Picks of the Week

 

Two pummeling weeks in a row, although this time mostly because of the Big Bet.  But seriously, who saw Cleveland covering the spread against Baltimore, much less winning outright.  And that Jayden Daniels Hail Mary, now forever remembered as the Tyrique Stevenson play!  Football, amirite?

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at New York Jets

I saw this one coming a mile away.  I even commented to several people that this line looked way too easy.  But I fell for it anyway.  Home team on a short week.  Home team on a short week.  Home team on a short week.  I feel like I need to Bart Simpson a chalkboard with this saying.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Denver's defense is really good; 7th against the run, 4th against the pass, 3rd in scoring defcnse and 3rd in total defense.  But, this is a Baltimore revenge game after last week's embarrasing loss.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes there is only 1 game difference between these two teams, and yes Cincinnati's strength (7th in passing offense) could be counteracted by Las Vegas' strenght (7th in passing defense, but Cincy scores a lot more than the Raiders, and the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playin gin the 1:00 slot.  So, I am just going to adhere to the football gambling rules and take the home team (although not sure where the falling back hour enters the equation).

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

The Titans defense is good to great, but their offense is pathetic.  The Patriots are just bad, but they get Drake Maye back, and that has to count for something.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Yes I am taking a road intradivisional favorite, but I think Carolina has proven time-and-time again just how bad they really are.  And, Derek Carr returns for New Orleans.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas' run game is truly horrific (last in the league) and now Ezekial Elliott is left home for disciplinary reasons.  Is Dallas falling apart, or will they rally? We don't really know, but Atlanta's pass offense is 6th in the NFL and Dallas's pass defense is 20th, so I will go with any rally falls short.

Buffalo Bills -6 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes Tuanigamatualepola Tagavialoa has a game under his belt after returning from the league's concussion protocol, but he was healthy and at home in Week 2's 31-10 loss to these same Bills, who have the 5th-highest scoring team in the NFL, and the 6th-best scoring defense.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback.  Could it have been a fluke?  Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco.  Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.

Washington Commanders -4 at New York Giants

If ever there was a game for a let down, this one could be it for the Commanders after last week's disastrous let down in the fourth quarter only to be victorious on the hail mary.  And, I would think that betting-wise, especially given that Washington is an intra-divisional road favorite; however, the Giants played Monday night, and thus are on a short week.  Washington continues its resurgence.

Chicago Bears +2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Bears have demoted Tyrique Stevenson for this game, but he will play.  Not sure how this team adjusts after that crazy ending last week in Washington, but ARizona is 26th against the pass, and D.J. Moore is due for a crazy game.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Philly has won 3 in a row after losing to Cleveland in week 6, and have had two blowouts on the road in the past two weeks.  They are getting hot, and Jacksonville - despite playing tough against Green Bay - is not.  The Jaguars are 31st in defensing the pass, and Philadelphia has all of its weapons - including A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Two teams that I absolutely cannot figure out for the life of me.  Both could end up 6-11 or 7-10; or in the second round of the playoffs.  Crazy.  Just taking the points.

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

So, a third intradivisional favorite makes me nervous; but Detroit really looks like the best team in football right now.  The offense is humming (4th overall and 1st in scoring); the defense - although not great overall (20th) - has its strengths (1st in 3rd down percentage; 5th in rush defense and 8th in scoring defense).  Green Bay also has a prodigious offense (5th in rushing, 6th total offense and scoring offense, and 8th in passing offense), but their defense is way more pedestrian.  Not bad, just pedestrian.  Plus, with Jordan Love playing but perhaps at less than 100%, the Lions take a big jump toward home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

A move to Joe Flacco could help jump start this team, given the Colts a passing threat to help make room for Jonathan Taylor.  And the fact that this change came at the demand of several of the team's leaders themselves, means the rest of the team could be rallying behind Flacco (like Cleveland last year?).  Not sure they win, but they should keep this close.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a lot of points to give up.  A LOT.  And, if I told you the team with the 2nd best passing offense, the 4th  best scoring offense, the 5th best total offense and the 10th best rushing offense was playing on Monday - you would agree that the Chiefs are a great offense.  Except those rankings are the Buccaneers. But, and it's a big BUT - like Kim Kardashian level - that was when Tampa Bay had receivers.  Without receivers, this KC defense (2nd against the rush, 2nd in total defense, and 5th in scoring defense) will be too suffocating at home.

Big Bet:

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback.  Could it have been a fluke?  Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco.  Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.

I know this sounds crazy, but I like to pick home teams either getting points, or giving just a few, so this game fits the bill.  And, we cannot view this team as the Cleveland Browns from most of the rest of the year as DeShaun Watson is not playing.  He was the biggest hinderance on this offense.  Look for two of Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy to approach (or hit) 100 yards receiving with Winston flinging and the Chargers' defense focused on a healthier Nick Chubb.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $90

Professional Football Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 13 of the NFL season.

Game of the Week

San Francisco 49ers 48 - New Orleans Saints 46.  I finally have seen a game that compares to the 1982 divisional playoff game in which the Miami Dolphins defeated the San Diego Chargers 41-38. That game featured two separate 400 yard passers (Dan Fouts 406 and Don Strock 403), and the offenses were virtually unstoppable.  This game had both quarterbacks (Drew Brees and Jimmy Garappolo) throw for 349 and both team's leading rushers (Raheem Mostert and Latavius Murray rush for 69 yards.  Both teams also had a receiver go well over 100 yards; for San Francisco it was Emmanuel Sanders with 157 and 1 touchdown and for New Orleans it was Michael Thomas with 134 and 1 TD - on 11 receptions.  Of course the game ended on a last minute drive with Drew Brees throwing a game-winning TD pass to Tre'Quan Smith with :53 left on the clock (but the 2 point conversion failed.}  Except it didn't.  San Francisco took the ensuing possession down the field, aided by a 39 yard George Kittle reception in which he plowed through the Saints defense and was only tackled by his facemask - resulting in 15 more yards.  The ever-reliable Robbie Gould kicks the winning 30 yard field goal as time expired.

Best Team Performance

Tennessee Titans.  Not only playing themselves into a potential wildcard spot, the Titans are now challenging for the AFC South title, a division in which they play the Houston Texans twice in the next (last) 3 games.  Tennessee handily defeated fellow (former) playoff contender Oakland 42-21, led by the dual threat of Ryan Tannehill's 391 yards passing and Derrick Henry's 103 yards rushing.  

Least Impressive Team Performance

Jacksonville Jaguars.  I have rarely seen a team just blatantly give up as bad as this team.  They lost 45-10 at home to the Los Angeles Chargers and made Philip Rivers look like he only had 3 kids.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Jameis Winston, QB - Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Winston was 33-45 for 456 yards and 4 TDs (but 3 Interceptions) as the Buccaneers defeated the Indianapolis Colts 38-35.  In most cases this would have been the game of the week.  Also in most weeks Austin Ekeler of the Los Angeles Chargers would have won this award, except he played the Jaguars.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans.  Huh?  How does this make sense?  Well, he had one of the most important defensive plays of the season.  Yes, Joey Bosa's tackle in the backfield on Alvin Kamara was singularly impressive, but Ryan Tannehill's square tackle and drive to the ground hit on Maurice Hurst after throwing an interception that Hurst returned 55 yards, with a convoy, is the type of play that fires up a defense around a quarterback that previously had questions marks.  This Titans team is now - if they weren't before - solidly behind Tannehill both as a QB and as a football player.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Jason Sanders, K - Miami Dolphins.  Sanders was 7-8 on field goals (Yes, 8 attempts), including a 53 yarder, as the Dolphins fell to the Jets 22-21.  Honorable Mention to Deonte Harris of the New Orleans Saints who had 194 return yards on 5 kickoff returns and 2 punt returns, constantly switching the field with his dynamic runs.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Everton.  With a new manager at the helm, Everton looked very impressive, and played extremely hard, and well, putting pressure on Chelsea at every turn as Everton won 3-2 to escape the bottom of the table and move up to 14.  Relegation is no longer an issue as long as Everton continues to play with this type of fire and passion.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Diogo Jota, F - Wolverhampton.  Jota's first-half brace, including the equalizer in the 44th minute, allowed Wolverhampton to steal a point on the road and remain near the top of the table in 6th place, losing out of 5th place by only 3 goals to Manchester United, who also had a big weekend defeating Manchester City at the Etihad.

Goat of the Week

The entire Jacksonville Jaguars.  They have quit.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Kepa Arrizabalaga, GK - Chelsea.  Let in a soft goal which started the scoring for Everton, and then a horrible pass out of the goal to Kurt Zouma was intercepted which led to an easy goal, Everton's third.  Second really bad goal scored by a Chelsea opponent late in the game because of a bad pass out of the back by Kepa.

Hit of the Week

Ryan Tannehill on Maurice Hurst.  It was almost as if he had been playing linebacker his entire life.

Breakthrough Performance

Tyler Higbee, TE - Los Angeles Rams.  We have seen flashes from Higbee this season, but as the backup we have not seen how valuable he can be.  Earning the start this week against Seattle, Higbee caught 7 balls for 116 yards, and definitely opens up the field for the Rams' other weapons as Los Angeles won 28-12.

Finally

Ryan Tannehill, QB - Tennessee Titans.  This is the type of performance the Miami Dolphins wanted out of Tannehill in the past few years.  Tannehill was 21-27 for 391 yards and 3 TDs, to go 6-1 as a starter for Tennessee.

Impact Injury

Roquon Smith, LB - Chicago Bears.  There were a lot of injuries this week, but none worse that Smith's, who tore his pectoral muscle while trying to make a tackle on Ezekial Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys.  Smith, the Bears' leading tackler, will be missed as Chicago ends the season with Green Bay, Kansas City and Minnesota.

Team Rising

Tennessee Titans.  Now at 8-5, the Titans have pulled into a tie atop the AFC South with the Houston Texans, two games ahead of the Indianapolis Colts (with three to play).  As stated earlier, Tennessee and Houston play twice in the last three games, including in Nashville this weekend.

Team Falling

Carolina Panthers.  In a free-fall.

Best Teams

(All teams will be ranked by record, even if teams with more losses may be better than a team with fewer losses, since Bill Parcells always said that you are what your record says.  The inverse is true for the Worst Teams rankings.) (Yes, I know that you could have a worse record and be better, see e.g., Baltimore Ravens, but we are working off record.)

1. Baltimore Ravens

2. San Francisco 49ers

3. New Orleans Saints 

4. Green Bay Packers
5. Seattle Seahawks

Worst Teams

32. Cincinnati Bengals

31. New York Giants

30. Washington Racists

29. Miami Dolphins

27b. Detroit Lions
27a.  Arizona Cardinals 

Note - The Lions and Cardinals have identical 3-9-1 records, and actually tied each other when they played, so they might as well be tied on this list.

Middle Teams

15. Philadelphia Eagles
16. Indianapolis Colts
17. Cleveland Browns
18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Note - all of these "middle teams" have sub-par records of 6-7, along with Dallas and Oakland, which I rank lower right now.

Last Week's Trivia Question/Answer

Last Entry's Trivia Question was:

Earlier this year, Frank Gore passed Curtis Martin for fourth place in the all-time career rushing yards.  He is now closer to third place than he is to fifth place Martin.  Who is in third place, and how many yards behind third place is Gore?

Answer:  Barry Sanders - at the time I wrote the question.  Gore has since passed Sanders and leads Sanders by 37 yards.  He is 1,420 yards behind Walter Payton.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

6. Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs.  By record, this isn't a special game to watch, except for the fact that Denver has been better, and more exciting, in the two games that Drew Lock has started.  So, that makes this game a potential offensive explosion.  

5. Buffalo Bills v. Pittsburgh Steelers.  This game may be traditionally boring, but it is incredibly important for the playoff race, as right now, these two teams hold the two AFC wildcard spots.  This game is incredibly important.

4. Minnesota Vikings v. Los Angeles Chargers.  Minnesota is only 1 game behind the Green Bay Packers for the division lead, but 2 ahead of the Chicago Bears with 3 to play.  Green Bay and Chicago play this week, and Minnesota and Green Bay play next week, with the Bears and Vikings closing out the season.  This game is incredibly important for Minnesota.  The Chargers looked great last week, albeit against the Jaguars.  Can they keep it up?

3. Arsenal v. Manchester City.  Manchester City is in a bit of a rut and Arsenal look much improved as of late.  This game is vital for Manchester City to try to gain ground in the table on Liverpool, and important for Arsenal if they think they can make Europa League next year.

2. Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers.  The greatest rivalry in football is important as Green Bay shoots for a bye and possibly home field advantage while the Bears are barely hanging on for a possible playoff spot.

1. Houston Texans v. Tennessee Titans. The resurgent Titans have tied the Texans for the division lead.  This is the first of two times these teams will play in the final three games of the season, and would obviously give the winner a leg up for the division crown.

Trivia

Phillip Rivers has 63 career losses of 3 points or less in his career.  He is tied with this other current starting NFL quarterback.  Who is it?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

My usual crew was somewhat busy, so instead of a sports bar, I headed out to a cigar bar of mine that has televisions - Sunset Cigar Lounge in Jupiter, Florida.  Not sportscentric at all, but on Sundays they did show 3 games, with the sound on the New Orleans - San Francisco game, which turned out to be the best one.  Not super crowded, mostly regulars, but all really nice - albeit interesting people.  The bar/cigar tenders Dawana and Tiffani are always fabulous, and given that it wasn't busy - super attentive (which they usually are anyway). I had never been there on a Sunday before so I do not know if this is usual, but they had several pizzas and pastas, which was free for whomever wanted it - that was a nice perk, although I did not partake because I had already eaten.  Also because I wanted a lowkey day, I only drank Bud Light, but the whiskey selection is great for as small a bar as it is, and it has Clase Azul tequila, one of the bellweathers of the tequila world as far as I am concerned.  I had a couple of light, easy Padron cigars with my day, and it was great.

Now, the bar did have to call the cops on an unruly customer, as she was getting incredibly out of control yelling and cursing at other customers, that were all regulars, and the cops escorted her out at about 2:00 p.m. (she came from somewhere else already drunk), but other than that, it was a good place to watch the games.  Being a smaller location, everybody was talking and arguing the games with everyone else, which was fun.

The only real knock is that they don't have all the games - which isn't really a knock on the place as much as my choice of venue -but it does get downgraded as a sports bar

Sunset Cigar Lounge
251 South U.S. Highway 1
Jupiter, FL 33477
561/203-2096

Final Rating: Philip Rivers - a little old and flawed, but still very consistently good with occasional greatness.

The Ole College Try

Welcome to the return of the almost weekly perspective of college football. For those that don't remember, I write this column as if every player is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Why? Because it is ridiculously ludicrous that the networks, including the World Wide Leader, nay, especially the World Wide Leader, emphasize the Heisman Trophy race this early in the season. After all, who knew who Johnny Manziel was at this time last year.  Consider this my sarcastic homage to stupid reporting.

Heisman Watch

Quarterback Edition

Favorite - Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville - The legitimate front runner for this award after last season ended, did not disappoint against Ohio, throwing for  355 yards and 5 TDs, all while showcasing his pinpoint accuracy.

Tahj Boyd - Clemson - Absolutely shined during the game of the week; 270 yards and 3 TDs passing, 2 more TDs rushing - all against the defense that gave Alabama all that it could handle in the SEC Championship game.

Rising - Jameis Winston - Florida State - The number 1 ranked quarterback recruit out of high school showed why in his first start.  The red shirt freshman was 25-27 for 356 and 4 TD, while also running in another score.

Dark Horse - Vernon Adams - Eastern Washington - The sophomore quarterback led the upset over #25 Oregon State by passing for 411 yards and 4 TDs, and rushing for 107 yards and another 2 TDs.

Falling - Football Johnny - Texas A & M - Because some voters will hate his attitude.

Running Back Edition

Favorite - Duke Johnson - Miami - 186 yards rushing with a TD, and another 38 yards on one reception.His big test is this week against a generally stout Florida Gators defense.

Todd Gurley - Georgia - 154 yards and 2 TDs on only 12 carries.

Rising - Mike Davis - South Carolina - 12 carries or 115 yards and a long 75 yard TD run.  Could the Ole Ball Coach be turning into a running team?

Sleeper - Jordan Hall - Ohio State - Yeah, right.  Like since when is an Ohio State running back a sleeper.  Ever since Braxton Miller was given all of the pre-season, hype, that's when.  Hall finished with 159 yards.  Let's see if he can keep that up against real teams.

Wide Receiver Edition

Rashad Greene - FSU - 8 catches for 126 yards, almost all of them in the first half.  Despite playing opposite the more physically gifted Kelvin Benjamin, Greene seems to be Winston's favorite target.  If Winston is close to what he was against Pittsburgh, Rashad Greene will have a huge season.

Jordan Matthews - Vanderbilt - 10 catches for 178 yards and a TD, despite being Vanderbilt's only real offensive weapon.

Jared Abbrederis - Wisconsin - 2 catches for 122 yards and 2 TDs.  Now that is efficiency.

Defensive Edition

3.  Kyle Fuller - CB - Virginia Tech - Fuller looked like he is the real deal, having an interception and making several other fantastic passes defensed in the Hokies loss to Alabama.  Alabama only scored 2 offensive touchdowns.

2.  Anthony Harris - S - Virginia - Very few defensive players had a game like Harris; 11 tackles, 1 sack and an interception.

1.  Khalil Mack - LB - Buffalo - Very few players had a game like Harris, except Buffalo's Mack, who had 9 tackles, 2 1/2 sacks and 1 INT, which he returned for a touchdown.

Player to Watch

Christion Jones - WR/Ret - Alabama - Scored three touchdowns; 1 receiving, 1 punt return and 1 kick-off return, and was the difference maker for Alabama over Virginia Tech.  And, he managed to stand out on an offense that includes A.J. McCarron, T.J. Yeldon and Amari Cooper - among others.

My New Favorite Player

Baker Mayfield - QB - Texas Tech - The walk-on Freshman quarterback - yes, you read that correctly, WALK-ON FRESHMAN, started for the Red Raiders leading them to a 41-23 victory over SMU and finished the game 43-60 for 413 yards and 4 TDs, and ran in another score.  He finished the game 15-18 for 175 yards in the fourth quarter.  I guess he was not overwhelmed by the situation.  He apparently was also telling jokes to the other Tech players in the huddle during the opening drive.  Did I mention that he is a WALK-ON FRESHMAN.  I imagine Kliff Kingsbury will find him a scholarship at some point.

Players of the Week

This section will be more week specific as the season goes forward, but for the first week, it is hard to differentiate the players of the week from the players of the season, as the season has only lasted 1 week.

5.  Teddy Bridgewater - Louisville - See above

4.  Christion Jones - Alabama - See above

3.  Jameis Winston - FSU - See above; would have been higher if the game was against somebody other than Pittsburgh.

2.  Khalil Mack - Buffalo - Very impressive performance generally, but even more so considering it occurred against Ohio State.

1.  Vernon Adams - Eastern Washington - A victory of ranked FCS Oregon State will do that for you,

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Malcolm Mitchell - WR - Georgia - The Bulldogs leading returning receiver tore his ACL and is out for the season.  His injury occurred while attempting to celebrate a touchdown with a full body bump - a touchdown that he did not even score himself.  He landed awkwardly, and will not play again this season.

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Frank Beamer - Virginia Tech - Beamer is here not so much because of anything specific, but as the head coach that supposedly stresses special teams harder than any other coach, how can he let Alabama run away with the game through two special teams touchdown return.  If not for those scores, Virginia Tech is right in that game with Alabama.  Perhaps it is time that Beamer hired a special teams coordinator, and not try to do everything himself.

Predicted BCS Championship Game Matchup
Alabama v. Ohio State - For those that forget, this is not what I think the game should be, but rather, at this point, what I think the game will be.  Way too early to take this seriously though.

Rant(s) of the Week
No real rant at this point - BECAUSE COLLEGE FOOTBALL IS BACK.

Under Performance of the Week

Georgia - Yes they were away; yes they played a quality opponent and yes they did not play particularly bad.  However, for the team that is supposed to be the most likely to knock off Alabama in the SEC, they sure had their national championship aspirations undercut really early in the season.

Last Week's Trivia Answer

N/A this week.

Trivia Question of the Week

None - why?  Because I forgot that I did trivia questions, so I forgot to have a good one for this week.  Hopefully I will remember next week.

Match up(s) to Watch

3. Syracuse v. Northwestern - OK, so I don't really want to watch this football match up, but this is one helluva match up for the school's sports broadcasting departments.

2. South Carolina v. Georgia - Georgia needs this win badly after the Clemson loss, and South Carolina looks to  bury Georgia in the SEC East standings early.  A Georgia win keeps them in the SEC (which means national) championship hunt.  Should be a hard hitting game.

1. Florida v. Miami - In what could be the last game in an intrastate rivalry in a long time, Miami has their best chance against Florida in a long time.  With Duke Johnson, Miami has the best single player on the field.  Can he play against the Gators vaunted defense?  Can Florida find their offensive identity against a defense that struggled much of last year, but looks to be much improved?  Can Stacy Coley hold onto the football?  All important questions to be decided at noon on Game Day.  Oh yeah - and I will be in attendance.  Did I mention that I will be in attendance?  Because I will.