Picks of the Week - NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND

 

An actual great start to the playoffs, and with a play or two going in the other direction, I could have cut a big chunk into my yearly deficit.  As it is, I am not going to complain as we had some really excellent football during Wildcard Weekend - and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

And this week we should have some more phenomenal games.  In the NFC we have 3 western division teams, which have been the class of the conference all year, and the upstart cardiac Chicago Bears, who get to host a game in 20 degree temperatures!  In the AFC, we have one of the best defenses we have ever seen (Houston), one of the best players we have ever seen (Allen), and two teams that are way more than the sum of their parts (Denver and New England).  Let's get to the games!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Everything about this game screams "Broncos!"  They are coming off a bye and Buffalo is on a short week having played a tough game against the Jaguars on Sunday.  The Broncos are the number 1 seed in the AFC.  And to top it all off, the money has overwhelming come in on Denver so far as this spread started with Buffalo -1 1/2.  But, It is hard to look at these games and see that Denver is the better team.  Denver's strength is its defense, where it finished 4th overall.  But Buffalo's defense finished 7th overall, giving up only 3 yards more per game.  And, Buffalo has the much - MUCH - better offense (3rd overall and 4th in scoring versus Denver's 12th overall and 14th in scoring).  And who do you trust more to make plays - Josh Allen or Bo Nix?

Buffalo Bills EVEN Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $100) at Denver Broncos

This line also opened with Buffalo being -112, so the money is definitely coming in on the Broncos.  But, I don't follow early money; I follow late money, and I suspect the late money will start coming in on the Bills.  For all of the reasons stated above, and because Buffalo has the number 1 ranked rushing offense in the NFL, I think the Bills will not only cover, but win outright.

Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos UNDER 46 1/2

I mentioned above that the Bills have the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL, and relying on a rushing game takes time off the clock - and lessens possessions.  Add to that fact that Denver has the second-best defense against the run in the NFL and this game is going to be a slog.

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

San Francisco 49ers +270 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $270) at Seattle Seahawks

It is one thing to take the points in this game, but the Moneyline?  This is purely a numbers pick.  Seattle is at -340 right now, meaning I would have to be $340 to win $100, so the ML spread is about $610, so I am taking this bet knowing Seattle is likely to win, but taking a low-risk flyer for some actual money.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45

Did you see the last score of 13-3 just two weeks ago?

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Yes New England will be at home in inclement weather, but it isn't like Houston has a high-flying offense.  They win with tough - and I mean TOUGH - defense (number 1 in the NFL in total defense and 2nd in scoring defense).  New England is no slouch in that department either (8th in Total defense and 4th in scoring defense), but their offense is way more likely to be affected by the weather than Houston's. Add that to the fact that Houston has probably forgotten how to lose (as they haven't lost since an 18-15 defeat to the Denver Broncos in Week 9 on November 2, and I will gladly take points here.

Houston Texans +150 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $150) at New England Patriots

Yes, the underdogs are flying here this weekend, as it seems that we have the weakest group of hosts in recent memory for the divisional round.  Honestly, the smart play if probably a New England victory here, but until Houston loses, I am going to keep taking them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

Chicago Bears +4 v. Los Angeles Rams

So I am taking all 4 underdogs, even though in this game the underdog is the home team.  The Bears, even in defeat, have done nothing but keep final games close.  Add to that the fact that the game will be played in about 21 degree weather with wind, and you can rest assured that both teams will rely on their run games, which has a tendency to keep games close.

Chicago Bears +172 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $172) v. Los Angeles Rams

If I am going to go all the way with underdogs, I might has well go ALL THE WAY with underdogs!

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears OVER 48 1/2

This bet makes no sense, even to me and I am making it, but I cannot select 4 underdogs AND 4 unders.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +7 at Seattle Seahawks

This is another one which screams "Seahawks" because Seattle earned a bye and home-field advantage as the number 1 seed in the NFC, and San Francisco lost George Kittle last week - another in a long, long line of injuries for the 49ers.  But, Seattle is dealing with a new injury of its own in Sam Darnold's oblique injury which has him listed as questionable.  Now, I don't for a second believe that he won't play, but if this hinders him even just a bit - a touchdown spread becomes A LOT of points.  Remember, Sam Darnold doesn't have the best big game/playoff reputation when healthy (See Vikings, Minnesota 2025).  Plus, if he cannot go - the Seahawks backup is Drew Lock, far from an imposing figure in the pocket.  Add to that they played an incredibly tough game against each other in Week 18 (Seattle winning 13-3), and this game should be close.

This game just has to be close, right?

Houston Texans at New England Patriots UNDER 40 1/2 

And a third straight under.  The weather could play a real big part in this, but through the entire year both teams combined averaged allowing only 36.2 points per game, so this isn't a ridiculous pick by any stretch of the imagination.  Houston's under hit last week and the number was at 38 1/2!

I am all-in on this Houston Defense.  One of the best three or four I have ever seen.  1985/1986 Bears; Early 2000s Ravens, the Tampa Bay Super Bowl winner (not with Brady), and this one.  Scary good.

Last Week Record: 12-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-1

Playoff Record: 12-6 

Playoff Big Bet:  1-1 

Year-to-Date Record: 138-148-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 7-13

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $611.80

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $611.80

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,488.20)

Picks of the Week - NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

 

OK - the worst NFL season of my picking career is finished, and we are now on to the Wildcard Round!!!  Hooray for that, at least.  Since the playoffs offer many less games to choose, I will be selecting each game Against the Spread, with the Money Line, and the Over/Under.  Also, I might have two Big Bets.  Let's see how that goes!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In no way, shape or form do I think that Carolina deserves to be in the playoffs, nor do I think they have a chance to win this game.  But - and it is a big BUT - the NFL placed this game in the Saturday afternoon window, which means the Pacific Time Zone team has to travel to the Eastern Time Zone to play a game on a short week.  This spells gambling trouble, and since it seems too easy to just pick the Rams, I have to take double-digit points.

Los Angeles Rams -600 Moneyline (Bet $600 to win $100) at Carolina Panther

The Rams have the league's highest-scoring offense and the second-best Total Offense.  Carolina is going to have trouble getting Los Angeles' offense off the field, ranking 31st in defensive first-down percentage.  Rams win, but it will be way closer than it should be.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 1/2

The ordinarily high-flying Rams offense is going to be slow to takeoff, and Carolina is going to try to keep this game on the ground to keep possessions low.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Both of the first two games between these two long-time rivals came down to the final play (each with the ball in Caleb Williams' hand).  There is no reason to think that this one will be any different.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional rivalry is always a good play.   And, it is a short week.

Green Bay Packers -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Chicago Bears

But, the above notwithstanding, the Packers had the lead in both previous games, and would have won the second if not for the fact Chicago recovered an onside kick.  Smart play here is Green Bay, and given that Chicago money line is anywhere from even to -108, and this bet is a no-brainer.  That being said, I hope I lose this one.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 45 1/2

I feel like both of these teams could score 21 in their sleep against each other, so all I need is basically one additional score.  So I'll take the over.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been playing great, but even with what seems like a subpar season performance-wise, the Bills still have Josh Allen and the 3rd-best total offense (and 4th-highest scoring offense) in the NFL.  Jacksonville's rush defense is stout (best in the NFL), but the passing defense is 21st.

 

Buffalo Bills -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If I am expecting the Bills to win (which is what +1 basically means), then I have to take their money line.  It is weird that the Bills are favored in MoneyLine Bets and some even have them as favorite against the spread - this is a bizarre game to prognosticate.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers +200 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $200) at Philadelphia Eagles

A healthy, healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey, a wide-array of offensive talent, and a favorable money line all make this to be a good bet.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 1/2

A high-flying offense and a couple of tush pushes makes this the play.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Another Pacific Time Zone team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but this is at night!  These are two very evenly matched teams with New England a little better on offense (4th versus 10th) and the Chargers a little better on defense (2nd versus 8th).   Given this, I will take the points, and an angry Harbaugh over his brother's firing.

Los Angeles Chargers +165 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $165) at New England Patriots

If I think that the Chargers are going to cover the spread, then I damn sure am going to take them with the Moneyline.  It is time for Justin Herbert to play like we all think Justin Herbert should be playing.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 1/2

Two tough, stubborn defenses.

Houston Texans -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers won the AFC north by backing in after a Tyler Loop missed 44-yard FG.  The Texans have won 9 in a row and 10 of their last 11.  And that defense!!!  They finished 1st in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, 4th in Rushing Defense, 6th in Third-Down percentage defense, and 6th in Passing Defense.  Pittsburgh's best offensive stats are 15th in Scoring, and 22nd in Passing.

Houston Texans -155 Moneyline (Bet $155 to win $100) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I am getting lucky on this line as it opened at -175.  That being said, this game has all the signs of a trap for gamblers.  An obvious favorite, but on the road, with a wildcard in favor of the underdog (Aaron Rodgers and Chris Boswell kicking in Heinz).  Nevertheless, I am taking Houston.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 1/2

Gonna be a whole lot of field goals in this one!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco just has too much firepower, and Ricky Pearsall hasn't even gotten into a groove yet this year.  I expect big games from McCaffrey and George Kittle.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

I mean, this has to hit, right?

Last Week Record: 4-12

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 126-142-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-12

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1,085)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,100)

Picks of the Week

 

After two great weeks in a row, last week did me in.  A big negative salvaged only by virtue of winning the Big Bet, which continues to be my saving grace in this NFL season.  If I could figure out Arizona, well then that would be something!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Cooper Kupp back; Puka Nacua returns; and the home team on a short week.  Easy call, even with Minnesota playing really well.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Yes, this Browns team is a dumpster fire.  Jameis Winston could give them some fire offensively and Nick Chubb has a game under his belt.  And to top it off, Baltimore played Monday night.

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Good win in London on Sunday, but now the Jaguars face a 5-2 Packers team that didn't have to travel home from the United Kingdom.

Tennessee Titans +11 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Yes the Lions are really good, especially on offense where they are 4th in rushing, 3rd in scoring and passing, and 2nd in total offense.  But Tennessee is equally amazing on defense as they rank 1st overally, 3rd in passing defense and 7th in rushing defense.  Mason Rudolph also doesn't make the stupid turnovers that Will Levis made.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Two gambling rules at odds in this one (see what I did there?).  Tampa is on a short week, but Atlanta is the road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Tamps looked pretty good at times against Baltimore, and has looked great at times this year.  Wide Receiver injuries hurt, but I will assume somebody will be able to catch the ball (Cade Otton, Richard White).

New England Patrionts +7 v. New York Jets

This fame sucks, and it sucks to try to bet.  I am just taking points here, and nothing else.

Miami Dolphins +4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played Monday night, and they have to travel east?  Plus, Tuanigaminuolepola Tagavailoa returns to spark the Dolphins offense?  And I get points?  Yes please.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Mpore of a gut feeling than anything, but Cincinnati just seem to be playing better than Philadelphia, even with their 3-4 record, whereas the Eagles haven't really looked great.

Chicago Bears +1 at Washington Commanders

I would really liked to have seen this game with Jayden Daniels starting.  Mariota is a solid veteran, but not as dynamic as Daniels, and Washingotn will need that dynamism against this Bears defense.  Damn, they just announced that Daniels is playing, and I am too lazy to change the pick.  I'll just take whatever additional 1/2 or full point is added before kickoff.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. New Orleans Saints

Too many injuries for New Orleans, even with the extra days rest from playing last Thursday.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Seattle Seahawks

The NFL's 5th highest scoring offense addes Amari Cooper with a full-practice week, so I will take Buffalo in what I expect to be a shootout.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Cheifs have been very underwhelming for an undefeated team, but that won't stop them from becoming very scary once DeAndre Hopkins works his way into this offense.  I don't expect much from him today, but the Raiders defense might!

Carolina Panthers +11 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I just really hate giving up double digits in an NFL game.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Yes, Jordan Mason is returning, but Ricky Pearsall is the healthiest receiver on San Francisco, AND HE GOT SHOT!

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Russell Wilson brings some stability to the Steelers (if not more talent than Fields), and the Giants are not very good.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

I don't like giving up points for a Big Bet, but Houston at least is at home.  I didn't like any of these games for a guarantee.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  52-49-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($240)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $545

Picks of the Week

Lots and lots of injuries.  Burrow - out; Mark Andrews - out; DeShaun Watson - out.  And that is just in the NFC North.  Last week hurt a lot for a lot of teams, and for your boy, who had an OK week (I lied - a really good week), but not good considering the previous week was 11-3!  (Did I mention I went 11-3 two weeks ago?)  Anyway, this could be worse - like Florida State losing their quarterback, making it a serious question mark for them to make the playoffs this year, given they have a rivalry game and a conference championship game coming up.  But, that is college, and that is in the future.  This is for today - and it is the N F L!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Home team, short week, tie.  Ugh!

Chicago Bears +7 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Detroit wins this game, but it is the first game this season in which the Bears will be starting their entire starting offensive line.  That's right - it happened in Week 11.  Plus, with their starting running back - Khalil Herbert - and their starting quarterback - Justin Fields - back, this game seems ripe for a backdoor cover because Fields scrambles right for 30 yards on a two-minute drive to lose 31 - 24.

 

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

If you watch these teams, you definitely know Jacksonville is better, but, if you look at the statistics, they are remarkably similar.  What does that mean to me?  Taking almost a touchdown seems to be the play because this game should be close.

Green Bay Packers +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

If this game was being played in the 4:00 slot, I might bet differently, but, west coast teams traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot usually lose.  Except, Green Bay is central, so that is minimized.  What isn't minimized is the Chargers horrific defense - 32nd overall and 32nd in pass defense.  There are only 32 teams in the league.  Green Bay may not win, but they should cover.

Washington Commanders -8 1/2 v. New York Giants

This looks like a huge number given that Washington is 4-6.  But, the Giants offense is last the NFL is scoring, passing and total offense and the defense is not much better at 20th in scoring, 24th in rushing, 21st in passing, and 27th in total defense.  Washingotn's defense is not much better, but their offense is way, way better as Sam Howell has thrown for more yards than any other quarterback in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This line is ridiculously hard to predict.  First, the Raiders have played spirited ball under Interim Head Coach Antonio Pearce.  But, they are a west-coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot.  So, against my own better judgment, I will lay the 2 touchdowns and hope the track team returns with Achane back.

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Cleveland Browns

In a game that is likely to end 2-0; I will take the points.  

Dallas Cowboys - 10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

No offense in the NFL is clicking as well as the Cowboys, and to top that off they have the 2nd best total defense, the 2nd best passing defense, and the 4th best scoring defense.

San Francisco 49ers -13 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It seems like the bye week did San Francisco well.

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Los Angeles Rams

Both teams are remarkably similar on paper, with the Seahawks a little worse on defense.  But, I would take the points in this game no matter which team was reciving them, as it should be close.

