Picks of the Week

 

Finally, the type of week I have been looking for this week.  Absolutely incredible.  Hopefully that doesn't mean I fall back-down-to-earth, but so far teh London week games have been good to me.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Seattle Seahawks + 4 v. San Francisco 49ers

Home team, short week didn't work.

Chicago Bears -1 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Hopefully like last week the favorite prevails.  The Bears defense is running smoothly - 3rd in third-down percentage, fifthe in scoring, 6th in passing and 8th overall.  Is this the week Doug Pederson gets fired a al Robert Saleh?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

I hate taking a road intra-divsional favorite, but we just do not know what we will be getting from Spencer Rattler making his first start.  Only reason this spread is like this.  I do have the additional incentive of picking against the team playing on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Green Bay is the third-best rushing team in the NFL, whereas Arizona is 28th in stopping the run.

Tennessee Titans -2 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Tennessee is coming off a bye and the Colts are battered.  If Will Levis can just keep from committing that one stupid turnover per game ... big If.

Philadelphia Eagles -9 v. Cleveland Browns

Is it time for the Browns to put Wyatt Teller, Myles Garrett and Amari Cooper on the trading block?  A.J. Brown and Lane Johnson return for the Eagles.

Houston Texans -6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Drake Maye is getting his first start for a Patriots team that has sputtered offensively (last in passing and 31st in scoring and 31st overall).  Plus, Rhamondre Stevenson is out from the 8th ranked rushing offense.  Houston meanwhile has the 6th best offense and 4th best defense.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Washington Commanders

I really wanted to take Washington here, as I think they could give the Ravens a game.  However, Washington's offensive strength (2nd in rushing), is also Baltimore's defensive strength (1st in the NFL), and Baltimore's #1 ranked total and rushing offense could actually win the time-of-possession battle that has worked so well for Washington this year.

Denver Broncos +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Both teams offenses rank very low, and both teams defenses rank pretty high, so I will take the points in an intradivisional battle.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 at Las Vegas Raiders

It is possible that the Raiders get a jolt from Aiden O'Connell taking the helm, but I don't think so.  I just believe this Raiders team is in disarray.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Carolina Panthers

Ugh, another road intradivisional favorite, but the Panthers are not good; 26th in offense and 28th in defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Is it possible that the Cowboys last-minute win against the Steelers turns their season around?  Sure, but I don't believe it.  Too many injuries on the defensive line and no rushing game (31st in the NFL).

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 at New York Jets

So Robert Saleh was going to demote Nathaniel Hackett.  Aaron Rodgers got wind of it and complained to the owner, who fired Robert Saleh and slapped the interim head coach tag on Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who then pulled play-calling duties from Nathaniel Hackett.  Huh?

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I was impressed by Cincinnati's performance against the Ravens last week.  And the Giants, who have actually been playing solid - not great - as of late, will be without their leading rusher Devin Singletary and their leading receiver Malik Nabors.

Very few solid home teams giving up very little points, so I will take Denver getting them.  My other options were Green Bay -5 1/2, Philadelphia -9, and Denver +3, but this looks the most promising.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  37-36-5

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 4-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $610

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $175