Picks of the Week - NFL Week 8

 

Finally, a pretty good week.  A winning week in terms of percentage, and with the Big Bet being correct, in the positive!!!  Ordinarily that would be great, except I have already dug myself a really big hole for the year.  But, I would say that I am figuring this season out, but we all know that is not true.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Chargers are the second-best team in total offense (3rd in passing).  And since the defenses are relatively even - within an average of 12 yards per game, I will take the more prolific offense given that they are the home team on a short week.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

It is possible that Lamar Jackson returns for Baltimore, but even if he does, he has only been limited in practice this week.  Will he be a bit rusty?  Also, he doesn't help the defense that is giving up 32.3 points per game - last in the NFL.  Chicago is 10th in scoring, and is the only team in the league that has scored at least 21 points in each of its games.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. New York Jets

The Jets are in disarray evidenced by Woody Johnson's comments this week about Justin Fields.  Is it possible that Breece Hall and Quinnen Williams are moved by the trade deadline?  I don't know but I guarantee there will be discussions.  The Joe Flacco reclamation train steams full-speed ahead, with the best receiving corps he has EVER had.

Buffalo Bills -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Carolina's defense is actually pretty stout (6th overall, 8th rushing defense and 10th passing defense), and Andy Dalton is a tried-and-true professional, but Buffalo is rested and coming off a bye-week and two-game losing streak, so I expect them to come roaring out against the Panthers.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This Texans' defense is absolutely terrifying, as it is 1st in scoring, 4th in total defense, 5th in passing defense, and 10th in rushing defense.  But Houston's offense is below average in everything, and is next to last in 3rd-down percentage.  Plus, who had Mac Jones leading the number 1 passing offense?!  Nobody, that's who.  I'll take the points with McCaffrey, especially with Houston playing on a short week.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

With both teams well-into the bottom-half in scoring defense, and both teams in-or-near the middle in scoring, I will take over a touchdown.  Philly wins, but New York keeps it close.

Cleveland Browns +6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Ladies and Gentlemen:  Your first-place/division-leading New England Patriots.  I actually hate this pick, but for all of Cleveland's faults, they have the number 1 total defense in the NFL (3rd passing/4th rushing), so that alone could keep this game close.

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let's be clear, I absolutely HATE this pick.  I really, really, really want to pick Tampa Bay here, because let's face it, Tampa is better!!!  But, Tampa Bay is on a short week, and a home dog in an intra-divisional game is always a smart choice.  Doesn't feel right here, but I will go with it and not try to overthink it, especially since defensively the team ranks are pretty similar.

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Denver is giving points after an ultra-emotional unrealistic comeback win (33 points in the 4th quarter!!!) over the New York Giants.  There just HAS to be some type of letdown.

Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is just ridiculous enough to happen!

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Yes Pittsburgh is in first in the AFC North, but I think that is more about Mike Tomlin than anything else, as the team was a bit exposed against the Bengals last week.  They do have some extra rest, but I expect Green Bay to win this by 10.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

This pick seems really disrespectful to the Commanders, but the Chiefs have won all 4 of their games by over 13 points (4-1 in their last 5 after an 0-2 start), and the Commanders will be playing without starting quarterback Jayden Daniels.  I will roll the dice with two double-digit favorite picks.  Maybe one of them hits.

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

How did Mike McDaniel survive last week's 31-7 shellacking at the hands of the Cleveland Browns?    They are 26th in total defense and 29th in total offense, going against the second-best defense in the NFL, with the 7th ranked total offense in Atlanta.  Which leads to a bigger question, how is Atlanta only 3-3?

This is a lot of points to give-up for a Big Bet, but I really do think the Dolphins have given up.  Plus, my other thoughts are all on the road (Green Bay, Cleveland, and Dallas).

Last Week Record: 9-6

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 49-59

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-5

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  $390

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,115) 

Picks of the Week

It is the heart of the season where teams make a playoff push, or fall, and bettors make money, or lose.  Time to button-up and get some wins.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The first game between these two teams was an overtime barnburner, but this time around is a short week for the visting Bengals.  Still managed to take it down to the wire.

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany

Carolina is embarrasing - so let's send them overseas.

Chicago Bears -6 v. New England Patriots

Perhaps this bet is just hopeful.

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

This might just be the defense that Caleb Williams needs to right the ship and prove that he is improving in his rookie season.  This is not the defense Drake Maye wants to see right now, even though he has shown promise in his few starts.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

West coast team traveling east versus team on a short week. So, there is no good bet here.  I am taking the team with returning playmakers (McCaffrey and Jennings), versus the team without them (Godwin and Evans).

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I would feel much better if this was a 6 1/2 point spread, as this is a divisional game, but DeAndre Hopkins makes this Chiefs offense way scarier, as defenses had focused on Travis Kelce, and now they can't.  Plus, the Chiefs deense has been outstanding (2nd overall, 3rd against the rush, and 4th in scoring).

Buffalo Bills -4 at Indianapolis Colts

For all of the blame that Indy's offense, particularly Anthony Richardson, has taken this year, the Colts' defense is 30th in total defense, 26th in passing, 31st in rushing, and 24th in 3rd down percentage.  Just what Josh Allen needs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Washington Commanders

The marquee game of the week.  Really just playing a hunch here, given Brian Robinson is out for Washington.

Minnesota Vikings -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota as a road favorite this high is tough, but Jacksonville's defense is 31st in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (and 30th in scoring defense), not good when going against Justin Jefferson.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Another big spread, but at least this time at home.  Chargers are the stingiest team to score against, and Tennessee rarely scores (27th in NFL).

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia has won 4 in a row, and the Cowboys are without Dak Prescott, and CeeDee Lamb is hobbled.

