This season has already been incredibly difficult, and not just for those of us who bet based on the point spread. Ya'll really need to check on your friends that just pick winners/losers - they are not all right. A .500 week, not great but I did win my big bet, so in the black for the week.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Dallas Cowboys -5 at New York Giants
My regular readers know that I hate picking a road intra-divisional favorite, and I hate picking the road team on a short week even more. Why did I pick Dallas, then? Well, the spread started at 6 1/2 and moved down to 5. That means lots of money coming in on the Giants. When that happens, go the opposite. Didn't matter as this game pushed.
Chicago Bears -3 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Bears offense may be generally unproductive, byt the Rams defense equally stinks. This should provide an opportunity for the Bears to open some things up on offense and if unsuccessful, let the 7th ranked defense hold the Rams, especially since the Bears are second in 3rd down percentage defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
The NFL's number 1 defense versus the NFL's 31st ranked defense. George Pickens with 2 touchdowns.
Minnesota Vikings +3 at Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love is expected to be active, but is he really going to be ready to play?
Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is on a short week, and this Jaguars team may go down as one of the all-time disappointments in NFL history. At least they didn't pay Trevor Lawrence recod-type money! (Oh, never mind!)
New Orleans Saints +3 at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta has been a very good 1-2 team; and the Saints had one of the most impressive wins when they decimated Dallas in week 2. This game likely turns on whether Alvin Kamara plays or not, but since he is playing right now - albeit questionable - gotta take these points.
Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers are going to disappint until they learn: (1) To get the ball more to Mike Evans; and (2) play Bucky Irving more in the run game.
Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous. Not playoffs, but dangerous. I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes. Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.
Denver Broncos +8 at New York Jets
The Jets we expected to see under Aaron Rodgers showed up last week, and could be areal contender. I just don't like the 8 points, and Denver dismantled Tampa Bay last week, and play Pittsburgh tight the week prior. This could be really close.
Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders
Rookie quarterback playing in his first short week, and on the road.
San Francisco 49ers -10 v. New England Patriots
I despise taking double digit favorites, but San Francisco is coming off two straight upset losses, so they need to really take control of a game. In addition, this Patriots team stinks.
Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders
I am a big Antonio Pierce fan, and I belive him when he says he is not going to put up with the effort the Raiders gave last week; except then Davante Adams went out with a hanstring injury, and I am not sure where Las Vegas gets its offensive energy and emotion. Cleveland is not very good either, but they overmatch the Raiders.
Los Angeles Chargers +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, I know all about Justin Herbert's injury, and even though he is playing he could be hobbled. But I also know that the Chargers have the 7th-best rushing offense in the NFL and the 6th best total defense in the NFL. And yes, the Chiefs are 3-0, but they have not been that impressive of a 3-0 team. Even if I win, I think this game is within a touchdown.
Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
To me, Buffalo has been the most impressive team in the NFL this year. But, Baltimore should be more motivated, as they NEED this game. Yes, this early in the season and they NEED a win. Plus, Buffalo is on a short week, of which I expect the Ravens to take advantage.
Tennessee Titans +2 /2 v. Miami Dolphins
I know what Tennessee brings to the table this year; and it isn't good. What I don't know is what Tyler Huntley brings to the table this year. When there is uncertainty like this, I take the points.
Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Two legitimate playoff teams clashing on Monday night. A great time to watch football. I am taking the points with Seattle primarily because Seattle is the third-best passing offense in the league, and Detroitis 19th in pass defense. And yes, Detroit has a great offense (4th in total offense; 4th in rushing offense; 7th in passing offense), but Seattle is second in total defense (1st in passing defense). I'll take the points.
Big Bet:
Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous. Not playoffs, but dangerous. I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes. Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.
Although I am not sold on Carolina overall, for my big bet I like to take a home team whenever possible, and if they are getting points even better. I thought about the Chargers for that reason, but I don't like betting big against Patrick Mahomes. I also considered Philadelphia, but that violates both of my preferences. Five points is a decent amount, so I make this bet, hope and believe that Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson provide the Red Rifle with as much support as he needs, and trust that Cincy's short week hurts them.
Record
Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 21-25-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 3-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $70
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($200)
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