Picks of the Week

So it only took until Week 2 for me to have my first horrendous week.  Thank goodness for the Big Bet!  But, I am not alone, as tons of people worldwide suffered last week.  If you are in a Survivor Pool, odds are, you are out.  Something like 25% of all people in Survivor Pools hosted by known and available sites (like ESPN, CBS, etc.) remain after two weeks.  That is ridiculous, and that is just picking winners, not even accounting for the spread.  Let's see if we can have a bounce back week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +6 1/2 at New York Jets

I had no allusions that the Patriots would win this game, but the Jets had looked underwhelming, at best, in the first two weeks, to the point where I was wondering if they might just be overrated.  They handled their business.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

They have to start playing offense at some point, right?  And, if there was any time to try to limit the pressure on Caleb Williams and run the ball, it would be this week against the team last in the NFL in rushing defense, giving up 237 yards per game so far, and, with star defensive tackle DeForest Buckner out for the game.  Caleb Williams also throws his first touchdown pass today, and the Bears defense remains at a high level.  Anthony Richardson can make big plays with his arm and legs, but he is also erratic with his arm, and this Bears secondary is no joke.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 v. Denver Broncos

I know the Broncos are rocking with a rookie quarterback and they will experience growing pains, but they have no identity on offense.  Their defense has been pretty stout to start the season, but one of those games was against the Steelers.  Baker Mayfield is playing at a high, high level, and the Bucs will score against Denver.

Houston Texans -2 at Minnesota Vikings

This is an incredibly difficult line, as both teams are playing well to start the season.  Sam Darnold is turning out better than almost everyone thought so far, but Houston's defense is imporved to an elite level like its offense.  I don't like giving up points on the road, but I will here.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

This game is also difficult to pick, but for much different reasons, primarily that Justin Herbert is a game-time decision, and the report from Adam Shefter just now is that we still don't know if he will play, and won't know until the Chargers take the field.  So, I just have to take a deep breath, block out all of the noise, and realize that the betting rules say to take the east coast home team against a Pacific time zone team in the 1:00 game slot anyway, so I am .

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

My initial thought was to take the points and the Eagles, given that the Eagles must be so angry at how their Monday Night game against the Falcons ended.  Then I realized that ... the Eagles played Monday night!!!  This is a short week.  This is a great time to pick the resurrected career of Derek Carr!

Green Bay Packers +3 at Tennessee Titans

Green Bay bounced back from their Week 1 loss to the Eagles with a Week 2 win against the Colts, and I am not sure what either of those mean.  What I am sure of is that Tennessee lost to both the Bears and the Jets, and they are giving points today.  Green Bay controls the clock, and the game, and probably wins outright.

Cleveland Browns -6 1/2 v. New York Giants

Both offenses are BAD!  New York's defense is BAD!  Cleveland's defense is meh.  I feel like this should be a lower line, but I am going to give the points anyway, because I just have a feeling that this Giants team is going backwards, fast.

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Miami Dolphins2

The Dolphins defense is legitmiate, and defense always travels.  The problem is that an offense led by Skylar Thompson probably doesn't - even with weapons like Devon Achane and Tyreek Hill.  Seattle is also out Kenneth Walker, but relying on Geno Smith is much easier to do than to rely on Skylar Thompson.

Las Vegas Raiders -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Is it possible that the move from Bryce Young to the experienced Andy Dalton does allow the Panthers' offense to coalesce a bit around its established players and finally get Diontae Johnson involved, of course.  Am I betting that this time is not a total trainwreck?  No, I am not.

Baltimore Ravens -1 at Dallas Cowboys

A team as talented as this Ravens squad cannot start the season 0-3 right?  RIGHT?

Los Angeles Rams +6 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

I am getting points for a home team in an intradivisional rivalry game where the visiting team is missing its starting running back, starting wide receiver, and starting tight end, all of whom are in the tops at their position in the league.  I still think that with Jordan Mason, the 49ers can win this game, but 6 1/2 points seems a bit much.

Detroit Lions -3 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played fantastic against the Rams last week, and host Detroit who lost a game the team thinks it should have won last week against the Buccaneers.  Will that make Detroit more motivated?  Of course - I mean it has Dan Campbell.  That extra fire in the game is what compels this road win.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It might be soul-searching time for the Jaguars vis-a-vis a decision about what to do with this squad going forward.  Do they have talent?  Absolutely.  Is some of that talent as good as they are being paid?  Absolutely not.  And the team has put together a mish-mash of offensive talent that doesn't necessarily jell together.  But, you know what team knows exactly who they are?  The Buffalo Bills.

Washington Commanders +7 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati should win this game, and maybe even handily.  But, there are a lot of things that look good for Washington going forward ... Jayden Daniels looks like he belongs, he is due for his first passing touchdown, and McLaurin needs to break open for the rookie to have a true #1 target.  All of these happen late in the fourth quarter for a back-door cover!

Big Bet:

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Atlanta Falcons

Closing out the Sunday games with two road favorites is not ideal, but does anyone think that the Falcons can defeat the Eagles and the Chiefs in back-to-back weeks?  I certainly don't.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week, so that makes me feel more confident, even with Kansas City searching for a running back to solidify its running game.

I generally prefer home teams for my Big Bet, and I also prefer them receiving points, or it being a close point spread, but this bet is too good to pass up.  The Kansas City offense revolves around Patrick Mahomes, so the Isaiah Pacheco injury isn't going to hurt too much.  Plus, the Falcons are on a short week.  I feel confident that the Chiefs can outgun Atlanta, even with their injuries.

Record

Last Week's Record:  5-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  13-17-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($450)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($270)