple this one with another:  "Home Underdog in an Intra-Divisional Game!"  And, although the Commanders have been underwhelming this year, they played Philly close for a while last week, and Dallas' 30th-ranked defense more than makes up for its 2nd-ranked offense.

Minnesota Vikings +7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I do not want to make this pick.  AT ALL!  I feel compelled because each of the Thursday games the home team is an intra-divisional underdog.  So, I have to pick them all because I am statistically likely to win at least two of the three, no matter what, and me trying to cherry-pick which home team won't cover leads to more mistakes.  But, if I did, this would be THAT game.

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I seriously contemplated taking the Texans and their hot streak (won 7 in a row).  But, this is a short week for the Texans, they narrowly defeated the Raiders last week, and despite the strength of its defense (1st overall; 1st scoring; 4th in Passing and Rushing), the Chargers are no slouches on that side of the ball themselves (2nd overall; 6th passing, 8th scoring; 10th rushing).  So, I will take the home team, who I happen to believe is the best team in the AFC.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Baltimore Ravens

This is an absolute must-win for the Ravens, and nothing about them losing 3 of their last 4 games says they can win.  The Packers need a win to relieve pressure for next week's contest, and they are home during a short week.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Nothing can right a pirate ship heading in the wrong direction quite like a game against the Dolphins.

New York Jets +13 1/2 v. New England Patriots

The Patriots are better, and will win, but they will also underestimate the Jets and New York back-door covers.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cleveland Browns

Intra-divisional game with a home underdog, but I will give the points since I have been underestimating the Steelers the entire second half of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett has actually had a good season.  The Cardinals, however, have not.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Saints are on a 3-game winning streak, and will keep it up in Nashville.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Another home intra-divisional underdog.  Yes, the Colts got smoked by the 49ers, but the offense moved the ball and scored often.  It is a short week, so I don't like that, but I have to disobey one gambling rule, so I'll take the Colts to keep it close.

Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window, and like a lot of teams recently, probably underestimating the Panthers.

New York Giants -1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders stink, and without Brock Bowers, they stink even more!

Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

This just means more to the Bills, and I am operating under the assumption that Josh Allen will be playing.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Chicago Bears

Although it is a short week for San Francisco, it is the late Sunday game.  And, if they play anything close to how they did against the Colts, it will be hard for anyone to beat them the remainder of the year.

Los Angeles Rams -8 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anyone even care about this game?  The Falcons probably don't.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

This is A LOT of points.  And, Denver isn't a team that ordinarily blows teams away.  KC can keep it under two touchdowns!

Last Week Record: 12-4

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 116-122-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 5-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $910

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,985) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 16

 

Worst week of the year, and that is all I am going to say.  OUCH!  (Well, besides "OUCH").

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I think the Rams are the best team in football right now, and Puka Nacua might be the most underrated star in the game.  BUT, picking the Rams would violate two betting rules:  (1) Home team on a short week; and (2) Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle.  So, I can live with picking the team I think is the second-best team in the NFL right now (at least until Sam Darnold gets into the playoffs).

Washington Commanders +6 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I hate, nay, I HATE!!!, this pick.  But see the above analysis.  I guess I will just hope that the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL can keep this game close.  UGH!

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Another short week, home, intra-divisional underdog.  Only this time the "favorites" were about 4 feet from losing to the Bears two weeks ago and since have lost their best player (Micah Parsons) and most exciting receiver (Christian Watson) to injury. 

 

Buffalo Bills -10 at Cleveland Browns

Double digits are a lot of points to give to a team with the 3rd best defense (and best against the pass) in the NFL.  But last week was a crucial turning point for the Bills in their comeback win against New England, and the Browns, who got blown out by the Bears.  Last week may have cemented each teams' fate for the rest of the season.

Los Angeles Chargers +1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I make this pick solely on the fact that I think Justin Herbert has to be healed a bit from his hand surgery by now (as he has not looked great the past two weeks playing with an injury), and based on the fact that Dallas is in the central time zone not the eastern time zone.

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Carolina Panthers +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Home underdog in an intra-divisional battle, with first place in the NFC South on the line!

 

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 at New York Giants

If we get last week's Minnesota Vikings, this game will not even be close.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

This game will cement Travis Kelce's retirement.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins gave a potential playoff berth a helluva run, but that ended Monday night in dramatic fashion, and this team will likely lose its spirit as well.  Plus, this is a short week for them, and Joe Burrow might be auditioning for trade value.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos

I am not sold that last week was the breakout that we have all been waiting for from the Broncos offense, and these two teams are remarkably even statistically (Jaguars 17th in Total Offense and 9th in Total Defense; Broncos 15th in Total Offense and 8th in Total Defense).  So, I'll take the points.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Falcons are just better, for whatever that means.  Although, Jacoby Brissett has had a great run as QB1.  If the Cardinals are smart, they are re-thinking Kyler Murray.

Houston Texans -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Kenny Pickett is very aptly named.

Detroit Lions -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Is it time for Detroit to make a push for the playoffs - and man will they be dangerous should they make it - or is it time for Pittsburgh to end a team's playoff possibilities two weeks in a run?  I lean to the former, and given that Pittsburgh is on a short week, I'll take the Lions offense, which is way better than what Pittsburgh saw last week.

New England Patriots +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I fully expect the Patriots to bounce-back after last week's crushing comeback loss to the Bills.  Although the Ravens are still in the playoff hunt (as they are only 1 game behind the Steelers), this might not be the week they catch up.  The last week against Pittsburgh does loom large, though, if the Ravens can keep pace with Pittsburgh).  So, given the implications, Baltimore may win, but New England keeps it VERY close.

San Francisco 49ers -6 at Indianapolis Colts

Philip Rivers' comeback is a very sweet story, but he really didn't play that great.  Definitely not sure that the Colts' offense can keep up with San Francisco, which has scored under 26 only once since November 2.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New Orleans Saints -4 v. New York Jets

New Orleans has clearly given up on earning the top pick in next year's draft with consecutive wins over Tampa and Carolina, both of which are better teams than the Jets.  New York, however, has not given up hope on earning the number 1 pick.

Well, since New Orleans has screwed me over 2 weeks ago picking against them, let's see if the former trend continues (screwing me over) or the latter (winning two in a row) becomes a streak.

Last Week Record: 5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 104-118-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($975)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,895) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 15

 

Finally, a week like it should be.  Easily in the black and looking to get a streak going. Perhaps I am figuring this season out - if a bit late - as I have finished in the Top 4 in my confidence league each of the past two weeks as well.  Typing that is likely my kiss of death. 

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Tampa had better be angry after losing - AT HOME - to the New Orleans Saints last week.  Plus, Atlanta has lost 7 of 8, and the Buccaneers are home on a short week.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Chicago has a tendency to play close games, so the line feels a little large here to me.  Despite giving up hardly any yards (2nd in Total Defense; 1st in Passing Defense), the Browns give up a surprising amount of points (23.2 - good for 17th), but not enough to be blown out.

New York Giants -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Only because the Giants are coming off their bye week, so they might be rested a bit.  Otherwise I hate giving points in an intra-divisional game.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes this is a lot of points, but the Eagles offense actually showed some life offensively last week against the Chargers, with Saquon Barkley rushing for 122, and A.J. Brown receiving for 100.  If not for 4 interceptions and a ton of fumbles, Philly runs away with that game.  The problem for me is that was Monday, making this a short week, but then again, the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, so that is a wash.  Eagles by 3 touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are bad, and imagine what could happen if Houston had just a modicum of a running game, instead of being 23rd in the league?

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

New England stunned Buffalo in Buffalo back in Week 5, in the second game of its 10-game winning streak.  Now the Patriots are getting points at home.  Yes, please!

Jacksonville Jaguars -11 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a whole lot of points, but the Jaguars are 9th in scoring in the league and have the number 1 rush defense in the entire NFL.  The Jets have the 26th scoring defense in the NFL, so this game could get ugly early.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are clearly the better team, however, they are on a short week.  And Justin Herbert looked extremely limited with his broken left hand trying to heal.  If the Eagles didn't turn the ball over 1,432 times on Monday, that game would not have been close.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

This is a HUGE number, but I do have to try to take into account not just the physical loss of Daniel Jones at Quarterback, but also the emotional toll on the team.  I could easily see the Colts slipping out of the playoffs altogether, and this last quarter of the season being UGLYYYYY.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

I am not taking two double-digit favorites in a row, especially after already taking the Jaguars and Eagles as double-digit favorites. The Titans scored more than enough to defeat the difficult Browns defense, and could easily keep this to a 9 or 10 point game.

Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This Broncos offense stinks.  Technically they are in the statistical middle in almost every category, but man they are not fun to watch and not explosive.  Not sure they can score enough to keep up with the Packers, especially with Josh Jacobs back.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I always like getting points at home in an intra-divisional game, and wouldn't it be something if the Saints defeated Tampa Bay and Carolina on consecutive weeks when those to teams are locked in a heated battle for the divisional title?

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two really good teams, and they both can score in bunches - and quickly.  In that case, I will take points.

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys were handled by the Lions last week, but that doesn't stop me from buying them for six points against a Minnesota team that is wildly inconsistent, especially when it comes to quarterback play.  I would have thought this line might be 3 1/2 or 4 after Minnesota's 31-0 clocking of the Washington Commanders, but I am going to have to live with giving the extra points.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Dolphins are statistically better offensively and defensively than the Steelers, and this pick is largely made by the fact that Devon Achane has an additional day to heal his ribs.  I might re-visit this pick if his playing status changes before now and then.  The Dolphins are also hot, having won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6.  

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

In Joe Burrow we trust!!!  He has even given Chase Brown some life as a primary running back.  Hit, some.  Love getting points at home, though!

Last Week Record: 8-5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 99-107-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $400

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

NFL 3/4 Season Review

 

So the NFL season is now officially 3/4 over, as 14 of 18 weeks are completed, but each team has played 13 games (of 17) and no team has a bye remaining.  So here is a look at the season to-date, along with what each team needs to occur over the last 4 games. 

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (11-2) The Patriots went 4-0 during the last quarter, and is definitely looking like a team that could make a Super Bowl run.  What New England needs for the stretch run is for everybody to stay healthy.

Buffalo Bills (9-4) A mediocre 2-2 during the last quarter and definitely showing some weaknesses.  What Buffalo needs is to limit turnovers offensively, and for a wide receiver to step up down the stretch.  

Miami Dolphins (6-7) The Dolphins wend undefeated during the last quarter and are still in the playoff hunt.  What Miami needs most is to determine whether Tua really is it quarterback going forward, so the team can structure its draft around protecting him and solidifying the defense, because he has weapons.

New York Jets (3-10)

Showing a little fight, but still bad.  What the Jets need the most is for a team that has its quarterback of the future to secure the number 1 overall draft pick - like the Giants.  That way, New York can trade its first-round pick this year, its first-round pick in 2027, and Indianapolis' first-round pick in 2027, for the overall number 1 this year.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)

A few weeks ago the fans were openly shouting "Fire Mike Tomlin," but here after Week 14 the team is still in first place in the division, albeit by a single game.  What Pittsburgh needs to do is tighten up its defense, which sits at 28th in the NFL.  Yes, the offense is 29th, but Aaron Rodgers is still capable of making plays when it counts.  The defense has to step up.

Baltimore Ravens (6-7)

Baltimore is almost out of the playoff hunt (2 games out of the last wildcard), and who would have thought that at the beginning of the season.  The Ravens need to start identifying talent in the free agent pool and in college that can help next year.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-9)

The Bengals have shown signs of life since Joe Burrow's return.  If people didn't know before, he is an elite quarterback.  The Bengals need to invest heavily in offensive lineman to help keep him healthy.

Cleveland Browns (3-10)

Yes they have only one win this quarter of the season, but the Browns have found their quarterback for the future in rookie Shadeur Sanders, even if they won't admit it yet.  What Cleveland needs to do is find playmaking receivers to pair with fellow rookie running back Quinshon Judkins.

