Picks of the Week

It is the heart of the season where teams make a playoff push, or fall, and bettors make money, or lose.  Time to button-up and get some wins.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The first game between these two teams was an overtime barnburner, but this time around is a short week for the visting Bengals.  Still managed to take it down to the wire.

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany

Carolina is embarrasing - so let's send them overseas.

Chicago Bears -6 v. New England Patriots

Perhaps this bet is just hopeful.

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

This might just be the defense that Caleb Williams needs to right the ship and prove that he is improving in his rookie season.  This is not the defense Drake Maye wants to see right now, even though he has shown promise in his few starts.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

West coast team traveling east versus team on a short week. So, there is no good bet here.  I am taking the team with returning playmakers (McCaffrey and Jennings), versus the team without them (Godwin and Evans).

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I would feel much better if this was a 6 1/2 point spread, as this is a divisional game, but DeAndre Hopkins makes this Chiefs offense way scarier, as defenses had focused on Travis Kelce, and now they can't.  Plus, the Chiefs deense has been outstanding (2nd overall, 3rd against the rush, and 4th in scoring).

Buffalo Bills -4 at Indianapolis Colts

For all of the blame that Indy's offense, particularly Anthony Richardson, has taken this year, the Colts' defense is 30th in total defense, 26th in passing, 31st in rushing, and 24th in 3rd down percentage.  Just what Josh Allen needs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Washington Commanders

The marquee game of the week.  Really just playing a hunch here, given Brian Robinson is out for Washington.

Minnesota Vikings -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota as a road favorite this high is tough, but Jacksonville's defense is 31st in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (and 30th in scoring defense), not good when going against Justin Jefferson.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Another big spread, but at least this time at home.  Chargers are the stingiest team to score against, and Tennessee rarely scores (27th in NFL).

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia has won 4 in a row, and the Cowboys are without Dak Prescott, and CeeDee Lamb is hobbled.

New York Jets -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Just a hunch honestly, based on the Jets defense (2nd in passing, 6th in total defense, 10th in scoring defense).

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins would be a great return for this Texans, but he still might not be up-to-speed, and this Lions team is humming with 6 wins in a row.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The Rams are on a 3-game winning streak, and get to host the struggling Dolphins at home.  Can the Rams defense (24th against the run) slow down Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert?  Enough, yes, given that the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have made this offense way more potent than its ranking (18th).

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

When you take a lot of favorites, you have to select a big bet giving points, and 3 1/2 is not that much given how easily I think the Falcons will win.  It has taken a while for the defense - and all its new members - to gel, but Justin Simmons and the other new Falcons are certainly coming around.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-66-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-3

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($355)

Picks of the Week

After an awful week, I am going to try to spend a bit of time analyzing my selections this week.  See if I cannot turn this around.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -1 at Arizona Cardinals
I hate selecting the road teams on Thursday night (or any short week, really), but Arizona is a special type of bad this year.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans at Wembley Stadium (London)
Yes, Melvin Gordon is a late scratch, which hurts this selection, but I just didn't have enough time to process all of that, and the line-makers didn't either.  I still don't know how Tennessee has won as many games as they have.

Chicago Bears + 1 1/2 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots are better, yes, I get that.  But after the egg that Chicago laid last week at Miami, and with Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack both playing - and Rob Gronkowski not, I could see this being 31-30, or 21-20.

Indianapolis Colts -7 v. Buffalo Bills
Two weeks ago, Derek Anderson was out of football.  OUT OF FOOTBALL.  And here he is signed and starting.  You mean to tell me that Derek Anderson is better than Colin Kaepernick?

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I have gone back-and-forth on this game a number of times.  First, the Jaguars defense has not looked good the last couple of weeks, and could be just the remedy the Texans need to jump start their offense.  But, DeAndre Hopkins is hurt, and although will still play - and might still have a big game - they might not have enough firepower to beat the Jaguars - IF the Jaguars we know return to the field.  But then again, Blake Bortles.  Ugh.

Detroit Lions -3 at Miami Dolphins
There is no way the Lions allow two 70+ yard screen passes for touchdowns this week like Chicago gave up to Brock Osweiler, who has yet to actually throw a ball 8 yards pass the line of scrimmage.

Minnesota -3 1/2 at New York Jets 
I don't think that Isaiah Crowell can rush for that many yards against this Minnesota Vikings defense.  Not sure that the Jets can cover both Stefan Diggs AND Adam Thielen.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Strength versus strength:  Carolina is 4th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia is 2 in rush defense.  Philadelphia has so much more to offer on the other side of the ball, though.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Browns, who are 5th in the NFL in rushing, have just handed the keys to rookie Nick Chubb, as they traded Carlos Hyde to the Jaguars this week.  Will be interested in seeing how, if at all, that affects the offense.  Tampa is still not very dynamic without Ryan Fitzpatrick, so I will take the points.

New Orleans Saints + 2 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
One of the two marquee games this week, with the best offense versus the best defense.  Can Joe Flacco do enough so that the defense doesn't have to stop Drew Brees?  Probably, but Drew Brees still makes just enough plays to probably win outright.

Washington Racists +1 v. Dallas Cowboys
Two good defenses, with virtually anemic offenses.  Washington is at home, and for some reason, I just think they are better.

San Francisco 49ers +9 v. Los Angeles Rams
Let's be clear, Rams win this game.but San Francisco has not been a pushover since losing Jimmy Garrapolo. I see a backdoor cover on a last minute touchdown by San Francisco to lost by 7.

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City's offense is virtually unstoppable, but their defense gives up everything (last in total defense, 31st in pass defense; 27th in run defense), and Cincinnati is the 6th highest scoring team in the league.  I will take 6 points knowing Kansas City is going to give up a lot themselves.

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. New York Giants
A Monday Night Football game that most people won't watch.

Big Bet
Philadelphia Eagles -5 v. Carolina Panthers
Strength versus strength:  Carolina is 4th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia is 2 in rush defense.  Philadelphia has so much more to offer on the other side of the ball, though.

I almost selected the Indianapolis game, but Derek Anderson is that much of a wildcard.

Last Week's Record: 6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 45-42-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($480)

Picks of the Week

I had a decent week last week  Not amazing, but a winning week.  That was two in  a row.  A really good week this week will put me in great spirits heading into Christmas.

The NFL has already played 2 games this week, and I was conversing on Facebook with longtime reader Brent Bellinger, so he can vouch that I made picks prior to kickoff of those games.  Not that one win and push is much to brag about, but I strive to keep things accurate.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Just FYI - This week's games were really tough for me.  A large number of them I bounced back-and-forth before settling on my decision.

Tampa Bay +2 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
If only Winston showed up earlier.

New York Jets -3 at Dallas Cowboys
I try to avoid road favorites, but this one involved Matt Cassell.  How was I to know Kellen Moore would become involved?

Chicago Bears + 5 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
The Bears have kept most of their games close this year, so 5 1/2 seems like a lot of points.  Plus, there is an actual chance of the Bears winning, so this is one underdog I feel comfortable selecting.

Baltimore Ravens + 6 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs
This is not even close to the Ravens team we expected to see, but they play every game close, are at home, and getting almost a touchdown.  I feel the Chiefs should still win, but not by that much.  Plus, Lamarr Houston is out of the game, so it will be more difficult for the Chiefs to mount a huge pass rush, on which their defense relies.

Houston Texans + 1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts
This is for the AFC South lead.  That is right, your read that correctly.  The winner of this battle of 6-7 Titans will be in first in the AFC South.  And to think of all of the vitriol us wannabe commentators have reserved for the NFC East.  Texans defense makes a couple of more plays.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons are reeling, having lost 6 in a row and 7 of their last 8.  The Jaguars are 1 game out of first, and are suddenly an offensive juggernaut having scored 51 and 39 in their last 2 games.  This Bortles guy might be for real.

New England Patriots -14 v. Tennessee Titans
If you were an emerging young quarterback, would you want Belichick to game plan against you?  This game could be fairly close, but a late turnover by Mariota leads to a Patriots score which covers.

Carolina Panthers -4 at New York Giants
Cold and windy in New Jersey today, and the popular pick seems to be that the Giants are going to win outright.  But it is windy, and I trust Cam Newton's strong arm over Eli Manning's in weather conditions.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at Washington Racists
My inability to understand the Racists is well documented, and the Bills are on the road.  But consider this, the Redskins are 1 of their last 6 in covering the spread the week after a win,  Plus, when Washington wins, Marcus will again thank me for being completely oblivious in my picks in the Washington games.  Karlos Williams returns today, giving Buffalo a nice 1-2 running attack with LeSean McCoy.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders showed a lot of promise early, but despite last week's win have leveled out some.  Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties last week for the Packers, to tremendous results.

Seattle Seahawks -14 v. Cleveland Browns
So I have picked 4 road favorites already, I might as well make it two double digit favorites as well.  Seattle is clicking, and the Browns are the Browns.

Denver Broncos +6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, Pittsburgh's offense with Roethlisberger, Williams, Brown, Bryant, Wheaton and Miller have been amazing since Roethlisberger returned from injury, but Denver leads the NFL in total defense at 272.5 yards per game and scoring defense at 17.3 points per game.

Miami Dolphins +1 at San Diego Chargers
When two really bad teams play each other, I'll take the points, even if it is only 1.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 at San Francisco 49ers
Listen, I realize that Alabama quarterbacks haven't won in the NFL since Ken Stabler (editors note:  not fact-checked), but McCarron looked pretty good throwing the ball after being thrust into last week's game.  With a week of practice, and with A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert to catch passes, could he actually win?

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
I might as well go for broke and make it 6 road favorites.  I really, really wanted to pick Philadelphia here, as the home team in the prime time game getting points, but I just don't trust Chip Kelly.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
Not an exciting Monday night game at all, and that is a shame on Christmas Week.  I think the best game on Monday is going to be the Miami Beach Bowl between Western Kentucky and South Florida (which is not in Miami Beach, or even in South Florida).

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
The Raiders showed a lot of promise early, but despite last week's win have leveled out some.  Mike McCarthy took over play calling duties last week for the Packers, to tremendous results.

I was deciding between this game, and Denver +6 at Pittsburgh.  The smarter play between two road teams would be to select the team receiving points, especially one with a defense as tough as Denver's.  However, I could see a scenario where Pittsburgh wins by a touchdown, and I really do not see Oakland in this game, so Green Bay it is.

Last Week's Record:  9-7
Year-to-Date Record: 107-94-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 11-3
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $280
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $1,295

Picks of the Week

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Detroit Lions
Hail Mary!

Chicago Bears -6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Blaine Gabbert!

Houston Texans + 3 1/2 at Buffalo Bills
Houston can smell the playoffs, and I think they will win their division at this point.  Buffalo is much improved from last year, but they seem to have already peaked this year.

Cincinnati Bengals -8 at Cleveland Browns
Not only am I picking the dreaded road favorite, but they are also favored by more than 1 touchdown.  But, I feel like we might even see Spurgeon Wynn back at QB for Cleveland here sometime soon, so I'll give the points.

Baltimore Ravens +4 at Miami Dolphins
Baltimore's games have all been incredibly close, and the Dolphins seem to be unraveling.  Baltimore's run defense bottles up Lamar Miller (as does the Dolphins playcalling), and even if Miami wins, this game will be close.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at Minnesota Vikings
I have gone back-and-forth on this game all weekend, but it seems like Seattle's offensive line is playing better, keeping Wilson from being hit as much.  The secondary - believe it or not - is a bit of a liability for the Seahawks right now, but Minnesota does not have the weapons to take advantage of that.

New York Jets -2 1/2 at New York Giants
The battle for the Meadowlands.  Fitzpatrick throws two touchdown passes to Brandon Marshall to beat the Giants.

Arizona Cardinals -4 1/2 at St. Louis Rams
The Cardinals are flying high, and the Rams secondary has been suspect, so I expect Larry Fitzgerald to have a huge game.  The Cardinals defense keeps the St. Louis offense from doing much damage at all.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
Yes, I believe in Jameis.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at Tennessee Titans
The Titans just doe not have any true offensive weapons to help Marcus Mariota, well, OK, maybe Delanie Walker.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Oakland Raiders
Oakland has cooled off after their surprising start, and although they seem poised to have a great future, Kansas City is having a great present.  Plus, Kansas City is one of the two teams that has confounded me the most this year.  So, no more doubting.

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
Another road favorite, but I couldn't help it.  The Chargers are horrible this year.

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
See the above Denver note, but New Orleans has been just a bit better than horrible.

New England Patriots -8 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The most disparate matchup this week, as Belichick is coming off their first loss, which we all know will not sit well with the Patriots.  Chip Kelly seems to have lost the Eagles and they are going backwards.  I was just hoping for a 6 1/2 point spread just in case Philadelphia scores a late TD to lost by 7.

Indianapolis Colts +9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Another big spread, and I just cannot see Indianapolis stopping Pittsburgh's offense, but Matt Hasselback is 4-0 since starting for the Colts.  Pittsburgh by 6,

Washington Racists -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys
Along with the Chiefs, the Racists are the team that has perplexed me the most this year, and I know I should take them at home as they have been playing great at home, but, I don't want to do it.  But I have to.  The Cowboys are 0-7 in games in which Tony Romo doesn't start.  So, it's the Racists.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 at San Diego Chargers
Another road favorite, but I couldn't help it.  The Chargers are horrible this year.

I hate giving points for my Big Bet of the week, but I just had to take the red-hot Broncos, along with the resurgent (hopefully) C.J. Anderson against Phillip Rivers and absolutely nobody.

Last Week's Record:  8-8
Year-to-Date Record: 89-82-5
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-3
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: $70
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $735

Picks of the Week

A pathetically average week, one in which I lost, but not too bad.  Two last minutes scores turned wins into pushes.  I am hoping that by putting my pics in on Thursday, and not rushing through them on Sunday morning might help.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Miami Dolphins +8 at New England Patriots
Thursday games are tough, but since Miami is finally playing like a lot of people thought they could play this year, I think they can keep this close.  The Patriots last week just decided not to run at all for the entire game, with Tom Brady as the team's leading rusher on 3 carries, so they might try a game where they do nothing but run.  That could prove difficult against an emerging Dolphins defensive line.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Minnesota Vikings
Finally the Bears get a home game on Halloween weekend (they have had byes the past few years).  Why is this important?  They get to wear their home alternate orange jerseys!

Detroit Lions +5 at Kansas City Chiefs
I cannot figure this game out.  When that happens, I'll take the points.  No Jamaal Charles for the Chiefs, and seemingly not much other offense either, so it will be tough to outscore Detroit by more than 5.  At some point, the Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson connection has to have a good game, right?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is no longer red-hot, and is struggling offensively - with the singular exception of Devonta Freemen, who is nursing a bit of a hamstring.  Tampa's defense, led by Lavonte David, should keep this game close.  I still like the Falcons to win, but not to cover.

Baltimore Ravens -3 v. San Diego Chargers
Both teams have been extremely disappointing.  I take the Ravens on the basis that every game they have lost has been extremely close, and they deserve a break or two to win one at home.  By 4.

Arizona Cardinals -4 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
So I am selecting a road favorite that is also a west coast team traveling east for the 1:00 game; however, (1) It is against Cleveland; and (2) they do save an hour as daylight savings time ends.

Tennessee Titans pick 'em at Houston Texans
The Texans are awful, and Tennessee is not much better.  I just think something weird is going to happen in this game whereas the Texans are going to need a backup quarterback given that Mallett is gone.  Plus, can Mettenberger make enough plays?

New York Giants +3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
What a difference a division makes.  The Giants are 4-3, but in first place, while the Saints are 3-4 and in third place.  If the Giants offensive line can hold up, they should be able to at least keep this game close, while Drew Brees is due for a 2 or 3 interception game.

Cincinnati Bengals pick 'em at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are trying to keep themselves in the AFC North race, and a victory will pull them within one game of the Bengals.  However, Cincinnati's defense can shut down the Steelers' offense, whereas Pittsburgh's defense can only hope to contain Cincinnati's offense, which has multiple playmakers.

St. Louis Rams -8 v. San Francisco 49ers
TODD GURLEY!!!  Why have more people not been talking about a RGIII/Colin Kaepernick trade.  A change of scenery could do both players and teams a tremendous amount of good.

New York Jets -2 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
A second road favorite, but this is a team that can legitimately contend this year.  We have known about their defense (Wilkerson/Richardson/Revis), but their offense is now relatively explosive.  Chris Ivory is averaging just over 100 yards rushing per game, and Brandon Marshall is 10th in the league in receptions and 9th in receiving yards.  Oakland has been presently surprising as well, so it would not shock me if they won this game outright.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Dallas Cowboys
A third road favorite, but the Cowboys are at 2-4 and lost 4 straight games.  Seattle is not the team it has been, with problems all along the offensive line.  The Cowboys, behind Greg Hardy, did put a lot of pressure on Tom Brady two weeks ago.  But, Dallas still lost that game 30-6.

Green Bay -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos
Another road favorite (God I hate these weeks), but as good as Denver's defense is, Green Bay's offense is just that much better.  Primarily, Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback to fear that Peyton Manning used to be, using the entire field and the entire offensive roster to spread things - and the defense - around.

Carolina Panthers -7 v. Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis seems like it is about ready to implode.  Carolina;s defense is keeping the scores low enough (not giving up just over 18 points a game) so that one big drive, or one big Cam Newton to Greg Olsen connection wins the game.  I have said that before, but that formula has been working.  Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis might be the best pair of ILBs in the league.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals pick 'em at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are trying to keep themselves in the AFC North race, and a victory will pull them within one game of the Bengals.  However, Cincinnati's defense can shut down the Steelers' offense, whereas Pittsburgh's defense can only hope to contain Cincinnati's offense, which has multiple playmakers.

For my big bet, I would always prefer selecting a home team, either receiving points or not giving up too many points.  None of those games give me confidence this week, so I select Cincinnati on the road, not giving up any points.  The other teams I thought about selecting here were Tampa (receiving points, but on the road), Baltimore, (the closest to what I wanted), Arizona (road team giving points), and Green Bay (road team giving points).  So, Cincinnati it is.

Last Week: 5-7-1
Year-to-Date: 56-45-4
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Bet Year to Date: 6-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: ($120)
Winnings (Losses) Year to Date: $1,385

Picks of the Week

What a bounce back week!!!  I must make a clarification on my picks from last week.  I picked the Vikings +8 over the Packers, and wrote about how Bridgewater gave them the spark they needed to keep the game close.  After publication, Bridgewater was declared out of the game, so I changed my pick.  The line moved 1 point, so it was Packers -9.  I did tell 2 friends about it, but did not have a chance to post it.  That game was a win because of the change.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

Houston Texans + 2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
The Texans are good, not great, but Arian Foster had a tremendous game last week against the Cowboys.  The Colts defense is not very solid, so Foster could have a really big game.  The Colts offense can score on anyone, but I suspect the Texans have enough on defense to keep this game close.  Colts win, but Texans cover.

Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals
This is not an overreaction to last week.  I would be making this pick if Cincinnati had won last week.  I just think that a touchdown is too much to give to the Panthers, who although struggling at running back, look to get Jonathan Stewart back this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Cleveland Browns
Pittsburgh only getting points because they are on the road, but that being said I will take them.  Cleveland is a tough out, but one that the Steelers can wins, especially with Joe Haden having a bit of a down year for him.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins could welcome the return of Knowshon Moreno this week, which would be incredibly uplifting for their offense.  Meanwhile it falls to the likes of Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon to slow down the Packers passing attack with their ferocious pass rush.  I don't think they can.

Detroit Lions -1 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings
The loss of Adrian Peterson is just basically too much to overcome on the season.  The may have played well on some adrenaline and pride early, but this team just is not very good without him.

Denver Broncos -10 at New York Jets
I am violating two rules with this pick:  (1) Giving double digit points; and (2) picking a road favorite.  However, the Jets pass defense is horrific and the Broncos have Manning, D. Thomas, J. Thomas, E. Sanders, W. Welker, etc., etc., etc.

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I now just realized that I have picked 4 straight road favorites.   This could be a very bad week for me.

Jacksonville Jaguars +6 at Tennessee Titans
The Jaguars played Pittsburgh tough last week, and I think the team really likes playing behind Blake Bortles.  The Titans quarterback situation is not as settled, with either Jake "Locker Room" being hurt or Charlie Whitehurst being awful.  If the Jaguars can play as well as they did last week, the might just get the win, so I will take the points.

San Diego Chargers -7 at Oakland Raiders
San Diego is another road favorite (I hate this!!!), but they are way more than a touchdown better than the Raiders - at home or on the road.

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons
Except for a couple of poorly timed turnovers, the Bears would be 4-1, but instead they are winless and home and undefeated on the road.  The Falcons are likewise schizophrenic, winless on the road and undefeated at home.  Rookie Kyle Fuller gets to see a lot of Julio Jones, for those interested in one-on-one battles.  I'll take the points in a relatively high-scoring affair.

Washington Whatever Their Name is Going to Be + 3 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
Because every now and then you have to make a pick that just does not make sense.

Dallas Cowboys +7 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Dallas has turned out to be a lot better than people thought they were going to be, especially defensively.  While it is true the are no Seattle on defense, they do make plays and Rolando McClain could be the comeback player of the year.  Seattle is great, and I think they win this game, I just think it will be by a touchdown.

New York Giants +2 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles
Odell Beckham, Jr.'s debut with the Giants last week really opened up a Giants offense that was already playing very well.  He is just another weapon for Eli to utilize.  The Eagles offense plays fast, but they don't seem to be as effective as last year.  Could DeSean Jackson's absence account for some of that?  Riley Cooper seemed more open last year as a fourth option than he does this year as a third.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at St. Louis Rams
While Austin Davis has been somewhat impressive quarterbacking the Rams, and while the 49ers have not been as impressive as they are supposed to be, the 49ers still have overwhelmingly better talent that the Rams do.  I expect this game to be close, but San Francisco wins by a touchdown.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

New England Patriots -3 at Buffalo Bills
I hate taking road favorites, but the Patriots absolutely dismantled the Bengals last week, and although the Bills won with Kyle Orton at the helm, it was a struggle.

Previous Week's Record: 10-5
Year to Date: 39-37
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 4-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $600
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: $265

Picks of the Week

Welcome to our Picks of the Week.  For a quick refresher on the procedures behind my picks (for those that are new - this will be new): Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

I am just going to admit that I have no idea what is going on this season.  Brian Hoyer, Kansas City and Eli's interceptions are just a few of the crazy things this year.

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Yes it was Thursday, but this was my pick.

New Orleans Saints -1 at Chicago Bears
Henry Melton is out for the season, Steven Paea and Charles Tillman are still questionable.  The Bears need all hands on deck to try to slow down the Saints offensive juggernaut.  Could be an enjoyable high scoring game.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots are doing this with offensive smoke-and-mirrors.  The Bengals front 7 is likely to put too much pressure on Tom Brady.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Detroit Lions
This is what I wrote initially, "Do I think the Lions are as good as they looked last week - No.  Do I think they can score a ton of points, at least keep this close and possibly beat the Packers - Yes."  Then I found out that Calvin Johnson was out.  He means that much to Detroit.

Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are a much different team away from home, and I have already picked one road favorite today.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Miami Dolphins
The Ravens offensive line will have its hands full with the Dolphins defensive line, but with time, we have seen that the Dolphins can be beat through the air - especially deep.  A couple of big Torrey Smith and/or Dallas Clark plays makes the Ravens at least cover.

Philadelphia Eagles +2 at New York Giants
So long as they do not turn the ball over the Eagles offense can move the ball against anyone, and the Giants are much less impressive than "anyone".  I'll take the Eagles with the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +11 at St. Louis Rams
The Jaguars have to cover sometime, so it might as well be against the disappointing Rams.  If St. Louis is going to live up to how good some pundits - including me - thought that they were going to be, they need to win big today.  I don't see it happening.

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been impressive this year, but the Titans could easily be undefeated.  Plus, as I stated in my Colts/Seahawks pick - I have already picked one road favorite.

Denver Broncos -7 at Dallas Cowboys
I am not sure that anyone can slow down the Broncos right now.  Seven points does not seem like a high enough spread.

Houston Texans +5 at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are just missing too many weapons.  The Texans gave the Seahawks all they can handle, and Seattle is a much tougher team than San Francisco right now.

San Diego Chargers -4 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
San Diego has played very well this year, even in its losses. Oakland is in flux, with Terrelle Pryor's concussion injury putting some wonder in to how much he will be able to play today. Plus, Oakland is not very good.  It is a good thing that both teams are west coast teams with the time change for kickoff, but if one team is affected by this, we could have a crazy ballgame.  And yes, I know, a third road favorite.

New York Jets +9 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
The Jets have not played that poorly defensively, and they are capable of some big plays.  Although Atlanta is a much better ball club, I could see this being a 6 or 7 point game.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

CarolinaPanthers - 2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
OK, so I am picking another road favorite.  Carolina has played tough in its losses - well, at least the loss to the Seahawks, and since Arizona cannot run the ball, Carolina should be able win handily.

Previous Week's Record: 7-7-1
Year to Date: 27-32-3
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 3-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $80
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: ($425)