New York Jets +8 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills are certainly not clikcing right now, and on top of that, this is a short week for them coming off their defeat Monday night at the hands of the Broncos.  I'll take more than a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

In a game that should be close, I will take the points, especially since Denver, like Buffalo above, is coming off a short week.  No Justin Jeffereson makes this harder for Minnesota, but the game should still be close.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid is 26-6 coming off a bye week (19-3 in the regular season).  And, he gets this game at home.  The Eagles are actually playing better this year, but nobody prepares his team better than Reid.  He is the Tom Izzo of the NFL.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons; Indianapolis Colts; New England Patriots; New Orleans Saints

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Houston Texans should win this game easily, even with the return of Kyler Murray.  The one thing Arizona does moderately well is run the ball (9th in the NFL), and Houston is 8th in rushing defense.  Somewhat negating that "strength", Housston should win easily.  I wanted to consider Dallas, but tehy are on the road.  Same with Seattle.  San Francisco just giving up too many points.

Last Week's Record:  8-4-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  83-58-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $510

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,160  

Picks of the Week

 

Finished in the black, albeit just a little last week, but I will take it.  I am travelling today, so no analysis, just picks.

Washington Commanders -5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Miami Dolphins -12 1/2 v. New York Giants 

New Orleans Saints +1 1/2 at New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Detroit Lions -9 v. Carolina Panthers

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Tenneessee Titans -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Los Angeles Rams +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs - 3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

 

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Awful game, I am just taking the points.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I don't really like this pick, but the other two games I considered, Baltimore and Kansas City, are road favorites, so they are giving points.

Last Week's Record:  9-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  34-26-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $75

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $510

Picks of the Week

 

Last week was horrible.  Just atrocious.  The kind of week that makes it virtually impossible to have a winning season no matter how many winning weeks I put together.  The type of week that would make a lessser man give up making picks forever, or at least for the rest of the year.  I am not that lesser of a man, especially after I eat Thanksgiving meal where I will literally be more of a man.  So, Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I am making my picks for the entire weekend, but I reserve the right to change my mind should a key injury occur before then, or if a key player doesn't play and that player factored into my decision.  But, for the most part, I am going to just let it roll.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears

I wish this pick was as simple as selecting the home team on a short week, but there is much, much more involved.  Matt Nagy has lost the team, and the team has made that clear to management.  Then, apparently on Tuesday, ownership representatives met with Nagy to inform him that he was fired after today's game no matter what.  Then, Charles McCaskey holds a presser to say he specifically told Nagy that he would not be fired.  So, who to belive?  What to believe?  What I believe is that this team does not want to play for Nagy, and the backslide by ownership probably hurts more than helps.  And, Detroit has played tough for the most part.  #FireMattNagy

Dallas Cowboys -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have lost 3 games in a row coming out of their bye week.  Included in that stretch is a loss to the Giants, and giving up 41 and 32 in the last 2 games.  Dallas averages just under 30 per game.  They should win handily, even without Amari Cooper.  Oh yeah, and home team on a short week.

New Orleans Saints +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

So this is the one game out of the three that the automatic home team on a short week is not an obvious pick.  But, Buffalo has lost 2 out of 3, salvaging a blowout of the Jets between a miserable 9-6 loss to Jacksonville and last week's annihilation at the hands of the Colts.  The Saints have the 10th best defense in terms of yards and points, which should be enough to keep this game close.  Unless, of course, the Bills team that we though existed shows up.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This might be the worst game on the slate, so give me the points.  Jacksonville has the 17th ranked rush offense and rush defense, and those are the two highest ranked units in this game.  Ugh!

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I'll admit that I don't like this spread.  I feel like it should be more around the 4 range, but, New England is hitting its stride and is now the 6th leading scorer in the NFL, and the best scoring defense in the NFL.  And Tennessee's problems extend whell beyond just missing Derrick Henry.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New York Giants

Competing algorithms in this one:  never give up points on the road in the division, and don't pick teams on a short week.  But the Giants, who had been playing well, broke themselves by going for it on the rushed 4th and 1 on Monday night (at least if you want to go for it there, call timeout instead of rushing the play).  It also broke Jason Garrett as he was fired.  Philly is on a two game winning streak putting up 30 against Denver and 40 against New Orleans.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a difficult game to pick because Cincinnati might be the most Jeckyll and Hyde team in the NFL.  So, admittedly, this pick is based a lot on feel.  And that feeling is that Pittsburgh is not the same team with Ben Roethlisberger, in a bad way.

Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Is Jonathan Taylor the MVP so far this year?  Yes.  Will Tom Brady win the award over Taylor?  Also yes.  The Colts have scored over 40 in two of the last three games, and have won 3 in a row.  Tampa needed a boneheaded decision and play on 4th down by the Giants on Monday night to help the cruise to an easy victory from what was a close game.  Oh yeah, and Tampa played Monday night.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Carolina Panthers

Another difficult decision.  My rationale is taking points at home in what should be a short game, but really is based upon the fact that this team looks way better with Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa at the helm.  And yes, that is his full name.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Should be a tough, close game so I will take the points.  Denver has the 3rd best scoring defense in the NFL, and 9th in total defense.  And, in a super-surprise stat of the day, Teddy Bridgewater has a higher quarterback rating than Justin Herbert (98.8 to 98.4 - negligible to be fair) (and a better nickname, "Teddy Two Gloves").

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Both Minnesota and San Francisco have won two in a row to bring themselves into the playoff discussion.  Kirk Cousins is probably playing the best football of his life (106.3 rating with only 2 interceptions and 21 TDs).  But, San Francisco has the 6th best defense - 3rd against the pass), and Minnesota's team is grappling with the Everson Griffen situation.

Green Bay Packers +1 v. Los Angeles Rams

So, the Packers are 9-2 against the spread this year, but Covid-toe Aaron Rodgers is 0-1 against the spread, meaning this pick is probably the wrong way to go.  But, whenever Rodgers has something to prove, he is very dangerous - with apologies to Baker Mayfield.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

And speaking of Baker Mayfield ... Tyler Huntley - that is all.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

No team has confounded me more in the past few years than the WFT.  If Taylor Heinicke can keep down the turnovers, they could win on Monday night.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

In this weird year, yes, I am taking the Texans a a big bet.

Bye Week:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs

Last Week's Record:  5-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  84-81

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1,065) 

Picks of the Week

Well, week 17 was a total crapshoot.  Now we are on to the playoffs, with the wildcard round starting today.  That means the below rules apply to the over/under bet as well as to the pick via the point spread.  I will also be picking each game via the money line, and the money line rules will apply.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Bills have had a great season, with a great, but overrated defense.  I say overrated because in 11 of their games they played against offenses is the bottom third of the league.  So, they are overrated.  I trust DeShaun Watson, Carlos Hyde and DeAndre Hopkins more than I trust Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and John Brown, even with Tre'Davious White guarding Hopkins.

Houston Texans -145 over Buffalo Bills (Bet $145 to win $100)
For all of the reasons mentioned above.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2
Again, for the same reason listed above.  In addition to Buffalo's defense being overrated, Houston's defense is 28th overall and 25th against the run.

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots
New England's challenges have been well documented on this site (at least offensively). Plus, I selected Miami last week as well.  Mike Vrabel is not going to be scared going into Foxboro, and Tennessee's defense is 12th in scoring defense and 8th in third down defense. Derrick Henry - the NFL's rushing champion - leads the third ranked rushing offense and can help keep the ball away from Tom Brady.

Tennessee Titans +190 at New England Patriots (Bet $100 to win $190)
Now, even give all of the above, I feel more comfortable taking 5 points than predicting the win outright.  Why?  Because everyone seems to be selecting New England to win.  That makes me leery.  But, with a money line approaching 2-to-1, I have to take it.

Tennessee Titans at New England OVER 44 1/2
I can see each time scoring over 20 each.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This seems like a lot of points for this game, but the Vikings don't actually know what they will be getting with Dalvin Cook. Even if Cook is healthy, the Saints have the 4th best rushing defense in the NFL, and 6th best in third down defense.  The primary weakness is that the Saints are 20th in passing defense, but Minnesota is only 23rd in passing offense - even with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen on the edges.

New Orleans Saints -400 v. Minnesota Vikings
I hate this line.  Just hate it.  But, obviously, if I think the Saints are going to cover 7 1/2, then I will take them outright.  The Saints just look like they cannot be stopped on offense, especially Michael Thomas.  Who does Minnesota have to cover him?  Don't worry, I'll wait.

Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints OVER 49 1/2
Lots of points to be scored in this game, I believe.

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I would have taken almost any line under 7 for this one.  Yes Seattle is on the road, but they are a legitimate contender - just look at their two games against San Francisco.  Philadelphia is game, given their injuries, and given that Zach Ertz - their best receiver left - is still questionable with broken ribs and punctured organs, Seattle behind Russell Wilson should win this one handily.

Seattle Seahawks -125 at Philadelphia Eagles
See above.

Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45 1/2
I can't pick all overs

Big Bet I

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans OVER 43 1/2

The offenses are going to put a lot of pressure on the defenses in this game, especially with running quarterbacks DeShaun Watson and Josh Allen.

Big Bet II

Tennessee Titans +5 at New England Patriots

Even if Tom Brady can summons some of that old school magic (and invent some other offensive players to play with), this game is going to be close, right?

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks -1 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Seattle is just so much better than Philadelphia.

Last Week's Record:  8-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0
Year-to-Date Record:  124-129-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  14-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $330
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($900)

Picks of the Week

Wow - Last week was a complete annihilation, eliminating all of my gains for the previous three weeks.  Looks like a need a comeback week, and 2 for 3 on Thanksgiving is a good start.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears
Chicago is better, but the are the visiting team on a short week, a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, and starting a backup quarterback.  I took the points at home, and I would do so again.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Washington Racists
The contra scenario to the above.  I took the better team at home in an intradivisional game when the opponent was away on a short week starting a backup quarterback.

New Orleans Saints -12 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
If this game was Sunday, I doubt that I would have taken New Orleans, but on a short week ...

Oakland Raiders +12 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens win this easily, I just don't think they score enough to cover this spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Buffalo Bills
Hopefully the teams performance against the Steelers last week left a bad taste in the Jaguars mouth.  I am expecting retribution against Buffalo today.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Two teams fighting for their playoff life.  Carolina at home, and hosting the early game against a team from the Pacific time zone.  Carolina prevails, and covers.

Cleveland Browns +1 at Cincinnati Bengals
I just feel that Cleveland is ready to turn the corner, and a Cincinnati team struggling on offense (27th in total offense, though 11th in points) AND defense (last in total defense, rush defense and third down percentage; 31st in pass defense and points allowed), is ripe for a home loss.

New York Jets +12 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Yes Tom Brady is playing, but how hurt is he, really?  An improving Jets defense should keep this game close, enough.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. New York Giants
My gut really told me to take the Giants and the points here today, but the Giants defense really is not stopping anyone.  Coupled with the fact that despite Saquon Barkley, New York does not run the ball particularly well (29th in rushing offense).  Yes I know they hit Barkley out of the backfield, but including that and Beckham, they are still only 13th in passing offense.  For Philadelphia, it is now or never to go on a run to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I originally took San Francisco here, but they are a west coast team travelling east for the early game, and I just couldn't do it.  Tampa in an ugly win.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at Los Angeles Chargers
Only because the spread is so high.  Arizona is 4th in passing defense and adequate (17th overall) i n total defense, so this might keep things close enough.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Indianapolis Colts
Nothing about the two teams' years says that Miami should win this game, and Indianapolis does score a ton of points (5th in the NFL), but with Drake and Gore running the football, the score stays close enough for Miami to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Denver Broncos
I have to take Antonio Brown at his word that he is playing this week despite having/not having the sickle-cell trait.  Pittsburgh's defense is much, much better than at the beginning of the season, and their offense is 4th in points and 5th in total defense.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Both of the teams need a win to boost any chance at the playoffs.  Minnesota's defense wins this for the Vikings.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).

Big Bet
Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).
I hate picking my big bet on Monday night, but Houston is at home, not giving up too many points, and the night will be emotional with the recent death of their founder/owner Bob McNair.


Last Week's Record:  3-8-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  80-72-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($745)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($160)

Picks of the Week

Two weeks without analysis, that ended up OK.  Let's see what happens this week with some actual pick analysis.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Short week road teams are not supposed to cover, much less win outright.

Chicago Bears +5 at Baltimore Ravens
I don not expect the Bears to win this game, but I don't fully trust the Ravens either.  The Bears played the Vikings relatively close last week, so I expect that to continue, and Baltimore is only averaging 18 points per game anyway, so it might be tough to cover.

Miami Dolphins + 13 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
The Dolphins look like a trainwreck right now, but Atlanta may not have anyone to catch the ball for them except for Julio Jones, who is  a great option, but it does help to have at least somebody else on the other side for the defense to have to cover.

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Minnesota Vikings
I don't normally like taking road divisional favorites, but Green Bay has won 5 of their last seven at Minnesota.  Coming into this game, statistically speaking, the Vikings are more dominant on offense (9th in total yards to 16th), whereas it is the Packers who are more dominating on defense (6th in passing defense to 20th).  Aaron Rodgers likes those numbers.

Detroit Lions +5 at New Orleans
Raise your hands if you know that Detroit is outscoring New Orleans per game this year?  No you didn't.  Detroit is also third in rushing defense, going against a team that is trying to run the ball to take pressure off Drew Brees.  They are going to have to keep relying on Brees in this game.

New England Patriots -9 at New York Jets
The Jets have gone three-and-out on every opening drive this year.  If they do that to the Patriots, they could end up down 14-0 to a Patriots team that is 1st in passing and total yards, and 3rd in points.  For as much talent as people say the Jets have on their defense, they are 30th in rush defense and 25th in total  yards.

Washington Racists -10 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I hate this line.  I was hoping for 7 1/2 or 8.  But, I have to take Washington as San Francisco is travelling from the west coast to play an early game, which is murder on the road team historically.  That and San Francisco is bad offensively (22nd in total yards and 25th in points scored) and just as bad on defense (28th in total defenses and 22nd in points allowed).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Another road favorite, ugh.  Carson Palmer has led the Cardinals to the second most passing yards in the league, but he has almost as many INTs (5) as TDs (6).  Some of Palmer's yards can be attributed to the fact that they HAVE to pass, since they cannot run after the loss of David Johnson.  I am not sure that Adrian Peterson can help with that.  Palmer, and possible Peterson, are shells of their former selves.  Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is second in passing yards per game, with Dough Martin now back after a full game under his belt.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 v. L.A. Rams
The Jaguars - behind Leonard Fournette - are number one in the league in rushing at 165.2 yards per game, and the Rams are 27th in rushing defense.  Gurley will get his yards as well, but this game is about Leonard Fournette.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes the Chiefs are undefeated.  Yes the Steelers have not been as dominating as expected this year (see loss to Chicago Bears).  So, this looks like Kansas City in a romp.  However, Kansas City's defenses is 27th in total  yards allowed and 25th in passing yards allowed.  I think Antonio Brown is going to have a huge game.  Kareem Hunt can have a big game as well as the Steelers are 28th in rushing defense.

Oakland Raiders -3 v. L.A. Chargers
Offensively the Raiders have been horrible (30th in total yards; 26th in passing yards), but Derek Carr's return has to give them a spark and Amari Cooper some receptions, right?

Denver Broncos -13 v. New York Giants
Big line for a Sunday night game, but the Giants are horrible, and they lost almost every receiver on their roster.  It is time for the practice squad to try to step up against Denver's 1st ranked defense.  Won't happen.

Indianapolis Colts +7 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The only winners in this game are those that do not watch.  Bad offenses (Indianapolis is 25th and Tennessee is 24th).  Bad defenses (Colts are 31st and Titans are 22nd).  I'll take the points, because, why not.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
DeShaun Watson is coming into his own, and the Browns have already made a QB change to Hogan.  The Texans are 4th in the league in scoring at 28.8 points per game, and the Browns are only 25th in points allowed.  Look for Watson, Miller, Hopkins, et. al. to have huge numbers today.
A lot of points to give up for a big bet, but the Texans are at home, whereas the Packers are giving up points on the road, and Denver is giving 13.  I also thought about Jacksonville, but its Jacksonville.

Last Two Weeks' Record:  16-13-1
Last Two Weeks' Big Bet:  1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  37-38-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $155
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($705)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

A time to re-set the mindset from the season (even though I finished with three straight winning weeks (percentage-wise, lost a small amount last week).  Let's just dive right in.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
There is no question that the Raiders are the much better team, except for say, they have to start their third-string rookie quarterback for the first time in the playoffs on the road against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense.

Houston Texans -150 v. Oakland Raiders (Bet $150 to win $100)
I think that it goes without saying that if I am going to pick the Texans to win by more than a field goal, that they would win the game outright.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (37 1/2) UNDER
Brock Osweiler hosting Conner Cook.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's defense has been less than stellar since Earl Thomas has went down, and they struggled to defeat the lowly San Francisco 49ers in week 17 after losing to the Arizona Cardinals at home the previous week.  Matthew Stafford has had a helluva season (more yards, more touchdowns and less interceptions than Russel Wilson).  Since the retirement of Calvin Johnson Stafford has been forced to spread the ball around.  He will miss Theo Riddick as a running back, hell, he will miss a running game, but look for Eric Ebron to make a big play or three with Earl Thomas not in the game.

Detroit Lions +325 at Seattle Seahawks (Bet $100 to win $325)
This isn't the same Seahawks teams as in the past.  Thomas Rawls has only averaged 3.2 yards per rush in filling in for the retired Marshawn Lynch, and Christine Michael is in Green Bay.  I really shouldn't trust the Lions, or Matt Stafford for that matter, but the +325 line is too hard to pass up.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (44) OVER
Somebody has to score in the NFL, and since Houston will beat Oakland 12-6, the points have to be scored in this game.

Miami Dolphins +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but that was primarily because they knocked out Ben Roethlisberger (enter Landry Jones), and because nobody was prepared for Jay Ajayi.  Well, guess what, people are prepared for Jay Ajayi and they still cannot really stop him.  This game stays pretty close, even though Pittsburgh is hot.  The pass rush of Ndamukong Suh inside and Cameron Wake with Dion Jordan (ha - that's funny) outside will put lots of pressure on Roethlisberger.

Miami Dolphins +475 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $100 to win $475)
Now I honestly think Pittsburgh is going to win this game, but Pittsburgh is going off at -650 (other sites have between -600 and -650), which means the payoff opportunity is not there.  So, if there is even chance that Miami could win this game - and obviously there is because it already happened earlier this year - I am going to take that chance.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (46) OVER
If both teams hit their statistical averages in scoring, and are around the statistical averages in points allowed, then this is right at the number.  I think it will be a bit more high scoring than that, say, 28-24.

Green Bay Packers -5 v. New York Giants
This is honestly the toughest one for me to pick as I don't know how this game is going to go.  I have not thought that the Giants were very good all year.  They cannot run, and in fact, were outrused by the Packers who are on their 37th starting tailback this season - and he is a Tight End.  The Giants are 23rd in passing defense, which should favor the Packers, but safety Landon Collins has 5 interceptions, and is playing like the best safety in football.  That being said, Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, having won 6 straight.  I will ake the Packers to win more easily than most think.

Green Bay Packers -230 v. New York Giants (Bet $230 to win $100)
For much of the same reason as outlined above.  I really feel that the Packers are going to win this game outright, and at -230, it isn't that bad of a risk to win $100, especially considering that the Giants are only at +190 (some books at +200).  Give me Aaron Rodgers.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (44 1/2) OVER
Green Bay might score 31 by themselves.


Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  132-121-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,560)

NFL Wild Card Roundtable

Pepster:  It is that time of year, ladies and gentlemen, where the best of the best football players in the world start the competition for Super Bowl Champion.  That's right, it's Wildcard Weekend, with four (almost) scintillating competitions that begin this afternoon.  Let's jump right it, and we will take the games in the order that they will be played.  First up:  Oakland and Houstson.

Sinickal:  Excuse me?  That is the first playoff game of the year?  Can we just fast forward to next week?

