Slightly in the black (now a 3-week winning streak), and that is how we have to chip away at the deficit. All 16 teams in action this week, so some room to really move up (or down!).
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Los Angeles Rams +3 at San Francisco
Glad I picked it, but boy was this game brutal.
Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
This game is really difficult to pick because this Cowboy team could either come out firing because of the tragic way this team lost on Monday night (blocked punt fumble recovered by Cincinnati for a first down), or just pack the season away. I would ordinarily think the latter given no real chance at the playoffs for them, except Carolina is worst against the run in the entire NFL and Rico Dowdle has show some spark running.
Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
I haven't had a strong feeling about a back-door cover in a long time, but the facts that this Chiefs defense is really good, but that somehow they generally play really close games. Perhaps a late Jameis Winston TD to lose 24-20.
Miami Dolphins +3 at Houston Texans
Nico Collins being back is a game-changer, but the team - other than the Dallas game - has not been as dominating as it should be. I think last week we finally got to see the true Tyreek Hill after a long drought (10-115-1).
Washington Commanders -7 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
What is a Jake Haener?
Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
I should pick Tennessee here because they have the #1 ranked defense against the pass (and second overall) and because Cincinnati played Monday night - but that just isn't how I see it. Burrow throws for close to 300 and Cincinnati cruises.
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 v. New York Jets
We are just weeks away from Aaron Rodgers joining the leadership of the Department of Health and Human Services, and we expect him to care about the Jaguars? Also, Mac Jones has historically played really well against the Jets.
New York Giants +16 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
It is almost absurd that an NFL team is giving 16 1/2 points while at home, and I still seriously considered taking the Ravens.
Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?
Denver Broncos -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Anthony Richardson's QB Rating is 64.3, primarily because his completion percentage is 47.44%.
Buffalo Bills +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions
The two best teams in the league right now, so I will take the points. That is all I am basing this pick on. Getting points.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Los Angeles Chargers
This is essentially a playoff game, as both teams are in playoff contention, and like the Bills pick above, I will take the points. Plus, we do not know what we might get out of an injured Justin Herbert today.
Arizona Cardinals -6 v. New England Patriots
Arizona is just one of those teams that play great when you don't expect them to, and they play bad when you expect them to play well. I don't know, so I'll just expect them to win here, and I hope they cover.
Seattle Seahawks +2 1/5 v. Green Bay Packers
Seattle recently defeated Aaron Rodgers, so now I expect them to take out his former team. Honestly, I think this Seattle team is way better than most people think, and they are getting points at home. I'll take it.
Minnesota Vikings -7 v. Chicago Bears
Yes, the Bears have played the NFC Central extremely close, having recently covered against the Vikings at home. This isn't the same as the Bears have fired Matt Eberflus and the team looked absent last week. Vikings at home.
Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
Desmond Ridder will feature prominently, and not for the Falcons.
Big Bet:
Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?
I would like this better if Pittsburgh at home, even though the spread then woul dbe like 3 or 2 1/2, but I still like this pick. Two of the best total defenses in the NFL (Philly 1; Pittsburgh 5), but unless the Eagles get more balance on offense (1st in rushing, 31st in passing), then Pittsburgh's defense can just key on Barkley. No George Pickens hurts, but likely not that much as Wilson likes to spread things around anyway.
Record
Last Week's Record: 7-4-2
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 100-99-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 95
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($685)
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