Picks of the Week - Week 9

 

A third good week in a row.  Let's see if we can keep that up, even with getting off to a bad start on Thrusday!!!  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens +9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Home team short week.  And yes, I do hate myself for this pick.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons in Madrid Spain

High-flying offense is going to beat the birds.

Dallas Cowboys -4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have quit!

Washington Commanders +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I know that this pick does not make any sense at all.  None, whatsoever.  Even with the possibility of a Myles Garrett return.  But, west coast team playing on the east coast in the 1:00 time slot.  That is the only - AND I DO MEAN ONLY - reason for this pick.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland was just getting settled in with DeShaun Watson and now they have to change to Shadeur Sanders.  That can be good.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 v. New York Jets

The 5th ranked offense and the 8th ranked defense - both reside on the Chiefs.  Kansas City rolls.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins have played pretty tough this year, but they are still not good.  Detroit is.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Denver is somehow 6-2, despite having the 32nd-ranked total offense and 25th-ranked defense.  At some point they are either going to get exposed, or Jonathan Taylor.

New York Giants -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

I ordinarily hate intra-divisional road favorites, but rarely is there a circumstance where Philadelphia has lost 6 in a row and Joe Milton starting at quarterback.

Houston Texans -6 at Los Angeles Chargers

How is C.J. Stroud's QB Rating 31.4 points HIGHER than Justin Herbert's?  And how has Jim Harbaugh not been fired yet?

Las Vegas Raiders +9 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

I think the Raiders have figured a little something out on offense in using Washington as the every-down running back, and utilizing Ashton Jeanty as the pass-recipient out of the backfield.   A bit of a waste for such a high draft pick, but it seems to be working.  That and the fact they have the 6th-highest scoring offense in the NFL keeps this close - maybe within a touchdown - against the best team in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

This is kind of a "feel" pick for me.  I don't really know why.  If I had to explain it I guess I would say because Green Bay has the 2nd-best pass attack in the NFL and bringing Josh Jacobs back has to improve the run offense.  Plus, Matthew Golden can't drop any ore passes, can he?  I really just like the points, truthfully.

Arizona Cardinals +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Cardinals are rejuvenated with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, and fall to the Seahawks by 4.  Plus, Seattle is on a short week.

Chicago Bears -5 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has been way too one-dimensional since Baker Mayfield's returning - throwing for a total of 64 yards in the past 2 games.   TOTAL; NOT AVERAGE!!!  The Bears defense is third against the run and 14th against the pass.  Going to be hard to take advantage of the Bears "weakness" on defense, and that Chicago offense is cooking.  Even though Chicago is on a short week, at least they get the Sunday night game to become a little more acclimated.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Minnesota Vikings

Another "feel" pick for me.  Minnesota has a great defense (1st in passing defense and scoring defense; 2nd in total defense and 3rd-down defense; 17th in rushing), but they have next-to-no offense (27th in total and scoring).  You are going to have to score to beat the Bills, the highest-scoring team in the NFL.

Bye Weeks:  Pittsburgh Steelers, Tennessee TItans

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Chicago Bears -5 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has been way too one-dimensional since Baker Mayfield's returning - throwing for a total of 64 yards in the past 2 games.   TOTAL; NOT AVERAGE!!!  The Bears defense is third against the run and 14th against the pass.  Going to be hard to take advantage of the Bears "weakness" on defense, and that Chicago offense is cooking.  Even though Chicago is on a short week, at least they get the Sunday night game to become a little more acclimated.

Given the Bears are coming off a Monday Night game, this is a really bad pick.  But, Tampa has only been running the ball, and the Bears have not just plugged a hole, but turned the interior defensive line into a strength with the Jeffrey Simmons trade.

Results: 

Last Week Record: 9-5

Last Week Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 57-58-5

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $500

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($955)

Picks of the Week - Week 8

 

I wanted a streak and I did/didn't get it.  In the most important column - the money - I failed to maintain my streak, because of the Big Bet and the vig.  However, record-wise it was a winning week, so let's see IF I can keep THAT up, at least.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Home team; short week.  And this short week was an easy pick since I felt the line here should have been around 6.  Toyed with making this the Big Bet, except Thursday night games can be a bit wonky.

Indianapolis Colts +10 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Colts have clearly given up, but they haven't traded Jonathan Taylor yet, so they still have the capability to score a couple of touchdowns.  If this wasn't a divisional game, I might have thought about given the ten points but can't do it within the division.  Interesting note, the Jaguars have won 11 straight games at home against the Colts.  Don't expect this streak to end today.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Tennessee is 26th in total defense, 24th against the pass and 26th against the rush BEFORE they traded Jeffrey Simmons to the Bears.  And with Cincinnati having the #4 scoring offense in the NFL, this should be easy on paper.  But double-digit spreads are never easy in the league, so I will take the points while simultaneously taking the money line on Cincinnati.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Two middling offenses versus two pretty good defenses (Browns average giving up 20.9 points a game; the Steelers 19.7).  I'll take the points.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

The first of two games that feature one high-powered offense versus a stingy defense.  Detroit's offense is 1st in total yards, 1st in passing yards, 2nd in scoring, and 16th in rushing.  Minnesota's defense is 1st in scoring, 2nd in total defense and passing, and 10th in rushing.  The difference here is I just don't think Minnesota can score enough.  I could see something like a 17-10 game here.  I will give the points, but in other circumstances might just stay away from this game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This could actually be a pretty entertaining game given the fact that both teams are under .500.  The Buccaneers are 3rd in rushing, and Kenneth Gainwell's return last week offered them another offensive weapon to ease Baker Mayfield's comeback.  Atlanta itself is 6th in rushing, and the teams are 4th against the run (Atlanta) and 2nd against the run (Tampa Bay), so whichever team can establish itself in that area will likely win this game.  I always hate to look at one game and over-react, but that Tampa win last week was very impressive, even with a pedestrian Mayfield.  I look for that to continue.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at Dallas Cowboys

First-round draft pick Jeremiyah Love is playing once again for the Cardinals after returning from injury, but even prior to his injury he was only averaging 3.66 yards per carry.  I think Arizona needs to play Carson Beck to see if they need to draft a QB next year or not.  Brissett has played admirably (a 82.8 rating), but he isn't the future.  The Cowboys can score (5th in the NFL), whereas the Cardinals cannot (26th).  I'll give the points.

This is all that I wrote before I went back to think about my pick.  The Cowboys are on a short week after playing Philadelphia on Monday night and sustaining several dings.  I'll take the points.

New York Jets -2 1/5 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Breece Hall is set to return, but Braelon Allen is still slated to start, and it could be the Jets don't want to get Hall injured to hurt his trade value.  Everything about this game says Raiders (6th in scoring versus 27th mainly), but west coast team playing in the 1:00 time slot leads me to say Jets.  Plus, I am hoping that the competitive nature of the NFL-player Jets will want to avenge last week's loss to Miami.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Buffalo Bills

If Lamar Jackson is back at 100%, I really like getting points in this game, especially going against a porous defense (30th in scoring defense, 31st in total defense and against the pass).  Jackson can usually rely on a good defense (11th overall, 9th against the pass) to keep this game close as he gets acclimated back to the NFL.

  

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

In the battle of Sofi, I am just simply betting against the Chargers.  Plus, it is hard to believe that the Rams are 3-4 with their offense (2nd in total offense and 2nd in passing offense), AND defense (3rd in total defense and 4th in passing defense).  The Rams begin their playoff charge and the Chargers continue the Harbaugh countdown-clock (and maybe Herbert?).

Miami Dolphins +7 v. New England Patriots

Everything about this game screams PATRIOTS!!!  But you all should know by now how I feel about giving points on the road in an intra-divisional game.  The Dolphins - although not good - have been showing some progress this year, with some good future talent and a solid running game, so maybe, a backdoor cover as the Patriots win 30-24?   

 

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I know I just typed that I don't want to give points on the road in an intra-divisional game, but 1 1/2 really isn't that much when the Chiefs have the 5th best total offense and the 9th best total defense, compared to the 31st ranked total offense and 23rd total defense for Denver.

Washington Commanders -6 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really do not like making this bet as I feel it is way too many points (perhaps 3 1/2 would be more like it), but we all know that Philadelphia is reeling - especially with the Jalen Hurts blood clots and ensuing debacle, now add the fact they now have to answer questions about whether or not Saquon Barkley is on the trading block.  Plus, they played Monday night, so I am going to roll the dice.

Chicago Bears +3 at Seattle Seahawks

This is the other marquee matchup between an amazing high-flying offense (Chicago Bears - 1st in rushing/3rd in total offense/13th in passing - with two three full games without Caleb Williams, too/T7th in scoring) going against a impenetrable defense (Seattle Seahawks - 1st in total and passing defense/4th in scoring defense/6th in scoring defense.)  Chicago's defense is pretty good too (3rd in rushing defense/8th in total defense and passing defense/9th in scoring defense).  Plus, these are the two best defenses in getting off the field on third down (Chicago #1 and Seattle #2).  So, what do I like to do when two really good, evenly-matched teams play each other?  Take the points!

Bye Weeks:  Houston Texans, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Los Angeles Rams -6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

In the battle of Sofi, I am just simply betting against the Chargers.  Plus, it is hard to believe that the Rams are 3-4 with their offense (2nd in total offense and 2nd in passing offense), AND defense (3rd in total defense and 4th in passing defense).  The Rams begin their playoff charge and the Chargers continue the Harbaugh countdown-clock (and maybe Herbert?).

I feel this is really the biggest mis-match (spreadwise) on the board, so I am going to take it, especially with the Rams not being a true road team.  But, none of us would be shocked in the Chargers finally got their first win - and this would be just the unexpected game in which it could occur.  That being said, this is my Big Bet for sure - as the Rams get themselves to .500 on the season.

Results: 

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 49-53-5

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,455)

Professional Football Wrap-Up

 

To be honest, I did not watch a lot of NFL football this weekend, as my Bears played Thursday and my Miami Hurricanes put on a show on Saturday, but I did watch some and read as much as I could about the other games in order to put together a bit of a report for you.  Here is that report ...

Game of the Week

Cleveland Browns 27 Tennessee Titans 24.  Seriously.  This is not a joke.  Another contender was the Dolphins first victory of the season over the New York Jets.  Again, seriously.  Close game throughout - with both teams scoring 10 points in the final quarter.  DeShaun Watson (QB for the Browns) threw for 308 yards and Tony Pollard (RB for the Titans) rushed for 129 yards and 3 TDs.  Carnell Tate really starting to assert himself with 5 catches for 69 yards and fellow rookie K.C. Concepcion had 8 catches for 129 yards himself.  Actually just a really good game.  Cleveland leads the AFC North at this moment, believe it or not.

Best Team Performance

Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  The Buccaneers annihilated the Carolina Panthers - in Charlotte - 43-13, and this just demonstrates how important a true starting quarterback is in the NFL.  Baker Mayfield wasn't even called upon to do much (7-11 for 64 yards and 1 TD), but his presence no doubt helped clear some running lanes for Bucky Irving (106 yards, 2 TDs on 24 carries), Kenneth Gainwell (88 yards on 14 carries), and even Sean Tucker (52 yards, 1 TD on 7 carries).  The Panthers were so thoroughly dominated by the Buccaneers that Kenny Pickett made an appearance.  Yes, THAT Kenny Pickett.  Tampa with its 2-5 record is now only one game back in the win column of the division lead.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Baltimore Ravens (second half).  The Ravens turned a 13-0 halftime lead over the Cincinnati Bengals into a 35-13 rout at the hands of Joe Burrow (22-30, 292 yards, 4 TDs), Tee Higgins (6 catches, 148 yards, 1 TD), and Ja'Marr Chase (5 catches, 62 yards, 1 TD).  

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Caleb Williams, QB - Chicago Bears.  For the second straight week, Caleb Williams earns this honor, this time by outdueling fellow 2024 QB draft pick Drake Maye.  Williams was 22-33 for 308 yards and 2 TDs, while spreading the ball around as 5 different receivers had at least 3 catches, and the 3 were caught by Cole Kmet who left the game - and the season - with a knee injury.  This week will be interesting as the Bears take on the number 1 passing and total defense in the Seattle Seahawks.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Alex Singleton, LB - Denver Broncos.  Singleton finished the game with 17 tackes, including 1 sack as the Broncos defeated the Arizona Cardinals 30-16.

And because this week deserves two mentions ...

Kendal Daniels, LB - Atlanta Falcons.  Daniels was a large contributor to the Falcons 29-20 upset-win over the previously undefeated San Francisco 49ers as he made 11 total tackles, and in the critical fourth quarter came up with a big interception and a timely fumble recovery on successive downs.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Dylan Laube, KR - Las Vegas Raiders.  The Raiders may be streaking in the wrong direction, but not so for Laube, who returned two kickoffs for 78 yards giving the Raiders offense pretty good field position for most of the game.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Bournemouth.  Bournemouth went into Old Rafford and annihilated Manchester United 3-0, behind two first half goals from Rayan and Marcus Tavernier, and then polished off in the second half with one from Evanilson.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Nicolas Jackson, F - Aston Villa.  Jacson scored a brace surrounding Erling Haaland's league-leading 9th goal of the season as Aston Villa beats Manchester City 2-1.

Goat of the Week

Bryce Young, QB - Carolina Panthers.  Not so much a goat as just horrible play.  Young was 14-27 for 163 yards with 1 TD, 2 INTs, and was sacked 5 times.  And he was pulled for Kenny Pickett in Carolina's 43-13 defeat at the hands of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Mike Penders, G - Chelsea.  Just truly one of the worst goalkeeper own-goals ever.

Breakthrough Performance

Omar Cooper, WR/Mason Taylor, TE - New York Jets.  The second-year tight end and the rookie wide receiver showed promise for the future with both hauling in five receptions and Cooper gaining 115 yards - with 1 TD - and Taylor gaining 62 yards - with 2 TDs.  Whomever is going to the throwing the ball for the Jets in the future is going to have some talented pass catchers.

Finally

 

Cam Skattebo, RB - New York Giants.  Skattebo, who has shown flashes before, put together a complete game, earing 124 yards on the ground with 1 TD on just 17 rushes, and showing that he can be a primary back in this league.

Impact Injury

Aaron Jones, Jr, RB - Minnesota Vikings.  Suffered a knee injury, and the potential impact on the Vikings is huge, given that the undefeated team is being carried by its defense, and has barely any offensive presence as it is.

