Picks of the Week - NFL Week 17

 

I followed up my worst week of the year with ...  MY ABSOLUTE BEST.  Seriously, a dream week.  Not only did I go 12-4 all while correctly picking my Big Bet, I also went 15-1 in my confidence pick league, losing only the Detroit Lions pick, who succumbed to the Pittsburgh Steelers on one of the more unusual endings you will ever see.  Correctly ruled by the officiating crew, too - Damnit!)

Three Christmas games tomorrow, with more Saturday/Sunday/Monday action to follow!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Washington Commanders +7 v. Dallas Cowboys

By now, this should be a familiar refrain:  "Home Team on a Short Week!"  But, we get to couple this one with another:  "Home Underdog in an Intra-Divisional Game!"  And, although the Commanders have been underwhelming this year, they played Philly close for a while last week, and Dallas' 30th-ranked defense more than makes up for its 2nd-ranked offense.

Minnesota Vikings +7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I do not want to make this pick.  AT ALL!  I feel compelled because each of the Thursday games the home team is an intra-divisional underdog.  So, I have to pick them all because I am statistically likely to win at least two of the three, no matter what, and me trying to cherry-pick which home team won't cover leads to more mistakes.  But, if I did, this would be THAT game.

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Houston Texans

I seriously contemplated taking the Texans and their hot streak (won 7 in a row).  But, this is a short week for the Texans, they narrowly defeated the Raiders last week, and despite the strength of its defense (1st overall; 1st scoring; 4th in Passing and Rushing), the Chargers are no slouches on that side of the ball themselves (2nd overall; 6th passing, 8th scoring; 10th rushing).  So, I will take the home team, who I happen to believe is the best team in the AFC.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Baltimore Ravens

This is an absolute must-win for the Ravens, and nothing about them losing 3 of their last 4 games says they can win.  The Packers need a win to relieve pressure for next week's contest, and they are home during a short week.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Nothing can right a pirate ship heading in the wrong direction quite like a game against the Dolphins.

New York Jets +13 1/2 v. New England Patriots

The Patriots are better, and will win, but they will also underestimate the Jets and New York back-door covers.

 

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Cleveland Browns

Intra-divisional game with a home underdog, but I will give the points since I have been underestimating the Steelers the entire second half of the season.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Jacoby Brissett has actually had a good season.  The Cardinals, however, have not.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Saints are on a 3-game winning streak, and will keep it up in Nashville.

Indianapolis Colts +6 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Another home intra-divisional underdog.  Yes, the Colts got smoked by the 49ers, but the offense moved the ball and scored often.  It is a short week, so I don't like that, but I have to disobey one gambling rule, so I'll take the Colts to keep it close.

Carolina Panthers +7 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window, and like a lot of teams recently, probably underestimating the Panthers.

New York Giants -1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders stink, and without Brock Bowers, they stink even more!

Buffalo Bills -1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

This just means more to the Bills, and I am operating under the assumption that Josh Allen will be playing.

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Chicago Bears

Although it is a short week for San Francisco, it is the late Sunday game.  And, if they play anything close to how they did against the Colts, it will be hard for anyone to beat them the remainder of the year.

Los Angeles Rams -8 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anyone even care about this game?  The Falcons probably don't.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs +13 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Same scenario - home team/short week and home intra-divisional underdog, only this time it is by double-digits!!!  And to be honest, I don't even know what a Chris Oladokun is.  (Seriously, is that like a midwest chupacabra?)  But, Denver's offense has not been impressive this year, despite some pretty good statistics (8th passing; 13th scoring; 11th overall), AND Kansas City's defense is 4th in Scoring.  So this game could be kept close for that reason alone. 

This is A LOT of points.  And, Denver isn't a team that ordinarily blows teams away.  KC can keep it under two touchdowns!

Last Week Record: 12-4

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 116-122-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 5-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $910

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,985) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 5

This season has been abysmal.  I am just going to go ahead and blame all of the injuries, but truly it is that I have not been paying as much attention as I need to do.  In fact, I am in a confidence league and I am also doing worse than I have ever picked in that league too.  Got to turn it around, so going to really make sure I give it my all this week.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -8 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Ordinarily this spread would be much closer, as the NFL's 4th-ranked offense (Rams) challenges the 3rd-ranked defense (49ers).  But, San Francisco is just missing too many players, and it is a short week.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 against Minnesota Vikings (in London)

The jet lag for the Browns could really be a problem, as Minnesota played in Dublin last week.  But, Cleveland has the number 1 total defense in the NFL (4th against the pass and 1st against the rush), Quinshon Judkins could feast on the 25ht-ranked run defense, and maybe they get a boost from Dillon Gabriel's first start, much as the Giants did with Dart's first start last week.

Dallas Cowboys +1 at New York Jets

The Jets looked putrid last week at the Dolphins, and that was on Monday night, making this a short week for the Jets.  Cowboys have the 5th highest scoring offense, and the best passing and total offense in the NFL.  Now, there are a lot of injuries for the Cowboys, so this line has moved from -2 1/2 to +1.  I'll take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Philadelphia put together its best performance of the season last week against Tampa Bay, and they get the Broncos coming off a late Monday night game.  Denver's offense is starting to click, but this is going to be a tough combo of playing the Eagles and off a short week, so I'll give the points.

Houston Texans -1 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Nothing about this pick makes any sense, I know.  Lamar Jackson is doubtful at this time, so Cooper Rush will likely get the start.  Rush has had some quality starts in the NFL, so he won't be rattled - even though Houston's defense - especially its pass rush - can be scary.  But, the Ravens NEED this win in order to keep moving toward the playoffs and desperate teams sometimes play desperately.  And that is easy to do when you have Derrick Henry, who should get 25 touches this game.   But then, I see that the worst defense in the NFL will now be missing Kyle Hamilton, so I switched my pick.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

So the Jaxson Dart start was amazing last week - in terms of the Giants win.  But, he didn't play that great (he played fine, great for a first start).  But the injuries continue to mount as the Giants lost Malik Nabers for the season.  Of more concern should be the 29th-ranked rush defense in trying to stop Alvin Kamara, who is likely auditioning for a trade with a playoff-contender.

Las Vegas Raiders +6 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

This might be the game where the Colts come back down to earth, unless everybody was completely wrong about Daniel Jones and it was the team - and not him - that was the problem in New York.  Colts may very well score enough points to win this game (they are 4th in scoring offense), but the Raiders may be learning how to use Ashton Jeanty enough to keep this under a touchdown.

Carolina Panthers + 1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

Dolphins are on a short week, and lost Tyreek Hill for the season (although they may have discovered Malik Washington as an actual offensive weapon).  Carolina is bad, but they actually give up less points than the Dolphins on the season.  If only they could find a QB or a RB.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

I am taking the Buccaneers on the chance that Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving actually play (which is NOT a given).  But that being said, Teddy Bridgewater is a solid back-up and Richaad White has run well in his opportunities so far this year.  I think with more than a field goal, this is a solid pick regardless of Mayfield and Irving's status.

Arizona Cardinals -7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

So Arizona is without its top two backs in James Conner and Trey Benson.  Won't matter as this Titans team is giving up 30 points per game and is last in the NFL in scoring.

Los Angeles Chargers -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Chargers are REALLY good this year.  Their defense is 4th in Total Defense and 4th in Scoring Defense and the offense is 7th in Total Offense (5th in Passing Offense).  Jayden Daniels returns, and that should be a spark for the Commanders, but they just aren't going to have enough to win this on the road.

Detroit Lions -10 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals were drubbed by the Broncos on Monday night, and although double digits are a lot of points to give up in the NFL, this is a short week for Cincinnati.  Detroit has scored the most points in the NFL.

New England Patriots +7 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills should win this game, especially with the 2nd-ranked Total Offense and Scoring Offense in the NFL.  But, Drake Maye is legitimate, and perhaps Trayveon Henderson can live up to some of h is preseason hype against the 31st ranked rushing defense.  Buffalo goes to 5-0, but the Patriots keep it close.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense.  But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense.  KC cruises.

Byes:  Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been surprising, as Travis Etienne is 3rd in the NFL in rushing (and the team is 4th), while also maintaining the 4th best rushing defense.  But, this KC offense is just different with Xavier Worthy present as he was last week, and Jacksonville is 24th in passing defense.  KC cruises.

This goes against every fiber of my being picking a team on the road giving up points as my Big Bet, but that thumping of the Ravens last week (and yes, I get it a lot of Ravens went down with injuries) showed me something, and that something coincided with the return of Xavier Worthy and Chris Jones.

Last Week Record:  7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  28-36

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-3

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($455)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,505) 

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LIX

Super Bowl Sunday is here - and it's about time that this travesty of a football season - gambling-wise anyway - is coming to an end.  That doesn't mean that there isn't some opportunity to cut into my huge losses for the year.  Hopefully we can find some really good prop bets to be successful, since I don't have any idea of what is going to happen in the game.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 versus Philadelphia Eagles

This line is really close, and has actually moved in Philadelphia's favor since it opened as Kansas City -1 1/2.  Two tough teams that have been among the best in the NFL for the entire year.  In fact, this seems like the year to really bet on Philadelphia.  First of all, these two teams met two years ago, with Kansas City winning 38-35, scoring near the end after what some people consider a controversial pass-interference penalty.  [Ed. Note = it was totally pass interference.]  This Philadelphia team is much, much better with Saquon Barkley running the ball and Jalen Carter becoming a dominant force on the interior defensive line.  But, and this is a really big butt, Kansas City is Kansas City, despite seemingly having dropped off performance-wise this year.  It must be nice to go 15-2 during a "down" season.  First of all, they have Patrick Mahomes.  As was shared with me earlier today about Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc. "Everybody better than Mahomes til it's time to be better than Mahomes."  Second, the Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid.  And Reid, is among the best overall, and there are none better with two weeks to prepare.  Reid's teams are 32-7 with two weeks to prepare for a game.  32-7!!!  That is astronomical!!!

Kansas City Chiefs -118 versus Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $118 to win $100)

This would be a perfect hedge, except for one thing, the Eagles are only even money.  That isn't enough to make a difference on the season, so if I think KC is going to win at -1, then I have to take them for the moneyline.  Plus, two more stats involving rematches in the Super Bowl.  This is the fifth rematch between coaches (Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni).  In all 4 previous coaching rematches, the previous winning coach won the subsequent Super Bowl.  This is also the fourth rematch between quarterbacks (Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts).  In each of the three previous rematches, the initial winning quarterback won the rematch.

Kansas City Chiefs versus Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48 1/2

I honestly thought that I was going to select the under up until the moment I just made my pick given that Kansas City is 4th in scoring defense and Philadelphia is 2nd.  But, do we really think that these two teams are going to average 24 points each or less?  I do not.  If both these teams reach their scoring averages for the season, they hit the over.

Now, on to the props!!!

Jon Batiste National Anthem OVER 120 1/2 seconds

Only 14 performances of the National Anthem have lasted two minutes or longer since 1990 (less than half), but 7 of the last 11 have lasted that long.  And with Batiste not only singing the national anthem, but likely also playing the piano accompaniment, I feel strong that this could go over, especially if he draws out "home of the brave". 

Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

If Philly gets into a goal line situation, the Tush Push, or Brotherly Shove will almost certainly be succseeful.

Travis Kelce OVER 60.5 yars -110 (Bet $110 to win $100)

Kelce has hit this number in 14 of 15 career playoff games since 2020.

Dallas Goedert/Xavier Worthy 50/50 Parlay +165 (Bet $100 to win $165)

This bet is for both players to gain more than 50 receiving yards.

Dallas Goedert Over 4 1/2 receipts -137 (Bet $137 to win $100)

Kansas City averages giving up 6 receiptions per game to tight ends.

Xavier Worthy Any Time Touchdown +165 (Bet $100 to win $165)

Given Worthy's importance to this offense, and it seems that Mahomes has been looking for Worthy more and more.

Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 2 1/2 +120 (Bet $100 to win $120)

These teams take a lot of chances.

Longest Field Goal Made OVER 47 1/2 -105 (Bet $105 to win $100)

Harrison Butker has made three of the eleven field goals over 49 yards in Super Bowl history.

Total Sacks Under 5 1/2 -145 (Bet $145 to win $100)

Two very mobile and poised quarterbacks who are also smart enough to throw the ball away.  They combined for two sacks just two years ago.

DeAndre Hopkins OVER 1 1/2 receptions +105 (Bet $100 to win $105)

It just feels like Kansas City has been waiting for him to break out.  What better time than the Super Bowl.

Noah Gray OVER 11 1/2 receiving yards -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Gray averages 10.9 yards per catch, so two catches and this should be easy.

Noah Gray Any Time Touchdown +500 (Bet $100 to win $500)

A good percentage of Gray's targets this year came inside the 20-yard line, and his 5 TDs and great hands make him a favorite target of Mahomes near the endzone.

Big Bets:

Kansas City Chiefs -1 versus Philadelphia Eagles

This line is really close, and has actually moved in Philadelphia's favor since it opened as Kansas City -1 1/2.  Two tough teams that have been among the best in the NFL for the entire year.  In fact, this seems like the year to really bet on Philadelphia.  First of all, these two teams met two years ago, with Kansas City winning 38-35, scoring near the end after what some people consider a controversial pass-interference penalty.  [Ed. Note = it was totally pass interference.]  This Philadelphia team is much, much better with Saquon Barkley running the ball and Jalen Carter becoming a dominant force on the interior defensive line.  But, and this is a really big butt, Kansas City is Kansas City, despite seemingly having dropped off performance-wise this year.  It must be nice to go 15-2 during a "down" season.  First of all, they have Patrick Mahomes.  As was shared with me earlier today about Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, etc. "Everybody better than Mahomes til it's time to be better than Mahomes."  Second, the Chiefs are coached by Andy Reid.  And Reid, is among the best overall, and there are none better with two weeks to prepare.  Reid's teams are 32-7 with two weeks to prepare for a game.  32-7!!!  That is astronomical!!!

Kansas City Chiefs versus Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48 1/2

I honestly thought that I was going to select the under up until the moment I just made my pick given that Kansas City is 4th in scoring defense and Philadelphia is 2nd.  But, do we really think that these two teams are going to average 24 points each or less?  I do not.  If both these teams reach their scoring averages for the season, they hit the over.

Jon Batiste National Anthem OVER 120 1/2 seconds

Only 14 performances of the National Anthem have lasted two minutes or longer since 1990 (less than half), but 7 of the last 11 have lasted that long.  And with Batiste not only singing the national anthem, but likely also playing the piano accompaniment, I feel strong that this could go over, especially if he draws out "home of the brave". 

Jalen Hurts Any Time Touchdown -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

If Philly gets into a goal line situation, the Tush Push, or Brotherly Shove will almost certainly be succseeful.

Record

Last Week's Record:  2-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  151-146-11

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-13

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($405)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,907.65)

Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Solid start to the playoffs, finishing in the black.  A couple of low-scoring games kept me from being waaaaay up, but that is the nature of betting.  Let's see if I can capitalize on a good playoff start as we head into divisional weekend!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game.  But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year.  Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now.  And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.

Kansas City Chiefs -455 v. Houston Texans (Bet $455 to win $100)

I learned a long time ago not to bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.  Even if this game is going to be close, I still feel strongly that Kansas City advances to the Conference Championship weekend; especially if Joe Mixon does not play for Houston (he is questionable).  Plus, Andy Reid is not going to lose coming off a bye week.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2

Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend.  Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have had a helluva run this year, and finished as the 5th highest-scoring team in the NFL, but Detroit has been otherwordly on offense, averaging over 33, and their defense is 7th in points allowed.  With an extra week to rest up, and with David Montgomery returning, Detroit should cruise.

Detroit Lions -455 v. Washington Commanders (Bet $455 to win $100)

I already mentioned I think that Detroit is going to cruise, so I have to pick them with the money line, right?  Here is another reason why, Detroit is 5th against the run on defense, which could stifle Washington's 3rd-ranked rush offense, or at least limit it to less yard than they are used to gaining.  And oh yeah, Washington is on a short week.

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions UNDER 55 1/2

The contrapositive of the earlier over/under bet.  If you can't bet the under on the highest number, when can you?

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia's offense just hasn't looked right lately, even with Saquon doing his thing.  Jalen Hurts only threw for 131 yards last week in his first game back from injury for a team that is only 29th in the NFL in passing.  The Rams could focus on Saquon and try to limit his yards, as much as any time can.  On the other side, even a great pass defense like the Eagles are going to have problems with Puka Nacua, especially in inclement weather.

Los Angeles Rams +240 at Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $100 to win $240)

Some upset has to occur, right?  If so, I think it is this one, as the Rams have been a completely different team since Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned in Week 7, going 9-3 (including last week's win) since.  And yes this includes a 37-20 loss to the Eagles in Week 12, and I am willing to bet that Saquon doesn't have another 255 yard game along with A.J. Brown going for over 100 as well.   What scares me?  The Rams are playing on a short week, having played the Monday night game last week.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 42 1/2

I thought for sure that I was going to pick the under hear, with sub-freezing temperatures expected, but inclement weather often produces turnovers in plus-territory, meaning two or three extra scoring possessions.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Buffalo Bills

If a road favorite is only favored by 1, are they truly a road favorite?  Yes the loss of Zay Flowers may hurt, but as I typed last week, the Ravens are scary in two-tight end sets as that increases the big blockers for Derrick Henry, and Isaiah Likely joins Mark Andrews as excellent pass catchers.  Josh Allen has been a force of nature this year, but Lamar is the MVP as far as I am concerned, and Baltimore's number 1 rushing defense will make Allen's arm try to beat them, in inclement weather.

Baltimore Ravens -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

So, I really could have just bet Buffalo at Even here, which would hedge against my points spread bet, but because of the vig, that would have meant that I just lost $20 with no potential payout, so, the smart thing to do here is just bet on the Ravens for both, and hope for the best.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills OVER 51 1/2

No real reason for picking this over other than I just really want this to be a high scoring game, and I hope this helps manifest the outcome.  But really, both teams average scoring over 30 a game (30.5 for Baltimore and 30.9 for Buffalo), so I don't feel that this is too much of a reach.

Big Bets:

Houston Texans +9 at Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is the overwhelming favorite, and I believe they will win this game.  But, 9 points is a lot for this stage of the playoffs, especially given how close Kansas City's games have been this year.  Plus, Houston's defense is tough (6th against the pass; 11th against the rush, 7th in total defense), and Will Anderson, Jr. is on a heater right now.  And with Danielle Hunter's win percentage on the other side of the defensive line being the highest in the NFL, this game is going to be close.

Going to get my big bets early, taking the Texans to cover for all of the reasons mentioned in this post.  Also, this game is going to be tough to watch as I need KC to win, but not by too much.  Fun times.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41 1/2

Have to take the over in the lowest O/U number of the weekend.  Plus, the defenses average giving up over 41 total on the season, so I will take it.

Hoping that Kansas City coming off a bye week hits 30 on their own.

Record

Last Week's Record:  11-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1

Year-to-Date Record:  145-135-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 10-10

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $213.50

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($601.50)

Picks of the Week

So it only took until Week 2 for me to have my first horrendous week.  Thank goodness for the Big Bet!  But, I am not alone, as tons of people worldwide suffered last week.  If you are in a Survivor Pool, odds are, you are out.  Something like 25% of all people in Survivor Pools hosted by known and available sites (like ESPN, CBS, etc.) remain after two weeks.  That is ridiculous, and that is just picking winners, not even accounting for the spread.  Let's see if we can have a bounce back week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +6 1/2 at New York Jets

I had no allusions that the Patriots would win this game, but the Jets had looked underwhelming, at best, in the first two weeks, to the point where I was wondering if they might just be overrated.  They handled their business.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

They have to start playing offense at some point, right?  And, if there was any time to try to limit the pressure on Caleb Williams and run the ball, it would be this week against the team last in the NFL in rushing defense, giving up 237 yards per game so far, and, with star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner out for the game.  Caleb Williams also throws his first touchdown pass today, and the Bears defense remains at a high level.  Anthony Richardson can make big plays with his arm and legs, but he is also erratic with his arm, and this Bears secondary is no joke.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 v. Denver Broncos

I know the Broncos are rocking with a rookie quarterback and they will experience growing pains, but they have no identity on offense.  Their defense has been pretty stout to start the season, but one of those games was against the Steelers.  Baker Mayfield is playing at a high, high level, and the Bucs will score against Denver.

Houston Texans -2 at Minnesota Vikings

This is an incredibly difficult line, as both teams are playing well to start the season.  Sam Darnold is turning out better than almost everyone thought so far, but Houston's defense is imporved to an elite level like its offense.  I don't like giving up points on the road, but I will here.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This game is also difficult to pick, but for much different reasons, primarily that Justin Herbert is a game-time decision, and the report from Adam Shefter just now is that we still don't know if he will play, and won't know until the Chargers take the field.  So, I just have to take a deep breath, block out all of the noise, and realize that the betting rules say to take the east coast home team against a Pacific time zone team in the 1:00 game slot anyway, so I am .

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

My initial thought was to take the points and the Eagles, given that the Eagles must be so angry at how their Monday Night game against the Falcons ended.  Then I realized that ... the Eagles played Monday night!!!  This is a short week.  This is a great time to pick the resurrected career of Derek Carr!

Green Bay Packers +3 at Tennessee Titans

Green Bay bounced back from their Week 1 loss to the Eagles with a Week 2 win against the Colts, and I am not sure what either of those mean.  What I am sure of is that Tennessee lost to both the Bears and the Jets, and they are giving points today.  Green Bay controls the clock, and the game, and probably wins outright.

Cleveland Browns -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Both offenses are BAD!  New York's defense is BAD!  Cleveland's defense is meh.  I feel like this should be a lower line, but I am going to give the points anyway, because I just have a feeling that this Giants team is going backwards, fast.

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Miami Dolphins2

The Dolphins defense is legitmiate, and defense always travels.  The problem is that an offense led by Skylar Thompson probably doesn't - even with weapons like Devon Achane and Tyreek Hill.  Seattle is also out Kenneth Walker, but relying on Geno Smith is much easier to do than to rely on Skylar Thompson.

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Is it possible that the move from Bryce Young to the experienced Andy Dalton does allow the Panthers' offense to coalesce a bit around its established players and finally get Diontae Johnson involved, of course.  Am I betting that this time is not a total trainwreck?  No, I am not.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Dallas Cowboys

A team as talented as this Ravens squad cannot start the season 0-3 right?  RIGHT?

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

I am getting points for a home team in an intradivisional rivalry game where the visiting team is missing its starting running back, starting wide receiver, and starting tight end, all of whom are in the tops at their position in the league.  I still think that with Jordan Mason, the 49ers can win this game, but 6 1/2 points seems a bit much.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played fantastic against the Rams last week, and host Detroit who lost a game the team thinks it should have won last week against the Buccaneers.  Will that make Detroit more motivated?  Of course - I mean it has Dan Campbell.  That extra fire in the game is what compels this road win.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It might be soul-searching time for the Jaguars vis-a-vis a decision about what to do with this squad going forward.  Do they have talent?  Absolutely.  Is some of that talent as good as they are being paid?  Absolutely not.  And the team has put together a mish-mash of offensive talent that doesn't necessarily jell together.  But, you know what team knows exactly who they are?  The Buffalo Bills.

Washington Commanders +7 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati should win this game, and maybe even handily.  But, there are a lot of things that look good for Washington going forward ... Jayden Daniels looks like he belongs, he is due for his first passing touchdown, and McLaurin needs to break open for the rookie to have a true #1 target.  All of these happen late in the fourth quarter for a back-door cover!

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

I generally prefer home teams for my Big Bet, and I also prefer them receiving points, or it being a close point spread, but this bet is too good to pass up.  The Kansas City offense revolves around Patrick Mahomes, so the Isaiah Pacheco injury isn't going to hurt too much.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week.  I feel confident that the Chiefs can outgun Atlanta, even with their injuries.

Record

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  13-17-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($270)

 

Football Season Betting Totals

So, we have completed the NFL season, and what a great season it was.  Even the Super Bowl, in which I did horrible for most of the bets, the prop bets saved me!!!  So, here are the totals for the Super Bowl, the Playoffs, and overall for the season.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-1

Playoffs' Record:  25-14

Playoffs' Big Bet:  4-2

Year-to-Date Record:  169-128-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-13
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $200.50

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,355.50

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,450.50

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LVIII

It has been an excrutiating two weeks, listening to incels complain about Taylor Swift, listening to asinine interviewers in Vegas, and watching crazy video clips of things like Tua jumping on stage and playing guitar with Darius Rucker during Wagon Wheel! Seriously!!!  All I want is to get to what will likely be the most watched Super Bowl ever - and of course make some money.  Now, the two-week layoff was in no way too long for me to ruminate on the fact that I had a losing Championship Sunday, but today is another day - complete with prop bets!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Patrick Mahomes 10-1-1 record against the spread in the playoffs, and how four years ago he turned a 10 point deficit into an 11 point victory against San Francisco for his first Super Bowl win by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but this San Francisco defense is older and better, and Kansas City's offense is not as smooth as they have been in the past.  The most encouraging point for Kansas City - besides knowing how to win and having Patrick Mahomes - Kadarius Toney will not be playing!!!! 

San Francisco 49ers -120 over Kansas City Chiefs (Bet $120 to win $100)

This is simple math; if I think that San Francisco will win as a favorite, and when the money line is this close (Kansas City's best bet is +110), then I have to take San Francisco with the money line.  If this doesn't work out - then I have to hope the prop bets come in!

Kansas City Chiefs v. San Francisco 49ers OVER 47 1/2

The one thing we know about these teams is that they can score against anybody.  San Francisco was third in the NFL this year, and despite being 15th, Kansas City is, well, Kansas City.  Yes both of their defenses are stingy (SF 3rd in points allowed; KC 2nd), but do you honestly believe that 1 touchdown a quarter for each team isn't possible, especially when neither the players nor the coaches will be especially nervous?  Plus, it is way more interesting in betting the over than the under.

Now on to the prop bets!

Reba McIntyre National Anthem OVER 89.5 seconds (+102 - Bet $100 to win $102)

So, I almost always take the under under for the anthem, but the last two years three years that number has been at 2:00 or over.  For Reba, the number is under 1 1/2 minutes - which I have to take.

San Francisco 49ers OVER 6 1/2 players to catch a pass (Even Money)

So San Francisco likes to spread the ball around.  It feels like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings, and Kyle Jusczcyzk will all catch a pass, so this relies upon Elijah Mitchell - or somebody else - to catch one also.

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1 1/2 Rushing Attempts (+110 - Bet $100 to Win $110)

Speaking of Elijah Mitchell, he has a chance to make bettors some real money here.  Now of course the offense will be focused on Christian McCaffrey, but he is going to have some breaks - and Mitchell is more than solid.  Plus, he had 4 carries against Detroit.

Dre Greenlaw UNDER 8 1/2 tackles (-135 - Bet $135 to win $100)

Greenlaw only hit over 8 tackeles in 5 games this  year, but Kansas City will likely pass more than the teams San Francisco played this year.  So this seems like a good bet to me, especially with Fred Warner playing next to him.

George Karlaftis OVER .25 sacks (+110 - Bet $100 to win $110)

His motor never stops, and this prop bet gives us the opportunity to win with only 1/2 a sack.  Plus, Purdy seems more likely to be sacked than Mahomes (although Purdy is way more mobile than for which he is given credit.)

Longest Successful Field Goal - OVER 46 1/2 yards (+102 - Bet $100 to win $102)

Teams do not score a lot of points without hitting some lengthy field goals.  Harrison Butker would be my best bet to do this, but I wouldn't put it past either team.  With great defenses playing, you have to score points whenever you have the opportunity.

Nick Bosa OVER 1 1/2 solo tackles (-160 - Bet $160 to win $100)

Another player whose motor never stops, and he is 50% more motivated than George Karlaftis is.  (IYKYK).

Nick Bosa Over .25 sacks (-115 - Bet $115 to win $100)

Nick Bosa will get a sack.

Nick Bosa OVER .75 sacks (Even Money)

Nick Bosa will get a sack.  This concludes the Nick Bosa Section of our betting).

Patrick Mahomes -16 1/2 yards v. Brock Purdy

Purdy relies more on the running game than Mahomes will, I think, so I expect Mahomes will throw for a significant amount more yards than Purdy does.

San Francisco 49ers v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 44 1/2 Pass completions

I expect both players to throw a lot, and be very accurate.

Deebo Samuel + 3 1/2 yards on his first carry

The Forty-Niners like to utilize Deebo in the rush game, and I think his first carry will net at least 4 yards.

Harvard alumnus wins the Super Bowl OVER 1/2

Not a real prop bet, but just a way for me to mention that each team has a Harvard alumnus on their squad - Truman Jones on Kansas City and Kyle Juszczyk on San Francisco.

Big Bet:

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Patrick Mahomes 10-1-1 record against the spread in the playoffs, and how four years ago he turned a 10 point deficit into an 11 point victory against San Francisco for his first Super Bowl win by scoring 21 unanswered points in the fourth quarter, but this San Francisco defense is older and better, and Kansas City's offense is not as smooth as they have been in the past.  The most encouraging point for Kansas City - besides knowing how to win and having Patrick Mahomes - Kadarius Toney will not be playing!!!! 

Honestly, other than Mahomes, San Francisco has the majority of the true offensive weapons in today's game:  McCaffrey, Samuel, Aiyuk, and Kittle, versus Kelce, with Pacheco and Rice getting there.  I'll take the weapons.

Elijah Mitchell OVER 1 1/2 Rushing Attempts (+110 - Bet $100 to Win $110)

Speaking of Elijah Mitchell, he has a chance to make bettors some real money here.  Now of course the offense will be focused on Christian McCaffrey, but he is going to have some breaks - and Mitchell is more than solid.  Plus, he had 4 carries against Detroit.

I see Mitchell getting 4 to 5 carries this game.

Record

Last Week's Record:  1-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Playoffs' Record:  16-8

Playoffs' Big Bet:  3-1

Year-to-Date Record:  160-122-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($395)

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,155

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,250

Picks of the Weeks - Conference Championship Weekend!!!

 

The fantastic Wildcard Wekeend continued with a 6-2 week in the Divisional Round, including winning both big bets!!!  Cannot do much better than that!  An amazing playoff run that I hoop continues through Conference Championship Weekend.  Either way, this looks like it will be some great football watching today.  Who to bet on?  Let's see!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs + 4 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

There is a legitimate chance that the Chiefs could win this game outright, so might as well take the points, right?  That, and Patrick Mahomes is 9-1-1 against the spread in his playoffs career.  I still expect the Ravens to win the game though, based on the fact that Buffalo easily sliced through the Chiefs defense, exposing what was the thrid best defense in the NFL - and Baltimore is a much better offense than Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

I expect this to be a 50+ point game, despite the fact that these two teams are first (Baltimore) and second (Kansas City) in the NFL in points allowed.

San Francisco 49ers -7 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

A lot of focus will be on the fact that both teams are tough against the run - with Detroit finishing second in the NFL and San Francisco finishing third, but the Lions are much worse against the pass (27th in the NFL) and Deebo Samuel is playing this week to give San Francisco that extra weapon for Detroit to try to stop.  

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 52 1/2

Honestly, I do not feel strongly either way on this.  Some sustained drives might limit possessions, keeping the score low - but just a guess.

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens OVER 43 1/2

I expect this to be a 50+ point game, despite the fact that these two teams are first (Baltimore) and second (Kansas City) in the NFL in points allowed.

Both offenses should be in full effect in this game.  I honestly expected the O/U to be around 47 to 48, so I will take the OVER.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoffs' Record:  15-5

Playoffs' Big Bet:  3-0

Year-to-Date Record:  159-119-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $680

Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,550

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,645

Picks of the Week - YEARLY RECAP

 

So another season has ended, and what a great year it was.  The playoffs were a high point, as I definitely learned throughout the year, and that knowledge of this season definitely helped.  If only a couple of more sacks in the Super Bowl and this would have been TREMENDOUS, as I lost two sacks-related prop bets.  For the season, Buffalo was great, but not as great as everyone thought.  I shorted them.  Cincinnati was a betting godsend.  I took Washington early, but then gave up on them right around Taylor Heinecke's second start.  Miami was a roller coaster wave that a savvy bettor could ride with tremendous success.  And never sell Patrick Mahomes short, or overlook Andy Reid with a bye week (27-4 in his career).  All of that led to this ...

Last Week's Record:  7-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1

Year-to-Date Record:  162-139-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  13-9-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $405

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL Edition

 

Well - after two long, grueling weeks - especially for those of you that may have accidentally stubled onto the Pro Bowl - we are back for the Super Bowl.  Let's jump right into the picks.  Given that there is only one game - I may make a few prop bets also.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Kansas City Chiefs +1 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Look, the Eagles ARE the play here.  I knew since the line was set that I was going to select the Eagles.  Then I found out that 73% of the bets are on Philadelphia.  Since it is always best to go AGAINST the majority of the bettors, I settleed on Kansas City.  Plus, I realize that Jalen Hurts hasn't thrown a good meaningful pass in like 2 months.  All of the thoughts are on Mahomes' ankle, which will be shot up if it hurts, when Hurts' shoulder is way more questionable.

Kansas City Chiefs +110 v. Philadelphia Eagles (Bet $100 to win $110)

In for an ounce in for a pound, am I right?  Also, for all of the notoriety that the Eagles' pass rush has garnered this year - all of it deserved - (most sacks in a season and 4 players with at least 12 sacks), but Kansas City only gave up 26 sacks this year (2nd fewest in the NFL.)  The Eagles gave up 44, and Kansas City does have some pass rushers in Chris Jones, Frank Clark and George Karlaiftis.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51

This is the top to scoring teams in the league, and both teams have had Super Bowl runs in the not-so-distant past.  That means none of the players will be overwhelemed by the moment, and I think they will come out firing.  Plus, both teams - but especially Philadelphia - love to go for it on 4th down.  This means some touchdowns instead of field goals, or good field position for the other team.

Chris Stapleton National Anthem UNDER Two Minutes Seven Seconds

If Stapleton overly-blueses this thing, it could be close.

Kenneth Gainwell OVER 19 1/2 rushing yards (-110 - Bet 110 to win 100)

Philadelphia loves them some Kenneth Gainwell.  I feel like this is a lock.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 15 1/2 receiving yards

He has hit this in 6 of the last 9 games.  Could be close with Toney and McKinnon taking dump offs too.

Isiah Pacheco UNDER 11 1/5 rush attempts

Less rushes if he is catching passes, plus 3 other players (Edwards-Helaire, McKinnon, Toney) to take some carries too.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 18 1/2 rushing yards

Dude can scramble, even if the ankle is bad.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 5 1/2 sacks

See above about Philadelphia's pass rush, and propensity to give up sacks.

Kansas City Chiefs OVER 2 1/2 Sacks

Chris Jones, Frank Clark and George Karlaiftis all get at least 1.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 3 1/2 Field goals

High-scoring offenses do not stall in the red zone.

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 51

This is the top to scoring teams in the league, and both teams have had Super Bowl runs in the not-so-distant past.  That means none of the players will be overwhelemed by the moment, and I think they will come out firing.  Plus, both teams - but especially Philadelphia - love to go for it on 4th down.  This means some touchdowns instead of field goals, or good field position for the other team.

If both of these teams have an average game, we hit 57.

Chris Stapleton National Anthem UNDER Two Minutes Seven Seconds

If Stapleton overly-blueses this thing, it could be close.

The average time to sing the anthem is 1:47.

Kansas City Chiefs v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 5 1/2 sacks

See above about Philadelphia's pass rush, and propensity to give up sacks.

I feel like we will see quite a few this game, but spread out throughout the four quarters, not every play like last year.

Last Week's Record:  2-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  155-135-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-8-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($405)

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $679.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $824.50

Picks of the Week

The divisional round was fantastic for us, which is a good thing because I do not know if I can really figure out the conference championship games.  Of course, we will give it a shot and hope for the best.  Seriously, this is about the best final four matchups for which we could have hoped in terms of quality teams and great matchups.  Going to be a great football day!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

A dynamic matchup between the 6th and 3rd highest scoring offenses, and the 1st and 4th best defenses.  Strength versus strength with Piladelphia being the 5th best rushing offense and San Franciso being the best overall defense, and 2nd best against the run.  Jalen Hurts is the difference here, as Brock Purdy - who has done an admirable job - is still just a rookie.  But, given that, I still think this game will be close, so I will take the points.  West coast team traveling east, but this game is not being played in the 1:00 time slot, so I will still take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -155 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $155 to win $100)

As stated above, Jalen Hurts is going to be the difference here, and will not make the key mistake(s) that Purdy will.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45

Two of the better defenses in the NFL, and a rookie quarterback make for an interesting under bet.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +115 at Kansas City Chiefs

I am going to take a Joe Burrow at 100% with J'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and a hobbled Travis Kelce.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiegs OVER 48

I expect a shootout!!!

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

If I expect Cincinnati to win, then the fact that they are getting points must mean I should make this my big bet.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-131-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week

 

Super Wild Card Weekend went pretty much as expected, as 5 of the 6 top seeds won games, and the won that lost - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - were the underdogs in that game.  To be fair, "Cue Letterkenny - TO BE FAIRRRRRRRRRRRR," Jacksonville as the 4 seed was also an underdog and beat the Chargers, so 5 of the top 6 favorites won, while 5 of the top 6 seeds won, but they all weren't the same five.  Anyway - really good playoff week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Once again the Jaguars are playing on Saturday, to basically kick-off the playoff coverage, and although their amazing comeback last week was captivating, I don't expect that type of comeback against Kansas City's offense.  Yes, I said offense, because even if Jacksonville scores against KC's defense, they will not be able to stop the leagues highest-scoring offense.

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 53

I see a 35-14/35-17 type of game today.

Philadelphia Eagles -8 v. New York Giants

This might seem tough because of the close game the teams just played in the last week of the season (22-16), but then I realize that the Giants are playing on a short week, so I will take the home team with full rest because of a bye playing a team travelling on a short week.

Philadelphia Eagles -375 v. New York Giants (Bet $375 to win $100)

Plus, the Eagles have the third best defense (total AND scoring) in the NFL, whereas the Giants 27th ranked rushing defense will try to stop the Eagles fifth-rated rushing attack.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48

This seems like a 35-17 game, or 33-21.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bills

This is the game that I am most looking forward to seeing.  I picked Cincinnati in the Damar Hamlin game because Buffalo has not seemed dominant, and even the Bears stayed even with Bills for 3+ quarters.  Giving 6 to Cincinnati with a depleted secondary seems dangerous as Cincinnati is the 5th best passing attack in the league.  The injuries on Cincinnati's offensive line are concerning, but they overcame that last year to make the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals +210 at Buffalo Bills (Bet $100 to win $210)

Buffalo's line is at -250, so it just makes sense to take the Cincinnati money line here.  Cincinnati may not shock anybody this year, but they still win.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills OVER 49

Would it shock anybody if this went 30+ points for both teams?

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco is rested, and they have the number 1 defense in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense.  Plus, they have the 6th highest scoring offense, and is there any doubt they would have been higher had they had Christian McCaffrey all year?  Plus, the Cowboys are playing on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -200 v. Dallas Cowboys

If I think the 49ers are going to cover the spread, I must think they are going to win outright, correct?  San Francisco is my favorite to win the Super Bowl right now.  Not sure who has the brawn to stop them, or the guns to outscore them.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers OVER 46 1/2

Honestly, I think this number is a bit low, so I will definitely take the over.

Big Bet:

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

The biggest monetary risk on the board is also the easiest pick on the board.  Have I mentioned that Andy Reid is 20-3 coming off a bye week.  These teams met in November, with Mahomes going 26-35 for 331 yards and 4 TDs, plus rushing for 39 more yards.  KC wins this.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  145-127-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $609.50

Picks of the Week

 

Another .500 week, but with the Big Bet being spot-on again, I inch a little closer to the break-even point.  (Yes, I know that cursed me to lose the big bet this week.)  So, a winning record overall, and just a bit in the red for the year, it might be time for me to make my move.  Also, starting off with a Thursday win that practically everybody doubted is a good start.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Houston Texans +14 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Home team on a short week.

Miami Dolphins -4 at Chicago Bears

The Bears have some good young cornerbacks in Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon, but against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the problem is that they are  young.  Oh yeah, and Johnson is out.  Give me Tuanigamanuolepola for the win!

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Washington Commanders

I really hate taking two road favorites in a row, but I feel like I have to do that here.  Taylor Heinecke is a decent option at quarterback, but this teams just doesn't score enough points.  For Washington to have a chance, they are going to have to get off the field on third-down, something that they are third-best in the NFL at doing.  They just don't have enough firepower.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals

Honestly, I think Cincinnati is angry at how they lost Monday night and might be raring to come out firing against a bad Panthers team.  However, their firepower is limited without J'Marr Chase (Higgins and Boyd are excellent, but Chase just puts so much pressure on a defense.)  Plus, it is a short week for Cincinnati.

Buffalo Bills -11 at New York Jets

This is preposterous.  An 11 point favorite on the road in an intra-divisional battle.  However, I am so old that I remember when the Jets were on eof the best passing teams in the league.  That was way back when Joe Flacco was starting and not third-string, a postition to which he was recently demoted.  Now, the Jets are 14th in passing.  The Bills, are 1st in total offense, 3rd in scoring offense, 1st in scoring defense, and 3rd in total defense.  Loooooooong day for Zach Wilson.

New England Patriots -5 v. Indianapolis Colts

These Patriots might be the worst 4-4 team of all time.  They are 21st in total offense, 19th in total defense, but would you want to go against a Belichick defense if you were a rooke quarterback, huh Sam Ehlinger?

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

All of Jacksonville's losses have been within 1 score, which means they will keep in close.  Never trust a west coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, as they fail to cover approximately 2/3 of the time.  Plus, Darren Waller is out.

Detroit Lions +4 v. Green Bay Packers

A home underdog in a division rivalry game always seems right.  But, especially this game as Green Bay must be downtrodden after doing ABSOLUTELY NOTHING at the trade deadline, including losing Chase Claypool to the Bears because Pittsburgh thinks Chicago's 2nd round draft pick will be higher than Green Bay's.  Perhaps not the way Green Bay is playing.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

First, the Chargers (along with the Raiders) have to be the most disappointing team in the NFL.  As far as this game goes, Atlanta is 5th in rushing, and the Chargers are 27th in rushing defense.  The Falcons are 6th in scoring and Los Angeles is 31st in scoring defense.  Plus, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time zone slot.  Wait, anybody know the numbers on this during "fall back" weekeng?

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle, seriously, is the 4th-highest scoring team in the NFL.  Arizona is the 30th-ranked scoring defense team.  Plus, Kenneth Walker moving into the starting lineup has been a serious game-changer for Seattle.  This kid is a star!

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I honestly didn't know what to do with this game at first.  Both teams are disappointing, and are not playing up to their potential.  These are the two worst rushing offenses in the league.  Both have pretty good to great defenses.  I'll just take points.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

Baltimore Ravens -2 at New Orleans Saints

Do not let the 5-3 record deceive you, this Ravens team lost a few games at the very end.  They are still losses, but it means they are better than New Orleans.  Andy Dalton might throw for quite a few yards, but the Ravens should run all over the Saints.  Both teams do a good job of converting 3rd downs (9th/8th), and stopping 3rd downs (8th/6th), so whichever team wins that battle will likely win the game.  My guess is Baltimore because of Lamar's scrambling ability.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, Dallas Cowboys, Denver Broncos, New York Giants, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Double digits are always a lot, but double digit favorites have covered more than they should have already this year.  Patrick Mahomes and his #2 passing offense in the NFL is facing the 24th-ranked passing defense.  And, he has a new toy in Kadarius Toney (to go with Kelce, Smith-Schuster, Hardman, et. al.).  Derrick Henry is still a beast, but Kansas City can slow him down by taking a big lead (and they have the 3rd best rushing defense.)  Plus, a rookie quarterback is making a start after only throwing 10 passes in his starting debut last week.  Kansas City it is.

This bet is absolutely nuts for a big bet.  No way should I take a prime time game with this big of a spread.  But seriously, Malik Willis, albeit talented, is a rookie that did not have much big game experience in college.  A Kansas City touchdown plus a key turnover on the next drive makes this a two touchdown lead very quickly.  Other games considered, Miami (except they are on the road), Jacksonville (except they are Jacksonville), Seattle (they are on the road), and New England (quarterback issues and competition with Jones v. Zappe.)  If Zappe was starting, I would have New England here.

Last Week's Record:  7-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-2-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $80

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($280)

Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Pretty good wild-card weekend picks-wise, as most of the games stunk.  I'll take that over picks being bad but having amazing games.  Let's see if I can continue this through the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -4 v. Cincinnati Bengals

A few things concern me with this pick.  First, this line opened at 2 1/2, and has jumped up to 4.  That means big money has come in on Tennessee, and you never want to be on the same side as the majority of the bettors in most occasions.  Second, Tennessee's defense, although 5th in scoring defense, was 25th against the pass.  So, I highly expect Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to make some big plays down the field.  But, Cincinnati's offensive line is atrocious and the Titans are 10th in sacks.  I expect Joe Burrow to be hit, a lot.  And, Derrick Henry returns.  Plus, he is fresh.  Tennessee wins.

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Over 47 1/2

With two bad pass defenses, some big plays are there to be made.

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Two pretty stingy defenses, with San Francisco's just a bit better than Green Bay's on the season (5th overall to 11th overall; 9th in scoring defense compared to 13th).  This game has all the makings of being a close game, much like their week 3 30-28 battle.  This game is likely to turn on a turnover (I'm looking at you Jimmy Garoppolo!)

Green Bay Packers -$235 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $235 to win $100)

Aaron Rodgers continues his F  You tour by leading his Packers to a hard-fought win against the 49ers.  The week off gets everyone healthy and rested, and we end up with a Packers versus Buccaneers/Rams NFC championship.  A San Fran win would be disappointing to all but San Fran fans.  Plus, San Francisco is on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers OVER 47 1/2

Their week 3 battle ended 30-28.  I expect a similar score this week as Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams both make some big plays.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFL did Los Angeles no favors by making them play on Monday night, thus creating two teams this round that are playing on a short week.  Good thing for the Rams the Cardinals game was not particularly tough.  Tampa received some good news as offensive linemen Tristen Wirfs and Ryan Jensen will both be playing, however, they are not 100% after suffering injuries last week.  And, with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd rushing the passer, those two injuries will likely play a major role in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +$130 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $130)

Cam Akers and Sony Michel offer just enough of a running game to allow Matthew Stafford to make some plays downfield and lead the Rams to the Conference Championship.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47 1/2

I love that all 3 of the O/Us are 47 1/2 right now.  Making all over bets makes it super easy for me to remember my choices!

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This should be a phenomenal game.  Buffalo enters the game with the best defense in the NFL statistically (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd down percentage defense, 1st in passing defense and 13th in rushing defense).  But, Buffalo lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to a knee injury in late November, and it is going to be hard to guard the Chiefs' speed on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman without White.

Kansas City Chiefs -$125 v. Buffalo Bills (Bet $125 to win $100)

Buffalo has a great chance to win this game.  I only took the Chiefs in the point spread bet because the spread is so low.  But, the money line isn't of any value for me to take Buffalo (+$110), if I think that Kansas City is actually going to win, so rather than canceling out my two bets, it is all-or-nothing on Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54

Maybe a 38-31 type of a game.

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Tennessee finished as the number 1 seed in the AFC even without Derrick Henry for a number of games.  This looks like the one favorite that is least likely to lose.

Last Week's Record:  10-7-1

Playoff Record:  10-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoff Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-136-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $334

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  $334

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($6) 

Picks of the Week - Wildcard Round Edition

Always hard to pick the last week of the season, when you are unsure who is actually going to play an entire game (looking at you Aaron Rodgers), but given how the season started, a pretty strong finish overall (thank you weeks 15 and 16)!  Now it's the wildcard round, and I wll pick the games - using the spread and the money line - and the over/under.  Here we go ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I really wanted to pick the Raiders here, but then I remembered they will be travelling on a short week, and the loss of defensive tackle Darius Philon might open some things up for Joe Mixon, giving Joe Burrow the opportunity for some play-action passes, and not just heaving it to J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Cincinnati Bengals -$240 v. Las Vegas Raiders (Bet $240 to Win $100)

As much as I wanted to select the Raiders with the spread, I always thought the Bengals were going to win outright.

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals Over 48

Neither team is great getting off the field on 3rd down, and the Raiders are 26th in the league in points allowed.

Buffalo Bills -4 v. New England Patriots

The Bills are just better.  New England's victory over Buffalo this year came in a weird windstorm that resulted in New England passing 3 times the entire game.  In the week 16 rematch, the Bills won 33-21 in New England.  Plus New England is away on a short week.

Buffalo Bills -$210 v. New England Patriots (Bet $210 to Win $100)

Obviously if I am going to give points, I am goint to think the favorite will win outright.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills OVER 43

It is going to be COLD tonight, but hardly any wind and no precipitation.  Bills score 30+ themselves.

Philadelphia Eagles +8 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia is 7-3 in their last 10 games, including last week's loss where they started nobody.  This game is going to be wierd as a cold front should be going through Tampa during the game.  Temperatures in the 60s isn't exactly cold, but alomst 20 mph winds and basically 100% chance of rain, will affect this game.  The Eagles have been running the ball extremely well and finished best in the league.  Tampa Bay was 26th in rushing, but playoff Lenny will be back.  Except, now Playoff Lenny is out, as is Ronald Jones II.  At least Giovanni Bernard is fresh.

Philadelphia Eagles + $320 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $320)

Now, I don't actually think Philadelphia is going to win, but I also don't want to take the -$400 money line on Tampa.  If the Eagles cover the spread, then these two bets are basically a wash, which I could live with.  But, given the likely weather, this is a upset upon which I am willing to take a chance.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers UNDER 46

The weather.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the game that I don't want to touch, but for both of my fans out there, I will.  So, this is just a guess on a whim, but I feel like the comeback last week by the 49ers to secure the playoff spot might just have been too much for them to be ready this week, especially facing the number 1 offense in the NFL (total and scoring).  Although San Francisco's defense has been stellar (5th overall, 6th passing defense, 7th rushing defense, T9th in scoring defense), they just might have used up everything they had last week.  Again, just a hunch.

Dallas Cowboys -$160 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $160 to win $100)

I would have been more enticed by the money line for San Francisco if I could have gotten more than just +$140.  Dallas to win.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboy OVER 49 1/2

Could be a 31-24 type game.

Kansas City Chiefs -11 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers shouldn't even be in the playoffs.

Kansas City Chiefs -$700 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $700 to win $100)

Even with Pittsburgh sitting at a nice +$540 doesn't entice me to pick THIS underdog.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 45 1/2

Kansas City may do this on their own.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is better than the Los Angeles in almost every statistic - 6th in total offense (to 9th), 11th in scoring offense (to 17th), 10th in total defense (to 17th), and T9th in scoring defense (to T15th).  But, the Rams beat the Cardinals in Week 13 at home 30-23 (although Kyler Murray threw for 383).  It will be hard for Arizona to replicate those offensive numbers without DeAndre Hopkins, and LA has Aaron Darnold, who might be the best player in the entire NFL.  Hopefully the Rams learned from the second half of San Francico that they have to play 100% for 100% of the game.

Los Angeles Rams -$190 v. Arizona Cardinals (Bet $190 to win $100)

This game is a potential NFC championship game if DeAndre Hopkins was playing.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams OVER 49

I sure am excited about seeing a potential Monday night shootout!

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -$700 over Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $700 to win $100)

Even with Pittsburgh sitting at a nice +$540 doesn't entice me to pick THIS underdog.

Easiest bet on the board in a long - long time.

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  143-129

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($140)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($340)