AFC SOUTH

Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4)

This is the biggest change in the whole NFL, as the Colts previously led this division at the last update and are now in third.  The Jaguars have taken advantage of that slide by going 4-1 this quarter.  What the Jaguars need to do is re-establish Brian Thomas, Jr. as a number 1 receiver to go along with a solid running game (Travis Etienne is 10th in the NFL, and should eclipse 1,000 yards this week).

Houston Texans (8-5)

Houston went 5-0 this quarter riding the league's best defense, by far.  What Houston needs is someone - anyone - to give them a semblance of a running game as Nick Chubb and Woody Marks are currently not getting the job done (23rd in the NFL).

 

Indianapolis Colts (8-5)

Not only are the Colts sliding, but they lost quarterback Daniel Jones for the season with a torn achilles.  The Colts need someone to take the reins to calm the offense and allow their strength (Jonathan Taylor and solid outside playmakers) to flourish.  Could that be Phillip Rivers?

Tennessee Titans (2-11)

Still at the bottom of a high-powered division but showing signs of life and actually winning last week.  What the Titans need to do is keep losing to get as high a draft pick as possible, so they can trade it for a haul to a quarterback needy team.

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos (11-2)

The Broncos went 4-0 this quarter but did not look good doing it.  Denver needs for its offense to really breakout, like everyone saw down the stretch last year, otherwise they will forever be seen as a paper tiger.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4)

A very solid 3-1 quarter, and a balance that makes them a difficult team to beat.  What the Chargers need is for Justin Herbert to recover from his broken non-throwing hand very quickly, as he looked a bit unsure of himself and the offensive playcalling was limited against the Eagles.  They did win though!

Kansas City Chiefs (6-7)

This quarter?  1-3 and 2 games out of the last wildcard spot.  Their season is DONE.  Statistically the main problem is they are mediocre in the running game (17th).  But the primary problem that needs to be addressed is playmakers on both sides of the ball.  Rashee Rice can make plays, but nobody on either side of the ball scares anybody anymore (except Patrick Mahomes, of course).

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11)

Among the worst teams in the league, and they seem to be getting worse each week, going 0-5 this quarter of the season.  The Raiders need a quarterback.

NFC EAST

Philadelphia Eagles (8-5)

Cracks in the armor of the defending NFC champions, going 2-3 in the last quarter.  What they need is Jalen Hurts to play like the Eagles expect (although his connection to A.J. Brown is heating up) and the defensive line to play like the team expects, for entire games!

Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1)

Really coming around behind the number 1 offense in the NFL, going 3-1 in the last quarter.  Need a pass rush to help the defensive backs, as the passing defense is last in the NFL.

Washington Commanders (3-10)

They have fallen off the cliff, going 0-4 this quarter and into the bottom echelon of the league.  Some of that was key injuries (Jayden Daniels; Terry McLaurin), but this team has holes - especially on defense.  They need to fill holes all throughout the defense.

New York Giants (2-11)

The Giants also lost all of their games this past quarter of the season, but Jaxson Dart, a healthy Cam Skattebo, and a healthy Malik Nabors has promise offensively moving forward, along with a find a TE in Theo Johnson.  The Giants need to win the number 1 pick so they can trade back for a haul, with a team like Atlanta or the Jets that have resources - and multiple high-round picks.

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (9-3-1)

The Packers went 4-1 this past quarter to earn the current #1 seed in the NFC.  The rematch against the Chicago Bears in Chicago in two weeks could mean A LOT!  All the Packers really need is Josh Jacobs to stay healthy; he means the world to this offense.

Chicago Bears (9-4)

Kept pace with the Packers by going 4-1 during the last quarter of the season.  A close loss this past week sets up a very interesting rematch in two weeks.  The Bears need to find a pass rush.  Montez Sweat has experienced a bit of a surge with the return of Grady Jarrett to the interior, but they need more, either from the line or blitz packages.

