Picks of the Week

 

Winning record but lost money, thanks to the fact I forgot George Pickens wasn't playing.  Won't make that mistake today.  Thursday pick looked great for the first half, then the Chargers came to life.  Oh well.  Two Saturday games - let's get after it.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

Like I typed earlier, first half looked great.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, the away team on a short week.  Houston's defense is on a heater - moving up to 6th in total defense and 9th in scoring defense, and Kansas City, even though they win, don't blow anyone out.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

The aforementioned George Pickens loss makes Pittsburgh's offense really stagnant.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 at Chicago Bears

The Bears snuck up on Detroit on Thanksgiving.  They will not do that this week.

Cincinnati Bengals -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Dorian Thompon-Robinson?  And Cincinnati has the 5th highest scoring offense in the NFL, going against the 26th ranked scoring defense.

 

Atlanta Falcons -9 v. New York Giants

I ordinarily hate picking a team starting a QB for his first ever NFL start, but Penix might just be what Atlanta needs after Kirk Cousins squandered a 6-3 start.  Plus, it's the Drew Lock-led New York GIants, and his 54.6 rating.

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Will Levis is officially looking over his shoulder; and a nervous Will Levis is a bad Will Levis.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Road favorites in an intradivisional matchup are difficult picks, but not when that team is among the best in the NFL right now.  Philadelphia are 4th in total offense (1st in rushing) and 1st in total defense 1st in passing and scoring).

Los Angeles Rams -3 at New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers' destruction of a New York institution is almost complete.

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Seattle Seahawks

I might as well just keep picking road favorites!  How can that hurt?

New England Patriots +14 at Buffalo Bills

Only because the spread is two touchdowns.  Likely would have taken Buffalo if it was 10, maybe even 11.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Long live the Mac Jones Era!!!

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Miami Dolphins

Looks like the Dolphins will be without Jaylen Waddle AND Tyreek Hill.  I reserve the right to change this before game time if Hill plays.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is playing like not only will they deserve to be in the playoffs, but they could make some noise.  But, Dallas has been playing a lot better recently, and if not for a weird blocked punt, muff for a Cincinnati first down, could be on a four-game winning streak.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, do I think that New Orleans will win? No.  Do I think New Orleans will keep this close?  Also no. But 14 1/2 is a lot of points to give up in an NFL game.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Because it seems so crazy, I will take Carolina.  For most of my other choices they were either giving points, or on the road (or both?!), so I will take the points in a home game and hope for the best.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  109-106-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-7

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($715)

Picks of the Week

Back on the winning track!  Let's turn this into a streak.  I am in an airport right now leaving in about an hour so no real analysis.  Still gotta get the picks in, though!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -91/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Weird "short week" Thursday game in which both teams have their standard week from playing last Thanksgiving.  I didn't like this pick when it occurred, but I wouldn't have liked it if I picked Seattle either.

Houston Texans -3 v. Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 at New England Patriots

I hate picking a Pacific Time Zone team playing in the 1:00 slot, but the Patriots are awful.  I hate this bet.

Detroit Lions -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Already two road favorites.  This week is not going to be good.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Can Pittsburgh score 6 1/2 points?

Atlanta Falcons -2 at New York Jets

Arthur Smith apparently discovered Bijan Robinson.

Indianapolis Colts -1 at Tennessee Titans

Colts to the playoffs?

Miami Dolphins -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

If I am going to go down the road favorites rabbit hole, let's go down all the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Cleveland Browns

We still don't know who will be playing quarterback for Cleveland.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

It has become trendy to pick Philly because how could they be an underdog at home.  I am going against the trend.

Green Bay Packers +6 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City hasn't been playing particularly well; Green Bay has.

Cincinnati Bengals +9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It is Jake Browning, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points.

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

I like taking home teams, so Green Bay was a consideration here, but I don't want big money against Patrick Mahomes.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  98-73-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,995  

Picks of the Week

 

Finished in the black, albeit just a little last week, but I will take it.  I am travelling today, so no analysis, just picks.

Washington Commanders -5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Miami Dolphins -12 1/2 v. New York Giants 

New Orleans Saints +1 1/2 at New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Detroit Lions -9 v. Carolina Panthers

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Tenneessee Titans -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Los Angeles Rams +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs - 3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

 

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Awful game, I am just taking the points.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I don't really like this pick, but the other two games I considered, Baltimore and Kansas City, are road favorites, so they are giving points.

Last Week's Record:  9-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  34-26-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $75

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $510

Picks of the Week

Finally a great week to stop the beginning of the season slide.  I would take going 11-5 every week, and I do mean every week.  But we can't this week because the byes start, so there are less games, making each game more important.  Which sucks because nobody, and I mean NOBODY, thought Aaron Rodgers was going to throw that interception at the end of Thursday's game.  Puts me in a 0-1 hole.  Oh well, let's see how we do on Sunday.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -4 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
Home team, short week.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Both teams are surprisingly good defensively (Tennessee 6th and Atlanta 7th in Total defense), so I will take the points, especially if those points are going to the team that has looked marginally better than the other this season.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cleveland Browns
In the battle of the Cleveland Browns franchises, the old franchise has looked awesome this season, and the new franchise has looked, well, like the Browns.  Baltimore's defense is second against the run, meaning they can neutralize Nick Chubb, while offensively control the ball as the number 1 rushing club in the NFL.  Gimme the Ravens.

New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Julian Edelman has made the trip to Buffalo and although Buffalo has looked great in wins against bottom dwellers Jets, Giants and Bengals, not even a resurgent Frank Gore and the NFL's 5th best rushing offense will be happy to handle the league's best defense (#1 in total defense, rush defense, pass defense, third down percentage and scoring defense).

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Detroit Lions
Yes, this is my third straight road favorite, but the undefeated Lions should get exposed against Kansas City as the explosive Chiefs and Pat Mahomes should feast on the 22nd ranked pass defense.

Houston Texans -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Houston has won two straight since their opening game loss to New Orleans, whereas the Panthers are coming off a solid win against Arizona after losing two straight.  Houston will keep there streak going as the Panthers will not be able to stop the Texans' rushing game.

Indianapolis Colts -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I was initially going to pick Indianapolis before seeing the spread.  I really don't like this line, but I still feel compelled to give the points because Oakland is a west coast team travelling east playing in the early game, but also Indianapolis has looked really good this year.

Los Angeles Chargers -14 1/2 at Miami Dolphins
Yes west coast team travelling east playing in an early game, but another rule trumps:  I am picking against the Dolphins until they show me they can cover any spread.  Miami is 0-3 so far against-the-spread this year, even though two of those spreads were over 20 points.

New York Giants -3 v. Washington Racists
Ugh/  Please don't make me watch this game.

Minnesota Vikings +1 1/2 at Chicago Bears
If last week's Bears offense is any indication of improvement (albeit against the Racists), this could be a really, REALLY good game.  I am gonna take the points in an intra-divisional game (and secretly hope that I lose this bet).

Arizona Cardinals +5 v. Seattle Seahawks
This is a gut feel, as the Seahawks have been up-and-down this year, playing poorly against bad teams (in wins against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh) and good against good teams (a loss to New Orleans).  None of their games have been decided by more than 6 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The undefeated Rams have been largely stagnant on offense this season (16th overall and 23rd in passing), whereas the Buccaneers have been surprisingly good on defense (6th in rush defense, 14th overall and 10th in 3rd down percentage).  Rams win, but Buccaneers keep it close.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Denver Broncos
Jacksonville has seemed to play better given the Jalen Ramsey distraction, and Gardner Minshew II has a passer rating of 110.6 (as compared to Flacco's 87.4).  The Broncos - despite having Von Miller and Bradley Chubb, have 0 sacks this season.  If they do not put pressure on Minshew, he could be in line for a big road victory,so I will take the points.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
This is the game the Cowboys should win if they want to be seriously considered as a Super Bowl contender.  Yes on the road, but an overall better roster given that Drew Brees is out.  Offensively Dallas is great AND balanced (#1 in third down conversions, #3 rush and total offense, #4 pass and scoring offense), whereas the Saints defense is the exact opposite (#20 3rd down conversions, #25 rush defense, #26 scoring defense, #28 total defense and #29 pass defense).

Cincinnati Bengals +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I may not even watch this game.  Give me the points because Cincinnati is 3rd in pass offense and Pittsburgh is 30th in pass defense.  Ugh - horrible Monday night game.  At least it is likely one of these teams wins its first game of the season.

Big Bet
New England Patriots -7 at Buffalo Bills
Patriots keep rolling and the Bills show they are not quite ready for prime time - but getting closer.

Last Week's Record:  11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  22-26
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $385
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($525)

Picks of the Week

Welcome to our Picks of the Week.  For a quick refresher on the procedures behind my picks (for those that are new - this will be new): Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

My second consecutive losing week,even though I finished over .500 (I lost my big bet) but I am starting to feel like I really have a feeling for this season.  Let's see if that is true this week.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at St. Louis Rams
Last year, before the Rams were supposed to be good, they beat and tied the Niners in two meetings.  This year was supposed to be even tougher for the Niners, however DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys is still piling up yardage against the Rams defense.  If San Francisco gets back to their power game, Frank Gore should pile up big numbers also.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 at Cleveland Browns
The Browns were expected to have a great defense, but the yards they put up against Minnesota were astounding.  Cincinnati's pass rush is better, meaning this is a big test for Brian Hoyer.  I honestly think Cincinnati is a top 4 or 5 team in the league.

Chicago Bears +3 at Detroit Lions
Yes it is a intra-divisional game, and yes it is for first place in the NFC North.  This game is supposed to be close.  In those situations, I will take the points.  I feel the Bears defense is much better than the Lions defense, and with both offenses having the potential to put up a lot of yards, the defenses will be key.

Seattle Seahawks -3 at Houston Texans
I honestly cannot believe that I am taking 4 road favorites right now, but at this rate, everyone should take Seattle until they prove otherwise.  The Texans' defense is not good enough to stop the multi-faceted attack of the Seahawks, whereas the Seahawks defense is amazing, and can slow down the Texans offense.

Indianapolis Colts -8 at Jacksonville Jaguars
OK - 5 road favorites.  I actually had Jacksonville covering a 19 point spread last week, but alas, they could not do even that.  I will be happy to give up only 8 with Indianapolis, who is probably the third best team in the league right now.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 v. New York Giants
The Giants are horrible right now, and the Chiefs are playing really good football.

Minnesota Vikings +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
As ridiculous as it was that the Vikings lost to the Hoyer-led Browns, they did put up a bunch of points against a pretty good Cleveland defense.

Arizona Cardinals +2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Glennon's first NFL start.  I am sure that several players on the team still support Josh Johnson as quarterback, and this split is obviously going to have an effect on the Buccaneers, unless Glennon has a tremendous start to this game.  This game is all about Tampa Bay, and not Arizona.

New York Jets +3 1/2 at Tennessee Titans
The Jets are much better than expected, and it is obvious to me that with Geno Smith, they are able to be more effective offensively than with Mark Sanchez at the helm.  The Titans are solid, but not spectacular, so I do not see them blowing the Jets out.  Chris Johnson will have a tough time running through the line anchored by rookie Sheldon Richardson, who might be playing the best ball of any rookie in the NFL through the first three games.

Philadelphia Eagles +11 at Denver Broncos
Say what you will about the Eagles "new" offense, but they do move the ball a lot, and if not for 5 turnovers last week, they easily score a ton more.  Denver's offense is completely clicking, and I don't see the Eagles defense stopping them too much, but I still think the Eagles, with Vick, McCoy and Jackson, score more than enough to cover.

Oakland Raiders +3 v. Washington Redskins
Oakland, albeit not great, is no push over.  It looks like Terrelle Pryor will play this weekend, and if so, the Redskins pass defense is the worst in the league.  Oakland will keep this close, at best, and conceivably could win.

Dallas Cowboys -2 at San Diego Chargers
The two teams that I cannot figure out this year, but I think San Diego played its best football in the first couple of weeks.  If the Cowboys continue to run, this will make their vaunted passing attack even more dangerous, without the threat of Romo having to do everything himself.

Atlanta Falcons -2 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots have been winning primarily with smoke-and-mirrors, while Atlanta, despite two losses, has been playing pretty well.  They outplayed the Dolphins, despite losing the game, and played with the Saints for the entire game - another loss.  Although the Falcons defense is not as improved as some thought - or needed to be, and although they are decimated with injuries, they should still have more than enough offensively to beat the Patriots,

New Orleans Saints -6 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins won last week despite being outplayed - although they did really take it to Indianapolis.  I just feel that time, and talent, catch up with the Dolphins for this week.  The Saints might have the most explosive offensive weaponry, and the Dolphins will not have enough to keep up.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Buffalo Bills
The Bills secondary was exposed a bit against the Jets, and Torry Smith is even better than either Santonio Holmes of Steven Hill.  Although the Bills are much improved and the Ravens have regressed, the Ravens seem to have found themselves last week.


Previous Week's Record: 8-7-1
Year to Date: 20-25-2
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Beat Year to Date: 2-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($135)
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: ($505)