Picks of the Week - Week 4

 

I need to stop travelling, as it is obviously impacting my pics.  Also out-of-town this weekend, but hopefully we can turn this season around, as last week was horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

I hated this pick (for good reason), but home team on a short week and I hate taking road intra-divisional favorites.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin)

A bad offense (28th) and great defense (6th) in Minnesota versus a horrible offense (30th) AND defense (29th) in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

More than 2 touchdowns?  Just a bit too much for my blood to give up.

Tennessee Titans -+7 1/2 at Houston Texans

I am doing this strictly for the points, but I am concerned that maybe this is what Houston needs to right itself after a bad year plus.  Still taking Tennessee - again just for take the points.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions

When is Cleveland going to give Dillon Gabriel a try?  Should be soon.  But, taking them here because Quinshon Judkins could be great, and because Detroit played Monday night.

Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I feel that defensive coordinators have figured out Michael Penix, Jr.  Atlanta's defense is legit so far this year (2nd overall and 1st in pass defense), but Marcos Mariota is a proven veteran.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.

Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots

Neither of these teams are good, and New England is better at passing the eye test (especially at QB), but 5 1/2 points?  I'll take them.

New York Giants +6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This may seem unorthodox, but hear me out here:  First, maybe the Giants get a bit of a jolt from Jaxson Dart; and second, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east to play in the 1:00 window.  I will take the Giants, reluctantly.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Ben Johnson got a taste of winning last week, and although this will not be easy with 3 more starters out for the Bears, most of their playmakers on offense will be there, plus the get a look at rookie Ozzy Trapilo on the offensive line replacing Darnell Wright.  Despite a 1-2 start, Chicago is 9th in scoring offense, and 4th in third-down conversions.  That should be enough.

 

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Purdy returns.  That has to be enough to put the Niners over the top.  Especially after starting 3-0.  Can they go 4-0?  I think they win outright.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

The Colts are a surprise 3-0, for sure, but unlike Philly their stats back it up.  Number 1 total offense (4th passing/3rd rushing) and number 5 total defens (8th passing/7th rushing).  They may not get to 4-0, but they very well should cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Nothing about the way they have played this year tells me that KC can keep this close, except that Baltimore has the 31st total defense (31st passing and 30th rushing), and they are on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

The talent differential in this game is enormous.  And we saw last week is that Dallas is BAD!

New York Jets +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

This game is just awful.  Horrible.  Give me points.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

I am super-leery of giving up more than a touchdown, but Cincy has the worst total offense in the NFL (27th in passing and 32nd in rushing), AND their defense stinks.  Denver, despite being 1-2, may have started to click this season despite losses the last two weeks.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.

I looked at Chicago (on the road and too many injuries), Green Bay (giving up too many points), and Washington Commanders.  I am going to take the Buccaneers to win outright on the road, although the 3 1/2 points looks pretty good.

Last Week Record:  5-11

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  21-27

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-2

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($875)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,050) 

Picks of the Week

 

This season has already been incredibly difficult, and not just for those of us who bet based on the point spread.  Ya'll really need to check on your friends that just pick winners/losers - they are not all right.  A .500 week, not great but I did win my big bet, so in the black for the week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -5 at New York Giants

My regular readers know that I hate picking a road intra-divisional favorite, and I hate picking the road team on a short week even more.  Why did I pick Dallas, then?  Well, the spread started at 6 1/2 and moved down to 5.  That means lots of money coming in on the Giants.  When that happens, go the opposite.  Didn't matter as this game pushed.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Bears offense may be generally unproductive, byt the Rams defense equally stinks.  This should provide an opportunity for the Bears to open some things up on offense and if unsuccessful, let the 7th ranked defense hold the Rams, especially since the Bears are second in 3rd down percentage defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

The NFL's number 1 defense versus the NFL's 31st ranked defense.  George Pickens with 2 touchdowns.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is expected to be active, but is he really going to be ready to play?

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is on a short week, and this Jaguars team may go down as one of the all-time disappointments in NFL history.  At least they didn't pay Trevor Lawrence recod-type money!  (Oh, never mind!)

New Orleans Saints +3 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has been a very good 1-2 team; and the Saints had one of the most impressive wins when they decimated Dallas in week 2.  This game likely turns on whether Alvin Kamara plays or not, but since he is playing right now - albeit questionable - gotta take these points.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are going to disappint until they learn: (1) To get the  ball more to Mike Evans; and (2) play Bucky Irving more in the run game.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Denver Broncos +8 at New York Jets

The Jets we expected to see under Aaron Rodgers showed up last week, and could be areal contender.  I just don't like the 8 points, and Denver dismantled Tampa Bay last week, and play Pittsburgh tight the week prior.  This could be really close.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Rookie quarterback playing in his first short week, and on the road.

San Francisco 49ers -10 v. New England Patriots

I despise taking double digit favorites, but San Francisco is coming off two straight upset losses, so they need to really take control of a game.  In addition, this Patriots team stinks.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am a big Antonio Pierce fan, and I belive him when he says he is not going to put up with the effort the Raiders gave last week; except then Davante Adams went out with a hanstring injury, and I am not sure where Las Vegas gets its offensive energy and emotion.  Cleveland is not very good either, but they overmatch the Raiders.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Justin Herbert's injury, and even though he is playing he could be hobbled.  But I also know that the Chargers have the 7th-best rushing offense in the NFL and the 6th best total defense in the NFL.  And yes, the Chiefs are 3-0, but they have not been that impressive of a 3-0 team.  Even if I win, I think this game is within a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

To me, Buffalo has been the most impressive team in the NFL this year.  But, Baltimore should be more motivated, as they NEED this game.  Yes, this early in the season and they NEED a win.  Plus, Buffalo is on a short week, of which I expect the Ravens to take advantage.

Tennessee Titans +2 /2 v. Miami Dolphins

I know what Tennessee brings to the table this year; and it isn't good.  What I don't know is what Tyler Huntley brings to the table this year.  When there is uncertainty like this, I take the points.

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Two legitimate playoff teams clashing on Monday night.  A great time to watch football.  I am taking the points with Seattle primarily because Seattle is the third-best passing offense in the league, and Detroitis 19th in pass defense.  And yes, Detroit has a great offense (4th in total offense; 4th in rushing offense; 7th in passing offense), but Seattle is second in total defense (1st in passing defense).  I'll take the points.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Although I am not sold on Carolina overall, for my big bet I like to take a home team whenever possible, and if they are getting points even better.  I thought about the Chargers for that reason, but I don't like betting big against Patrick Mahomes.  I also considered Philadelphia, but that violates both of my preferences.  Five points is a decent amount, so I make this bet, hope and believe that Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson provide the Red Rifle with as much support as he needs, and trust that Cincy's short week hurts them.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  21-25-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $70

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($200)

 

Picks of the Week

 

A decent bounce-back week last week.  Not great, but finished in the positive, so I will take it!  Games start early this weekend because the Jaguars have a home game in London.  I imagine there are a lot of Londoners that have no idea why Blake Bortles isn't in the Hall of Fame, much less not starting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Home team on a short week.  This was a disaster.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons (London)

Home game for Jacksonville.  Atlanta's best feature is their running game, 10th in the NFL.  Jacksonville stops the run (7th in the NFL).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Denver Broncos

Imagine giving up 70 points one week and being favored on the road the next week.  By the way Dolphins fans, a field goal last week would not have broken the NFL single-game points record.  I know they kept saying 72 was the recod on television, but the Bears beat the Washington Racists 73-0 in the 1940 NFL championship game, behind the immortal Sid Luckman.

Houston Texans +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston has the 6th best passing offense in the NFL.  Pittsburgh is 22nd in pass defense.  T.J. Watt may get a couple of sacks, but the back-end of this defense will likely give up over 300+ yards to C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell and company.

Los Angeles Rams +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

I hate that Indianapolis is in the Eastern time zone, because the betting rules say take the Eastern time zone team in this slot.  Also the Rams played Monday night.  Everything about this matchup screams Indianapolis.  But seriously, how are the Colts 2-1?  The have the 20th ranked offense and the 22nd ranked defense.  Los Angeles meanwhile is 1-2 with the 9th best offensive team and the 7th best defensive team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Two 0-3 teams, and not the worst game on the board. See Denver v. Chicago.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay played Monday night, so this is a short week for them.  They also have the 27th ranked offense and 23rd ranked defense.  And those stats come from having played the Bears.

Washington Commanders +9 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are better.  Wayyyy better.  But this is a big number and Pilly is playing on a short week.  I'll take the points.

Buffalo Bills -3 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody is all over the Dolphins because of their 70-spot last week againt Denver, but you cannot carry-over points.  Yes the Dolphins are electric offensively, 1st in total offense, scoring offense, passing offense, and rushing offense, but those stats are incredibly skewed due to the Denver game.  Buffal is 2nd in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, and 3rd in passing defense.  Miami's offense and Buffalo's defense are both sturdy.  But, Miami's defense is 20th in scoring, 20th in passing, 24th in rushing and 24th in total defense, whereas Buffalo's offense is 2nd in scoring, 7th in rushing and 8th in total offense.  Buffalo's offense is better than Miami's defense, so I will take the Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens,

The Browns outrank the Ravens in every offensive category (total, scoring, rushing, and passing.)  Plus, their defense is E-LITE:  2nd in rushing defense, 1st in third down conversion percentage, 1st in passing defense, 1st in total defense and 1st in scoring defense.  Give me the Browns.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

We do not know who will start at quarterback for the Raiders.  We do know it won't be Jimmy Garoppolo (consussion protocol).  It will be Brian Hoyer or Aiden McConnell.  I'll take the Chargers and their second ranked offense.

 

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. New England Patriots

Bounce back game.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers 

San Francisco may still win easily, but this is a lot of points in a divisional game.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at New York Jets

Kansas City is 1-0 in ass-whippings in game in which Taylor Swift attends.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Giants

Do we really have to have two prime time New Jersey games this weekend?  Seattle's defense is practically worthless (30th total, 31st passing, 29th scoring), but the Giants offense is equally worhtless, (24th rushing, 28th passing, 28th total, 31st scoring).  Put it this way, the Bears average more points than the Giants do.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

I usually don't like selecting road teams for my "Big Bet", much less road teams giving points, but nothing about this Tennessee team excites me, and I really think Cincinnati started to clikc in the second half last week.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  25-20-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $435