Picks of the Week

 

Finally, the type of week I have been looking for this week.  Absolutely incredible.  Hopefully that doesn't mean I fall back-down-to-earth, but so far teh London week games have been good to me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks + 4 v. San Francisco 49ers

Home team, short week didn't work.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Hopefully like last week the favorite prevails.  The Bears defense is running smoothly - 3rd in third-down percentage, fifthe in scoring, 6th in passing and 8th overall.  Is this the week Doug Pederson gets fired a al Robert Saleh?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I hate taking a road intra-divsional favorite, but we just do not know what we will be getting from Spencer Rattler making his first start.  Only reason this spread is like this.  I do have the additional incentive of picking against the team playing on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay is the third-best rushing team in the NFL, whereas Arizona is 28th in stopping the run.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee is coming off a bye and the Colts are battered.  If Will Levis can just keep from committing that one stupid turnover per game ... big If.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 v. Cleveland Browns

Is it time for the Browns to put Wyatt Teller, Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper on the trading block?  A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson return for the Eagles.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Drake Maye is getting his first start for a Patriots team that has sputtered offensively (last in passing and 31st in scoring and 31st overall).  Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson is out from the 8th ranked rushing offense.  Houston meanwhile has the 6th best offense and 4th best defense.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Washington Commanders

I really wanted to take Washington here, as I think they could give the Ravens a game.  However, Washington's offensive strength (2nd in rushing), is also Baltimore's defensive strength (1st in the NFL), and Baltimore's #1 ranked total and rushing offense could actually win the time-of-possession battle that has worked so well for Washington this year.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Both teams offenses rank very low, and both teams defenses rank pretty high, so I will take the points in an intradivisional battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

It is possible that the Raiders get a jolt from Aiden O'Connell taking the helm, but I don't think so.  I just believe this Raiders team is in disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Carolina Panthers

Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite, but the Panthers are not good; 26th in offense and 28th in defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Is it possible that the Cowboys last-minute win against the Steelers turns their season around?  Sure, but I don't believe it.  Too many injuries on the defensive line and no rushing game (31st in the NFL).

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at New York Jets

So Robert Saleh was going to demote Nathaniel Hackett.  Aaron Rodgers got wind of it and complained to the owner, who fired Robert Saleh and slapped the interim head coach tag on Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who then pulled play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett.  Huh?

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Very few solid home teams giving up very little points, so I will take Denver getting them.  My other options were Green Bay -5 1/2, Philadelphia -9, and Denver +3, but this looks the most promising.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  37-36-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $175

 

Picks of the Week

 

I put in no analysis last week, and it showed in the results.  Hopefully a little thought could me a few more wins this week.  Got off to a good start on Thursday night, and hopefully can keep that rolling!

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I hate giving up double digit points to an intradivisional rival, but the fact that this is a short week gave me cover - see what I did there? - to take the Chiefs.  No way was a sweating the ultimately 19-8 victory!  (You better not believe that!)

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Baltimore wins this easily.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Bears getting points at home, with a suddenly resurgent offense (9th in rushing, 11th in scoring and a now-potent passing attack) going aginst the 22nd ranked passing defense, and 20th overall).

Washington Commanders  +1 at Atlanta Falcons

If Washington can keep doing whatever they did in the second half against the Bears, they might have found an offense under Sam Howell.  But, it was the Bears.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco seems to clearly be the class of the NFL right now, so why would I pick Cleveland, with a backup quarterback?  Well, it is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 slot, and, Cleveland's defense is legit!  First in total defense, passing defense and third-down percentage, 3rd in scoring defense, and 4th in rushing defense.  San Francisco very well may win, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points under these circumstance.  Now, let's see who plays QB.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This was a tough call for me, but New Orleans has been playing much better since Alvin Kamara's return, and Houston's strength, it's passing game, could be negated by New Orleans' passing defense, which is 4th in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

This is just a stupid line.  Just stupid.  Nobody in their right mind would give up this many points in an NFL game.  Carolina's defense is solid, also, against the pass at least (6th).  But Miami can run over just about anyone, even with Achane out.  Mostert is fast himself, and a solid running back.  And, something stupid happens every week.  Why not this game, at home, in the heat, against a rookie quarterback experiencing growing pains.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 v. Indianapolis Colts

Gardner Minshew's return to Jacksonville, and don't laugh, but dude can throw.  He has a 95.1 rating so far this year in limited action.  But, Jacksonville seems to be playing better - in London, mind you - than they were in a week 1 31-21 victory over Indianapolis, in Indiana.  I expect this game to be close, but Jacksonville wins it, and covers.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. New England Patriots

Nobody wants to watch this game, and I feel the wheels have come off the Patriots wagon.  Even with the Raiders on a short week, I feel I have to pick them here.  Is it time for Bailey Zappe?  So, the Patriots keep losing and end up with the number 4 pick.  Trade it to Chicago - who holds Carolina's number 1 pick, for a swap in number 1s, a 2025 #1, a 2026 #1, and a 2024 #3.  Go Raiders!!!

Detroit Lions -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Although the Buccaneers are much better than expected playing behind a resurgent Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions are just better.  And the fact they are 9th in total defense is impressive as well.  Detroit can book a ticket to the playoffs playing in the less-than-stellar NFC North; meanwhile the NFC South is equally less-than-stellar. 

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Even though they are only 2-3, the Rams rank 8th in total offense, 5th in passing offense and 14th in scoring.  AND Cooper Kupp is back after knocking off the rust last week with 8 catches for 118 yards.  Arizona's defense leads a lot to be desired, ranking 26th in passing defense, 27th in scoring, and 28th overall.  I expcet the Rams to put up 35 and cruise to a win.

New York Jets +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are undefeated and the Jets are playing Zach Wilson.  But, hear me out here...Wilson has been better, and the Jets defense can be really tough.  Plus, the Eagles haven't really blown anyone out - with a 25-11 victory over Tampa in week 3 their largest margin. Even last week the Eagles beat the Rams by 9 with two 4th quarter field goals from Jake Elliott.  I believe they stay undefeated, but win by 4.

New York Giants +15 at Buffalo Bills

There is no way I am giving up 2 touchdowns or more on 2 different games this week.  Since I am already giving up 14 to Carolina in the Dolphins game, I will not do it here.  Why this game?  Well, I think Daniel Jones is done - whether for good or just in New York I don't know - so I think the team may have more confidence and be better offensively with Tyrod Taylor.  Taylor was 9-12 for 86 yards and 14 yards rushing in limited time last week.  Plus, Taylor will try to actually target their best pass-catcher, Darren Waller.  On top of that, things are "optimistic" that Saquon Barkley will return.  He is a game changer, and can be the difference between losing by 28 and losing by 13.

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys defense is going to come out IRATE after last week's drubbing at the hands of the 49ers. And although corner is a problem right now for Dallas, with passing being the best part of the Chargers offense - even more so with the return of Austin Ekeler - the Chargers' 31st ranked defense, and last ranked pass defense might be just what Dallas needs to re-invigorate CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas offense.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Even though the Browns and Jets are at home getting lots of points, and the Giants are away getting lots of points, I just could not pull the trigger on them as my big bet.  So, here is a home team giving away a few points.  I just have to hope the Bengals did find themselves last week and that it continues over to this week.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  40-34-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($130)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $380

Picks of the Week

 

A decent bounce-back week last week.  Not great, but finished in the positive, so I will take it!  Games start early this weekend because the Jaguars have a home game in London.  I imagine there are a lot of Londoners that have no idea why Blake Bortles isn't in the Hall of Fame, much less not starting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Home team on a short week.  This was a disaster.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons (London)

Home game for Jacksonville.  Atlanta's best feature is their running game, 10th in the NFL.  Jacksonville stops the run (7th in the NFL).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Denver Broncos

Imagine giving up 70 points one week and being favored on the road the next week.  By the way Dolphins fans, a field goal last week would not have broken the NFL single-game points record.  I know they kept saying 72 was the recod on television, but the Bears beat the Washington Racists 73-0 in the 1940 NFL championship game, behind the immortal Sid Luckman.

Houston Texans +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston has the 6th best passing offense in the NFL.  Pittsburgh is 22nd in pass defense.  T.J. Watt may get a couple of sacks, but the back-end of this defense will likely give up over 300+ yards to C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell and company.

Los Angeles Rams +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

I hate that Indianapolis is in the Eastern time zone, because the betting rules say take the Eastern time zone team in this slot.  Also the Rams played Monday night.  Everything about this matchup screams Indianapolis.  But seriously, how are the Colts 2-1?  The have the 20th ranked offense and the 22nd ranked defense.  Los Angeles meanwhile is 1-2 with the 9th best offensive team and the 7th best defensive team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Two 0-3 teams, and not the worst game on the board. See Denver v. Chicago.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay played Monday night, so this is a short week for them.  They also have the 27th ranked offense and 23rd ranked defense.  And those stats come from having played the Bears.

Washington Commanders +9 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are better.  Wayyyy better.  But this is a big number and Pilly is playing on a short week.  I'll take the points.

Buffalo Bills -3 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody is all over the Dolphins because of their 70-spot last week againt Denver, but you cannot carry-over points.  Yes the Dolphins are electric offensively, 1st in total offense, scoring offense, passing offense, and rushing offense, but those stats are incredibly skewed due to the Denver game.  Buffal is 2nd in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, and 3rd in passing defense.  Miami's offense and Buffalo's defense are both sturdy.  But, Miami's defense is 20th in scoring, 20th in passing, 24th in rushing and 24th in total defense, whereas Buffalo's offense is 2nd in scoring, 7th in rushing and 8th in total offense.  Buffalo's offense is better than Miami's defense, so I will take the Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens,

The Browns outrank the Ravens in every offensive category (total, scoring, rushing, and passing.)  Plus, their defense is E-LITE:  2nd in rushing defense, 1st in third down conversion percentage, 1st in passing defense, 1st in total defense and 1st in scoring defense.  Give me the Browns.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

We do not know who will start at quarterback for the Raiders.  We do know it won't be Jimmy Garoppolo (consussion protocol).  It will be Brian Hoyer or Aiden McConnell.  I'll take the Chargers and their second ranked offense.

 

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. New England Patriots

Bounce back game.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers 

San Francisco may still win easily, but this is a lot of points in a divisional game.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at New York Jets

Kansas City is 1-0 in ass-whippings in game in which Taylor Swift attends.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Giants

Do we really have to have two prime time New Jersey games this weekend?  Seattle's defense is practically worthless (30th total, 31st passing, 29th scoring), but the Giants offense is equally worhtless, (24th rushing, 28th passing, 28th total, 31st scoring).  Put it this way, the Bears average more points than the Giants do.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

I usually don't like selecting road teams for my "Big Bet", much less road teams giving points, but nothing about this Tennessee team excites me, and I really think Cincinnati started to clikc in the second half last week.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  25-20-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $435