Picks of the Week - NFL Week 5

This season has been abysmal.  I am just going to go ahead and blame all of the injuries, but truly it is that I have not been paying as much attention as I need to do.  In fact, I am in a confidence league and I am also doing worse than I have ever picked in that league too.  Got to turn it around, so going to really make sure I give it my all this week.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Ordinarily this spread would be much closer, as the NFL's 4th-ranked offense (Rams) challenges the 3rd-ranked defense (49ers).  But, San Francisco is just missing too many players, and it is a short week.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 against Minnesota Vikings (in London)

The jet lag for the Browns could really be a problem, as Minnesota played in Dublin last week.  But, Cleveland has the number 1 total defense in the NFL (4th against the pass and 1st against the rush), Quinshon Judkins could feast on the 25ht-ranked run defense, and maybe they get a boost from Dillon Gabriel's first start, much as the Giants did with Dart's first start last week.

Dallas Cowboys +1 at New York Jets

The Jets looked putrid last week at the Dolphins, and that was on Monday night, making this a short week for the Jets.  Cowboys have the 5th highest scoring offense, and the best passing and total offense in the NFL.  Now, there are a lot of injuries for the Cowboys, so this line has moved from -2 1/2 to +1.  I'll take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Philadelphia put together its best performance of the season last week against Tampa Bay, and they get the Broncos coming off a late Monday night game.  Denver's offense is starting to click, but this is going to be a tough combo of playing the Eagles and off a short week, so I'll give the points.

Houston Texans -1 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Nothing about this pick makes any sense, I know.  Lamar Jackson is doubtful at this time, so Cooper Rush will likely get the start.  Rush has had some quality starts in the NFL, so he won't be rattled - even though Houston's defense - especially its pass rush - can be scary.  But, the Ravens NEED this win in order to keep moving toward the playoffs and desperate teams sometimes play desperately.  And that is easy to do when you have Derrick Henry, who should get 25 touches this game.   But then, I see that the worst defense in the NFL will now be missing Kyle Hamilton, so I switched my pick.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

So the Jaxson Dart start was amazing last week - in terms of the Giants win.  But, he didn't play that great (he played fine, great for a first start).  But the injuries continue to mount as the Giants lost Malik Nabers for the season.  Of more concern should be the 29th-ranked rush defense in trying to stop Alvin Kamara, who is likely auditioning for a trade with a playoff-contender.

Las Vegas Raiders +6 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

This might be the game where the Colts come back down to earth, unless everybody was completely wrong about Daniel Jones and it was the team - and not him - that was the problem in New York.  Colts may very well score enough points to win this game (they are 4th in scoring offense), but the Raiders may be learning how to use Ashton Jeanty enough to keep this under a touchdown.

Carolina Panthers + 1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins are on a short week, and lost Tyreek Hill for the season (although they may have discovered Malik Washington as an actual offensive weapon).  Carolina is bad, but they actually give up less points than the Dolphins on the season.  If only they could find a QB or a RB.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

I am taking the Buccaneers on the chance that Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving actually play (which is NOT a given).  But that being said, Teddy Bridgewater is a solid back-up and Richaad White has run well in his opportunities so far this year.  I think with more than a field goal, this is a solid pick regardless of Mayfield and Irving's status.

Arizona Cardinals -7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

So Arizona is without its top two backs in James Conner and Trey Benson.  Won't matter as this Titans team is giving up 30 points per game and is last in the NFL in scoring.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Chargers are REALLY good this year.  Their defense is 4th in Total Defense and 4th in Scoring Defense and the offense is 7th in Total Offense (5th in Passing Offense).  Jayden Daniels returns, and that should be a spark for the Commanders, but they just aren't going to have enough to win this on the road.

Detroit Lions -10 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were drubbed by the Broncos on Monday night, and although double digits are a lot of points to give up in the NFL, this is a short week for Cincinnati.  Detroit has scored the most points in the NFL.

New England Patriots +7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills should win this game, especially with the 2nd-ranked Total Offense and Scoring Offense in the NFL.  But, Drake Maye is legitimate, and perhaps Trayveon Henderson can live up to some of h is preseason hype against the 31st ranked rushing defense.  Buffalo goes to 5-0, but the Patriots keep it close.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense.  But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense.  KC cruises.

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense.  But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense.  KC cruises.

This goes against every fiber of my being picking a team on the road giving up points as my Big Bet, but that thumping of the Ravens last week (and yes, I get it a lot of Ravens went down with injuries) showed me something, and that something coincided with the return of Xavier Worthy and Chris Jones.

Last Week Record:  7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  28-36

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-3

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($455)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,505) 

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LIX

Super Bowl Sunday is here - and it's about time that this travesty of a football season - gambling-wise anyway - is coming to an end.  That doesn't mean that there isn't some opportunity to cut into my huge losses for the year.  Hopefully we can find some really good prop bets to be successful, since I don't have any idea of what is going to happen in the game.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 versus Philadelphia Eagles

This line is really close, and has actually moved in Philadelphia's favor since it opened as Kansas City -1 1/2.  Two tough teams that have been among the best in the NFL for the entire year.  In fact, this seems like the year to really bet on Philadelphia.  First of all, these two teams met two years ago, with Kansas City winning 38-35, scoring near the end after what some people consider a controversial pass-interference penalty.  [Ed. Note = it was totally pass interference.]  This Philadelphia team is much, much better with Saquon Barkley running the ball and Jalen Carter becoming a dominant force on the interior defensive line.  But, and this is a really big butt, Kansas City is Kansas City, despite seemingly having dropped off performance-wise this year.  It must be nice to go 15-2 during a "down" season.  First of all, they have Patrick Mahomes.  As was shared with me earlier today about Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc. "Everybody better than Mahomes til it's time to be better than Mahomes."  Second, the Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid.  And Reid, is among the best overall, and there are none better with two weeks to prepare.  Reid's teams are 32-7 with two weeks to prepare for a game.  32-7!!!  That is astronomical!!!

Kansas City Chiefs -118 versus Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $118 to win $100)

This would be a perfect hedge, except for one thing, the Eagles are only even money.  That isn't enough to make a difference on the season, so if I think KC is going to win at -1, then I have to take them for the moneyline.  Plus, two more stats involving rematches in the Super Bowl.  This is the fifth rematch between coaches (Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni).  In all 4 previous coaching rematches, the previous winning coach won the subsequent Super Bowl.  This is also the fourth rematch between quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts).  In each of the three previous rematches, the initial winning quarterback won the rematch.

Kansas City Chiefs versus Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48 1/2

I honestly thought that I was going to select the under up until the moment I just made my pick given that Kansas City is 4th in scoring defense and Philadelphia is 2nd.  But, do we really think that these two teams are going to average 24 points each or less?  I do not.  If both these teams reach their scoring averages for the season, they hit the over.

Now, on to the props!!!

Jon Batiste National Anthem OVER 120 1/2 seconds

Only 14 performances of the National Anthem have lasted two minutes or longer since 1990 (less than half), but 7 of the last 11 have lasted that long.  And with Batiste not only singing the national anthem, but likely also playing the piano accompaniment, I feel strong that this could go over, especially if he draws out "home of the brave". 

Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

If Philly gets into a goal line situation, the Tush Push, or Brotherly Shove will almost certainly be succseeful.

Travis Kelce OVER 60.5 yars -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Kelce has hit this number in 14 of 15 career playoff games since 2020.

Dallas Goedert/Xavier Worthy 50/50 Parlay +165 (Bet $100 to win $165)

This bet is for both players to gain more than 50 receiving yards.

Dallas Goedert Over 4 1/2 receipts -137 (Bet $137 to win $100)

Kansas City averages giving up 6 receiptions per game to tight ends.

Xavier Worthy Any Time Touchdown +165 (Bet $100 to win $165)

Given Worthy's importance to this offense, and it seems that Mahomes has been looking for Worthy more and more.

Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 2 1/2 +120 (Bet $100 to win $120)

These teams take a lot of chances.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 47 1/2 -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)

Harrison Butker has made three of the eleven field goals over 49 yards in Super Bowl history.

Total Sacks Under 5 1/2 -145 (Bet $145 to win $100)

Two very mobile and poised quarterbacks who are also smart enough to throw the ball away.  They combined for two sacks just two years ago.

DeAndre Hopkins OVER 1 1/2 receptions +105 (Bet $100 to win $105)

It just feels like Kansas City has been waiting for him to break out.  What better time than the Super Bowl.

Noah Gray OVER 11 1/2 receiving yards -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Gray averages 10.9 yards per catch, so two catches and this should be easy.

Noah Gray Any Time Touchdown +500 (Bet $100 to win $500)

A good percentage of Gray's targets this year came inside the 20-yard line, and his 5 TDs and great hands make him a favorite target of Mahomes near the endzone.

Big Bets:

Kansas City Chiefs -1 versus Philadelphia Eagles

This line is really close, and has actually moved in Philadelphia's favor since it opened as Kansas City -1 1/2.  Two tough teams that have been among the best in the NFL for the entire year.  In fact, this seems like the year to really bet on Philadelphia.  First of all, these two teams met two years ago, with Kansas City winning 38-35, scoring near the end after what some people consider a controversial pass-interference penalty.  [Ed. Note = it was totally pass interference.]  This Philadelphia team is much, much better with Saquon Barkley running the ball and Jalen Carter becoming a dominant force on the interior defensive line.  But, and this is a really big butt, Kansas City is Kansas City, despite seemingly having dropped off performance-wise this year.  It must be nice to go 15-2 during a "down" season.  First of all, they have Patrick Mahomes.  As was shared with me earlier today about Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc. "Everybody better than Mahomes til it's time to be better than Mahomes."  Second, the Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid.  And Reid, is among the best overall, and there are none better with two weeks to prepare.  Reid's teams are 32-7 with two weeks to prepare for a game.  32-7!!!  That is astronomical!!!

Kansas City Chiefs versus Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48 1/2

I honestly thought that I was going to select the under up until the moment I just made my pick given that Kansas City is 4th in scoring defense and Philadelphia is 2nd.  But, do we really think that these two teams are going to average 24 points each or less?  I do not.  If both these teams reach their scoring averages for the season, they hit the over.

Jon Batiste National Anthem OVER 120 1/2 seconds

Only 14 performances of the National Anthem have lasted two minutes or longer since 1990 (less than half), but 7 of the last 11 have lasted that long.  And with Batiste not only singing the national anthem, but likely also playing the piano accompaniment, I feel strong that this could go over, especially if he draws out "home of the brave". 

Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

If Philly gets into a goal line situation, the Tush Push, or Brotherly Shove will almost certainly be succseeful.

Record

Last Week's Record:  2-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  151-146-11

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-13

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($405)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,907.65)

Picks of the Week

So it only took until Week 2 for me to have my first horrendous week.  Thank goodness for the Big Bet!  But, I am not alone, as tons of people worldwide suffered last week.  If you are in a Survivor Pool, odds are, you are out.  Something like 25% of all people in Survivor Pools hosted by known and available sites (like ESPN, CBS, etc.) remain after two weeks.  That is ridiculous, and that is just picking winners, not even accounting for the spread.  Let's see if we can have a bounce back week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +6 1/2 at New York Jets

I had no allusions that the Patriots would win this game, but the Jets had looked underwhelming, at best, in the first two weeks, to the point where I was wondering if they might just be overrated.  They handled their business.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

They have to start playing offense at some point, right?  And, if there was any time to try to limit the pressure on Caleb Williams and run the ball, it would be this week against the team last in the NFL in rushing defense, giving up 237 yards per game so far, and, with star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner out for the game.  Caleb Williams also throws his first touchdown pass today, and the Bears defense remains at a high level.  Anthony Richardson can make big plays with his arm and legs, but he is also erratic with his arm, and this Bears secondary is no joke.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 v. Denver Broncos

I know the Broncos are rocking with a rookie quarterback and they will experience growing pains, but they have no identity on offense.  Their defense has been pretty stout to start the season, but one of those games was against the Steelers.  Baker Mayfield is playing at a high, high level, and the Bucs will score against Denver.

Houston Texans -2 at Minnesota Vikings

This is an incredibly difficult line, as both teams are playing well to start the season.  Sam Darnold is turning out better than almost everyone thought so far, but Houston's defense is imporved to an elite level like its offense.  I don't like giving up points on the road, but I will here.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This game is also difficult to pick, but for much different reasons, primarily that Justin Herbert is a game-time decision, and the report from Adam Shefter just now is that we still don't know if he will play, and won't know until the Chargers take the field.  So, I just have to take a deep breath, block out all of the noise, and realize that the betting rules say to take the east coast home team against a Pacific time zone team in the 1:00 game slot anyway, so I am .

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

My initial thought was to take the points and the Eagles, given that the Eagles must be so angry at how their Monday Night game against the Falcons ended.  Then I realized that ... the Eagles played Monday night!!!  This is a short week.  This is a great time to pick the resurrected career of Derek Carr!

Green Bay Packers +3 at Tennessee Titans

Green Bay bounced back from their Week 1 loss to the Eagles with a Week 2 win against the Colts, and I am not sure what either of those mean.  What I am sure of is that Tennessee lost to both the Bears and the Jets, and they are giving points today.  Green Bay controls the clock, and the game, and probably wins outright.

