Two pummeling weeks in a row, although this time mostly because of the Big Bet. But seriously, who saw Cleveland covering the spread against Baltimore, much less winning outright. And that Jayden Daniels Hail Mary, now forever remembered as the Tyrique Stevenson play! Football, amirite?
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Houston Texans +2 1/2 at New York Jets
I saw this one coming a mile away. I even commented to several people that this line looked way too easy. But I fell for it anyway. Home team on a short week. Home team on a short week. Home team on a short week. I feel like I need to Bart Simpson a chalkboard with this saying.
Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
Denver's defense is really good; 7th against the run, 4th against the pass, 3rd in scoring defcnse and 3rd in total defense. But, this is a Baltimore revenge game after last week's embarrasing loss.
Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders
Yes there is only 1 game difference between these two teams, and yes Cincinnati's strength (7th in passing offense) could be counteracted by Las Vegas' strenght (7th in passing defense, but Cincy scores a lot more than the Raiders, and the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playin gin the 1:00 slot. So, I am just going to adhere to the football gambling rules and take the home team (although not sure where the falling back hour enters the equation).
New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans
The Titans defense is good to great, but their offense is pathetic. The Patriots are just bad, but they get Drake Maye back, and that has to count for something.
New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Yes I am taking a road intradivisional favorite, but I think Carolina has proven time-and-time again just how bad they really are. And, Derek Carr returns for New Orleans.
Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
Dallas' run game is truly horrific (last in the league) and now Ezekial Elliott is left home for disciplinary reasons. Is Dallas falling apart, or will they rally? We don't really know, but Atlanta's pass offense is 6th in the NFL and Dallas's pass defense is 20th, so I will go with any rally falls short.
Buffalo Bills -6 v. Miami Dolphins
Yes Tuanigamatualepola Tagavialoa has a game under his belt after returning from the league's concussion protocol, but he was healthy and at home in Week 2's 31-10 loss to these same Bills, who have the 5th-highest scoring team in the NFL, and the 6th-best scoring defense.
Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback. Could it have been a fluke? Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco. Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.
Washington Commanders -4 at New York Giants
If ever there was a game for a let down, this one could be it for the Commanders after last week's disastrous let down in the fourth quarter only to be victorious on the hail mary. And, I would think that betting-wise, especially given that Washington is an intra-divisional road favorite; however, the Giants played Monday night, and thus are on a short week. Washington continues its resurgence.
Chicago Bears +2 at Arizona Cardinals
The Bears have demoted Tyrique Stevenson for this game, but he will play. Not sure how this team adjusts after that crazy ending last week in Washington, but ARizona is 26th against the pass, and D.J. Moore is due for a crazy game.
Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Philly has won 3 in a row after losing to Cleveland in week 6, and have had two blowouts on the road in the past two weeks. They are getting hot, and Jacksonville - despite playing tough against Green Bay - is not. The Jaguars are 31st in defensing the pass, and Philadelphia has all of its weapons - including A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.
Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Los Angeles Rams
Two teams that I absolutely cannot figure out for the life of me. Both could end up 6-11 or 7-10; or in the second round of the playoffs. Crazy. Just taking the points.
Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
So, a third intradivisional favorite makes me nervous; but Detroit really looks like the best team in football right now. The offense is humming (4th overall and 1st in scoring); the defense - although not great overall (20th) - has its strengths (1st in 3rd down percentage; 5th in rush defense and 8th in scoring defense). Green Bay also has a prodigious offense (5th in rushing, 6th total offense and scoring offense, and 8th in passing offense), but their defense is way more pedestrian. Not bad, just pedestrian. Plus, with Jordan Love playing but perhaps at less than 100%, the Lions take a big jump toward home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Indianapolis Colts +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
A move to Joe Flacco could help jump start this team, given the Colts a passing threat to help make room for Jonathan Taylor. And the fact that this change came at the demand of several of the team's leaders themselves, means the rest of the team could be rallying behind Flacco (like Cleveland last year?). Not sure they win, but they should keep this close.
Kansas City Chiefs -9 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a lot of points to give up. A LOT. And, if I told you the team with the 2nd best passing offense, the 4th best scoring offense, the 5th best total offense and the 10th best rushing offense was playing on Monday - you would agree that the Chiefs are a great offense. Except those rankings are the Buccaneers. But, and it's a big BUT - like Kim Kardashian level - that was when Tampa Bay had receivers. Without receivers, this KC defense (2nd against the rush, 2nd in total defense, and 5th in scoring defense) will be too suffocating at home.
Big Bet:
Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback. Could it have been a fluke? Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco. Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.
I know this sounds crazy, but I like to pick home teams either getting points, or giving just a few, so this game fits the bill. And, we cannot view this team as the Cleveland Browns from most of the rest of the year as DeShaun Watson is not playing. He was the biggest hinderance on this offense. Look for two of Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy to approach (or hit) 100 yards receiving with Winston flinging and the Chargers' defense focused on a healthier Nick Chubb.
Record
Last Week's Record: 7-9
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 59-58-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $90
