Picks of the Week - NFL Week 8

 

Finally, a pretty good week.  A winning week in terms of percentage, and with the Big Bet being correct, in the positive!!!  Ordinarily that would be great, except I have already dug myself a really big hole for the year.  But, I would say that I am figuring this season out, but we all know that is not true.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Chargers are the second-best team in total offense (3rd in passing).  And since the defenses are relatively even - within an average of 12 yards per game, I will take the more prolific offense given that they are the home team on a short week.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

It is possible that Lamar Jackson returns for Baltimore, but even if he does, he has only been limited in practice this week.  Will he be a bit rusty?  Also, he doesn't help the defense that is giving up 32.3 points per game - last in the NFL.  Chicago is 10th in scoring, and is the only team in the league that has scored at least 21 points in each of its games.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

The Jets are in disarray evidenced by Woody Johnson's comments this week about Justin Fields.  Is it possible that Breece Hall and Quinnen Williams are moved by the trade deadline?  I don't know but I guarantee there will be discussions.  The Joe Flacco reclamation train steams full-speed ahead, with the best receiving corps he has EVER had.

Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Carolina's defense is actually pretty stout (6th overall, 8th rushing defense and 10th passing defense), and Andy Dalton is a tried-and-true professional, but Buffalo is rested and coming off a bye-week and two-game losing streak, so I expect them to come roaring out against the Panthers.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This Texans' defense is absolutely terrifying, as it is 1st in scoring, 4th in total defense, 5th in passing defense, and 10th in rushing defense.  But Houston's offense is below average in everything, and is next to last in 3rd-down percentage.  Plus, who had Mac Jones leading the number 1 passing offense?!  Nobody, that's who.  I'll take the points with McCaffrey, especially with Houston playing on a short week.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

With both teams well-into the bottom-half in scoring defense, and both teams in-or-near the middle in scoring, I will take over a touchdown.  Philly wins, but New York keeps it close.

Cleveland Browns +6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Ladies and Gentlemen:  Your first-place/division-leading New England Patriots.  I actually hate this pick, but for all of Cleveland's faults, they have the number 1 total defense in the NFL (3rd passing/4th rushing), so that alone could keep this game close.

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let's be clear, I absolutely HATE this pick.  I really, really, really want to pick Tampa Bay here, because let's face it, Tampa is better!!!  But, Tampa Bay is on a short week, and a home dog in an intra-divisional game is always a smart choice.  Doesn't feel right here, but I will go with it and not try to overthink it, especially since defensively the team ranks are pretty similar.

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Denver is giving points after an ultra-emotional unrealistic comeback win (33 points in the 4th quarter!!!) over the New York Giants.  There just HAS to be some type of letdown.

Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is just ridiculous enough to happen!

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes Pittsburgh is in first in the AFC North, but I think that is more about Mike Tomlin than anything else, as the team was a bit exposed against the Bengals last week.  They do have some extra rest, but I expect Green Bay to win this by 10.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

This pick seems really disrespectful to the Commanders, but the Chiefs have won all 4 of their games by over 13 points (4-1 in their last 5 after an 0-2 start), and the Commanders will be playing without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels.  I will roll the dice with two double-digit favorite picks.  Maybe one of them hits.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

This is a lot of points to give-up for a Big Bet, but I really do think the Dolphins have given up.  Plus, my other thoughts are all on the road (Green Bay, Cleveland, and Dallas).

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 49-59

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,115) 

Picks of the Week

 

After two great weeks in a row, last week did me in.  A big negative salvaged only by virtue of winning the Big Bet, which continues to be my saving grace in this NFL season.  If I could figure out Arizona, well then that would be something!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Cooper Kupp back; Puka Nacua returns; and the home team on a short week.  Easy call, even with Minnesota playing really well.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Yes, this Browns team is a dumpster fire.  Jameis Winston could give them some fire offensively and Nick Chubb has a game under his belt.  And to top it off, Baltimore played Monday night.

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Good win in London on Sunday, but now the Jaguars face a 5-2 Packers team that didn't have to travel home from the United Kingdom.

Tennessee Titans +11 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Yes the Lions are really good, especially on offense where they are 4th in rushing, 3rd in scoring and passing, and 2nd in total offense.  But Tennessee is equally amazing on defense as they rank 1st overally, 3rd in passing defense and 7th in rushing defense.  Mason Rudolph also doesn't make the stupid turnovers that Will Levis made.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Two gambling rules at odds in this one (see what I did there?).  Tampa is on a short week, but Atlanta is the road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Tamps looked pretty good at times against Baltimore, and has looked great at times this year.  Wide Receiver injuries hurt, but I will assume somebody will be able to catch the ball (Cade Otton, Richard White).

New England Patrionts +7 v. New York Jets

This fame sucks, and it sucks to try to bet.  I am just taking points here, and nothing else.

Miami Dolphins +4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played Monday night, and they have to travel east?  Plus, Tuanigaminuolepola Tagavailoa returns to spark the Dolphins offense?  And I get points?  Yes please.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Mpore of a gut feeling than anything, but Cincinnati just seem to be playing better than Philadelphia, even with their 3-4 record, whereas the Eagles haven't really looked great.

Chicago Bears +1 at Washington Commanders

I would really liked to have seen this game with Jayden Daniels starting.  Mariota is a solid veteran, but not as dynamic as Daniels, and Washingotn will need that dynamism against this Bears defense.  Damn, they just announced that Daniels is playing, and I am too lazy to change the pick.  I'll just take whatever additional 1/2 or full point is added before kickoff.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. New Orleans Saints

Too many injuries for New Orleans, even with the extra days rest from playing last Thursday.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Seattle Seahawks

The NFL's 5th highest scoring offense addes Amari Cooper with a full-practice week, so I will take Buffalo in what I expect to be a shootout.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Cheifs have been very underwhelming for an undefeated team, but that won't stop them from becoming very scary once DeAndre Hopkins works his way into this offense.  I don't expect much from him today, but the Raiders defense might!

Carolina Panthers +11 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I just really hate giving up double digits in an NFL game.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Yes, Jordan Mason is returning, but Ricky Pearsall is the healthiest receiver on San Francisco, AND HE GOT SHOT!

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Russell Wilson brings some stability to the Steelers (if not more talent than Fields), and the Giants are not very good.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

I don't like giving up points for a Big Bet, but Houston at least is at home.  I didn't like any of these games for a guarantee.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  52-49-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($240)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $545

Picks of the Week

So, regressed to the mean and gave back a few bucks last week, just like I knew was going to happen.  But, either way, there is going to be some football this weekend, as I am reporting to you live from The Artist Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, Florida - one of the few reasons to ever go to Jacksonville, Florida.  Hell, even the Jaguars play their home games in London.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ten points is A LOT in this league, but had to go for the home team on the short week.  And it would have worked except for the damn facemask on Jordan Phillips.  Oh well - gotta make it up on Sunday!

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Everything about the Steelers says they are a bad team.  Like, really, really bad.  Next-to-last (31st) in offense and just slightly better (30th) in defense.  But somehow they are 4-2 and are getting points at home against a good, but somewhat milquetoast Jaguars team.  Probably a dumb pick, but I keep coming back to Pittsburgh.

New York Giants +3 v. New York Jets

Both home teams, so that doesn't matter.  This could be a game in which both teams struggle to score.  For that reason, and that reason alone I am taking the points.  

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Houston is an average team that is surprisingly entertaining, and Carolina is neither of those things.  I  know it is six games in, but C.J. Stroud has taken an early, but sizable lead in the "Who is the best rookie QB" race.  Whomever wants Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye), get your offers ready for the Bears, as Chicago has Carolina's first round pick.

New England Patriots +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

After seeing what the Patriots defense did to the Bills last week, I am taking this spread.  I expect Miami to win, but maybe Bailey Zappe in relief of Mac Jones scoring a backdoor cover to lose 30-21?

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Desmond Ridder is sufficiently competent, and could we be seeing Derrick Henry's last game as a Titan? (Perhaps to the Bills, or Browns?)

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Dallas Cowboys

I honestly don't feel good about this pick, or if I picked Dallas, either.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Washington Commanders

Road intra-divisional favorites are always tough to pick, but after the way the Eagles made the Dolphins look last week, it is hard to bet against them, even giving a touchdown.  Plus, Washington is 26th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia has the toughest rush defense, giving up just under 63 yards per game. Then, add to that the increasing winds around potential trades of Montez Sweat and/or Chase Young, and this could get ugly depending upon how Washington responds.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes interesting, mostly nondescript offense led by Derek Carr versus a sometimes intriguing, mostly milquetoast offense led by Gardner Minshew.  Taking New Orleans only because of their tough defense (3rd overall, 4th passing, 6th scoring).

Cleveland Browns +4 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game could actually go either way, especially since the Browns are led by future-XFL Hall-of-Famer P.J. Walker.  But that Cleveland defense is just too banging.  Kareem Hunt is a legitimate starter in this league, but could Cleveland be in the Derrick Henry sweepstakes?

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Denver Broncos

If this game was last week, I would have selected Denver, since Kansas City had played pretty close games except for their blowout win against Chicago.  But, their victory over the Chargers may have convinced me that they are truly starting to click.  What happens when Mecole Hardman gets settled in.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Coming off consecutive losses to the Browns and Vikings, I am definitely taking the points in this game with San Francisco having played Monday night.  

Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens win this game, but I just cannot give up double digits at home.  Ravens win 23-14.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have to be the best 2-4 team ever.  Seriously.  Justin Herbert has a 97.1 rating.  They are 5th in total offense, but, oh yeah, 31st in total defense and 32nd in passing defense.  That probably won't matter against a Bears team that is 28th in scoring, but it might matter enough for Chicago to cover.

Detroit Lions -8 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a mess.  They just gave up 30 to the Bears, and barely beat the Patriots and Packers in the two weeks before that.  Meanwhile the Lions will be angry coming off last week's shellacking at the hands of the Ravens.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

This SHOULD happen.  Easiest picks on the board often surprise, thought, and that is what I don't like, except Kirk Cousins is playing in the noon slot!

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-43-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,275