So, back in the red. Not out of the hole yet, but a much better week. And, I did my picks ahead of time for last week, so will do that again, making my picks for all of the games ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving showdown!!! Happy Thanksgiving to all, and may we all be thankful for another winning week!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Chicago Bears +9 1/2 at Detroit Lions -9 1/2
I do not think the Bears will beat Detroit - they won't - but they have played both divisional rivals close in the last two weeks, covering both spreads as they lost to the Packers by 1 and the Vikings by 3. Maybe a 28-20 type of loss here tomorrow? And yes, I know, short week and all, but there are three Thursday games,, plus one Friday, so have to try one road team.
Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants
Tommy DeVito is not the answer. What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn? I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.
Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Miami has won 3 in a row, after a close loss to Buffalo, so they are cruising with Tua back behind center. Jordan Love has an 18:11 TD:INT ratio, and will likely throw one tomorrow.
Kansas City Chiefs -13 v. Las Vegas Raiders
So the Chiefs have been in a lot of close games, and there is no way they should cover this spread given their performances this year. But, they are home on a short week, Isaiah Pacheco migh be back to give the running game a boost, and the Raiders lost Gardner Minshew for the season, meaning Desmond Ridder picks up the start, although even they cannot decide if it's Ridder or Aiden O'Connell.
Houston Texans -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston needs a win after losing to the Titans, despite forcing 19,000 turnovers, just like they lost to the Lions 3 weeks ago, after making 5 interceptions. This defense is humming, and the Jaguars offense doesn't need that, although it is rumored that Trevor Lawrence is practicing, and Brian Thomas might be back. Won't matter.
Atlanta Falcons + 1 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers face the double-whammy of playing in the east coast in the 1:00 time slot AND having played Monday night, so this is a short week. The loss of J.K. Dobbins - if he is indeed out with a knee strain, could also seriously hurt. Give me the noon nightmare.
Tennessee Titans +5 1/2 at Washington Commanders
Tennessee snuck up with a win last week against Houston, and Will Levis has been playing somewhat well. The Commanders are on a three-game losing streak. I do not expect that streak to continue, as they should still pull this out, but Tennessee's 1st overall defense and 1st in passing defense could really challenge Washington, and keep this game close.
Minnesota Vikings -3 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals
Arizona keeps looking on the verge to really take off, but they haven't. Minnesota is 9th in scoring and 5th in scoring defense. That is a really good combination, especially since their #1 ranked rush defense could tymie Arizona's 6th ranked rushing offense.
Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at New England Patriots
Since Anthony Richardson is so up-and-down, and the Colts beat the Jets two weeks ago, and lost to Detroit last week (no harm there), perhaps Richardson is up this week. That is really my unscientific and unmathematical analysis. But, evern though Indianapolis is 1-4 in their last 5, those losses have been to the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans. All playoff teams.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Cincinnati Bengals
I don't know how Pittsburgh is doing it either, honestly, but their 7th overall defense (4th in rush and scoring) is the best place to start. The Bengals #1 passing offense will look to take advantage of the Steelers relative weekness against the pass (17th). Me, I'll just take the points in almost any AFC North matchup.
Seattle Seahawks -2 at New York Jets
I hate making this pick since the game is in the 1:00 time slot in New Jersey, but I believe Geno Smith will find a way to outshine Aaron Rodgers, who may have already caused the team to turn against him.
Los Angeles Rams -2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
Of all the teams way back in the standings, I expect the Dolphins to make the most interesting playoff run, but that is only because the Rams, at 5-6, are only 1 game off the lead of the NFC West. Being this close with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua out for a large swath of the beginning of the season, is dangerous for the reast of the NFC West. They should handle New Orleans, who is coming off a bye week that may have stopped their momentum from a two-game win streak.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Bryce Young has definitely improved since his return from the bench, but Baker Mayfield looks posed to capitalize on a healthy Mike Evans in his return from injury with one full game under his belt.
Philadelphia Eagles +3 at Baltimore Ravens
I am soooo looking forward to this game. I am taking Philadelphia because among great teams I would prefer to take the points, but also because Baltimore played on Monday, making this a short week for them. Both teams only real weakness (Baltimore 31st pass defense/Philadelphia 25th pass offense) will compete against each other, as will their strengths (Baltimore's number 1 total offense/Philadelphia's number 2 total defense; Philadelphia's number 1 rush offense/Baltimores #2 rush defense). Like I wrote, I am looking forward to this game.
Buffalo Bills -7 v. San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is just too banged up right now to really compete. Buffalo is only one-game behind Kansas City in the fight for home-field advantage in the playoffs.
Denver Broncos -5 1/2 v. Clevleand Browns
Two teams I can never figure out, but in this scenario I know Denver is actually good, and Cleveland is not. If I am going to be surprised, so be it. Give me the good team.
Big Bet:
Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. New York Giants
Tommy DeVito is not the answer. What on earth does Drew Lock have to do to get some burn? I expect Micah Parsons and company to feast this holiday.
This is not me picking Cooper Rush, but rather the fact that Dallas' defense has the chance to just thoroughly humiliate a quarterback that likely should not even be in the NFL. I know it is a Thanksgiving Thursday game, and short week games are difficult to prognosticate, but I see nothing more obvious than this game this week.
Record
Last Week's Record: 8-5
Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 85-87-7
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $400
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($845)
