Picks of the Week

 

So, back on the winning track (kind of).  Two games over .500 is a start, although losing the Big Bet made me go backward monetarily.  I will take the winning week as a springboard for a monster this week (I hope?!)

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Ok, so first game and I am breaking the gambling rules by selecting the visiting team on a short week.  I don't like it, but instead of coming back down to earth after a big win over Ravens last week, I think the Steelers are going to be energized and really put it to the Browns.  I am thinking about making this my Big Bet.  We will see.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

I cannot select two road, intradivisional favorites in a row.  That would drive me crazy.  And besides, this Bears defense is no joke.  The only question is can they bounce back after a second, heart-breaking defeat last week with the Packers blocking Cairo Santos' last-second field goal.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at New York Giants

This game, and this line is utterly preposterous.  Tommy DeVito?  What on earth to make of him?  Really, I don't care as I think Baker Mayfield will be happy to have Mike Evans back!  But this game is also why I picked the Bears.  Can't select three road favorites in the first 3 games.

Detroit Lions -7 at Indianapolis Colts

Until somebody proves otherwise, I am selecting the Lions.  I almost don't care the spread.  1st in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense, 3rd in rushing offense, 6th, in passing offense, 5th in scoring and rushing defense all make for a helluva squad.

Tennessee Titans -7 1/2 at Houston Texans

Only because Houston played Monday night.  The return of Nico Collins really does make for a more potent offense, though, so I was tempted to give the points, but Tennessee's defense is 1st against the pass and 2nd in total defense.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. New England Patriots

A whole lot of favorites here, but I think that Miami could put together a bit of a win streak here to make the playoff chase interesting down the line.

Washington Commanders -10 v. Dallas Cowboys

As I stated last week, going against the Cowboys until proven otherwise, almost no matter the spread.  And Dallas is on a short week this week (and next week, too!)

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

OK, not sure if it is me that is not even trying and just picking favorites, or if these games really are out-of-control this week.  Picking KC not because of Mahomes, but because their 3rd rated defense is palying the worst rated offense.

Denver Broncos -6 at Las Vegas Raiders

I can't help myself.  The Broncos have been undersold on the betting lines all year, and the Raiders - except for Brock Bowers - might be tanking.  Oh year, and Maxx Crosby, that guy plays 100% no matter what.

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game go either way.  Even though it is only 1 point, I will take it.  Perhaps a 28-27 push.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Love will make a crucial turnover.  San Francisco is getting George Kittle back.  He will be the difference.   That was my thoughts before seeing that Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa are both out, and maybe Trent Williams.  You know Bosa is hurt because he would have loved sacking Jordan Love.

Los Angeles Rams +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I actually think Philly is the better team and will win.  I do, however, really like this Rams team and would love to see them end up in the playoffs.  It will be hard to find a game with better receivers than A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Cooper Kupp, and Puca Nakua.  Should be a fun one to watch!

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

Baltimore will be angry after their loss to the Steelers.  The Chargers defense is number 1 in scoring, but they are 11th total and rushing, and 12th passing.  Baltomre is first in total offense, second in scoring and rushing, and 3rd in passing.  They are last in the league against the pass, so there might be some plays for Justin Herbert to exploint, but I think the Ravens win bigger than most think.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Love will make a crucial turnover.  San Francisco is getting George Kittle back.  He will be the difference.   That was my thoughts before seeing that Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa are both out, and maybe Trent Williams.  You know Bosa is hurt because he would have loved sacking Jordan Love.

Too many injuries for San Francisco against a really good team.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  77-82-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,245)

The Ole College Try

This was week 13, or more importantly, the first of two consecutive weeks of rivalry games.  Who knows what can happen in a rivalry game?  Well, almost everyone as most games played out according to form.  Which ones did and didn't - stay tuned.

Game of the Week

Yale Bulldogs 50 - Harvard Crimson 43.  Now, for those of you that think that i am biased for picking a game with my alma mater, this is NOT a biased selection.  This truly was the game of the week.  It was tremendous.  And, the bad guys won, so you know it had to be good for me to select this game.  Harvard jumped out to a lead, was up 17 with like 6 minutes left, and up 14 with just over a minute left.  A touchdown, recovered onside kick, and a touchdown sent the game to overtime - IN THE DARK.  Let me emphasize this - THE YALE BOWL DOES NOT HAVE LIGHTS.  Now, why was the game scheduled to end in the dark if there are no lights?  It wasn't.  Students protesting and demanding for divestment from fossil fuel and climate change causing companies did a sit-in at halftime, causing a 48 minute delay.  43 people arrested.  In overtime, Harvard scores on the first play.  Yale scores to tie the game, and then scores again in the second overtime to go up 7.  Harvard gets into a 4th and 5, where coach Tim Murphy calls a bubble screen, which gains 4 1/2 yards to come up just short.  Yale secures a share of the Ivy League title, despite fumbling into the end zone on the first drive, but somehow replay gave the ball back to Yale, which eventually scored a field goal.   Yale quarterback Kurt Rawlings can play on Sunday.

Best Team Performance

Utah Utes.  Other teams had bigger wins, and still other teams had more impressive wins, but Utah, with an opportunity to clinch their division with only one loss (which Oregon failed to do on the other side of the conference), Utah defeated Arizona 35-7, giving up only a meaningless fourth quarter touchdown.  If Utah can win the Pac-12, they would be in contention for the last playoff spot with LSU (if Georgia wins the SEC), or with Alabama and Oklahoma (if LSU wins the SEC). Solidly doing what they had to do, can bring Utah into the playoff discussion.

Least Impressive Team Performance

Oregon Ducks.  The exact converse of Utah, the Ducks laid an egg when given the opportunity to stay in the playoff discussion, falling 31-28 to the Arizona State Sun Devils, helped at least in part by 2 consecutive fourth quarter interceptions by Justin Herbert.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Offense)

Kedon Slovis, QB - USC Trojans.  The freshman QB, paying in his first rivalry game, was 37-47 for 515 yards and 4 TDs.  He spread the ball around well, as four different receivers gained at least 100 yards in the game as USC outdistanced UCLA 52-35.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Defense)

Xavier McKinney, DB - Alabama Crimson Tide. McKinney had only 3 tackles, but 2 interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, as Alabama destroyed Western Carolina 66-3.

Most Impressive Individual Performance (Special Teams)

Coby Bryant, CB - Cincinnati Bearcats.  Temple scores a touchdown to cut Cincinnati's lead to 13-6 in the fourth quarter, where Bryan returns the extra point for a 2 point defensive conversion to put the Bearcats up 15-6.  A later touchdown by Temple brings Cincinnati's lead down to the 2 point conversion, keeping the 10-1 Bearcats in the conversation for Group of 5 New Year's Bowl game.

Goat of the Week (Player Edition)

Every Harvard student that protested at halftime of the Harvard-Yale game.  You made the game finish in the dark, where Harvard could only try short passes and runs to try to tie the game.  You suck!

Goat of the Week (Coach Edition)

Tim Murphy - Harvard Crimson.  I get why you called the screen on 4th and 5 in double overtime, nobody could see if the pass was much longer, and, a first down was only a half a block away.  But, why did you try on onside kick in the fourth quarter up 17, giving Yale good field position to get that first score needed to start a comeback?  Don't you know Yale invented the onside kick?

Breakthrough Performance

Aiden Borguet, RB - Havard Crimson.  The first-year running back gained 269 on 11 carries, but he had 243 on his first 6 carries, with 4 TDs, to single-legedly push Harvard into its lead against Yale in his first ever appearance in THE GAME.

Finally

Bud Foster, DC - Virginia Tech Hokies.  Finally his last home game.  After coaching at Virginia Tech for 12,749 years, Bud Foster is finally retiring, and his last home game is a 28-0 shutout. Can coordinators make the College Football Hall of Fame?

Impact Injury

Tua Tagavailoa, QB - Alabama.  It is still Tua.

Team Rising

Oklahoma Sooners.  I know that it is hard to say that a team ranked 9th in the country is rising, but after defeating TCU 28-24, and with Ohio State's victory over Penn State, the Sooners are back in playoff contention.  Should LSU defeat Georgia in the SEC championship game (and Clemson and Ohio State take care of business), there will be only a few teams left for the last playoff spot, and that includes Alabama (if they defeat Auburn), Utah (if it wins the Pac-12), and Oklahoma - which has Oklahoma State and Baylor (for the second time) remaining. Given a possible conference championship for Oklahoma, it should have the advantage over Alabama.

Team Falling

SMU Mustangs.  One of the last 7 undefeateds after starting 8-0, SMU lost to Navy 35-28, its second loss of its last 3 games.  Once a contender for the Group of 5 spot in the New Year's Day Bowl game, SMU has slipped to also-ran status, as Cincinnati, Memphis, Boise State and Appalachian State remain at 1 loss.

Player(s) to Watch

Kurt Rawlings, QB - Yale Bulldogs.  Although he has played his last collegiate game since the Ivy League prohibits its football teams from playing in the I-AA, I mean FCS, playoffs (because the schedule interferes with finals for most of the schools), Rawlings went out with a bang in The Game, going 33-53 for 417 yards and 3 TDs, while gaining another 62 yards and an additional TD on the ground.  I HATE HIM!   

My New Favorite Player

Aiden Borguet, RB - Harvard Crimson.  He has SPEED.  Not Ivy League speed, but real speed.  His 4 touchdowns came on runs of 47, 59, 60, and and 67 yards.  I cannot wait to watch him run rampant through the Ivy League the next three years, despite starter Devin Darrington returning for his senior year.

Players of the Week

5.  Zack Moss, RB - Utah Utes.  Moss gained 203 yards on 26 carries, and scored 1 TD in Utah's 35-7 win over Arizona.

4.  Jonathan Taylor, RB - Wisconsin Badgers.  He gained 222 yards on 28 carries, with 1 TD as Wisconsin defeated Purdue 45-24, and putting Wisconsin in a must-win against Minnesota for the division championship.

3.  Jayden Daniels, QB - Arizona State Sun Devils.  The freshman QB threw for 408 yards and 3 TDs as Arizona State dashed Oregon'a playoff hopes 31-28.

2.  Kurt Rawlings, QB - Yale Bulldogs.  See above.

1.  Kedon Slovis, QB - USC Trojans.  See above.

Predicted Playoffs/Championship Match Ups

LSU Tigers (1) v. Oregon Ducks (4)/ (2) Ohio State Buckeyes v. (3) Clemson Tigers

Remaining Unbeatens

Clemson, LSU, Ohio State

Remaining Winless Team

Akron

Rant(s) of the Week

I understand the students felt like they were doing a good deed in protesting in favor of climate change, and asking for the divestment of school monies from companies that contribute to climate change, but boy was that the worst protest ever - and in contributed to Harvard losing the game.

Last Week's Trivia Answer

Last week's question was:

Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor eclipsed the NCAA record for most rushing yards through a junior season.  Whose record did he break?

The answer is Herschel Walker.

Match up(s) to Watch

5. Virginia Tech v. Virginia - The intrastate rivalry is increasingly important as the winner claims the ACC Coastal title and the opportunity to upset Clemson in the ACC Championship game.

4.  Cincinnati v. Memphis - In what could be the most exciting game of the weekend, Cincinnati has already clinched its division, whereas Memphis is tied with Navy.  A Memphis win sets up a re-match next week.

3.  Wisconsin v. Minnesota - The winner of this game wins the division, and the opportunity to play Ohio State for the Big 10 Championship.  If that winner is Minnesota, they would remain in playoff contention.  If it is Wisconsin, just the chance they could beat Ohio State could bring chaos to the playoffs.  

2.  Ohio State v. Michigan - Michigan has been playing incredibly well as of late, and if there was ever an interesting time for the underdog in this rivalry to pull out an upset - this would be it.

1.  Alabama v. Auburn - Last week was not much of a challenge for Mac Jones, or shall we say, Tua's replacement.  This game will show whether Alabama can play without Tua Tagavailoa, as Auburn's defense is outstanding and the Tigers/War Eagles/Plainsmen are at home. Although Auburn's offense has been stymied by exceptional defenses (Florida/LSU), Alabama's defense this year is not exceptional.  Does that increase Auburn's chances to win?  You bet.  Will they?  We shall see..

Trivia Question of the Week

With two sacks against Penn State, Ohio State defensive end has set the school record for sacks in a season with 16 1/2 (despite being suspended for 2 games).  Whose record did he break?

The Ole College Try

So Sinickal has called me out about my post that Terrence Cody deserves the Heisman Trophy. He absolutely does. PERIOD!!! However, I know how the whole Heisman voting works, so Cody doesn't have a prayer. So, given that the season is beginning to wrap up with Rivalry Weeks being this weekend and next weekend, I will replace my usual Heisman Watch/Recap of games with an actual sample of what my Heisman ballot would look like if I had a vote (and if I could vote for 5 spots rather than the usual 3).

Despite the fact that I believe Cody deserves the award, he will not get my 1st place vote, as I want to maximize the points for the most deserving candidate out of those that actually have a chance to win. Here is my ballot, bottom to top.

5. Kellen Moore, QB - Boise State. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a 172.49 QB rating. He has thrown for a nation leading 32 touchdowns, despite 214 fewer passing attempts than second place Case Keenum of Houston (31 TDs in 514 attempts compared to 32 TDs in 300 attempts for Moore). Plus, Moore deserves to get some votes to offset the fact that Boise State has absolutely no chance to play in the BCS championship game, despite its undefeated season (although it should be in a BCS bowl game, likely the Fiesta again).

