Picks of the Week

 

So, back in the red.  Not out of the hole yet, but a much better week.  And, I did my picks ahead of time for last week, so will do that again, making my picks for all of the games ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown!!!  Happy Thanksgiving to all, and may we all be thankful for another winning week!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions -9 1/2

I do not think the Bears will beat Detroit - they won't - but they have played both divisional rivals close in the last two weeks, covering both spreads as they lost to the Packers by 1 and the Vikings by 3.  Maybe a 28-20 type of loss here tomorrow?  And yes, I know, short week and all, but there are three Thursday games,, plus one Friday, so have to try one road team.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Miami has won 3 in a row, after a close loss to Buffalo, so they are cruising with Tua back behind center.  Jordan Love has an 18:11 TD:INT ratio, and will likely throw one tomorrow.

Kansas City Chiefs -13 v. Las Vegas Raiders

So the Chiefs have been in a lot of close games, and there is no way they should cover this spread given their performances this year.  But, they are home on a short week, Isaiah Pacheco migh be back to give the running game a boost, and the Raiders lost Gardner Minshew for the season, meaning Desmond Ridder picks up the start, although even they cannot decide if it's Ridder or Aiden O'Connell.

Houston Texans -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston needs a win after losing to the Titans, despite forcing 19,000 turnovers, just like they lost to the Lions 3 weeks ago, after making 5 interceptions.  This defense is humming, and the Jaguars offense doesn't need that, although it is rumored that Trevor Lawrence is practicing, and Brian Thomas might be back.  Won't matter.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers face the double-whammy of playing in the east coast in the 1:00 time slot AND having played Monday night, so this is a short week.  The loss of J.K. Dobbins - if he is indeed out with a knee strain, could also seriously hurt.  Give me the noon nightmare.

Tennessee Titans +5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Tennessee snuck up with a win last week against Houston, and Will Levis has been playing somewhat well.  The Commanders are on a three-game losing streak.  I do not expect that streak to continue, as they should still pull this out, but Tennessee's 1st overall defense and 1st in passing defense could really challenge Washington, and keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona keeps looking on the verge to really take off, but they haven't.  Minnesota is 9th in scoring and 5th in scoring defense.  That is a really good combination, especially since their #1 ranked rush defense could tymie Arizona's 6th ranked rushing offense.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at New England Patriots

Since Anthony Richardson is so up-and-down, and the Colts beat the Jets two weeks ago, and lost to Detroit last week (no harm there), perhaps Richardson is up this week.  That is really my unscientific and unmathematical analysis.  But, evern though Indianapolis is 1-4 in their last 5, those losses have been to the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans.  All playoff teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

I don't know how Pittsburgh is doing it either, honestly, but their 7th overall defense (4th in rush and scoring) is the best place to start.  The Bengals #1 passing offense will look to take advantage of the Steelers relative weekness against the pass (17th).  Me, I'll just take the points in almost any AFC North matchup.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Jets

I hate making this pick since the game is in the 1:00 time slot in New Jersey, but I believe Geno Smith will find a way to outshine Aaron Rodgers, who may have already caused the team to turn against him.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Of all the teams way back in the standings, I expect the Dolphins to make the most interesting playoff run, but that is only because the Rams, at 5-6, are only 1 game off the lead of the NFC West.  Being this close with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for a large swath of the beginning of the season, is dangerous for the reast of the NFC West.  They should handle New Orleans, who is coming off a bye week that may have stopped their momentum from a two-game win streak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young has definitely improved since his return from the bench, but Baker Mayfield looks posed to capitalize on a healthy Mike Evans in his return from injury with one full game under his belt.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I am soooo looking forward to this game.  I am taking Philadelphia because among great teams I would prefer to take the points, but also because Baltimore played on Monday, making this a short week for them.  Both teams only real weakness (Baltimore 31st pass defense/Philadelphia 25th pass offense) will compete against each other, as will their strengths (Baltimore's number 1 total offense/Philadelphia's number 2 total defense; Philadelphia's number 1 rush offense/Baltimores #2 rush defense).  Like I wrote, I am looking forward to this game. 

Buffalo Bills -7 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is just too banged up right now to really compete.  Buffalo is only one-game behind Kansas City in the fight for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 v. Clevleand Browns

Two teams I can never figure out, but in this scenario I know Denver is actually good, and Cleveland is not.  If I am going to be surprised, so be it.  Give me the good team.

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

This is not me picking Cooper Rush, but rather the fact that Dallas' defense has the chance to just thoroughly humiliate a quarterback that likely should not even be in the NFL.  I know it is a Thanksgiving Thursday game, and short week games are difficult to prognosticate, but I see nothing more obvious than this game this week.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  85-87-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($845)

Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!!  And we all know what Thanksgiving means ...  NFL Football!!!  Time for me to say thank you to all you readers - or both readers - wichever is most accurate!  I am happy that from time-to-time you pay attention to my musings.  Although I don't expect anybody to necessarily read this, I do appreciate when I find out that you do!  Enjoy Thanksgiving and football!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Listen, after watching the Bears take the Lions down to the wire last weekend, there is no way that I like this pick, but it is a short week, and the Lions are home.  Plus, I feel like they think they have something to prove after last week's close call.

Dallas Cowboys -13 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Two gambling rules facing off against each other:  (1) Take the home team on a short week versus (2) Take double digit intradivsional underdog.  Not sure exactly what to do here, but Dallas' offense has really been clicking and the Commanders' defense is missing Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  I hate giving up double digits, but why not.

San Francisco 49ers -7 at Seattle Seahawks

OK, so this isn't the home team, but, home team on short weeks only cover 2/3rds of the time.  So, this is my 1/3rd prediction, especially since I don't expect Geno Smith to be back to 100%, and gthey only have the 19th best offense even when he is.

New York Jets +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Another home team/short week as this game is on Friday.  I am taking the Jets just because they have the 5th best passing defense and the 9th best total defense.  Not sure how many points the Jets will score under Tim Boyle, but I think the defense can keep the score low, so I will take 9 1/2.

Houston Texans +2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars seem like the better team, but they have the 29th ranked passing defense going up against Houston's 2nd ranke passing offense.  They both give up approximately the same amount of points (20.4 for Jacksonville and 20.8 for Houston), so I will take the points at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Unknown qualities here - Jake Browning for Cincinnati and new offensive play caller for Pittsburgh.  In that scenario, I'll take TJ Watt.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers continue their march to the Chicago Bears #1 overall pick!  Honestly, not a lot of thought to this one, taking the home below average team over the visiting awful team.

New Orleans Saints +1 at Atlanta Falcons

Two pretty good defenses, and two very average offenses.  One team has Arthur Smith coaching, so I will take a point and take the other team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Two teams that are way better than their record, but way worse statistically than their play.  Of note is Tampa's sixth-ranked rush defense going against Indianapolis' 10th ranked rush offense.  If I think it is going to be close, I'll take the points.

New York Giants +3 1/2 v. New England Patriots

If we can get the Giants team that played the Commanders last week, this should be easy; but no guarantee that happens.  Either way New England isn't that much better, so I'll take points.

Cleveland Browns +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Denver is much improved from the beginning of the year, but this Browns defense is no joke.  First overall, first in passing yards, first in 3rd down defense, 6th in scoring and 11th in rushing defense.  And I get points?  I feel like Dorian Thompson-Robinson is athletic enough to make the plays when he needs to do so, and the defense keeps the Broncos from scoring too much.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played well in a loss last week to Houston, and Kyler Murray is back with a game under his belt, but the Rams should get Khyren Williams back with Matthew Stafford.  I'll take the Rams.

Buffalo Bills +3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Bills are spiraling offensively, and especially turnover-wise, but Philadelphia is coming off a tough Monday night win over the Chiefs, which could affect them this week (plus it's a short week with Thanksgiving in the middle).  I'll take the points and the somewhat normal week.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders are playing inspired ball under Antonio Pearce, and although they may not win this game, Kansas City drops enough balls to keep this within a touchdown.  The Raiders limited the Dolphins to only 20 points last week, so that could continue, plus the Chiefs are coming off a heartbreaker on Monday night, and the short week - with a Thanksgiving interruption - doesn't bode well for the Chiefst to have to travel to Vegas.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

The NFL's worst pass defense and total defense hosting Lamar Jackson's 4th highest scoring offense and 6th best total offense.  Although the Chargers have offensive talent, the Ravens look to distance themselves a bit from the AFC North, with the injuries to Joe Burrow and DeShaun Watson.

Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Bears played Detroit great for 55 minutes last week.  If they can do that this week, this game will be close enough for a cover.  The Bears are 4th in rushing offense and second in rushing defense.  In most years without Matt Eberflus coaching that produces a winning team.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Unknown qualities here - Jake Browning for Cincinnati and new offensive play caller for Pittsburgh.  In that scenario, I'll take TJ Watt.

I don't like any of these games for my big bet, as the ones that I feel most sure about have some big spreads.  So, I'll just bet against Jake Browning.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  89-66-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,715  

Picks of the Week

 

A winning week, but just 2 plays away from a HUGE week, as the Big Bet pushed, and the Patriots covered on a last-minute punt return.    UGH!!!  But, I will take a winning week for sure.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Detroit Lions +9 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Dallas Cowboys -10 v. New York Giants

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. New England

Home teams on short weeks cover just over 2/3rds of the time, and that is exactly what happened here!  A Micah Parsons unsportsmanlike conduct penalty which directly led to a Giant touchdown with 12 seconds left is the only thing that kept this from being a sweep!

New York Jets -7 v. Chicago Bears

A lack of Justin Fields, and a lack of Zach Wilson, wins this for the Jets.  And let's be straight - Justin Fields SHOULD NOT play!

Denver Broncos -1 at Carolina Panthers

In a captivating 22nd overall offense versus 32nd overall offense, I'll take the 2nd ranked defense.  Plus, Denver is in the Mountain Time Zone, not the Pacific, so the 1:00 start time doesn't worry me as much.

 

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

Houston Texans +14 at Miami Dolphins

Two touchdowns is a lot of points to give up at the start of an NFL game.  Houston with a backdoor cover, maybe?

Tennessee Titans +1 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, this Bengals team is a pass-first, run-second offense (4th in the NFL, 28th in the NFL respectively).  But, at least the threat of Joe Mixon could slow down a safety every now and then.  Now, with no Joe Mixon, Joe Burrow is going to have to do it all, likely without J'Marr Chase.

Cleveland Browns +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is largely a pick on emotion.  Not my emotion, but picking on Cleveland's emotion.  This might be Jacoby Brissett's last start as DeShaun Watson is due back, and he is coming off a 324 yard, 3 touchdown game.  Brissett's audition for a team for next year goes well.

Baltimore Ravens -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is just a gut bet as statistically these teams are very similar (Baltimore 14th total offense and 16th total defense; Jacksonville 8th total offense and19th total defense), except in scoring.  Baltimore scores just enough to cover - 27-20.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Arizona Cardinals

In this game of mediocrity, I will take points at home, especially with Kyler Murray returning.  Well, that was my initial thought, but then I remembered that Arizona played on Monday night, so the Chargers it is.  Stay with the rules and you cannot overthink these things.  Or can I?  Ugh!

Las Vegas Raiders +4 at Seattle Seahawks

The Raiders are riding the high of last week's overtime victory over the Broncos, and continue on an upward trajectory to the 15th pick in the draft.

New Orleans Saints +9 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco wins this, but on a short week it is closer than it ordinarily would be.

Los Angeles Rams +15 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Wow how the Super Bowl Champs have fallen.  15 1/2 POINTS?!!!  Seriously?  Kansas City jumps out early only to have a late letdown to win 35-24.

Philadelphia -6 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Green Bay is averaging 222.3 passing yards a game.  Philadelphia is averaging 228.1, and they have a better running game and defense.

Pittsburgh +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sam Ehlinger is still awaiting his first passing touchdown, and Kenny Pickett has started to play a little better the last couple of games.  Not great, but better.

Big Bet:

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta barely survived the bad defense that is the Chicago Bears, and Washington is much, much better in that part of the field (5th overall, 6th against the rush).  This Washington team seems rejuvenated by Taylor Heinecke and with the re-emergence of Antonio Gibson.

I seriously don't like any of these that much.  I considered Denver, because I think they will win, but I don't want to take a road favorite, even if only 1 point.  I thought about Tennessee as Cincinnati is without Joe Mixon, but Cincinnati beat Tennessee at Tennessee last year while giving up 1,400 sacks in the game.  So, I'll take the Commanders at home.

Last Week's Record:  7-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  79-77-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $150

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($700)

Picks of the Week

 

Another subpar week, but still up on the year, so that is a good thing.  This is a ridiculously tough week given all of the Covid 19 dianosis and re-schedulings that have occurred, and really should occur, who knows what is going to happen.  Honestly, I am taking SARS-CoV-2 giving 19.  For those of you keeping score, that is Covid -19.  The big bet has gotten my 4 weeks in a row, after starting 7-0.  This has to turn around if I am going to finish in the money.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -3 at Detroit Lions

DeShaun Watson is quietly having his best season of his career, and coming off an absolute gem last week in defeating New England.  Detroit is a dumpster fire, with Mina Kimes already tweeting "Is Matt Stafford tall enough for John Elway".  And, this loss led to Detroit's firing of Head Coach Matt Patricia and the GM.

Washington Football Team +3 at Dallas Cowboys

I hate picking the road team in short weeks, and here I am picking two on Thanksgiving Day.  And, Dallas is even coming off a good performance last week against Minnesota Vikings.  However, I feel that performance is an anomaly, and the Cowboys are in the midst of a week in which they saw their strength and conditioning coach Markus Paul - a Chicago Bear - die at practice.  Must be emotional for them, but emotion is often hard to channel into performance.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

My third selection, why not going against the gambling rules again?  Well, because they are rules for a reason, and they pay off more often than not.  And, being a road favorite west coast team playing at the 1:00 time slot seems just way too many rules for me not to take the points.  I get that the Raiders are better, but their best attribute is running the football - but that is only 7th in the NFL.  And, their passing defense is 28th in the NFL going against the 2nd best passing offense in the league.  Maybe the Raiders win, but they don't cover.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are 2-3 in their last 5, but those two wins come against the Jets and the Jaguars, who are vying for the 1st overall pick in next year's NFL draft.  Chargers have talent, for sure, but travelling west to play an early game against teh AFC East leading Buffalo Bills and their 4th rated passing offense is going to be too much.

New York Giants -6 at Cincinnati Bengals

Brandon Allen is staring in place of Joe Burrow.

Tennessee Titans +3 at Indianapolis Colts

The 5th best rushing offense (Tennessee - and the NFL's leading rusher in Derrick Henry) against the 3rd best rushing defense (Indianapolis).  This is going to be one tough, physical battle.  In those situations, I take the points.  Could this end 24-23 (in either direction?)

Cleveland Browns -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville.  This is my 4th road favorite already, but I cannot help it with the likes of Brandon Allen and Mike Glennon starting.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Carolina Panthers 

Minnesota has to rebound from last week's loss to the Dallas Cowboys, right?  Plus, Carolina has a middling rush defense (18th in the NFL) to try to stop the league's second-leading rusher, Dalvin Cook.  I don't think they do, but this was a tough game for me to decide.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is a west coast team travelling east and playing in the early game.  And, after beating Baltimore two weeks ago, the Patriots lost to a Houston team (on the road), that just recently decimated the Detroit Lions (yes, it is Detroit, but still).  I don't think this will be a pretty game, so I will take points at home.

Miami Dolphins -7 at New York Jets

Why would I take a fifth road favorite?  Well, because the Dolphins already beat the Jets 24-0 just a few weeks ago, Ryan Fitzpatrick coming off a benching is practically invincible, and the Jets must be actively playing for the first overall pick.  The thing that scares me here is that Sam Darnold - who is getting the start at QB for the Jets - is playing a showcase game for whichever team wants to trade for him for next season.

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I honestly do not expect this game to occur.  Quarterback Jeff Driskel's positive Covid-19 test and the resulting contact tracing now makes quarterbacks Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles ineligible to play this week.  I know, I know.  You didn't realize Blake Bortles was still in the league either.  So, the Broncos will have to go with Royce Freeman, their usual emergency quarterback), or practice squad receiver Kendall Hilton, who played some quarterback at Wake Forest.  I expect this game to be a massacre.

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. San Francisco 49ers

The Rams are starting to really click with wins over Seattle and Tampa Bay after the crazy loss at Miami in Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa's debut start.  San Francisco, which earlier defeated the Rams, are a shell of their former selves with basically nobody left healthy from their opening day roster.  And, they just received news that Santa Clara, the actual municipality where they play their home games, has put a 21 day Covid-19 moratorium on any contact sports being played in the city limits - and the 49ers are supposed to have two home games during this period.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

I did not want to pick Tampa Bay here, honestly, but I did not want to select a seventh road favorite.  And, even when winning recently, the Chiefs have played some close games, and haven't looked like they are completely clicking.  So, I'll take more than a field goal at home.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Mitchell Trubisky is back, cue fake hoorays!!!  Honestly, Green Bay is going to win this game, but given that Trubisky is good at comebacks in the 4th quarter, he scores a late touchdown to lose by 8.

Seattle Seahawks -5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Seahawks defense is actually improving, giving up only 21 to Arizona last week and 16 to the Rams the week prior.  Philadelphia is horrible.  So, great.  a 7th road favorite!!!

Pittsburgh Steelers (No Line Yet) v. Baltimore Ravens

Playing on Tuesday, after being moved from Sunday, after being moved from Thanksgiving prime time due to Covid.  Once the Steelers complained that this is the second time they have had games moved (including losing a bye week) due to the other team's Covid issues, they had at least 2 players (Stephon Tuitt and James Conner) test positive.  Not sure who is going to be playing or what the line is going to be.  I assume that I am taking the Steelers as Lamar Jackson won't be playing.  I will make my official selection once the line is made.

Bye Week - Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I honestly do not expect this game to occur.  Quarterback Jeff Driskel's positive Covid-19 test and the resulting contact tracing now makes quarterbacks Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles ineligible to play this week.  I know, I know.  You didn't realize Blake Bortles was still in the league either.  So, the Broncos will have to go with Royce Freeman, their usual emergency quarterback), or practice squad receiver Kendall Hilton, who played some quarterback at Wake Forest.  I expect this game to be a massacre.

I hate picking road teams as my big bet, especially when giving points, but this is a unique situations.  My primary concern would be a letdown by the Saints.  But seriously, though, look at this quarterback room ... Drew Lock, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien and Blake Bortles.  And you are telling me that Colin Kaepernick couldn't play quarterback in the NFL today?!  Seriously?! 

If, and only if, the New Orleans at Denver game is canceled, I select the following as my Big Bet, and I am by no means happy about is.

Cleveland Browns -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Mike Glennon is starting for Jacksonville.  This is my 4th road favorite already, but I cannot help it with the likes of Brandon Allen and Mike Glennon starting.

I am not happy because I was selecting between three 7 point favorites, only 1 of which was at home.  But, given that this isn't a divisional rivalry and that it involves Brandon Allen and/or Ryan Finley, I will take this game as my backup Big Bet.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  84-73-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760

Picks of the Week

Wow - Last week was a complete annihilation, eliminating all of my gains for the previous three weeks.  Looks like a need a comeback week, and 2 for 3 on Thanksgiving is a good start.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears
Chicago is better, but the are the visiting team on a short week, a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, and starting a backup quarterback.  I took the points at home, and I would do so again.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Washington Racists
The contra scenario to the above.  I took the better team at home in an intradivisional game when the opponent was away on a short week starting a backup quarterback.

New Orleans Saints -12 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
If this game was Sunday, I doubt that I would have taken New Orleans, but on a short week ...

Oakland Raiders +12 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens win this easily, I just don't think they score enough to cover this spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Buffalo Bills
Hopefully the teams performance against the Steelers last week left a bad taste in the Jaguars mouth.  I am expecting retribution against Buffalo today.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Two teams fighting for their playoff life.  Carolina at home, and hosting the early game against a team from the Pacific time zone.  Carolina prevails, and covers.

Cleveland Browns +1 at Cincinnati Bengals
I just feel that Cleveland is ready to turn the corner, and a Cincinnati team struggling on offense (27th in total offense, though 11th in points) AND defense (last in total defense, rush defense and third down percentage; 31st in pass defense and points allowed), is ripe for a home loss.

New York Jets +12 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Yes Tom Brady is playing, but how hurt is he, really?  An improving Jets defense should keep this game close, enough.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. New York Giants
My gut really told me to take the Giants and the points here today, but the Giants defense really is not stopping anyone.  Coupled with the fact that despite Saquon Barkley, New York does not run the ball particularly well (29th in rushing offense).  Yes I know they hit Barkley out of the backfield, but including that and Beckham, they are still only 13th in passing offense.  For Philadelphia, it is now or never to go on a run to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I originally took San Francisco here, but they are a west coast team travelling east for the early game, and I just couldn't do it.  Tampa in an ugly win.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at Los Angeles Chargers
Only because the spread is so high.  Arizona is 4th in passing defense and adequate (17th overall) i n total defense, so this might keep things close enough.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Indianapolis Colts
Nothing about the two teams' years says that Miami should win this game, and Indianapolis does score a ton of points (5th in the NFL), but with Drake and Gore running the football, the score stays close enough for Miami to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Denver Broncos
I have to take Antonio Brown at his word that he is playing this week despite having/not having the sickle-cell trait.  Pittsburgh's defense is much, much better than at the beginning of the season, and their offense is 4th in points and 5th in total defense.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Both of the teams need a win to boost any chance at the playoffs.  Minnesota's defense wins this for the Vikings.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).

Big Bet
Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).
I hate picking my big bet on Monday night, but Houston is at home, not giving up too many points, and the night will be emotional with the recent death of their founder/owner Bob McNair.


Last Week's Record:  3-8-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  80-72-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($745)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($160)

Picks of the Thanksgiving Week

Happy Thanksgiving.  One of the things that I am thankful for is you loyal (and not so loyal) readers.  Most of you that read regularly I know, but every once in a while someone will come up to me to mention that they read this column every week (or close to every week), and I am humbled that you are interested in my musings.  I do this not just to keep track of my picks, but as a way to practice my (non-work related) writings, and to add a little humor to my own life.  The fact that others take time out to enjoy (which may be a little strong) is a bonus.  Thank you.

A small step backward last week, but at least I got the big bet correct.  Back to lots of football this week with no teams on  a bye week, so 16 total games, starting with 3 today.  Enjoy your turkey, spaghetti, or whatever food you traditionally eat, and watch some NFL football.  Just don't overdo it today, as there are lots more this weekend!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Say it with me please - don't take intradivisional, road favorites, especially on a short week.  Plus, Detroit has won three games in a row plus their last four Thanksgiving Day games.  Minnesota has both the fifth ranked offense and defense, and has won six in a row since their loss to ... you guessed it ... Detroit.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Going into this writing, my plan was to simply follow all of my standard betting rules, and a road favorite on a short week was not in the cards, but Dallas has only scored 16 points (with only one touchdown) since the Ezekial Elliott suspension, and the Chargers have won four of their last six.

Washington Racists -7 v. New York Giants
Again, a short week, and even with New York's victory last week, I am still completely unimpressed with the Giants this year.  Home team big.

Chicago Bears +13 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I do not expect the Bears to win this game, but Chicago does have the fifth best rushing game in the NFL, and should be able to keep the ball some and limit Philadelphia's possessions.  Philadelphia's defense is first against the run, but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that Philly has led in most of the games forcing their opponents to pass the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 at Atlanta Falcons
The Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Buccaneers are certainly not afraid to take chances with the ball, and will likely score enough points against Atlanta's defense to cover the spread.  If Devonta Freeman was available, it would enable Atlanta to use a more balanced offense to work up the score on the 29th ranked defense in Tampa, but he likely isn't playing.  So, Atlanta by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
At home, against Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans -3 at Indianapolis Colts
If the Titans want to make the playoffs, they have to beat the teams they should beat, that includes the Colts, who are 25th offensively in points scored, and last defensively in points allowed.

Buffalo Bills +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
Tyrod Taylor is back, and Kansas City couldn't even score 10 points against the Giants, much less 10 points MORE.  The Chiefs are reeling offensively and need to right the ship quickly, and Buffalo looks to bounce back from the short-lived Nathan Peterman experience.

Miami Dolphins +16 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England wins this game easily, but the Dolphins' individual's pride as NFL players show through as they get the back-door cover by scoring a touchdown in the last two minutes to lost by 14.

Carolina Panthers -5 at New York Jets
Carolina has won 3 in a row since an inexplicable loss to the Chicago Bears, and Cam Newton has played more like Cam Newton since the Kelvin Benjamin trade has forced the Panthers to be more creative offensively.  The Panthers' second ranked defense should feast on the 25th ranked Jets offense - although surprisingly Josh McCown's QBR is over 10 points higher than Newton's.

San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
This pick at first glance seems ridiculous.  However, despite being 1-9, has played all but about 3 games extremely close, and Seattle is without basically their entire defensive backfield.  Add to that San Francisco's propensity to blitz the quarterback against Seattle's struggling offensive line, and we might have the makings of an upset.  I am not going that far as to predict a win for San Francisco, but they do keep it close.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are 20th against the rush on defense, and New Orleans is second in rushing, at 144 yards per game.  New Orleans is also second in passing yards per game, 1st in total yards, and 3rd in points.  Too much firepower for the Rams defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Jacksonville has won 4 in a row and 5 of its last 6.  Arizona has Blaine Gabbert starting.

Oakland Raiders -5 v. Denver Broncos
I do not like this game.  I do not like this line.  I am picking Oakland because they are at home, they were embarrassed last week by New England, and because Denver is in even worse shape than Denver.

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 v. Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh's offense is clicking with Le'veon Bell leading the NFL in rushing and Antonio Brown leading the NFL in receiving yards.  The Packers, on the other hand, are led by a quarterback with a 63 QBR.  I wonder if Green Bay - which at the time of Aaron Rodgers' injury was in playoff contention - could have used a Super Bowl caliber quarterback that was (and is) available for signing?

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Baltimore at 5-5 is in second place in the AFC North, whereas the Houston Texans have Tom Savage starting.

Big Bet

Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
The Hue Jackson drama has reached its apex, as it appears he could be fired as early as after this game.  I really wanted to take the home underdog in the Lions, but I am afraid of a short week big bet.  Others that I considered include the Jacksonville Jaguars (-5 1/2 at Arizona); Carolina Panthers (-5 at New York Jets); and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10 at Atlanta), but all three were on the road.

Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  77-76-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($20)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($605)

Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving to all!!!  I would love to give thanks about my picks this week, as last week was clearly nothing to write home about (only 5 wins).  I guess I can give thanks that I am still up for the year!

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles + 2 1/2 at Detroit Lions 
Talk about a difficult selection!  On one hand we have the human turnover, Mark Sanchez, who is rumored to be good for only two things, for going with Dirty and interceptions, and the Detroit Lions who have even less than zero running game.  I will take the points and hope, especially since Philadelphia is 6-0 on Thanksgiving.

Dallas Cowboys -1 v. Carolina Panthers
This pick seems so obvious toward Carlolina, so I am going with the Tony Romo led Cowboys, with a great performance by Darren McFadden against a tough Carolina defense.

Chicago Bears +8 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Even as a Bears fan, I have no real illusion that the Bears will win this game, but the Bears have played almost every single game extremely close.  The Packers, although still pretty darn good, are not as great as everyone thought they would be at the beginning of the season.

Minnesota Vikings +1 at Atlanta Falcons
Adrian Peterson says that he feels like he is running like Adrian Peterson.  That is enough for me, especially given that Atlanta is missing Donta Freeman and his explosivity on offense.

St. Louis Rams + 8 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is reeling, so I feel that 8 1/2 is a lot of points to cover against a team with a strong defense.  Yes, Case Keenum may not be able to light up the Bengals either, but Todd Gurley is a man-child, and a ball control game could keep this close.  Plus, the Rams might play with a ton of emotion given that Stedman Bailey was just shot in the head twice and is in a Miami hospital.

Houston Texans -3 v. New Orleans Saints
The resurgent Texans are on a 3 game winning streak, and are within striking distance of the division lead.  They seem to be doing this with a phenomenal defense, no running game and De Andre Hopkins on offense.  New Orleans seems to be going in the opposite direction, so I will take the Texans.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Lovie Smith is building an incredibly tough team with a lot of young talent, starting with Jameis Winston, who seems to be coming of age.  The Colts are erratic, which is what I would have thought I would say about the Buccaneers.  Doug Martin, coming up on free agency, has made himself a lot of money this year.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 v. San Diego Chargers
Every time I think that the Chargers are going to be competitive and cover the spread, they don't.  So there is no way that I am picking them this week.  The Jaguars defense, and a big game from Allen Robinson and/or Allen Hurns covers the spread.

Buffalo Bills +6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
It is a short week for Buffalo, which means that I should pick Kansas City, but instead, I think that Buffalo are starting to figure themselves out.  Kansas City has perplexed me all year though, so take this pick with a grain of salt.

Miami Dolphins + 3 1/2 at New York Jets
Miami clearly isn't as good as their first two games under Dan Campbell, but they are playing tougher on the lines, and without Nick Mangold, the running game and Chris Ivory has suffered.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a gamer, but his injury seems to be catching up to him.  I predict a close defensive struggle, so I will take points.

Oakland Raiders -1 at Tennessee Titans
Oakland needs this win to stay in playoff contention, and I think they will defeat the Titans pretty solidly.  The Titans have no running game, and no go-to-receiver, so I expect Oakland to take advantage of the rookie QB Marcus Mariota.

New York Giants -2 1/2 at Washington Racists
I think last week's Racists were much truer to form that the Racists that beat New Orleans.

San Francisco 49ers +10 v. Arizona Cardinals
And the 49ers score a late touchdown to cover the spread.  I just couldn't pick Arizona as a road double digit favorite, even though they are clearly the better team.  Calais Campbell is playing as good as any defensive lineman in the league - and yes, that includes J.J. Watt.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
This might be the best game of the week, with both teams suffering major injury problems, but their backups have been playing admirably.  Seattle wins by 1.

Denver Broncos +3 v. New England Patriots
I will take the Broncos defense getting points at home against anybody - well clearly that is the case.

Cleveland Browns -3 v. Baltimore Ravens
What a horrible Monday night game.  McCown to Gary Barnidge for 2 touchdowns!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Minnesota Vikings +1 at Atlanta Falcons

Adrian Peterson says that he feels like he is running like Adrian Peterson.  That is enough for me, especially given that Atlanta is missing Donta Freeman and his explosivity on offense.

For my big bet, I would always prefer selecting a home team, but in this case, I will take a point on the road, especially when I would expect the road team to win given Freeman's injury.

Last Week's Record:  5-9
Year-to-Date Record: 81-74-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-3
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($655)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $665

Picks of the Week

A bit of a rebound week, and definitely in the positive.  I might actually be figuring out this year.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Chicago Bears +7 at Detroit Lions
Short weeks have not been kind to the away teams, but Detroit looks prime for a let down.  I am not saying that they won't win, but it should be within a touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Dallas Cowboys
A second short week road selection cannot be good, but Philadelphia just looks a lot better than Dallas does at this point of the season.

San Francisco 49ers -1 v. Seattle Seahawks
Primarily because I could not pick all three away teams, but also because Seattle seems to be imploding internally, so they should be ripe for a defeat after a big victory against the Cardinals.  In addition, Aldon Smith is looking to make up for lost time with a big, big game.

Baltimore Ravens -6 v. San Diego Chargers
The Chargers are a far cry from the team in the early part of the season that defeated the Seahawks, and Baltimore seems to have found a running game.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Fitzpatrick is BACK!

Indianapolis Colts -9 1/2 v. Washington Whatever Name They Are Going To Be Called
Washington is in big trouble of imploding among themselves, and they have nowhere near the talent of the Colts.

New York Giants -2 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Odell Beckham, Jr.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Carolina Panthers
The Vikings gave Green Bay a run last week, and the Packers are much better than Carolina.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
The Steelers play to the level of their opponents, and the Saints, at 4-7, are not very good.  That being said the bye week should freshen up Pittsburgh.  New Orleans is desperate though, as they need some wins to procure a playoff spot.

Oakland Raiders +6 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
Oakland is coming off a great win, and might have enough weapons to keep this game close, as they have most of the games they have played this year.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I really do hate picking road favorites, but having seen Tampa Bay struggle against the Bears (despite McCown throwing for 325 yard), means that the Bucs could be in for a long day against a rolling Cincinnati squad.

Arizona Cardinals -2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Despite the convincing loss to the hands of the Seahawks, Arizona is still a quality team - even with Drew Stanton, whereas the Falcons, despite being in first place, are not a very good squad.

New England Patriots +3 at Green Bay Packers
Everything that Bill Belichick has done this year has turned to gold.  If anyone can go into Green Bay to beat the white hot Packers, it is New England.

Denver Broncos -2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas CIty lost to the Raiders last week, and the Broncos are exactly NOT the team they want to see to try to rebound.

Miami Dolphins -7 at New York Jets
Another dreaded road favorite, but the Jets are starting Geno Smith, who is good fro 3 or 4 turnovers.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns + 2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
I am not sure how Cleveland keeps winning, but they do.  And Browns might have a corner in Joe Haden that can keep up with Sammy Watkins.  Plus, Josh Gordon is really fresh and should be able to have his way with the Bills secondary.


Last Week: 8-6-1
Year-to-Date: 95-76-3
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 6-6
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $290
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $825

Thanksgiving Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving, and welcome to the "picks of the week". A quick refresher: Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +6 v. Green Bay Packers
Green Bay's defense has not looked that great, and Detroit's offense has a lot of firepower. Stafford is a different quarterback at home. I am not saying that the Lions beat the Packers, but they definitely score enough to keep it within a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins have looked really good the past 3 or 4 weeks, and they have not given up a touchdown in what seems like forever. That stops today. Cowboys smell the opening to win the division, and I expect them to take a big bite toward that title today.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Very short week and travel from west coast to east coast will be detrimental to the 49ers. Yeah, I know I know they have won every east coast game this year, but the Ravens are not the Redskins. Plus, Torrey Smith has brought an additional dimension to the Ravens offense.

Chicago Bears +4 at Oakland Raiders
I have bet the Raiders more times than most this year, but I think this Bears team is really gelling on defense. If Hanie can get a good full week of practice in before the game, and if he continues to show the strengths he brought to the second half of the NFC Championship game, then the Bears should be all right. Plus, they have the non-Aaron Rodgers MVP of the league in Matt Forte.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have been a big disappointment for a lot of people this year. Although they still have some good, young talent, the Titans are a really tough team. Johnson might be rounding into form, and whether Hasselback can play or not, Jake Locker looks like he can play.

St. Louis Rams No Line v. Arizona Cardinals
I think that you are starting at QB for Arizona this week.

New York Jets -9 v. Buffalo Bills
The loss of Fred Jackson cannot be overestimated. The fact that the Bills were on a downward spiral with Jackson doesn't help either. The only reason this isn't a 15 or 17 point spread is because the Bills have the better quarterback.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
I have no idea what we are going to get in Matt Leinart, and nobody else does either. Not even the Texans. Especially not the Texans. However, the Jaguars know exactly what they are getting in Blaine Gabbert.

Carolina Panthers -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Boy are the Colts bad without Peyton.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Andy Dalton is making a run at NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Browns are in complete disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota's offense is reeling, and the Falcons seem to be out of the funk they were in at the beginning of the season.

Washington Redskins + 3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
I am still not picking Seattle.

San Diego Chargers -6 v. Denver Broncos
The Chargers have not been very good and they turn the ball over, but that's OK because this Broncos offense cannot move the ball effectively. If Rivers doesn't throw interceptions, the Chargers are due for a win.

New England Patriots -4 at Philadelphia Eagles
So the league has figured out that the way to stop Welker is to play him man-to-man, but the Pats have Gronkowski and Hernandez. The Eagles don't even know if they will have Vick, although I suspect they will. I expect a shootout, with the Pats winning by a touchdown.

New Orleans Saints -7 v. New York Giants
The Saints offense was hitting on all cylinders just prior to the bye week. I think the week off will do nothing but refresh them. The Giants have been Jekyll and Hyde this year, but I think the Saints score enough anyway.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 1/2 at Kansas City
I hate to make a double digit spread my "Big Bet of the Week", but then again, have you seen Kansas City play? Mike Wallace has emerged as one of the best receivers in the league, Mendenhall is a solid running back, and they still have that Steeler defense (although not as Steel as in the past).

Previous Week's Record: 6-6-2
Year to Date: 66-60-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 9-0
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $90
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $1350

Thanksgiving Picks

Quick picks for Thanksgiving games. I'll explain them later when I make the picks for the rest of this week.

New England Patriots -7 at Detroit Lions - hoping Brady plays

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Cincinnati Bengals + 9 1/2 at New York Jets

HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYBODY!!!

Enjoy your day, and everything that you are thankful for, like NFL Football!

Here is an abbreviated version of my picks for this week, containing only today's games. I will combine this post with Sunday's game picks later this week.

Green Bay Packers -12 at Detroit Lions
Never take a double digit favorite in a division game, unless the starting quarterback is injured, that team gave up a gazillion yards to the Browns, and, well, that team is the Lions.

Oakland Raiders +13 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The Raiders have been playing remarkably strong, and although they are winning, the Cowboys have started their Romo-led December swoon a little bit early.

New York Giants -6 at Denver Broncos
Both teams have slipped from their early starts, but the Giants might just be a bit too strong for the Broncos right now.