Detroit Lions (8-5)

An unexpected swoon in the last quarter, including a Thanksgiving Day loss to the Packers has the Lions on the outside of the playoffs looking in right now (albeit by only one game).  The Lions need to work on their third-down plays.  Despite a prolific offense (3rd overall) they are 18th in converting third-downs; whereas on defense they are T11th in preventing third downs.

Minnesota Vikings (5-8)

Really stumbled this year after a phenomenal regular season ending in a playoff dud.  What Minnesota needs is Sam Darnold back.

NFC SOUTH

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-6)

Tampa Bay stays on top of the division despite being 1-4 this quarter.  Tampa - if they wish to go far in the playoffs - needs to develop more consistency on offense with the return of Chris Godwin and Bucky Irving.

Carolina Panthers (7-6)

THE surprise team of the NFL this year.  Carolina needs to find a way to score points, preferably some through the passing game.

Atlanta Falcons (4-9)

A team that started off with so much promise, went 1-4 in the third quarter.  What Atlanta needs is a healthy Michael Penix and Drake London for next season.

New Orleans Saints (3-10)

This is about where everybody thoughts would be.  What New Orleans needs is a complete makeover; just blow the team up except the youngsters, start accumulating draft assets and work from there.

NFC WEST

Los Angeles Rams (10-3)

The two best teams (but not two highest ranked teams) reside in the same division, and the Rams are one of them.  Being nitpicky, the Rams need to convert offensive third downs at a better clip, as they are 17th in converting at this point.

Seattle Seahawks (10-3)

See Rams, Los Angeles.  Seattle needs to be more efficient in rushing the football, as they are 18th in the NFL in that metric.

San Francisco 49ers (9-4)

San Francisco goes 3-1 in the past quarter and styed exactly the same in the divisional rankings.  What they need, more than anything, if they want to make noise in the playoffs, is to re-introduce Ricky Pearsall into the offense so that he is a legitimate threat.

Arizona Cardinals (3-10)

By far the worst team in the division.  What the Cardinals need most is to understand Kyler Murray isn't it and that they need to part ways.

POWER RANKINGS - (The parentheses is the team's ranking at the midway point)

1.  New England Patriots 11-2 (3)

2.  Denver Broncos 11-2 (2)

3.  Los Angeles Rams 10-3 (7)

4.  Seattle Seahawks 10-3 (6)

5.  Green Bay Packers 9-3-1 (9)

6.  Los Angeles Chargers 9-4 (10)

7.  San Francisco 49ers 9-4 (11)

8.  Chicago Bears 9-4 (13)

9.  Buffalo Bills 9-4 (4)

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars 9-4 (14)

11.  Detroit Lions 8-5 (12)

12.  Houston Texans 8-5 (22)

13.  Philadelphia Eagles 8-5 (8)

14.  Indianapolis Colts 8-5 (1)

15.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-6 (5)

16.  Pittsburgh Steelers 7-6 (15)

17.  Carolina Panthers 7-6 (17)

18.  Dallas Cowboys 6-6-1 (19)

19.  Kansas City Chiefs 6-7 (16)

20.  Miami Dolphins 6-7 (29)

21.  Baltimore Ravens 6-7 (20)

22.  Minnesota Vikings 5-8 (18)

23.  Cincinnati Bengals 4-9 (25)

24.  Atlanta Falcons 4-9 (21)

25.  Cleveland Browns 3-10 (26)

26.  Washington Commanders 3-10 (24)

27.  New York Jets 3-10 (31)

28.  Arizona Cardinals 3-10 (23)

29.  New Orleans Saints 3-10 (30)

30.  Tennessee Titans 2-11 (32)

31.  New York Giants 2-11 (28)

32.  Las Vegas Raiders 2-11 (27)

Biggest Movers:  Houston Texans +10, Miami Dolphins +9, Indianapolis Colts -13, Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10

THREE-QUARTER SEASON AWARDS

Offensive MVP - Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Defensive MVP - Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns

Offensive Rookie of the Year - Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers

Defensive Rookie of the Year - Carson Schwesinger, Cleveland Browns

Coach of the Year - Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars

Most Improved - Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (last time, as he is out for the rest of the season)