Picks of the Week

It is the heart of the season where teams make a playoff push, or fall, and bettors make money, or lose.  Time to button-up and get some wins.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The first game between these two teams was an overtime barnburner, but this time around is a short week for the visting Bengals.  Still managed to take it down to the wire.

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany

Carolina is embarrasing - so let's send them overseas.

Chicago Bears -6 v. New England Patriots

Perhaps this bet is just hopeful.

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

This might just be the defense that Caleb Williams needs to right the ship and prove that he is improving in his rookie season.  This is not the defense Drake Maye wants to see right now, even though he has shown promise in his few starts.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

West coast team traveling east versus team on a short week. So, there is no good bet here.  I am taking the team with returning playmakers (McCaffrey and Jennings), versus the team without them (Godwin and Evans).

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I would feel much better if this was a 6 1/2 point spread, as this is a divisional game, but DeAndre Hopkins makes this Chiefs offense way scarier, as defenses had focused on Travis Kelce, and now they can't.  Plus, the Chiefs deense has been outstanding (2nd overall, 3rd against the rush, and 4th in scoring).

Buffalo Bills -4 at Indianapolis Colts

For all of the blame that Indy's offense, particularly Anthony Richardson, has taken this year, the Colts' defense is 30th in total defense, 26th in passing, 31st in rushing, and 24th in 3rd down percentage.  Just what Josh Allen needs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Washington Commanders

The marquee game of the week.  Really just playing a hunch here, given Brian Robinson is out for Washington.

Minnesota Vikings -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota as a road favorite this high is tough, but Jacksonville's defense is 31st in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (and 30th in scoring defense), not good when going against Justin Jefferson.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Another big spread, but at least this time at home.  Chargers are the stingiest team to score against, and Tennessee rarely scores (27th in NFL).

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia has won 4 in a row, and the Cowboys are without Dak Prescott, and CeeDee Lamb is hobbled.

New York Jets -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Just a hunch honestly, based on the Jets defense (2nd in passing, 6th in total defense, 10th in scoring defense).

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins would be a great return for this Texans, but he still might not be up-to-speed, and this Lions team is humming with 6 wins in a row.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The Rams are on a 3-game winning streak, and get to host the struggling Dolphins at home.  Can the Rams defense (24th against the run) slow down Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert?  Enough, yes, given that the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have made this offense way more potent than its ranking (18th).

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

When you take a lot of favorites, you have to select a big bet giving points, and 3 1/2 is not that much given how easily I think the Falcons will win.  It has taken a while for the defense - and all its new members - to gel, but Justin Simmons and the other new Falcons are certainly coming around.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-66-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-3

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($355)