Picks of the Week - NFL Week 17

 

I followed up my worst week of the year with ...  MY ABSOLUTE BEST.  Seriously, a dream week.  Not only did I go 12-4 all while correctly picking my Big Bet, I also went 15-1 in my confidence pick league, losing only the Detroit Lions pick, who succumbed to the Pittsburgh Steelers on one of the more unusual endings you will ever see.  Correctly ruled by the officiating crew, too - Damnit!)

Three Christmas games tomorrow, with more Saturday/Sunday/Monday action to follow!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Washington Commanders +7 v. Dallas Cowboys

By now, this should be a familiar refrain:  "Home Team on a Short Week!"  But, we get to couple this one with another:  "Home Underdog in an Intra-Divisional Game!"  And, although the Commanders have been underwhelming this year, they played Philly close for a while last week, and Dallas' 30th-ranked defense more than makes up for its 2nd-ranked offense.

Minnesota Vikings +7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I do not want to make this pick.  AT ALL!  I feel compelled because each of the Thursday games the home team is an intra-divisional underdog.  So, I have to pick them all because I am statistically likely to win at least two of the three, no matter what, and me trying to cherry-pick which home team won't cover leads to more mistakes.  But, if I did, this would be THAT game.

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I seriously contemplated taking the Texans and their hot streak (won 7 in a row).  But, this is a short week for the Texans, they narrowly defeated the Raiders last week, and despite the strength of its defense (1st overall; 1st scoring; 4th in Passing and Rushing), the Chargers are no slouches on that side of the ball themselves (2nd overall; 6th passing, 8th scoring; 10th rushing).  So, I will take the home team, who I happen to believe is the best team in the AFC.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Baltimore Ravens

This is an absolute must-win for the Ravens, and nothing about them losing 3 of their last 4 games says they can win.  The Packers need a win to relieve pressure for next week's contest, and they are home during a short week.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Nothing can right a pirate ship heading in the wrong direction quite like a game against the Dolphins.

New York Jets +13 1/2 v. New England Patriots

The Patriots are better, and will win, but they will also underestimate the Jets and New York back-door covers.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cleveland Browns

Intra-divisional game with a home underdog, but I will give the points since I have been underestimating the Steelers the entire second half of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett has actually had a good season.  The Cardinals, however, have not.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Saints are on a 3-game winning streak, and will keep it up in Nashville.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Another home intra-divisional underdog.  Yes, the Colts got smoked by the 49ers, but the offense moved the ball and scored often.  It is a short week, so I don't like that, but I have to disobey one gambling rule, so I'll take the Colts to keep it close.

Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window, and like a lot of teams recently, probably underestimating the Panthers.

New York Giants -1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders stink, and without Brock Bowers, they stink even more!

Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

This just means more to the Bills, and I am operating under the assumption that Josh Allen will be playing.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Chicago Bears

Although it is a short week for San Francisco, it is the late Sunday game.  And, if they play anything close to how they did against the Colts, it will be hard for anyone to beat them the remainder of the year.

Los Angeles Rams -8 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anyone even care about this game?  The Falcons probably don't.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

This is A LOT of points.  And, Denver isn't a team that ordinarily blows teams away.  KC can keep it under two touchdowns!

Last Week Record: 12-4

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 116-122-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 5-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $910

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,985) 

Picks of the Week

Another winning week to cut into the big deficit that hit me a few weeks ago.  Super short week with two Christmas Day games, so I have no idea what is going to happen this week.  Let's see how it goes.  

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This seems like a really close game, especially given the short week and George Pickens coming back, but I think I have learned not to bet against Kansas City.

Baltimore Ravens -6 at Houston Texans

Houston deflated when Tank Dell was injured.  Wednesday is too short of a time frame for the team to get themselves out of that funk.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Chicago keeps it close at home on a short week; Caleb throws for over 300 yards to put himself in line to break the season-season record for the Bears.

New England Patriots +4 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Short week, west coast team flying east and playing in the 1:00 slot - ON A SHORT WEEK.  New England played Buffalo close last week as well, so they might be on a roll.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

If there is a defense that Bo Nix needs to rebound against, it is Cincinnati's, but the Burrow-Chase combination has been ridiculous this year, and I expect that to continue, especially on a short week.

Los Angeles Rams -6 v. Arizona Cardinals

It is time for Arizona to start examining the Kyler Murray era.

Dallas Cowboys +9 at Philadelphia Eagles

Yes Dallas is 7-8 and Philadelphia is 12-3, but Dallas has been playing much, MUCH better lately, winning 4 of its last 5.  And, with this being a divisional game, I did not expect the spread to be THIS high.  Philadelphia should still win, but 9 points is too much.  I'll take them.

New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills

Much like the above Dallas-Philadelphia game, this spread is way too high, especially given Buffalo's recent streak:  W+3, W+6, Loss.  I'll take the points, even though I expect a Buffalo win.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 at New Orleans Saints

Brock Bowers might be the only thing to watch in this game; unless you are just rooting for Cameron Jordan in his 58th season for the Saints.  New Orleans just got drubbed on Monday night, so it is a short week for them.

Indianapolis Colts -8 at New York Giants

The Giants gave up on this season a long time ago.

Carolina Panthers +8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really wanted to pick Tampa Bay here, given that they are at home, but they beat Carolina a few weeks ago by only 3, and the Panthers have been in close battles lately:  W+6; L-16; L-6, L-3, L-3 (Kansas City), L-3, W+1, so all signs point to this being a close game.

Tennessee Titans -1 at. Jacksonville Jaguars

Mac Jones has actually been moving this team a bit in relief of Trevor Lawrence, but Mason Rudolph is a more steadying hand for the Titans than Will Levis was.  Plus, Tennessee has the number 1 defense in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -3 at Cleveland Browns

Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his 30.1 quarterback rating.

So, this spread has dropped to -3 from -6 1/2, in large part because Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has been ruled out.  So, we now have an immortal qb matchup - Tyler Huntley versus Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  And, Thompson-Robinson still has a 30.1 quarterback rating.

Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Green Bay Packers

In what is essentially a pick 'em, I will take the home team because I have no idea who is going to win this game.

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Last week's game was a big pick-me-up for this Commanders offense, which they continue this week against the 21st ranked passing defense and the 19th ranked scoring defense.  Plus, let's give some love to the Commanders and their 9th ranked total defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

This game almost seems unfair, especially since we never know who will be playing for San Francisco from one week to the next.  Either way, Detroit rolls.

Big Bets:

Carolina Panthers +8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really wanted to pick Tampa Bay here, given that they are at home, but they beat Carolina a few weeks ago by only 3, and the Panthers have been in close battles lately:  W+6; L-16; L-6, L-3, L-3 (Kansas City), L-3, W+1, so all signs point to this being a close game.

Carolina was good to me for the big bet last week, so I will roll with them again for a second week in a row.

I had so many to choose from, Miami (road favorite), Las Vegas (same thing), Dallas, but rolling with the Panthers.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  118-112-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-7

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $390

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($325)

Picks of the Week

 

Last week's results were almost the exact opposite as the previous week.  Two weeks ago with 5 to 10 munutes left in the 1:00 games I was basically 9-1, and with a lot of scores changing the outcome in the early games, I lost money.  This week at the 1:00 juncture with a quarter left, I was 1-2, and losing 5 of 6 games.  Thank god for the turnaround as a few games switched, and a strong finish in the p.m. games and on Monday led to a winning record.  Can you say STREAK?!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns -7 v. New York Jets

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!  Long live Joe Flacco!  I bet the Jets wish they had a veteran like him!

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I initially picked Detroit, and I really, really want to take Detroit here - especially at this number - but this game is also a short week game, so I changed my mind.  Both of these teams are solid to great on both sides of the ball.  The slightest kink in each's armor:  Detroit is 23rd in passing defense going against Dallas' 6th ranked pass offense; Dallas in 19th in rushing defense going against Detroit's 3rd ranked run game.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

This Chicago Bears team is a couple of mismanaged end-of-game coaching from having won 7-in-a row.  I am not saying the deserved to win all of those games, nor would they have if not for poor coaching, but just saying this team is way closer than people think.  If they manage Carolina's first overall pick well, i.e. trading back even 5 to 9 spots for an appropriate package (or even better, trading to 2 or 3, then trading back again!), and they select well in this year's draft (plus extra firsts in 2025 and 2026), they could be set for awhile!

Miami Dolphins +3 at Baltimore Ravens

Both teams played great against good opponents last week, Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore dismantling San Francisco.  I feel that if one of the teams is going to suffer a letdown this week it might be the Ravens, but only because they are playing on a short week, whereas the Dolphins have their regular 7-days between games.  So, this paragraph is what I wrote on Saturday, when I first published this week's picks.  But, my actual pick, when thinking about this and deciding Miami just might be too banged up to deal with Baltimore, my official pick is ...

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

So, I lost an extra half-point by changing my mind, but so be it.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans

Houston, fighting for a playoff spot - and evening a divisional championship - have C.J. Stroud back!

New England +14 at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo wins this game, but most of their games have been close.  New England's last few games have been (L7, L10, W3, L6, L3, L4, L4, L3) in the last eight weeks.  This game should be easily within 2 touchdowns.

New York Giants +6 v. Los Angeles Rams

I am torn between two betting rules here:  The Rams are a west coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot (disadvantge) versus the Giants who are playing on a short week (disadvantage).  I will take the Giants because they are getting points, and because Tyrod Taylor is the professional quarterback that can at least keep them settled.

Washington Commanders +13 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Is it bad that I want to select Washington here?  San Francisco is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot AND they are playing on a short week.  I suppose I can just hope Washington can keep it close AND they have been playing much better when Jacoby Brissett has been behind center, which he will do from the start Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles -12 v. Arizona Cardinals

So Philadelphia is playing on a short week, but sometimes a short-week team covers.  This week it will be Philadelphia, as Arizona is hoping for Carolina's third loss to aid them in their quest for the first overall pick, and the subsequent trade haul it could garner from team's that need a QB.  See Bears, Chicago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

Carolina Panthers +4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is missing his first NFL game due to an injury, and although C.J. Beatherd is a legitimate NFL backup and won't panic in the pocket, the Panthers have been playing well, losing by 3 to the Packers last week, defeating the Falcons the week prior, and losing to the Buccaneers by 3 two weeks before that.  Closer than it should be, and Carolina at least covers, if not wins outright.

Indianapolis Colts -4 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Antonio Pearce has the Raiders playing inspired football lately, but they suffer from the double-whammy of traveling to the Eastern time zone to play in the 1:00 time slot AND they are on a short week.  That might just be too much to overcome.  Gardner Minshew is also hunting for the AFC South title.  Sorry, I just made every Jaguar fan cringe!

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Too bad for Rudolp (Mason) that Christmas is over.  We can all go back to mocking him and not letting him play reindeer games.  (Or at least I hope!)

Las Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Dysfunction, dysfunction, dysfunction - and this has nothing to do with Jarret Stidham.  Even if some of the roster are anti-Russell Wilson, they are not anti-administration screwing with players and the players' money.  I am not talking about benching him for 2 games to protect an off-season trade from injury; I am talking about the revelation that the Broncos came to Wilson after the Broncos defeated the Chiefs and told him to renegotiate his contract downward or he would be benched BACK THEN!

Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know that Joe Burrow and most likely J'Marr Chase are not playing.  But, Jake Browning has been playing well (a 98.5 rating compared to Patrick Mahomes' 91.7), and the Chiefs have not been playing that well.  Plus, they are on a short week.  I'll take almost a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Green Bay Packers

A one-point spread in what is basically a playoff elimination game for the loser of this divisional rivalry.  Lots to digest in this game, as Jaren Hall will be making the start over Nick Mullens, who moved the ball well, but just turned it over too much.  Hall was 8/10 for 101 yards in his first game this year, so there is potentail, especially given his talented skill position players, including Justin Jefferson and Ty Chandler.  Chandler could feast against the NFL's 30th ranked run defense.  And speaking of the Packers' defense, star cornerback Jaire Alexander is suspended and will not dress for talking the field as a captain last week when he was not a captain, and then electing to defend instead of defer when Green Bay won the toss.  He was lucky that the coaching staff had previously expressed to the officials they would defer if they won the toss, so the officials bailed out Alexander, otherwise we could have seen a game where Carolina received the ball with the opening kickoff IN BOTH HALVES!

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

I am riding with team Baker on this one.  I do like Houston, New England, and Chicago here, but I am taking Tampa Bay.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  128-98-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $185

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,585