4. Terrence Cody, DT - Alabama. Please see this column, where I exalt the virtues of Mr. Cody.

3. Mark Ingram, RB - Alabama. Ingram is Sinickal's selection for Heisman at this point, and a strong case could be made for Ingram, as he is 5th in nation in rushing yards and, more importantly, leads the SEC in rushing. He has 1297 yards at a 6.7 yards clip. However, he only has 10 touchdowns, which is significantly less than other top Running Backs, and Alabama's offense is not that scary in total, anyway. He looks like he will be phenomenal next year, and an early season Heisman favorite. However, this year, he isn't even the best running back. That title belongs to ...


2. C.J. Spiller, RB - Clemson. Spiller only has 836 yards rushing this season, but he also has 382 yards receiving, and 1.2 million return yards. (OK - only 734 yards). He also has 4 return touchdowns this year. You read that correctly - 4! And in every game he plays, he is the best player on the field. But he isn't the only multi-threat player in the game. The best multi-threat player in the game is also my Heisman winner to date. This year's Heisman Trophy should go to ...


1. JORDAN SHIPLEY, WR - Texas. Shipley has the statistics: 81 receptions (6h in the nation), 1,096 yards (5th in the nation) and 8 TDs (14th in the nation), as well as 303 punt return yards and 2 punt returns for TD. But more importantly, he is in control of every Texas game. You may turn on the television to watch Colt McCoy, but your eye will migrate to the apparently always open Shipley. He is the one guy every Longhorn opponent has to account for, otherwise it will be a long game, and Texas opponents have had several long games.

Notice that none of my top 5 include the pre-season top 3 of Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and Tim Tebow.

Onto the rest of the college football world.

MY NEW FAVORITE PLAYER

DeAndre McDaniel - S - Clemson - I still think that Eric Berry is the best safety, and most likely the best defensive player, in the NCAA, but I have seen McDaniel play 2 whole games, and snippets of others. He is a ball hawk in the true sense of the word, He has 8 interceptions, but he also has 70 tackles, showing he isn't afraid to stick his nose into the running game.

PREDICTED BCS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME MATCHUP

Alabama v. Texas - Not sure anybody can stop Texas, and obviously, barring a huge upset of Alabama by Auburn or Florida by Florida State, the SEC Champion will be in this game. Right now, that looks like Alabama.

WHAT SEMI LIKELY EVENT TCU, BOISE STATE AND CINCINNATI NEED TO OCCUR THIS WEEK

My assumption of Iowa losing occurred. So now that they are out of the picture for the Championship, TCU, Boise State and Cincinnati all need this to occur this week (Keep in mind other parameters can be met in subsequent weeks, this is just for this week).

Kansas, whose players rally behind Coach Mangino, halt a 5 game slide and defeat Texas. Let's face it, this is much more likely that Chattanooga defeating Alabama or Florida International defeating Florida.

PREDICTED BCS BOWL GAMES

BCS Championship Game - See Above.

Fiesta Bowl - Boise State v. Penn State
Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech v. Cincinnati
Rose Bowl - Oregon v. Ohio State
Sugar Bowl - Florida v. TCU

The Fiesta Bowl will need a big travelling team to counteract Boise State's presence. Penn State is just too attractive of a candidate. Much more attractive than Iowa or Pittsburgh. Oklahoma State could be an option if the beat Oklahoma next week, but without Zac Robinson, that is much less likely.

The Orange Bowl is hoping for a Georgia Tech victory over Clemson in the ACC Championship game. That could pit an undefeated Cincinnati against a one-loss Georgia Tech team. Remember Cincinnati beat Virginia Tech here last year. Of course, Cincinnati needs to beat Pittsburgh in the league, and season, finale to qualify as the Big East Champion.

The Rose Bowl will pit the Big Ten Champion (Ohio State) versus the Pac-10 Champion (likely Oregon, but Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona still in the mix - with Arizona and Oregon playing this week.

The Sugar Bowl will take the SEC second place team (in my scenario Florida), and pit a one loss SEC team against the likely undefeated TCU.

TRIVIA QUESTION OF THE WEEK

C.J Spiller has 4 total return touchdowns (both kickoff and punt returns combined) this season, and 7 for his career. What is the NCAA record for most return touchdowns in a career, with at least one touchdown return for kickoff and punt? Bonus if you can name who holds the record. Place your guesses in the comments.

LAST WEEK'S TRIVIA ANSWER

Last entry's trivia question was, "USC was torched by Oregon on Halloween evening, October 31. Losing on Halloween allowed USC to keep one streak alive. How many consecutive games have the Trojans won in the month of November?" The answer was 28, before last week's obliteration at the hands of Stanford.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH

3. California v. Stanford - Not only is this a big rivalry game, Stanford needs it to stay in the Pac-10 championship hunt.

2. Oregon v. Arizona - Oregon can win the Pac-10, and they are simply exciting to watch. Arizona has come out of nowhere.

1. Harvard v. Yale - THE GAME! Enough said.