Picks of the Week - NFL Week 9

Well, last week was back to losing.  My only solace is that we are all collectively doing poorly this year.  And if you say you are not - you are lying!!!  I am in a picks confidence league where we pick games straight up - and GOD WAS LAST WEEK BRUTAL FOR EVERYBODY!!!  So I got that going for me - which ISN'T NICE!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Yes, I know that Miami is the home team on a short week, but Baltimore looked sharp last week - as did the Dolphins, to be fair (Cue:  "To Be Fair!" chorus from Letterkenny) - but Baltimore will have Lamar Jackson back, and the Dolphins, well won't.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Not sure that I like this pick very much, except the penalties against the Bears, especially the offense, have to come down at some point, right?  Joe Flacco is settling in well at QB - I mean who wouldn't with J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins - but that defense is brutal (31st overall, 30th in passing defense, 32nd against the run and in scoring defense), so I have to pick a bounce-back game from the Bears.

 

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

Other than the records, these two teams are incredibly evenly matched, especially on defense where Houston has the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense AND scoring defense), and Denver is close behind (5th in scoring/6th in total defense).  So in cases like this, I will take the points in what should be a close game.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at New York Giants

I ordinarily would hate selecting a west coast team playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, especially one GIVING points, but two main factors here for me:  (1) San Francisco received a bit of a comeuppance last week losing to the Texans, so they should be fired up for this game (and Ricky Pearsall should be returning); and (2) The Giants entire fanbase - and the fandom of every white NFL fan in America - deflated last week with Cam Skattebo's injury.  

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Although this is technically a battle of two first-place teams, these are not the same caliber of teams.  Pittsburgh is in first place by virtue of injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and the complete implosion of the Baltimore Ravens defense.  Indianapolis is in first place because of its NFL leading scoring offense - which just so happens to be incredibly balanced (6th in rushing and 6th in passing - 3rd in total offense).  Pittsburgh is 27th in total offense, which ranks better than its 30th ranked defense.  They do have a chance to show us something this week, but gimme Indianapolis and its two - yes TWO - MVP candidates - Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.

Green Bay Packers -12 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

F' it.  Why not!

Detroit Lions -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Detroit looked like Detroit again last week, which is bad news for the Vikings, who might be hard-pressed to stop the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am picking against the Titans, likely for the rest of the year.  They need to get Cam Ward some serious playmakers, because he has actually looked good at times.  But they don't have those playmakers now.  The Chargers do, even with their injuries at running back.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Is it possible that Mike Vrabel just suffered from the curse of Jeff Fisher (8-8) in Tennessee and that he might actually be a really good coach?!

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am 100% sure that I do not like picking as many road favorites as I have already (this is 6), but I also know that nobody is sure what the Raiders are even doing.  They really should just trade Maxx Crosby.  the Jaguars themselves are really gambling with their treatment of Brian Thomas (see what I did there?), so I am interested in seeing how that unfolds.  I am sure Jacksonville is better, and Travis Hunter is getting more-and-more comfortable in his role(S!)

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

I would love to say that my analysis of this game swings on my vast investigation and research into how much of a jolt a team gets by just simply starting a new quarterback with the hopes and optimism that this person could be their long-term answer (Tyler Shoough), but it really just is the two touchdowns plus.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The eye test really answers this game in the opposite, as Kansas City has been playing much better than Buffalo lately, but Buffalo did hang 40 last week - albeit on Carolina - plus they are getting points and Kansas City is on a short week.  Let's go ..... Buffalo!

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Sam Darnold has been very steady leading the NFC West leading Seahawks' offense this year (109.2 rating, 8th in passing and 13th total offense), but this is more about how much the Commanders miss Jayden Daniels and the fact they are on a short week.

Dallas 66Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

I didn't really know what to do here:  Green Bay is giving up too many points, Denver, the Chargers and Indianapolis are all on the road.  So, I settled here.

Last Week Record: 5-8

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 54-67

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-6

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($545)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,660) 

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 6

An actual .500 week percentage-wise, but lost the Big Bet, as a number of HUGE upsets occurred, and six teams rallied from double-digit deficits to win outright.  This hurt me in some (See New England Patriots) and helped me in others (See Carolina Panthers).  Either way, super-weird year this year as neither Kansas City nor Baltimore are on track to make the playoffs, and Baltimore is in SERIOUS trouble   And, teams like Jacksonville and Seattle are having banner starts to their seasons.  Like I said, weird.  Might need to start varying away from the traditional gambling rules - who knows.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Other than their records and the fact that Philadelphia is the defending-Super Bowl Champion, nothing about the stats say Philadelphia.  The Giants offense is better (20th to 30th - including the fact that the Giants are 13th in rushing offense and the Eagles with Saquon are 25th!), AND the Giants defense is marginally better (27th to 30th).    But, the Eagles score (12th in scoring, and are moderate in scoring defense (16th), and this pick violates two gambling rules - never give points on the road in an intra-divisional game and always pick the home team on a short week.  So, perhaps this will hit.

Denver Broncos -7 1/2 over New York Jets (in London)

With the travel in London, and with the understanding that weird things happen in the overseas games, I was looking for something, anything, upon which I could take the points in this game.  The best thing the Jets have going for them is that they are the 3rd best rushing offense in the NFL.  BUT, the Broncos are 5th best in defending the run and 2nd in Scoring Defense.  Denver it is, hopefully by a lot.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals now-starting running back Michael Carter averages 2.74 yards per carry.  Indianapolis' offense is cruising, with the 4th best Total Offense, 4th best Passing Offense, and 2nd highest Scoring Offense.  Its 3rd best Scoring Defense doesn't hurt either!

Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

No official word on if Lamar Jackson will play or not, but he is likely out.  Better chance that Kyle Hamilton plays.  I hate taking Pacific teams in the 1:00 slot when they play in the Eastern time zone, but this is the week to flip-the-script, especially with the second-best Total offense in the league (Rams) going against the 31st-ranked Total Defense (Ravens).

Cleveland Browns +5 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Cleveland's defense is 2nd in the NFL in Total Defense, 4th in Passing Defense and is the best team in the NFL in stopping the run. Quinshon Judkins has added a much-needed jolt to the rushing game, averaging 4.8 yards per carry in a bell-cow roll, with the team getting a jolt from Dylan Sampson and Jerome Ford when they spell Judkins (6.2 and 11.2 yards per carry respectively).  Yes, the Steelers are 301 and in first place in the AFC North and are clearly more talented overall than the Browns.  And, they have won 8 straight games coming off a bye - which is the case this week.  So, they should win this game, but does a 21-17 game seem about right?  It does to me.

Jacksonville Jaguars -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

These two teams are probably the most (positively) surprising teams in the NFL, and are both poised to make a run for the playoffs this year.  Sam Darnold leading Seattle's fifth-ranked passing offense is surprising, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba's breakout is not.  Liam Cohen's best decision was to trade Tank Bigsby - not because he isn't talented but because there is now no confusion as to who the number 1 running back is (Trevor Etienne, if you don't know), and the Jaguars offense has clearly rallied behind him as they are 5th in the NFL in rushing, with Etienne being 4th in individual rushing.  For this game, I am going with the tried-and-true axiom of taking the east coast team in the 1:00 time slot versus a Pacific Time Zone opponent, even though Jacksonville is on a short week.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Going against the betting rules here even though the Chargers have lost Najee Harris (previously) and now Omarion Hampton from their offensive backfield because the defense gives up the 6th least amount of points in the league, and more importantly BECAUSE THE MIAMI DOLPHINS ARE THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE RIGHT NOW!!!  I am surprised that Mike McDaniel survived last weekend's collapse against the Carolina Panthers with his job intact.

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

New England Patriots -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This was a very difficult pick to make.  Yes, the Patriots are coming off a stunning victory over the Buffalo Bills, but New Orleans somewhat righted itself offensively last week - granted it WAS against the New York Giants.  Drake Maye is spreading the ball around and playing at a high level.  New England maybe starts a roll toward the playoffs.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

This is all about taking points.  Both teams are 1-4, and Las Vegas looks a little better than Tennessee, but neither team scores a lot of point (14.6 per for Tennesse; 16.6 per for Las Vegas (31st and 30th in the NFL respectively), and neither team stops the other teams from scoring, giving up 28.2 per game for Tennessee (26th) and 27.8 per game for Las Vegas (25th).  Given those numbers, I'll take the points.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Really good matchup between two 4-1 first place teams, that are pretty evenly matched.  Offenses are comparable, as are the defenses.  Both have momentum, as the Niners upset the Rams last week and the Buccaneers beat the Seahawks.  Really nothing that I can put my finger on here other than just taking the home team in what the linemakers think is basically a toss-up as well.

Cincinnati Bengals +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, I know that Green Bay is monumentally better than Cincinnati, but, the Bengals are still NFL players, and 14 1/2 is a LOT of points.  That's it.  That's my reasoning.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are on a disappointing short week, after squandering the game against what is starting to look like a really good Jacksonville Jaguars team on Monday night.  Detroit scores in bunches (34.8 points per game - tops in the league).  Kansas City is relatively pedestrian offensively for a team that has Patrick Mahomes, although it is possible that Tyquan Thornton is developing into a great accompaniment to Xavier Worthy as a weapon.  Detroit getting the points and scoring a lot of points.

Washington Commanders -4 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Yes Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears offense is much improved, and yes they are on a 2-game winning streak, and yes, they basically had that game against Washington last year with inferior talent to this year's squad before the Hail Mary, but Washington looked really, really good against the Los Angeles Chargers last week in their 27-10 win, and that leads me to believe they will handle the Bears at home on Monday night.  A positive for Bears fans, Ben Johnson has never lost a game as head coach coming off a bye week.

Atlanta Falcons +4 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Buffalo will be angry after losing last week to the New England Patriots, but Atlanta is a tougher out than you would think given that they are 2-0 and lost 30-0 to Carolina.  Even with that drubbing, they are the best team in the NFL in Total Defense (1st in Passing Defense/16th in Rushing Defense) and 16th in Third Down Defense.  They are also 6th in Total Offense (6th against the run).  Should be able to at least keep this close, although I expect the Bills to win.  Plus, Atlanta is coming off a bye.

Byes:  Houston Texans, Minnesota Vikings

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys - 2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Great comeback by the Panthers last week, but the Cowboys are NOT the Miami Dolphins.  Despite the Cowboys having the worst defense in the NFL (32nd in Total Defense; 32nd in Pass Defense; 29th in Scoring Defense; and 23rd in Rush Defense), they do score the 4th most points in the league, and Javonte Williams might be the comeback player of the year so far this season.

I really wanted to take the Commanders here, but this just seems like the biggest mismatch on the board.  Dak Prescott has a 101.1 rating on the season and Bryce Young has a 79.5.   Javonte Williams is third in the NFL in rushing with 447 yards and second in rushing touchdowns.  George Pickens is second in TD receptions.  Too much firepower.

Last Week Record:  7-7

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  35-43

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-4

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,740) 

And, even after Week 1, gambling is still gambling.  The comebacks on both Sunday and Monday nights really hurt, as the swings at the end of the fourth quarter resulted in two losses from what looked like two very good wins, and ultimately a $420 swing ($100 per game that I didn't win, to $110 per game that I lost due to the vig).  But hey, at least the Joe Flacco Rebirth Tour continues in full effect covering my Big Bet!!!

For those new to WeMakeItRain, I will select each game, placing a $100 wager on all but one game.  That game, the Big Bet, will be for $250, and is obviously the one I think is the biggest guarantee of the week (yeah, right?!).  All picks are against the spread, and their will be no over/unders in this column until the playoffs (when the number of games is fewer).  Anyway, let's get to the picks!!!

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

A refrain that you will read over-and-over-and-over again this  year, take the home team on a short week.  Doesn't hurt that the Packers looked like one of the best three teams in Week 1 - the others being the Bills and Ravens.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

So the Bears simultaneously looked like the Bears, and looked like a much-improved team, taking a 14-3 Minnesota squad down to the wire while the Bears defense was missing three starters, including two cornerback that would have been responsible for covering Justin Jefferson.  But, the Bears played Monday night, and the Lions have a lot to prove after they looked ordinary against the Packers.  If the Bears had a full week, I might honestly take these points, but they don't.

Los Angeles Rams -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Beware the road favorite, but luckily for betting me, Nashville plays in the Central Time Zone - not Eastern - so I am not as concerned with travel as I ordinarily would be.  The Rams won a low scoring game against the Houston Texans, and the Titans lost a close battle to the Denver Broncos, despite Titans receivers dropping some critical passes.  I think Tennessee's game was more of a function of Denver not playing well, and I think Los Angeles takes this one handily.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Both teams had hard-fought battles in Week 1, the Steelers winning a shootout against the Jets and the Seahawks falling to the 49ers, Seattle is travelling east and playing at 1:00, and Aaron Rodgers is playing like Aaron Rodgers.

New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Ok, Ok, calm down.  The Jets are not going to WIN this game.  But, as I stated a number of times last week, I hate selecting road favorites in intra-divisional games.  Plus, given that the Bills started with a huge comeback win against Baltimore, this might be a little bit of a letdown game.  Also, the Jets looked spry last week against the Steelers.  Spry enough to keep this somewhat close.

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Dallas looked like an actual football team last week in a 24-20 loss to the Eagles, and they were a couple of CeeDee Lamb drops away from defeating the defending Super Bowl champion.  The Giants, were, well the Giants.

