Picks of the Week

Slightly in the black (now a 3-week winning streak), and that is how we have to chip away at the deficit.  All 16 teams in action this week, so some room to really move up (or down!).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at San Francisco

Glad I picked it, but boy was this game brutal.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

This game is really difficult to pick because this Cowboy team could either come out firing because of the tragic way this team lost on Monday night (blocked punt fumble recovered by Cincinnati for a first down), or just pack the season away.  I would ordinarily think the latter given no real chance at the playoffs for them, except Carolina is worst against the run in the entire NFL and Rico Dowdle has show some spark running.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

I haven't had a strong feeling about a back-door cover in a long time, but the facts that this Chiefs defense is really good, but that somehow they generally play really close games.  Perhaps a late Jameis Winston TD to lose 24-20.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins being back is a game-changer, but the team - other than the Dallas game - has not been as dominating as it should be.  I think last week we finally got to see the true Tyreek Hill after a long drought (10-115-1).

Washington Commanders -7 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

What is a Jake Haener?

 

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I should pick Tennessee here because they have the #1 ranked defense against the pass (and second overall) and because Cincinnati played Monday night - but that just isn't how I see it.  Burrow throws for close to 300 and Cincinnati cruises.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 v. New York Jets

We are just weeks away from Aaron Rodgers joining the leadership of the Department of Health and Human Services, and we expect him to care about the Jaguars?  Also, Mac Jones has historically played really well against the Jets.

New York Giants +16 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

It is almost absurd that an NFL team is giving 16 1/2 points while at home, and I still seriously considered taking the Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson's QB Rating is 64.3, primarily because his completion percentage is 47.44%.

Buffalo Bills +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

The two best teams in the league right now, so I will take the points.  That is all I am basing this pick on.  Getting points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is essentially a playoff game, as both teams are in playoff contention, and like the Bills pick above, I will take the points.  Plus, we do not know what we might get out of an injured Justin Herbert today.

Arizona Cardinals -6 v. New England Patriots

Arizona is just one of those teams that play great when you don't expect them to, and they play bad when you expect them to play well.  I don't know, so I'll just expect them to win here, and I hope they cover.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/5 v. Green Bay Packers

Seattle recently defeated Aaron Rodgers, so now I expect them to take out his former team.  Honestly, I think this Seattle team is way better than most people think, and they are getting points at home.  I'll take it.

Minnesota Vikings -7 v. Chicago Bears

Yes, the Bears have played the NFC Central extremely close, having recently covered against the Vikings at home.  This isn't the same as the Bears have fired Matt Eberflus and the team looked absent last week.  Vikings at home.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Desmond Ridder will feature prominently, and not for the Falcons.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?

I would like this better if Pittsburgh at home, even though the spread then woul dbe like 3 or 2 1/2, but I still like this pick.  Two of the best total defenses in the NFL (Philly 1; Pittsburgh 5), but unless the Eagles get more balance on offense (1st in rushing, 31st in passing), then Pittsburgh's defense can just key on Barkley.  No George Pickens hurts, but likely not that much as Wilson likes to spread things around anyway.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-4-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  100-99-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-6

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 95

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($685)

Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!!  And we all know what Thanksgiving means ...  NFL Football!!!  Time for me to say thank you to all you readers - or both readers - wichever is most accurate!  I am happy that from time-to-time you pay attention to my musings.  Although I don't expect anybody to necessarily read this, I do appreciate when I find out that you do!  Enjoy Thanksgiving and football!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Listen, after watching the Bears take the Lions down to the wire last weekend, there is no way that I like this pick, but it is a short week, and the Lions are home.  Plus, I feel like they think they have something to prove after last week's close call.

Dallas Cowboys -13 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Two gambling rules facing off against each other:  (1) Take the home team on a short week versus (2) Take double digit intradivsional underdog.  Not sure exactly what to do here, but Dallas' offense has really been clicking and the Commanders' defense is missing Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  I hate giving up double digits, but why not.

San Francisco 49ers -7 at Seattle Seahawks

OK, so this isn't the home team, but, home team on short weeks only cover 2/3rds of the time.  So, this is my 1/3rd prediction, especially since I don't expect Geno Smith to be back to 100%, and gthey only have the 19th best offense even when he is.

New York Jets +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Another home team/short week as this game is on Friday.  I am taking the Jets just because they have the 5th best passing defense and the 9th best total defense.  Not sure how many points the Jets will score under Tim Boyle, but I think the defense can keep the score low, so I will take 9 1/2.

Houston Texans +2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars seem like the better team, but they have the 29th ranked passing defense going up against Houston's 2nd ranke passing offense.  They both give up approximately the same amount of points (20.4 for Jacksonville and 20.8 for Houston), so I will take the points at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Unknown qualities here - Jake Browning for Cincinnati and new offensive play caller for Pittsburgh.  In that scenario, I'll take TJ Watt.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers continue their march to the Chicago Bears #1 overall pick!  Honestly, not a lot of thought to this one, taking the home below average team over the visiting awful team.

New Orleans Saints +1 at Atlanta Falcons

Two pretty good defenses, and two very average offenses.  One team has Arthur Smith coaching, so I will take a point and take the other team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Two teams that are way better than their record, but way worse statistically than their play.  Of note is Tampa's sixth-ranked rush defense going against Indianapolis' 10th ranked rush offense.  If I think it is going to be close, I'll take the points.

New York Giants +3 1/2 v. New England Patriots

If we can get the Giants team that played the Commanders last week, this should be easy; but no guarantee that happens.  Either way New England isn't that much better, so I'll take points.

Cleveland Browns +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Denver is much improved from the beginning of the year, but this Browns defense is no joke.  First overall, first in passing yards, first in 3rd down defense, 6th in scoring and 11th in rushing defense.  And I get points?  I feel like Dorian Thompson-Robinson is athletic enough to make the plays when he needs to do so, and the defense keeps the Broncos from scoring too much.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played well in a loss last week to Houston, and Kyler Murray is back with a game under his belt, but the Rams should get Khyren Williams back with Matthew Stafford.  I'll take the Rams.

Buffalo Bills +3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Bills are spiraling offensively, and especially turnover-wise, but Philadelphia is coming off a tough Monday night win over the Chiefs, which could affect them this week (plus it's a short week with Thanksgiving in the middle).  I'll take the points and the somewhat normal week.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders are playing inspired ball under Antonio Pearce, and although they may not win this game, Kansas City drops enough balls to keep this within a touchdown.  The Raiders limited the Dolphins to only 20 points last week, so that could continue, plus the Chiefs are coming off a heartbreaker on Monday night, and the short week - with a Thanksgiving interruption - doesn't bode well for the Chiefst to have to travel to Vegas.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

The NFL's worst pass defense and total defense hosting Lamar Jackson's 4th highest scoring offense and 6th best total offense.  Although the Chargers have offensive talent, the Ravens look to distance themselves a bit from the AFC North, with the injuries to Joe Burrow and DeShaun Watson.

Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Bears played Detroit great for 55 minutes last week.  If they can do that this week, this game will be close enough for a cover.  The Bears are 4th in rushing offense and second in rushing defense.  In most years without Matt Eberflus coaching that produces a winning team.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Unknown qualities here - Jake Browning for Cincinnati and new offensive play caller for Pittsburgh.  In that scenario, I'll take TJ Watt.

I don't like any of these games for my big bet, as the ones that I feel most sure about have some big spreads.  So, I'll just bet against Jake Browning.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  89-66-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,715  

Picks of the Week

 

11-3!!!  Against the spread.  That is all I am going to say!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Carolina Panthers

Home team, short week, tie.  Ugh!

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. New England Patriots (Frankfurt, Germany)

Colts offense too much for the Patriots.  Hate that this is the 9:30 game, as I don't want to watch it.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are just not good.  Steelers statistics are well below their record, but they just make the plays when then need to do so - especially on defense - and Diontae Johnson could have a field day without Jaire Aleaxander.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Minnesota Vikings

Since this isn't an intra-divisional game, I don't mind giving up a few points on the road. Josh Dobbs was a great story last week, but now he actually has time to plan, prepare and think about the gameplan - and sometimes that can hurt a team.  Honestly this is going to come down to if Minnesota can run or not, and they are 29th in the league, so that answer is no.

Houston Texans +6 at Cincinnati Bengals

This might be the most enjoyable game of the week.  Taking the points despite the fact that the Bengals have been playing awesome football lately because J'Marr Chase, if he plays, will be limited by a back injury and Tee Higgins has already been ruled out.  Grab Tyler Boyd for your fantasy team!

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Yes, it is hard to move the ball, much less score against Cleveland's defense, but, the Ravens give up less points (13.8 to 17.4), and Cleveland is missing its top 3 tackles.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Tennessee Titans

I do not like this line AT ALL.  Either way.  I guess I'll take the home team.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Taking the east coast team against the west coast team in the 1:00 slot game.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

A lot of points are going to be scored here, and I will definitely be watching.  Chargers defense is 31st in total defense and last in passing defense. Jared Goff goes off.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

I don't know what to make of this game because we just don't know how rusty Kyler Murray will be.  And, Arthur Smith at some point has to learn he can use Bijan Robinson, right?

Washington Commanders +6 at Seattle Seahawks

A battle of two teams that are both way better than people expect, and possibly even better than their records.  I'll take the points, as I think this should have been about a 2 1/2 or 3 point spread.

Dallas Cowboys -17 1/2 v. New York Giants

This is the most ridiculous line I have seen in a long, long time in an NFL game.  So, why not?  The only think that concerns me is if Tommy DeVito has some mobbed up relatives that are betting a lot on the Giants.

Las Vegas Raiders +1 v. New York Jets

Honestly, who care about this game?  Raiders win big.  Plus, Jets played Monday night.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Denver Broncos

I don't like this line either.  Would be just as angry in picking the Broncos.  In this situation, I will take the home team and the team I feel is just more likely to win the game.

Bye Week:  Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are just not good.  Steelers statistics are well below their record, but they just make the plays when then need to do so - especially on defense - and Diontae Johnson could have a field day without Jaire Aleaxander.

Sometimes you do have to take the game that you think is the obvious pick.

Last Week's Record:  11-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  75-54-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $605

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,650 

Picks of the Week

 

Alright, stop me if you have heard this before... another .500 week.  And, another small winning week.  I would, of course, love a big winning week, but anytime you finish in the black.  Hope this continues.  But, it is Packers week, with the Kentucky Wildcats playing hoops in Michigan at the same time.  Gotta keep my head on a swivel today.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Buffalo Bills -4 at New England Patriots

A rare occasion when I select the road team on a Thursday.  But, by virtue of Buffalo having played on Thanksgiving, this was not a short week for them.  

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Not since the year before the DeShaun Watson draft, I mean the Mitchell Trubisky draft, have I been this excited for losses (GO WILL ANDERSON!!!), but a cover I will take. Not sure of the Aaron Rodgers situation (although I know he is playing, and the Bears defense is 27th against the rush, but the Packers defense is 31st against the rush and the Bears are the number 1 rushing team in the NFL thanks to the dynamic Justin Fields.  Packers by 3.

Philadelphia  -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

By almost any analysis this should be a close game, except something tells me A.J. Brown might have something to prove.

 

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 at Detroit Lions

I have been on the Detroit Lions betting train all year, but Jacksonville is seriously underrated as a bet also.  Both teams have about the same level of offensive numbers overall, and the Jaguars defense is mediocre whereas the Lions defense is putrid.

Cleveland Browns -8 at Houston Texans

Do I expect DeShaun Watson to be rusty in his first game back in forever?  Yes.  Do I think 8 points is too much to give in such a game?  Also yes.  Why I am picking them?  Houston has the worst offense in the league overall, and are 30th in scoring offense.  They are also 29th in the league in overall defense, but last in rushing defense.  Nick Chubb carries this day while Watson shakes off the rust.

New York Jets +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Jets are much, much better with Mike White behind center, and the Vikings are dead last in the NFL in passing defense.  Jets do just enough to cover against the Noon Nightmare Kirk Cousins at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

Denver Broncos +9 at Baltimore Ravens

Don't get me wrong, the Broncos won't win this game.  But, after racing out to a big lead, the Ravens collapse in the fourth and Denver back-door covers with a late field goal to cut it to 8.

Washington Commanders -2 at New York Giants

The Giants are going backwards, having lost 2 in a row and 3 of their last 4 (the other a victory over the Texans), whereas the Commanders have won 3 in a row, and have looked like a playoff team since settling on Taylor Heinicke as the starting quarterback.  Plus, the Commanders at 8th in the NFL in rushing defense have the ability to slow down Saquon Barkley.  This is dangerous, though, in picking a road intra-divisional favorite, but I am going to do it.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

This is THE game of the week to watch.  A dynamic offense in Miami (2nd in passing, 3rd overall, and 6th in scoring) versus THE defense in the NFL in San Francisco (1st overall, 1st in scoring, 1st in rushing, 11th in passing).  But, San Franciso's offense - which is overall 11th in the NFL - has a boost in that Christian McCaffrey is becoming more and more familiar with the scheme and the team.  San Fran here.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Another road favorite in an intradivisional game, except the Rams are starting John Wolford.

Las Vegas Raiders -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers are banged up and Raiders have won two in a row.  I believe they can make it three.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Two quarterbacks playing at really high levels - Mahomes 105.3 rating; Burrow 101.7 rating.  And, with J'Marr Chase being back, I will take points at home.

Indianapolis Colts +10 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

With Matt Ryan back, I think the Colts can play smart enough to cover this double-digit spread - or at least I hope.  I hate giving up 10 or more points, so I will take them.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In a game that I will likely not even watch, I am just taking the points.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -1 at Atlanta Falcons

The Steelers have won 2 of their 3 games after the bye, and their loss was by one score to the Bengals.  More importantly, they just seem to be playing better.  Plus, I need the Falcons to lose so when they trade up to 2 with the Bears to draft whomever is left after CJ Stroud or Bryce Young goes first, that the Bears get like the 4th or 5th pick so they can still get Will Anderson.

I hate giving up points in the Big Bet, so -1 isn't really giving up points.  But, I also hate picking road teams more for a Big Bet, so, I am picking a road team. I considered Washignton (-2 at Giants) and San Francisco (-4 1/2 v. Dolphins) here.

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  87-85-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($630)

Picks of the Week

The NFL is back!!!!  That means that the newest installment of my NFL picks of the week is also back!!!  Yes, this can be humiliating at times, rewarding at others, but for those of you that do or don't like some of my picks, just know it is A LOT more difficult when you force yourself to do EVERY game, and not pick-and-choose the ones you think are the easiest bets.  And with that, I am very much looking forward to this year!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

A very good home team getting points in the opening weekend?  I'll take them.  We saw how that turned out!  Ugh.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is not a homer bet.  The Bears don't look to be a very good team by most prognostications, but do we really know what The 49ers have in Trey Lance?  No.  Do we know what the Bears have in Justin Fields?  Also know.  I'll take the almost touchdown.

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I have changed my mind many times on this game.  I think that Jalen Hurts has a chance to be VERY good, and now the Eagles have added A.J. Brown as a weapon on the outside.  But I keep remembering just how tough Detroit has played damn near everyone since Dan Campbell arrived as head coach, and they are at home.  Philadelphia may win, but Detroit keeps it close.

Houston Texans +7 v. Indianapolis Colts

Admittedly this is just a chance to continue the run of selecting home underdogs.  Colts still win, but this game has backdoor cover all over it.

Celveland Browns pick 'em Carolina Panthers

So, some road teams are going to win, right?  Might as well pick the one that doesn't have to give up points!  (And the one that has Nick Chubb AND Kareem Hunt!)  Baker will have a chip on his shoulder, but we won't really iknow what we are getting from Christian McCaffrey coming off his injury, and how Baker is going to gel with the receivers.

Washington Commanders -3 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Damn it feels good to type that.  Even if it wasn't perhaps the best choice.  It beats having to type "Football Team" as well as "Racists" as in the past.  For that reason alone, and the fact that even with the Chase Young injury Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen and Montez Sweat make up the fiercest defensive line - meaning the entire line - in the NFL.

New England Patriots +3 at Miami Dolphins

Do I believe that the Dolphins are much improved, especially with the addition of Tyreek Hill?  Yes I do.  Do I also believe that Tuaniggamanuolepola Tagovailoa will also be improved with the confidence of the team and being the undisputed started?  Yes, I do.  Do I believe that these are the type of circumstances where Bill Belichick loves to screw with opposing teams, opposing coaches' minds, opposing fans, and also the betting lines?  Definitely.

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, Cincinnati is coming off of a phenomenal playoff run.  Yes, the seem to have improved their number 1 weakness from last year, the offensive line.  But, seems doesn't block T.J. Watt, and Pittsburgh beat Cincinnati both times they played last year.  AND, it looks like Pittsburgh will have a more-than-competent quarterback this year.  (Did I just say that about Mitchell Trubisky?)

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at New York Jets

I cannot pick all of the home underdogs, right?  On paper Lamar Jackson is just so much better than the New York Jets.  I mean, it isn't like the Ravens secretary is full of Zach Wilson's mom's friends!  Only question is where is Jackson's mindset after the team and Jackson could not come to terms on an extension.  I think Jackson will be out to prove that he is worth as much as any quarterback in the league.  Think about it, he is the only NFL MVP from the QB position to have won the award before he turned 23.

Atlanta Falcons + 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

This bet seems too easy.  New Orleans all the way.  I hate this bet.  I cannot believe that I am putting it on "paper."  But, I have this feeling we might get to see Desmond Ridder, and Jameis Winston could always thrown 4 or 5 picks.  (He could also throw 4 or 5 interceptions too.)  Home divisional rival getting points.  God do I hate this pick.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Patrick Mahomes is undefeated in opening games, having thrown 13 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.  That continues today.  Arizona strengthened its WR corps by adding Marquise Brown, but DeAndre Hopkins is suspended and Rondale Moore is out.  Zach Ertz is also questionable.  Juju Smith-Schuster has an amazing game.

Tennessee Titans -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Lots of bets against the Giants from me unless and until Saquon Barkley proves he can play a full complement of plays each-and-every game at the original Saquon Barkley level.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

What is a Romeo Doubs?  Still, I make this pick with trepidation as you can never be confident betting against Aaron Rodgers.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

How many sacks can Joey Bosa earn playing opposite Khalil Mack?  Robert Quinn had 18 1/2 last year.  Chargers are my early pick to win the AFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I have changed this pick 3 or 4 times.  I don't like the line.  I don't like trying to figure out how Tampa is going to be with apossibly still ailing Chris Godwin and an aging Julio Jones.  I do love the situation Cameron Brate finds himself in, though.  Six or 7 catches for him today!

Denver Broncos -6 1/2 at Seattle Seawhawks

Big number for a divisional rival - wait - they haven't been rivals for a long time.  And Seattle looks like they are going to stink!!!  I have no qualms about picking this road favorite.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

So, when selecting a big bet, I always try to find a home team, and either getting points or giving away a small number.  Lots of home teams getting points this week.  But, I found a game getting points on the road, but with a big number that stands out to me.  An intra-divisional rivalry in which the number is inflated because of Cincinnati's playoff run last year.  (They were not the best team in the AFC - they just got hot at the right time.)  And although Cincinnati may have improved, it looks like Pittsburgh did as well.  Watch for George Pickens' to have his coming-out party, if not this week, then soon!!!

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Last Week's Record:  0-0

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0

Year-to-Date Record:  0-0

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):

Picks of the Week

 

A setback last week, but here's hoping we can finish the regular season strong (although a really bad start last night).  I am rushed for time this morning, so no analysis, just picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 at Denver Broncos

Philadelphia Eagles +6 v. Dallas Cowboys

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Chicago Bears

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Cleveland Browns -5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Washington Football Team -7 at New York Giants

Tennessee Titans -11 at Houston Texans

Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Green Bay Packers -3 at Detroit Lions

New York Jets +16 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -9 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Miami Dolphins +6 v. New England Patriots

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Last Week's Record:  6-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  136-120

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($200)

Picks of the Week

    

So, I don't want to jinx myself, but four winning weeks in a row, and last week was PHENOMENAL!!! I mean it, so I will say it again, PHENOMENAL!!!  That means I have to come back to the mean at some point, right?  I hope I can keep this up.  I know a couple of teams have closed their training sites due to Covid, but at this point no games have been canceled/postponed.  Since I am doing this on Saturday, any Sunday cancellations will not be scored.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears + 1 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

How are the Bears not favored?  Carolina has the 25th ranked rushing defense, so David Montgomery should hasve a field day.

Cincinnati Bengals +8 at  Indianapolis Colts

If this was 6 1/2, I would take the Colts.  They win by a touchdown.  A late TD from Joe Burrow makes the final close (backdoor cover).

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Detroit Lions

In a battle of two bad teams, I will take points for the home team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Neither team is performnig up to expectations, but Atlanta has the 31st ranked total defense and Minnesota - hehind Dalvin Cook - has the the best rushing offense.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Football Team

God, I still love typing "Football Team" instead of "Racists".  Giants win this one because despite being horrible, they have the 8th best total offense and 10th best passing offense.  

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Not only are the Eagles horrible, but the Ravens have the 3rd best rusing offense and the 5th best rushing defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Yes the Browns are 4-1, but the Steelers have the 6th best scoring defense, 4th best passing defense, 3rd best total defense, and 2nd best rusing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans

At some point people are going to realize tht last year for Tennessee wasn't a fluke, and that Ryan Tannehill can ball.  I am leery of this one because of the short week.

Denver Broncos +9 at New England Patriots

This spread is just too high, especially given that Drew Lock is supposed to play this week.

Miami Dolphins -9 v. New York Jets

The Jets are horrible, but are they 9 points worse than the 2-3 Dolphins?  Yes, they are.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I have said it about 4 times already this year, Aaron Rodgers is on a mission.

Los Angeles Rams -3 at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco seems a bit lost right now, and the Rams are both 4th in total offense and total defense.

Buffalo Bills +4 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City seems a bit off the last few weeks, and Buffalo getting points? .. .I'll take them.

Arizona Cardinals -1 at Dallas Cowboys

Tough to guess how Dallas will bounce back from Dak Prescott's injury.  My guess is they will not.

Bye Week - Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, Seattle Seahawks

Big Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Yes the Browns are 4-1, but the Steelers have the 6th best scoring defense, 4th best passing defense, 3rd best total defense, and 2nd best rusing defense.

I wanted to take Tennesee, but they are on a short week, so I will take Pittsburgh's defense.

Last Week's Record:  12-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  47-28-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $1130
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2370

Picks of the Week

   

So I say this not to jinx myself, but just to post information - three winning weeks in a row.  I hope I can keep this up.  No time for a lot of analysis this week, as I am travelling and pressed for time, but I do want to get these out.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears + 3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Short week, home team!

Carolina Panthers +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Short week for Atlanta.

Baltimore Ravens -12 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I know it looks like too many points, but Cincinnati cannot stop anybody.

Houston Texans -6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jaguars have been disappointing versus the spread since week 2.

Las Vegas Raiders +12 at Kansas City Chiefs

I cannot give up 12 points in two games this week, and Chiefs are on a short week.

Arizona Cardinals -7 at New York Jets

I hate going against the betting rules, but Arizona isn't really west coast.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles are bad.

Washington Football Team +7 v. Los Angelse Rams

I cannot pick two west coast going east, and perhaps Kyle Allen can spark something in Washington.

Miami Dolphins +8 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Garropolo might be back, but could be rusty.  San Fran missing too much talent.  Win by 7.

Cleveland Browns +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

Basically a pick 'em on the board, and in my head.  I could have gone either way.

New York Giants +8 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Both awful teams, and no the Cowboys have lost one of their best players - Tyron Smith - for the season.

Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Minnesota Vikings

Seattle is just playing too well.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots (No Line)

If this is single digits I am taking New England.  If not, I will check back and choose when a line is up.

Los Angeles Chargers +8 1/2 at New Orlenas Saints

This is a really big spread for how poorly New Orleans has looked this year.

Bye Week - Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers

Big Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles are bad.

Because Pittsburgh is coming off its Covid-induced bye (because of Tennessee, not Pittsburgh) and because of its defense (1st in rushing defense, 2nd in total defense, 5th in scoring defense, and 6th in passing defense).

Last Week's Record:  8-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  35-26-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $290
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1240

Picks of the Week

Three consecutive winning weeks!!!  I know at some point that streak will end, I just hope that it isn't today.  A silly push on Thursday, but at least it was't a loss!!!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Green Bay Packers
After last week's Carolina debacle, I am going back to following the rules, don't bet on the visiting team on a short week.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I really have no idea who to pick in this game.  Atlanta's offense and Dallas's defense are both really good, but the other sides of the ball stink.  Usually in a situation like this I take the points, but this time I am taking the home team as Dallas is coming off an emotion intra-divisional victory.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
I think this line is too high, especially given that Lamar Jackson might make his first NFL start.  That being said, with no A.J. Green, and with a great Ravens defense, it is hard for me to see the Bengals doing much of anything offensively.  It's the old adage - defense and running game - that I am betting on here.

Carolina Panthers -4 at Detroit Lions
You should know by now that I hate taking road favorites, but the Lions are not good and Carolina is 7-1 against the spread coming off a loss.  I will take a bounce back performance.

Tennessee Titans +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This Titans team will make life tough for somebody in the playoffs.  They start by making a run toward the top of the AFC South with a win over the Colts.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New York Giants
Both teams stink, so I will take the points.  Plus, Fitzmagic is coming off a good high from the Harvard victory over Yale yesterday at Fenway Park.  This likely means Cameron Brate scores a touchdown as well!

Houston Texans -3 at Washington Racists
Both teams are 6-3 and lead their respective divisions, but it seems like the Texans have more talent while Washington seems to be doing this courtesy of a horrible division.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
So the story comes out today that the Jaguars are open to trading Jalen Ramsey in the offseason.  On the morning of a game.  Ridiculous.

Arizona Cardinals -5 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in utter disarray!

Denver Broncos +7 at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers should win this game, but it is an intra-divisional game, and I think Denver runs the ball enough to keep the game close.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
This is not last year's Philly team.  Middle of the road in total offense and defense.  Meanwhile, New Orleans is 5th in total yards, while first in points and first in rushing defense.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
This should be a close game and the spread reflects that.  The Bears defense leads the way (2nd in rushing defense, 3rd in 3rd down percentage and 4th in total defense and points allowed), but the offense is 5th in points scored as well .  They could use a bit more of a running game against Minnesota which is 3rd in rush defense and 5th in total defense.  However, I honestly trust Mitchell Trubisky more in a big spot than I do Kirk Cousins right now.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Two high-flying offenses, but the Rams defense is 13th overall (10th against the run and 12th in points allowed), whereas the Chiefs defense is 29th overall (29th against the pass, 22nd against thr run and 18th in points allowed).  Given the emotional lift of all of the first responders to the California wildfires being given free tickets, I will take the Rams defense.

Big Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers -4 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
So the story comes out today that the Jaguars are open to trading Jalen Ramsey in the offseason.  On the morning of a game.  Ridiculous.
Ordinarily I would like to pick a home team and/or a team receiving points, but this Jalen Ramsey news is a bombshell.  What on earth is going on in that locker room.

Last Week's Record:  7-6-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  77-64-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $190

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $585

Divisional Playoffs/Picks of the Week

A really good opening week to the playoffs.  Just a couple of plays from an extraordinary week.  Hopefully that continues.  Once again, for the playoffs and since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, the Eagles are the home team and yes they are the number 1 seed.  Yes, the Falcons are the number 6 seed.  The Falcons are the reigning NFC champions, they did win 10 games this year and they are starting their starting quarterback.  This game features the seventh ranked defense (Eagles) and 8th ranked defense (Falcons) in the NFL  I will take Matt Ryan and the experience of the Falcons over the versatility of the Eagles offense.  24-21.

Atlanta Falcons -$150 at Philadelphia Eagles
Since I feel Atlanta will cover the spread, I have to take them with the money line, especially since Philly is only +$130, so not much extra incentive to take the Eagles here.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 40
Two really good defenses, but 40 really isn't a lot of points.  Like I said before, 24-12, Atlanta.

Tennessee Titans +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
Let's get this straight from the beginning:  there is no way Tennessee wins this matchup.  I just think that with the tough running of Derrick Henry, and Mariota making a few plays, the Patriots might only win by 10.

New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
This is really a suckers bet.  Not because I don't think New England will win, but because there is little or no value in making this bet, but since I am picking each games money line, I am definitely taking the Patriots.  No doubt they win.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I am not sure Tennessee scores enough to get to the 48.  New England 28-18, maybe?

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville destroyed Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this year.  I do not expect that to happen again, but I also expect that the Jaguars defense can keep this game closer than the line.

Pittsburgh Steelers -$320 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $320 to win $100)
Not a value bet, but I feel good about Pittsburgh's chances to win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41
Blake Bortles looks like he is playing like Blake Bortles.  This could end up being a 20-14 game.

New Orleans Saints +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has had a great season, finishing 11th in total offense and 1st in total defense, but New Orleans is second in total offense, and they will put enough points on the board to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints +$200 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $200)
Yes, I think that New Orleans will win outright over the Vikings, so I will take the money line bet.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings OVER 46
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has no chance to advance.

Last Week's Record: 7-5
Playoff Record - 7-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  131-129-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $200
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $200
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1010)

Picks of the Week

Two straight 8-8 weeks, but both big bets were successful, meaning I am inching my way back from the massive whole I dug for myself to start the season.  Hopefully, I can make a bigger dent in that deficit today.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints
Home team on a short week.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 v. Chicago Bears
No faith in my team for this year.  The third or fourth pick could be very valuable this year for team's needing to trade up for a quarterback.

Indianapolis Colts +3 at Buffalo Bills
I think Nathan Peterman, who will start today, will have a better performance than his last start, bit that doesn't mean it will be good.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Just playing the odds here, very few teams ever really win 9 games in a row, right?  It might be cliche, but the trenches will decide this game as Carolina is 5th in rushing and 4th in rushing defense, whereas Minnesota is sixth in rushing and second in rushing defense.  I'll take points at home.

Green Bay Packers  -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Brett Hundley has started to look serviceable lately, and the Browns are, well, the Browns.Josh Gordon is already the teams leading receiver for the season.  OK, not really, but Corey Coleman with 206 receiving yards FOR THE SEASON is their best receiver not named Gordon.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans
Tom Savage, giving points.

Oakland Raiders  +4 at Kansas City Chiefs
Oakland beat Kansas City in Oakland back when the Chiefs were playing well.  The Chiefs have gone 1-5 since that game (including that loss), so I will take the points.

Detroit Lions pick 'em at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Detroit has the sixth best passing offense and the Buccaneers have the 31st ranked passing defense (and 31st overall).  Tampa Bay is also dead last in third down percentage defense.  I would have thought Detroit would have been giving 2 or 3 points in this game.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New York Giants
Dallas's offense came alive last week, even without Ezekial Elliott.  This, after being absolutely dreadful for two weeks.  The difference, apparently, is not Elliott.  The difference is Tyron Smith, who returned to the lineup against the Racists.  He is back again this week.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
The Titans are leading the AFC South.  Yes, leading.  Arizona is helmed by Blaine Gabbert.  Adrian Peterson has given the Cardinals some life since being acquired by Arizona, but Tennesseehas the third best rushing defense giving up 86.2 yards per game.  Tennessee stays atop Jacksonville.

New York Jets -1 at Denver Broncos
The Jets, quarterbacked by Josh McCown, has by far the most stable quarterbacking situation in this game.  Denver's defense is still the fifth ranked defense in the NFL, but their offense is atrocious.

Washington Racists +6 at Los Angeles Chargers
When I first saw this line, I immediately thought Chargers.  They have the second best passing offense and have given up the fourth fewest points in the NFL.  But, something seems fishy; something that I cannot put my finger on to analyze.  Maybe it is that nobody can explain Kirk Cousins, so he might bounce back after last week's shellacking.  I am not sure.  But I am leery of giving up the six points here.  Not confident about this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is a tough one to decipher.  Seattle, or at least Russell Wilson, has looked great in the last few games (really all season).  And, since Wilson is so elusive, it is hard to sack him - which is Jacksonville's forte. But, Jacksonville rushes better than any team in the league at almost 150 yards per game.Seattle's defense is the seventh best rush defense, but their quality and lack of depth due to the entire secondary being out (practically) that it is going to be hard to trust them to put 8 men in the box to stop Fournette.  This could be dangerous.

Philadelphia Eagles pick 'em at Los Angeles Rams
The two highest scoring offenses in the league, but I am going with Philadelphia because the have the number one rushing defense in the NFL at 68.1 yards per game, and the 3rd best defense in yards per game and 3rd down percentage defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win or tie against the Ravens.  Although Baltimore, led by their defense which has given up the third fewest points in the league, has been surprisingly good of late.  Still, I think they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.

New England Patriots -10 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
So, yes, I am taking an double-digit, intra-divisional, road favorite, which goes against everything I usually hate to pick, but, it is Bill Belichek and Tom Brady versus a very mundane and boring offense led by Jay Cutler, which usually only scores 17 points per game on average anyway.  Assuming New England's defense, which gives up a ton of yards by only the 9th most points, holds Miami near its average, New England would only have to 28 or so points.  That's why they call it gambling.

Big Bet

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers can clinch the AFC North title with a win or tie against the Ravens.  Although Baltimore, led by their defense which has given up the third fewest points in the league, has been surprisingly good of late.  Still, I think they are doing it with smoke and mirrors.
I hate waiting for the night game for my big bet, but I really have no choice here.  My other options were:  (1) Colts at Buffalo, but they are away and they are the Colts, even though they are getting points; (2) Green Bay at Cleveland, but they are a visiting team giving points; (3) Detroit over Tampa Bay, but Ameer Abdullah is out of the game; and (4) New England over Miami - but 10 1/2 points is a big number.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  93-92-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($465)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

What a week last week.  11-1, and the 1 is only because Houston scored a couple of touchdowns to hit the over.  I will take a lot of weeks like that one.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

No roundtable discussion this week, but Hopps has some interesting perspectives on today's games.

"The winners will be the Steelers and the Falcons.  Well, ... and really, really rich old white guys."

And, since Donald Trump is a supporter of the Patriots owner, coach and quarterback, and since Donald Trump has now succeeded Barack Obama as President of the United States the following quip is now actually true, "Orange IS the new black".

Onto the picks ...

Green Bay Packers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
Obviously Atlanta's defense is markedly better than last year, but do you really think that they are going to be able to shut down Aaron Rodgers to the point where they win by more than a touchdown.  I think this is going to be a close, high scoring game.  Green Bay has won 8 in a row, and Atlanta has won 5 in a row, so both teams come into this game clicking.  Should be a great game for viewers, especially those that like lots of passing.

Atlanta Falcons -215 v. Green Bay Packers (Bet $215 to win $100)
Green Bay has won 8 in a row, but what are the chances they win 9?  Atlanta has quietly been the best team in the NFC all season, despite the hype given to Dallas because of the Cowboys' record.  They can pass, they can run, and they can rush the passer.  I look for them to make the Super Bowl, and leave Eugene Robinson at home.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (60) OVER
Who doesn't think this could end 41-37, or 37-31?  If both teams hit their averages in points scores, this over wins.  Plus, both quarterbacks throw for 300+ yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 at New England Patriots
This game should also be close, as Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown should all have big games.  Brady and Blount are no slouches themselves, and may even win this game, but I don't think they will cover.  Pittsburgh's defense is 12th in total yards, and 10th in points, which should keep them close.

New England Patriots -240 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $240 to win $100)
As close as Pittsburgh should keep this game, Tom Brady still finds a way to pull this one out.  The Patriots under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are 9-2 against Pittsburgh, and they should continue that today.

Pittsburgh Steelers at at New England Patriots (49 1/2) OVER
Roethlisberger and Brady both throw for over 300 yards and have multiple touchdown passes each..

Last Week's Record:  11-1
Year-to-Date Record:  148-129-5
Playoff Record:  16-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1095
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): $875
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($685)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

Just under .500 last week, but I knew that was going to happen.  I took the Dolphins because of the money line even though I new the Steelers were going to win.  The money line bet was just too tempting.  I don't think I completely mis-read Seattle as they did not look that great, but Detroit was just worse.  Anyway, 5-7 should be easy to bounce back from.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Here I go gain, underestimating the Seahawks, but we have a basis for this.  Earlier in the season, Seattle beat Atlanta by 2 at home coming off a bye in a week in which Atlanta had to travel to Denver and Seattle back-to-back.  And Seattle had Earl Thomas then.  Ryan still threw for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns.  This week, Atlanta has the bye and is at home.  I'll take Atlanta to win by 10.

Atlanta Falcons -240 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $240 to win $100)
If I think that Atlanta is going to win by 10, I better take the money line, and -240 is not that outrageous of a risk.  Atlanta has a defense this year - or at least a pass rush.  They should advance to the NFC Championship Game.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (52 1/2) OVER
Super enticing number to go either way, but earlier this year the teams scored exactly 50.  Earl Thomas' loss means more points for Atlanta, so I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -15 1/2 v. Houston Texans
New England won earlier this year 27-0 without Tom Brady.  Of the 5 largest postseason spreads, the favorite covered in 4 of them, with the exception being Super Bowl III.

New England Patriots -1400 v. Houston Texans (Bet $1400 to win $100)
A ridiculous money line, which is at -2000 at the Wynn, but the Texans are not a real playoff team.  Even a +1000 for Houston is not enough to get me to pick them.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (44 1/2) UNDER
I am not sure that Houston will score more than 7 in this game.

Green Bay Packers +4 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Green Bay has won 6 in a row since week 11 loss to the Washington Racists, and no quarterback is playing as well as Aaron Rodgers.  Even if the Cowboys win, it will be close.  I'll take the points.

Green Bay Packers +200 at Dallas Cowboys (Bet $100 to win $200)
Dallas's rookies are still rookies, and Aaron Rodgers is not.  The Packers actually have a semblance of a running game to at least pretend they are balanced, and Davante Adams has been one of the best receivers all year.  I will take the Packers to win this outright.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (51 1/2) OVER
31-27 gets me to this over, and I think that could happen very easily.

Pittsburgh Steelers + 1 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has had a nice season, bolstered by Denver's Super Bowl hangover and a Derek Carr injury, though.  Do we really trust the Chiefs in a big spot?

Pittsburgh Steelers +105 at Kansas Cit (Bet $100 to win $105)
A really, really close game.  In fact at a couple of casinos the money line is minus for both teams.  If I am taking Pittsburgh getting only 1 1/2, I think they will win outright.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (45) UNDER
Lots of ball possession offense and the scoring drives will be long (unless Tyreek Hill breaks a return).  That means few points.  I'll take the under.


Last Week's Record:  5-7
Year-to-Date Record:  137-128-5
Playoff Record:  5-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($220)
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): ($220)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,780)

NFL Wild Card Roundtable

Pepster:  It is that time of year, ladies and gentlemen, where the best of the best football players in the world start the competition for Super Bowl Champion.  That's right, it's Wildcard Weekend, with four (almost) scintillating competitions that begin this afternoon.  Let's jump right it, and we will take the games in the order that they will be played.  First up:  Oakland and Houstson.

Sinickal:  Excuse me?  That is the first playoff game of the year?  Can we just fast forward to next week?

Hopps:  I probably won't even watch.

Pepster:  OK,I hear you.  So we don't start off with the most attractive of matchups, especially given the Brock Osweiler/Conner Cook quarterback competition.  Which sounds like something that should be said during training camp for third string.

Hopps:  This is the first time in the Super Bowl era that a quarterback will be making his first career start in the postseason.  Good luck Conner Cook, you are going to need it.

Sinickal:  The over/under on Cook completions should be 2.

Pepster:  That might be a little low, so I'll take that over, but the Texans did finish the season with the number one defense in terms of total yards (but 11th in points).  Good thing for them that they are a whopping 29th in total yards on offense (but they are T28th in points).

Hopps:  Speaking of Houston's defense, I predict that Michael Crabtree will get his chain snatched again.

Sinickal:  That is where we disagree.  Crabtree will be wearing a padlock around his neck.  That might slow him down a bit, though.

Pepster, Sinickal, Hopps (in unison):  Texans.

Pepster:  Let's turn to tonight's game in Seattle as the Seahawks  host the Detroit Lions.  Matthew Stafford has had by most standards, a helluva year, especially given the retirement of Calvin Johnson and virtually every running back on the team.

Sinickal:  Stafford will break his thumb on this throwing hand - because that's what the Lions do.

Hopps:  The Lions haven't won a playoff game since Barry Sanders.  BARRY SANDERS.

Pepster:  Well, both of those may be true, but this isn't the same Seahawks team as the previous few years.  They struggled early (boring close win [12-10] over the Dolphins in week 1 when the Dolphins started pre-retirement Arian Foster), they struggled late (losing at home to Arizona in week 16 and barely beating a despicably bad San Francisco team 25 - 23 in week 17).  They just haven't been the same since Earl Thomas went out.  Part of what makes the "Legion of Boom" great is all of them collectively, and Thomas is likely the best.

Sinickal and Hopps (in unison):  BUT IT'S THE LIONS!

Pepster:  I am going with Detroit.  Stafford throws for 330 and 3 touchdowns.

Sinckal and Hopps:  HA! HA! HA!

Sinickal:  Wait, you're serious?

Hopps:  Given me Seattle.

Sinickal:  Me too.  Good luck with that.

Pepster:  Hopefully tomorrow's games will be more enticing that the dreck we have tonight.  Let's go to the early game where the Miami Dolphins are visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Steelers are a 10 point favorite.  Now, honestly, this I do not understand.  The Dolphins defeated the Steelers earlier this season - albeit at home - after knocking Ben Roethlisberger out of the game.  Their defense bottled up Le'Veon Bell nicely, who only gained 53 yards rushing (+55 yards receiving).  Should this really be a 10 point spread.

Sinickal:  Well, Matt Moore is pretty nice as far as backup quarterbacks go, but I think Ryan Tannehill gets into this game for at least one snap just so he can say he played in a playoff game.  Come to think of it, so will Brock Osweiler!

Hopps:  Not that I am a big Tom Savage fan, but GOOD GOD - BROCK OSWEILER.

Pepster:  Anyway - let's get back to the Dolphins/Steelers game.

Sinickal:  Pittsburgh, easy.

Hopps:  I concur.

Pepster:  It's unanimous.  Steelers.  Primarily because I do not want to see the Dolphins play at New England next week.  Last game, New York Giants at 11-5 travel to the higher seeded Green Bay Packers at 10-6.  Predictions?

Sinickal:  Aaron Rodgers is pushed out at the sideline for a first down in the second quarter next to Eli Manning, where the two set into a heated squabble over who is the greatest playoff QB ever. Strangely missing from that conversation is Joe Montana.

Hopps:  Well, the last two times the Giants went to Green Bay they went on to win a Super Bowl.  Eli has a much better post season record in Green Bay than Aaron Rodgers.

Pepster:  Guys, are we really getting into the minutiae of which quarterback is better in one specific stadium?

Sinickal:  I didn't mean for us to get into that discussion, I just think Eli and Aaron will.

Hopps:  I will get into any argument I want.

Pepster:  Well, I will never give any credit to Aaron Rodgers, so to try to seem neutral, I will compliment Green Bay's left tackle, David Bakhtiari who, with all apologies to Tyron Smith, was the best left tackle in football this year.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd!

Pepster:  No, that is Baltimore Ravens guard John Urschel, who while playing in the NFL just started pursuing his Ph.D. in Mathematics at M.I.T., was named to Forbes "30 under 30" list in the field of science, has had six peer reviewed mathematics papers (with 3 more ready for review), and he specializes in spectral graph theory, numerical linear algebra and machine learning.

Sinickal:  I was talking about you!

Hopps:  Well, you both have points there.

Pepster:  So, who is going to win?

Hopps:  Giants.

Sinickal:  Packers.

Pepster:  Green Bay has gone through Eddie Lacy, James Starks, Knile Davis, John Kuhn, Christine Michael at Running Back, and even Offensive Coordinator Edgar Bennett thought about coming out of retirement before they settled on Tight End Ty Montgomery as their go-to tailback.  They still have a better rushing attack then the Giants.  Packers.

Any last thoughts

Sinickal:  Can we just get to next week?

Hopps:  So you can watch my Cowboys?

Sinickal:  Dope.

Pepster:  See everyone here next week.

Picks of the Week

We are finally at week 17 of what has been an eventful, interesting, and costly NFL Season.  Since we really have no idea who is really going to be playing this week, I should just take this week off, but after three great weeks in a row, I will try to make it four.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
My reverse curse of hopefully ending up with DeShaun Watson seems to be working.  A loss here cements the third pick in the draft, unless the 49ers win their second in a row and then the Bears will pick second!

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens
I have no idea who is going to show up in this game, but I am taking the Bengals because they are at home, and more importantly, I feel that the Ravens will be flat after missing out on the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay still has a shot at the playoffs if:  (1) Tampa wins over Carolina; (2) Detroit beats Green Bay; (3) Tennessee defeats Houston; (4) Indianapolis conquers Jacksonville; (5) Dallas knocks off Philadelphia; (6) San Francisco overcomes Seattle; and (7) New York (Giants) tie Washington.  So you are saying there's a chance.  Well, at least it starts here.

Houston Texans +3 at Tennessee Titans
Tom Savage and Matt Cassell in an epic battle of mediocrity.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 at Indianapolis Colts
Allen Robinson finally made an appearance last week.  Leave it to the Jaguars to play hard for their coach in the two games AFTER he was fired.

Miami Dolphins +7 1/2 v. New England Patriots
New England still has to win (or lose and have help) to maintain home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  That makes this game one of the more interesting ones on the weekend.  The textbook on how to beat Brady is to put pressure on him from the middle - enter Ndamukong Suh - and hit him/sack him - enter Cameron Wake.

New York Jets + 3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
The Jets can't even effectively bench their starting quarterback, as Ryan Fitzpatrick is again starting.  Look for him to fling it around the field in search of a new team/contract for next year.  Oh yeah, plus E.J. Manual.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 v. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys have absolutely nothing to play for, and the story is that Dak Prescott, Tony Romo AND Mark Sanchez will all play today.  Philly wins big.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
No two game winning streak for the Browns.  The Steelers are just too much, even if they play backups.

New Orleans Saints +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
This could end up being a shootout.  With just a couple of more wins, Drew Brees would likely be the leading MVP candidate.

Washington Racists -7 1/2 v. New York Giants
The Giants have nothing to play for, whereas the Racists still have the opportunity to make the playoffs with a win and the Detroit/Green Bay game finishing in anything other than a tie.  (There is a scenario with Washington ties, Detroit beats Green Bay and Carolina defeats Tampa, but what are the odds that Washington finishes the season with two ties?)

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
We do not know what we will be getting with Matt McGloin (or as was told to him at Penn State "Pat My Groin").  We do know that the Broncos will be fired up to win one for Gary Kubiak, who is rumored to be retiring due to health issues.

Los Angeles Rams +7 v. Arizona Cardinals
A likely snoozer, but the Rams defense - behind the stellar play of Aaron Donald - will likely keep this one close.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
The Chiefs can still win the division, and possibly have home-field advantage.  That is something to play for as the Chiefs have one of the best home field crowds in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers +11 v. Seattle Seahawks
Only because Seattle's mind likely won't be in this game for the entirety.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
The biggest, most important, most anticipated game of the day occurs in the evening, where the winner makes the playoffs and likely knocks the loser out of the playoffs.  In this type of scenario, would YOU bet against Aaron Rodgers?  I wouldn't.

Big Bet
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
No two game winning streak for the Browns.  The Steelers are just too much, even if they play backups.  It's Cleveland, and the point spread seems small.

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  123-114-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $490
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,525)

Catch Me If You Can

This is going to be a quick entry, as we are fast approaching kickoff, so I will say the Pittsburgh Steelers win, and fairly decisively. They definitely cover the spread. I have already read Sinickal's predictions, and I concur wholeheartedly. I think Willie Parker has a great game with lots of yards, and possibly multiple touchdowns. The Steelers defense closes out. Game Over.

Games are usually that simple. You can overthink predictions, and this is why the Super Bowl should be held the week after the conference championship games. However, if most people overthink the game, and that affects the spread in my favor so be it.

Most prognosticators seem to be caught up in the whole Arizona hype/bandwagon. On this front, I was watching a very underrated flick this morning, Catch Me If You Can, in which Tom Hanks is trying to catch a criminal named Frank Abagnale played by Leonardo DiCaprio. I bring this up simply for one quote. After you read Sinickal's last post, you would hate to be caught up in a dilemma that the young Frank Abagnale encounters. He is approached in the hospital by a senior doctor while pretending himself to be an actual doctor. Abagnale's simple response; "I should have concurred. Don't be Frank Abagnale. I concur - Steelers.