Team Rising

New York Giants.  They defeated the Houston Texans in overtime are sit atop the NFC East at 4-2-1.

Team Falling

Indianapolis Colts.  A respectable 16-10 loss to the Minnesota Vikings gives them a disrespectable 2-5 records, and the firesale began today with the trade of star guard Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.) (Yes, I know that you could have a worse record and be better, but we are working off record.)

1. Minnesota Vikings (6-0)

2. San Francisco 49ers (6-1)

3. Buffalo Bills (5-1)

4. Kansas City Chiefs (5-1)

6. Chicago Bears (5-2)

Worst Teams

(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. Los Angeles Chargers (0-6)

31. Tennessee Titans (1-6)

30. Miami Dolphins (1-5)

29. Washington Commanders (1-4-1)

28. New York Jets (2-5)

Middle Teams

15. Green Bay Packers (4-3)
16. Baltimore Ravens (4-3)

17. Carolina Panthers (3-3)
18. Los Angeles Ram (3-4)

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Question:  The Los Angeles Chargers sit at 0-6 on the season.  Who was the Chargers starting quarterback the last time the Chargers started 0-6?

Answer:  Jim Harbaugh, in 2000.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

Pretty packed week!

6. Kansas City Chiefs v. Denver Broncos.  This would have been higher on the list if KC hadn't lost to Seattle this week; and could have been waaaay higher if Denver actually looked watchable.

5. Baltimore Ravens v. Buffalo Bills.  Usually a marquee matchup, made more important by Baltimore's necessity to right its shop and the return of Lamar Jackson.

4. Cleveland Browns v. Pittsburgh Steelers.  Seriously.  Both teams are tied atop the AFC North, so this game is very important!

3. Manchester City v. Brighton & Hove Albion.  The top of the table Citizens versus BHA, which sits in third place.  We all know about the goal-scoring prowess of Erling Haaland for Man City; but BHA's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen sits atop the leaderboard with (tied for the) most clean sheets!

2. Chicago Bears v. Seattle Seahawks.  Stellar offense versus amazing defense for two likely playoff teams!!!  Add-in Monday night, and we have a show!

1. Minnesota Vikings v. Detroit Lions.  Exactly like our #2 battle - stellar offense versus amazing defense - plus this is an intra-divisional battle!!!

Trivia

The Minnesota Vikings are the last remaining undefeated team at 6-0.  What was Minnesota's best start ever, and when did that occur?

The Ole College Try

 

This is why we love football.  Even during a week in which there are not very many marquee matchups, three of the unbeaten fall.  Always something exciting going on, and I am here to try to recapture some of it.

Welcome to the Ole College Try, which is my take on college football via a weekly column on college football after each weekend's games.  The column is meant to be a recap of the season to date, with an emphasis on last week's games.  I write this column as if every player is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Why? Because it is ridiculously ludicrous (is there any other kind of ludicrous, besides Ludacris?) that the networks, including the World-Wide Leader, nay, especially the World-Wide Leader, emphasize the Heisman Trophy race all season at the expense of everything else.  Consider this my sarcastic homage to stupid reporting.

Heisman Watch

Quarterback Edition

Favorite - Darian Mensah - Miami - Many expected Miami to struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that many think is the best in the NCAA, which it certainly is against the run.  How did Miami and Mensah fare in their first week occupying the number 1 spot in the polls?  Miami won 52-23, and all Mensah did was go 31/37 for 387 yards and 4 TDs.  Easily the highest ranked QB in the Heisman watch.

Rising - Keelon Russell - Alabama - This freshman is GOOD!!!  He went 19/30 for 311 yards and 3 TDs as Alabama bounced back to defeat Texas A&M 31-20.  He does not have much margin-for-error, however, as a third loss likely knocks the Crimson Tide out of the playoffs.

Sleeper - Sam Leavitt - LSU - Is it possible that now that the Lane Kiffin Hype Train has evened-out some that we can actually watch this team be good without all of the unnecessary Lane Kiffin?  Leavitt was 32/45 for 287 yards and 3 TDs as LSU routed Auburn 38-17.

Falling - Connor Weigman - Houston - He didn't play a bad game against Utah (19/35 for 282 - 0TDs/0INts), but any chances he had were always tied to winning, and Houston's second loss of the season knock them out of the playoff conversation.

Running Back Edition

Favorite - DeSean Bishop - Tennessee - Keeps the train running with 120 yards and 1 TD on 32 carries, leading the Volunteers to a 27-24 victory over South Carolina.

Rising - Kendrick Raphael - SMU - Raphael is helping keep the Mustangs in the ACC and playoff conversation with his running, this time with 104 yards and 2 TDs in SMU's 59-20 victory over California.

Falling - Turbo Richard - Indiana - As the love for the Hoosier's repeat dips thanks to a narrow victory over Michigan (13-6), Richard has to do better than 68 yards on 19 carries for Indiana to keep winning, and make the playoffs.

Sleeper - Anthony Woods - UCLA - The Bruins remain unbeaten in large part to Woods running (112 yards on only 14 carries) as UCLA defeated Michigan State 28-10.

Wide Receiver Edition

Favorite - Jeremiah Smith - Ohio State - Still the overall favorite for the Heisman, even after a bye week!

Rising - Malachi Toney - Miami - Toney torched Pittsburgh defense setting a team record for single-game receptions with 16, for 194 yards and 3 TDs.

Sleeper - Ryan Wingo - Texas - Has fast become Arch Manning's favorite receiver, and the Longhorns needed every one of his 7 catches for 111 yards and TD to defeat Mississippi 34-27.  

Falling - Cam Coleman - Texas - Still falling, as he has been replaced as Texas' number 1 receiver (See Wingo, Ryan).  Coleman - who was widely seen as the third-best receiver behind Jeremiah Smith and Malachi Toney coming into this season - had a single catch for 12 yards in this week's victory.

Defensive Edition

5.  Colin Simmons - EDGE - Texas - The best defensive player in college football, but currently out with an ankle injury.  Still the NCAA FBS leader in sacks, though, with 10 1/2 sacks.

4.  Kaleb Beasley - DB - Louisville - Now up to 5 interceptions on the season, tying him for the FBS lead.

3.  Andrew Zock - EDGE - Toledo - Of all of the leaders on the sack board (Zock is T-4th with 8), he has the most tackles on the season with 46, showing that he isn't just a pass rusher.  

2.  Stone Hala - LB - San Diego State University - Hala has taken over the FBS lead in tackles, with a total of 83 on the season.

1.  Malik Hartford - S - UCLA - Had a superb well-rounded game in the defensive backfield, finishing the game with 7 tackles, 1 pass defensed, an interception and a touchdown, and finished with a 91.8 PFF grade, as UCLA remains undefeated.

  

Player(s) to Watch

Javion Mallory - RB, Miami.  Sharing the backfield with the Uber-talented Mark Fletcher, Girard Pringle and Jordan Lyle, Mallory is very noisely making his appearances felt and really making the coaching staff call his number, this week with 47 yards and 2 TDs on only 7 carries.

My New Favorite Player
Noah Fifita - QB - Arizona - Not only does he have a really fun name to say, Fifita is balling for the ranked Wildcats, finishing this week's 39-3 victory over Iowa State with 308 yards and 2 TDs on an efficient 27-37 passing.

Players of the Week

6.  Tayven Jackson - QB - North Texas - Threw for 305 yards and 3 TDs against Navy, and compiled PFF's highest offensive grade of the week.

5.  Keelon Russell - QB - Alabama - 19-30 for 311 yards and 3 TDs.

4.  Charlie Smith - QB - Harvard - He finished 22/28 for 230 yards and 2 TDs, as the Crimson coasted to an unexpectedly easy 35-7 victory over Princeton, which was then tied for first with Harvard for the Ivy lead.

3.  Keyone Jenkins - QB - UCF - 25-41 for 293 yards and 3 TDs in the air, an additional 35 yards on the ground, and a 39-31 upset over then #2 ranked and previously unbeaten BYU.

2.  Darian Mensah - QB - Miami - 31-37 for 387 yards and 3 TDs.

1.  Malachi Toney - WR - Miami - 16 catches, 194 yards and 3 TDs.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)
Everyone involved in the ending of the UCF upset of BYU.  Yes, including the winning Knights.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)
See above!

Seriously Mike Locksley (Maryland)/Dave Doeren (NC State)/Dave Aranda (Baylor)

All three gentlemen were fired by the administrations listed besides their name.

Predicted Playoffs Semi-Final Match Ups (By Seeding Only)

(1) Ohio State v. (4) Miami/Notre Dame (2) v. Georgia (3) 

Final Unbeatens

FBS - Miami, UCLA, Utah

FCS - Harvard, Stephen F. Austin, Tarleton State

Rant(s) of the Week

What the Hell Went on at the end of the BYU-UCF game?  Just egregious!

 

Under Performance of the Week

BYU Cougars.  I get it; an emotional comedown after a very emotional home win late against Notre Dame, then traveling cross-country to an average-at-best UCF team is difficult.  But, if you want to stay in the playoff conversation in a conference that has A LOT of teams within a game or two, you have to find a way to win these games.

Last Week's Trivia Answer

This was upset week, so let's ask a question about upsets.  When was the last time an AP #1 ranked team lost to an unranked opponent, who lost and who won?

September 26, 2008 (149 games) - Oregon State beat USC 27-21 in Corvallis, Oregon

Trivia Question of the Week

Malachi Toney set a University of Miami single-game record for receptions with 16 against Pittsburgh this week.  Whose record did he break?  Meaning, who previously held the Miami single-game record for receptions?

Match-up(s) to Watch

6. Harvard v. Dartmouth - As has been the norm, so long as Harvard is undefeated, they will remain on this list.  For the second week in a row, Harvard plays the team that sits just below it in the conference standings; albeit this time it is the Dartmouth Big Green.  This game fills the coveted "Ivy League Friday Night" time slot - so all eyes of the conference will be on this matchup.

5. Minnesota v. Indiana - Both teams have one conference loss in a league with 6 such teams with one loss or better.  The winner of this game makes a strong play for the conference championship game.  The loser has a way bigger hill to climb.

4. Arizona v. Texas Tech - With Texas Tech losing at Cincinnati this week, this becomes a ranked-on-ranked matchup, with both teams in serious contention for the Big 12 conference championship game.

3. Miami v. North Carolina - Can the defensive genius that is Bill Belichick do anything to stop Malachi Toney?

2. Utah v. Cincinnati - Cincinnati hosted and defeated one of the last six undefeated teams in Texas Tech this week.  Can they do it again with one of the last three undefeated teams?

1. Florida v. Georgia (in Atlanta) - The Artist Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party!

Picks of the Week - Week 7

 

Finally, last week was EXACTLY what I was waiting for, now can I turn this into a streak?  Who knows?  But for now, I had a really good week, and on top of it the football I watched was from Rainey Street in Austin, Texas.  Here is my brief recap from my trip to Austin, Texas.  The NFL has moved from London, but there is a game from Paris, so get your bets/picks in early.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -3 v. New England Patriots

Home team; short week.  As simple as that in a game pitting two really good teams against each other.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers at Stade de France in Paris, France.

Two teams whose records belie their talent.  New Orleans is better than 2-4 and Pittsburgh is not as good as 4-2.  Honestly for this game I am simply taking points and hoping for the best.  Not a good betting strategy, but it is what I have for this game.

Minnesota Vikings -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota's defense is incredible (1st in scoring and third-down defense; 2nd in total defense; 3rd in passing defense; 5th in rushing defense), but what is going to be the difference in this game is that the Colts appear to be shopping Jonathan Taylor.  That cannot help the team, and in fact, does it affect the playcalling as the Colts try to avoid losing any trade value if he gets banged-up or injured is the question that needs to be asked.

Miami Dolphins +4 1/2 at New York Jets

Another game in which I am taking the points.  Primarily this time though because it is an intra-divisional rivalry, and although not predicting a Dolphins win, it will have to occur sometime, right?

Cincinnati Bengals +1 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore lost last week to Cleveland, and although that is turning out to be nowhere near as bad as it sounds, that is still something.  Cincinnati has been good on third down with the b all - 2nd in the NFL - if they can keep the ball away from Derrick Henry - they have a really good chance to win.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Another game where I am just taking the points.  Yes, I know that Cleveland is 4-2 - but you don't believe that either.  Plus, both teams' defenses are pretty good in keeping the other teams from scoring (Cleveland 5th; Tennessee 13th).

Carolina Panthers -2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

Carolina's offense has been soaring (2nd in total offense, 1st in passing, 4th in scoring), and Tampa's defense has been great (5th in total, 2nd in rushing).  Home-field advantage is going to matter here as Baker Mayfield may be a bit rusty.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is the best team in football so far, and it isn't even really that close.  But, they are coming off a Monday night game (short week) and the fact that we have a west coast team playing in the 1:00 window in the East, and this game just seems like it could be an upset.

New York Giants +10 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am not selecting the Giants because I think that J.J. McCarthy is the answer.  I am taking New York because 10 1/2 is a big number against a team that only gives up about 1/2 a point more than it scores.

 

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Denver has struggled offensively, and Bo Nix has been taking a lot of that blame.  But, I feel like the running game has really been letting the team down (26th in the league).  Maybe that could start to change as they take on the Cardinals and their 27th-ranked rush defense.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Los Angeles Rams

Getting points against a struggling - albeit talented team, where Puka Nacua might also miss the game along with Davante Adams - who is on IR?

Green Bay Packers +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Detroit is the better team here, and they average 32.8 points per game this season but, they are last n total defense and passing defense, and there will be opportunities for Green Bay to pick up big plays through the air, which if you saw the Chicago game you know they can take advantage of.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Strength versus strength in this game.  Offense (Chiefs - 1st in total, rushing; 5th in scoring; 9th in passing) versus Defense (Seahawks - 1st in total and passing, 5th in scoring and 10th in rushing).  So, let's look at the other side of the ball where KC is 2nd in scoring defense and 4th in total defenses whereas Seattle is middling in all offensive categories (13th scoring, 14th total, 16th passing and 18th rushing).  Plus, the turnovers.  Chiefs getting points?  Yes, please.

Dallas Cowboys -4 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I really, really want to take the home dog in this intra-divisional game, especially since Saquon Barkley might return.  However, there is just too much negativity around Philly's treatment of Jalen Hurts as well as their offensive lines and secondaries right now to take them for anything.

Bye Weeks:  Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Washington Commanders

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Minnesota Vikings -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Minnesota's defense is incredible, but what is going to be the difference in this game is that the Colts appear to be shopping Jonathan Taylor.  That cannot help the team, and in fact, does it affect the playcalling as the Colts try to avoid losing any trade value if he gets banged-up or injured is the question that needs to be asked.

For a Big Bet I first try to select a home team not giving up too many points.  Although I would prefer a line with a "3" or "4" in it, under a touchdown for a Minnesota team that is 1st in scoring defense, 1st in third-down defense, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in passing defense, and 5th in rushing defense is just too good a line to turn down given Indianapolis's problems.

Results: 

Last Week Record: 9-5

Last Week Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 41-47-5

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-4

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $500

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($1,430)

Professional Football Wrap-Up

 

You know that it is a good week when the two best games on paper turn out to be the two best games in actuality - and yes, I am talking about San Francisco - Seattle and Buffalo - Los Angeles.

Game of the Week

Houston Texans 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 31 Lots of action from Webley Stadium as the teams traded blows, complete with Travis Hunter intercepting a pass as well as catching a TD from Trevor Lawrence.  Cam Little nailed a 60-yard field goal to tie the game with 2:00 remaining only to see Ka'imi Fairbairn hit a comparatively short 49-yard field goal with 3 seconds remaining to propel the Texans into the victory lane.  Both Lawrence and Houston QB C.J. Stroud threw for over 300 yards to make this game exciting for the Brits that attended as well as the American fans that traveled to London for the game.

Best Team Performance

Kansas City Chiefs.  Easily handled a Los Angeles Chargers team that is in complete disarray.  Not only do we know that Jim Harbaugh is going to be fired this season, now there is talk of trading Justin Herbert and completely dismantling the team.  But enough about the losing squad in this game, KC dominated, holding the Chargers to only 277 yards of total offense, while sacking Justin Herbert 4 times.  Kenneth Walker piled on a 128-yards rushing on a very efficient 19 carries, hitting the end zone twice.  I know the hype is on Brock Purdy and Josh Allen, but let's give some love for potential MVP to Walker.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Los Angeles Chargers.  Ugh!

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Caleb Williams, QB - Chicago Bears.  Making his return from a hamstring injury that produced more questions about what grade it was than whether or not Williams was ready to return (he was).  He finished 3036 for 305 yards a 1 TD while cruising to a 31-7 fourth quarter lead before the Bears pulled their defensive starters to ultimately win 31-23.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Kyler Gordon, CB - Chicago Bears.  Another player that made his highly-anticipated return to the field for the Bears after being much-maligned for his training and treatment off of it was Kyler Gordon.  The slot corner was expected to shore iup the secondary, which he did, but he also had three sacks blitzing off the corner and forcing Michael Penix, Jr. to fumble twice.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Ka'imi Fairbarn, K - Atlanta Falcons.  Game-winning kick in London against Jacksonville the week after Cam Little did the same for the Jaguars is a pretty special story.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Brighton & Hove Albion.  Absolutely decimated Crystal Palace 5-0, behind four separate goal scorers (Diego Gomez; Yasin Ayari; Charalampos Kostoulas; Jack Hinshelwood) plus an own goal.  BHA is a serious contender for the Premiership title this year, as they find themselves in third place with a 5-1-1 record and a +18 goal differential.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Diego Gomez, M - Brighton & Hove Albion.  In another week it could have been Erling Haaland of Manchester City or Pedro Neto of Chelsea for their respective braces, but it has to be Gomez because of this THIS GOLAZO!!!

Goat of the Week

Front Office and Coaching Staff - Philadelphia Eagles.  They allowed Jalen Hurts to fly across the Atlantic with blood clots in his calf and lungs!!!  What were they thinking?

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Yehor Yarmolik, M - Brentford.  You are already playing Liverpool in a tight battle when your teammate puts you up 1-0 just before half in the 44th minute.  What do you do?  In extra time you get a straight red.  And, after being shorthanded, Brentford concedes two goals in an 8-minute span in the second half to fall 2-1.

Breakthrough Performance

David Bailey, Edge - New York Jets.  When you are drafted #2 overall, an immediate impact is expected.  Sometimes, though, there is an adjustment period, and Bailey experienced that for the first quarter of the season.  He exploded with 9 QB pressures and 3 sacks against the Browns, and this week against the Patriots he only had 1 total tackle, but another pressure and 2 forced fumbles!

Finally

 

Houston Texans.  A last-minute drive for a game-winning field goal against division leading Jacksonville Jaguars means that Houston (which started 0-4, but is now 2-4), hasn't given up on this season and could still make the playoffs where - with this defense - they could always make some noise.

Impact Injury

Jalen Hurts, QB - Philadelphia Eagles.  Out for the season with blood clots; and dare I say possibly his career?

Team Rising

Pittsburgh Steelers.  How is this team 4-2 and in a three-way tie for the AFC North lead?  I mean seriously, how?