Cleveland Browns +11 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is going to have to be pissed after handing a sure-fire win to Buffalo last week, but ... 11 1/2 is A LOT of points to a divisional rival, especially one experiencing the Joe Flacco Rebirth Tour!!!  I'll take the points in an otherwise comfortable Ravens victory.

New Orleans Saints +3 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is the worst game of the week - yes even worse than the next game I will be selecting.  Mac Jones starting for the 49ers, George Kittle out.  They still have a healthy McCaffrey and Ricky Pearsall, but there is just too much unknown.  I'll take points at home in this situation, even if those points involve Spencer Rattler.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Just judging on Week 1, Miami IS the worst team in the league.  The problem is that Week 1 causes A LOT of overreactions.  The domestic assault investigation (yes another one) into Tyreek Hill is another issue.  Give me the points.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville proved a lot to me last week, which isn't much as I expected them to be one of the worst teams in the league this year, and the Jags finally cutting ties with Trevor Lawrence, but again, they only beat Carolina.  Cincinnati struggled with Cleveland, but I think we all expected that.  Is it possible that by jettisoning Tank Bigsby, Travis Etienne can become more comfortable and the offense can really settle down and play?  We will see.  Cincinnati will be in playoff contention all year, and they win at home by a touchdown.

Arizona Cardinals -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Arizona looked good at times last week, albeit against the Saints, but a touchdown reception by the uber-talented Marvin Harrison, Jr. is HUGE!  Carolina, on the other hand, did not look good at all against Jacksonville.  I wish this was around 4 1/2 to 5 points to feel more comfortable, but it isn't.  I still have to give the points at home.

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Is this the NFL or the Kentucky Derby?  All that seem to be missing are the old USFL Birmingham Stallions and the current UFL Birmingham Stallions.  Denver's offense struggled a bit against the Titans, and the Colts were ON FIRE against the Dolphins, but this game is a different type of race.

Philadelphia Eagles +1 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Philadelphia was challenged by Dallas last week, so the question is ... Has Philly taken a step back, or is Dallas pretty good?  We have been asking the step-back question about Kansas City constantly over the past few years, but even then, they never do, even when they do.  Philly is still better overall, especially on the lines, so I will take the points.

Atlanta Falcons + 3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota really showed us something in the fourth quarter against the Bears, and they seem like they could be a dangerous team this year.  But, Atlanta needs to rebound badly from their loss to Tampa Bay in order to avoid starting 0-2, and Minnesota is on a short week.  Minnesota 28-27.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Houston Texans

I was more disappointed by Houston than any other team last week.  9 points?  Really?  You always need to avoid overreacting to Week 1, but I can get points against the Texans right now?  Yes, please.

Las Vegas Raiders + 3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I HATE this pick.  HATE it, HATE it, HATE it.  You get the picture?  Well, Pepster, why are you picking the Raiders, then?  Because it is early in the season and there is less to really study before making picks, so I really, really need to rely on traditional betting rules, like not taking a divisional road favorite.

BIG BET:

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Dallas looked like an actual football team last week in a 24-20 loss to the Eagles, and they were a couple of CeeDee Lamb drops away from defeating the defending Super Bowl champion.  The Giants, were, well the Giants.

This just seems too obvious.  Cowboys played to the level of the Eagles last week, and the Giants played to the level of the Giants.  If this keeps up, Dallas will win big.  Javonte Williams also looks more than serviceable enough as the Dallas passing attack searches for balance from the running game.

Last Week Record:  7-9

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  7-9

Year-to-Date Big Bet:  1-0

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($140)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($140) 

Picks of the Week

 

So, back in the red.  Not out of the hole yet, but a much better week.  And, I did my picks ahead of time for last week, so will do that again, making my picks for all of the games ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown!!!  Happy Thanksgiving to all, and may we all be thankful for another winning week!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions -9 1/2

I do not think the Bears will beat Detroit - they won't - but they have played both divisional rivals close in the last two weeks, covering both spreads as they lost to the Packers by 1 and the Vikings by 3.  Maybe a 28-20 type of loss here tomorrow?  And yes, I know, short week and all, but there are three Thursday games,, plus one Friday, so have to try one road team.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Miami has won 3 in a row, after a close loss to Buffalo, so they are cruising with Tua back behind center.  Jordan Love has an 18:11 TD:INT ratio, and will likely throw one tomorrow.

Kansas City Chiefs -13 v. Las Vegas Raiders

So the Chiefs have been in a lot of close games, and there is no way they should cover this spread given their performances this year.  But, they are home on a short week, Isaiah Pacheco migh be back to give the running game a boost, and the Raiders lost Gardner Minshew for the season, meaning Desmond Ridder picks up the start, although even they cannot decide if it's Ridder or Aiden O'Connell.

Houston Texans -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston needs a win after losing to the Titans, despite forcing 19,000 turnovers, just like they lost to the Lions 3 weeks ago, after making 5 interceptions.  This defense is humming, and the Jaguars offense doesn't need that, although it is rumored that Trevor Lawrence is practicing, and Brian Thomas might be back.  Won't matter.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers face the double-whammy of playing in the east coast in the 1:00 time slot AND having played Monday night, so this is a short week.  The loss of J.K. Dobbins - if he is indeed out with a knee strain, could also seriously hurt.  Give me the noon nightmare.

Tennessee Titans +5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Tennessee snuck up with a win last week against Houston, and Will Levis has been playing somewhat well.  The Commanders are on a three-game losing streak.  I do not expect that streak to continue, as they should still pull this out, but Tennessee's 1st overall defense and 1st in passing defense could really challenge Washington, and keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona keeps looking on the verge to really take off, but they haven't.  Minnesota is 9th in scoring and 5th in scoring defense.  That is a really good combination, especially since their #1 ranked rush defense could tymie Arizona's 6th ranked rushing offense.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at New England Patriots

Since Anthony Richardson is so up-and-down, and the Colts beat the Jets two weeks ago, and lost to Detroit last week (no harm there), perhaps Richardson is up this week.  That is really my unscientific and unmathematical analysis.  But, evern though Indianapolis is 1-4 in their last 5, those losses have been to the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans.  All playoff teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

I don't know how Pittsburgh is doing it either, honestly, but their 7th overall defense (4th in rush and scoring) is the best place to start.  The Bengals #1 passing offense will look to take advantage of the Steelers relative weekness against the pass (17th).  Me, I'll just take the points in almost any AFC North matchup.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Jets

I hate making this pick since the game is in the 1:00 time slot in New Jersey, but I believe Geno Smith will find a way to outshine Aaron Rodgers, who may have already caused the team to turn against him.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Of all the teams way back in the standings, I expect the Dolphins to make the most interesting playoff run, but that is only because the Rams, at 5-6, are only 1 game off the lead of the NFC West.  Being this close with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for a large swath of the beginning of the season, is dangerous for the reast of the NFC West.  They should handle New Orleans, who is coming off a bye week that may have stopped their momentum from a two-game win streak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young has definitely improved since his return from the bench, but Baker Mayfield looks posed to capitalize on a healthy Mike Evans in his return from injury with one full game under his belt.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I am soooo looking forward to this game.  I am taking Philadelphia because among great teams I would prefer to take the points, but also because Baltimore played on Monday, making this a short week for them.  Both teams only real weakness (Baltimore 31st pass defense/Philadelphia 25th pass offense) will compete against each other, as will their strengths (Baltimore's number 1 total offense/Philadelphia's number 2 total defense; Philadelphia's number 1 rush offense/Baltimores #2 rush defense).  Like I wrote, I am looking forward to this game. 

Buffalo Bills -7 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is just too banged up right now to really compete.  Buffalo is only one-game behind Kansas City in the fight for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 v. Clevleand Browns

Two teams I can never figure out, but in this scenario I know Denver is actually good, and Cleveland is not.  If I am going to be surprised, so be it.  Give me the good team.

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

This is not me picking Cooper Rush, but rather the fact that Dallas' defense has the chance to just thoroughly humiliate a quarterback that likely should not even be in the NFL.  I know it is a Thanksgiving Thursday game, and short week games are difficult to prognosticate, but I see nothing more obvious than this game this week.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  85-87-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($845)

Picks of the Week

 So last week was my worst week of the year.  Not only did I fall under .500, but I lost the big bet - a big bet that I even wrote was a horrible pick at the time I made it.  Perhaps sometimes I should listen to myself.  Anyway, perhaps a kick-start of a win on Thursday night can bring me out of the red for the season.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Arizaona Cardinals -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week.  This was, finally, a great football game on Thursday night.  Week 1's Buffalo-Los Angeles matchup was a great game by the Bills, but not the Rams, and it was in Week 1, meaning not a short week.  Problem is, we will not get too many games on Thursday nights like this Arizona victory.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

When teams do not score a lot of points (Indianapolis 17.2 per game and Tennessee 19.2 per game), I am going to want to take the points in the spread.  Plus, Matt Ryan is second in passing yards whereas Tennessee's defense is last in the NFL in pass defense.  This is a tough pick because Derrick Henry could have a huge game against Indianapolis' 20th ranked rush defense.

New York Giants +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Yes, the 5-1 Giants are underdogs on the road against Jacksonville.  Although I feel that New York's 5-1 record is not truly indicative of how average a team they are, they seem to come through when it matters most.  Plus, they are tied for 7th in scoring defense.  I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +13 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thirteen points in the NFL, on the road, in an intra-divisional game is A LOT of points.  I don't care if they did just trade Christian McCaffrey.  

Washington Commanders +4 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

So, did you know that Green Bay only averages 1 passing yard a game more than Washingon?  Sounds crazy, right?  Well, that changes as the Packers have the number 1 passing defense in the NFL, and Washington cannot run very well (24th in the NFL).  Of course, Brian Robinson is back and he looks lively.  So, you know what?  I am going to take the points, and expect a Taylor Heinicke bump.

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Honestly, this line looks a little high.  It should be about 4 1/2 in my estimation, but I am not an actuary (and THOSE people are the smartest people on the planet.)  Still, I am going to give the points for two reasons:  (1) Cincinati is 9th in passing offense and Atlanta is 31st in passing defense; and (2) Cincinnati is 3rd in third down percentage offense and Atlanta is 30th in third down percentage defense.  Frankly, you can score a lot of points if the other team cannot stop you on third-down.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Our third consecutive 6 1/2 point spread, and trust me, I hate giving points on all three of the games.  But, I am going to do it, most reluctantly on this game and here is why.  Rushing.  But Pepster, Cleveland has the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL led by Nick Chubb, with some Kareem Hunt thrown in.  Correct, they do.  But, Baltimore is 8th in rushing defense, and could slow down the Browns' runners, some.  And, even with J.K. Dobbins out, Kenyan Drake is averaging more yards per carry than Nick Chubb.  Plus, Lamar Jackson is the 4th leading rusher in the NFL himself.

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 v. New York Jets

This pick is amazingly stupid, except there is a reason the spread is only 1 1/2.  First, the Broncos only give up 16 points per game.  Second, the Jets are travelling to altitude.  Third, is it possible that Wilson being out is the ultimate addition-by-subtraction?  Do the Broncos get a Brett Rypien/Josh Johnson bump?  I say yes.  Or even if they don't, Jets win 10-9.  Denver did play Monday night, which does not bode well for this pick, but Russell Wilson will not play today, and I think that makes the difference.

Houston Texans +7 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders might be the most disappointing team in the NFL right now, and, if they really want to make the playoffs, they have to start winning somewhere.  This looks like the right spot for that.  Easy pickings.  But, we know that sometimes the obvious bet isn't the smartest play.  Houston - as is typical in Lovie Smith-led teams - doesn't give up many points (13th in the league), and if they can hold true to that form today, they will win the bet, if not the game.  Josh Jacobs has himself a game, but the Raiders only win 27-21 in a backdoor cover (which I think is my first backdoor cover prediction this season.)

Los Angeles Chargers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

Geno Smith has been playing great football, and Kenneth Walker is an emerging star at running back, but the Chargers have won 3 in a row, doing it primarily by passing the ball with the 3rd best passing offense in football.  AND, Just Herbert gets Keenan Allen back from injury after having not played since week 1.  I hate this pick because the Chargers played Monday night, but Keenan Allen didn't, so I will keep it.

Kansas City Chiefs -1 at San Francisco 49ers

Honestly, I am picking the Chiefs because I believe there will be a over-exaggeration of the impacts on the Christian McCaffrey trade.  First, San Francisco can always run the ball, no matter the running back. Second, more passes to McCaffrey means a few less to Deebo, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.  Third, that just seems to be the way the NFL works.  Plus, with San Francisco's expected increased reliance on their running game, Kansas City has the defense (4th in the NFL in rushing defense) to try and combat it.  Now, next week's game for the 49ers with a full week of practice for McCaffrey may be a whole different matter.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I hate overexaggerating the effects of one player, or one action, or just one of anything.  But, I am going to do it here.  Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa returns, and means the world to the Dolphins and their 2nd ranked passing offense - which now gets the Steelers and their 30th ranked passing defense.

New England Patriots -8 v. Chicago Bears

I have no faith that the Bears can score meaningful points against anyone, much less a Bill Belichick coached team.

Byes:  Buffalo Bills, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -6 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Detroit can score, as they are 3rd in the league in scoring offense.  But, the are alos last in the league in scoring defense, giving up an average of 32 points per game.  You read that right, 32 POINTS PER GAME!  Dallas's offense has looked pedestrian, at best, under Cooper Rush.  But, Dak Prescott is back.  Dallas makes a statement.

More points than I want to give up for a big bet, but worth it in this case, I think.  Dallas's defense has been amazing, and now the offense can be as well.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  45-44-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445) 

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($440)

Picks of the Week

 

First winning week last week. Hopefully it is the start of a streak!!!  I am starting a bit late, honestly because I was watching last night's Saturday Night Live, so not too much time for analysis if I am going to get out to watch the Bears/Packers!  Of course, this means I am NOT watching the dumpster-fire that is Dolphins-Jaguars.  This is the first week of byes, so each game is more important in developing a winning streak than usual.  Although I am still 0-5 on the big bet.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Philadelphia Eagles +7 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Thank goodness Philly's staff believes in anlytics, otherwise I would have pushed this bet instead of winning.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. Miami Dolphins (in London)

Jacksonville always outperforms in London.  Well, almost always.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears almost as much as the McCaskey family.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Both putrid offenses, by Cincinnati's defense is middling.  The same cannot be said of Detroit's.

  

Kansas City Chiefs -6 1/2 at Washington Football Team

Both defenses are horrible (32nd and 31st respectively in scoring defense).  The best defensive unit is Washington's rush defense, and Kansas City doesn't rely on the run that much anyway.  Only because I just took 2 consecutive road favorites am I making it 3.

Carolina Panthers +2 v. Minnesota Vikings

I am not making it 4 consecutive road favorites, especially with Carolina's defense (1st in passing defense, 2nd in total defense, 3rd in scoring defense, and 8th in rushing defense.  They are also 1st in 3rd down conversion percentage defense.)

Indianapolis Colts -10 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two 1-4 teams in a battle of horrific failutres.  I know I am giving up 10 1/2 points, but the Texans only score 17.8 on average.  Indy can score 27 on this Texans defense.

New York Giants +7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

West coast team travelling east playing the early game.  

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I would have loved to have seen this game in the 4:00 slot.  Betting, again, against the west coast team travelling east playing the early game.

Arizona Cardinals +3 at Cleveland Browns

Yes Kareem Hunt is really good.  But, Kareem Hunt is much  better when the Browns have Nick Chubb.  Chbb's absence might affect the number 1 rushing team in the NFL.

Las Vegas Raiders +5 at Denver Broncos

Most teams play poorly in the face of adversity.  I think playing on the raod actually helps the Raiders.  I look for Carl Nassib and his position-mates Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue have a great game rushing Teddy Two Gloves.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 v. Seattle Seahawks

All you need to know is that Seattle brought in Blake Bortles for a tryout this week.  Didn't sign him, so Jake Luton is the backup.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

The Bills are cruising on offense  as the highest scoring team in the league.  But, they are also the best team in the league at preventing the opponent from scoring.

Big Bet

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Dallas is clicking on all cylinders, even defense where Trevon Diggs leads the NFL in interceptions.

I don't like taking road teams for my big bet, but road teams are covering at an unprecedented rate this year.  In fact, most casinos have moved the traditional 2 1/2 to 3 points given to the home team down to 1 1/2.

And, for personal reasons, I am riding with someone named Elliott, with 2 "L"s and 2 "T"s.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

Last Week's Record:  10-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  42-38

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  0-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $175

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($805) 

Picks of the Week - End of Regular Season

 

So a bad penultimate week wipes out the rest of the winnings I had accumulated from the rest of the year.  But, at least we have a last week where I have no idea what to do due to all of the players resting, the Covid list, and teams being out of the playoff race.  Ouch.  Never good to rely on week 17, which is why fantasy leagues stopped playing all 17 weeks about a decade and a half ago.  Oh well, I will give it a shot.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Miami Dolphins -2 at Buffalo Bills

How on earth are we starting with a road favorite in an intradivisional game when the home team is clearly the better squad and the visiting team is quarterbacked by a rookie?  Because we do not know which of the Bills players will play, and for how long.  Last year in this situation (locked into a playoff spot) the starters played about a quarter.  Although not locked into an actual spot, they are locked into either the 2 or 3 seed, and with Pittsburgh being so close relatively to Buffalo, no fans in the stands, and an additional playoff team meaning the 2 seed does not receive a bye, there is virtually no difference between the two seeds.  So, I predict Buffalo does not play a lot of its key players any significant amount of time, and Tuanigamanualepola Tagavailoa plays just well enough for the Dolphins to win and make the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens -13 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Hooray, another intradivisional road favorite, and this time a double digit favorite.  But, Baltimore needs this win to qualify for the playoffs (Baltimore could lose and still make it with help), and Cincinnati has a chance to select 3rd in the 2021 NFL draft (right now they are 4th).  Cincinnati will need that third pick to select Penei Sowell, the behemoth tackle from Oregon in order to protect Joe Burrow in the future.

Cleveland Browns -10 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Oh great, another double digit intradivisional favorite.  At least it is a home game, right?  Well, two words - Mason Rudolph.  A better bet is how long until Myles Garrett sacks him?

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Detroit Lions

Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite!  (And yes, I am going to find something to complain about with each selection.)  But, the Lions have phoned in the end of this season, losing by 68 points combined in their last 3 games.

New York Jets +3 at New England Patriots

I cannot believe that I am picking the Jets (for the second week in a row).  But, they are actually playing much better than the Patriots.  I wonder which quarterback Belichick would like to draft (Zach Wilson, Kyle Trask or Mac Jones?)

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at New York Giants

Can you believe anybody picking the Cowboys this year?  Well, I have to in this game.  They are on a 3-game winning streak, scoring at least 30 points in each of those wins.  And, the winner of this game will win the NFC East and make the playoffs provided that Philadelphia defeats the Washington Football Team.

Atlanta Falcons + 6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is 22nd in pass defense and Atlanta is 5th in passing offense.  Problem is Atlanta has lost 4 in a row and I don't trust them.  For a silver lining their losses have been by 3 (to KC), 4 (to Tampa Bay), 3 (to Los Angeles Chargers), and 5  (to New Orleans), so they have been keeping games close.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 at Chicago Bears

The Bears offense has been playing much better, and even moved the ball well against Green Bay 5 weeks ago.  But, in that game the defense had no answers whatsoever for Aaron Rodgers, and nothing about this team shows me they have the capability to do that.  Add that to the fact that Green Bay is fighting for the number 1 overall seed in the NFC (and a bye week), and Green Bay wins this game, despite the Bears having the ability to clinch a playoff berth with a win (or a Cardinals loss - more on that later).  Man, I hate that the Bears are in this position.

Carolina Panthers +6 v. New Orleans Saints

The Saints will be playing this game without any of its normal running backs due to Alvin Kamara testing postive for Covid-19.  Why does that affect the remaining running backs?  Because, just like the Denver Broncos several weeks ago, the rest of the position is out due to being in close contact with Kamara.  New Orleans' problem is that since Kamara tested positive, he would not be eligible to play until next Sunday (if he experiences no symptoms since the testing), meaning he would miss a Saturday playoff game.  New Orlenans is just going to try to get through this game.  Teddy Two Gloves is looking to solidify his spot as starting quarterback for Carolina for next year.  I hate picking against the obviously better squad.

Indianapolis Colts -14 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Ugh, another double digit favorite.  At least it is a home game.  But, Jacksonville showed me absolutely nothing last week that says that they could stop anyone.

Tennessee Titans -7 at Houston Texans

Another road intradivisional favorite.  I must be a masochist.  But, Tennessee is fighting for its playoff life (Tennessee, Indianapolis, Baltimore, Clevleand and Miami are fighting for 4 spots), and that motivation should be more than enough against a Texans squad that elevated 2 offensive linemen from the practice squad.  DeShaun Watson has had a helluva season, though.  I am serious, check it out.  He has the second highest QB score from ProFootballFocus (behind Aaron Rodgers).

Los Angeles Chargers -6 at Kansas City Chiefs

I do not expect the Kansas City starters to play very much at all.  If they do, then this is a bad pick.  Damn these week 17 games.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

I have no idea what is going to happen in this game, so give me the points.

Arizona Cardinals -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

So the winner of this game makes the playoffs.  In addition, the Rams make the playoffs with a loss if Green Bay defeats Chicago.  But, if the Rams lose, but Chicago wins, we would have a 3-way tie for the final playoff spot between Chicago, Arizona and the Rams, a tiebreaker that the Rams lose.  So, since both this game and the Bears-Green Bay start at 4:25, neither team will know the outcome of the other game - so at least that means they have to play hard.  But, the Rams will be without quarterback Jared Goff (injury) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (Covid-list).  Ordinarily, I would have faith in the best player in the NFL, Aaron Donald, but I have no idea what a John Wolford is.  My Bears are doomed.

Seattle Seahawks -7 at San Francisco 49ers

Another intradivisional road favorite.  This does not make me happy.  But, Seattles good offense (8th in total offense, 7th in scoring offense), is suddenly being accompanied by a newly transformed defense, having not given up 21 points since a week 11 win against the Cardinals.

Washington Football Team -5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Washington wins and they are in the playoffs.  Lose and they are out - that simple.  The Eagles are so fractured that Carson Wentz is not even going to dress tonight.  Alex Smith is.  And, instead of complaining, I will just be happy that I get to type "Washington Football Team".

  

Big Bet

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at New York Giants

Can you believe anybody picking the Cowboys this year?  Well, I have to in this game.  They are on a 3-game winning streak, scoring at least 30 points in each of those wins.  And, the winner of this game will win the NFC East and make the playoffs provided that Philadelphia defeats the Washington Football Team.

Dallas is actually playing very well lately.  I look for them to keep it up and then watch the Sunday night game between Washington and Philadelphia.

Last Week's Record:  5-11

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  120-115-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($875)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($670)

Picks of the Week

Now that "Tanking for Tua" isn't really an option, and since the NFL's sham workout for Colin Kaepernick was called out by Kaep, and he still tried out - with media - in front of 8 teams, it almost makes this weekend's games irrelevant.  Except, it is still the NFL!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cleveland Browns
I broke the early week rule and paid for it dearly, although not nearly as much as Myles Garrett did.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
DeShaun Watson versus Lamar Jackson.  Yes, I know they do not actually play against each other, but WOW am I looking forward to this game.  I hope it is close, so give me the points.

Carolina Panthers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons
I honestly only think this because Atlanta has a comedown after destroying New Orleans last week.

Dallas Cowboys -7 at Detroit Lions
Jeff Driskel.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
It might take a little while for Jacoby Brissett to get his sea legs.  I could probably say the same for Nick Foles, but only one of the two has a Super Bowl MVP.

Miami Dolphins +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
This Dolphins team is actually playing really hard.  This game will be close.

Minnesota Vikings -10 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Branadon Allen.

New Orleans Saints -4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bounce-back week.

New York Jets +2 at Washington Racists
Adrian Peterson had a great game last week against a poor run defense.  The Jets have the NFL's second-best rush defense.

Arizona Cardinals +10 at San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco just beat Arizona by 3 two weeks ago in Arizona.  Yes, this game is in San Francisco, but Arizona should still keep it close.

Oakland Raiders -11 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Can any non-fantasy football players name a Bengal?

New England Patriots -4 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I actually hate this line, and would hate either pick.

Chicago Bears +6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
Both teams have underperformed this  year, but the Rams are missing some offensive lineman.  Khalil Mack needs to control this game.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Los Angeles Chargers
I hate picking road favorites in intradivisional games, especially when one team is so up-and-down (the Chargers).  But, I feel even if Los Angeles gives Kansas City its best game, Kansas City is just too fast.

Byes:  Green Bay Packers, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Tennessee Titans

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -7 at Detroit Lions
Jeff Driskel.  I won my big bet last week giving up points to Jeff Driskel.  Hopefully I can do that again this week.  I wonder if the Lions think that Colin Kaepernick cannot play in the NFL while at the same time starting Jeff Driskel.

Last Week's Record:  7-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  72-77
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  6-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $190
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($1,040)

Picks of the Week

So, last week was HORRRRRRRIBLE.  I prefaced the column last week by saying that I did not pay attention at all to the preseason.  Perhaps I should have.  Not perhaps, I definitely should have.  It definitely would and could not have made last week's pics worse.  Believe me.  But, seriously, who had the Browns looking THAT bad.  Who had Cincinnati outgaining Seattle by over 200 yards? Seriously.  Well, hopefully I learned some things from last week, but am not going to super overreact to outcomes that were outside of the norm.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Never take the visiting team on a short week.  It didn't pan out this week, but it does over 70% of the time.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
There are a lot of competing rules at play in this game. Never take a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  And yes, I know that Arizona isn't "west coast", but they do not follow daylight savings time so they are in the Pacific time zone currently (technically Mountain Standard Time).  Bur, it is hard to cover a double digit spread, especially when it is basically two touchdowns.  So, I have a bid decision to make.  Baltimore will win, but not cover.  Arizona played a lot better in the fourth quarter last week, so I am going to say they are progressing a bit enough to keep this close. If they give David Johnson enough touches, they could keep the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands enough to keep this within the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Two teams that have really yet to define themselves, but things look OK for both as of  now.  As stated earlier, Cincinnati lost to Seattle, but outgained them by 200+ yards.  San Francisco won last week, but it was over an underwhelming Tampa Bay squad.  The west coast travelling east rule also applies, so I will take the Bengals.

Detroit Lions +2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams are coming off an overtime game last week, and were both underwhelming.  The Chargers pulled out a victory over Indianapolis Colts, while the Lions ended last week tied with the Arizona Cardinals.  Extra game time, plus the west travelling east, plus a road favorite gives me all the reason I need to select the Lions.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Selecting Green Bay after their defeat over the Chicago Bears last week would be the highest of overreactions, I think.  Green Bay actually did not look good in that win offensively, and Dalvin Cook is way more explosive than any single Chicago Bear.  I will take points in a divisional rivalry.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 8 1/2 at Houston Texans
The Texans looked absolutely great in last week's loss to New Orleans Saints, falling just to a last minute drive by Drew Brees (go figure).  And yes, the Jaguars are playing a rookie quarterback, but Gardner Minshew II looked good last week, and if this Jaguars defense plays the way they are supposed to play, this game could be a touchdown difference.

New England Patriots -19 at Miami Dolphins
Honestly, this spread is absolutely ridiculous, and taking a road double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game is preposterous and the height of overreacting to last week's Patriot win and Dolphins loss.  This spread is so ridiculous I am going to take it.

New York Giants +2 v. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was underwhelming in its 17-16 defeat over the New York Jets while the Giants were soundly defeated by the Cowboys last week.  I feel the Bills will have a difficult time corralling Saquon Barkley (who doesn't).  The fact that the Giants are getting points at home means I will take them.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Steelers lost and looked bad.  The Seahawks won, but looked worse.  Pacific team travelling east and playing the early game means I take the Steelers and hope their offense shows some life this week.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
This game is essentially a pick 'em among teams that surprised last week.  We are not sure if last week was an anomaly for one or both of the teams, but this is one way to find out. I will take the home team.

Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
This game is incredibly important for both teams if they have their minds set on making the playoffs.  Only 12% of the teams that have started 0-2 have qualified for the playoffs, and both teams enter this game after week 1 losses.  I will take the points at home, and hope that if my beloved Bears do win and I lose this bet, I can still be happy.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Oakland Raiders
So the Raiders absolutely surprised everybody last week defeating the Broncos.  But, Pat Mahomes is not Joe Flacco.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Los Angeles Rams
I love that the Saints are getting points here.  The Rams haven't quite looked the same in about 4 or 5 games (dating back to last year).

Philadelphia Eagles -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia has won 4 in a row against the Falcons. Given that the spread is so low, I will take the better team on a hot streak.

New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Nobody, and I mean nobody wants to watch this game.  On paper, the Browns should beat the Jets, and that was before Sam Darnold contracted mononucleosis.  Trevor Siemian does have an over-.500 record as a starting quarterback in the NFL, so it isn't like he is being randomly thrust into a game.  Cleveland looked awful last week. I don't expect them to look that bad, or commit 18 penalties, but I am not sure they are ready to be a touchdown favorite either.

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.
Picking a road favorite of any kind is against everything I believe in, but, this line is the one I like the most, so I have to take it given the shellacking I took last week.

Last Week's Record: 4-12
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  4-12
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($770)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($770)

NFL Picks of the Week

Sadly, the Bears Super Bowl hopes went "doink, doink", but at least I had Philly plus the points.  Average week, but hopefully this gets easier, at least the way the weather is in half the games should help, but you never know.

The playoffs are different than the regular season in that there are fewer matchup, so because of this I will be selecting my picks via the spread, via the money line and with the over/under.  This allows 12 picks for the weekend.  I will still be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100 (except for the favorites on the money line, which will be selected to try to win $100.  Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Indianapolis Colts +4 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
So, Kansas City is incredibly high scoring - this we all know.  But, Indianapolis was 5th in scoring this year as well and 10th in scoring defense.  Plus, it is snowing right now in Kansas City, as I just saw a picture from my friend Alison who is currently tailgating at the game (she is from Kansas City).  This game is going to require a stop, and the Colts defense will make enough to keep this close - especially since Kansas City's defense doesn't stop anybody (31st in the league at 405.5 yards per game).

Indianapolis Colts +180 (Bet $100 to win $180) at Kansas City Chiefs
If I think this is going to be close, I have a lot of faith in Adam Vinatieri in kicking field goals in inclement weather, even important ones.  Plus, I like the +180 odds better than the -220 to select the Chiefs.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54
Three unders hit last week, much to my dismay, but bad weather doesn't always mean low scoring.  Sometimes it means defensive backs slipping on coverage, or linebackers losing their footing when trying to wrap up a big back.  It can also mean fumbles in your own territory.  I look for the over to come in this game.

Dallas Cowboys +7 at the Los Angeles Rams
I don't think I am on the Dallas Cowboys are for real and legitimate Super Bowl contenders bandwagon, but I am on the Rams have not looked great for about a month now bandwagon, and the way the Cowboys defense has been playing, the Rams should not run away with this, even if they win.

Dallas Cowboys +270 at Los Angeles Rams (Bet $100 to win $270)
Honestly, I don't know if the Cowboys are actually going to win this game, all I know is that Amari Cooper has changed this offense dramatically - for the better - and Ezekial Elliott has been a monster with the safeties not able to play in the box to cover Cooper over the top.  Plus, the Rams are at -330, and I do not like that risk at all.

Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams OVER 48 1/2
Even with Dallas's defense playing extraordinarily well of late, would it shock you if this ended up at least 28-24?  It wouldn't for me.  I'll take the over.

New England Patriots -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
I like the Chargers so much more than the Patriots this year, but the Chargers history in New England, and Phillip Rivers's history against Tom Brady, might just be too much to overcome in the bad weather in Foxboro.

New England Patriots -190 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Bill Belicheck with a bye week to prepare against a warm weather west coast team traveling east to play in the early time slot.  This should be -250.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 48
I just don't see a shootout hear.  Maybe something like 24-17,

New Orleans Saints -8 v. Philadelphia Eagles
New Orleans was 13-3 this year for good reason, and this after starting the season with a loss to Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  New Orleans was the third highest scoring team in the league and second in total defense, meaning Nick Foles is going to have to do this by himself.  Besides Drew Brees, who will be playing against Philly's 30th ranked pass defense, the Saints have the most dangerous running back in the game in Alvin Kamara - because of his versatility.  Here is where the title defense ends.

New Orleans Saints -380 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I thought about hedging my bet here as the Eagles are getting +320, but New Orleans likely beats Philly last year if not for that ridiculous Stefon Diggs last second catch-and-run in the playoffs to knock the Saints out.  This playoff run is a long-time coming for the Saints.

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints OVER 51 1/2
Did I mention Philadelphia's 30th ranked pass defense?

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys +7 at Los Angeles Rams
I just feel the league, starting with the Bears loss, and continuing through the Philly loss the following week, might have found a way to slow down the Rams.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-126-11
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($105)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($985)

Picks of the Week

A great, and I mean great, week last week.  Of course as odds will have it, not off to a good start this weekend.  Damn Saturday games.  So, since I am a bit behind today, no analysis, just picks..

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Houston Texans -7 at New York Jets

Denver Broncos -1 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Green Bay Packers +5 1/2 at Chicago Bears
Ok, some analysis.  I am picking Green  Bay because these games are usually close, and if the Bears don't win, at least I can salvage a good bet here.

Arizona Cardinals +9 at Atlanta Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 8 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Oakland Raiders +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

Dallas Cowboys +3 at Indianapolis Colts

Washington Racists +7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins +7 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

New York Giants +1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles +13 at Los Angeles Rams

New Orleans Saints -6 at Carolina Panthers

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys +3 at Indianapolis Colts
Dallas is on a nice little run, arguably have the better talent in this game, and they are getting poitns!

Last Week's Record:  10-6
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  106-93-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $490
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $580

NFL Wrap-Up (Week 2 Version)

Here are my thoughts from Week 2 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see, and since I was at a bar all day drinking and watching football, that was a lot!

Game of the Week

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos. No question whatsoever. This game had it all; big plays, special teams, backups performing admirably (Darren Sproles), brilliant homecoming (Brandon Marshall), Ed Hochuli, and well, blown calls by Ed Hochuli. Add to that a malfunctioning replay system and this game had it all. San Diego was robbed. Honorable Mention to Philly at Dallas, although that game was amazing as well.

Best Team Performance

Dallas Cowboys. They showed the NFL that they are currently the best team in the league with a scintillating 41 - 37 victory over the Philadelphia Eagles. This game could have gone either way, but Dallas outscored Philadelphia 17-7 in the second half, when the defenses finally showed up at the game. Tony Romo was 25-37 for 312, including a big play to T.O., and Jason Witten with 7 catches for 110 yards. If the defense can make the big plays everyone is expecting them to, watch out. They did sack Donovan twice on Philly's last series. Plus, they have our Patron Saint.

Least Impressive Team Performance

This is difficult, but I am going with the Miami Dolphins over the Kansas City Chiefs this week. Miami wins primarily because they gave up a 79 yard touchdown pass to Anquan Boldin on Arizona's third play from scrimmage after the Cardinals lined him up in the slot to get 1-on-1 coverage by a linebacker. I mean, its not like Boldin has ever done anything in this league for the Dolphins to worry about.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Brandon Marshall, WR - Denver. So many great performances this week, but Marshall had the second highest total of catches in a single game in NFL history, with 18, for 166 yards and 1 TD.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)
Jon Beason, LB - Carolina Panthers. 11 tackles against the Chicago Bears, plus he seemed to get stronger as the game progressed. The entire Carolina defense took their strength from him and became better and better throughout the game. Plus, Big Beast perpetrated the first 7th Floor Crew-on-7th Floor Crew crime in NFL history when he recovered G-Reg's first fumble of the game.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Darren Sproles - San Diego Chargers. Felix Jones also had quite a weekend, but Sproles 103 yard Kickoff Return for a TD, coupled with his catch-and-scamper in the 4th quarter which felt like a return, takes this weekly honor. Two excellent weeks for former LDT backups (see Turner, Michael from last week).


Goat of the Week

I was sooooo going to award this to Greg Olsen, who fumbled the ball away twice leading to two scoring drives for the Panthers in their 20-17 victory of my Chicago Bears, but I couldn't because of ....

Hit of the Week

Ed Hochuli's hit on the entire Charger Nation when he blew his whistle. If you don't know what I am talking about, quit reading .... NOW!

Breakthrough Performance

Since I prefaced them last week, and since they both showed up strong this week, this award goes to Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson, although Jackson was a bit boneheaded by throwing the ball away before actually entering the endzone. Both of them have served notice that they are receivers to be reckoned with in this league, now, not in the future, but now. Royal had 5 catches for 37 yards, but he scored the last TD, and the game winning two point conversion. Strong confidence in the kid from Jay Cutler. Jackson had 6 catches for 110 yards, and the now infamous bauble.


In realty this award should have gone to Darren McFadden for his 164 yards rushing, or to Jonathan Stewart for his breakthrough performance against the Bears, but I'll just leave them in the "keep a close eye on" category for now.

Finally

Reggie Bush, RB - New Orleans Saints. Since he scored again, I will leave him in again, simply so I can post another picture of Kim Kardashian.

Impact Injury

Bob Sanders, S - Indianapolis Colts. On a team already reeling from offensive line woes, the last thing they needed was to lose the heart and soul of their defense, which is exactly what happened.

Team Rising

Carolina Panthers. At 2-0, the Panthers have made an impressive opening salvo for surprise team of the year, even without Steve Smith. They have started to hone their running attack with Jonathan Stewart, and Smith will make the offense that much more explosive once he returns from suspension this week. Throw in a solid defense and the most underrated coach in football, and Carolina could be looking forward to a playoff berth.

Team Falling

Seattle Seahawks. From a perennial playoff foundation from the NFC West to a potential doormat in the league. They have started 0-2, and have lost to Buffalo and San Francisco. They need to get moving fast, or else everyone else out west could pass them (except St. Louis, they suck).

Best Teams

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Denver Broncos

Worst Teams

32. St. Louis Rams
31. Miami Dolphins
30. Kansas City Chiefs
29. Cincinnati Bengals
28. Seattle Seahawks

Don't worry, I am sure the Raiders will return after they no longer face the likes of the Chiefs.

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

3. New Orleans at Denver - Denver looks prolific on offense, and they don't look like they can stop anybody, which means points and points galore in this game. It should be very exciting for football fans.

2. Pittsburgh at Philadelphia - Philly proved its mettle last week, barely losing on the road. Elite teams return those type of favors by beating other elite teams at home. Pittsburgh is looking to solidify its ranking at the top of the entire AFC.

1. Dallas at Green Bay - The winner gets the early lead for home field advantage in the NFC, plus we get the chance to see just how good the Packers' offense can be under Aaron Rodgers, who has already played pretty decently against Dallas once in his career.

Last Week's Trivia Answer
The ever-immortal Michael Bishop was the last QB prior to Matt Flynn to throw a touchdown on his first ever NFL attempt (or at least that is what my sources tell me).

Trivia
To keep up the rookie theme, DeSean Jackson is only the second WR in history to amass two consecutive 100 yard receiving games to start his NFL career. Who was the first? Please no online searches, and place your guesses in the comments. Answer provided next week.