Picks of the Week

This has been an incredibly interesting, which makes for horrible gambling odds, and yours truly has been affected, just like everyone else.  Average teams, like say the Buccaneers and Jets, look amazing one week, and horrendous the next.  Why can't average teams, just play average, so that we know what is going on.  Oh well, such is life.  Another .500 week, which I would ordinarily take, but it came along with my first big bet loss, so another week in the red.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons - 2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This was an easy pick - but not an easy win.  Home team on a short week.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against New York Jets (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

The Jets defense, at least their pass defense, is starting to live up to its pre-season reputation, but unfortunately, the offense is struggling, and I don't think Aaron Rodgers (26 straight games under 300 yards passing) is the quarterback to turn this team around.  

Chicago Bears -4 v. Carolina Panthers

Yes, the Panthers seem to be much better with Andy Dalton behind center, but Carolina's bad defense may be just what Caleb Williams needs to get going after a 353 yard passing game (in a loss) followed by last week's win.  Chicago's defense is 5th in third-down percentage, which will be crucial in giving the offense as many possessions as needed.

New England Patriots +1 v. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins offens has been struggling (23rd passing, 24th rushing, 24th overally, last in points), but nowhere near as bad as New England's (31st in points, last in pass defense and overall defense).  But, then again, Miami is on a short week.  Give me the point.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville has been THE disappointment this season.  But, they have to win at some point, right?  The Jaguars have the 10th best rushing defense and are playing a Colts team without Jonathan Taylor - although Trey Sermon has a lot of talent.  Conversely the Colts are 31st in rush defense, and Tank Bigsby has been punishing defensive lines off the bench.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Houston Texans

If I told you the Bills offense was actually struggling statistically, you would not believe me, but, they are 17th in rushing, 20th in passing, and 21st overall.  But somehow, they are second in scoring.  Houston has been great against the pass (4th), but they won't be able to stop Buffalo coming off their beating at the hands of Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I really tried to find a way to select Cincinnati as a home underdog, but I just couldn't.  Baltimore will be on a roll following their thrashing of the Bills to get to 2-2 after starting 0-2.

Washington Commanders -3 v. Cleveland Browns

Washington has been playing too well - especially on offense where they are 6th overall, 3rd in scoring and 3rd in rushing offense) - to not pick them against a bad and boring Cleveland team what supposedly has Amari Cooper on the trade block.

Denver Broncos -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Denver has been playing games very close this year, even when they have looked bad.  Bo Nix looks like he has something, for sure.  The Raiders ... have a big Davante Adams problem ... and Gardner Minshew.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at San Francisco 49ers

Despite being great, San Francisco has not really overwhelmed this season, so 7 points seems like a lot of points to give to a team that looks like it has Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison, Jr. starting to click!

Seattle Seahawks -7 v. New York Giants

Seattle is on a short week, but New York is without Devin Singletary and Malik Nabors.  At least Seattle gets to stay at home.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

If the Jacksonville Jaguars did not exist, this Dallas Cowboys team would be the disappointment of the season.  Ezekial Elliott returned to the backfield and he just proved that the Cowboys were right to jettison him the first time.  Dallas hasn't run on anybody this year - last in the NFL, and Pittsburgh is tough to run on anyway (3rd best in the NFL).

Kansas City Chiefs - 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Given the Saints abilities to play to the level of their opponent, New Orleans seems like the safest bet here.  And when a bet seems too obvious, go the other way.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

I really wanted to pick Seattle here, but giving 7 points is a lot for a team on a short week.  Yes Green Bay lost last week, but Minnesota is legit, and the Rams are not.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  28-32-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($435)

 

Picks of the Week

So, regressed to the mean and gave back a few bucks last week, just like I knew was going to happen.  But, either way, there is going to be some football this weekend, as I am reporting to you live from The Artist Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, Florida - one of the few reasons to ever go to Jacksonville, Florida.  Hell, even the Jaguars play their home games in London.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ten points is A LOT in this league, but had to go for the home team on the short week.  And it would have worked except for the damn facemask on Jordan Phillips.  Oh well - gotta make it up on Sunday!

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Everything about the Steelers says they are a bad team.  Like, really, really bad.  Next-to-last (31st) in offense and just slightly better (30th) in defense.  But somehow they are 4-2 and are getting points at home against a good, but somewhat milquetoast Jaguars team.  Probably a dumb pick, but I keep coming back to Pittsburgh.

New York Giants +3 v. New York Jets

Both home teams, so that doesn't matter.  This could be a game in which both teams struggle to score.  For that reason, and that reason alone I am taking the points.  

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Houston is an average team that is surprisingly entertaining, and Carolina is neither of those things.  I  know it is six games in, but C.J. Stroud has taken an early, but sizable lead in the "Who is the best rookie QB" race.  Whomever wants Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye), get your offers ready for the Bears, as Chicago has Carolina's first round pick.

New England Patriots +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

After seeing what the Patriots defense did to the Bills last week, I am taking this spread.  I expect Miami to win, but maybe Bailey Zappe in relief of Mac Jones scoring a backdoor cover to lose 30-21?

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Desmond Ridder is sufficiently competent, and could we be seeing Derrick Henry's last game as a Titan? (Perhaps to the Bills, or Browns?)

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Dallas Cowboys

I honestly don't feel good about this pick, or if I picked Dallas, either.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Washington Commanders

Road intra-divisional favorites are always tough to pick, but after the way the Eagles made the Dolphins look last week, it is hard to bet against them, even giving a touchdown.  Plus, Washington is 26th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia has the toughest rush defense, giving up just under 63 yards per game. Then, add to that the increasing winds around potential trades of Montez Sweat and/or Chase Young, and this could get ugly depending upon how Washington responds.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes interesting, mostly nondescript offense led by Derek Carr versus a sometimes intriguing, mostly milquetoast offense led by Gardner Minshew.  Taking New Orleans only because of their tough defense (3rd overall, 4th passing, 6th scoring).

Cleveland Browns +4 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game could actually go either way, especially since the Browns are led by future-XFL Hall-of-Famer P.J. Walker.  But that Cleveland defense is just too banging.  Kareem Hunt is a legitimate starter in this league, but could Cleveland be in the Derrick Henry sweepstakes?

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Denver Broncos

If this game was last week, I would have selected Denver, since Kansas City had played pretty close games except for their blowout win against Chicago.  But, their victory over the Chargers may have convinced me that they are truly starting to click.  What happens when Mecole Hardman gets settled in.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Coming off consecutive losses to the Browns and Vikings, I am definitely taking the points in this game with San Francisco having played Monday night.  

Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens win this game, but I just cannot give up double digits at home.  Ravens win 23-14.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have to be the best 2-4 team ever.  Seriously.  Justin Herbert has a 97.1 rating.  They are 5th in total offense, but, oh yeah, 31st in total defense and 32nd in passing defense.  That probably won't matter against a Bears team that is 28th in scoring, but it might matter enough for Chicago to cover.

Detroit Lions -8 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a mess.  They just gave up 30 to the Bears, and barely beat the Patriots and Packers in the two weeks before that.  Meanwhile the Lions will be angry coming off last week's shellacking at the hands of the Ravens.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

This SHOULD happen.  Easiest picks on the board often surprise, thought, and that is what I don't like, except Kirk Cousins is playing in the noon slot!

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-43-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,275

Picks of the Week

 

Last week was horrible.  Just atrocious.  The kind of week that makes it virtually impossible to have a winning season no matter how many winning weeks I put together.  The type of week that would make a lessser man give up making picks forever, or at least for the rest of the year.  I am not that lesser of a man, especially after I eat Thanksgiving meal where I will literally be more of a man.  So, Happy Thanksgiving to all.

I am making my picks for the entire weekend, but I reserve the right to change my mind should a key injury occur before then, or if a key player doesn't play and that player factored into my decision.  But, for the most part, I am going to just let it roll.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions +3 v. Chicago Bears

I wish this pick was as simple as selecting the home team on a short week, but there is much, much more involved.  Matt Nagy has lost the team, and the team has made that clear to management.  Then, apparently on Tuesday, ownership representatives met with Nagy to inform him that he was fired after today's game no matter what.  Then, Charles McCaskey holds a presser to say he specifically told Nagy that he would not be fired.  So, who to belive?  What to believe?  What I believe is that this team does not want to play for Nagy, and the backslide by ownership probably hurts more than helps.  And, Detroit has played tough for the most part.  #FireMattNagy

Dallas Cowboys -7 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders have lost 3 games in a row coming out of their bye week.  Included in that stretch is a loss to the Giants, and giving up 41 and 32 in the last 2 games.  Dallas averages just under 30 per game.  They should win handily, even without Amari Cooper.  Oh yeah, and home team on a short week.

New Orleans Saints +6 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

So this is the one game out of the three that the automatic home team on a short week is not an obvious pick.  But, Buffalo has lost 2 out of 3, salvaging a blowout of the Jets between a miserable 9-6 loss to Jacksonville and last week's annihilation at the hands of the Colts.  The Saints have the 10th best defense in terms of yards and points, which should be enough to keep this game close.  Unless, of course, the Bills team that we though existed shows up.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 v. Atlanta Falcons

This might be the worst game on the slate, so give me the points.  Jacksonville has the 17th ranked rush offense and rush defense, and those are the two highest ranked units in this game.  Ugh!

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I'll admit that I don't like this spread.  I feel like it should be more around the 4 range, but, New England is hitting its stride and is now the 6th leading scorer in the NFL, and the best scoring defense in the NFL.  And Tennessee's problems extend whell beyond just missing Derrick Henry.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at New York Giants

Competing algorithms in this one:  never give up points on the road in the division, and don't pick teams on a short week.  But the Giants, who had been playing well, broke themselves by going for it on the rushed 4th and 1 on Monday night (at least if you want to go for it there, call timeout instead of rushing the play).  It also broke Jason Garrett as he was fired.  Philly is on a two game winning streak putting up 30 against Denver and 40 against New Orleans.

Cincinnati Bengals -4 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

This is a difficult game to pick because Cincinnati might be the most Jeckyll and Hyde team in the NFL.  So, admittedly, this pick is based a lot on feel.  And that feeling is that Pittsburgh is not the same team with Ben Roethlisberger, in a bad way.

Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Is Jonathan Taylor the MVP so far this year?  Yes.  Will Tom Brady win the award over Taylor?  Also yes.  The Colts have scored over 40 in two of the last three games, and have won 3 in a row.  Tampa needed a boneheaded decision and play on 4th down by the Giants on Monday night to help the cruise to an easy victory from what was a close game.  Oh yeah, and Tampa played Monday night.

Miami Dolphins +2 v. Carolina Panthers

Another difficult decision.  My rationale is taking points at home in what should be a short game, but really is based upon the fact that this team looks way better with Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa at the helm.  And yes, that is his full name.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Should be a tough, close game so I will take the points.  Denver has the 3rd best scoring defense in the NFL, and 9th in total defense.  And, in a super-surprise stat of the day, Teddy Bridgewater has a higher quarterback rating than Justin Herbert (98.8 to 98.4 - negligible to be fair) (and a better nickname, "Teddy Two Gloves").

San Francisco 49ers -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Both Minnesota and San Francisco have won two in a row to bring themselves into the playoff discussion.  Kirk Cousins is probably playing the best football of his life (106.3 rating with only 2 interceptions and 21 TDs).  But, San Francisco has the 6th best defense - 3rd against the pass), and Minnesota's team is grappling with the Everson Griffen situation.

Green Bay Packers +1 v. Los Angeles Rams

So, the Packers are 9-2 against the spread this year, but Covid-toe Aaron Rodgers is 0-1 against the spread, meaning this pick is probably the wrong way to go.  But, whenever Rodgers has something to prove, he is very dangerous - with apologies to Baker Mayfield.

Cleveland Browns +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

And speaking of Baker Mayfield ... Tyler Huntley - that is all.

Washington Football Team -1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

No team has confounded me more in the past few years than the WFT.  If Taylor Heinicke can keep down the turnovers, they could win on Monday night.

Big Bet

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

This might be the worst game on the slate if not for the Jacksonville-Atlanta matchup.  So, not only did Houston ruin everyone's weeks last week by beating the Titans (and knocking Adrian Peterson off the Titans roster, and perhaps out of the league forever), but they are also 2-1 in games in which Tyrod Taylor starts and finishes this year.  Taylor actually can play a little.

In this weird year, yes, I am taking the Texans a a big bet.

Bye Week:  Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs

Last Week's Record:  5-10

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  84-81

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses):  ($1,065)