Cleveland Browns -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Both offenses are BAD!  New York's defense is BAD!  Cleveland's defense is meh.  I feel like this should be a lower line, but I am going to give the points anyway, because I just have a feeling that this Giants team is going backwards, fast.

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Miami Dolphins2

The Dolphins defense is legitmiate, and defense always travels.  The problem is that an offense led by Skylar Thompson probably doesn't - even with weapons like Devon Achane and Tyreek Hill.  Seattle is also out Kenneth Walker, but relying on Geno Smith is much easier to do than to rely on Skylar Thompson.

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Is it possible that the move from Bryce Young to the experienced Andy Dalton does allow the Panthers' offense to coalesce a bit around its established players and finally get Diontae Johnson involved, of course.  Am I betting that this time is not a total trainwreck?  No, I am not.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Dallas Cowboys

A team as talented as this Ravens squad cannot start the season 0-3 right?  RIGHT?

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

I am getting points for a home team in an intradivisional rivalry game where the visiting team is missing its starting running back, starting wide receiver, and starting tight end, all of whom are in the tops at their position in the league.  I still think that with Jordan Mason, the 49ers can win this game, but 6 1/2 points seems a bit much.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played fantastic against the Rams last week, and host Detroit who lost a game the team thinks it should have won last week against the Buccaneers.  Will that make Detroit more motivated?  Of course - I mean it has Dan Campbell.  That extra fire in the game is what compels this road win.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It might be soul-searching time for the Jaguars vis-a-vis a decision about what to do with this squad going forward.  Do they have talent?  Absolutely.  Is some of that talent as good as they are being paid?  Absolutely not.  And the team has put together a mish-mash of offensive talent that doesn't necessarily jell together.  But, you know what team knows exactly who they are?  The Buffalo Bills.

Washington Commanders +7 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati should win this game, and maybe even handily.  But, there are a lot of things that look good for Washington going forward ... Jayden Daniels looks like he belongs, he is due for his first passing touchdown, and McLaurin needs to break open for the rookie to have a true #1 target.  All of these happen late in the fourth quarter for a back-door cover!

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

I generally prefer home teams for my Big Bet, and I also prefer them receiving points, or it being a close point spread, but this bet is too good to pass up.  The Kansas City offense revolves around Patrick Mahomes, so the Isaiah Pacheco injury isn't going to hurt too much.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week.  I feel confident that the Chiefs can outgun Atlanta, even with their injuries.

Record

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  13-17-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($270)

 

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LVIII

It has been an excrutiating two weeks, listening to incels complain about Taylor Swift, listening to asinine interviewers in Vegas, and watching crazy video clips of things like Tua jumping on stage and playing guitar with Darius Rucker during Wagon Wheel! Seriously!!!  All I want is to get to what will likely be the most watched Super Bowl ever - and of course make some money.  Now, the two-week layoff was in no way too long for me to ruminate on the fact that I had a losing Championship Sunday, but today is another day - complete with prop bets!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Patrick Mahomes 10-1-1 record against the spread in the playoffs, and how four years ago he turned a 10 point deficit into an 11 point victory against San Francisco for his first Super Bowl win by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but this San Francisco defense is older and better, and Kansas City's offense is not as smooth as they have been in the past.  The most encouraging point for Kansas City - besides knowing how to win and having Patrick Mahomes - Kadarius Toney will not be playing!!!! 

San Francisco 49ers -120 over Kansas City Chiefs (Bet $120 to win $100)

This is simple math; if I think that San Francisco will win as a favorite, and when the money line is this close (Kansas City's best bet is +110), then I have to take San Francisco with the money line.  If this doesn't work out - then I have to hope the prop bets come in!

Kansas City Chiefs v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 47 1/2

The one thing we know about these teams is that they can score against anybody.  San Francisco was third in the NFL this year, and despite being 15th, Kansas City is, well, Kansas City.  Yes both of their defenses are stingy (SF 3rd in points allowed; KC 2nd), but do you honestly believe that 1 touchdown a quarter for each team isn't possible, especially when neither the players nor the coaches will be especially nervous?  Plus, it is way more interesting in betting the over than the under.

Now on to the prop bets!

Reba McIntyre National Anthem OVER 89.5 seconds (+102 - Bet $100 to win $102)

So, I almost always take the under under for the anthem, but the last two years three years that number has been at 2:00 or over.  For Reba, the number is under 1 1/2 minutes - which I have to take.

San Francisco 49ers OVER 6 1/2 players to catch a pass (Even Money)

So San Francisco likes to spread the ball around.  It feels like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and Kyle Jusczcyzk will all catch a pass, so this relies upon Elijah Mitchell - or somebody else - to catch one also.

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1 1/2 Rushing Attempts (+110 - Bet $100 to Win $110)

Speaking of Elijah Mitchell, he has a chance to make bettors some real money here.  Now of course the offense will be focused on Christian McCaffrey, but he is going to have some breaks - and Mitchell is more than solid.  Plus, he had 4 carries against Detroit.

Dre Greenlaw UNDER 8 1/2 tackles (-135 - Bet $135 to win $100)

Greenlaw only hit over 8 tackeles in 5 games this  year, but Kansas City will likely pass more than the teams San Francisco played this year.  So this seems like a good bet to me, especially with Fred Warner playing next to him.

George Karlaftis OVER .25 sacks (+110 - Bet $100 to win $110)

His motor never stops, and this prop bet gives us the opportunity to win with only 1/2 a sack.  Plus, Purdy seems more likely to be sacked than Mahomes (although Purdy is way more mobile than for which he is given credit.)

Longest Successful Field Goal - OVER 46 1/2 yards (+102 - Bet $100 to win $102)

Teams do not score a lot of points without hitting some lengthy field goals.  Harrison Butker would be my best bet to do this, but I wouldn't put it past either team.  With great defenses playing, you have to score points whenever you have the opportunity.

Nick Bosa OVER 1 1/2 solo tackles (-160 - Bet $160 to win $100)

Another player whose motor never stops, and he is 50% more motivated than George Karlaftis is.  (IYKYK).

Nick Bosa Over .25 sacks (-115 - Bet $115 to win $100)

Nick Bosa will get a sack.

Nick Bosa OVER .75 sacks (Even Money)

Nick Bosa will get a sack.  This concludes the Nick Bosa Section of our betting).

Patrick Mahomes -16 1/2 yards v. Brock Purdy

Purdy relies more on the running game than Mahomes will, I think, so I expect Mahomes will throw for a significant amount more yards than Purdy does.

San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 44 1/2 Pass completions

I expect both players to throw a lot, and be very accurate.

Deebo Samuel + 3 1/2 yards on his first carry

The Forty-Niners like to utilize Deebo in the rush game, and I think his first carry will net at least 4 yards.

Harvard alumnus wins the Super Bowl OVER 1/2

Not a real prop bet, but just a way for me to mention that each team has a Harvard alumnus on their squad - Truman Jones on Kansas City and Kyle Juszczyk on San Francisco.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Patrick Mahomes 10-1-1 record against the spread in the playoffs, and how four years ago he turned a 10 point deficit into an 11 point victory against San Francisco for his first Super Bowl win by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but this San Francisco defense is older and better, and Kansas City's offense is not as smooth as they have been in the past.  The most encouraging point for Kansas City - besides knowing how to win and having Patrick Mahomes - Kadarius Toney will not be playing!!!! 

Honestly, other than Mahomes, San Francisco has the majority of the true offensive weapons in today's game:  McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle, versus Kelce, with Pacheco and Rice getting there.  I'll take the weapons.

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1 1/2 Rushing Attempts (+110 - Bet $100 to Win $110)

Speaking of Elijah Mitchell, he has a chance to make bettors some real money here.  Now of course the offense will be focused on Christian McCaffrey, but he is going to have some breaks - and Mitchell is more than solid.  Plus, he had 4 carries against Detroit.

I see Mitchell getting 4 to 5 carries this game.

Record

Last Week's Record:  1-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Playoffs' Record:  16-8

Playoffs' Big Bet:  3-1

Year-to-Date Record:  160-122-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($395)

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,155

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,250

Picks of the Weeks - Conference Championship Weekend!!!

 

The fantastic Wildcard Wekeend continued with a 6-2 week in the Divisional Round, including winning both big bets!!!  Cannot do much better than that!  An amazing playoff run that I hoop continues through Conference Championship Weekend.  Either way, this looks like it will be some great football watching today.  Who to bet on?  Let's see!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs + 4 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

There is a legitimate chance that the Chiefs could win this game outright, so might as well take the points, right?  That, and Patrick Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread in his playoffs career.  I still expect the Ravens to win the game though, based on the fact that Buffalo easily sliced through the Chiefs defense, exposing what was the thrid best defense in the NFL - and Baltimore is a much better offense than Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

I expect this to be a 50+ point game, despite the fact that these two teams are first (Baltimore) and second (Kansas City) in the NFL in points allowed.

San Francisco 49ers -7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

A lot of focus will be on the fact that both teams are tough against the run - with Detroit finishing second in the NFL and San Francisco finishing third, but the Lions are much worse against the pass (27th in the NFL) and Deebo Samuel is playing this week to give San Francisco that extra weapon for Detroit to try to stop.  

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 52 1/2

Honestly, I do not feel strongly either way on this.  Some sustained drives might limit possessions, keeping the score low - but just a guess.

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

I expect this to be a 50+ point game, despite the fact that these two teams are first (Baltimore) and second (Kansas City) in the NFL in points allowed.

Both offenses should be in full effect in this game.  I honestly expected the O/U to be around 47 to 48, so I will take the OVER.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoffs' Record:  15-5

Playoffs' Big Bet:  3-0

Year-to-Date Record:  159-119-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $680

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,550

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,645

Picks of the Week - Divisional Playoffs!!!

 

A fantastic start to the playoffs, going 9-3 and winning both big bets!!!  My only losses?  Detroit and Rams failed to cover, Detroit didn't cover the 3, and Cleveland lost as a favorite.  I will take that percentage from here on out!!!  Divisional round time!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -9 v. Houston Texans

This Texans story is great for the league, and C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell (once he returns) are going to be a burden for the AFC for the forseeable future.  Can you imagine if they got a stud running back?  But, Baltimore is here now, with the number 1 scoring defense only allowing 16.5 points per game, and the 6th best pass defense to counteract C.J. Stroud's passing attack.  A week off and rested, and Lamar Jackson is going to go crazy.

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

Just check out what this Ravens team has done playing other potential Super Bowl contenders this year!  Domination after domination.  They could score 30+ by themselves, and Houston's offense will push this OVER the top.

Green Bay Packers +9 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Don't get me wrong, San Francisco wins this game, but this Packers team is much, much different with Aaron Jones at running back.  I said that last week when I picked Green Bay +7, and I will do it again with them getting 9 1/2 points.  Their 28th ranked rushing defense is going to have really play the game of their lives with Christian McCaffrey, et. al. running the ball.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers OVER 50 1/2

Lots of points here to be scored between the rejuvenated Packers offense averaging 22.5 per game - including games in which Aaron Jones was absent - and a 49ers offense averaging 28.9.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This game is likely going to come down to whether or not Tampa Bay's defense can stop the aerial attack of Detroit.  Detroit has the wnd-best passing game in the NFL and Tampa's pass defense is 29th.  An interesting stat, though, is that Tampa's last-rated rush offense averages only 88.8 yards per game, whereas Detroit's 2nd ranked rush defense gives up only 88.8 yards per game.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions UNDER 49 1/2

As you will see, I will be picking the over in the next game, and I cannot select all Overs.  This game seems like it is the most likely to end 24-17.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Buffalo Bills

If Kadarious Toney doesn't play, this game could be a route by the Chiefs.  No, in all seriousness, Rashee Rice has emerged as the go-to receiver in Kansas City not named Travis Kelce, and even though Buffalo's offense is more balanced (8th in passing and 7th in rushing) thanks to Josh Allen's legs and the emergence of James Cook, the aforementioned Allen is likely to make one or two bad turnovers on which the experienced Chiefs will capitalize.  And, with all three linebackers for Buffalo hobbling, at best, Pacheco could ultimately overpower the Bills middling rush defense.  And I am getting points!!!

 

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills OVER 45 1/2

I smell shootout!!!

Big Bet I:

Kansas City Chiefs +3 at Buffalo Bills

If Kadarious Toney doesn't play, this game could be a route by the Chiefs.  No, in all seriousness, Rashee Rice has emerged as the go-to receiver in Kansas City not named Travis Kelce, and even though Buffalo's offense is more balanced (8th in passing and 7th in rushing) thanks to Josh Allen's legs and the emergence of James Cook, the aforementioned Allen is likely to make one or two bad turnovers on which the experienced Chiefs will capitalize.  And, with all three linebackers for Buffalo hobbling, at best, Pacheco could ultimately overpower the Bills middling rush defense.  And I am getting points!!!

Yes, this is Patrick Mahomes' first road playoff game.  DID YOU HEAR THAT?  HIS FIRST HOME PLAYOFF GAME!!!!  But, the experience of the team will take over and the Chiefs win.

Big Bet II:

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

Just check out what this Ravens team has done playing other potential Super Bowl contenders this year!  Domination after domination.  They could score 30+ by themselves, and Houston's offense will push this OVER the top.

The lowest Over/Under of the weekend, and I am pumping the over on this HARD!  Lots of points in this game.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  2-0

Playoffs' Record:  9-3

Playoffs' Big Bet:  2-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-117-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $870

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $870

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,965

Picks of the Week - YEARLY RECAP

 

So another season has ended, and what a great year it was.  The playoffs were a high point, as I definitely learned throughout the year, and that knowledge of this season definitely helped.  If only a couple of more sacks in the Super Bowl and this would have been TREMENDOUS, as I lost two sacks-related prop bets.  For the season, Buffalo was great, but not as great as everyone thought.  I shorted them.  Cincinnati was a betting godsend.  I took Washington early, but then gave up on them right around Taylor Heinecke's second start.  Miami was a roller coaster wave that a savvy bettor could ride with tremendous success.  And never sell Patrick Mahomes short, or overlook Andy Reid with a bye week (27-4 in his career).  All of that led to this ...

Last Week's Record:  7-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1

Year-to-Date Record:  162-139-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  13-9-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $405

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week

 

Another .500 week, but with the Big Bet being spot-on again, I inch a little closer to the break-even point.  (Yes, I know that cursed me to lose the big bet this week.)  So, a winning record overall, and just a bit in the red for the year, it might be time for me to make my move.  Also, starting off with a Thursday win that practically everybody doubted is a good start.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Houston Texans +14 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Home team on a short week.

Miami Dolphins -4 at Chicago Bears

The Bears have some good young cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, but against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the problem is that they are  young.  Oh yeah, and Johnson is out.  Give me Tuanigamanuolepola for the win!

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Washington Commanders

I really hate taking two road favorites in a row, but I feel like I have to do that here.  Taylor Heinecke is a decent option at quarterback, but this teams just doesn't score enough points.  For Washington to have a chance, they are going to have to get off the field on third-down, something that they are third-best in the NFL at doing.  They just don't have enough firepower.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Honestly, I think Cincinnati is angry at how they lost Monday night and might be raring to come out firing against a bad Panthers team.  However, their firepower is limited without J'Marr Chase (Higgins and Boyd are excellent, but Chase just puts so much pressure on a defense.)  Plus, it is a short week for Cincinnati.

Buffalo Bills -11 at New York Jets

This is preposterous.  An 11 point favorite on the road in an intra-divisional battle.  However, I am so old that I remember when the Jets were on eof the best passing teams in the league.  That was way back when Joe Flacco was starting and not third-string, a postition to which he was recently demoted.  Now, the Jets are 14th in passing.  The Bills, are 1st in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 1st in scoring defense, and 3rd in total defense.  Loooooooong day for Zach Wilson.

New England Patriots -5 v. Indianapolis Colts

These Patriots might be the worst 4-4 team of all time.  They are 21st in total offense, 19th in total defense, but would you want to go against a Belichick defense if you were a rooke quarterback, huh Sam Ehlinger?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

All of Jacksonville's losses have been within 1 score, which means they will keep in close.  Never trust a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, as they fail to cover approximately 2/3 of the time.  Plus, Darren Waller is out.

Detroit Lions +4 v. Green Bay Packers

A home underdog in a division rivalry game always seems right.  But, especially this game as Green Bay must be downtrodden after doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at the trade deadline, including losing Chase Claypool to the Bears because Pittsburgh thinks Chicago's 2nd round draft pick will be higher than Green Bay's.  Perhaps not the way Green Bay is playing.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

First, the Chargers (along with the Raiders) have to be the most disappointing team in the NFL.  As far as this game goes, Atlanta is 5th in rushing, and the Chargers are 27th in rushing defense.  The Falcons are 6th in scoring and Los Angeles is 31st in scoring defense.  Plus, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time zone slot.  Wait, anybody know the numbers on this during "fall back" weekeng?

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle, seriously, is the 4th-highest scoring team in the NFL.  Arizona is the 30th-ranked scoring defense team.  Plus, Kenneth Walker moving into the starting lineup has been a serious game-changer for Seattle.  This kid is a star!

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly didn't know what to do with this game at first.  Both teams are disappointing, and are not playing up to their potential.  These are the two worst rushing offenses in the league.  Both have pretty good to great defenses.  I'll just take points.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at New Orleans Saints

Do not let the 5-3 record deceive you, this Ravens team lost a few games at the very end.  They are still losses, but it means they are better than New Orleans.  Andy Dalton might throw for quite a few yards, but the Ravens should run all over the Saints.  Both teams do a good job of converting 3rd downs (9th/8th), and stopping 3rd downs (8th/6th), so whichever team wins that battle will likely win the game.  My guess is Baltimore because of Lamar's scrambling ability.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

This bet is absolutely nuts for a big bet.  No way should I take a prime time game with this big of a spread.  But seriously, Malik Willis, albeit talented, is a rookie that did not have much big game experience in college.  A Kansas City touchdown plus a key turnover on the next drive makes this a two touchdown lead very quickly.  Other games considered, Miami (except they are on the road), Jacksonville (except they are Jacksonville), Seattle (they are on the road), and New England (quarterback issues and competition with Jones v. Zappe.)  If Zappe was starting, I would have New England here.

Last Week's Record:  7-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-2-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($280)

Picks of the Week - Conference Championships

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

This Kansas City offense has been outrageous in the playoffs, averaging 42 points per game, and you have to go back to week 13 to find them scoring less than 28.  Yes, they lost to the Bengals in Week 17, but the Chiefs had already clinched by that point, and the Bengals were fighting for their playoff lives.

Kansas City Chiefs -$350 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $350 to win $100).

The money line on Cincinnati (+$290) is almost enough to make me hedge my bet, but this is Kansas City's third year in a row in the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2

Kansas City's offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, and even in week 17 when the Chiefs lost, the teams scored 65.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the game that the Rams have been waiting for all season.  They picked up Odell Beckham, Jr. and Von Miller for the Super Bowl, not just for the regular season.  Yes, San Francisco has won 6 in a row against the Rams, but not 7.

Los Angeles Rams -$170 v. San Francisco 49ers

I had the Rams against Kansas City in the Super Bowl since the very beginning of the season.  No reason to change now.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams UNDER 46

I can't pick ALL overs.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2

Kansas City's offense is clicking on all cylinders right now, and even in week 17 when the Chiefs lost, the teams scored 65.

This will be a scoring bonanza.

Last Week's Record:  7-5

Playoff Record:  17-12-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-1

Year-to-Date Record:  160-141-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($335)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($1)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($341)  

Picks of the Week

Just when I was getting back to normal, and little back-slide last week, but at least my big bet covered.  Thank goodness for the Packers, who are 9-1 against the spread this year.  Maybe I should just keep selecting them as my big bet (ugh!).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -7 at Atlanta Falcons

Home team/short week, right?  Not when the Pats are on a hot streak, and Atlanta is not only reeling, they are pretty boring too.

Chicago Bears +4 v. Baltimore Ravens

On the one hand, Lamar Jackson is 25-2 the first time he plays a team, and this is his first game against the Bears.  On the other hand, Jackson is suffering from an undisclosed illness and may not play today.  He missed practice Wednesday and Thursday, practiced Friday, but suffered more effects yesterday.  The good thing for Tyler Huntley is that Khalil Mack is having season-ending foot surgery.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco looked great last Monday night in their victory over the Los Angeles Rams.  But, that is part of the problem. It was Monday night, which makes this a short week.  On top of that San Francisco is travelling east and playing the early game.  I'll take points in that situation.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Washington Football Team

Washington played great in their victory last week over the Buccaneers, but their defense is still 28th in the league in scoring, whereas Carolina's is 6th.  I know this is the return of Cam Newton game, but to me most importantly is that Christian McCaffrey has a game under his belt.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Minnesota Vikings

Did you not read the stat above where the Packers are 9-1 against the spread?  They have a better record against the spread than their actual record.  Plus, Aaron Rodgers has had some practice this week to get used to playing with his sore toe.  Poor baby.

Cleveland Browns -13 v. Detroit Lions

I'll admit that this pick is completely counterintuitive, but there is a tendency to overvalue the immediate past game, in this case the Lions' tie with the Steelers and the Browns' blowout at the hands of the Patriots.  Because both of those games will be overvalued, all the public money will be on the Lions.  Mine will be on the return of Nick Chubb against Detroit's 30th ranked rush defense.  Oh yeah, and with Jared Goff out, Tim Boyle is starting.  Seriously go look at his college stats - 12 career touchdowns and 26 career interceptions.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Indianapolis Colts

A lot of focus is going to be on Josh Allen and the team's 2nd best scoring offense, but this game will be won by Buffalo's defense which is 1st overall, 1st in scoring, 1st in 3rd down percentage, 2nd in passing defense, and 3rd in rush defense.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. New Orleans Saints

The ascendancy of Jalen Hurts continues.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 at New York Jets

The Dolphins have the worst rushing offense in the league, but, the Jets have the worst total defense and scoring defense, the 31st passing defense and the 29th rushing defense.  Miami will find a way to score some points.

Tennessee Titans -10 v. Houston Texans

I am not even going to bother researching anything to do with the Texans and I am just taking Tennessee at home.

Las Vegas Raiders +1 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Both teams were shellacked last week.  In that scenario, I'll take points at home.  Expect lots of passing yards in this game with Las Vegas (2nd) and Cincinnati (8th) going against a mediocre pass defense in Las Vegas (12th) and a poor one in Cincinnati (24th).

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I try not to overvalue just one game, but I do feel like we have been waiting all year for the Chiefs to explode like they did last week.  Could that be a bit of a portent of something to come?  I believe so.  Especially with Tyron Smith and Amari Cooper out for testing positive for Covid (with Cooper missing at least two games - which means he was unvaccinated).

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't like this pick, but it looks like Colt McCoy will be starting.  And, since Russell Wilson has one game under his belt after recovering from injury thanks to his rehab of 29 hours each day, perhaps he might be close to his former self.

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger returns.  Is this actually a good thing or not for Pittsburgh?

New York Giants +11 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Giants are improving and Tampa Bay is sliding.  Perhaps Antonio Brown has meant more to this team than previously thought?  He is also out agains this week.

Big Bet

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I try not to overvalue just one game, but I do feel like we have been waiting all year for the Chiefs to explode like they did last week.  Could that be a bit of a portent of something to come?  I believe so.  Especially with Tyron Smith and Amari Cooper out for testing positive for Covid (with Cooper missing at least two games - which means he was unvaccinated).

Banking on Kansas City being on an upswing after last week's performance.

Bye Week:  Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  79-71

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($130)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($615) 

NFL Picks of the Week

A horrible playoff predicting week, but it sets up great matchups for today.  Always trying to look at the positive, I suppose.  The four remaining teams are the top 4 seeds from the season, and the top 4 scoring offenses for the entire year: (Chiefs, Saints, Rams, Patriots - in that order), so that much of the analysis will center on things other than prolific scoring offenses.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Since we know that both teams can score practically at will, we are going to have to focus on the defenses.  The visiting Rams have the 19th ranked total defense and 20th in scoring defense, but 23rd in rushing defense.  As much as was written and said about the Rams using both Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson to bash the Dallas Cowboys last week - both went for over 100 yards each - this could be a really big game for the other two-headed backfield which includes Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram.  Plus, New Orleans' defense, which finished 14th in total and scoring defense, has a stout rush defense finishing 2nd in the NFL and not giving up 100 yards to any single running back this  year.  Sheldon Rankins being out does hurt that front line a bit, but look for the Saints to win this game the old-fashioned way, by running and stopping the run.

New Orleans Saints -165 v. Los Angeles Rams (Bet $165 to win $100)
If I think the Saints are going to cover the spread, I definitely have to with the money line on this one, as the -165 line does not scare me away, especially since the Rams are only +140.  No need to hedge my bets.  I will bet against the team with the worst quarterback remaining, one that played well most of the season,  but struggled down the stretch.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints UNDER 56 1/2
The unders have been hitting way more than they should this playoff season, and I am definitely taking the over in the next game, so I am going under here.  Plus, both defenses played very well last week, giving me hope for a repeat performance.  Perhaps something like 28-20 Saints.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 v. New England Patriots
I do not buy into this whole "passing of the torch" game from Brady as the GOAT to Patrick Mahomes, as the up-and-comer defeats the all-time great.  Mostly because I feel that Dan Marino is the GOAT - man, nobody could fling it like him), but also because of matchups.  Everybody always says the Belichick schemes to take away the other persons best player on offense.  So, who does he plan against?  If he tries to take away Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelcie is going to have a ton of favorable matchups, and despite the fact Rob Gronkowski is in this game, Kelcie is the best tight end in football right now.  If the tries to take away Kelcie, not even Stephon Gilmore can cover Tyreek Hill man-to-man for the entire game.  Yes, New England beat Kansas City 43-40 earlier this year, but that was in New England, in week 6.  The Chiefs did outscore New England 31-19 in the second half, meaning they caught on to what New England was trying to do defensively.   New England's crowning grace is that they do not rely upon any one, two or even three weapons offensively, which could expose Kansas City's 31st ranked defense, but my guess is not by enough in Kansas City.

Kansas City Cheifs -160 v. New England Patriots
For all of the reasons I stated in the previous pick.  Plus, Patrick Mahomes was the best quarterback this year, and Tom Brady wasn't even close to that level.  Yes experience counts, but so does talent, and right now Mahomes has lots of it himself, and around him.

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 56 
I already feel that the Chiefs are going to score points, and Kansas City does have the 31st ranked defense in the NFL, so New England should score its share.  This number opened at 58 and dropped two full points to 56, which I suspect has more to do with the weather than anybody's faith in the defenses.

Big Bet
New Orleans Saints -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Saints have easily been the best overall team in the NFL for the entire season.  That has to count for something.

Last Week's Record:  4-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  135-134-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($525)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1510)

Professional Football Wrap-Up

Exciting Week 2; made even more so by my boy Ortega's birthday.  Lots of people, fun and games.  And my birthday present to him was that the Bears took Khalil Mack off of the  hands of his beloved Raiders.  You're Welcome!!!  Once again, none of the patrons stood for the anthem, Anyway, here are my thoughts from Week 1 of the NFL season.

Game of the Week

Minnesota 29 - Green Bay 29.  Two playoff-contending teams battling it out on the not yet frozen tundra.  Bad calls (the Clay Matthews roughing the passer call - although since he is Clay Matthews he deserved it) and bad kicking decided this sister-kisser.  Other contenders could have been Jacksonville over New England 31-20, but New England was never in this game, or Kansas City defeating Pittsburgh 42-37, but this was never really that close.

Best Team Performance

Jacksonville Jaguars.  Only an 11 point win in the AFC Championship game rematch, but the Jaguars thoroughly dominated New England.  The defense held New England to only 316 total yards, including only 82 yards rushing.  They sacked Tom Brady twice, including a sack, strip, fumble recovery by Dante Fowler, Jr., and Blake Bortles was 29-45 for 377 yards and 4 TDs - against only 1 interception, in Leonard Fournette's absence.  A dominating performance by your new favorites to win the AFC.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Arizona Cardinals.  Second week in a row, but much deserved.  Decimated by the Los Angeles Rams 34-0, and it wasn't even that close.  Sam Bradford threw for only 90 yards (17-27) with an interception, and the entire team only rushed for 54 yards.  They did sack Jared Goff twice and intercepted him once, , but they gave up over 40 yards rushing to Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown, and at least 6 receptions and 60 yards to Cooper Kupp (6/63), Robert Woods (6/81), and Brandin Cooks (7/159).  It is a fight between Arizona and Buffalo for the worst team in the NFL.  Is it time to see Josh Rosen?

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Patrick Mahomes, QB - Kansas City Chiefs.  He annihilated Pittsburgh's secondary so bad that you would have thought that Vontae Davis was not the only defensive back to retire at halftime.  He was 23-28 for 326 yards and 6 TDs - and no interceptions.  You read that correctly, Mahomes had more touchdown passes than incompletions!

Honorable Mention goes to Ryan FitzMagic of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who went 27-33 for 402 yards and 4 TDs in Tampa's 27-21 victory over the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles, his second consecutive game over 400 yards!

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Darius Leonard, LB - Indianapolis Colts.  Leonard finished his week 2 game with 18 tackles, 1 sack and a forced fumble in the Indianapolis Colts' unlikely 21-9 win at Washington.

Honorable Mention to Shaquill Griffin of Seattle, with his 2 interceptions in a losing effort against the Chicago Bears.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Brandon McManus, K - Denver Broncos.  McManus kicked 2 extra points and 2 field goals, the last from 36 yards with only :06 remaining as the Broncos defeated the Oakland Raiders 20-19.  If you want to know why we celebrate mundane kicking performances, go ask the Minnesota Vikings and Cleveland Browns, both of which cut their kickers yesterday.

Least Impressive Individual Performance

Zane Gonzalez, K - Cleveland Browns.  Gonzalez missed both of his extra point attempts, and missed 2 field goals, any of which would have won the game as the Browns fell to the New Orleans Saints 21-18, as Will Lutz showed Browns fans what a kicker is by nailing a 44 yard field goal with :21 left to win the game.

Honorable Mention to Daniel Carlson of the Minnesota Vikings who missed all 3 of his field goal attempts, though he did hit all 3 of his extra points, in the Vikings tie with Packers.  Loses this honor to Gonzalez only because Gonzalez cost his team last week's win as well.

Both kickers were cut yesterday.

Most Surprising Team Performance

Indianapolis Colts.  After losing pretty handily at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals, the Colts went into D.C. and defeated the Racists 21-9, holding Washington to only 65 yards rushing, with 43 of those yards to quarterback Alex Smith and wide receiver Jamison Crowder.  Andrew Luck was not sharp, but closed this game out with a fourth quarter TD pass to T.Y. Hilton for the final margin of victory.  Both teams are now 1-1.

Most Disappointing Team Performance

Pittsburgh Steelers.  Expecting a bounce-back performance after a week 1 tie with Cleveland, Pittsburgh laid an egg against the Kansas City Chiefs, losing 42-37 in a game that was never that close.  Pittsburgh's secondary still has yet to make an appearance in the ball game.

Most Surprising Individual Performance
Matt Breida, RB - San Francisco 49ers.  Breida, who was slated to be the 49ers backup running back until Jerrick McKinnon went down, rushed 10 times for 138 yards a 1 TD in San Francisco's 30-27 defeat of the Detroit Lions.

Most Disappointing Individual Performance

Kickers.  See above regarding Zane Gonzalez and Daniel Carlson.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Chelsea 4-1 over Cardiff City.  Chelsea gave up an early goal in the 16th minute before running off 4 straight, including the winner just before halftime.  Chelsea parlayed 77% possession into 18 shots (7 on goal) in annihilating Cardiff City to remain a perfect 5-0 (along with Liverpool) at the top of the table.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Eden Hazard - Chelsea.  Hazard, the engine that makes the Chelsea offense drive scored a natural hat trick with goals in the 37th minute and 44th minute (both from Giroud) and a penalty kick in the 80th minute after Willian drew a foul in the area.

Goat of the Week

Zane Gonzalez, K - Cleveland Browns.  Not to beat a dead kicker, but he lost two games for the Browns now.  And, he is cut.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Harry Kane - Tottenham Hotspur.  The usually prolific scorer Kane managed just 2 measly shots as the Spurs fell 2-1 to Liverpool.  Now losing to Liverpool in and of itself is no shame as they do sit at the top of the table, but Kane has to be more involved in the offense if the Spurs are to challenge for a UCL spot next year (they currently sit in 6th place).

Breakthrough Performance

Brandin Cooks, WR - Los Angeles Rams.  Cooks caught 7 of his 9 targets for 159 yards.  Although Cooks' big play potential has been known, this week's performance shows that he has easily replaced the departed Sammy Watkins in the Rams offense, and is possibly an even better weapon for Jared Goff than even Watkins was.

Comeback Performance

Nathaniel Hackett, OC - Jacksonville Jaguars.  Having learned from the pathetic, stagnant second half in the AFC Championship game, Hackett opened up the offense and let Blake Bortles throw, and this caught the New England Patriots completely by surprise.  In turn, the Jaguars dominated the defending AFC Champions, with the offense playing just as well as the defense.

Finally

Allen Robinson, WR - Chicago Bears.  Robinson flashed lots of potential in his 4 years with the Jaguars.  He only "flashed" because he was often injured.  With 10 catches on Monday night (out of 14 targets), Robinson showed that he can be the big target needed by young Mitchell Trubisky.  Robinson was key on third down converting 4 third downs with his catches to keep drives alive, and the clock moving.

Impact Injury

Joe Mixon, RB - Cincinnati Bengals.  He is only have his knee cleaned, but his speed is incredibly important in the revival of the Bengals offense, and by making the safeties respect the running game, A.J. Green is finding himself more space in which to operate.  Giovanni Bernard is a true veteran backup, but he does not have Mixon's pure speed.

Team Rising

Miami Dolphins - All of a sudden they are 2-0 and in first place in the AFC East.  Yes it is early, but Tannehill has been efficient, and the running game is 6th in the NFL  behind a combination of Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore, who is now fourth on the All-Time rushing list.  With Oakland next at home, they have a good shot to enter New England 3-0.

Team Falling

Seattle Seahawks - They are nowhere near the presence of recent vintage, and it clearly showed as Russell Wilson was running for his life most of the game and the offense could barely muster any drives until the very end of the game..

Best Teams
(All undefeated teams will be ranked in the top 5 until there are less than five teams, and then the rankings will consist of my true thoughts and not just records).

1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Jacksonville Jaguars
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Cincinnati Bengals

Worst Teams
(All winless teams will be bottomed ranked teams until there are less than five teams, and then the rankings will consist  of my true thoughts and not just records)

32. Buffalo Bills
31. Arizona Cardinals
30. Oakland Raiders
29. New York Giants
28. Detroit Lions

Middle Teams
(Middle teams based on records until the teams play a significant amount of games to gauge their true ability).

15.  Baltimore Ravens
16.  Chicago Bears
17.  Atlanta Falcons
18.  San Francisco 49ers

Statistic That May Interest Only Me

I mentioned it earlier, but Patrick Mahomes had more touchdown passes (6) than incompletions (5) in the Chiefs victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.  For the year Mahomes has 12 incompletions and 10 touchdown passes.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4. Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Not because this is going to be a good game between great teams, but because this game is going to be fun.  The Steelers defense is 25th in yards against and they basically have no secondary, and Tampa Bay is 1st in total yards and passing, with 482.5 total yards (405 passing) per game.  Likewise, Tampa Bay is 31st in total defense and passing defense with Pittsburgh being second in both offensively.  Can somebody say "Shootout"?

3. Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens.  Denver is 2-0, and Baltimore is 1-1, with Joe Flacco carrying a 93.5 passer rating.  Denver is second in the NFL in rushing and first in third down defensive percentage.  Baltimore  counters with the 7th best passing offense (8th overall) and the second best total defense (third in passing defense).  This is a game between two teams that will likely be battling for playoff position late in the season.

2. Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers - Another game that could be very important come playoff time.  Cincinati is 4th in the NFL in scoring.and third in rushing defense.  Carolina is 5th in rushing offense and 7th in passing defense.  A big matchup for both teams; can largely determine which one is the most legitimate.

1. Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams - A potential Super Bowl preview.

Trivia

Ben Roethlisberger, with his 452 yards passing against Kansas City, moved into 7th place all time in passing yards with 51,852.  In fourth place in that list is Tom Brady.  Brady, drafted in 2000, is in his 18th season in the NFL.  Who is the only other player drafted in 2000 still active in the NFL?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

Today's review is of Duffy's Sports Grill, 225 Clematis Street, West Palm Beach, FL

Part of a local chain that originated in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, Duffy's on Clematis was chosen as it is the local spot for my boy Ortega, who turned 53 on Sunday.  His birthday, his choice.  Lots of people, drinks, food and football.

Ambiance is simply generic-themed sports bar.  Lots of televisions, but they are arranged so that you can really only watch one or two at a time.  There does seem to be a constant neck stretch as you turn from one set of cheers to another to see what is going on.  Enough coverage for all the games, but something just isn't great in the setup.

The sports feel/vibe is good.  A ton of Buffalo Bills fans, New York Jets fans and Miami Dolphins fans congregate at this location.  A smattering of almost every other team as well.  All football on Sundays.  This is good.

I ate before I went to Duffys's, but have eaten the food here many, many times.  Very good for a sports bar.  Known for their wings, I find them OK, at best, but the burgers, salads, ribs, and flatbreads are first rate for bar fare.  They serve a fantastic Caribbean chicken with beans and rice, as well.

The beer selection is OK.  Some craft beers, but caters to your bud light/miller lite bucket crowd.  Very few crafts on tap.  More in bottles, but they don't qualify for the two for one special, or at least that is what I was told (even though every other time I have been to any Duffy's they did - so this was weird).  Started with  Bud Light to hydrate, but when I tried to move to the Terrapin Hopsecutioner, I was told that they were not allowed to serve that to me in the 22oz draft because they didn't have enough glasses, and that the small drafts didn't count for two for ones (also weird).  I didn't want the large beer because I am a drunkard, but because we had a party of about 30, and our server had a number of other tables keeping him busy; I didn't want to have to refill as much.  This was a problem.

The server - Nick - himself was awesome.  He hustled the entire time, working up a sweat for sure.  Due to the large size of our party, timing of things wasn't perfect, but that was mostly because of us.  Nick earned his tips for sure!

The bathrooms are tiny, and often the women's room would develop a line in the small hallway leading to the bathrooms.  Rooms are clean though.

Service - Aaron Rodgers (Awesome)
Drinks - Ryan Tannehill (Perfectly adequate)
Food - DeShaun Watson (historically good to date, but unknown on this week)
Cleanliness - Matt Ryan (good, steady, nothing bad)
Sports Accommodations - Matt Stafford (initially looks pretty good, but something is just a little off)
Overall - Joe Flacco (Good, better than most, not quite as great as others)

Rating System Based Upon Career of QBs chosen:  Meaning, even the rating system is subjective.

Trivia Answer

Last Week's Question was:  Chicago Bears LB Khalil Mack had a sack, forced fumble, fumble recover, interception, and touchdown in the first half of Sunday nights' game against the rival Green Bay Packers.  As widely reported, Mack was the first player since Lawrence Taylor in 1982 to record all of those statistics in one half.  Who was the last player in the NFL to accomplish this in a full game?

Khalil Mack - 2016!

Check back in next week.