Showing posts with label Bear Down. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bear Down. Show all posts

Thursday, January 8, 2026

Picks of the Week - NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

 

OK - the worst NFL season of my picking career is finished, and we are now on to the Wildcard Round!!!  Hooray for that, at least.  Since the playoffs offer many less games to choose, I will be selecting each game Against the Spread, with the Money Line, and the Over/Under.  Also, I might have two Big Bets.  Let's see how that goes!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
In no way, shape or form do I think that Carolina deserves to be in the playoffs, nor do I think they have a chance to win this game.  But - and it is a big BUT - the NFL placed this game in the Saturday afternoon window, which means the Pacific Time Zone team has to travel to the Eastern Time Zone to play a game on a short week.  This spells gambling trouble, and since it seems too easy to just pick the Rams, I have to take double-digit points.

Los Angeles Rams -600 Moneyline (Bet $600 to win $100) at Carolina Panther
The Rams have the league's highest-scoring offense and the second-best Total Offense.  Carolina is going to have trouble getting Los Angeles' offense off the field, ranking 31st in defensive first-down percentage.  Rams win, but it will be way closer than it should be.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 1/2
The ordinarily high-flying Rams offense is going to be slow to takeoff, and Carolina is going to try to keep this game on the ground to keep possessions low.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
Both of the first two games between these two long-time rivals came down to the final play (each with the ball in Caleb Williams' hand).  There is no reason to think that this one will be any different.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional rivalry is always a good play.   And, it is a short week.

Green Bay Packers -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Chicago Bears
But, the above notwithstanding, the Packers had the lead in both previous games, and would have won the second if not for the fact Chicago recovered an onside kick.  Smart play here is Green Bay, and given that Chicago money line is anywhere from even to -108, and this bet is a no-brainer.  That being said, I hope I lose this one.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 45 1/2
I feel like both of these teams could score 21 in their sleep against each other, so all I need is basically one additional score.  So I'll take the over.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have been playing great, but even with what seems like a subpar season performance-wise, the Bills still have Josh Allen and the 3rd-best total offense (and 4th-highest scoring offense) in the NFL.  Jacksonville's rush defense is stout (best in the NFL), but the passing defense is 21st.
 
Buffalo Bills -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Jacksonville Jaguars
If I am expecting the Bills to win (which is what +1 basically means), then I have to take their money line.  It is weird that the Bills are favored in MoneyLine Bets and some even have them as favorite against the spread - this is a bizarre game to prognosticate.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2
Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers +200 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $200) at Philadelphia Eagles
A healthy, healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey, a wide-array of offensive talent, and a favorable money line all make this to be a good bet.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 1/2
A high-flying offense and a couple of tush pushes makes this the play.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots
Another Pacific Time Zone team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but this is at night!  These are two very evenly matched teams with New England a little better on offense (4th versus 10th) and the Chargers a little better on defense (2nd versus 8th).   Given this, I will take the points, and an angry Harbaugh over his brother's firing.

Los Angeles Chargers +165 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $165) at New England Patriots
If I think that the Chargers are going to cover the spread, then I damn sure am going to take them with the Moneyline.  It is time for Justin Herbert to play like we all think Justin Herbert should be playing.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 1/2
Two tough, stubborn defenses.

Houston Texans -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers won the AFC north by backing in after a Tyler Loop missed 44-yard FG.  The Texans have won 9 in a row and 10 of their last 11.  And that defense!!!  They finished 1st in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, 4th in Rushing Defense, 6th in Third-Down percentage defense, and 6th in Passing Defense.  Pittsburgh's best offensive stats are 15th in Scoring, and 22nd in Passing.

Houston Texans -155 Moneyline (Bet $155 to win $100) at Pittsburgh Steelers
I am getting lucky on this line as it opened at -175.  That being said, this game has all the signs of a trap for gamblers.  An obvious favorite, but on the road, with a wildcard in favor of the underdog (Aaron Rodgers and Chris Boswell kicking in Heinz).  Nevertheless, I am taking Houston.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 1/2
Gonna be a whole lot of field goals in this one!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.
San Francisco just has too much firepower, and Ricky Pearsall hasn't even gotten into a groove yet this year.  I expect big games from McCaffrey and George Kittle.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2
Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).
I mean, this has to hit, right?

Last Week Record: 4-12
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 126-142-3
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-12
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1,085)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,100)

Saturday, September 27, 2025

Picks of the Week - Week 4

 

I need to stop travelling, as it is obviously impacting my pics.  Also out-of-town this weekend, but hopefully we can turn this season around, as last week was horrible.

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
I hated this pick (for good reason), but home team on a short week and I hate taking road intra-divisional favorites.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against Pittsburgh Steelers (in Dublin)
A bad offense (28th) and great defense (6th) in Minnesota versus a horrible offense (30th) AND defense (29th) in Pittsburgh.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
More than 2 touchdowns?  Just a bit too much for my blood to give up.

Tennessee Titans -+7 1/2 at Houston Texans
I am doing this strictly for the points, but I am concerned that maybe this is what Houston needs to right itself after a bad year plus.  Still taking Tennessee - again just for take the points.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions
When is Cleveland going to give Dillon Gabriel a try?  Should be soon.  But, taking them here because Quinshon Judkins could be great, and because Detroit played Monday night.

Washington Commanders +1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
I feel that defensive coordinators have figured out Michael Penix, Jr.  Atlanta's defense is legit so far this year (2nd overall and 1st in pass defense), but Marcos Mariota is a proven veteran.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.

Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New England Patriots
Neither of these teams are good, and New England is better at passing the eye test (especially at QB), but 5 1/2 points?  I'll take them.

New York Giants +6 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This may seem unorthodox, but hear me out here:  First, maybe the Giants get a bit of a jolt from Jaxson Dart; and second, the Chargers are a Pacific time zone team travelling east to play in the 1:00 window.  I will take the Giants, reluctantly.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
Ben Johnson got a taste of winning last week, and although this will not be easy with 3 more starters out for the Bears, most of their playmakers on offense will be there, plus the get a look at rookie Ozzy Trapilo on the offensive line replacing Darnell Wright.  Despite a 1-2 start, Chicago is 9th in scoring offense, and 4th in third-down conversions.  That should be enough.
 
San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Brock Purdy returns.  That has to be enough to put the Niners over the top.  Especially after starting 3-0.  Can they go 4-0?  I think they win outright.

Indianapolis Colts +3 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The Colts are a surprise 3-0, for sure, but unlike Philly their stats back it up.  Number 1 total offense (4th passing/3rd rushing) and number 5 total defens (8th passing/7th rushing).  They may not get to 4-0, but they very well should cover the spread.

Kansas City Chiefs +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens
Nothing about the way they have played this year tells me that KC can keep this close, except that Baltimore has the 31st total defense (31st passing and 30th rushing), and they are on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
The talent differential in this game is enormous.  And we saw last week is that Dallas is BAD!

New York Jets +2 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
This game is just awful.  Horrible.  Give me points.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
I am super-leery of giving up more than a touchdown, but Cincy has the worst total offense in the NFL (27th in passing and 32nd in rushing), AND their defense stinks.  Denver, despite being 1-2, may have started to click this season despite losses the last two weeks.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are a very average 3-0, having the 29th best offense and the 14th best defense.  Tampa Bay will see Tristen Wirfs and Curtis Godwin return.
I looked at Chicago (on the road and too many injuries), Green Bay (giving up too many points), and Washington Commanders.  I am going to take the Buccaneers to win outright on the road, although the 3 1/2 points looks pretty good.

Last Week Record:  5-11
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  21-27
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-2
Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($875)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,050) 

Saturday, December 7, 2024

Picks of the Week

 

Another week in the black!!!  Not enough to erase the deficit from a couple of weeks ago, but one winning week away from making it a streak.  Let's start that streak this weekend!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Home team on a short week; and the Lions really wanting to prove something given that they eeked out a Thanksgiving Day win against Chicago.

Atlanta Falcons +6 at Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta has lost w in a row, and I do not expect them to end that streak, but Minnesota has played in a lot of one-possession games recently, and the one that wasn't, they only scored 23 against the Titans.  I expect this to be close, with Kirk Cousins and the 5th ranked passing offense keeping Atlanta in the game against the 28th ranked passing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
I feel like the Jaguars offense played okay under Mac Jones after Trevor Lawrence went out last week, but not sure this Titans defense is where a backup quarterback can thrive.

New Orleans Saints -5 at New York Giants
At 4-8 the Saints are only two games off the NFC South lead; at 2-10 the Giants are staring at Shadeur Sanders or Cam Ward.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
Mike Evans is a go, and besides, the Buccaneers are 6th in passing even having lost Godwin for the year and Evans for a bunch of games.  Plus, the Raiders are playing in the 1:00 window after travelling from the Pacific Time Zone.  The winner of this game should be called the Pittsburgh Pirates for the next year.
 
Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Cleveland defeated the Steelers in Cleveland just two weeks ago; and they took the Broncos to the brink on Monday night.  But that is the problem - it was Monday, meaning they are on a short week.  I think Pittsburgh remembers that loss and will want to avenge it.

Carolina Panthers +14 at Philadelphia Eagles
Yes, the Eagles are way better than the Panthers, but in Carolina's last 4 games they have won 2 and lost by 3 and 3 in the other two.  This spread looks a bit high.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. New York Jets
Miami has to win out for the opportunity to make the playoffs, and in the span of their last 5 games, they have the Jets, Texans, 49ers, Browns, and Jets.  Don't know how all 5 of the games are going to go, but this week New York is without Breece Hall and Sauce Gardner, so it should start off well for Miami.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
New interim head coach Thomas Brown takes over for deposed Matt Eberflus, but what hasn't changed is that the Bears have covered against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions in consecutive weeks.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Seattle can add to its one-game lead in the west over the Cardinals (and the Rams).  This game seems really close on paper, and when it is close - I take the points.

Los Angeles Rams +3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
This pick is just a hunch, as I think Buffalo might suffer from a bit of a letdown after clinching the AFC East last week.

Los Angeles Chargers +4 at Kansas City Chiefs
Despite their 11-1 record, Kansas City has not really blown anyone away.  The spreads in the last few games:  W2, W3, L9, W2, W6, W7.  If they win this game, this trend will continue; and a good chance exists that they may not even win this game.

Dallas Cowboys +5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
I expect a shootout Monday night as Cincinnati is the #1 ranked passing team in the NFL, and surprisingly, Dallas is 7th.  Cincinnati's pass defense is 27th whereas Dallas's is a respecatble 13th.  What does this all mean?  A passing shootout.  Dallas may not win, but this game should be fun and close.

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers
New interim head coach Thomas Brown takes over for deposed Matt Eberflus, but what hasn't changed is that the Bears have covered against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions in consecutive weeks.
I am going with the fired coach effect here.  The Bears were close in many games before Eberflus was fired; and they might just win this one outright.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-8
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  93-95-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($775)

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Picks of the Week

 

So, back in the red.  Not out of the hole yet, but a much better week.  And, I did my picks ahead of time for last week, so will do that again, making my picks for all of the games ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown!!!  Happy Thanksgiving to all, and may we all be thankful for another winning week!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions -9 1/2
I do not think the Bears will beat Detroit - they won't - but they have played both divisional rivals close in the last two weeks, covering both spreads as they lost to the Packers by 1 and the Vikings by 3.  Maybe a 28-20 type of loss here tomorrow?  And yes, I know, short week and all, but there are three Thursday games,, plus one Friday, so have to try one road team.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants
Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Miami has won 3 in a row, after a close loss to Buffalo, so they are cruising with Tua back behind center.  Jordan Love has an 18:11 TD:INT ratio, and will likely throw one tomorrow.

Kansas City Chiefs -13 v. Las Vegas Raiders
So the Chiefs have been in a lot of close games, and there is no way they should cover this spread given their performances this year.  But, they are home on a short week, Isaiah Pacheco migh be back to give the running game a boost, and the Raiders lost Gardner Minshew for the season, meaning Desmond Ridder picks up the start, although even they cannot decide if it's Ridder or Aiden O'Connell.

Houston Texans -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston needs a win after losing to the Titans, despite forcing 19,000 turnovers, just like they lost to the Lions 3 weeks ago, after making 5 interceptions.  This defense is humming, and the Jaguars offense doesn't need that, although it is rumored that Trevor Lawrence is practicing, and Brian Thomas might be back.  Won't matter.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers face the double-whammy of playing in the east coast in the 1:00 time slot AND having played Monday night, so this is a short week.  The loss of J.K. Dobbins - if he is indeed out with a knee strain, could also seriously hurt.  Give me the noon nightmare.

Tennessee Titans +5 1/2 at Washington Commanders
Tennessee snuck up with a win last week against Houston, and Will Levis has been playing somewhat well.  The Commanders are on a three-game losing streak.  I do not expect that streak to continue, as they should still pull this out, but Tennessee's 1st overall defense and 1st in passing defense could really challenge Washington, and keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona keeps looking on the verge to really take off, but they haven't.  Minnesota is 9th in scoring and 5th in scoring defense.  That is a really good combination, especially since their #1 ranked rush defense could tymie Arizona's 6th ranked rushing offense.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at New England Patriots
Since Anthony Richardson is so up-and-down, and the Colts beat the Jets two weeks ago, and lost to Detroit last week (no harm there), perhaps Richardson is up this week.  That is really my unscientific and unmathematical analysis.  But, evern though Indianapolis is 1-4 in their last 5, those losses have been to the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans.  All playoff teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals
I don't know how Pittsburgh is doing it either, honestly, but their 7th overall defense (4th in rush and scoring) is the best place to start.  The Bengals #1 passing offense will look to take advantage of the Steelers relative weekness against the pass (17th).  Me, I'll just take the points in almost any AFC North matchup.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Jets
I hate making this pick since the game is in the 1:00 time slot in New Jersey, but I believe Geno Smith will find a way to outshine Aaron Rodgers, who may have already caused the team to turn against him.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
Of all the teams way back in the standings, I expect the Dolphins to make the most interesting playoff run, but that is only because the Rams, at 5-6, are only 1 game off the lead of the NFC West.  Being this close with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for a large swath of the beginning of the season, is dangerous for the reast of the NFC West.  They should handle New Orleans, who is coming off a bye week that may have stopped their momentum from a two-game win streak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young has definitely improved since his return from the bench, but Baker Mayfield looks posed to capitalize on a healthy Mike Evans in his return from injury with one full game under his belt.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Baltimore Ravens
I am soooo looking forward to this game.  I am taking Philadelphia because among great teams I would prefer to take the points, but also because Baltimore played on Monday, making this a short week for them.  Both teams only real weakness (Baltimore 31st pass defense/Philadelphia 25th pass offense) will compete against each other, as will their strengths (Baltimore's number 1 total offense/Philadelphia's number 2 total defense; Philadelphia's number 1 rush offense/Baltimores #2 rush defense).  Like I wrote, I am looking forward to this game. 

Buffalo Bills -7 v. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is just too banged up right now to really compete.  Buffalo is only one-game behind Kansas City in the fight for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 v. Clevleand Browns
Two teams I can never figure out, but in this scenario I know Denver is actually good, and Cleveland is not.  If I am going to be surprised, so be it.  Give me the good team.

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants
Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.
This is not me picking Cooper Rush, but rather the fact that Dallas' defense has the chance to just thoroughly humiliate a quarterback that likely should not even be in the NFL.  I know it is a Thanksgiving Thursday game, and short week games are difficult to prognosticate, but I see nothing more obvious than this game this week.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  85-87-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($845)

Saturday, October 12, 2024

Picks of the Week

 


Finally, the type of week I have been looking for this week.  Absolutely incredible.  Hopefully that doesn't mean I fall back-down-to-earth, but so far teh London week games have been good to me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks + 4 v. San Francisco 49ers
Home team, short week didn't work.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
Hopefully like last week the favorite prevails.  The Bears defense is running smoothly - 3rd in third-down percentage, fifthe in scoring, 6th in passing and 8th overall.  Is this the week Doug Pederson gets fired a al Robert Saleh?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
I hate taking a road intra-divsional favorite, but we just do not know what we will be getting from Spencer Rattler making his first start.  Only reason this spread is like this.  I do have the additional incentive of picking against the team playing on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Green Bay is the third-best rushing team in the NFL, whereas Arizona is 28th in stopping the run.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee is coming off a bye and the Colts are battered.  If Will Levis can just keep from committing that one stupid turnover per game ... big If.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 v. Cleveland Browns
Is it time for the Browns to put Wyatt Teller, Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper on the trading block?  A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson return for the Eagles.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 at New England Patriots
Drake Maye is getting his first start for a Patriots team that has sputtered offensively (last in passing and 31st in scoring and 31st overall).  Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson is out from the 8th ranked rushing offense.  Houston meanwhile has the 6th best offense and 4th best defense.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Washington Commanders
I really wanted to take Washington here, as I think they could give the Ravens a game.  However, Washington's offensive strength (2nd in rushing), is also Baltimore's defensive strength (1st in the NFL), and Baltimore's #1 ranked total and rushing offense could actually win the time-of-possession battle that has worked so well for Washington this year.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams offenses rank very low, and both teams defenses rank pretty high, so I will take the points in an intradivisional battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Las Vegas Raiders
It is possible that the Raiders get a jolt from Aiden O'Connell taking the helm, but I don't think so.  I just believe this Raiders team is in disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Carolina Panthers
Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite, but the Panthers are not good; 26th in offense and 28th in defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Is it possible that the Cowboys last-minute win against the Steelers turns their season around?  Sure, but I don't believe it.  Too many injuries on the defensive line and no rushing game (31st in the NFL).

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants
I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at New York Jets
So Robert Saleh was going to demote Nathaniel Hackett.  Aaron Rodgers got wind of it and complained to the owner, who fired Robert Saleh and slapped the interim head coach tag on Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who then pulled play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett.  Huh?

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants
I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.
Very few solid home teams giving up very little points, so I will take Denver getting them.  My other options were Green Bay -5 1/2, Philadelphia -9, and Denver +3, but this looks the most promising.


Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  37-36-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-1 
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $175

 

Thursday, September 5, 2024

Picks of the Week


HOORAY!!!  THE NFL is back.  And for what it's worth, it starts with what is expected to be a humdinger of a game as the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, host the Baltimore Ravens in a rematch of last year's AFC title game.  So, not only is this game important for bragging rights among the NFL's elite, but could also be important for home-field advantage in the playoffs.  Love the NFL, and I am so happyit is back!  Let's get to the games ...

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Kansas City Chiefs
No short week, since this is week 1, so the home team rule doesn't apply.  Plus, there is usually a bit of  a Super Bowl hangover, especially when the quarterback doesn't really yet know his new receivers, plus a rookie left tackle.  And, the best way to defeat the Kansas City Chiefs is to control the ball and win the time of possession.  Enter Derrick Henry.

Philadelphia Eagles - 2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers (in Sao Paulo, Brazil)
The NFL's first game in Brazil, and it's on a Friday.  Excitement, excitement.  Plus, the soccer team that generally plays its home games in the stadium in which this game will be played has a rival which primarily wears green.  Yeah, this is going to be great.  Adding Saquon Barkley - if truly healthy - to this Eagles offense makes them super scary.  They win big.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
New quarterback in Caleb Williams, along with a revamped offense which sees DeAndre Swift, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining D.J. Moore as offensive weapons makes this team incredibly hopeful for a playoff run, similar to the Texans of last season.  To do that, they have to win at home against a Titans team that lost Derrick Henry, and might just be drifting listlessly in mediocrity.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
A new head coach that might actually use Bijan Robinson against a defense that despite T.J. Watt's numbers was actually pretty poor last year?  Yes, please.  Sprinkle in a little "Noon Nightmare" now starting at quarterback for Atlanta in Kirk Cousins.

Minnesota Vikings -1 1/2 at New York Giants
I hate road favorites, but this line is too small too worry about that.  I might be the only one that thinks Sam Darnold showed that he is an actual NFL quarterback in Carolina for a bit (not a star mind you, but serviceable), and sometimes all you need to be is serviceable with Justin Jefferson on the end of your passes.  I think the Giants could be one of the worst teams in the league this year, and this game could show whether that is true or no.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 3 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
I think this game could be really close, so I am taking the points.  Both teams have a lot of offensive firepower, and some studs on defense.  The Dolphins secondary with Jalen Ramsey, Kendell Fuller, Jordan Poyer and Jevon Holland are among the best, if not the best, in the NFL.  The newly glossed Josh Hines-Allen IS one of the best defenders in the NFL for Jacksonville.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 1/2 v. New England Patriots
There is absolutely no reason to watch this game unless you have money on it or play fantasy.  Cincinnati should roll.  Do not let J'Marr Chase's practice holdout worry you.  He can go!

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
West coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time zones fail to cover 2/3rds of the time.  And yes, Arizona is only in the Mountain Time Zone, except they do not use Daylight Savings Time, so they are 3 hours behind.  I am interested in watching both rookie wide receivers:  Marvin Harrison, Jr. for Arizona and Keon Coleman for Buffalo.

Houston Texans -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Week 1 and I am already breaking a traditional NFL gambling rule - don't bet a road favorite in an intradivisional game.  However, I am doing this BECAUSE it is week 1, and that is where we can most take advantage of undervalue (or overvalued lines).  Houston added Danielle Hunter to an already potent defensive line, which could make Anthony Richardson rush throws - and we already know from college he can be incredibly inaccurate.  Plus, it is week 1, which makes it waaaaay too early for Stefon Diggs to start ruining a team's season.  That usually starts around week 11.

Carolina Panthers +4 at New Orleans Saints
This bet is not so much aboute Carolina improving - although they should (I mean, they HAVE to, right?) - as much as I do not think New Orleans is going to be good at all.  I mean, they have like only 6 or 7 players that any other team might want.  I feel I would take the points in this game, no matter which team was receiving them.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders
I really have no idea what this year has in store for either of these teams.  Just taking the home team, really, because Justin Herbert has to be better than Gardner Minshew, right?

Seattle Seahawks -6 v. Denver Broncos
There are a lot of people high on the Denver Broncos, especially given Bo Nix's preseason.  Most of those people are intrigued by his fantasy numbers, and not necessarily the actual football games.  I will wait for a few games unitl I consider myself impressed yet.  For now, I'll just say that Patrick Surtain II cannot cover DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, AND Jaxson Smith-Njigba.  Denver is going to have to improve a defense that gave up a million yards and 1,300 points to the Bears and Dolphins last year (please not hyperbole).

Washington Commanders +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another hyped rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, takes the helm for the Commanders.  Washington played a ton of close games last year, while throwing more pass attempts than any team in the league.  Daniels can make things happen with his legs should a pass attempt break down, and he is incredibly accurate.  Like all rookie quarterbacks, he will have some setbacks, but I think he keeps this game close, at least.

Dallas Cowboys + 3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
Forget playoff failures, this Cowboys team does have talent; and certainly enough talent to win this game outright, so I'll take points.

Detroit Lions -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
This Detroit Lions team seems poised to make a jump to Super Bowl contender this year, and has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball.  The Rams have some star skill position players in Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua, and the venerable Matthew Stafford throwing to them, and they are going to need to score as many points as they can given their (lack of) defensive makeup.  Aaron Donald, in the conversation as the greatest DT ever, retired, and it is going to be hard to find a replacement for that push up the middle.

San Francisco 49ers -4 1/2 v. New York Jets
Until we see otherwise, San Francisco is a definitive pick most weeks.  The Jets defense can be outstanding, and Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson are potential stars on the offensive side of the ball.  Can Aaron Rodgers stay on the field for more than a quarter AND keep his mouth shut?  We shall see.

Big Bet:

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
New quarterback in Caleb Williams, along with a revamped offense which sees DeAndre Swift, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze joining D.J. Moore as offensive weapons makes this team incredibly hopeful for a playoff run, similar to the Texans of last season.  To do that, they have to win at home against a Titans team that lost Derrick Henry, and might just be drifting listlessly in mediocrity.
I am all in on this team for this game:  Home game hype, #1 overall draft pick QB hype, tons of offensive weapons, and a team defense that was the best in the NFL once Head Coach Matt Eberflus took over play-calling in the middle of the season and Montez Sweat came over from the Commanders in a mid-season trade.  If Sweat can get any modicum of pressure from the other side of the line via DeMarcus Walker or rookie fifth-round pick Austin Booker, opposing offenses will have to look out all season.

As this is week 1, I present to you last season's final tally.

Last Year's Recap

Year-to-Date Record:  169-128-14
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-13
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $200.50
Playoffs' Winnings (Losses):  $1,355.50
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,450.50

Record

Last Week's Record:  0-0
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-0
Year-to-Date Record:  0-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): 

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Picks of the Week

 


UGLY, UGLY, UGLY!!!  That is the only way to explain last week's results.  And this week is likely to be even worse with so many starters not even playing, some teams with incentives, and a lot with not.  Who even knows.  Prayers and luck this week, for sure.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, I know I should always pick the home team on a short week, but Pittsburgh needs a win to qualify for the playoffs - with some help - and Baltimore is sitting Lamar Jackson and other starters, and even playing Laquon Treadwell.

Indianapolis Colts +1 /2 v. Houston Texans
Both teams have something to play for, as the winner is in the playoffs, whereas the loser is not.  Can't take the visiting team on a short week in both games, and this game should be incredibly close.  Now if only Tyler Goodson holds onto the damn ball!!!  (Yes I know, it was thrown a bit behind him too.)

New Orleans Saints -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
The winner of this game wins the NFC South at 8-8 IF Carolina manages to upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, so this game is important.  Sains have won 3 of their last 4, including defeating Tampa Bay last week; whereas the Falcons have lost 3 of their last 4, including being destroyed by the Bears last week and a 9-7 loss to the hapless Panthers.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
Simply put, there is just too much at stake for Jacksonville, as a win gives them the AFC South title, whereas a loss puts them out of the playoffs entirely.  Jacksonville defense has been horrid this year  (22nd overall and 27th against the pass), but Tennessee's offense has been equally putrid (27th overall and 28th passing).  With Trevor Lawrence and Will Levis both hobbling, could it come down to C.J. Beatherd v. Ryan Tannehill?  I think Calvin Ridley finally shows up, and the Jaguars win, even as favorites on the road.

Detroit Lions -4 v. Minnesota Vikings
Does Dan Campbell strike you as someone that lets his foot off the gas?  Yeah, me neither.

New England -2 1/2 v. New York Jets
Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games.  And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 at Carolina Panthers
This game is way too eeerily similar to the Jaguars situation.  Buccaneers win and their are the NFC South champions; lose and they go home.  Also playing the basement-dweller in their division.  I imagine that one of these two games is an upset, although I cannot pick either of them to happen.  Baker Mayfield rolls.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Jeff Driskel starting fot the Browns as Cleveland is stiting a number of its star players.  Jake Browning might be playing for a potential starting job on another team for next year, or at least a prime backup role on a squad with an oft-injured QB.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Chicago Bears
The Bears are playing better than anybody, having won 5 of 7, and in those two losses had double-digit leads into the 4th quarter.  But, the Packers have the chance to make the playoffs.  And no matter how much ever Bears player and fan hates the Packers and would love to knock them out of the playoffs, Green Bay has much more incentive in this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 at New York Giants
God do I hate betting this many road intra-divisional favorites, but the Eagles NEED this.  Not so much for the playoffs or the divisional title (although a win with help could give them the latter), but they just need to play a good ball game.

Arizona Cardinals + 3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle has just been playing too many close games.  Arizona has the 6th best rushing team in the NFL and Seattle is 30th against the rush.  James Conner and Michael Carter for the cover.

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Los Angeles Rams
Nobody is playing, so who cares.  I gotta hope the 49ers depth is better than the Rams depth.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Denver Broncos
This Raiders team has been playing inspired football under Antonio Pierce.  If they just had a talented quarterback.  I wonder if they would trade this year's, 2025's and 2026's firsts, this year's second, and next year's third for the number one overall pick?  Or, instead of 2026's first, throw in a player?

Los Angeles Chargers -3 v. Kansas City Chiefs
We will have a Blaine Gabbert sighting!!!  Although to be honest, Kansas City hasn't been amazing even with Patrick Mahomes.  I'll take Easton Stick sounds like I am in a craft drink lounge.

Dallas Cowboys -13 at Washington Commanders
Too many points, on the road, in an intradivsional game - except, the Cowboys need this to win the division, and the Commanders aren't playing for anything, except for a trade with the Bears if they like Caleb Williams.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Miami Dolphins
I might as well keep the road favorites train rolling.  The Bills are the third-betting favorite to win the Super Bowl, and if they lose this game they miss the playoffs.  The Dolphins are without Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle, not to mention their rush edges Jaelen Phillips and Bradley Chubb.


Big Bet:

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. New York Jets
Despite their 4-12 record, New England has been playing tough, close games.  And, given that this might be Bill Belichick last game, I expect the Patriots to win this game fairly convincingly.
Had to select a home team, and at least this will give me a reason to watch this game.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  134-108-14
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $920

Saturday, December 23, 2023

Picks of the Week

 

Pathetically average week, but losing the Big Bet hurts a lot!  Try to turn this around this week, with a good start on Thursday!  Merry Christmas everyone, and good luck betting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. New Orleans Saints
Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I know that I am going against the above adage - home team on a short week, but the Bengals have been cruising under Jake Browning.  But, could it be stupid to bet against Rudolph (Mason) on Christmas weekend?!

Buffalo Bills -12 at Los Angeles Chargers
This is absolutely ridiculous!  I mean, I get why it is this high - what is an Easton Stick anyway? - but why am I picking it?  Gut feeling, and the Chargers have among the worst defenses in the NFL (30th overall, 28th scoring, 30th passing yards)  Calling Stefon Diggs!

Chicago Bears -4 v. Arizona Cardinals
Chicago took the league's best defense down to the wire, and if not for a dropped TD on the final Hail Mary, would have beat them. Arizona's is nowehere near the level of the Browns (26th overall, 31st rushing, 31st scoring), but Chicago's defense may be close to that level now.

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Seattle coming off an emotional upset win on Monday night, are ripe for an upset, especially since they are playing on a short week.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta's defense is playing very well this year (9th in total defense), and they were starting to use Bijan Robinson a bit, and then last week's loss to the horrendous Panthers happened.  And, Gardner Minshew is ripe to take this team to the playoffs, especially with Jonathan Taylor back.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Houston Texans
Case Keenum is a legitimate NFL quarterback, and is not going to be scared by being on the field.  The problem for him is that Cleveland's defense just runs through everyone.  And, Joe Flacco is still a legit NFL quarterback as well.  He might get sacked a few more times than normal, but he will fling it around the field.

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers
Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

Washington Commanders +3 at New York Jets 
I don't like this line one bit.  I actually wrote it selecting Washington, and picking New York.  Either way, I don't like it.  But, I really don't Trevor Siemian.

Detroit Lions -3 at Minnesota Vikings
This Lions offense is really potent (3rd overall, 4th passing, 2nd rushing, 5th scoring), and although Nick Mullens can play, Detroit is within range of home-field advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is in the midst of a three-game slump, and even with Trevor Lawrence being out of concussion protocol, their 25th ranked defense (overall/29th passing and 21st scoring) may have its collective hands full with a team that has won 3 games in a row scoring 34, 29, and 21 in those wins.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. Dallas Cowboys
I honestly think that the Cowboys are going to win this game.  But ... I cannot pick 3 visiting teams on short weeks, and I already picked Cincinnati and Buffalo.

New England Patriots +7 at Denver Broncos
New England has played teams tough, losing by 10 last week to Kansas City.  Denver is not Kansas City.  I don't think Denver can score enough points to cover this spread against the Patriots defense (8th total, 2nd in rushing defense).

Las Vegas Raiders +10 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
There is no way Las Vegas is as good as their 63-point outburst last week, but they just may be good enough to cover a double digit spread against a team that has been struggling a bit in the past month or so.

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 1/2 v. New York Giants
A double-digit spread against an intra-divisional rival is almost always an automatic no-no (see Raiders above).  But, this is where the Tommy DeVito experience comes crashing to the ground like a feast of sleeping with 7 fishes.

Baltimore Ravens +6 at San Francisco 49ers
I just think that this game is going to be incredibly close.  Because of that, I'll take the points.  But, Nick Bosa might have the best game of any edge rusher ever.  I am assuming that he is going to be extra motivated (IYKYK) against the one team in the NFL with an all-black quarterback room (3 QBs, OC, QB coach).  Baltimore still keeps it close.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers
Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.
I hate picking visiting teams giving points as my big bet, but there are not a lot of other choices out there.  I thought about the Browns, but they are in the same situation as the Packers being on the road giving up points.  The Colts and Raiders were also on my radar.  I am just hoping that Aaron Jones comes back from injury and has a terrific game (as I need him for fantasy too!)

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  119-93-12
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,400

Saturday, May 7, 2022

Bearing Down on the Draft


Now that the Newness of the 2022 NFL Draft has waned, and the 11 new draftees (plus 16 UDFAs, plus upwards of 40+ camp invitees) have started rookie camp, I decided that it was time to unique reflect on my favorite team's draft.  Instead of just analyzing the draft day selections and trades that gave the Bears 11 picks, instead of the 6 they possessed entering the draft, I am going to choose, in order, my favorite Bears' first-round picks since I have been alive.  This is not my ranking of the best players, although being a great player enhances your chances of finishing high in this list, just my favorite picks.  For the most part, I will offer no analysis, but I might in certain circumstances.

For a time frame, I was born in 1973, however I was born after the draft that year, so this covers only those first round picks from 1974 through last week.  Given that in some years the Bears had 2 first round picks, there are 54 total picks to rank.  Here we go, in ascending order ...

54.  2018 - None (Involved in the Mitchell Trubisky trade, See number 53)

53.  2017 - Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina - So, I think he is a lot better than some players on this list, but as a draft pick?!  C'MON MAN!  DeShaun Watson was the pick!

52.  2015 - Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

51.  2012 - Shea McClellin, DE/OLB, Boise State - He is only as high as he is because of the Aaron Rodgers play.

50.  1998 - Curtis Enis, RB, Penn State - So, Curtis Enis is this low not because he ended up being a horrible player (his career was shortened by knee injuries), but because the Bears already had Raymont Harris and Rashaan Salaam on the roster.  Not great, but way better than a receiving corps consisting of Curtis Conway and Bobby Engram and Ricky Proehl.  Why do I mention wide receivers?  Because Randy Moss was available at this pick!!!  I was actually working at my bar (I didn't own it, but I OWNED it), during the draft, and I disavowed my allegiance to the Bears because of this pick.  Yes, I know, short lived, but still.

49.  2002 - Marc Columbo, T, Boston College - Columbo was a decent player, but this pick was bad because the Bears held onto this pick rather than sending it to the New England Patriots for Drew Bledsoe, who could have led them for a couple of years until the Bears found their permanent QB (which I hope is Justin Fields.

48.  2003 - Michael Haynes, DE, Penn State
47.  2011 - Gabe Carimi, T, Wisconsin
46.  1974 - Dave Gallagher, DT, Michigan
45.  1974 - Waymond Bryant, LB, Tennessee State

44.  2005 - Cedric Benson, RB, Texas - He cried on stage because his dream of being drafted had been fulfilled.  Now, ordinarily I don't care if someone is emotional at an appropriate moment, but Benson knew he was going to not only be drafted, but land somewhere in the top 6 or 8 since the season ended.

43.  1977 - Ted Albrecht, T, California
42.  1976 - Dennis Lick, T, Wisconsin
41.  2008 - Chris Williams, T, Vanderbilt
40.  1999 - Cade McNown, QB, UCLA
39.  1994 - John Thierry, DE, Alcorn State 
38.  1988 - Brad Muster, FB, Stanford
37.  2010 - None
36.  2009 - None
35.  2006 - None
34.  1997 - None
33.  1978 - None
32.  2003 - Rex Grossman, QB, Florida
31.  2001 - David Terrell, WR, Michigan
30.  1988 - Wendell Davis, WR, LSU
29.  1991 - Stan Thomas, T, Texas

28.  2020 - None (Khalil Mack Trade, 2nd number 1 traded)

27.  1995 - Rashaan Salaam, RB, Colorado
26.  1987 - Jim Harbaugh, QB, Michigan
25.  1979 - Al Harris, DE, Arizona State
24.  1992 - Alonzo Spellman, DE, Ohio State
23.  2013 - Kyle Long, G, Oregon
22.  1996 - Walt Harris, CB, Mississippi State
21.  1985 - William Perry, DT, Clemson

20.  2016 - Leonard Floyd, LB, Georgia - I LOVED this pick at the time.  Didn't really fulfill his potential in Chicago, but has been better since he left.

19.  1986 - Neal Anderson, RB, Florida
18.  1993 - Curtis Conway, WR, USC

17.  2022 - None (Fields Trade)

16.  2014 - Kyle Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech
15.  1989 - Donnell Woolford, CB, Clemson

14.  2004 - Tommie Harris, DT, Oklahoma - His 2004 highlight tape shown after his selection at the draft was AMAZING!

13.  1983 - Willie Gault, WR, Tennessee

12.  1980 - Otis Wilson, LB, Louisville
11.  1990 - Mark Carrier, S, USC
10.  1979 - Dan Hampton, DT, Arkansas
9.  1981 - Keith Van Horne, T, USC

8.  2007 - Greg Olsen, TE, Miami - I am a huge Miami Hurricanes fan!!!  G-REG!!!

7.  2000 - Brian Urlacher, LB, New Mexico

6.  2019 - None (Khalil Mack Trade)

5.  1982 - Jim McMahon, QB, Brigham Young

4.  1983 - Jim Covert, T, Pittsburgh - Covert was selected in the great QB draft of 1983 (John Elway [1st - Baltimore Colts], Todd Blackledge [7th - Kansas City Chiefs], Jim Kelly [14th - Buffalo Bills], Tony Eason [15th - New England Patriots], Ken O'Brien [24th - New York Jets], and Dan Marino [27th - Miami Dolphins]).  The Bears were not in the QB market having just selected Jim McMahon in the first round the previous year, but, as in all NFL drafts, they had to do their due diligence on all the QBs.  After watching tape of Dan Marino, head coach Mike Ditka noted that between his quick release and great offensive line Dan Marino never got sacked.  Ditka asked his scouts if any of the linemen were available in the draft.  When told that the left tackle was a senior and highly rated, Ditka reportedly said, "Great!  Let's get him!"

3.  1984 - Wilber Marshall, LB, Florida

2.  2021 - Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State - Hopefully he can be great.  Ranked this high on potential, and on the fact that this was the first time since McMahon that the Bears truly addressed their need at QB by trading up to draft Fields.

1.  1975 - Walter Payton, RB - Jackson State - OF COURSE!

Saturday, January 5, 2019

Picks of the Week



OK - so I got hammered to end the season, but I don't care because the playoffs are here.  Actually, I do care, but it is my own fault for rushing through the picks in about 10-15 minutes of time.  The playoffs is where I make my money (hopefully), and I am much more prepared for this.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +2 at Houston Texans
In what is listed as the closest game this weekend, I will take the road underdog Indianapolis Colts.  Both of these teams are amazing stories to have even made the playoffs.  Indianapolis started 1-5, including a week 4 loss to the Texans 37-34 in Indianapolis.  Houston started 0-3 before running off a 9 game winning streak commencing with that week 4 victory over Indianapolis, which subsequently ended the streak in week 14 in Houston.  These games are close, so I will take the points.

Indianapolis Colts +110 (Bet $100 to win $110) at Houston Texans
So both teams won one game each against the other by 3 points, but the week 4 win by the Texans was mostly due to a completely boneheaded decision by the Colts coaching staff.  I will take Indianapolis because (1) I think they are going to win; and (2) less of a bet, even though the money line is close.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
This is basically in Russell Wilson we trust, and certainly more than we trust Dak Precott.  While Prescott can lean on Ezekial Elliott, Chris Carson is on slouch, averaging almost as many yards per carry as Elliott (4.66 to 4.72) and with more TDs (9 to 6).  If Dallas wins, it is going to need a bigger game from Amari Cooper than Seattle gets from its receivers, but again, I trust Russell to get the ball to his receivers in better spots.

Seattle Seahawks +125 (Bet $100 to win $125) at Dallas Cowboys
For many of the reasons that I listed in the previous bet, I think Seattle is going to win this one outright.  Seattle is first in rushing in the NFL and 11th in scoring defense, and they get off the field well, as they are 5th in third down percentage defense.  Dallas is 5th in rushing defense, but only 16th in scoring defense and 27th in third down percentage defense.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys OVER 43 1/2.
A final score of 24-20 hits the over.  I can picture that type of score here.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
This game is a tough pick because almost everything I have seen this year tells me the Chargers are better, even Baltimore's 22-10 victory over the Chargers.  But, one of my standard rules is do not take a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, so that, coupled with that earlier victory by the Ravens over the Chargers makes me take the home team here.  Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards and Kenneth Dixon could keep the ball away from Philip Rivers and the Chargers offense, thus controlling the game.

Los Angeles Chargers +130 (Bet $100 to win $130) at Baltimore Ravens
Yes, so part of this is hedging my bet, but the Baltimore pick is -145, and I don't feel that confident in a rookie quarterback in his first playoff game, no matter how athletic he is.

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 42
Everything about this game screams defensive struggle, from Baltimore's defense (1st overall, 2nd in scoring defense, third in third down percentage, 4th in rushing defense and 5th in passing defense) to the Chargers defense (9th in total defense, passing defense and rushing defense and 8th in scoring defense) to the previous 22-10 game.  The under it is.

Philadelphia Eagles +6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
So there are a number of reasons for this selection.  First, it would ease my pain from any Bears loss.  Second, even if the Bears do win I can see this being close.  Third, the Eagles just play better with Nick Foles at quarterback.  There, I said it.

Chicago Bears -250 (Bet $250 to win $100) v. Philadelphia Eagles
Despite all of the above being true, this Chicago Bears defense is legitimate.  Pro Bowlers on the inside of the line (Akiem Hicks), rushing from the outside (Khalil Mack), covering on the corner (Kyle Fuller) and at safety (Eddie Jackson), with Mack, Fuller and Jackson as All-Pros (with Tarik Cohen as punt returner).  The defense is 1st in scoring defense at 17.7 points per game, 1st in rushing defense at 80.8 yards per game, 3rd in total defense, 4th in third down defense and 7th in passing defense.  And, despite an inexperienced quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky, the Bears were 9th in scoring in the league.  Philly meanwhile is 14th in total offense (18th in scoring) and 23rd in total defense (but 12th in scoring defense).  The Bears should win this game at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears OVER 42 1/12
I am not happy with this pick, but I am going with it as I see the defenses/return teams setting up two easy scores

Big Bet
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans OVER 48.
In the lowest scoring of the two games between these two teams, they went 24-21 (45 points).  I think the offenses make enough plays to get this to the over, and even if the defense makes a great play with a turnover, they might score themselves or set up an easy score.
I was honestly torn between making this my big bet or the Colts + 2 1/2, but I think we will see some points in this game.


Last Week's Record:  6-10
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  124-121-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($665)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($880)

Sunday, December 30, 2018

Picks of the Week



On vacation so I don't really have time to analyze my own picks, but it is week 17 so who knows who is actually going to play and for how long anyway.  Just going to wing it, before I have to pack and check out of my Air-BnB in Nashville. Place is hopping for tonight's game, though.  Lots of Colts fans in town.  Besides, all of the normal and usual betting rules are thrown out the window this week as each team will be playing with different motivations (qualify for the playoffs, don't get hurt for the playoffs, don't put too much on film for the playoffs, play backups to see if they are ready for next year, throw in the towel, etc.).

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Miami Dolphins +5 at Buffalo Bills

Green Bay Packers -8 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Houston Texans -7 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots

New Orleans -7 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers 

New York Giants -7 v. Dallas Cowboys

Atlanta Falcons -2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Minnesota Vikings -6 v. Chicago Bears

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Oakland Raiders +14 at Kansas City Chiefs

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at Washington Racists

Los Angeles Chargers -7 at Denver Broncos

San Francisco 49ers + 10 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Arizona Cardinals +13 at Seattle Seahawks

Indianapolis Colts -4 at Tennessee Titans

Big Bet
New York Jets +13 1/2 at New England Patriots
The Jets have been playing well since Sam Darnold's return, and this is not the normal Patriots.  The Patriots may still win and secure a playoff bye, but this should not be a runaway victory for them.


Last Week's Record:  7-8-1
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  118-111-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($30)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($215)

Sunday, December 9, 2018

Picks of the Week



A winning week last week, brings me back into the black for the season.  As we head down the stretch in the final quarter of the season, time to capitalize on everything we have learned about the teams this year to date.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Once again, taking the home team on a short week pays off, but this time with the added bonus of doing it against a Jacksonville team "led" by Cody Kessler.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. New York Jets
Buffalo has basically been playing with Josh Allen behind center, even if he is doing it with his legs much more than his arm.  The Jets and their rookie quarterback have yet to jell this season.

Carolina Panthers -1 at Cleveland Browns
I really wanted to take Cleveland here, but Carolina really needs this win to get back in the playoff hunt, and to end their four-game losing streak.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
To be fair, nobody has any idea how the Packers are going to react to the firing of head coach Mike McCarthy and Assistant Head Coach/Defensive Coordinator Winston Moss after last week's loss.  So, my guess is that Aaron Rodgers tries to validate the firing with a huge game.

Indianapolis Colts +4 at Houston Texans
Can the Texans win their 10th game in a row?  Of course they can, and I suspect they will.  But, Indianapolis is going to make this tough for them and will score quite a bit of points themselves.  Maybe a repeat of week 4's 37-34 Texans win will cover the spread.  Of course, if the Colts break the winning streak then they will win this beat too, so I am going Colts.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens defense is first overall in total defense and points allowed, second in passing defense and third in rushing defense.  I am not saying they will stop the Chiefs, but they will make it harder for them to score.  Plus, with the newly found rushing attack behind rookies Gus Edwards and Lamar Jackson, the Ravens will try to control the clock.

Miami Dolphins +9 v. New England Patriots
For some reason, the Dolphins always have a trick or two for the Patriots when they come to Miami.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 v. New Orleans Saints
New Orleans keeps cruising, but the intra-divisional rival Tampa Bay makes it tough for the Saints.  Do not expect a repeat of the week 1 Bucs victory, especially with Ryan Fitzpatrick on the bench.

New York Giants -3 at Washington Racists
I feel like their is an opportunity for me or my friends to play quarterback for Washington this year.  Marcus, are you available if they need you?

Los Angeles Chargers  -15 v. Cincinnati Bengals
This is a ridiculous line, and nobody in their right mind would ever select any NFL giving 15 points ... unless they were playing against Jeff Driskel.  Can somebody say collusion?

Denver Broncos -3 at San Francisco 49ers
I hate taking road favorites, but I have to do so here.  The 49ers are going nowhere fast, and Denver, believe it or not, has an opportunity to still make the playoffs.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals
Detroit is not good, but I feel that they at least give themselves opportunities to win.  Despite being the proverbial straw that broke Mike McCarthy's back, Arizona has not shown us much of anything this year.  I'll take Detroit.

Dallas Cowboys -3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Both of these teams would love to knock the other one down a peg.  A win by Philadelphia puts them in a tie for first in the NFC East.  A win by Dallas virtually assures Philadelphia of missing the playoffs.  Plus, Dallas has been a completely different team since the acquisition of Amari Cooper.  Philadelphia is not the same team as last year's Super Bowl winners.

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Oakland Raiders
Is it possible that Roethlisberger throws for 500 yards?  I think so.  In the past 5 years, double digit favorites have covered almost 60% of the time, so I will take a chance on the Steelers (as well as the Chargers).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Los Angeles Rams
Just a gut feeling.Not saying the Bears win, but this game is shaping up to be very interesting.  We all know about the Rams offense (2nd in points, 2nd overall, 4th in rushing and passing), but the Rams defense has been markedly pedestrian, (17th in passing defense, 18th in rushing defense and total defense, and 19th in points allowed).  They will give up yards and points to Chicago.  Chicago is 5th in points scored and 5th in points allowed.  They are second in rush defense, so Todd Gurley might find yards tough to come by in Soldier Field.

Seattle Seahawks -3 v. Minnesota Vikings
An incredibly important NFC battle for both squads trying to jockey for widcard position.  For those who have not been paying attention, Russell Wilson has been playing out-of-his-mind!!!!  I'll take Russell Wilson.

Big Bet
New York Giants -3 at Washington Racists
I feel like their is an opportunity for me or my friends to play quarterback for Washington this year.  Marcus, are you available if they need you?
Saquon Barkley is coming into his own, so even though the Giants are on the road and giving up points, that shouldn't be a problem against..... who is it again?  Oh yeah ... Mark Sanchez.

Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  96-87-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $90

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Picks of the Week



Wow - Last week was a complete annihilation, eliminating all of my gains for the previous three weeks.  Looks like a need a comeback week, and 2 for 3 on Thanksgiving is a good start.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears
Chicago is better, but the are the visiting team on a short week, a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, and starting a backup quarterback.  I took the points at home, and I would do so again.

Dallas Cowboys -7 v. Washington Racists
The contra scenario to the above.  I took the better team at home in an intradivisional game when the opponent was away on a short week starting a backup quarterback.

New Orleans Saints -12 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
If this game was Sunday, I doubt that I would have taken New Orleans, but on a short week ...

Oakland Raiders +12 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens win this easily, I just don't think they score enough to cover this spread.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 at Buffalo Bills
Hopefully the teams performance against the Steelers last week left a bad taste in the Jaguars mouth.  I am expecting retribution against Buffalo today.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks
Two teams fighting for their playoff life.  Carolina at home, and hosting the early game against a team from the Pacific time zone.  Carolina prevails, and covers.

Cleveland Browns +1 at Cincinnati Bengals
I just feel that Cleveland is ready to turn the corner, and a Cincinnati team struggling on offense (27th in total offense, though 11th in points) AND defense (last in total defense, rush defense and third down percentage; 31st in pass defense and points allowed), is ripe for a home loss.

New York Jets +12 1/2 v. New England Patriots
Yes Tom Brady is playing, but how hurt is he, really?  An improving Jets defense should keep this game close, enough.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 v. New York Giants
My gut really told me to take the Giants and the points here today, but the Giants defense really is not stopping anyone.  Coupled with the fact that despite Saquon Barkley, New York does not run the ball particularly well (29th in rushing offense).  Yes I know they hit Barkley out of the backfield, but including that and Beckham, they are still only 13th in passing offense.  For Philadelphia, it is now or never to go on a run to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
I originally took San Francisco here, but they are a west coast team travelling east for the early game, and I just couldn't do it.  Tampa in an ugly win.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at Los Angeles Chargers
Only because the spread is so high.  Arizona is 4th in passing defense and adequate (17th overall) i n total defense, so this might keep things close enough.

Miami Dolphins +9 at Indianapolis Colts
Nothing about the two teams' years says that Miami should win this game, and Indianapolis does score a ton of points (5th in the NFL), but with Drake and Gore running the football, the score stays close enough for Miami to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Denver Broncos
I have to take Antonio Brown at his word that he is playing this week despite having/not having the sickle-cell trait.  Pittsburgh's defense is much, much better than at the beginning of the season, and their offense is 4th in points and 5th in total defense.

Minnesota Vikings -3 v. Green Bay Packers
Both of the teams need a win to boost any chance at the playoffs.  Minnesota's defense wins this for the Vikings.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).

Big Bet
Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans
Houston lost in week 1 to Tennessee, but this is not that same team as DeShaun Watson has some more experience under his belt post-injury.  Texans defense is very stout (5th in points allowed, 6th in rush defense, 7th in total defense and 8th in pass defense) whereas the Titans' offense is not (30th in total offense and passing offense and 28th in points scored).
I hate picking my big bet on Monday night, but Houston is at home, not giving up too many points, and the night will be emotional with the recent death of their founder/owner Bob McNair.


Last Week's Record:  3-8-2
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  80-72-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($745)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($160)

Sunday, December 27, 2015

Picks of the Week

No analysis this week as I am literally shopping for pre-game accouterments for the battle of former NFC Central rivals the almighty Chicago Bears and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium.

San Diego Charpers + 5 1/2 at Oakland Raiders

Washington Racists +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Chicago Bears

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Buffalo Bills -6 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco 49ers +9 at Detroit Lions

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Miami Dolphins -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

New England Patriots -3 at New York Jets

 Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers -10 at Baltimore Ravens

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at New Orleans Saints

Arizona Cardinals -4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks -12 v. St. Louis Rams

New York Giants +7 at Minnesota Vikings

Denver Broncos -3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks -12 v. St. Louis Rams

Last Week's Record: 7-9
Year To Date: 114-103-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 13-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($140)
Year to Date Winnings (Losses): $1,155

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Picks of the Week



Week four is upon us, which means it is now times for my "Picks of the Week" during a bye week.  A bye week just means that every loss is that much more crucial when it comes to losing money.  Thus, much care must be taken in deciding which teams to pick.  Even given that, I am coming off a fantastic week, and I look to keep the momentum going forward.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Washington Whatever Name They Are Going to Be Called Soon - 3 1/2 v. New York Giants
Both teams played much, much better last week, but the difference is Washington seems to look  much more comfortable with Kirk Cousins playing quarterback.  Defenses have to respect the passing game, and Alfred Morris, whereas nobody really respects Eli's ability to beat them.

Carolina Panthers +3 at Baltimore Ravens
I honestly cannot figure out the Ravens.  They blew out the Steelers, but that was on a Thursday night.  I'll take the points, especially since with each game, Cam Newton feels more and more comfortable with Kelvin Benjamin.  A hodge-podge running back crew for the Panthers, but they were not going to rush for many yards against the Ravens anyway.

Chicago Bears + 1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
I really was not sure how to pick this game given my allegiance for the Bears, but the Packers are giving them points even while looking shaky on offense.  The Bears defense has been opportunistic, and if they can continue to improve, this team could get really scary.

Houston Texans -3 v. Buffalo Bills
Neither the Texans nor the Bills are even remotely as good as they looked the first two weeks, but I think the Texans are a bit better overall, and a ton better defensively.  Harvard boy Ryan Fitzpatrick will look to gain a little revenge against the last team for which he started.

Detroit Lions -1 at New York Jets
I do not generally like to pick road favorites, especially in close games, however, the Jets are on a short week and the playing against Calvin Johnson is not the most likely way to improve an already porous pass defense.

Oakland Raiders + 3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins (In London)
Neither team has looked very good this year, but the Raiders are coming off a close loss to the New England Patriots while the Dolphins were just manhandled by the Kansas City Chiefs.  The Dolphins also decided to arrive in London later than the Raiders, so perhaps they might be a bit more jet lagged.  You could tell me that the Raiders needed the extra time because they are even three time zones further away, but the Raiders never went back home after last week's game against the Patriots.  Here is hoping that somewhere former Dolphins great Channing Crowder is reminiscing about knowing "London" Fletcher.

Pittsburgh Steelers -7 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
At the beginning of the season this line would have looked ludicrous, but the Buccaneers have looked horrible and Le'veon Bell has looked like the best running back in football.  The Steelers are down a bunch of linebackers, but it is about time for Sean Spence to start playing some football.

Jacksonville Jaguars +13 at San Diego Chargers
The Jaguars are easily the worst team in football and they are on the road, but sometimes a change to a fresh, young quarterback is all a team needs to get going in the right direction, especially one that has looked so poised so far.  They may not win, but I would hope they could keep this within two touchdowns.

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta's two high-flying wins have both been at home, but the Vikings play indoors, so Atlanta's speed and timing should not be affected.  Our first official look at Teddy Bridgewater as a starter.  Some talent there, but not as ready as Blake Bortles (see above).

Philadelphia Eagles +4 1/2 at San Francisco
San Francisco has looked erratic, especially offensively, and porous, especially defensively.  The Eagles have won 3 close games so far, so there is no reason to expect that this will not also be a close one.  When it's close, take the points.

Dallas Cowboys  +3 v. New Orleans Saints
Everything about this game says that the Saints will win big, but for some reason I cannot get away from picking the Cowboys.  The Cowboys are not great, mind you, but I do not believe the Saints are either.  This could be similar to last week for Dallas where they go down early, and fight their way back.

New England Patriots -3 at Kansas City Chiefs
Another road favorite.  The Patriots could very well be the AFC's version of the Saints, a team that may be getting by on reputation and may not actually be that good.  That being said, with Jamaal Charles back, the Chiefs may work too hard at getting him his touches, which could focus the Patriots defense.  May be a close game so it is difficult to give the points, but I will in this case.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis's 1-2 record is a bit deceiving in that their two losses came against Philadelphia and at Denver, two very good teams, and two games in which the Colts still looked pretty good.  Tennessee's 1-2 record is also very deceiving in that they might not even be that good.  I do not like giving up more than a touchdown in my big bet, but I do like going against a bad team starting Charlie Whitehurst at QB.

Previous Week's Record: 10-6
Year to Date: 25-23
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 2-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $490
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $105