Picks of the Week - NFL Week 15

 

Finally, a week like it should be.  Easily in the black and looking to get a streak going. Perhaps I am figuring this season out - if a bit late - as I have finished in the Top 4 in my confidence league each of the past two weeks as well.  Typing that is likely my kiss of death. 

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Tampa had better be angry after losing - AT HOME - to the New Orleans Saints last week.  Plus, Atlanta has lost 7 of 8, and the Buccaneers are home on a short week.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Chicago has a tendency to play close games, so the line feels a little large here to me.  Despite giving up hardly any yards (2nd in Total Defense; 1st in Passing Defense), the Browns give up a surprising amount of points (23.2 - good for 17th), but not enough to be blown out.

New York Giants -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Only because the Giants are coming off their bye week, so they might be rested a bit.  Otherwise I hate giving points in an intra-divisional game.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes this is a lot of points, but the Eagles offense actually showed some life offensively last week against the Chargers, with Saquon Barkley rushing for 122, and A.J. Brown receiving for 100.  If not for 4 interceptions and a ton of fumbles, Philly runs away with that game.  The problem for me is that was Monday, making this a short week, but then again, the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, so that is a wash.  Eagles by 3 touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are bad, and imagine what could happen if Houston had just a modicum of a running game, instead of being 23rd in the league?

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

New England stunned Buffalo in Buffalo back in Week 5, in the second game of its 10-game winning streak.  Now the Patriots are getting points at home.  Yes, please!

Jacksonville Jaguars -11 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a whole lot of points, but the Jaguars are 9th in scoring in the league and have the number 1 rush defense in the entire NFL.  The Jets have the 26th scoring defense in the NFL, so this game could get ugly early.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are clearly the better team, however, they are on a short week.  And Justin Herbert looked extremely limited with his broken left hand trying to heal.  If the Eagles didn't turn the ball over 1,432 times on Monday, that game would not have been close.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

This is a HUGE number, but I do have to try to take into account not just the physical loss of Daniel Jones at Quarterback, but also the emotional toll on the team.  I could easily see the Colts slipping out of the playoffs altogether, and this last quarter of the season being UGLYYYYY.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

I am not taking two double-digit favorites in a row, especially after already taking the Jaguars and Eagles as double-digit favorites. The Titans scored more than enough to defeat the difficult Browns defense, and could easily keep this to a 9 or 10 point game.

Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This Broncos offense stinks.  Technically they are in the statistical middle in almost every category, but man they are not fun to watch and not explosive.  Not sure they can score enough to keep up with the Packers, especially with Josh Jacobs back.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I always like getting points at home in an intra-divisional game, and wouldn't it be something if the Saints defeated Tampa Bay and Carolina on consecutive weeks when those to teams are locked in a heated battle for the divisional title?

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two really good teams, and they both can score in bunches - and quickly.  In that case, I will take points.

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys were handled by the Lions last week, but that doesn't stop me from buying them for six points against a Minnesota team that is wildly inconsistent, especially when it comes to quarterback play.  I would have thought this line might be 3 1/2 or 4 after Minnesota's 31-0 clocking of the Washington Commanders, but I am going to have to live with giving the extra points.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Dolphins are statistically better offensively and defensively than the Steelers, and this pick is largely made by the fact that Devon Achane has an additional day to heal his ribs.  I might re-visit this pick if his playing status changes before now and then.  The Dolphins are also hot, having won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6.  

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

In Joe Burrow we trust!!!  He has even given Chase Brown some life as a primary running back.  Hit, some.  Love getting points at home, though!

Last Week Record: 8-5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 99-107-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $400

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week

 

Happy New Year from South Ponte Vedra, Florida.  A little vacay, so probably not much analysis today - well, we will see when we get into it.  At the very least a bit rushed because games are today, which is awful for those in the playoff hunt, as it gives teams, like Miami and Denver, the knowledge of what they have to do given that Cincinnati plays first.  All of these games should be tomorrow.  But, oh well, I don't run things.  A bit of a so-so week as I finished with a winning record, but lost the big bet, so finished a bit in the negative.  And this week is a super crapshoot as some teams rest all of their best players, some will only play them a little bit, and most we will have no idea until it happens.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns +20 at Baltimore Ravens

I cannot, in good conscience, but on a 20-point favorite.  Even if Bailey Zappe is starting for the other team.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game.  Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.

Chicago Bears +10 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay wins this, but I feel like they will be tentative not wanting ot invite injury into their playoff team.  Chicago only incentive is that a lot of players and coaches are playing and coaching for their jobs.

Philadelphia Eagles -2 1/2 v. New York Giants

Most starters won't be playing for Philadelphia, but Kenny Pickett and Kenneth Gainwell have both proven themselves to be legitimate NFL players.

Carolina Panthers +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Other than last week's debacle, Carolina has been playing everybody close.  Atlanta technically has the potential of the playoffs, except that if Tampa Bay jumps out to an early lead against the Saints, the deflation-factor could really come into play.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -14 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

The Saints are a M*A*S*H unit, and Tampa is on fire.  They will be a tough out for the Detroits, Minnesotas and Philadelphias of the NFC.  And, can somebody please tell me how Baker Mayfield was not selected to the Pro Bowl?  All due respect to Jayden Daniels.

Washington Commanders -6 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

I hate selecting an intradivsional road favorite, but last week's decimation at the hands of the Eagles most likely broke the Cowboys.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Much like the Cowboys, the Colts suffered a horrible loss last week to the Giants, just ending their season.  Not much to play for at all.  I can't even believe the Colts are starting Joe Flacco.

Houston Texans +2 at Tennessee Titans

Houston is actually getting points in this, which tells me that the bettors think they may not play their starters very long.  I hope that isn't true.

Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Buffalo has the 2-seed locked up, but hoping the starters jump to an early lead in the first half just because the team is so mad that they allowed New England to play them so close two weeks ago.

Kansas City Chiefs +10 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Broncos have to win to make the playoffs (they can also make it with both Cincinnati and Miami losses, and Cincinnati plays Saturday, so they will know), and Kansas City will not be playing its starters, but 10 1/2 points?  I reserve the right to change this bet if Cincinnati loses.  Otherwise, I absolutely hate this line.

San Francisco 49ers +4 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

An absolute crapshoot of a pick based solely on Joshua Dobbs' athleticism.

Miami Dolphins +1 at New York Jets

Bad line here, because Aaron Rodgers would do something like win a game to push the Jets down in the draft order, only to end up leaving the team and/or retiring.  This line could change toward the Jets if Cincinnati wins on Saturday, and I reserve the right to change my pick if that occurrs.

Seattle Seahawks -6 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

In most circumstances, the Rams are the picks in this game, except that Seattle needs this game, and the Rams plan to rest a lot of its players.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Jim Harbaugh never allows rest.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Detroit Lions

This whole year has been "Detroit this, Detroit that."  Minnesota has the opportunity to yank the #1 overall seed away from Detroit.  I don't know that they do that, but I think this game will be incredibly close, so I'll take the points.  The difference will be Minnesota's defense, 4th in third-down percentage, 4th in scoring defense, and 2nd against the rush.

Big Bets:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Pittsburgh is on a 3-game losing streak, and Cincinnati is in a must-win game.  Plus, if Baltimore wins the early game against Cleveland, then Pittsburgh will have absolutely nothing for which to play.

I hate picking a road team for the big bet, much less in an intra-divisional game.  But Cincinnati has a lot for which to play, and Burrow puts an exclamation point on what would ordinarily be an MVP season.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  127-119-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-8

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($360)

Picks of the Week

A second consecutive 9-4-1 week.  These are the types of records I like to see!!!  Off to a bad start this week, but hopefully I can keep up the level I have been selecting recently!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Home team, short week didn't work.  Really, really didn't work.

New England Patriots +6 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Wembley Stadium)

Drake Maye showed something last week, and despite New England not having a lot of offensive talent, Maye might be able to score enough against the leagues 31st scoring defense to keep this close.

Indianapolis Colts -3 v. Miami Dolphins

I really have no idea what to do with this one.  Yes, Anthony Richardson is returning, but do we really know if he is good or not?  No, we don't.  But, Tua Tagavailova is still out for Miami, so that offense hasn't shown anything since he went down with injury.  So maybe Richardson is inconsistent, but makes a few plays to win and cover.

Buffalo Bills -9 v. Tennessee Titans

The Bills have actually been struggling this year offensively; 25th in the NFL.  But, optimism is key.  And if Josh Allen is hyped due to the acquisition of Amari Cooper, that coould do a lot for this team, even if it will take Cooper a couple of weeks to get up to speed.  Interested in seeing how Tennessee's top ranked defense fares against the new look Buffalo with James Cook back and Amari Cooper suited up.

Detroit Lions + 1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

In a matchup that should be a close barnburner, I'll take points, even if it is only 1 1/2.  The over (50 1/2) should be a good play here, also.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I hate road intradivisional favorites, but Cleveland is awful and they have already traded Amari Cooper.  Could Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and/or Myles Garrett be far behind?

Houston Texans + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Green Bay's 25th ranked passing defense is their downfall here, as Houston looks to take advantage of the Packers' secondary.

Atlanta Falcons -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Eastern time zone home team against a Pacific time zone team in the 1:00 slot; covers over 2/3rds of the time.

New York Giants +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I do not want to take 2 intradivisional road favorites, and Cincinnati seems more likely to cover than the Eagles.  Is it possible that we have been overrating the Eagles (and Jalen Hurts?) for the past couple years?  Also feel like the Giants are not as bad as everyone thinks, either, so I'll take the points.

Carolina Panthers +9 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Please don't get me wrong, Washington wins this game.  It is just that 9 1/2 points seem like a lot to me.

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Too many Maxx Crosby trade rumors circulating for this Raiders team to be focused on the rest of this season.

San Francisco 49ers -2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The return of Jordan Mason to the lineup should put a jolt in the San Francisco offense, at least enough to defeat a Kansas City Chiefs team lacking in firepower.  Could they be looking for a trade deadline upgrade, especially at receiver?

New York Jets -2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

At the very least Aaron Rodgers knows Davante Adams, even if Adams cannot get fully up-to-speed on the entire playbook.  The Steelers will be starting Russell Wilson, hoping they get the Wilson from 4+ years ago and not thei this year/last year version.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baltimore is the better team here, but could Baker Mayfield exploit the one kink in the Ravens' armor - pass defense (31st in the NFL)?  They may, but Tampa's entire defense is its Achilles' heel (28th overall, 29th passing, 18th scoring).

Los Angeles Chargers -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Don't really know what it is about these Chargers, but they look like they could make a playoff run.  Number 1 scoring defense in the NFL - and 6th in total defense helps.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

I hate road intradivisional favorites, but Cleveland is awful and they have already traded Amari Cooper.  Could Wyatt Teller, Joel Bitonio, and/or Myles Garrett be far behind?

I am going against everything I like to do for my big bet.  Pick home teams, that are underdogs, or only slight favorites being among them.  But, this Cleveland team is a mess.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  46-40-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 5-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $785

 

Picks of the Week

 

Finally, the type of week I have been looking for this week.  Absolutely incredible.  Hopefully that doesn't mean I fall back-down-to-earth, but so far teh London week games have been good to me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks + 4 v. San Francisco 49ers

Home team, short week didn't work.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Hopefully like last week the favorite prevails.  The Bears defense is running smoothly - 3rd in third-down percentage, fifthe in scoring, 6th in passing and 8th overall.  Is this the week Doug Pederson gets fired a al Robert Saleh?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I hate taking a road intra-divsional favorite, but we just do not know what we will be getting from Spencer Rattler making his first start.  Only reason this spread is like this.  I do have the additional incentive of picking against the team playing on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay is the third-best rushing team in the NFL, whereas Arizona is 28th in stopping the run.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee is coming off a bye and the Colts are battered.  If Will Levis can just keep from committing that one stupid turnover per game ... big If.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 v. Cleveland Browns

Is it time for the Browns to put Wyatt Teller, Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper on the trading block?  A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson return for the Eagles.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Drake Maye is getting his first start for a Patriots team that has sputtered offensively (last in passing and 31st in scoring and 31st overall).  Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson is out from the 8th ranked rushing offense.  Houston meanwhile has the 6th best offense and 4th best defense.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Washington Commanders

I really wanted to take Washington here, as I think they could give the Ravens a game.  However, Washington's offensive strength (2nd in rushing), is also Baltimore's defensive strength (1st in the NFL), and Baltimore's #1 ranked total and rushing offense could actually win the time-of-possession battle that has worked so well for Washington this year.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Both teams offenses rank very low, and both teams defenses rank pretty high, so I will take the points in an intradivisional battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

It is possible that the Raiders get a jolt from Aiden O'Connell taking the helm, but I don't think so.  I just believe this Raiders team is in disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Carolina Panthers

Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite, but the Panthers are not good; 26th in offense and 28th in defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Is it possible that the Cowboys last-minute win against the Steelers turns their season around?  Sure, but I don't believe it.  Too many injuries on the defensive line and no rushing game (31st in the NFL).

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at New York Jets

So Robert Saleh was going to demote Nathaniel Hackett.  Aaron Rodgers got wind of it and complained to the owner, who fired Robert Saleh and slapped the interim head coach tag on Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who then pulled play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett.  Huh?

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Very few solid home teams giving up very little points, so I will take Denver getting them.  My other options were Green Bay -5 1/2, Philadelphia -9, and Denver +3, but this looks the most promising.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  37-36-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $175

 

Picks of the Week

 

I put in no analysis last week, and it showed in the results.  Hopefully a little thought could me a few more wins this week.  Got off to a good start on Thursday night, and hopefully can keep that rolling!

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I hate giving up double digit points to an intradivisional rival, but the fact that this is a short week gave me cover - see what I did there? - to take the Chiefs.  No way was a sweating the ultimately 19-8 victory!  (You better not believe that!)

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Baltimore wins this easily.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Bears getting points at home, with a suddenly resurgent offense (9th in rushing, 11th in scoring and a now-potent passing attack) going aginst the 22nd ranked passing defense, and 20th overall).

Washington Commanders  +1 at Atlanta Falcons

If Washington can keep doing whatever they did in the second half against the Bears, they might have found an offense under Sam Howell.  But, it was the Bears.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco seems to clearly be the class of the NFL right now, so why would I pick Cleveland, with a backup quarterback?  Well, it is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 slot, and, Cleveland's defense is legit!  First in total defense, passing defense and third-down percentage, 3rd in scoring defense, and 4th in rushing defense.  San Francisco very well may win, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points under these circumstance.  Now, let's see who plays QB.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This was a tough call for me, but New Orleans has been playing much better since Alvin Kamara's return, and Houston's strength, it's passing game, could be negated by New Orleans' passing defense, which is 4th in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

This is just a stupid line.  Just stupid.  Nobody in their right mind would give up this many points in an NFL game.  Carolina's defense is solid, also, against the pass at least (6th).  But Miami can run over just about anyone, even with Achane out.  Mostert is fast himself, and a solid running back.  And, something stupid happens every week.  Why not this game, at home, in the heat, against a rookie quarterback experiencing growing pains.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 v. Indianapolis Colts

Gardner Minshew's return to Jacksonville, and don't laugh, but dude can throw.  He has a 95.1 rating so far this year in limited action.  But, Jacksonville seems to be playing better - in London, mind you - than they were in a week 1 31-21 victory over Indianapolis, in Indiana.  I expect this game to be close, but Jacksonville wins it, and covers.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. New England Patriots

Nobody wants to watch this game, and I feel the wheels have come off the Patriots wagon.  Even with the Raiders on a short week, I feel I have to pick them here.  Is it time for Bailey Zappe?  So, the Patriots keep losing and end up with the number 4 pick.  Trade it to Chicago - who holds Carolina's number 1 pick, for a swap in number 1s, a 2025 #1, a 2026 #1, and a 2024 #3.  Go Raiders!!!

Detroit Lions -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Although the Buccaneers are much better than expected playing behind a resurgent Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions are just better.  And the fact they are 9th in total defense is impressive as well.  Detroit can book a ticket to the playoffs playing in the less-than-stellar NFC North; meanwhile the NFC South is equally less-than-stellar. 

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Even though they are only 2-3, the Rams rank 8th in total offense, 5th in passing offense and 14th in scoring.  AND Cooper Kupp is back after knocking off the rust last week with 8 catches for 118 yards.  Arizona's defense leads a lot to be desired, ranking 26th in passing defense, 27th in scoring, and 28th overall.  I expcet the Rams to put up 35 and cruise to a win.

New York Jets +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are undefeated and the Jets are playing Zach Wilson.  But, hear me out here...Wilson has been better, and the Jets defense can be really tough.  Plus, the Eagles haven't really blown anyone out - with a 25-11 victory over Tampa in week 3 their largest margin. Even last week the Eagles beat the Rams by 9 with two 4th quarter field goals from Jake Elliott.  I believe they stay undefeated, but win by 4.

New York Giants +15 at Buffalo Bills

There is no way I am giving up 2 touchdowns or more on 2 different games this week.  Since I am already giving up 14 to Carolina in the Dolphins game, I will not do it here.  Why this game?  Well, I think Daniel Jones is done - whether for good or just in New York I don't know - so I think the team may have more confidence and be better offensively with Tyrod Taylor.  Taylor was 9-12 for 86 yards and 14 yards rushing in limited time last week.  Plus, Taylor will try to actually target their best pass-catcher, Darren Waller.  On top of that, things are "optimistic" that Saquon Barkley will return.  He is a game changer, and can be the difference between losing by 28 and losing by 13.

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys defense is going to come out IRATE after last week's drubbing at the hands of the 49ers. And although corner is a problem right now for Dallas, with passing being the best part of the Chargers offense - even more so with the return of Austin Ekeler - the Chargers' 31st ranked defense, and last ranked pass defense might be just what Dallas needs to re-invigorate CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas offense.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Even though the Browns and Jets are at home getting lots of points, and the Giants are away getting lots of points, I just could not pull the trigger on them as my big bet.  So, here is a home team giving away a few points.  I just have to hope the Bengals did find themselves last week and that it continues over to this week.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  40-34-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($130)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $380

Picks of the Week

 

A decent bounce-back week last week.  Not great, but finished in the positive, so I will take it!  Games start early this weekend because the Jaguars have a home game in London.  I imagine there are a lot of Londoners that have no idea why Blake Bortles isn't in the Hall of Fame, much less not starting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

Home team on a short week.  This was a disaster.

Jacksonville Jaguars -2 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons (London)

Home game for Jacksonville.  Atlanta's best feature is their running game, 10th in the NFL.  Jacksonville stops the run (7th in the NFL).

Chicago Bears +3 v. Denver Broncos

Imagine giving up 70 points one week and being favored on the road the next week.  By the way Dolphins fans, a field goal last week would not have broken the NFL single-game points record.  I know they kept saying 72 was the recod on television, but the Bears beat the Washington Racists 73-0 in the 1940 NFL championship game, behind the immortal Sid Luckman.

Houston Texans +3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Houston has the 6th best passing offense in the NFL.  Pittsburgh is 22nd in pass defense.  T.J. Watt may get a couple of sacks, but the back-end of this defense will likely give up over 300+ yards to C.J. Stroud, Tank Dell and company.

Los Angeles Rams +1 v. Indianapolis Colts

I hate that Indianapolis is in the Eastern time zone, because the betting rules say take the Eastern time zone team in this slot.  Also the Rams played Monday night.  Everything about this matchup screams Indianapolis.  But seriously, how are the Colts 2-1?  The have the 20th ranked offense and the 22nd ranked defense.  Los Angeles meanwhile is 1-2 with the 9th best offensive team and the 7th best defensive team.

Minnesota Vikings -4 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Two 0-3 teams, and not the worst game on the board. See Denver v. Chicago.

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay played Monday night, so this is a short week for them.  They also have the 27th ranked offense and 23rd ranked defense.  And those stats come from having played the Bears.

Washington Commanders +9 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are better.  Wayyyy better.  But this is a big number and Pilly is playing on a short week.  I'll take the points.

Buffalo Bills -3 v. Miami Dolphins

Everybody is all over the Dolphins because of their 70-spot last week againt Denver, but you cannot carry-over points.  Yes the Dolphins are electric offensively, 1st in total offense, scoring offense, passing offense, and rushing offense, but those stats are incredibly skewed due to the Denver game.  Buffal is 2nd in total defense, 2nd in scoring defense, and 3rd in passing defense.  Miami's offense and Buffalo's defense are both sturdy.  But, Miami's defense is 20th in scoring, 20th in passing, 24th in rushing and 24th in total defense, whereas Buffalo's offense is 2nd in scoring, 7th in rushing and 8th in total offense.  Buffalo's offense is better than Miami's defense, so I will take the Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens,

The Browns outrank the Ravens in every offensive category (total, scoring, rushing, and passing.)  Plus, their defense is E-LITE:  2nd in rushing defense, 1st in third down conversion percentage, 1st in passing defense, 1st in total defense and 1st in scoring defense.  Give me the Browns.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 v. Las Vegas Raiders

We do not know who will start at quarterback for the Raiders.  We do know it won't be Jimmy Garoppolo (consussion protocol).  It will be Brian Hoyer or Aiden McConnell.  I'll take the Chargers and their second ranked offense.

 

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. New England Patriots

Bounce back game.

Arizona Cardinals +14 at San Francisco 49ers 

San Francisco may still win easily, but this is a lot of points in a divisional game.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at New York Jets

Kansas City is 1-0 in ass-whippings in game in which Taylor Swift attends.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Giants

Do we really have to have two prime time New Jersey games this weekend?  Seattle's defense is practically worthless (30th total, 31st passing, 29th scoring), but the Giants offense is equally worhtless, (24th rushing, 28th passing, 28th total, 31st scoring).  Put it this way, the Bears average more points than the Giants do.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Yes, Cincinnati is an away team on a short week, however it looked as if they found their offensive mojo in the second half on Monday night.  If that carries over, then we have the Bengals of the last couple of years and they annihilate Tennessee.

I usually don't like selecting road teams for my "Big Bet", much less road teams giving points, but nothing about this Tennessee team excites me, and I really think Cincinnati started to clikc in the second half last week.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  25-20-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $435

Picks of the Week

The divisional round was fantastic for us, which is a good thing because I do not know if I can really figure out the conference championship games.  Of course, we will give it a shot and hope for the best.  Seriously, this is about the best final four matchups for which we could have hoped in terms of quality teams and great matchups.  Going to be a great football day!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

San Francisco 49ers +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

A dynamic matchup between the 6th and 3rd highest scoring offenses, and the 1st and 4th best defenses.  Strength versus strength with Piladelphia being the 5th best rushing offense and San Franciso being the best overall defense, and 2nd best against the run.  Jalen Hurts is the difference here, as Brock Purdy - who has done an admirable job - is still just a rookie.  But, given that, I still think this game will be close, so I will take the points.  West coast team traveling east, but this game is not being played in the 1:00 time slot, so I will still take the points.

Philadelphia Eagles -155 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $155 to win $100)

As stated above, Jalen Hurts is going to be the difference here, and will not make the key mistake(s) that Purdy will.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 45

Two of the better defenses in the NFL, and a rookie quarterback make for an interesting under bet.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

Cincinnati Bengals +115 at Kansas City Chiefs

I am going to take a Joe Burrow at 100% with J'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst over a hobbled Patrick Mahomes with Juju Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and a hobbled Travis Kelce.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiegs OVER 48

I expect a shootout!!!

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Another great matchup pitting high-scoring teams (7th and 1st) against each other.  Cincinnati's defense is 5th best in scoring defense, and Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are both less than 100%.  Given these facts, and the fact that Joe Burrow just knows how to win, I am going to take the points.

If I expect Cincinnati to win, then the fact that they are getting points must mean I should make this my big bet.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-131-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  11-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $620

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $1,084.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $1,229.50

Picks of the Week

 

Super Wild Card Weekend went pretty much as expected, as 5 of the 6 top seeds won games, and the won that lost - Tampa Bay Buccaneers - were the underdogs in that game.  To be fair, "Cue Letterkenny - TO BE FAIRRRRRRRRRRRR," Jacksonville as the 4 seed was also an underdog and beat the Chargers, so 5 of the top 6 favorites won, while 5 of the top 6 seeds won, but they all weren't the same five.  Anyway - really good playoff week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks...

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Once again the Jaguars are playing on Saturday, to basically kick-off the playoff coverage, and although their amazing comeback last week was captivating, I don't expect that type of comeback against Kansas City's offense.  Yes, I said offense, because even if Jacksonville scores against KC's defense, they will not be able to stop the leagues highest-scoring offense.

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 53

I see a 35-14/35-17 type of game today.

Philadelphia Eagles -8 v. New York Giants

This might seem tough because of the close game the teams just played in the last week of the season (22-16), but then I realize that the Giants are playing on a short week, so I will take the home team with full rest because of a bye playing a team travelling on a short week.

Philadelphia Eagles -375 v. New York Giants (Bet $375 to win $100)

Plus, the Eagles have the third best defense (total AND scoring) in the NFL, whereas the Giants 27th ranked rushing defense will try to stop the Eagles fifth-rated rushing attack.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 48

This seems like a 35-17 game, or 33-21.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Buffalo Bills

This is the game that I am most looking forward to seeing.  I picked Cincinnati in the Damar Hamlin game because Buffalo has not seemed dominant, and even the Bears stayed even with Bills for 3+ quarters.  Giving 6 to Cincinnati with a depleted secondary seems dangerous as Cincinnati is the 5th best passing attack in the league.  The injuries on Cincinnati's offensive line are concerning, but they overcame that last year to make the Super Bowl.

Cincinnati Bengals +210 at Buffalo Bills (Bet $100 to win $210)

Buffalo's line is at -250, so it just makes sense to take the Cincinnati money line here.  Cincinnati may not shock anybody this year, but they still win.

Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills OVER 49

Would it shock anybody if this went 30+ points for both teams?

San Francisco 49ers -4 v. Dallas Cowboys

San Francisco is rested, and they have the number 1 defense in the NFL in total defense and scoring defense.  Plus, they have the 6th highest scoring offense, and is there any doubt they would have been higher had they had Christian McCaffrey all year?  Plus, the Cowboys are playing on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -200 v. Dallas Cowboys

If I think the 49ers are going to cover the spread, I must think they are going to win outright, correct?  San Francisco is my favorite to win the Super Bowl right now.  Not sure who has the brawn to stop them, or the guns to outscore them.

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers OVER 46 1/2

Honestly, I think this number is a bit low, so I will definitely take the over.

Big Bet:

Kansas City -480 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (Bet $480 to win $100)

Andy Reid is 20-3 as a head coach coming off a bye week.

The biggest monetary risk on the board is also the easiest pick on the board.  Have I mentioned that Andy Reid is 20-3 coming off a bye week.  These teams met in November, with Mahomes going 26-35 for 331 yards and 4 TDs, plus rushing for 39 more yards.  KC wins this.

Last Week's Record:  8-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  145-127-9-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  10-7-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $464.50

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses):  $609.50

Picks of the Week - SUPER BOWL LVI

Horrible money weekend, primarily because I made my big bet Tennessee over Cincinnati in the money-line.  So, even though I went 6-0 on Sunday, still lost money for the weekend.  But what a freakin' weekend of games that it was!!!  Now, we have the conference championships.  Picks seem like they should be easy, but is that a copout?  Who knows.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 at Cincinnati Bengals

I had the Rams winning the Super Bowl (over Kansas City) since the beginning of the year.  Their offense is settling nicely with both Cam Akers and Sony Michel, meaning the Bengals cannot just sit back and double Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham, Jr., or just rush Matthew Stafford.  Although, I have lost a lot betting against Cincinnati these playoffs.

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Los Angeles Rams at Cincinnati Bengals OVER 49

Both teams average 27.1 points per game (tied for 7th), and both give up around 22.  Should be a good scoring game, so I'll take the over.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Evan McPherson OVER 7 1/2 points

If I think he is going to kick at least two field goals, I have to go with over 7 1/2 points.

Cooper Kupp's longest reception OVER 29 1/2 yards

He leads the NLF in targets, meaning he is likely going to be thrown to a lot, and even if he does not get open deep, 846 of his 1,947 regular season yards after the catch. meaning he could take a 15 yarder for over 30.

National Anthem UNDER 2:00 minutes

My standard bet, although last year the line was 2:10.

Matthew Stafford OVER 1 1/2 Passing Touchdowns

Stafford has thrown at least 2 TDs in all but one game dating back to mid-November, and now with Odell Beckham, Jr. being comfortable in this offense, there are more weapons for Stafford to survey against Cincinnati's 26th ranked passing defense.

Los Angeles Rams -$135 OVER 3 1/2 Sacks (Bet $135 to win $100)

The Rams could challenge the Super Bowl record for most sacks in a game - which is currently 7.

Aaron Donald -125 OVER 1.0 Sacks (Bet $125 to win $100)

See above.

Von Miller -200 OVER .5 Sacks (Bet $200 to win $100)

See above.

Cam Akers -$120 Receiving Yards OVER 16 1/2 (Bet $120 to win $100)

Akers is going to be a highly utilized weapon today.

Joe Mixon $-125 OVER 24 1/2 receiving yards (Bet 125 to win $100)

Like Akers, Mixon's value is just being open in space, including wheel routes.  He has gone over this number in each of his last 5 games, and could be utilized to minimize the Rams' pass rush.

Big Bets

Los Angeles Rams -$200 at Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

The Tennessee Titans sacked Joe Burrow nine times in the wild-card round.  And the Titans do not have Leonard Floyd, Von Miller, and Aaron Donald.

Not as confident giving up points, but I just think the Rams are the much better overall team.

Cincinnati Bengals Field Goals (OVER 1 1/2)

All Cincinnati has to do is to move the ball into the Rams territory to be in field goal range for Evan McPherson, and he does not miss - at least not in the playoffs.  He did set a record for most 50-yard field goals in a season (12), so 2 field goals seems like a lock.

Two field goals seems easily doable.

Last Week's Record:  10-8

Playoff Record:  20-15-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Playoff Big Bet:  1-2

Year-to-Date Record:  163-144-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-12
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($305)

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  ($304)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($646)  

Picks of the Thanksgiving Week

Happy Thanksgiving.  One of the things that I am thankful for is you loyal (and not so loyal) readers.  Most of you that read regularly I know, but every once in a while someone will come up to me to mention that they read this column every week (or close to every week), and I am humbled that you are interested in my musings.  I do this not just to keep track of my picks, but as a way to practice my (non-work related) writings, and to add a little humor to my own life.  The fact that others take time out to enjoy (which may be a little strong) is a bonus.  Thank you.

A small step backward last week, but at least I got the big bet correct.  Back to lots of football this week with no teams on  a bye week, so 16 total games, starting with 3 today.  Enjoy your turkey, spaghetti, or whatever food you traditionally eat, and watch some NFL football.  Just don't overdo it today, as there are lots more this weekend!

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Say it with me please - don't take intradivisional, road favorites, especially on a short week.  Plus, Detroit has won three games in a row plus their last four Thanksgiving Day games.  Minnesota has both the fifth ranked offense and defense, and has won six in a row since their loss to ... you guessed it ... Detroit.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys
Going into this writing, my plan was to simply follow all of my standard betting rules, and a road favorite on a short week was not in the cards, but Dallas has only scored 16 points (with only one touchdown) since the Ezekial Elliott suspension, and the Chargers have won four of their last six.

Washington Racists -7 v. New York Giants
Again, a short week, and even with New York's victory last week, I am still completely unimpressed with the Giants this year.  Home team big.

Chicago Bears +13 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I do not expect the Bears to win this game, but Chicago does have the fifth best rushing game in the NFL, and should be able to keep the ball some and limit Philadelphia's possessions.  Philadelphia's defense is first against the run, but a lot of that can be attributed to the fact that Philly has led in most of the games forcing their opponents to pass the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 at Atlanta Falcons
The Ryan Fitzpatrick-led Buccaneers are certainly not afraid to take chances with the ball, and will likely score enough points against Atlanta's defense to cover the spread.  If Devonta Freeman was available, it would enable Atlanta to use a more balanced offense to work up the score on the 29th ranked defense in Tampa, but he likely isn't playing.  So, Atlanta by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
At home, against Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans -3 at Indianapolis Colts
If the Titans want to make the playoffs, they have to beat the teams they should beat, that includes the Colts, who are 25th offensively in points scored, and last defensively in points allowed.

Buffalo Bills +10 at Kansas City Chiefs
Tyrod Taylor is back, and Kansas City couldn't even score 10 points against the Giants, much less 10 points MORE.  The Chiefs are reeling offensively and need to right the ship quickly, and Buffalo looks to bounce back from the short-lived Nathan Peterman experience.

Miami Dolphins +16 1/2 at New England Patriots
New England wins this game easily, but the Dolphins' individual's pride as NFL players show through as they get the back-door cover by scoring a touchdown in the last two minutes to lost by 14.

Carolina Panthers -5 at New York Jets
Carolina has won 3 in a row since an inexplicable loss to the Chicago Bears, and Cam Newton has played more like Cam Newton since the Kelvin Benjamin trade has forced the Panthers to be more creative offensively.  The Panthers' second ranked defense should feast on the 25th ranked Jets offense - although surprisingly Josh McCown's QBR is over 10 points higher than Newton's.

San Francisco 49ers +6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
This pick at first glance seems ridiculous.  However, despite being 1-9, has played all but about 3 games extremely close, and Seattle is without basically their entire defensive backfield.  Add to that San Francisco's propensity to blitz the quarterback against Seattle's struggling offensive line, and we might have the makings of an upset.  I am not going that far as to predict a win for San Francisco, but they do keep it close.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are 20th against the rush on defense, and New Orleans is second in rushing, at 144 yards per game.  New Orleans is also second in passing yards per game, 1st in total yards, and 3rd in points.  Too much firepower for the Rams defense.

Jacksonville Jaguars -5 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Jacksonville has won 4 in a row and 5 of its last 6.  Arizona has Blaine Gabbert starting.

Oakland Raiders -5 v. Denver Broncos
I do not like this game.  I do not like this line.  I am picking Oakland because they are at home, they were embarrassed last week by New England, and because Denver is in even worse shape than Denver.

Pittsburgh Steelers -14 v. Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh's offense is clicking with Le'veon Bell leading the NFL in rushing and Antonio Brown leading the NFL in receiving yards.  The Packers, on the other hand, are led by a quarterback with a 63 QBR.  I wonder if Green Bay - which at the time of Aaron Rodgers' injury was in playoff contention - could have used a Super Bowl caliber quarterback that was (and is) available for signing?

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Houston Texans
Baltimore at 5-5 is in second place in the AFC North, whereas the Houston Texans have Tom Savage starting.

Big Bet

Cincinnati Bengals -8 v. Cleveland Browns
The Hue Jackson drama has reached its apex, as it appears he could be fired as early as after this game.  I really wanted to take the home underdog in the Lions, but I am afraid of a short week big bet.  Others that I considered include the Jacksonville Jaguars (-5 1/2 at Arizona); Carolina Panthers (-5 at New York Jets); and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10 at Atlanta), but all three were on the road.

Last Week's Record: 6-7-1
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  77-76-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($20)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($605)

NFL Wrap-Up

Here are my thoughts from Week 3 of the NFL season, based purely on what I was able to see.  I did not watch a ton of games as I was actually at the Kansas City - Miami  game, but I did see that one and Monday Night's game in total.  Was also able to catch parts of a lot of the early games!

Game of the Week

Philadelphia Eagles 37 v. Washington Whatever They Are Going to Be Called 34.  The second consecutive week that the Eagles have made this entry.  High-flying performances from both offenses, close game throughout, Kirk Cousins with 427 yards in his season (starting) debut, DeSean Jackson's return to Philadelphia, and a fight.  This game practically had it all.

Best Team Performance

Atlanta Falcons.  Defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 56-14, but it was not even that close.  It was 56-0 at the end of the third quarter.  Matt Ryan was an efficient 21 of 24 with 3 TDs, and it seemed like nobody could even try to cover Julio Jones.  An all-around dominating performance by the Falcons.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Miami Dolphins.  It would be easy to select the Buccaneers (see above) or the Jacksonville Jaguars, who lost 44-17 to the Colts, but both of those blowouts were to really good teams.  The Kansas City Chiefs dissected the Dolphins defense so thoroughly that Knile Davis had over 100  yards rushing.  Yes that Knile Davis.  The one that doesn't start.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Andrew Luck, QB - Indianapolis- It wasn't just the 44-17 victory, or the 370 yards, but the fact that he also did this while only throwing 39 attempts, completing 31 of them.  That is just under 10 yards per attempt and over 75% completion rate.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)
Muhammad Wilkerson, DE - New York Jets. Almost single-handedly kept the Jets in the Monday night game against the Bears, a game which could have ended up being an early blowout by the Bears.  He finished with 1 1/2 sacks and 3 QB hits, but he was everywhere.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Dustin Colquitt, P - Kansas City Chiefs.  His 48.8 yard net punting average seems way lower than what it looked like happened on the field.  His booming punts changed filed position all game in favor of the Chiefs.

Most Impressive Team Performance (Premier League)

Arsenal.  Scored three goals in the span of 4 minutes (Mesuit Ozil, Danny Welbeck and an OG), to defeat Aston Villa 3 - nil on the road at Villa Park.  This was an important victory for the Gunners as they sit currently in 4th place in the Premier League table, just one point behind Aston Villa.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Premier League)

Leonardo Ulloa - Leicester City.  The Argentine scored a brace against Manchester United, including an insurance penalty kick in the 83rd minute to seal the victory at home over Manchester United.

Goat of the Week

Geno Smith, QB - New York Jets - He threw too horrible interceptions, one in the end zone to kill a promising drive, and the first one which was nowhere near the receiver on a flare screen, and which Ryan Mundy returned for a touchdown.  Smith was definitely the difference maker in this game.

Goat of the Week (Premier League)

Pablo Zabaleta, Manchester City - The Manchester City defense was so hell-bent on being physical with Chelsea striker Diego Costa trying to provoke HIM, that it was not shocking when it was Zabaleta who in fact retaliated against Costa earning a red card (via his second yellow).  Five minutes later Andre Schurrle scored for Chelsea giving them a 1-nil lead.  Lucky for Zabaleta that long time Chelsea hero knotted the game a 1 apiece with his goal for City in the 85th minute.

Hit of the Week

Jared Cook, TE - St. Louis Rams.  After dropping a touchdown pass from quarterback Austin Davis, the first thing Cook did when he got to the sideline was to shove Davis.

Breakthrough Performance

Kirk Cousins, QB - Washington Whatever Name They Are Soon Going to Be Called. He played some in relief of Robert Griffin, III over the past couple of years, but nothing like this week's 427 yard performance.  Perhaps Washington could do something in the not-so powerful NFC East.

Finally

Tony Romo, QB - Dallas Cowboys - He has a reputation for choking away games, especially at the end (whether this is a deserved reputation or not is up for debate).  Nevertheless, he led the Cowboys in a come-from-behind win after trailing the Rams.

Impact Injury

Danny Woodhead, RB - San Diego Chargers.  The versatile running back has been placed on injured reserve - and thus lost for the season - with a broken fibula.  Although not a superstar, he is the type of cog on a football team that often determines whether a team succeeds or does not.  He does a little bit of everything from the running back position, which is important for a team that has already lost Ryan Matthews for a bit of time and a team that likes to involve running backs in their passing game.  A very important loss for a team with their sights set on contending for the Super Bowl.

Team Rising

Chicago Bears - Two wins on the road in prime time, and in fairly convincing fashion (on the field if not in the score).  If the defense tightens up just a little bit more, this team is going to be really scary to those in the NFC North.

Team Falling

New England Patriots - Barely defeated an hapless Oakland Raiders team and looked bad while doing it.  If this is any consolation, the Steelers were the team falling last week and managed to dominate this week against the Carolina Panthers.

Best Teams
(All undefeated teams will be top ranked teams until none are left - then the rankings will be the result of my true thoughts and not just records).

1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Denver Broncos

Worst Teams
(All winless teams will be bottomed ranked teams until none are left - then the rankings will be the result of my true thoughts and not just records)

32. Jacksonville Jaguars
31. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
30. Oakland Raiders
29. Miami Dolphins
28. Minnesota Vikings

Middle Teams

15.  San Francisco 49ers
16.  Pittsburgh Steelers
17.  New Orleans Saints
18.  Houston Texans

Preview - Game(s) of the Week

4.  No number 4 because their are 6 teams on a bye and the games generally suck.

3. Carolina Panthers v. Baltimore Ravens - Two teams at an early crossroads in their season, and both could certainly use a nice win at this juncture as 3-1 looks a whole lot better than 2-2 for some reason.

2.  Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers - Can the Bears win their third consecutive big game on the road or will Green Bay rebound from their funk?  Also, this is the best rivalry in professional sports.

1. Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers - The powerful offense of the Philadelphia Eagles against what used to be a stingy 49ers defense.  The Eagles could stay at 4-0 while San Francisco is trying to avoid falling into a 1-3 hole.

Trivia

In the game against the Eagles, Pierre Garcon had 138 receiving yards and DeSean Jackson had 117 receiving yards.  The last time the Redskins had two receiver over 100 yards in the same game was 2003.  Can you name the receivers?

Sports Bar Review of the Week

As stated earlier, I was at SunLife Stadium for the Kansas City - Miami debacle on Sunday, but I did venture out to watch the college games on Saturday.  So, I will review that place.

Roxy's Pub, 309 Clematis Street, West Palm Beach, FL

I must confess that I have been to this place too many times to count, so this is not exactly a completely uninterested review.  But that being said ...

The place was ridiculously packed, with every seat and most of the walkways filled with people, yet somehow you could still maneuver.  It took a little while to order the first drink, but after that, it was very friendly and timely.  Two bartenders that I did not know served us, but they were generally great after that first drink order.

This is actually an Irish pub, that does a really good facsimile of a sports bar.  There are four televisions on each side of the inside of the bar (8 total), for bar patrons to have a good view of the games, four more on the outside of the bar for those in the restaurant.  The big plus, a huge wall of various size televisions on the back wall so that those seated in the back area can see lots and lots of games.  As a sports bar it is not phenomenal,  unless you are at the back wall, but for an Irish pub, it is a great sports bar.

The food is what I would consider very good bar food.  Although somewhat common now, it was the first place I ever saw macaroni and cheese balls, which are excellent.  We usually go for our staple, the grilled wings and the chicken nachos.  The grilled wings are great with the hot teriyaki sauces mixed, and the chicken nachos are delicious, huge and made with homemade chicken chili.  Unless you have about 4 people, order the half portion.  In the past I have eaten the burgers and several wraps, which are all good, especially with the seasoned fries.

The best thing about Roxy's - the beer.  About 64 taps, most of them fairly common craft beers, meaning you can find just about whatever you like.  Our choices for the day included Avery White Rascal, Hooegarden, Abita Purple Haze, Sam Adams Oktoberfest and Harp.

Always a great time at Roxy's, even if it is overburdened with distraught Gator fans.

Service - NFC North
Drinks - NFC North
Food - NFC South
Cleanliness - NFC West
Overall - Chicago Bears (1st in the NFC North) - Really, really good!

Rating System Best to Worst:  NFC West, NFC North, NFC South, AFC West, AFC North, AFC South, AFC East, NFC East

Trivia Answer

With the loss to the Eagles on Monday night, Andrew Luck just missed the chance to set the record for most games by a quarterback without consecutive losses to start a career.  That record was held by DAN MARINO.