Team Falling

Los Aneles Rams.  Even after claiming this spot last week, they fall to 2-4.  In the NFC West, they might be done.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.) (Yes, I know that you could have a worse record and be better, but we are working off record.)

1. San Francisco 49ers (6-0)

2. Kansas City Chiefs (5-0)

3. Minnesota Vikings (5-0)

4. Buffalo Bills (5-1)

6. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2)

Worst Teams

(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. Los Angeles Chargers (0-6)

31.  Miami Dolphins (0-5)

30.  Tennessee Titans (1-5)

29. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-5)

28. Washington Commanders (1-4-1)

Middle Teams

15. Cincinnati Bengals (3-2)
16. New York Giants (3-2-1)

17. Seattle Seahawks (3-3)
18. Las Vegas Raiders (3-3)

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Question:  Inspired by Puka Nacua's 17-catch game just one week after Cee Dee Lamb had the same, who has the record for most receptions in a single game, and how many did he have?

Answer:  Brandon Marshall with 21 for the Denver Broncos against the Indianapolis Colts on December 13, 2009.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

6-4.  This weekend's matchups stink.  NONE!

3.  Everton v. Chelsea.  These two teams sit at 5th and 6th in the Table (albeit tied on points for 4th place).  A big matchup to push the victor - if any - into Europe next year!!!  Brentford v. Liverpool is also important.

2.  Buffalo Bills v. Las Vegas Raiders.  This game has lost some of its luster since the Raiders loss this weekend to the New England Patriots, but it is about as good as we can get.

1.  Seattle Seahawks v. Denver Broncos.  Easily the best game of the week, but it is on Thursday night.  Denver can show us if they are really going to be a contender this year or not, and Seattle is a great opportunity for them to do just that.

Trivia

The Los Angeles Chargers sit at 0-6 on the season.  Who was the Chargers starting quarterback the last time the Chargers started 0-6?

Austin, Texas Football Weeking

 

So Racecar and I adventured to Austin, Texas to watch her Florida Gators take on the University of Texas Longhorns in a game of American-style college football.  Both teams were angry for a win with the Gators travelling into Darrell K. Royal Stadium on a two-game losing streak (to Missouri and South Carolina - the latter on UF's Homecoming) and the Longhorns fresh off a loss to Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.

Since this was my first time in Austin, Texas - here are my 10 observations:

10.  Bats.  The bats are a must see.  Around sundown every day, the bats come flying out from under the Congress Street bridge to go feed.  AN ESTIMATED 1.5 TO 2 MILLION OF THEM!!!!

9.    Reservations at the bar.  If you want to go to a nicer place but do not have reservations and you think that you can just sit at the bar in an empty bar seat ... Nope.  Ran into one place that required reservations AT THE BAR!!!

8.    Sixth Street.  My boy Kev-O once described the San Antonio Riverwalk as the bastard child of Disney and Bourbon Street.  Taking that observation as the starting point - Sixth Street is the delusional step-cousin.  Walked into a bar a few blocks from where we were going to have dinner and they patted me down.  Other than employees - NOT ONE OTHER PERSON WAS IN THIS BAR!!!  Don't really need to be in that type of place at this stage in my life.

7.    University of Austin.  Etched into the glass of a University of Austin meeting room in the lobby of the Omni hotel was the phrase, "Don't just join a university; start one!"  Ladies and Gentlemen - have I told you about Southwestern Central?!

6.    Two Huge dinner recommendations:  Comedor and Suerte.  Comedor is a little fancier; everything is served tapas/family style and has a Michelin recommendation.  Suerte is nice, but not as fancy as Comedor and absolutely delicious.  Placed on top of the guacamole is a manchego-basil pesto.  Brilliant.

5.    Waymo/Cybercab.  These things are EVERYWHERE!  (Which honestly makes sense.)  Rode in my first Waymo.  It was a bit weird, but hey, some rideshare drivers are horrible anyway.

4.    Texas Fans.  The Longhorn fans were all very nice and hospitable.  Not one that I saw gave us - or anybody else wearing Gators colors - any grief.  Many offered congratulations after the game.

3.    Arch Manning.  It is clear that Steve Sarkisian and the coaching staff have no trust in Arch Manning.  The playcalling shows that they do not want Manning trying to make (force) plays.  Simple offense with timing more important than decision making.  Even on Manning's one long pass Florida's corner fell down so there was no real defense on the play.

2.    BBQ.  Delicious, and everywhere.

1.    Rainey Street.  This was my kind of place.  Several blocks of low-key bars and restaurants with lots of live music, outdoor patios and even televisions.  Adult vibe.  Surrounding the restaurant/bar blocks are several high rises with a grocery store and other amenities necessary for a community.  Street ends in a park with a 3.2 mile trail.  This is the type of area in which I could live.  Really close to downtown and the university (a long walk or short ride,) but still its on area.  I highly recommend.