New York Jets -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Just a hunch honestly, based on the Jets defense (2nd in passing, 6th in total defense, 10th in scoring defense).

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins would be a great return for this Texans, but he still might not be up-to-speed, and this Lions team is humming with 6 wins in a row.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The Rams are on a 3-game winning streak, and get to host the struggling Dolphins at home.  Can the Rams defense (24th against the run) slow down Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert?  Enough, yes, given that the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have made this offense way more potent than its ranking (18th).

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

When you take a lot of favorites, you have to select a big bet giving points, and 3 1/2 is not that much given how easily I think the Falcons will win.  It has taken a while for the defense - and all its new members - to gel, but Justin Simmons and the other new Falcons are certainly coming around.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-66-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-3

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($355)

Picks of the Week

So, the previous week wasn't the regression from my 13-2 week, but last week really was.  Could have been a lot worse if any of the 3 ties broke in the other direction.  Yes, 3 ties.  Ridiculous.  But, gotta bounce back, so I have given serious thought to the picks this week.  Let's see how that goes.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I didn't actually want to pick the Steelers on Thursday, but somehow, just sticking to the gambling rules, home team on a short week, actually worked!!!

Miami Dolphins + 1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs (in Frankfurt, Germany)

This pick actually makes no sense, as both offenses are dynamic (1st in the Dolphins, and 4th for the Chiefs), but the Chiefs have s sturdier defense (3rd overall, 2nd in scoring, 2nd in passing).  But, I just think the Jalen Ramsey addition is going to jump start Miami after his interception last week.

Chicago Bears + 9 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Saits win easily, but I just cannot give up almost double digits and be happy watching the game.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Every fiber of my being says the Rams take this; but people lose going against the gambling rules.  We have not had a west coast team traveling east and playing in the early slot in a long time.  Gotta take the Packers.

Washington Commanders +3 at New England Patriots

Even with Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington was 29th in pass defense.  Although the Patriots have played tough recently, the Commanders won't need a pass rush to annoy Mac Jones.

Houston Texans -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston is 11th in pass offense whereas Tampa Bay is 28th in pass defense.  Expect a big game from C.J. Stroud in bouncing back from last week's loss to the Panthers.

Cleveland Browns -12 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Double digits is a tough spread in the NFL, buta rookie quarterback making his first start for a team that seems like they have clearly given up this season.  Plus, DeShaun Watson's return could spark a talented, but underachieving pass offense.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The Ravens are playing amazingly right now, and their defense will be the difference in this game.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team, traveling east, and playing in the early slot - which are historically sure losers against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

It would be that kind of year for the Bears to have the Panthers win 2 games in a row.  But, I don't think so.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

Two dumpster fires going head-to-head.  Remind me to miss this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The passing games are what is going to decide this game.  The Eagles are 26th in pass defense, and although the Cowboys are 4th, they are currently playing without any cornerbacks (ok, slight hyperbole).  Eagles because they are home.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions, so much so that I am taking the team that is the 31st ranked offense and 28th ranked defense, and giving points to the Bills.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at New York Jets

Seriously - do you actually believe that the Jets have the best record here?  (They do!)  But, the league's worst pass defense has nothing to fear in the 31st ranked passing offense, so I'll take the team that scores.

Bye Week:  Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

I don't like any of these games for the Big Bet.  My other thoughts were taking the Las Vegas Raiders, and Houston.  But, just gonna bet against the BYU quarterback in his first start.  (That's Jaren Hall, not Zach Wilson, but also applicable!!!)

Last Week's Record:  5-8-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  64-51-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($230)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,045 

Picks of the Week

WOW - what an amazing week.  And a couple of plays from an even BETTER record.  Even with losing the big bet (thanks for nothing Minnesota,) I still made enough to put myself in the black for the year.  Of course, since I mentioned it that means that I am due for big losses this week.  Not hoping for that, but we shall see.  Picks going up early because of Christmas and family, so I hope no major injuries or benching hurt my selections.

Also, I am still waiting for the Space Force Academy to start playing college football (IYKYK!)  Not sure when that will happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at New York Jets

This is going against the betting rules, but San Francisco's obvious win as a road team on a short week last week gives me some optimism to take the Jaguars, who have been looking really good lately, as opposed to Zach Wilson.

Chicago Bears +8 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Not because the Bears are so good, but because the Bears have been playing teams relatively close.  They might give up 6 sacks, but boy is it going to be fun watching defenses try to catch up to scrambling Justin Fields and Josh Allen.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Cleveland Browns

Primarily because of the defense (8th total and 7th in passing), and because even while gaining decent yards, Nick Chubb has not looked exactly like Nick Chubb recently.

Atlanta Falcons +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have scored 3, 16, and 10 points in their last 3 games, and suddenly are threatened by the likes of the the surging Chargers for the playoffs, even at 9-5.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at New England Patriots

I don't like road favorites, but Cincinnati is just better.  Although New England's defense is tough (6th overall/9th passing/9th rushing), Cincinnati's defense is 10th overall, so Joe Burrow taking over in the 4th quarter for the win is a likely scenario.

New York Giants +4 at Minnesota Vikings

Even when the Noon Nightmare is putting up huge numbers, Minnesota has looked like they are a team in decline.    And although the Giants offense is pedestria, the Vikings defense is even worse (last in the NFL overall and 28th in scoring defense.)

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Detroit is going to end up in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs -10 v. Seattle Seahawks

I hate giving up double digits, but Seattle has fallen off a cliff.  They have won 1 of their last 5, but that was against the horrible Rams, and it was close.  Kenneth Walker is back, which helps, but as good of a story as Geno has been for most of the season, Seattle is cooked.  And, teams are 1-12 in weeks after they have played the San Francisco 49ers.  That is straight up and not against the spread, but it is indicative of just how much the 49ers beat up teams.

Houston Texans + 3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Houston is coming off two consecutive covers - at Dallas and against the Chiefs.  Granted, those spreads were huge, but for large parts of those games Houston was the better team.  Given the way they have been playing, the better cover against the Titans.  The last ranked rush defense is worrisome against Derrick Henry, but eventhen, Tennessee is only 15th in rushing. 

San Francisco 49ers -7 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have been a feel good story this year, especially with the surprise that is Taylor Heinicke, howver, some of that shine is coming off and the Commanders are contemplating turning to Carson Wentz.  San Francisco might just be hitting their stride, and very well could be the favorites to win the Super Bowl right now.

Philadelphia Eagles +5 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

No doubt this line has a lot to do with the fact that Jalen Hurts is not playing, but never underestimate the power of the Minshew.  He is not going to be scared of any defense, even Dallas's (15th total, T7th scoring, 3rd passing), because he faces his own defense in practice every day (2nd total defense, 6th in scoring defense, 1st in passing defense.)  He doesn't have the mobility of Jalen Hurts, but he can fling it - so A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith could have a big day.  This spread should be 2 1/2.

Las Vegas Raiders +2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams are hot with the Raiders winning 4 out of their last 5 and the Steelers winning 3 of their last 4.  There is hope that the Steelers can slow down Josh Jacobs, as they are 7th against the rush.  But, in a game that should be close I am taking the points.

Miami Dolphins -4 v. Green Bay Packers

Both teams looked good last week, Mimai in a loss to Buffalo and Green Bay in its Monday night win over the Rams.  Buffalo is much tougher than the Rams, and they are on a short week.  So, home team against the team on a short week.

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are on a short week, and are not very good.  Baker Mayfield struggled last week, and Denver's defense is better than Green Bay's (5th overall, 5th passing defense, 3rd scoring defense, 2nd third down percentage).  Denver wins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -7 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is in a free fall, having lost 4 in a row after beating a bad Rams team.  Tampa Bay will survive the "challenge" from the other NFC South teams for the automatic playoff spot.  Plus, Colt McCoy.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I said it last week, and I'll say it again - the Chargers just look different when they line up Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.  That also makes Austin Ekeler that much more dangerous.

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons +7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have scored 3, 16, and 10 points in their last 3 games, and suddenly are threatened by the likes of the the surging Chargers for the playoffs, even at 9-5.

Baltimore definitely misses Lamar Jackson and Atlanta plays almost all of its games close (L3, L3, L6, W3, L10, L3, W3) in its last 7.  I don't expect any difference in this game.

Last Week's Record:  10-5-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  114-101-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $285

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $130

Picks of the Week

Of course I get annihilated in week 15, after a phenomenal week 14.  This year has been ridiculous.  Oh well - gotta keep plugging along.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Houston Texans
A short week, plus Houston is 28th in the NFL in passing defense, which doesn't bode well against the number 1 passing offense in the league.  And, Houston's offensive strength in running the ball - 7th in the NFL - but Tampa Bay's defense is 1st in rushing defense.

New England Patriots -6 v. Buffalo Bills
This line is begging for everyone to take the Bills, and in fact, they are, as the line has moved a full point since it opened at -7.  That is the only reason that I am taking the Patriots, because there offense is not good right now, and the Bills defense is great.  (3rd passing defense, 10th rushing defense, 2nd scoring defense and 3rd total defense).  Unfortunately, Buffalo's offense is practically horrid (22nd in total offense and scoring offense).

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Like the above, this line is screaming for action on the Rams.  But, I will once again take the home team (third of three for Saturday's games), and run with it.  Plus, San Fran needs to seriously bounce back from that lost to Atlanta last week.

Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ok, so maybe the Jaguars haven't given up as they beat the Raiders last week.  But that was the Raiders - and Derek Carr.  Atlanta has been playing well lately, having beat New Orleans and San Francisco in the past month.

Baltimore Ravens -9 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
It sure seems as if Cleveland is imploding, doesn't it?

Carolina Panthers +6 1/2 at Indianapolis Cotls
I just think that the Panthers will get a jolt from new starting quarterback Will Grier.  Can McCaffrey be any more dangerous than when the safeties have to actually protect against the deep ball, instead of cheating up to guard McCaffrey?

Miami Dolphins pick 'em v. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals seem to want the number 1 pick more than the Dolphins do.

New York Jets +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
I will take the points, any points, in this game, as we matchup the 30th and 31st ranked total offenses.  YAWN!

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The Saints are rolling, and although we never get the Titans enough credit, by rule I think they have to finish 8-8.

Washington Racists -1 v. New York Giants
Honestly, who cares?

Denver Broncos -7 v. Detroit Lions
A lot of teams would have lost to Kansas City in the snow last week.  Against mediocre and bad teams, Drew Lock has looked pretty good, and that should continue.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. Oakland Raiders
I know the transitive property does not apply to sports, but he Raiders just lost to the Jaguars at home, a team the Rams annihilated - in Jacksonville.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas at its best looks better than Philadelphia at its best.  The question is ... will we get either of their bests?

Seattle Seahawks -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona has gotten better this year, and a good draft or two and they could be challenging for the playoffs.  But, that is in a good draft or two, not now.

Kansas City Chiefs -6 at Chicago Bears
DeShaun Watson v. Pat Mahomes would have been a great battle this week.

Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
No Dalvin Cook for one thing.  Green Bay has been continually underrated all season for another.  I'll take the points.

Big Bet I
Atlanta Falcons -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Ok, so maybe the Jaguars haven't given up as they beat the Raiders last week.  But that was the Raiders - and Derek Carr.  Atlanta has been playing well lately, having beat New Orleans and San Francisco in the past month.

The Jaguars have given up.

Big Bet II

Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
No Dalvin Cook for one thing.  Green Bay has been continually underrated all season for another.  I'll take the points.

Why not another big bet.  Let's save it for Monday night to make it even more interesting.

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-2
Year-to-Date Record:  107-116-2
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  10-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($930)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,890)

Picks of the Week

Some really interesting and exciting games on the menu this weekend.  Enjoy!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Dallas Cowboys
This was the easiest pick I have seen in a long time.  To quote my college friend John Anderson, "Don't get that line AT ALL,"  (emphasis supplied).

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers on in a free fall, and Matt Ryan gets Julio Jones back.

Buffalo Bills +6 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
This is the true test for the Bills defense.  The are third in total defense, passing defense and scoring defense, but the are a mediocre 14th in rush defense, which is where Baltimore will win.  I just think the Bills keep it close.  I really don't like this pick, either way, though.

Cleveland Browns -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are on a winning streak since turning back to Andy Dalton.  (Yes, I know it is only one game, but this year that is a streak for the Bengals).  Cleveland had been on an offensive roll before succumbing to a deplete Pittsburgh team last week.  But, Cincinnati's defense is nowhere near the level of Pittsburgh's.

Green Bay Packers -13 v. Washington Racists
This has been the year for double digit favorites to cover - at least a lot more than I can ever recall.  So, I am going to take it.

Denver Broncos +9 at Houston Texans
I have to give Denver credit for playing fairly well the last 3 weeks, despite losing 2 of those games.  Plus, Drew Lock might be angry that his single-season SEC touchdown passing record was broken last night by Joe Burrow.  Houston wins by a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings -13 v. Detroit Lions
Nothing would excite me more than to see Minnesota lose this game, but, Detroit is not good.  Even a brilliant first half last week from David Blough could not save the Lions.  I probably should take the points, but again, lots of double digit favorites have covered this year.

San Francisco 49ers +2 at New Orleans Saints
San Francisco gets Matt Breida back, and New Orleans will be missing most of its linebacking corps, including Kiki Alonso.

Miami Dolphins +5 1/2 at New York Jets
Give me a tough-playing hard-charging Dolphins team with points against an up-and-down Jets team anytime.  The Jest rush defense is 1st in the NFL, but that won't slow down Ryan Fitzpatrick when their passing defense is 19th.

Indianapolis Colts +2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
First off, I was taking way too many home teams.  Secondly, Indianapolis is 4th in rushing offense and 9th in rushing defense, which is a great way to keep control of the ball. Jameis Winston has been having a very "Jameis Winston" season with a lot of yards (3659 - well on his way to 4,000 for this year and currently second in the NFL), but a horrible TD/INT ration (22/20).

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars
If this game was at 1, I would think differently, but playing the late game will do wonders for the Chargers.  Even with Gardner Minshew II, the Jaguars coaching staff and administration have lost the players.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
The Steelers offense responds to Devlin Hodges, and their defense can put a lot of pressure on the opposing quarterback.  Last week's game showed Pittsburgh can play tough even when short-handed.

New England Patriots -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, I know this is not a typical New England Patriots team, and we all love Pat Mahomes.  But, this Chiefs team is not as good as last year's Chiefs team either, and we all saw what Belichick did to them in the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans -3 at Oakland Raiders
I seriously don't know what to do here.  This is really just a pure guess.

Seattle Seahawks pick 'em at Los Angeles Rams
Russel Wilson is playing out of his mind.  And although the Rams are 2-2 in their last 4 games, the wins were a 17-7 lackluster victory against Chicago and last week against 3-8-1 Arizona.

New York Giants +9 at Philadelphia Eagles
I just think 9 is a bit high with the experienced Eli Manning expected to come in for the Giants.  If Evan Engram does return as expected, that is a talented outlet receiver for Manning, especially to convert critical 3rd downs, so I will take the 9 points.

Big Bet I
Chicago Bears +3 v. Dallas Cowboys
This was the easiest pick I have seen in a long time.  To quote my college friend John Anderson, "Don't get that line AT ALL,"  (emphasis supplied).

Basically because of John Anderson's quote.  Since this was a Thursday game, I did tell my friend Cori that I guaranteed a big Chicago win, but I will also make a second bet to (hopefully not) even things out.

Big Bet II

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Carolina Panthers
The Panthers on in a free fall, and Matt Ryan gets Julio Jones back.

I really wanted to take the Los Angeles Chargers in this one, but couldn't pull the trigger on the road and playing in the Eastern Time Zone.


Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1
Year-to-Date Record:  92-101
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $115
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,710)

Picks of the Week

Coming to the conclusion of fantasy football seasons, as this and next week end most normal leagues.  Good think that I have a few more weeks to continue building out of the hole in which I placed myself.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans -3 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Damn Hook got me.

New York Giants +6 at Chicago Bears
There is no way that I am giving up almost a touchdown with Mitchell Trubisky right now.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are looking at a shootout here.  The Falcons are riding a two game winning streak over divisional foes, beating New Orleans and Carolina by a combined score of 55-12.

Denver Broncos +4 at Buffalo Bills
Denver played the Minnesota Vikings tough last week on the road, losing only by four.  I know that each week is different in the  NFL, but I have to give some credence to the Broncos showing and take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
This is an intradivisional rivalry game, in which Pittsburgh is playing roughly zero of its starters.  OK, so not true on defense, but this game could end 6-0.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Miami has been playing tough.  I don't think Miami has a chance to win this game, but I could see it being 30-20.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers
New Orleans has the third best rush defense, and given that Christian McCaffrey as a runner is one of the two offense weapons Carolina possesses - the other being Christian McCaffrey the receiver - New Orleans should beat Carolina handily.

New York Jets +3 v. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders are a much better team, but the Jets are coming off two consecutive wins (albeit against the Washington Racists and New York Giants), and they are hosting a team travelling east and playing in the early game.

Seattle Seahawks +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Despite the fact/betting rule that I just wrote about west coast teams travelling east and playing in the early game, Russell Wilson has been phenomenal in his career playing in the early game on the east coast, winning approximately 75% of the games.  Since Seattle is the betting underdog, I will take them to win.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Washington Racists
Jeff Driskel has been able to move the ball in the past two games, albeit mostly with his feet.  Given that Washington is 28th in the NFL against the run, Detroit should control the ball and win this game.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Tennessee Titans
Just give me the points in this game.  I don't care which team is favored and why - just give me the points.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v Dallas Cowboys
Yes, something is amiss with this Patriots team, but the Cowboys have serious flaws also.  This game will be played in some serious weather conditions, which favors New England, and, the flu is rumored to be going through the Cowboys this week.  You know what else favors New England?  Bell Belichick over Jason Garrett.

Green Bay Packers +3 at San Francisco 49ers
Aaron Rodgers often plays big in prime time games.  And, despite the expected return of George Kittle, San Francisco is missing a tone of players in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Nobody loves Lamar Jackson as much as I, but Jalen Ramsey practically eliminates the deep passing game to receivers (M. Brown), and the defensive line eliminates the running backs.  That leaves Lamar's running, and short/intermediate passing to Mark Andrews.  That could win them the game, but this should be close..

Byes:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
We are looking at a shootout here.  The Falcons are riding a two game winning streak over divisional foes, beating New Orleans and Carolina by a combined score of 55-12.
I really wanted to select the Jets here, but the Falcons have been playing great football since their coaching shakeup.

Last Week's Record:  6-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  78-85
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  7-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($130)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,170)

Professional Football Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 11 of the NFL season.

Game of the Week

Cleveland Browns 21 Pittsburgh Steelers 7,  This game earns this award for everything except the actual play on the feel. Cleveland sent 2 Pittsburgh receivers - JuJu Smith-Schuster and Dionte Johnson - to the locker room because of helmet-to-helmet hits, -including one ejection.  Then, with time almost out, Browns defensive end Myles Garrett hits Mason Rudolph way late, holds him up for a couple of seconds and then slams him to the ground with his entire body weight.  Interestingly, this results in none of the actual 3 penalties that Garrett committed.  Rudolph reacts by trying to rip Garrett's helmet off, and when that doesn't work, but kicking Garrett in the nether regions trying to get Garrett's body weight off of him.  Garrett responds by actually ripping Rudolph's helmet off, and then swinging, and connecting, with the now helmetless noggin of Rudolph.  Markice Pouncey then comes him, hits Garrett a couple of times, shoves him to the ground, and with another Steeler on top of Garrett, kicks Garrett.  Rudolph - at this time yelling and screaming behind Pouncey, Cleveland Browns lineman Larry Ogunboji comes running in and shoves Rudolph to the ground from the back.  Garrett suspended indefinitely, but no shorter than the rest of the season, Pouncey for 3 games and Ogunboji for 1.  Pouncey likely would not have been suspended until he started kicking.  These teams play in two weeks. 

Best Team Performance

Baltimore Ravens.  For the second consecutive entry (the last one was week 9), the Ravens gave the best team performance, pummeling the Houston Texans 41-7 as Lamar Jackson cemented his place in the MVP race by throwing for 222 yards and 4 scores, and rushing for 86 more yards, as Houston had no answer for the mercurial Jackson.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Carolina Panthers.  The Panthers were absolutely obliterated by the now-resurgent Atlanta Falcons 29-3.  Christian McCaffrey showed some fight with 191 total yards, but this game was never close, not even at 0-0.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Dak Prescott, QB - Dallas Cowboys.  Trying to ensure that Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson do not run away with the MVP race, Prescott threw for 444 yards and 3 TDs, as the Cowboys defeated the Detroit Lions 35-27.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Maxx Crosby, DE, Oakland Raiders.  Crosby had 4 - YES 4 - sacks against the Cincinnati Bengals as the Raiders defeated the winless Bengals 17-10.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Jason Sanders, K - Miami Dolphins.  Only because he recovered only the second successful onside kick in the NFL this year.  Yes, HE recovered it.  Sanders kicked the ball along the ground before him in the second quarter with the Dolphins trailing the Buffalo Bills 16-7, and jumped on it as soon as the ball traveled 10 yards.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Off for international duty.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Off for international duty.

Goat of the Week

Myles Garrett, DE - Cleveland Browns.  You can't swing a helmet at another player, especially if that player is already helmetless and you swing at his head.  A long suspension is warranted.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Off for international duty.

Hit of the Week

Myles Garrett, DE - Cleveland Browns.  See above.

Breakthrough Performance

Bo Scarborough, RB - Detroit Lions.  The humongous running back out of Alabama finally got the opportunity to play after being re-called from the practice squad, and he gained 55 yards on only 4 carries and 1 TD, as the Lions lost to the Cowboys 35-27.  Taking advantage of the injury to Kerryon Johnson, and despite rumblings to the fact that two separate other backs were going to be featured by the Lions, Scarborough came in and showed why he was such a force for the Crimson Tide.

Finally

Deebo Samuel, WR - San Francisco 49ers.  Taking advantage of injuries in the receiving corps, Samuel caught 8 balls for 134 yards, showcasing his speed along the way.

Impact Injury

James Conner, RB - Pittsburgh Steelers.  Conner, who was supposed to be healthy for the Browns game after coming off a previous shoulder injury, was not and he was pulled early by Mike Tomlin and the rest of the coaching staff.  The Steelers are going to need Conner to advance to the playoffs. 

Team Rising

Atlanta Falcons.  Listen, I know that the Falcons are a long, long way off.  But, we cannot overlook two straight intra-divisional trouncings that they have put on rivals New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers in consecutive weeks, including their 29-3 win at Carolina this week.  .

Team Falling

Jacksonville Jaguars. After some intriguing performances by Gardner Minshew II in relief of Nick Foles, the Jaguars have proven only that they are not very good no matter who is behind center right now, after falling to 4-6 after a 33-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts.  More indicative of the Jaguars value is that they have not beaten a team with an over .500 record this season.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.) (Yes, I know that you could have a worse record and be better, see e.g., Baltimore Ravens, but we are working off record.)

1. San Francisco 49ers

2. New England Patriots

3. Baltimore Ravens 

4. Green Bay Packers

5. Seattle Seahawks

Worst Teams

(All winless teams will be ranked here until all teams have at least 1 win, then I will rank them based upon which teams I think are the worst, regardless of record.)

32. Cincinnati Bengals

31. Washington Racists

30. New York Giants

29. Miami Dolphins

28. Denver Broncos

Middle Teams

15. Pittsburgh Steelers
16. Philadelphia Eagles
17. Tennessee Titans

18. Carolina Panthers

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Last Entry's Trivia Questions were:

In Week 7, Aaron Rodgers passed for 400 yards and 5 TDs, while also rushing for a TD.  What other quarterbacks (2) have done that in the history of the NFL?

Answer:  Norm van Brocklin and Mark Rypien.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons.  Not because this game is important or has playoff implications, but the Buccaneers offense is prolific (2 of the top 3 receivers right now in the NFL), and the fact that the Falcons have been playing great makes this a must-watch.  

5. Dallas Cowboys v. New England Patriots.  Two playoff-contenders with serious flaws, but huge fanbases.  Both will likely learn what their respective teams really are.  Would be ranked higher if it wasn't cross-conference.

4. Seattle Seahawks v. Philadelphia Eagles.  We know the Eagles are not what they have been the past couple of years, but a win against the Seahawks could very likely change the course of their season.  Seattle - especially Russell Wilson - is playing great right now, so this game should be really good.

3. Manchester City v. Chelsea.  Two of the four teams at the top of the table battle at the Etihad.  The fourth and third ranked teams respectively seem to be going in opposite directions as City have a loss and a draw in their past two matches across all competitions (albeit the loss was to table-leading Liverpool), and Chelsea have won 2 and drew one across all competitions.  Manchester City is riding old favorites Sergio Aguero and Kevin de Bruyne, while Chelsea has been relying on newcomers Tammy Abraham and Christian Pulisic.  This battle should be great - if everyone is healthy.

2. Baltimore Ravens v. Los Angeles Rams.  This Monday night matchup is fantastic as Lamar Jackson is a much watch.  Not ranked number this week simply because the Rams' offense has been stagnant.  

1. Green Bay Packers v. San Francisco 49ers.  With a combined record of 17-3, this is easily the best matchup of the weekend, and could be a battle for home-field advantage.

Trivia

As the lone remaining winless team, the Cincinnati Bengals have the inside track to selecting first in the 2020 NFL Draft. Name the three players in Bengals history that were selected with the number 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft.  (Hint:  There were 3).

Sports Bar Review of the Week

Nectar
Seminole Casino - Coconut Creek
5550 NW 40th Street
Coconut Creek, FL  33073

I did not watch the games in a sports bar this week because I was attending the Third Eye Blind concert in the Seminole Casino - Coconut Creek in Coconut Creek, Florida.  We did, however, go to one of the bars in the casino to watch part of the night game.  This is a review of that bar - Nectar.

Nectar is technically classified as a lounge, and serves sushi and pizza.  We, however, had food before we went to the concert so we did not eat.

We ordered some drinks, which were mostly subpar.  Three of us ordered dirty martinis, which had absolutely NO dirtiness to them at all.  The double Patron on the rocks, however, was exactly as ordered (which should always be the case).

The atmosphere was really cool.  Loungy, but not douchy.  It had some couches around the edges, but had some booths and high top tables that made it look less bougie and more like an upscale bar.  Not a lot of televisions, but enough were you could see the game from anywhere (since there was only 1 game on at the time - and yes I know the goal of Nectar is not to be a sportsbar).  But, it worked.

Now, all of the minuses listed above (or N/As as to the food) are well limited by the AWESOME music played by the DJ.  She concentrated strictly on 80s and 90s R&B and hip-hop.  Yes, it had songs like the predictable but always enjoyable Jump Around, but it also played lesser-played (at clubs that is) songs like Too Close by Next and what I call the 90s ladies, Jade, SWV, and the like.  There was a small dance floor off to one side of Nectar, but that did not matter as everyone was out of their respective seats and just danced in all of the aisles.  This place was BUMPIN'.

Given that we were not expecting this lively atmosphere since we just wanted a couple of last drinks and a view of the game, this place was awesome.  Drinks and the fact we did not want food keep it from being rated a Russell Wilson or Lamar Jackson, so Nectar's rating is:

DAK PRESCOTT.

Picks of the Week

So I took a big old fashioned hammering last week, but I don't care.  Why is that?  Because the Chicago Bears clinched the NFC North, knocked the Packers out of the playoffs, and moved to within 1 game of having a first round playoff bye.  I will take that!  Now, I just have to make up for the losses this week!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -11 v. Washington Racists
I do not like this spread, but I do like taking the home team on short weeks.  Washington's offensive line is mightily banged up, so I expect Jurrell Casey to have a monster game along the defensive line.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 v. Baltimore Ravens
Once again taking the home team on a short week.  I just don't think that Baltimore has enough offense to keep up with the Chargers, despite the fact that they have more than enough defense (1st overall, 1st in points allowed, 3rd in passing defense ad 3rd in rushing defense).  Los Angeles has too many weapons, starting with Philip Rivers.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.

Cleveland Browns -9 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Because why not?  The Browns have played some exciting football, and Cincinnati has not, at least not with Jeff Driskel at quarterback.  Cleveland's porous defense will not be as exposed going against Jeff Driskel.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Would you believe it if I told you that Tampa Bay Buccaneers had the 28th rushing attack in the league?  Of course you would - they are horrible.  Being a one-dimensional offense is going to allow the Cowboys front seven to tee off on Winston.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Detroit Lions
The Lions literally don't do anything well.  Minnesota's offense has been spectacular since they fired OC Mike DeFilippo.  Thanks for mentioning this last week Barsky.

New York Giants +9 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This spread is way too big to give to a team that has shown some life as of late.

Miami Dolphins -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Is the Cody Kessler era over yet?

Buffalo Bills +12 1/2 at New England Patriots
The one thing Blake Bortles taught us last year is that a quarterback than knows how to scramble can create havoc with the Patriots defense.

New York Jets +3 v. Green Bay Packers
The Jets have actually been playing fairly well since Sam Darnold's return.  They lost by a touchdown last week to a much better Houston Texans team, and they are at home against the Packers.  I will take the points.

Houston Texans +1 at Philadelphia Eagles
Houston's defense.  Yes, it seems like the magic that is Nick Foles has returned, but the Rams defense has not been playing particularly well this week.  Houston's is.

Chicago Bears -4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
I already have enough road favorites, so why not take another.  A lot at stake for the Bears in this game as they have the opportunity to secure a first round playoff bye with two wins (and a Rams loss).

Arizona Cardinals +14 v. Los Angeles Rams
So, it looks the Rams will actually get home field advantage and nothing about Arizona's play says they should stay in this game.  So, perhaps they lose by 13.

Seattle Seahawks +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
In Russell Wilson we trust and simply, Seattle needs this win more than Kansas City does.  Seattle keeps Kansas City's possessions low with an effective running game and takes a step closer to the playoffs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
At this stage, New Orleans can practically coast into the playoffs.  Of course they want to guarantee home field for the entire playoffs, which they can do with one win or one Rams loss and one Bears loss, but that doesn't mean the Saints aren't already looking ahead.  Steelers keep this one close.

Denver Broncos -3 at Oakland Raiders
Might as well end the week with another road favorite.

Big Bet
Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers
Taylor Heinicke?  Old Dominion isn't exactly known for producing star NFL quarterbacks.
I hate picking road teams for the Big Bet, especially road favorites, but nobody even knows who is quarterbacking for the Panthers.  And, perhaps Atlanta re-discovered its offense last week.

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  111-103-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($765)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($185)

Divisional Playoffs/Picks of the Week

A really good opening week to the playoffs.  Just a couple of plays from an extraordinary week.  Hopefully that continues.  Once again, for the playoffs and since there are fewer games, I will be making three bets per game: (1) Against the Spread; (2) Money Line; and (3) Over/Under.

The Money Line gives me the opportunity to make up big chunks of my deficit without extra bets, or extra money placed on the game.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, the Eagles are the home team and yes they are the number 1 seed.  Yes, the Falcons are the number 6 seed.  The Falcons are the reigning NFC champions, they did win 10 games this year and they are starting their starting quarterback.  This game features the seventh ranked defense (Eagles) and 8th ranked defense (Falcons) in the NFL  I will take Matt Ryan and the experience of the Falcons over the versatility of the Eagles offense.  24-21.

Atlanta Falcons -$150 at Philadelphia Eagles
Since I feel Atlanta will cover the spread, I have to take them with the money line, especially since Philly is only +$130, so not much extra incentive to take the Eagles here.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 40
Two really good defenses, but 40 really isn't a lot of points.  Like I said before, 24-12, Atlanta.

Tennessee Titans +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
Let's get this straight from the beginning:  there is no way Tennessee wins this matchup.  I just think that with the tough running of Derrick Henry, and Mariota making a few plays, the Patriots might only win by 10.

New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
This is really a suckers bet.  Not because I don't think New England will win, but because there is little or no value in making this bet, but since I am picking each games money line, I am definitely taking the Patriots.  No doubt they win.

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I am not sure Tennessee scores enough to get to the 48.  New England 28-18, maybe?

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville destroyed Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh earlier this year.  I do not expect that to happen again, but I also expect that the Jaguars defense can keep this game closer than the line.

Pittsburgh Steelers -$320 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $320 to win $100)
Not a value bet, but I feel good about Pittsburgh's chances to win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 41
Blake Bortles looks like he is playing like Blake Bortles.  This could end up being a 20-14 game.

New Orleans Saints +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota has had a great season, finishing 11th in total offense and 1st in total defense, but New Orleans is second in total offense, and they will put enough points on the board to cover this spread.

New Orleans Saints +$200 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $100 to win $200)
Yes, I think that New Orleans will win outright over the Vikings, so I will take the money line bet.

New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings OVER 46
Lots of points to be scored.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -$650 v. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has no chance to advance.

Last Week's Record: 7-5
Playoff Record - 7-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  131-129-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $200
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $200
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1010)

Super Bowl Roundtable and Picks of the Week

Since only one game remains - THE SUPER BOWL - I have combined the roundtable discussion with my picks column.  At the roundtable today is Sinickal, Hopps and myself.  We have invited Audio, Geo and Tony to join us to add a bit to the content.

Pepster:  Let's start off with the simplest question, who wins the Super Bowl?

Hopps:  Patriots.

Audio:  Patriots.

Geo:  Man do I hate the Patriots.

Sinickal:  I am rooting for Atlanta.

Pepster:  I have the Falcons.

Pepster:  What do you predict will happen Tony?

Tony:  A stomach ache from eating too fast!  Oh, and the Falcons because I hate New England.

Pepster:  So that leaves the total picks as 4 Falcons and 2 Patriots.  I will start by saying that the Patriots have the NFL leading scoring defense, but are 12th in passing yards.  Atlanta is the first ranked offense in terms of points, third in passing, fifth in rushing and 2nd in total yards.  New England does have the third ranked defense in total points scored, fourth in total yards.

Sinickal:  F'in nerd.

Pepster:  Haven't we established that, multiple times.

Sinickal:  So.

Pepster:  I am going with Atlanta because New England's defensive statistics are a bit overrated in that they did not play a top 10 offense all year.

Hopps:  Brady.

Sinickal:  Yes, the Patriots have Brady.

Geo:  Man, do I hate the Patriots.

Sinickal:  But the Falcons have Julio Jones.  That dude is ALWAYS open.

Audio:  If that happens today, it will only be in the first half.  If Atlanta's passing attack is successful, by halftime Donald Trump will likely deport JULIO Jones AND MOHAMMAD Sanu.

Hopps/Sinickal/Pepster:  *Spit takes*

All:  We will definitely be using that sometime during the game today.

Pepster:  But seriously ...

Hopps:  Bill.

Pepster:  Incredibly succinct Hopps, Brady and Bill.

Hopps:  Yep.

Geo:  Man, I hate the Patriots.

So basically, it is like this ...

Audio:  And, no matter which team wins, Kevin Durant will sign with them this summer.

All:  *Spit takes*

Pepster:  Definitely thank you for joining us today Audio.

Now, on to my picks ...

So last week was successful.  Four wins and two losses, the only losses being the point spread.  Neither underdog covered, but I did have both overs and the money line winners.  Not many picks this week, so I am adding one prop bet.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

Atlanta Falcons +3 v. New England Patriots
Atlanta was quietly the best team in the NFC this year (yes, better than Dallas), and a large part of it has to do with a vastly improved defense.  Atlanta can get to the quarterback without having to blitz, and they can line up Vic Beasley, Jr. anywhere on the line of scrimmage.  Each of New England's Super Bowl's have been really close.  Atlanta keeps this one close as well.

Atlanta Falcons +130 v. New England Patriot (Bet $100 to win $130)
Yes, Atlanta wins.  Malcolm Butler will have to face a lot better receivers than Seattle brought two years ago.  Plus, a chance to make up a bit more money by picking the underdog.

Atlanta Falcons v. New England Patriots (57 1/2) OVER
The first and fourth highest scoring teams in the league.  Is it so unbelievable to think that each will score 30?  I think not.

Luke Bryan's National Anthem (2:15) UNDER
Lady Gaga went over 2:22 last year, but only because she intentionally held the last note, took a breath, and then extended "brave" again.  (Interestingly enough, because of the extended notes, some Vegas books paid the over, while others paid the under).  Idina Menzel hit the over by 3 seconds two years ago.  Luke Bryan is a country singer.  He will not hit the over.

Last Week's Record:  4-2
Year-to-Date Record:  152-131-5
Playoff Record:  20-10
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $180
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): $10555
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($465)

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

What a week last week.  11-1, and the 1 is only because Houston scored a couple of touchdowns to hit the over.  I will take a lot of weeks like that one.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler, except on the money line bet.

No roundtable discussion this week, but Hopps has some interesting perspectives on today's games.

"The winners will be the Steelers and the Falcons.  Well, ... and really, really rich old white guys."

And, since Donald Trump is a supporter of the Patriots owner, coach and quarterback, and since Donald Trump has now succeeded Barack Obama as President of the United States the following quip is now actually true, "Orange IS the new black".

Onto the picks ...

Green Bay Packers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
Obviously Atlanta's defense is markedly better than last year, but do you really think that they are going to be able to shut down Aaron Rodgers to the point where they win by more than a touchdown.  I think this is going to be a close, high scoring game.  Green Bay has won 8 in a row, and Atlanta has won 5 in a row, so both teams come into this game clicking.  Should be a great game for viewers, especially those that like lots of passing.

Atlanta Falcons -215 v. Green Bay Packers (Bet $215 to win $100)
Green Bay has won 8 in a row, but what are the chances they win 9?  Atlanta has quietly been the best team in the NFC all season, despite the hype given to Dallas because of the Cowboys' record.  They can pass, they can run, and they can rush the passer.  I look for them to make the Super Bowl, and leave Eugene Robinson at home.

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (60) OVER
Who doesn't think this could end 41-37, or 37-31?  If both teams hit their averages in points scores, this over wins.  Plus, both quarterbacks throw for 300+ yards.

Pittsburgh Steelers +6 at New England Patriots
This game should also be close, as Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown should all have big games.  Brady and Blount are no slouches themselves, and may even win this game, but I don't think they will cover.  Pittsburgh's defense is 12th in total yards, and 10th in points, which should keep them close.

New England Patriots -240 v. Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $240 to win $100)
As close as Pittsburgh should keep this game, Tom Brady still finds a way to pull this one out.  The Patriots under Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are 9-2 against Pittsburgh, and they should continue that today.

Pittsburgh Steelers at at New England Patriots (49 1/2) OVER
Roethlisberger and Brady both throw for over 300 yards and have multiple touchdown passes each..

Last Week's Record:  11-1
Year-to-Date Record:  148-129-5
Playoff Record:  16-8
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1095
Playoff Winnings: (Losses): $875
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($685)