Picks of the Week - NFL - Week 13

 

Hey, I actually won my Big Bet last week!!!  But, still underwater.  I hate this year.  A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers +3 at Detroit Lions

Both squads are in a 3-way battle for conference supremacy (along with the Chicago Bears).  I am going to go with the Packers defense (3rd in Total Defense/4th in Scoring Defense/5th in Pass Defense/6th in Rush Defense) especially since they are getting points.  I cannot pick all 3 home teams on a short week, right?

Dallas Cowboys +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Fresh off a really ugly win over the Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys are getting points on a short week at home.  Kansas City had a great comeback over the Indianapolis Colts but are still in a life-or-death game every week in order to make the playoffs.  That is going to catch up to them eventually, and this number 3 offense is really clicking at this moment.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Once gain home team/short week.  The Bengals should get a boost from the return of Joe Burrow, but their one-demensionality on offense (30th in rushing), could be detrimental against a rapidly-improving Baltimore Ravens defense that although 22nd in the NFL, that is serious improvement over the last few weeks from when they were ranked dead last.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 v. Chicago Bears

The Bears have pulled a lot of rabbits out of their collective hats, and on paper actually look a bit better than Philadelphia, but there is no question the Eagles are a better team.  And, they are at home on Friday, I'll give the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars -6 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I know I should pick Tennessee as a home intra-divisional dog, but they just don't warrant the pick  right now, not at under a touchdown.  Next-to-last in offense and 26th in defense, facing a Jacksonville team that suddenly finds itself only 1 game behind the division-leading Colts in the AFC South.

 

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at New York Jets

The J-E-T-S- Jets-Jets-Jets are awful.  Just awful.  

Los Angeles Rams -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Going to violate a gambling law no matter which way I pick, as Carolina is on a short week, but LA is traveling east and playing in the 1:00 window.  So, going against the double-digit favorite would be the next step, but I can't do that, as the Rams might be the best team in football, and the 49ers may have broken Carolina's spirit on Monday night by winning a game Carolina had every right to win.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. New Orleans Saints

Miami on a two-game winning streak; let's make it 3, and they cover.  Saints star Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and that could be a tremendous loss for a rookie quarterback.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

It is looking like the Buccaneers are getting Bucky Irving back; not so much for Trey Benson and Arizona.  Although the Cardinals have looked better with Jacoby Brissett at the helm.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Houston Texans +4 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

As great as Cleveland's defense is, they are not even close to the level of the Houston Texans.  The number 1 defense versus the number 2 offense.  The big difference is that Houston's offense is mediocre, whereas Indianapolis' defense gives up a lot of yards (24th).  This game is close, maybe a field goal either way.

Minnesota Vikings +11 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks absolutely win this game, as J.J. McCarthy has ... let's call it struggled.  But 11 1/2 is a lot of points.  A lot.  So, I'll take them.

Buffalo Bills -3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Both teams in the playoff hunt, but the Bills have lost 2 out of 3 and 3 out of 6.  The Steelers have just looked - mediocre.  So long as Josh Allen doesn't turn the ball over, Bills win by 10.  But that is a big IF ...

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Only 8 1/2?  Really?  And the Raiders might be without Ashton Jeanty.

Denver Broncos -6 at Washington Commanders

Denver should be fresher coming off of a bye.  And, playing against the 31st ranked defense in Total Defense that is also 29th against the pass (and 28th overall) might just be what Bo Nix needs to unlock Courtland Sutton, Evan Engram, Tony Franklin and the rest of the passing game.

New York Giants +7 1/2 at New England Patriots

The Patriots are better and will win, for sure.  But the Giants have played 4 straight relatively close games, and Jameis Winston is a national treasure.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Cleveland's defense is legitimate (3rd overall), and Shadeur Sanders does bring some swagger to the offense that the fourteen other starters didn't have this season.  Plus, San Francisco is playing in the Eastern Time Zone in the 1:00 window, AND on a short week.  Not to mention that they were basically handled by Carolina's defense, which isn't even close to as strong as Myles Garrett on his own.

Getting points at home, with all of the surrounding situation for the 49ers as mentioned above.  I am betting on defense. 

Last Week Record: 6-7-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 84-93-1

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 3-9

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($20)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,865) 

Picks of the Week

 

So, back in the red.  Not out of the hole yet, but a much better week.  And, I did my picks ahead of time for last week, so will do that again, making my picks for all of the games ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown!!!  Happy Thanksgiving to all, and may we all be thankful for another winning week!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions -9 1/2

I do not think the Bears will beat Detroit - they won't - but they have played both divisional rivals close in the last two weeks, covering both spreads as they lost to the Packers by 1 and the Vikings by 3.  Maybe a 28-20 type of loss here tomorrow?  And yes, I know, short week and all, but there are three Thursday games,, plus one Friday, so have to try one road team.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Miami has won 3 in a row, after a close loss to Buffalo, so they are cruising with Tua back behind center.  Jordan Love has an 18:11 TD:INT ratio, and will likely throw one tomorrow.

Kansas City Chiefs -13 v. Las Vegas Raiders

So the Chiefs have been in a lot of close games, and there is no way they should cover this spread given their performances this year.  But, they are home on a short week, Isaiah Pacheco migh be back to give the running game a boost, and the Raiders lost Gardner Minshew for the season, meaning Desmond Ridder picks up the start, although even they cannot decide if it's Ridder or Aiden O'Connell.

Houston Texans -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Houston needs a win after losing to the Titans, despite forcing 19,000 turnovers, just like they lost to the Lions 3 weeks ago, after making 5 interceptions.  This defense is humming, and the Jaguars offense doesn't need that, although it is rumored that Trevor Lawrence is practicing, and Brian Thomas might be back.  Won't matter.

Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers face the double-whammy of playing in the east coast in the 1:00 time slot AND having played Monday night, so this is a short week.  The loss of J.K. Dobbins - if he is indeed out with a knee strain, could also seriously hurt.  Give me the noon nightmare.

Tennessee Titans +5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Tennessee snuck up with a win last week against Houston, and Will Levis has been playing somewhat well.  The Commanders are on a three-game losing streak.  I do not expect that streak to continue, as they should still pull this out, but Tennessee's 1st overall defense and 1st in passing defense could really challenge Washington, and keep this game close.

Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona keeps looking on the verge to really take off, but they haven't.  Minnesota is 9th in scoring and 5th in scoring defense.  That is a really good combination, especially since their #1 ranked rush defense could tymie Arizona's 6th ranked rushing offense.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at New England Patriots

Since Anthony Richardson is so up-and-down, and the Colts beat the Jets two weeks ago, and lost to Detroit last week (no harm there), perhaps Richardson is up this week.  That is really my unscientific and unmathematical analysis.  But, evern though Indianapolis is 1-4 in their last 5, those losses have been to the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans.  All playoff teams.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals

I don't know how Pittsburgh is doing it either, honestly, but their 7th overall defense (4th in rush and scoring) is the best place to start.  The Bengals #1 passing offense will look to take advantage of the Steelers relative weekness against the pass (17th).  Me, I'll just take the points in almost any AFC North matchup.

Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Jets

I hate making this pick since the game is in the 1:00 time slot in New Jersey, but I believe Geno Smith will find a way to outshine Aaron Rodgers, who may have already caused the team to turn against him.

Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Of all the teams way back in the standings, I expect the Dolphins to make the most interesting playoff run, but that is only because the Rams, at 5-6, are only 1 game off the lead of the NFC West.  Being this close with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for a large swath of the beginning of the season, is dangerous for the reast of the NFC West.  They should handle New Orleans, who is coming off a bye week that may have stopped their momentum from a two-game win streak.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Bryce Young has definitely improved since his return from the bench, but Baker Mayfield looks posed to capitalize on a healthy Mike Evans in his return from injury with one full game under his belt.

Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Baltimore Ravens

I am soooo looking forward to this game.  I am taking Philadelphia because among great teams I would prefer to take the points, but also because Baltimore played on Monday, making this a short week for them.  Both teams only real weakness (Baltimore 31st pass defense/Philadelphia 25th pass offense) will compete against each other, as will their strengths (Baltimore's number 1 total offense/Philadelphia's number 2 total defense; Philadelphia's number 1 rush offense/Baltimores #2 rush defense).  Like I wrote, I am looking forward to this game. 

Buffalo Bills -7 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco is just too banged up right now to really compete.  Buffalo is only one-game behind Kansas City in the fight for home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Denver Broncos -5 1/2 v. Clevleand Browns

Two teams I can never figure out, but in this scenario I know Denver is actually good, and Cleveland is not.  If I am going to be surprised, so be it.  Give me the good team.

Big Bet:

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants

Tommy DeVito is not the answer.  What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn?  I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.

This is not me picking Cooper Rush, but rather the fact that Dallas' defense has the chance to just thoroughly humiliate a quarterback that likely should not even be in the NFL.  I know it is a Thanksgiving Thursday game, and short week games are difficult to prognosticate, but I see nothing more obvious than this game this week.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  85-87-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($845)

Picks of the Week

Back on the winning track!  Let's turn this into a streak.  I am in an airport right now leaving in about an hour so no real analysis.  Still gotta get the picks in, though!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -91/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Weird "short week" Thursday game in which both teams have their standard week from playing last Thanksgiving.  I didn't like this pick when it occurred, but I wouldn't have liked it if I picked Seattle either.

Houston Texans -3 v. Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 at New England Patriots

I hate picking a Pacific Time Zone team playing in the 1:00 slot, but the Patriots are awful.  I hate this bet.

Detroit Lions -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Already two road favorites.  This week is not going to be good.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Can Pittsburgh score 6 1/2 points?

Atlanta Falcons -2 at New York Jets

Arthur Smith apparently discovered Bijan Robinson.

Indianapolis Colts -1 at Tennessee Titans

Colts to the playoffs?

Miami Dolphins -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

If I am going to go down the road favorites rabbit hole, let's go down all the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Cleveland Browns

We still don't know who will be playing quarterback for Cleveland.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

It has become trendy to pick Philly because how could they be an underdog at home.  I am going against the trend.

Green Bay Packers +6 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City hasn't been playing particularly well; Green Bay has.

Cincinnati Bengals +9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It is Jake Browning, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points.

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

I like taking home teams, so Green Bay was a consideration here, but I don't want big money against Patrick Mahomes.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  98-73-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,995