This has been an incredibly interesting, which makes for horrible gambling odds, and yours truly has been affected, just like everyone else. Average teams, like say the Buccaneers and Jets, look amazing one week, and horrendous the next. Why can't average teams, just play average, so that we know what is going on. Oh well, such is life. Another .500 week, which I would ordinarily take, but it came along with my first big bet loss, so another week in the red.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Atlanta Falcons - 2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This was an easy pick - but not an easy win. Home team on a short week.
Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against New York Jets (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
The Jets defense, at least their pass defense, is starting to live up to its pre-season reputation, but unfortunately, the offense is struggling, and I don't think Aaron Rodgers (26 straight games under 300 yards passing) is the quarterback to turn this team around.
Chicago Bears -4 v. Carolina Panthers
Yes, the Panthers seem to be much better with Andy Dalton behind center, but Carolina's bad defense may be just what Caleb Williams needs to get going after a 353 yard passing game (in a loss) followed by last week's win. Chicago's defense is 5th in third-down percentage, which will be crucial in giving the offense as many possessions as needed.
New England Patriots +1 v. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins offens has been struggling (23rd passing, 24th rushing, 24th overally, last in points), but nowhere near as bad as New England's (31st in points, last in pass defense and overall defense). But, then again, Miami is on a short week. Give me the point.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville has been THE disappointment this season. But, they have to win at some point, right? The Jaguars have the 10th best rushing defense and are playing a Colts team without Jonathan Taylor - although Trey Sermon has a lot of talent. Conversely the Colts are 31st in rush defense, and Tank Bigsby has been punishing defensive lines off the bench.
Buffalo Bills +1 at Houston Texans
If I told you the Bills offense was actually struggling statistically, you would not believe me, but, they are 17th in rushing, 20th in passing, and 21st overall. But somehow, they are second in scoring. Houston has been great against the pass (4th), but they won't be able to stop Buffalo coming off their beating at the hands of Baltimore.
Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
I really tried to find a way to select Cincinnati as a home underdog, but I just couldn't. Baltimore will be on a roll following their thrashing of the Bills to get to 2-2 after starting 0-2.
Washington Commanders -3 v. Cleveland Browns
Washington has been playing too well - especially on offense where they are 6th overall, 3rd in scoring and 3rd in rushing offense) - to not pick them against a bad and boring Cleveland team what supposedly has Amari Cooper on the trade block.
Denver Broncos -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders
Denver has been playing games very close this year, even when they have looked bad. Bo Nix looks like he has something, for sure. The Raiders ... have a big Davante Adams problem ... and Gardner Minshew.
Arizona Cardinals +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Despite being great, San Francisco has not really overwhelmed this season, so 7 points seems like a lot of points to give to a team that looks like it has Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison, Jr. starting to click!
Seattle Seahawks -7 v. New York Giants
Seattle is on a short week, but New York is without Devin Singletary and Malik Nabors. At least Seattle gets to stay at home.
Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams
This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.
Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
If the Jacksonville Jaguars did not exist, this Dallas Cowboys team would be the disappointment of the season. Ezekial Elliott returned to the backfield and he just proved that the Cowboys were right to jettison him the first time. Dallas hasn't run on anybody this year - last in the NFL, and Pittsburgh is tough to run on anyway (3rd best in the NFL).
Kansas City Chiefs - 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Given the Saints abilities to play to the level of their opponent, New Orleans seems like the safest bet here. And when a bet seems too obvious, go the other way.
Big Bet:
Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams
This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.
I really wanted to pick Seattle here, but giving 7 points is a lot for a team on a short week. Yes Green Bay lost last week, but Minnesota is legit, and the Rams are not.
Record
Last Week's Record: 7-7-2
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 28-32-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 3-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($435)
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