Hopps:  I probably won't even watch.

Pepster:  OK,I hear you.  So we don't start off with the most attractive of matchups, especially given the Brock Osweiler/Conner Cook quarterback competition.  Which sounds like something that should be said during training camp for third string.

Hopps:  This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that a quarterback will be making his first career start in the postseason.  Good luck Conner Cook, you are going to need it.

Sinickal:  The over/under on Cook completions should be 2.

Pepster:  That might be a little low, so I'll take that over, but the Texans did finish the season with the number one defense in terms of total yards (but 11th in points).  Good thing for them that they are a whopping 29th in total yards on offense (but they are T28th in points).

Hopps:  Speaking of Houston's defense, I predict that Michael Crabtree will get his chain snatched again.

Sinickal:  That is where we disagree.  Crabtree will be wearing a padlock around his neck.  That might slow him down a bit, though.

Pepster, Sinickal, Hopps (in unison):  Texans.

Pepster:  Let's turn to tonight's game in Seattle as the Seahawks  host the Detroit Lions.  Matthew Stafford has had by most standards, a helluva year, especially given the retirement of Calvin Johnson and virtually every running back on the team.

Sinickal:  Stafford will break his thumb on this throwing hand - because that's what the Lions do.

Hopps:  The Lions haven't won a playoff game since Barry Sanders.  BARRY SANDERS.

Pepster:  Well, both of those may be true, but this isn't the same Seahawks team as the previous few years.  They struggled early (boring close win [12-10] over the Dolphins in week 1 when the Dolphins started pre-retirement Arian Foster), they struggled late (losing at home to Arizona in week 16 and barely beating a despicably bad San Francisco team 25 - 23 in week 17).  They just haven't been the same since Earl Thomas went out.  Part of what makes the "Legion of Boom" great is all of them collectively, and Thomas is likely the best.

Sinickal and Hopps (in unison):  BUT IT'S THE LIONS!

Pepster:  I am going with Detroit.  Stafford throws for 330 and 3 touchdowns.

Sinckal and Hopps:  HA! HA! HA!

Sinickal:  Wait, you're serious?

Hopps:  Given me Seattle.

Sinickal:  Me too.  Good luck with that.

Pepster:  Hopefully tomorrow's games will be more enticing that the dreck we have tonight.  Let's go to the early game where the Miami Dolphins are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers are a 10 point favorite.  Now, honestly, this I do not understand.  The Dolphins defeated the Steelers earlier this season - albeit at home - after knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game.  Their defense bottled up Le'Veon Bell nicely, who only gained 53 yards rushing (+55 yards receiving).  Should this really be a 10 point spread.

Sinickal:  Well, Matt Moore is pretty nice as far as backup quarterbacks go, but I think Ryan Tannehill gets into this game for at least one snap just so he can say he played in a playoff game.  Come to think of it, so will Brock Osweiler!

Hopps:  Not that I am a big Tom Savage fan, but GOOD GOD - BROCK OSWEILER.

Pepster:  Anyway - let's get back to the Dolphins/Steelers game.

Sinickal:  Pittsburgh, easy.

Hopps:  I concur.

Pepster:  It's unanimous.  Steelers.  Primarily because I do not want to see the Dolphins play at New England next week.  Last game, New York Giants at 11-5 travel to the higher seeded Green Bay Packers at 10-6.  Predictions?

Sinickal:  Aaron Rodgers is pushed out at the sideline for a first down in the second quarter next to Eli Manning, where the two set into a heated squabble over who is the greatest playoff QB ever. Strangely missing from that conversation is Joe Montana.

Hopps:  Well, the last two times the Giants went to Green Bay they went on to win a Super Bowl.  Eli has a much better post season record in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers.

Pepster:  Guys, are we really getting into the minutiae of which quarterback is better in one specific stadium?

Sinickal:  I didn't mean for us to get into that discussion, I just think Eli and Aaron will.

Hopps:  I will get into any argument I want.

Pepster:  Well, I will never give any credit to Aaron Rodgers, so to try to seem neutral, I will compliment Green Bay's left tackle, David Bakhtiari who, with all apologies to Tyron Smith, was the best left tackle in football this year.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  No, that is Baltimore Ravens guard John Urschel, who while playing in the NFL just started pursuing his Ph.D. in Mathematics at M.I.T., was named to Forbes "30 under 30" list in the field of science, has had six peer reviewed mathematics papers (with 3 more ready for review), and he specializes in spectral graph theory, numerical linear algebra and machine learning.

Sinickal:  I was talking about you!

Hopps:  Well, you both have points there.

Pepster:  So, who is going to win?

Hopps:  Giants.

Sinickal:  Packers.

Pepster:  Green Bay has gone through Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Knile Davis, John Kuhn, Christine Michael at Running Back, and even Offensive Coordinator Edgar Bennett thought about coming out of retirement before they settled on Tight End Ty Montgomery as their go-to tailback.  They still have a better rushing attack then the Giants.  Packers.

Any last thoughts

Sinickal:  Can we just get to next week?

Hopps:  So you can watch my Cowboys?

Sinickal:  Dope.

Pepster:  See everyone here next week.