Winning record but lost money, thanks to the fact I forgot George Pickens wasn't playing. Won't make that mistake today. Thursday pick looked great for the first half, then the Chargers came to life. Oh well. Two Saturday games - let's get after it.
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Denver +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers
Like I typed earlier, first half looked great.
Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, the away team on a short week. Houston's defense is on a heater - moving up to 6th in total defense and 9th in scoring defense, and Kansas City, even though they win, don't blow anyone out.
Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
The aforementioned George Pickens loss makes Pittsburgh's offense really stagnant.
Detroit Lions -6 1/2 at Chicago Bears
The Bears snuck up on Detroit on Thanksgiving. They will not do that this week.
Cincinnati Bengals -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Dorian Thompon-Robinson? And Cincinnati has the 5th highest scoring offense in the NFL, going against the 26th ranked scoring defense.
Atlanta Falcons -9 v. New York Giants
I ordinarily hate picking a team starting a QB for his first ever NFL start, but Penix might just be what Atlanta needs after Kirk Cousins squandered a 6-3 start. Plus, it's the Drew Lock-led New York GIants, and his 54.6 rating.
Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
Will Levis is officially looking over his shoulder; and a nervous Will Levis is a bad Will Levis.
Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals
Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week. They have enough of a team to keep this close.
Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders
Road favorites in an intradivisional matchup are difficult picks, but not when that team is among the best in the NFL right now. Philadelphia are 4th in total offense (1st in rushing) and 1st in total defense 1st in passing and scoring).
Los Angeles Rams -3 at New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers' destruction of a New York institution is almost complete.
Minnesota Vikings -3 at Seattle Seahawks
I might as well just keep picking road favorites! How can that hurt?
New England Patriots +14 at Buffalo Bills
Only because the spread is two touchdowns. Likely would have taken Buffalo if it was 10, maybe even 11.
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at Las Vegas Raiders
Long live the Mac Jones Era!!!
San Francisco 49ers -1 at Miami Dolphins
Looks like the Dolphins will be without Jaylen Waddle AND Tyreek Hill. I reserve the right to change this before game time if Hill plays.
Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is playing like not only will they deserve to be in the playoffs, but they could make some noise. But, Dallas has been playing a lot better recently, and if not for a weird blocked punt, muff for a Cincinnati first down, could be on a four-game winning streak.
New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Look, do I think that New Orleans will win? No. Do I think New Orleans will keep this close? Also no. But 14 1/2 is a lot of points to give up in an NFL game.
Big Bet:
Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals
Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week. They have enough of a team to keep this close.
Because it seems so crazy, I will take Carolina. For most of my other choices they were either giving points, or on the road (or both?!), so I will take the points in a home game and hope for the best.
Record
Last Week's Record: 9-7
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 109-106-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($715)
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