Picks of the Week - NFL Week 9

Well, last week was back to losing.  My only solace is that we are all collectively doing poorly this year.  And if you say you are not - you are lying!!!  I am in a picks confidence league where we pick games straight up - and GOD WAS LAST WEEK BRUTAL FOR EVERYBODY!!!  So I got that going for me - which ISN'T NICE!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Yes, I know that Miami is the home team on a short week, but Baltimore looked sharp last week - as did the Dolphins, to be fair (Cue:  "To Be Fair!" chorus from Letterkenny) - but Baltimore will have Lamar Jackson back, and the Dolphins, well won't.

Chicago Bears -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Not sure that I like this pick very much, except the penalties against the Bears, especially the offense, have to come down at some point, right?  Joe Flacco is settling in well at QB - I mean who wouldn't with J'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins - but that defense is brutal (31st overall, 30th in passing defense, 32nd against the run and in scoring defense), so I have to pick a bounce-back game from the Bears.

 

Denver Broncos +1 1/2 at Houston Texans

Other than the records, these two teams are incredibly evenly matched, especially on defense where Houston has the best defense in the NFL (1st in total defense AND scoring defense), and Denver is close behind (5th in scoring/6th in total defense).  So in cases like this, I will take the points in what should be a close game.

San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 at New York Giants

I ordinarily would hate selecting a west coast team playing in the 1:00 window on the east coast, especially one GIVING points, but two main factors here for me:  (1) San Francisco received a bit of a comeuppance last week losing to the Texans, so they should be fired up for this game (and Ricky Pearsall should be returning); and (2) The Giants entire fanbase - and the fandom of every white NFL fan in America - deflated last week with Cam Skattebo's injury.  

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Although this is technically a battle of two first-place teams, these are not the same caliber of teams.  Pittsburgh is in first place by virtue of injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and the complete implosion of the Baltimore Ravens defense.  Indianapolis is in first place because of its NFL leading scoring offense - which just so happens to be incredibly balanced (6th in rushing and 6th in passing - 3rd in total offense).  Pittsburgh is 27th in total offense, which ranks better than its 30th ranked defense.  They do have a chance to show us something this week, but gimme Indianapolis and its two - yes TWO - MVP candidates - Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor.

Green Bay Packers -12 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

F' it.  Why not!

Detroit Lions -9 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

Detroit looked like Detroit again last week, which is bad news for the Vikings, who might be hard-pressed to stop the second-highest scoring team in the league.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I am picking against the Titans, likely for the rest of the year.  They need to get Cam Ward some serious playmakers, because he has actually looked good at times.  But they don't have those playmakers now.  The Chargers do, even with their injuries at running back.

New England Patriots -5 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Is it possible that Mike Vrabel just suffered from the curse of Jeff Fisher (8-8) in Tennessee and that he might actually be a really good coach?!

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am 100% sure that I do not like picking as many road favorites as I have already (this is 6), but I also know that nobody is sure what the Raiders are even doing.  They really should just trade Maxx Crosby.  the Jaguars themselves are really gambling with their treatment of Brian Thomas (see what I did there?), so I am interested in seeing how that unfolds.  I am sure Jacksonville is better, and Travis Hunter is getting more-and-more comfortable in his role(S!)

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

I would love to say that my analysis of this game swings on my vast investigation and research into how much of a jolt a team gets by just simply starting a new quarterback with the hopes and optimism that this person could be their long-term answer (Tyler Shoough), but it really just is the two touchdowns plus.

Buffalo Bills +1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The eye test really answers this game in the opposite, as Kansas City has been playing much better than Buffalo lately, but Buffalo did hang 40 last week - albeit on Carolina - plus they are getting points and Kansas City is on a short week.  Let's go ..... Buffalo!

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Sam Darnold has been very steady leading the NFC West leading Seahawks' offense this year (109.2 rating, 8th in passing and 13th total offense), but this is more about how much the Commanders miss Jayden Daniels and the fact they are on a short week.

Dallas 66Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

Byes:  Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, Philadelphia Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

I don't know how Arizona has 3 wins, and this time they have Jacoby Brissett starting.  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is going to end up wasting the majority of his younger years.

I didn't really know what to do here:  Green Bay is giving up too many points, Denver, the Chargers and Indianapolis are all on the road.  So, I settled here.

Last Week Record: 5-8

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 54-67

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 2-6

Last Week Winnings (Losses):  ($545)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,660) 

Picks of the Week

 

Two pummeling weeks in a row, although this time mostly because of the Big Bet.  But seriously, who saw Cleveland covering the spread against Baltimore, much less winning outright.  And that Jayden Daniels Hail Mary, now forever remembered as the Tyrique Stevenson play!  Football, amirite?

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at New York Jets

I saw this one coming a mile away.  I even commented to several people that this line looked way too easy.  But I fell for it anyway.  Home team on a short week.  Home team on a short week.  Home team on a short week.  I feel like I need to Bart Simpson a chalkboard with this saying.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

Denver's defense is really good; 7th against the run, 4th against the pass, 3rd in scoring defcnse and 3rd in total defense.  But, this is a Baltimore revenge game after last week's embarrasing loss.

Cincinnati Bengals -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes there is only 1 game difference between these two teams, and yes Cincinnati's strength (7th in passing offense) could be counteracted by Las Vegas' strenght (7th in passing defense, but Cincy scores a lot more than the Raiders, and the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playin gin the 1:00 slot.  So, I am just going to adhere to the football gambling rules and take the home team (although not sure where the falling back hour enters the equation).

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

The Titans defense is good to great, but their offense is pathetic.  The Patriots are just bad, but they get Drake Maye back, and that has to count for something.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Yes I am taking a road intradivisional favorite, but I think Carolina has proven time-and-time again just how bad they really are.  And, Derek Carr returns for New Orleans.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas' run game is truly horrific (last in the league) and now Ezekial Elliott is left home for disciplinary reasons.  Is Dallas falling apart, or will they rally? We don't really know, but Atlanta's pass offense is 6th in the NFL and Dallas's pass defense is 20th, so I will go with any rally falls short.

Buffalo Bills -6 v. Miami Dolphins

Yes Tuanigamatualepola Tagavialoa has a game under his belt after returning from the league's concussion protocol, but he was healthy and at home in Week 2's 31-10 loss to these same Bills, who have the 5th-highest scoring team in the NFL, and the 6th-best scoring defense.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback.  Could it have been a fluke?  Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco.  Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.

Washington Commanders -4 at New York Giants

If ever there was a game for a let down, this one could be it for the Commanders after last week's disastrous let down in the fourth quarter only to be victorious on the hail mary.  And, I would think that betting-wise, especially given that Washington is an intra-divisional road favorite; however, the Giants played Monday night, and thus are on a short week.  Washington continues its resurgence.

Chicago Bears +2 at Arizona Cardinals

The Bears have demoted Tyrique Stevenson for this game, but he will play.  Not sure how this team adjusts after that crazy ending last week in Washington, but ARizona is 26th against the pass, and D.J. Moore is due for a crazy game.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Philly has won 3 in a row after losing to Cleveland in week 6, and have had two blowouts on the road in the past two weeks.  They are getting hot, and Jacksonville - despite playing tough against Green Bay - is not.  The Jaguars are 31st in defensing the pass, and Philadelphia has all of its weapons - including A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.

Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Two teams that I absolutely cannot figure out for the life of me.  Both could end up 6-11 or 7-10; or in the second round of the playoffs.  Crazy.  Just taking the points.

Detroit Lions -2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

So, a third intradivisional favorite makes me nervous; but Detroit really looks like the best team in football right now.  The offense is humming (4th overall and 1st in scoring); the defense - although not great overall (20th) - has its strengths (1st in 3rd down percentage; 5th in rush defense and 8th in scoring defense).  Green Bay also has a prodigious offense (5th in rushing, 6th total offense and scoring offense, and 8th in passing offense), but their defense is way more pedestrian.  Not bad, just pedestrian.  Plus, with Jordan Love playing but perhaps at less than 100%, the Lions take a big jump toward home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Indianapolis Colts +5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

A move to Joe Flacco could help jump start this team, given the Colts a passing threat to help make room for Jonathan Taylor.  And the fact that this change came at the demand of several of the team's leaders themselves, means the rest of the team could be rallying behind Flacco (like Cleveland last year?).  Not sure they win, but they should keep this close.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is a lot of points to give up.  A LOT.  And, if I told you the team with the 2nd best passing offense, the 4th  best scoring offense, the 5th best total offense and the 10th best rushing offense was playing on Monday - you would agree that the Chiefs are a great offense.  Except those rankings are the Buccaneers. But, and it's a big BUT - like Kim Kardashian level - that was when Tampa Bay had receivers.  Without receivers, this KC defense (2nd against the rush, 2nd in total defense, and 5th in scoring defense) will be too suffocating at home.

Big Bet:

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Cleveland beat Baltimore last week behind Jameis Winston at quarterback.  Could it have been a fluke?  Of course it could, bet let's not forget that we saw them make the playoffs last year with Joe Flacco.  Plus, this is a 1:00 game in the Eastern time zone in which the visiting team traveled from the Pacific Time Zone.

I know this sounds crazy, but I like to pick home teams either getting points, or giving just a few, so this game fits the bill.  And, we cannot view this team as the Cleveland Browns from most of the rest of the year as DeShaun Watson is not playing.  He was the biggest hinderance on this offense.  Look for two of Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore and Jerry Jeudy to approach (or hit) 100 yards receiving with Winston flinging and the Chargers' defense focused on a healthier Nick Chubb.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-58-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-2

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $90

Picks of the Week

So, the previous week wasn't the regression from my 13-2 week, but last week really was.  Could have been a lot worse if any of the 3 ties broke in the other direction.  Yes, 3 ties.  Ridiculous.  But, gotta bounce back, so I have given serious thought to the picks this week.  Let's see how that goes.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I didn't actually want to pick the Steelers on Thursday, but somehow, just sticking to the gambling rules, home team on a short week, actually worked!!!

Miami Dolphins + 1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs (in Frankfurt, Germany)

This pick actually makes no sense, as both offenses are dynamic (1st in the Dolphins, and 4th for the Chiefs), but the Chiefs have s sturdier defense (3rd overall, 2nd in scoring, 2nd in passing).  But, I just think the Jalen Ramsey addition is going to jump start Miami after his interception last week.

Chicago Bears + 9 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Saits win easily, but I just cannot give up almost double digits and be happy watching the game.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Every fiber of my being says the Rams take this; but people lose going against the gambling rules.  We have not had a west coast team traveling east and playing in the early slot in a long time.  Gotta take the Packers.

Washington Commanders +3 at New England Patriots

Even with Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington was 29th in pass defense.  Although the Patriots have played tough recently, the Commanders won't need a pass rush to annoy Mac Jones.

Houston Texans -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston is 11th in pass offense whereas Tampa Bay is 28th in pass defense.  Expect a big game from C.J. Stroud in bouncing back from last week's loss to the Panthers.

Cleveland Browns -12 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Double digits is a tough spread in the NFL, buta rookie quarterback making his first start for a team that seems like they have clearly given up this season.  Plus, DeShaun Watson's return could spark a talented, but underachieving pass offense.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The Ravens are playing amazingly right now, and their defense will be the difference in this game.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team, traveling east, and playing in the early slot - which are historically sure losers against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

It would be that kind of year for the Bears to have the Panthers win 2 games in a row.  But, I don't think so.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

Two dumpster fires going head-to-head.  Remind me to miss this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The passing games are what is going to decide this game.  The Eagles are 26th in pass defense, and although the Cowboys are 4th, they are currently playing without any cornerbacks (ok, slight hyperbole).  Eagles because they are home.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions, so much so that I am taking the team that is the 31st ranked offense and 28th ranked defense, and giving points to the Bills.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at New York Jets

Seriously - do you actually believe that the Jets have the best record here?  (They do!)  But, the league's worst pass defense has nothing to fear in the 31st ranked passing offense, so I'll take the team that scores.

Bye Week:  Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

I don't like any of these games for the Big Bet.  My other thoughts were taking the Las Vegas Raiders, and Houston.  But, just gonna bet against the BYU quarterback in his first start.  (That's Jaren Hall, not Zach Wilson, but also applicable!!!)

Last Week's Record:  5-8-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  64-51-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($230)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,045