Picks of the Week - NFL Week 11

 

Well, back on track with a winning week from a record standpoint, but my "Big Bet" has become the bane of my existence this year, falling to 2-8!!!  That is horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots -12 1/2 v. New York Jets

Of course I am going to pick New England here, even though I do not like the 12 1/2 points.  Short week, so home team, and even though the Jets have a pretty good pass defense (8th overall), they are 26th in scoring defense, whereas the Patriots are 8th in scoring.  And now that they are finally starting to unleash Trayveon Henderson, I can see this being 31-14.

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders in Berlin, Germany

Mike McDaniels just looks like the type of guy that would win this game and then go clubbin' in Berlin.  By the way, the Moxy Obstanhof's hotel bar is open 24 hours a day!!!  True story.  Oh yeah, and no Jayden Daniels.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

I want to be soooo wrong here, but this Bears defense struggled at times against both Cincinnati and the New York Giants in the last two games - albeit both were wins.  Minnesota is a lot better than both of those teams.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Only, AND I DO MEAN ONLY, because this game is in the 1:00 time slot in Jacksonville.  I could make up some other reason, like Jacksonville is angry at themselves after last week's collapse against Houston, but even that doesn't make up for the talent difference between these two teams.  So, they only reason is getting points at home in the Eastern time zone in the 1:00 game against a Pacific time zone team.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Yes, Tampa Bay lost last week, but they lost to the Patriots which, it turns out, is a pretty damn good team.  The Bills just lost to the Dolphins.  And although we shouldn't read too much into just one game, the Bills haven't looked all that great, despite being 6-3.  At least, not great enough to give up 5 1/2 points.  They may win, but if they won 28-24, would that surprise anyone?

Green Bay Packers -7 1/2 at New York Giants

I have no idea how to evaluate this game, because it looks like Jameis Winston might be starting if Jaxson Dart doesn't clear concussion protocol.  Even if he does, still who knows.  I'll just take the favorite and hope for the best.

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I DO NOT WANT TO DO THIS.  But, with my record this year, I do not need to tempt the gambling gods.  I will not take a road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Besides, maybe Houston spent its mojo in last week's massive comeback against the Jaguars!

Carolina Panthers +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

So this came down to simply just taking the points.  But, if I had to analyze, I would just look at the defenses.  Carolina is 17th against the rush, and Atlanta is 29th against the rush - advantage:  Rico Dowdle, who is third in the NFL in rushing behind Jonathan Taylor and James Cook.  Atlanta does have the number 1 defense against the pass, but Carolina is a horrible passing offense anyway (30th).  So, I'll take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This is another case in which I am taking the points.  Cincinnati is coming off a bye week after its offense just had a phenomenal outing against the Chicago Bears defense behind Joe Flacco.  Pittsburgh has the worst defense in the league against the pass, and J'Marr Chase is second in receiving yards and the aforementioned Flacco has a 102.6 passer rating, with 11 TDs against on 2 INTs.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Damnit.  I hate take intra-divisional road favorites, but they do hit sometimes.  I'll take this one because it IS less than a field goal, and because Jacoby Brissett is starting for Arizona (which could be up-and-down).  But, with Marvin Harrison, Jr. out with his appendix (see what I did there?), his Brissett-led resurgence will not continue, so no level of Trey-McBrideness can defeat San Francisco alone, especially with the 20th ranked pass defense of Arizona defending the #1 passing offense in all of the NFL, which might - MIGHT - see the return of Ricky Pearsall! 

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two very evenly matched teams on both sides of the ball, fighting for the top of the division.  I am doing nothing more than taking points in the game that I think should be the best game of the weekend!

Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Another game that looks like a road intra-divisional favorite should win, as we keep waiting for Denver's offense to finally show up.  But, JK Dobbins' injury could hurt the Broncos, which may force them to open things up more in the passing game, which could play more to Bo Nix's strengths, and the myriad receivers they can run out against the Chiefs' defense.  Plus, I have another intra-divisional road favorite that I want to pick next.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Baltimore is cruising with a three-game win streak, while Browns fans are clamoring for Shadeur Sanders!  I wish this was 6 1/2 because of Cleveland's second rated total defense, but I still think Baltimore runs away with this one.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I do not want to watch this game.  I sure hope there are some good college basketball matchups.

Byes:  Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I get Detroit's rejuvenated offense with Dan Campbell's play-calling AND points?!  I'll take it, especially since Detroit averages over a touchdown more a game than Philadelphia!

A prolific offense getting points against a team with a lot of wins, but not a lot of points.

Last Week Record: 8-6

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 69-80

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-8

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week

 

Last week was brutal.  Just horrible.  So bad that I have not yet even performed the calculations.  Will do that at the end of this post, but I will be significantly down this year, in record and money.  Well, gotta get back up with some winning weeks, and Thursday night was a great start!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. Washington Commanders

Home team, short week.  Simple, simple choice, especially as the home team is really starting to put their team together.

Chicago Bears +5 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

I think Green Bay will win this.  This pick is not being made with my heart.  Love has been very inconsistent this year, and I hate taking road intradivisional favorites.

Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at New York Jets

The Jets are 25th against the rush on defense.  I expect to see a lot of Jonathan Taylor AND Anthony Richardson - with his legs.  And given that performance last week against the Cardinals, this team may be giving up on Aaron Rodgers.

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I know I said I hate road intradivisional favorites - and I do - but that doesn't mean that I won't pick them from time-to-time.  The Steelers have beaten the Ravens 10 straight times, however, Derrick Henry wasn't the running back in any of those games.

Minnesota Vikings -6 at Tennessee Titans

Tennessee's defense doesn't make sense; they are 1st in total defense and pass defense; but they are 29th in scoring defense.  This may be a close game until late, but I expect a Vikings win by about 10.

New Orleans Saints +1 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

I don't want to bet this game, I don't want to watch this game, and I don't want anything to do with this game.  Gimme the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +12 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are the best team in football the way they are playing.  But, the Jaguars last three games (all losses) have been by 5 to the Vikings, 5 to the Eagles, and 3 to the Packers.  Close losses to really, really good teams.

Las Vegas Raiders +7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Two competing betting rules:  Bet against the Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 slot, and don't bet a team playing on a short week. Since both of these are happening; I am taking the points, especially since it is over a touchdown.

New England Patriots +4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In almost every circumstance I would be betting the Rams here, as they have been playing much better - despite last week's loss to the Miami Dolphins - since Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have returned.  They have won 3 of their last 4, incouding wins over the Seahawks and Vikings.  But, they are on a short week having played Monday night, and they are playing near Boston in the 1:00 time slot.

Atlanta Falcons +2 at Denver Broncos

Strength on strength as Atlanta's offense (5th in passing, 5th overall) against Denver's defense (4th in scoring, 6th overall, 7th rushing), and the other side of the ball for both team's is mediocre.  The Falcons need this game after falling to the Saints last week.

San Francisco 49ers -6 v. Seattle Seahawks

This could be a really exciting game as the number 7 total offense (1st passing) in Seattle will be playing the number 2 offense (2nd passing, 4th rushing, 7th scoring) in San Fracnico.  The diference, the 49ers have the 5th best total defense and the Seahawks have the 26th.  And, Christian McCaffrey has a game under his belt.

Buffalo Bills -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

This is the game to watch to this week.  And my selection is more feel than research.  Buffalo just seems to be playing better, despite Kansas City being undefeated.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The Chargers are the most difficult team upon which to score, giving up only 13.1 piints per game, and they have a very balanced defense (9th against the run, and the pass, for 8th overall).  Ladd McConkey seems to be emerging as a pass-catching weapon, Justin Herbert hasn't really broken out yet this year.  Cincinnati scores (5th in the league) mainly because of their passing (4th in the NFL), but their defense is below average.  The Chargers at home in a prime time game.

Houston Texans -7 at Dallas Cowboys

It will take a lot, AND I MEAN A LOT, to pick the Cowboys going forward.  But, for starters, Dallas is 31st in the league in rushing AND rush defense.  Not a good combo.

Big Bet:

Jacksonville Jaguars +14 at Detroit Lions

The Lions are the best team in football the way they are playing.  But, the Jaguars last three games (all losses) have been by 5 to the Vikings, 5 to the Eagles, and 3 to the Packers.  Close losses to really, really good teams.

Fourteen points is a lot of points in the NFL, especially when a team receiving the points has been playing close games.  Yes, I realize that Mac Jones is the quarterback for Jacksonville, but I have been seeing this year that maybe, just maybe, Trevor Lawrence isn't that good?

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  69-76-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-4

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($865)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,220)

Picks of the Week

Lots and lots of injuries.  Burrow - out; Mark Andrews - out; DeShaun Watson - out.  And that is just in the NFC North.  Last week hurt a lot for a lot of teams, and for your boy, who had an OK week (I lied - a really good week), but not good considering the previous week was 11-3!  (Did I mention I went 11-3 two weeks ago?)  Anyway, this could be worse - like Florida State losing their quarterback, making it a serious question mark for them to make the playoffs this year, given they have a rivalry game and a conference championship game coming up.  But, that is college, and that is in the future.  This is for today - and it is the N F L!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Home team, short week, tie.  Ugh!

Chicago Bears +7 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Detroit wins this game, but it is the first game this season in which the Bears will be starting their entire starting offensive line.  That's right - it happened in Week 11.  Plus, with their starting running back - Khalil Herbert - and their starting quarterback - Justin Fields - back, this game seems ripe for a backdoor cover because Fields scrambles right for 30 yards on a two-minute drive to lose 31 - 24.

 

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

If you watch these teams, you definitely know Jacksonville is better, but, if you look at the statistics, they are remarkably similar.  What does that mean to me?  Taking almost a touchdown seems to be the play because this game should be close.

Green Bay Packers +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

If this game was being played in the 4:00 slot, I might bet differently, but, west coast teams traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot usually lose.  Except, Green Bay is central, so that is minimized.  What isn't minimized is the Chargers horrific defense - 32nd overall and 32nd in pass defense.  There are only 32 teams in the league.  Green Bay may not win, but they should cover.

Washington Commanders -8 1/2 v. New York Giants

This looks like a huge number given that Washington is 4-6.  But, the Giants offense is last the NFL is scoring, passing and total offense and the defense is not much better at 20th in scoring, 24th in rushing, 21st in passing, and 27th in total defense.  Washingotn's defense is not much better, but their offense is way, way better as Sam Howell has thrown for more yards than any other quarterback in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This line is ridiculously hard to predict.  First, the Raiders have played spirited ball under Interim Head Coach Antonio Pearce.  But, they are a west-coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot.  So, against my own better judgment, I will lay the 2 touchdowns and hope the track team returns with Achane back.

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Cleveland Browns

In a game that is likely to end 2-0; I will take the points.  

Dallas Cowboys - 10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

No offense in the NFL is clicking as well as the Cowboys, and to top that off they have the 2nd best total defense, the 2nd best passing defense, and the 4th best scoring defense.

San Francisco 49ers -13 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It seems like the bye week did San Francisco well.

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Los Angeles Rams

Both teams are remarkably similar on paper, with the Seahawks a little worse on defense.  But, I would take the points in this game no matter which team was reciving them, as it should be close.

New York Jets +8 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills are certainly not clikcing right now, and on top of that, this is a short week for them coming off their defeat Monday night at the hands of the Broncos.  I'll take more than a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

In a game that should be close, I will take the points, especially since Denver, like Buffalo above, is coming off a short week.  No Justin Jeffereson makes this harder for Minnesota, but the game should still be close.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid is 26-6 coming off a bye week (19-3 in the regular season).  And, he gets this game at home.  The Eagles are actually playing better this year, but nobody prepares his team better than Reid.  He is the Tom Izzo of the NFL.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons; Indianapolis Colts; New England Patriots; New Orleans Saints

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Houston Texans should win this game easily, even with the return of Kyler Murray.  The one thing Arizona does moderately well is run the ball (9th in the NFL), and Houston is 8th in rushing defense.  Somewhat negating that "strength", Housston should win easily.  I wanted to consider Dallas, but tehy are on the road.  Same with Seattle.  San Francisco just giving up too many points.

Last Week's Record:  8-4-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  83-58-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $510

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,160