Last week was brutal. Just horrible. So bad that I have not yet even performed the calculations. Will do that at the end of this post, but I will be significantly down this year, in record and money. Well, gotta get back up with some winning weeks, and Thursday night was a great start!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. Washington Commanders
Home team, short week. Simple, simple choice, especially as the home team is really starting to put their team together.
Chicago Bears +5 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
I think Green Bay will win this. This pick is not being made with my heart. Love has been very inconsistent this year, and I hate taking road intradivisional favorites.
Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at New York Jets
The Jets are 25th against the rush on defense. I expect to see a lot of Jonathan Taylor AND Anthony Richardson - with his legs. And given that performance last week against the Cardinals, this team may be giving up on Aaron Rodgers.
Baltimore Ravens -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I know I said I hate road intradivisional favorites - and I do - but that doesn't mean that I won't pick them from time-to-time. The Steelers have beaten the Ravens 10 straight times, however, Derrick Henry wasn't the running back in any of those games.
Minnesota Vikings -6 at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee's defense doesn't make sense; they are 1st in total defense and pass defense; but they are 29th in scoring defense. This may be a close game until late, but I expect a Vikings win by about 10.
New Orleans Saints +1 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
I don't want to bet this game, I don't want to watch this game, and I don't want anything to do with this game. Gimme the points.
Jacksonville Jaguars +12 at Detroit Lions
The Lions are the best team in football the way they are playing. But, the Jaguars last three games (all losses) have been by 5 to the Vikings, 5 to the Eagles, and 3 to the Packers. Close losses to really, really good teams.
Las Vegas Raiders +7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Two competing betting rules: Bet against the Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 slot, and don't bet a team playing on a short week. Since both of these are happening; I am taking the points, especially since it is over a touchdown.
New England Patriots +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
In almost every circumstance I would be betting the Rams here, as they have been playing much better - despite last week's loss to the Miami Dolphins - since Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have returned. They have won 3 of their last 4, incouding wins over the Seahawks and Vikings. But, they are on a short week having played Monday night, and they are playing near Boston in the 1:00 time slot.
Atlanta Falcons +2 at Denver Broncos
Strength on strength as Atlanta's offense (5th in passing, 5th overall) against Denver's defense (4th in scoring, 6th overall, 7th rushing), and the other side of the ball for both team's is mediocre. The Falcons need this game after falling to the Saints last week.
San Francisco 49ers -6 v. Seattle Seahawks
This could be a really exciting game as the number 7 total offense (1st passing) in Seattle will be playing the number 2 offense (2nd passing, 4th rushing, 7th scoring) in San Fracnico. The diference, the 49ers have the 5th best total defense and the Seahawks have the 26th. And, Christian McCaffrey has a game under his belt.
Buffalo Bills -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
This is the game to watch to this week. And my selection is more feel than research. Buffalo just seems to be playing better, despite Kansas City being undefeated.
Los Angeles Chargers -1 v. Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers are the most difficult team upon which to score, giving up only 13.1 piints per game, and they have a very balanced defense (9th against the run, and the pass, for 8th overall). Ladd McConkey seems to be emerging as a pass-catching weapon, Justin Herbert hasn't really broken out yet this year. Cincinnati scores (5th in the league) mainly because of their passing (4th in the NFL), but their defense is below average. The Chargers at home in a prime time game.
Houston Texans -7 at Dallas Cowboys
It will take a lot, AND I MEAN A LOT, to pick the Cowboys going forward. But, for starters, Dallas is 31st in the league in rushing AND rush defense. Not a good combo.
Big Bet:
Jacksonville Jaguars +14 at Detroit Lions
The Lions are the best team in football the way they are playing. But, the Jaguars last three games (all losses) have been by 5 to the Vikings, 5 to the Eagles, and 3 to the Packers. Close losses to really, really good teams.
Fourteen points is a lot of points in the NFL, especially when a team receiving the points has been playing close games. Yes, I realize that Mac Jones is the quarterback for Jacksonville, but I have been seeing this year that maybe, just maybe, Trevor Lawrence isn't that good?
Record
Last Week's Record: 4-10
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 69-76-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($865)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,220)
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