Picks of the Week - NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

 

OK - the worst NFL season of my picking career is finished, and we are now on to the Wildcard Round!!!  Hooray for that, at least.  Since the playoffs offer many less games to choose, I will be selecting each game Against the Spread, with the Money Line, and the Over/Under.  Also, I might have two Big Bets.  Let's see how that goes!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +10 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

In no way, shape or form do I think that Carolina deserves to be in the playoffs, nor do I think they have a chance to win this game.  But - and it is a big BUT - the NFL placed this game in the Saturday afternoon window, which means the Pacific Time Zone team has to travel to the Eastern Time Zone to play a game on a short week.  This spells gambling trouble, and since it seems too easy to just pick the Rams, I have to take double-digit points.

Los Angeles Rams -600 Moneyline (Bet $600 to win $100) at Carolina Panther

The Rams have the league's highest-scoring offense and the second-best Total Offense.  Carolina is going to have trouble getting Los Angeles' offense off the field, ranking 31st in defensive first-down percentage.  Rams win, but it will be way closer than it should be.

Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers UNDER 46 1/2

The ordinarily high-flying Rams offense is going to be slow to takeoff, and Carolina is going to try to keep this game on the ground to keep possessions low.

Chicago Bears +1 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Both of the first two games between these two long-time rivals came down to the final play (each with the ball in Caleb Williams' hand).  There is no reason to think that this one will be any different.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional rivalry is always a good play.   And, it is a short week.

Green Bay Packers -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Chicago Bears

But, the above notwithstanding, the Packers had the lead in both previous games, and would have won the second if not for the fact Chicago recovered an onside kick.  Smart play here is Green Bay, and given that Chicago money line is anywhere from even to -108, and this bet is a no-brainer.  That being said, I hope I lose this one.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears OVER 45 1/2

I feel like both of these teams could score 21 in their sleep against each other, so all I need is basically one additional score.  So I'll take the over.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have been playing great, but even with what seems like a subpar season performance-wise, the Bills still have Josh Allen and the 3rd-best total offense (and 4th-highest scoring offense) in the NFL.  Jacksonville's rush defense is stout (best in the NFL), but the passing defense is 21st.

 

Buffalo Bills -112 Moneyline (Bet $112 to win $100) at Jacksonville Jaguars

If I am expecting the Bills to win (which is what +1 basically means), then I have to take their money line.  It is weird that the Bills are favored in MoneyLine Bets and some even have them as favorite against the spread - this is a bizarre game to prognosticate.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco 49ers +200 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $200) at Philadelphia Eagles

A healthy, healthy dose of Christian McCaffrey, a wide-array of offensive talent, and a favorable money line all make this to be a good bet.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles OVER 44 1/2

A high-flying offense and a couple of tush pushes makes this the play.

Los Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at New England Patriots

Another Pacific Time Zone team playing in the Eastern Time Zone, but this is at night!  These are two very evenly matched teams with New England a little better on offense (4th versus 10th) and the Chargers a little better on defense (2nd versus 8th).   Given this, I will take the points, and an angry Harbaugh over his brother's firing.

Los Angeles Chargers +165 Moneyline (Bet $100 to win $165) at New England Patriots

If I think that the Chargers are going to cover the spread, then I damn sure am going to take them with the Moneyline.  It is time for Justin Herbert to play like we all think Justin Herbert should be playing.

Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots UNDER 46 1/2

Two tough, stubborn defenses.

Houston Texans -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers won the AFC north by backing in after a Tyler Loop missed 44-yard FG.  The Texans have won 9 in a row and 10 of their last 11.  And that defense!!!  They finished 1st in Total Defense, 2nd in Scoring Defense, 4th in Rushing Defense, 6th in Third-Down percentage defense, and 6th in Passing Defense.  Pittsburgh's best offensive stats are 15th in Scoring, and 22nd in Passing.

Houston Texans -155 Moneyline (Bet $155 to win $100) at Pittsburgh Steelers

I am getting lucky on this line as it opened at -175.  That being said, this game has all the signs of a trap for gamblers.  An obvious favorite, but on the road, with a wildcard in favor of the underdog (Aaron Rodgers and Chris Boswell kicking in Heinz).  Nevertheless, I am taking Houston.

Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 38 1/2

Gonna be a whole lot of field goals in this one!

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

So this particular Pacific Time Zone team gets the afternoon slot on Sunday, which helps immeasurably in covering the spread.  I also think they are the better team.  They are 8th in total offense and 5th in passing offense.   Philadelphia, on the other hand, is 24th overall in total offense.  They are a good, but flawed team, and San Francisco was fairly close to being the number 1 overall seed in the NFC.

San Francisco just has too much firepower, and Ricky Pearsall hasn't even gotten into a groove yet this year.  I expect big games from McCaffrey and George Kittle.

Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 51 1/2

Two of the 6 highest-scoring offenses in the league, in a southern stadium (no snow!).

I mean, this has to hit, right?

Last Week Record: 4-12

Last Week Big Bet: 0-1

Year-to-Date Record: 126-142-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-12

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($1,085)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($4,100)

Picks of the Week - NFL Week 18

 

This season just gets weirder and weirder.  Forget the games, Stefon Diggs arrested on felony strangulation and misdemeanor assault.  This must have been so bad that his brother was fired by the Dallas Cowboys, WOW!  Anyway, I lost all momentum this past week thanks to the egg laid by the Los Angeles Rams.  That win, and I would have had a second winning week in a row.

Happy New Year to everybody, and remember, one last week until the playoffs!!!

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Statistically the teams are not much different from each other, with the one good part of Carolina's offense (11th in rushing) will go directly against the one good part of Tampa Bay's defense (7th in rushing).  The Buccaneers just don't look right the past few weeks, and Carolina is getting points.  Winner (mostly) is in the playoffs, with the caveat that if Tampa wins and Atlanta beats New Orleans - Carolina still makes the playoffs.  And yes, I know I am going against the home team on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers +1 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

This game has all the makings of a phenomenal matchup, with the winner taking the #1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC (and a bye).  I am taking the home team on a short week as well as a home underdog in an intra-divisional matchup, so I like San Fran here.

Green Bay Packers +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game really means nothing to both teams, except that Malik Willis needs as many snaps as possible in case he is needed next week (unlikely) due to Jordan Love's concussion.  I cannot believe Max Brosmer is giving up nearly a touchdown.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is still in the hunt for the #1 overall seed in the AFC, but this line is a lot of points given how scrappy the Titans have been (L8, W, L7, W in December).

Houston Texans -10 v. Indianapolis Colts

Houston could actually be the best team in the AFC.  They have the best Total Defense and the Best Scoring Defense, and now, they are going up against Riley Leaonard at QB.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 at New York Giants

I know, I know, I am giving points on the road in a divisional game, but this Cowboys team is just too potent when both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are playing.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I think the Bengals win this game, but I also think that Cleveland and its second-ranked defense keeps this close.  Does Myles Garrett tie or break the single-season sack record is the only thing that matters in this game (he needs 1/2 sack to tie).

 

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Yes Atlanta played on Monday, and I should take the Saints getting points due to Atlanta's short week, but if that same Falcons team that played Monday shows up Sunday, look out Saints.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Detroit Lions

That Bears-49ers game last weekend was awesome.  Detroit has no reason to play this game, and even though they are professionals playing for Dan Campbell, it is hard to not subconsciously play less than 100%.

Miami Dolphins +10 1/2 at New England Patriots

Just taking the points here.  Ewers does show promise, and Miami's running game is explosive.  Could keep it close.

Los Angeles Rams -7 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

This Cardinals team is bad!  Rams need a bounce-back performance.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

The Commanders have lost 10 of their last 11.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. New York Jets

The Buffalo Bills have looked rather pedestrian of late, but you know what they haven't looked like?  A team that had to bail out Stefon Diggs.  Plus, the Jets are awful.

Kansas City Chiefs -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs get an 8 catch, 117-yard, 2 touchdown performance from Travis Kelce in his last game in the NFL.

Los Angeles Chargers +12 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Yes, I know that Justin Herbert isn't playing, but 12 1/2 is a lot of points for a team that hasn't won by more than 8 points since October.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

I sincerely think the Ravens will win this game, especially since Pittsburgh is without DK Metcalf.  But, I hate giving up points on the road, and I at least feel that this game could be close given that both defenses rank in the 20s in the NFL in Total Defense.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers +6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

This game really means nothing to both teams, except that Malik Willis needs as many snaps as possible in case he is needed next week (unlikely) due to Jordan Love's concussion.  I cannot believe Max Brosmer is giving up nearly a touchdown.

Malik Willis is playing for a contract/starting position somewhere - and some team SHOULD pick him up.

Last Week Record: 6-8-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 122-130-3

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 6-11

Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($130)

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($3,015) 

Picks of the Week

 

So, back on the winning track (kind of).  Two games over .500 is a start, although losing the Big Bet made me go backward monetarily.  I will take the winning week as a springboard for a monster this week (I hope?!)

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Ok, so first game and I am breaking the gambling rules by selecting the visiting team on a short week.  I don't like it, but instead of coming back down to earth after a big win over Ravens last week, I think the Steelers are going to be energized and really put it to the Browns.  I am thinking about making this my Big Bet.  We will see.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings

I cannot select two road, intradivisional favorites in a row.  That would drive me crazy.  And besides, this Bears defense is no joke.  The only question is can they bounce back after a second, heart-breaking defeat last week with the Packers blocking Cairo Santos' last-second field goal.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at New York Giants

This game, and this line is utterly preposterous.  Tommy DeVito?  What on earth to make of him?  Really, I don't care as I think Baker Mayfield will be happy to have Mike Evans back!  But this game is also why I picked the Bears.  Can't select three road favorites in the first 3 games.

Detroit Lions -7 at Indianapolis Colts

Until somebody proves otherwise, I am selecting the Lions.  I almost don't care the spread.  1st in scoring offense, 2nd in total offense, 3rd in rushing offense, 6th, in passing offense, 5th in scoring and rushing defense all make for a helluva squad.

Tennessee Titans -7 1/2 at Houston Texans

Only because Houston played Monday night.  The return of Nico Collins really does make for a more potent offense, though, so I was tempted to give the points, but Tennessee's defense is 1st against the pass and 2nd in total defense.

Miami Dolphins -7 1/2 v. New England Patriots

A whole lot of favorites here, but I think that Miami could put together a bit of a win streak here to make the playoff chase interesting down the line.

Washington Commanders -10 v. Dallas Cowboys

As I stated last week, going against the Cowboys until proven otherwise, almost no matter the spread.  And Dallas is on a short week this week (and next week, too!)

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

OK, not sure if it is me that is not even trying and just picking favorites, or if these games really are out-of-control this week.  Picking KC not because of Mahomes, but because their 3rd rated defense is palying the worst rated offense.

Denver Broncos -6 at Las Vegas Raiders

I can't help myself.  The Broncos have been undersold on the betting lines all year, and the Raiders - except for Brock Bowers - might be tanking.  Oh year, and Maxx Crosby, that guy plays 100% no matter what.

Arizona Cardinals +1 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game go either way.  Even though it is only 1 point, I will take it.  Perhaps a 28-27 push.

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Love will make a crucial turnover.  San Francisco is getting George Kittle back.  He will be the difference.   That was my thoughts before seeing that Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa are both out, and maybe Trent Williams.  You know Bosa is hurt because he would have loved sacking Jordan Love.

Los Angeles Rams +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I actually think Philly is the better team and will win.  I do, however, really like this Rams team and would love to see them end up in the playoffs.  It will be hard to find a game with better receivers than A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Cooper Kupp, and Puca Nakua.  Should be a fun one to watch!

Baltimore Ravens -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

Baltimore will be angry after their loss to the Steelers.  The Chargers defense is number 1 in scoring, but they are 11th total and rushing, and 12th passing.  Baltomre is first in total offense, second in scoring and rushing, and 3rd in passing.  They are last in the league against the pass, so there might be some plays for Justin Herbert to exploint, but I think the Ravens win bigger than most think.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -5 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Jordan Love will make a crucial turnover.  San Francisco is getting George Kittle back.  He will be the difference.   That was my thoughts before seeing that Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa are both out, and maybe Trent Williams.  You know Bosa is hurt because he would have loved sacking Jordan Love.

Too many injuries for San Francisco against a really good team.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  77-82-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-5

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($1,245)

Picks of the Week

This has been an incredibly interesting, which makes for horrible gambling odds, and yours truly has been affected, just like everyone else.  Average teams, like say the Buccaneers and Jets, look amazing one week, and horrendous the next.  Why can't average teams, just play average, so that we know what is going on.  Oh well, such is life.  Another .500 week, which I would ordinarily take, but it came along with my first big bet loss, so another week in the red.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Atlanta Falcons - 2 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This was an easy pick - but not an easy win.  Home team on a short week.

Minnesota Vikings -2 1/2 against New York Jets (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

The Jets defense, at least their pass defense, is starting to live up to its pre-season reputation, but unfortunately, the offense is struggling, and I don't think Aaron Rodgers (26 straight games under 300 yards passing) is the quarterback to turn this team around.  

Chicago Bears -4 v. Carolina Panthers

Yes, the Panthers seem to be much better with Andy Dalton behind center, but Carolina's bad defense may be just what Caleb Williams needs to get going after a 353 yard passing game (in a loss) followed by last week's win.  Chicago's defense is 5th in third-down percentage, which will be crucial in giving the offense as many possessions as needed.

New England Patriots +1 v. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins offens has been struggling (23rd passing, 24th rushing, 24th overally, last in points), but nowhere near as bad as New England's (31st in points, last in pass defense and overall defense).  But, then again, Miami is on a short week.  Give me the point.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville has been THE disappointment this season.  But, they have to win at some point, right?  The Jaguars have the 10th best rushing defense and are playing a Colts team without Jonathan Taylor - although Trey Sermon has a lot of talent.  Conversely the Colts are 31st in rush defense, and Tank Bigsby has been punishing defensive lines off the bench.

Buffalo Bills +1 at Houston Texans

If I told you the Bills offense was actually struggling statistically, you would not believe me, but, they are 17th in rushing, 20th in passing, and 21st overall.  But somehow, they are second in scoring.  Houston has been great against the pass (4th), but they won't be able to stop Buffalo coming off their beating at the hands of Baltimore.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

I really tried to find a way to select Cincinnati as a home underdog, but I just couldn't.  Baltimore will be on a roll following their thrashing of the Bills to get to 2-2 after starting 0-2.

Washington Commanders -3 v. Cleveland Browns

Washington has been playing too well - especially on offense where they are 6th overall, 3rd in scoring and 3rd in rushing offense) - to not pick them against a bad and boring Cleveland team what supposedly has Amari Cooper on the trade block.

Denver Broncos -3 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Denver has been playing games very close this year, even when they have looked bad.  Bo Nix looks like he has something, for sure.  The Raiders ... have a big Davante Adams problem ... and Gardner Minshew.

Arizona Cardinals +7 at San Francisco 49ers

Despite being great, San Francisco has not really overwhelmed this season, so 7 points seems like a lot of points to give to a team that looks like it has Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison, Jr. starting to click!

Seattle Seahawks -7 v. New York Giants

Seattle is on a short week, but New York is without Devin Singletary and Malik Nabors.  At least Seattle gets to stay at home.

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

If the Jacksonville Jaguars did not exist, this Dallas Cowboys team would be the disappointment of the season.  Ezekial Elliott returned to the backfield and he just proved that the Cowboys were right to jettison him the first time.  Dallas hasn't run on anybody this year - last in the NFL, and Pittsburgh is tough to run on anyway (3rd best in the NFL).

Kansas City Chiefs - 5 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Given the Saints abilities to play to the level of their opponent, New Orleans seems like the safest bet here.  And when a bet seems too obvious, go the other way.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -3 at Los Angeles Rams

This Packers offense is way better than the Bears offense, and the Rams couldn't stop the Bears.

I really wanted to pick Seattle here, but giving 7 points is a lot for a team on a short week.  Yes Green Bay lost last week, but Minnesota is legit, and the Rams are not.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  28-32-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-1

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($435)

 

Picks of the Week

 

Pathetically average week, but losing the Big Bet hurts a lot!  Try to turn this around this week, with a good start on Thursday!  Merry Christmas everyone, and good luck betting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I know that I am going against the above adage - home team on a short week, but the Bengals have been cruising under Jake Browning.  But, could it be stupid to bet against Rudolph (Mason) on Christmas weekend?!

Buffalo Bills -12 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is absolutely ridiculous!  I mean, I get why it is this high - what is an Easton Stick anyway? - but why am I picking it?  Gut feeling, and the Chargers have among the worst defenses in the NFL (30th overall, 28th scoring, 30th passing yards)  Calling Stefon Diggs!

Chicago Bears -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Chicago took the league's best defense down to the wire, and if not for a dropped TD on the final Hail Mary, would have beat them. Arizona's is nowehere near the level of the Browns (26th overall, 31st rushing, 31st scoring), but Chicago's defense may be close to that level now.

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle coming off an emotional upset win on Monday night, are ripe for an upset, especially since they are playing on a short week.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta's defense is playing very well this year (9th in total defense), and they were starting to use Bijan Robinson a bit, and then last week's loss to the horrendous Panthers happened.  And, Gardner Minshew is ripe to take this team to the playoffs, especially with Jonathan Taylor back.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Houston Texans

Case Keenum is a legitimate NFL quarterback, and is not going to be scared by being on the field.  The problem for him is that Cleveland's defense just runs through everyone.  And, Joe Flacco is still a legit NFL quarterback as well.  He might get sacked a few more times than normal, but he will fling it around the field.

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

Washington Commanders +3 at New York Jets 

I don't like this line one bit.  I actually wrote it selecting Washington, and picking New York.  Either way, I don't like it.  But, I really don't Trevor Siemian.

Detroit Lions -3 at Minnesota Vikings

This Lions offense is really potent (3rd overall, 4th passing, 2nd rushing, 5th scoring), and although Nick Mullens can play, Detroit is within range of home-field advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is in the midst of a three-game slump, and even with Trevor Lawrence being out of concussion protocol, their 25th ranked defense (overall/29th passing and 21st scoring) may have its collective hands full with a team that has won 3 games in a row scoring 34, 29, and 21 in those wins.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I honestly think that the Cowboys are going to win this game.  But ... I cannot pick 3 visiting teams on short weeks, and I already picked Cincinnati and Buffalo.

New England Patriots +7 at Denver Broncos

New England has played teams tough, losing by 10 last week to Kansas City.  Denver is not Kansas City.  I don't think Denver can score enough points to cover this spread against the Patriots defense (8th total, 2nd in rushing defense).

Las Vegas Raiders +10 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

There is no way Las Vegas is as good as their 63-point outburst last week, but they just may be good enough to cover a double digit spread against a team that has been struggling a bit in the past month or so.

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 1/2 v. New York Giants

A double-digit spread against an intra-divisional rival is almost always an automatic no-no (see Raiders above).  But, this is where the Tommy DeVito experience comes crashing to the ground like a feast of sleeping with 7 fishes.

Baltimore Ravens +6 at San Francisco 49ers

I just think that this game is going to be incredibly close.  Because of that, I'll take the points.  But, Nick Bosa might have the best game of any edge rusher ever.  I am assuming that he is going to be extra motivated (IYKYK) against the one team in the NFL with an all-black quarterback room (3 QBs, OC, QB coach).  Baltimore still keeps it close.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

I hate picking visiting teams giving points as my big bet, but there are not a lot of other choices out there.  I thought about the Browns, but they are in the same situation as the Packers being on the road giving up points.  The Colts and Raiders were also on my radar.  I am just hoping that Aaron Jones comes back from injury and has a terrific game (as I need him for fantasy too!)

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  119-93-12

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,400

Picks of the Week - Divisional Round

Pretty good wild-card weekend picks-wise, as most of the games stunk.  I'll take that over picks being bad but having amazing games.  Let's see if I can continue this through the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread (and money line and over/under in the playoffs).  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Tennessee Titans -4 v. Cincinnati Bengals

A few things concern me with this pick.  First, this line opened at 2 1/2, and has jumped up to 4.  That means big money has come in on Tennessee, and you never want to be on the same side as the majority of the bettors in most occasions.  Second, Tennessee's defense, although 5th in scoring defense, was 25th against the pass.  So, I highly expect Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins to make some big plays down the field.  But, Cincinnati's offensive line is atrocious and the Titans are 10th in sacks.  I expect Joe Burrow to be hit, a lot.  And, Derrick Henry returns.  Plus, he is fresh.  Tennessee wins.

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans Over 47 1/2

With two bad pass defenses, some big plays are there to be made.

San Francisco 49ers +5 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Two pretty stingy defenses, with San Francisco's just a bit better than Green Bay's on the season (5th overall to 11th overall; 9th in scoring defense compared to 13th).  This game has all the makings of being a close game, much like their week 3 30-28 battle.  This game is likely to turn on a turnover (I'm looking at you Jimmy Garoppolo!)

Green Bay Packers -$235 v. San Francisco 49ers (Bet $235 to win $100)

Aaron Rodgers continues his F  You tour by leading his Packers to a hard-fought win against the 49ers.  The week off gets everyone healthy and rested, and we end up with a Packers versus Buccaneers/Rams NFC championship.  A San Fran win would be disappointing to all but San Fran fans.  Plus, San Francisco is on a short week.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers OVER 47 1/2

Their week 3 battle ended 30-28.  I expect a similar score this week as Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams both make some big plays.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The NFL did Los Angeles no favors by making them play on Monday night, thus creating two teams this round that are playing on a short week.  Good thing for the Rams the Cardinals game was not particularly tough.  Tampa received some good news as offensive linemen Tristen Wirfs and Ryan Jensen will both be playing, however, they are not 100% after suffering injuries last week.  And, with Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd rushing the passer, those two injuries will likely play a major role in this game.

Los Angeles Rams +$130 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $100 to win $130)

Cam Akers and Sony Michel offer just enough of a running game to allow Matthew Stafford to make some plays downfield and lead the Rams to the Conference Championship.

Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 47 1/2

I love that all 3 of the O/Us are 47 1/2 right now.  Making all over bets makes it super easy for me to remember my choices!

Kansas City Chiefs -1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

This should be a phenomenal game.  Buffalo enters the game with the best defense in the NFL statistically (1st in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, 1st in 3rd down percentage defense, 1st in passing defense and 13th in rushing defense).  But, Buffalo lost cornerback Tre'Davious White to a knee injury in late November, and it is going to be hard to guard the Chiefs' speed on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman without White.

Kansas City Chiefs -$125 v. Buffalo Bills (Bet $125 to win $100)

Buffalo has a great chance to win this game.  I only took the Chiefs in the point spread bet because the spread is so low.  But, the money line isn't of any value for me to take Buffalo (+$110), if I think that Kansas City is actually going to win, so rather than canceling out my two bets, it is all-or-nothing on Kansas City.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54

Maybe a 38-31 type of a game.

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -$200 v. Cincinnati Bengals (Bet $200 to win $100)

Much like the point spread, but money has poured in for Tennessee as the money line opened at -$145.  But, once again Derrick Henry is back.  Plus, Ryan Tannehill is way better than he is credited, meaning he and A.J. Brown could make some plays against Cincinnati's 26th ranked pass defense.

Tennessee finished as the number 1 seed in the AFC even without Derrick Henry for a number of games.  This looks like the one favorite that is least likely to lose.

Last Week's Record:  10-7-1

Playoff Record:  10-7-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Playoff Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  153-136-1

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $334

Playoff's Winnings (Losses):  $334

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($6) 

Picks of the Week

 

A slight winning week by number of winners, but the damn big bet got me again.  I knew that Aaron Rodgers would come back to haunt me as the Packers covered late in the 4th quarter.  Ugh!  Well, let's see if the winning percentage at least still goes up!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

So, I was so exasperated by the fact that visiting teams have been doing well on Thursday night, that I just picked the visiting team without taking into account how poorly Baltimore has actually been playing.  That is on me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 at Washington Football Team

Giving up double digits on the road is never a good bet, but, Tampa is first in scoring offense, 1st in passing offense, 2nd in total offense and 2nd in offensive third down conversions whereas Washington is 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense, and last in passing defense and third down conversion defense.  And, Washington is 25th in scoring offense.  This game should not be close.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The fact that Ben Roethlisberger is out screams for a Detroit pick, except, we will probably get a huge dose of Najee Harris against Detroit's 29th ranked rushing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. New Orleans Saints

Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara both out.  Seems like a wash from that standpoint, so Tennessee is a much better team overall.  Mark Ingram is likely to become the leading rusher in New Orleans Saints history.

Atlanta Falcons +8 at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas should win this game, but Randy Gregory being out is HUGE for the Cowboys.  He was easily their most disruptive player on defense.  A lack of a pass rush probably keeps this game close.

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at New England Patriots

I should be taking Belichick in such a tactical game as this with both teams missing their star running backs, but this is one of those games where I just have a feeling that the Browns defense (3rd overall and against the rush), step up and pull this out - especially getting points.

Buffalo Bills -13 at New York Jets

The Bills are coming off a disappointing loss last week to the Jaguars, and I look for them to rebound with a vengeance.  This is akin to week 2, where after the Bills lost to the Steelers in week 1, torched the Miami Dolphins 35-0.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Indianapolis Colts

Perhaps the Jaguars derive a little momentum after their victory over the Bills.  My guess is that they keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Vikings should keep this close, since it seems like every game they are in is close.  Not sure how the civil suit filed against Dalvin Cook will affect his play, but the Chargers 32nd rush defense might look super appealing to him.

Carolina Panthers +9 at Arizona Cardinals

PJ Walker versus Colt McCoy.  Not how anybody would draw up this game, but that is what we have.  I completely underestimated Arizona with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins last time, but at least Christian McCaffrey is back.

Denver Broncos -1 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really have no idea how this game is going to turn out.  Since there really isn't much of a spread, I'll take the home team.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

Las Vegas Raiders +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

We have to be honest, this year's Chiefs are NOT the Chiefs of the past 3 years.  There is just something missing.  And the offense is probably not going to steady itself against the 5th ranked passing defense.  Plus, the Raiders have the number 2 passing offense in the NFL, and they are going against the 21st ranked passing defense in Kansas City.

San Francisco 49ers +3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Odell Beckham, Jr. is not going to be ready to play, or at least make a difference, in this game, which is a pity as the Rams lost Robert Woods for the season earlier this week.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

I am going to be more specific, I will absolutely bet on Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had.  Still surprised he is not suspended, though.  (Who am I kidding, no I am not!)

Bye Week:  Chigago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, New York Giants

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  73-63

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($485)

Picks of the Week - Conference Championship Weekend

Still positive for the playoffs is a good thing.  Trying to determine which prop bets might be worth taking in the Super Bowl is in the not-too-distant future.  But, what we have today is the most important weekend in terms of quality of football, as today should bring out the best games of the season.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers is your MVP, and this Green Bay team is a juggernaut.  Green Bay's offense is 1st in scoring, but what gets them there is that they are 2nd in third down percentage.  Plus, they are remarkably balanced with the 8th best rushing offense and the 9th best passing offense.  Tampa Bay's defense is 1st against the run, 8th in scoring defense and 9th in total defense, BUT, and it is a very big BUT, is 21st against the pass.  Aaron Rodgers should be able to carve up Tampa's secondary.  Green Bay will stop Tampa Bay more than the reverse as Tampa's offense is also prolific (3rd in scoring), but one-dimensional (2nd in passing, but 28th in rushing).

Green Bay Packers -185 Money Line over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bet $185 to win $100)

Primarily for all the same reasons as above.  If I feel that Green Bay is going to cover the spread, I should take them outright, escpecially since +$165 is the bests number I can get for Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers OVER 52

Both teams should score, a lot.  Especially if Green Bay takes an early 10-14 point lead and Tampa goes to an almost exclusive passing game.

Buffalo Bills +3 at Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes is the wildcard.  Even though he cleared the concussion protocol, he still has the turf toe which would limit his mobility.  Plus, Kansas City has not won a game by more than 6 points since November 1, and that was the New York Jets.

Kansas City Chiefs -175 Money Line over Buffalo Bills (Bet $175 to win $100)

I still feel that the Chiefs will win this game.  This is their third straigh AFC Championship game, and the Bills still have to show that they are ready to get over the hurdle that is the Chiefs.  Kansas City did beat the Billis 26-17 back in Week 6, so the Bills cannot sneak up on Kansas City.  Given that both defenses are relatively mediocre, they will likely determine the outcome of this game.  Buffalo's defense is 13th against the pass and in total defense, 16th in scoring defense, and 17th in rushing defense.  Kansas City's defense is 10th in scoring defense, 14th against the pass, 15th in total defense, but 21st in rushing defense.  This should be a great game.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs OVER 54 1/2.

Despite the previous 26-17 meeting between the two teams, this game should hit the over.  As mentioned above, both defenses are capable of making big plays, but are otherwise mediocre.  The offenses, however, are anything but.  Kansas City is only 16th in rushing offense, but 6th in scoring offense, 3rd in third down conversion percentasge, and 1st in passing yards and total offense.  Buffalo is very similar, in that it is only 20th in rushing offense, but 4th in total offense, 3rd in passing offense, 2nd in scoring offense and 1st in third down conversion percentage.  If both teams play well, this should be high-scoring.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Aaron Rodgers is your MVP, and this Green Bay team is a juggernaut.  Green Bay's offense is 1st in scoring, but what gets them there is that they are 2nd in third down percentage.  Plus, they are remarkably balanced with the 8th best rushing offense and the 9th best passing offense.  Tampa Bay's defense is 1st against the run, 8th in scoring defense and 9th in total defense, BUT, and it is a very big BUT, is 21st against the pass.  Aaron Rodgers should be able to carve up Tampa's secondary.  Green Bay will stop Tampa Bay more than the reverse as Tampa's offense is also prolific (3rd in scoring), but one-dimensional (2nd in passing, but 28th in rushing).

This is difficult, as the overs seem pretty good bets as well.  Despite the allegiance that many officials seem to have given Tom Brady during his career, this is Aaron Rodgers' year.

Last Week's Record:  4-4

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Playoffs Record:  6-7-1

Year-to-Date Record:  133-133-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  9-10
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $110

Playoffs Winnings (Losses):  $130

Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($995) 

Picks of the Week

 

Worst week of the year.  Just horrible.  With a capital HOR!  Took away all my earnings from the year, and possibly puts me in the negative.  I won't know until I get to the bottom of this column and actually calculate it.  [Ed. Note - It did erase all my profits for the year.] Oh well.  Stretch run here we come.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Home team, short week.  Chargers with virtually no receivers.  Then Derek Carr gets hurt, then fumbles, then field goals instead of touchdowns and that's football.

Denver Broncos + 5 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Denver has been playing teams really close, winning by 5 at Carolina and by 6 at Kansas City in the last two games.  This game is a home game, on a short week in altitude.  Plus, Denver is a respectable 11th in third down percentage, and getting the defense off the field is important, especially in Denver.

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

  

Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings

Let's not kid ourselves, I am taking whichever team is getting points in this clunker.

Indianapolis Colts -7 1/2 v. Houston Texans

Two weeks ago, I would have taken Houston in this game behind DeShaun Watson's remarkable season, figuring that the Texans lost by 6.  Now, the Texans are reeling, coming off a humbling at the hands of the Chicago Bears.  Houston's defense is 31st in total defense, 24th in passing defense, 31st in rushing defense, and 25th in scoring defense.  Jonathan Taylor to have a great game.

Detroit Lions +11 at Tennessee Titans

I know that Green Bay is a divisional rival of Detroit, and those games are always tough, but the Lions only lost by a touchdown to Green Bay.  I just think 11 points is too much.  Detroit 31-21.

Atlanta Falcons +6 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Who knew that Atlanta was going to play an important part in this year's playoff hunt, playing the Buccaneers twice in the last three games.  Tampa Bay is 21st in the passing defense and Atlanta is 6th in passing offense.  Matt Ryan and Calvin Ridley keep Atlanta in this game.

Baltimore Ravens -13 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

This spreak is difficulty, because the streaky Jaguars, despite losting 12 in a row after an opening week over the Indianapolis Colts (who would have guessed that at this point in the season), have had some close losses.  Not this week as it will be tough with the Jaguars and their 30th ranked rush defense take on the number 1 rushing offense in the NFL.   Short week for Baltimore, so the spread is probably too high, but why not.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. New England Patriots

Miami always plays New England tough in Miami Gardens, even when a great disparity between the quality of the two teams existed.  This is a much different season, and Miami learned a lot about themselves in a tough loss to Kansas City.  Plus, Tuanigamnualepola Tagavailoa.

Seattle Seahawks -6 at Washington Football Team

West coast team travelling east playing the early game, except Russel Wilson has flipped those stats covering about 80% of the time in that situation.  Make it 100% of the time with Dwayne Haskins starting.  I still love typng "Football Team".

Dallas Cowboys +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco has had a strong season considering they lost all 41 starters to injury, 22 of them in the same game.  But, as the season has grinded along, they are just worn down.  I expect Dallas to capitalize on that.

Los Angeles Rams -17 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a ridiculous line in an NFL game, but the Jets have lost by 17 or more 7 times this year.  And, this bet makes this game actually exciting.  Well, that and I have Jared Goff in the semi-finals of one of my fantasy leagues.

Arizona Cardinals -6 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Did Arizona right the ship last week by beating the Giants after 3 consecutive losses?  Or, is Jalen Hurts the remedy that Philadelphia needed to start to scare some teams and make a playoff run?  I think Arizona is playing the NFC East at just the right time.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at New Orleans Saints

The Saints desperately need Drew Brees back, as Taysom Hill is limited.  I think the Saints wished they played Jameis Winston a bit more during Brees' absence.  As it stands, they are going to lose their playoff bye.

New York Giants +6 v. Cleveland Browns

Cleveland is by far the better team in this game.  But, now hear me out, the Giants are 7th in the NFL in rushing defense, and might be able to slow down the Browns vaunted running game, which is third in the NFL.  That, and Cleveland has to experience a bit of a letdown after their stunningly close loss to Baltimore on Monday night (and this is a short week for Cleveland).

Pittsburgh Steelers -13 at Cincinnati Bengals

Brandon Allen.  Did I say Brandon Allen?  I meant Ryan Linley!

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers - 8 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Packers are 2-1 in the last 3 games against a spread in which they were favored by more than 1 touchdown.  The "will he or won't he play" thing with McCaffrey has to be wearing on this team that has played really tough all season despite its 4-9 record.  The Packers are just too much right now.  Plus, I pick the home team on a short week.

I really, really wanted to select Seattle here, but it is always better to take a home team.  In Aaron Rodgers we trust.  In Aaron Rodgers we hate, but we trust.

Last Week's Record:  4-12

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  109-95-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($985)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $760

Picks of the Week

 

Another really good week.  Could have been a great week, but for the damn Big Bet, and the damn Bears, who never once looked like they were going to lose until the strip sack in the fourth quarter.  Otherwise, the money would have been great.  Still up thanks to a 10-5 record.  Hopefully we can keep this rolling.

As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.  I feel like right now we know a lot of things, but given the craziness of the week, I suppose more could happen.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New England Patriots +5 at Los Angeles Rams

Yes, I know, always take the home team on a short week.  But, the Patriots played in LA last week, and stayed on the west coast, so no travel.  I thought, for once, perhaps Belichick and found a way around the betting rules.  I thought wrong.  Perhaps it is because they were not at home for an entire week plus.

Houston Texans -2 at Chicago Bears

Just to think, DeShaun Watson was supposed to be playing in this game, except for the home team.  I will never forgive the Bears for that (or picking Curtis Enis over Randy Moss, but I digress.)

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville gets a jolt at home, to lose by 7.  Interestingly, the Jaguars have not allowed Derrick Henry to rush for 100 yards in any of his 4 games in Jacksonville, which is virtually Henry's home.  That fact, and perhaps the Titans let up just a bit against the Jaguars means they win, but don't cover.

Carolina Panthers -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

This game is an absolute crapshoot.  I have heard from lots of "experts" and talked to a lot of friends, and the consensus is all over the board (meaning no consensu).  I'll just take the home team, if I have to have a reason to justify it.

Cincinnati Bengals +3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys' defense is atrocious (last in the NFL in rushing defense and scoring; 24th in total defense.)  Add that to the fact that Dallas is playing on a short week, and giving points.  I will take them.

Miami Dolphins +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City, although winning, has not been dominant.  In fact, there last 4 wins have been by a combined 15 points, and that is only because they beat Denver by 6 last week.  Miami has been playing tough, solid football in all three phases of the game.  On top of that, Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa is starting to get comfortable on the field behind center.

New York Giants +2 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

This was a really tough one for me to choose.  Arizona has lost 3 in a row after defeating Buffalo. So, does that mean they are sliding, or does that mean they are due?  Well, they aren't quite a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing at 1, but they are coming from the Mountain time zone, so I am going to take the home points.  Should the Giants when this game, they would have identical records with Arizona.

Minnesota Vikings +6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

How is this not a 3 point spread?  I know Tampa Bay is at home, but geez, 6 1/2 seems high.  Strength on strength in this game as Minnesota - which relies heavily on Dalvin Cook - will be challenged by the NFL's number 1 rated rush defense.

  

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Indianapolis Colts

Honestly, I just didn't want to pick a road favorite here.  No other reason.

New York Jets +15 at Seattle Seahawks

I know that Seattle is very, very good offensively (3rd in total offens, 4th in scoring offense), and their defense has played much better as of late, but the Jets have recently lost by 3 to the Raiders, 6 to the Chargers, 3 to the Patrtiots, and 8 to the Bills.  They only other games in their last 6 have been a 24-0 shutout and a 20-3 loss to the Dolphins, who clearly have their number.  They have been playing teams pretty close, so I will take 2+ touchdowns.

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

Atlanta Falcons +1 at Los Angeles Chargers

I don't know what think about this one.  This is also strength-on-strength, with Atlanta's passing offense (without Julio Jones) going against the Chargers passing defense (5th in the NFL).  Everything about this game tells me to take the Chargers, so I am taking the Falcons.

New Orleans Saints -7 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

Maybe Jalen Hurts is just the jolt that the Eagles need, however the announcement that Jason Peters is done for the season - and his career - is going to be too much.

Washington Football Team +3 at San Francisco 49ers

This defense line for Washington is outstanding - and first rounders all (Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen.)  Plus, Alex Smith is THE best story in the NFL this year.  And, San Francisco is on a short week.

Buffalo Bills -2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

No, I am not overreacting to Pittsburgh's loss to Washington last week as everyone should have seen that coming after Pittsburgh's tumultuous prior week regareding scheduling of their game with the Ravens.  But, before that, they had not looked particularly dominant.  Despite Buffalo playing on a short week, I am taking the Bills due to the fact that they have been clicking of late.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

The Browns played their absolute best last week against Tennessee, and there is no way that they play like that twice in a row.  Yes, I am violating all types of gambling rules in this one (visiting intradivisional favorite; taking a team on a short week) but I feel the Browns aren't yet ready for this particular challenge.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -8 at Detroit Lions

Seems like I have to pick another road favorite.  If this spread was 10, with it being an intra-divisional game, I would have gone the other way, but at 8, I will take Aaron Rodgers.

So, really?  I am taking a road favorite in an intra-divisional game, favored by 8 nonetheless, as my big bet.  Yes I am.  Why?  Because Detroit can't do that to me twice in a row, right?  And, because I have more faith in the Packers than the Saints (with Hurts being an unknown betting commodity) and Minnesota getting points.  Washington was a thought also.

Last Week's Record:  10-5

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  105-83-4
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $285
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $1745

Picks of the Week

     

Six consecutive winning weeks.  Woo Hoo!!!  I know this streak is going to end, I am just going to ride it as long as I can.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -1 1/2 v, Atlanta Falcons

Simply because they were the home team.  I couldn't get  a real read on this game.

Pittsburgh Steelers +4 at Baltimore Ravens

In this battle, I am taking the points.  I wish I did this earlier as the spread was 6 at the beginning of the week.   A battle of two very similar teams that know each other well.

 

Indianapolis Colts -3 at Detroit Lions

To below average offenses (Indy 23rd/Detroit 21st), but the Colts defense is much, much toughter (1st in total defense, 2nd in passing defense, 3rd in rushing defense, and 4th in scoring defense).

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes this would seem like a big spread for an intradivisional rivalry, except Green Bay is 2nd in scoring offense and going against Minnesota's 3oth rank scoring defense.  This should be a rout.

Buffalo Bills -4 1/2 v. New England Patriots

Nothing would surprise me with Bill Belichick, but this is not his year.  I expect Buffalo to score a bunch against New England.

Tennessee Titans -7 at Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals can move the ball through the air (12th in the league), but by every other metric they are not good.  At least Joe Burrow is proving worthy of the #1 pick.

Cleveland Browns -1 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Cleveland can run the ball extremely well (3rd in the league), and the Raiders (16th in the league) are mediocre at stopping the run.  Plus, we have a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game - although they do get an extra hour of rest due to the ending of Daylight Savings Time.

Kansas City Chiefs -19 1/2 v. New York Jets

This spread is utterly ridiculous.  Just ludicrous.  And I am just crazy enough to take it and give almost 3 touchdowns.  Frankly, it is because it makes this game more exciting to watch, and it is the only way to make this game exciting.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE THIS PICK.  Rookie quarterback making his first start against a team that is clearly playing well, especially on defense.  But, the Rams are coming off a short week and traveling east and playing the early game.  Who am I to go against the gambling Gods.  Did I mention that I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE THIS PICK?  But, the Tuanigamanuolepola era begins!!!

Chicago Bears +4 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Competing gambling rules here, don't pick too many road favorites versus Chicago on a short week.  I feel that since New Orleans' defense is nowhere near as dynamic as the LA Rams' defense was, that Chicago's offense might gain enough ground to keep this close.

Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Denver Broncos

In a battle of 2-4 teams, only the Chargers have looked better under Herbert.  And honestly, this spread and pick is another reason why I picked the Bears earlier, too many road favorites, but since Denver is only averaging under 20 points a game, I feel like the Chargers could score enough to win 27-17.

San Francisco 49ers +2 at Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco has struggled through a number of injuries, but still have the 9th total offense, and 8th rushing offense, along with a tremendous defense (3rd in passing defense, 4th in total defense, 5th in scoring defense, and 9th in rushing defense), they should have enough to take advantage of Seattle's horrendous defense.

Dallas Cowboys +10 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Horrible spread for a horrible game.  The DiNucci Era begins!!!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12 1/2 at New York Giants

Tampa is averaging over 31 points a game, and the Giants only average 17.  And, honestly, if I am taking Kansas City giving up 19 1/2 points, I should take Tom Brady giving up less than two touchdowns.  And really, the story of Tampa Bay has been the emergence of Ronald Jones.  He is really showing why the Buccaneers were sold on him in the first place.

Bye Week - Arizona Cardinals, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Washington Football Team (Oh My God do I LOVE typing that)

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

Yes this would seem like a big spread for an intradivisional rivalry, except Green Bay is 2nd in scoring offense and going against Minnesota's 30th ranked scoring defense.  This should be a rout.

The Aaron Rodgers revenge tour continues - even with Aaron Jones injured (who was having a phenomenal season), and I wanted to pick for my Big Bet a home team.  My other thoughts were Buffalo over New England, and Tennessee over Cincinnati.

Last Week's Record:  7-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  61-41-3
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $190
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2640

Picks of the Week

     

So, I don't care about jinxing myself at this point, as a losing week is inevitable, but last week was my fifth consecutive winning week.  Sure, the picks were at .500, but with the big bet, I finished on the plus side again.  As always, any late breaking Covid cancellations will not count, and if some games are moved to Monday or Tuesday, I suppose I will revise as necessary, depending upon who is out with the Covid.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

New York Giants +5 at Philadelphia Eagles

This goes against the gambling rules, but Zach Ertz was hurt, as was Miles Sanders, and the offensive line is horrible.  I know the Giants are not good, but they are not 5 points worse than Philadelphia.

Tennessee Titans -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have no idea what to do here, so I am just taking the home team since it is virtually a pick 'em.

Atlanta Falcons -2 v. Detroit Lions

Both teams are horrible on defense, but the Falcons do have the 4th best total offense, and they don't look as bad as Detroit does.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Cincinnati Bengals

Road intra-divisional favorites are always a tough bet, but Cincinnati, despite a promising future with Joe Burrow, still lack a lot of talent, especially on the defense.  Cincinnati's 27th ranked rush defense now has to compete with Cleveland's top-ranked rushing offense, which hasn't missed a beat despite losing starter Nick Chubb to injury.

Carolina Panthers +7 at New Orleans Saints

New Orleans just hasn't looked entirely right this season, and now they will be without starting wide receivers Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.  Alvin Kamara has a ton of talent, but cannot do absolutely everything.

New York Jets +10 v. Buffalo Bills

I hate doing this, but I feel compelled to do so since Buffalo is on a short week.  Perhaps the Jets score a late touchdown to lose, but cover 30-21.

Washington Football Team +1 v. Dallas Cowboys

Dallas is completely discombobulated without Dak Prescott.  The offense is in such trouble, that even Zeke Elliott fumbled the ball twice last week.  Plus, they are on a short week.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level.  Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Even if the Raiders are allowed to start the 4 offensive lineman that were just activated from the Covid Reserve list (pending negative tests today), none of them have practiced all week.  Not good when facing the defense ranked 2nd in total defense, 6th in passing defense and 1st in rushing defense.

New England Patriots -2 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

This is literally just a gut reaction.  Probably because I think Belichick will bounce back after last week's atrocity that was an 18-12 home loss to Denver.

Denver Broncos + 7 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Only because Kansas City is on a short week, and perhaps because Denver has some confidence after winning at New England last week.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Probably a good game to miss.

Seattle Seahawks -3 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Seattle needs to shore up the defense if they want to make a serious Super Bowl run, but for now, the 4th ranked passing offense and 5th overall offense, should be enough to remaing undefeated, and cover the spread against a Cardinals team that played on Monday night.

Chicago Bears +6 at Los Angeles Rams

The Chicago Bears will likely lose this game as with James Daniels injured, Aaron Donald will likely have 142 sacks.  But, the Bears defense will likely keep this game close.

 

Bye Week - Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Houston played very well is last week's overtime loss to the Titans, but the Packers are on a whole different level.  Green Bay will be angry coming off a loss, and the 26th ranked scoring defense is the perfect opportunity for Aaron Rodgers and company to rebound.

I hate taking a road favorite as my Big Bet, but the 3 lines that jumped off the board at me all were road favorites (which scares me in general).  I will select this one because I believe in Aaron Rodgers more than Baker Mayfield, and because Seattle is in a Sunday night prime-time game (where weird things often happen).

Last Week's Record:  7-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  54-35-2
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $80
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $2450

Picks of the Week

  

My first huge week of the year.  I usually have 2 or 3 of those, to counteract 3 or 4 really bad weeks, with the rest all within a game or so either way.  So, I will take the big week when all 16 teams are playing (no byes), as that makes the winning just so sweet (and gives me a cushion for the inevitable poor showing).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 v. Miami Dolphins

I took the home team on a short week, and no, I am not ashamed.  I will just take the "L".

Chicago Bears +3 at Atlanta Falcons

Everything about this game tells me to take the Falcons.  Their offense is humming despite being 0-2; whereas the Bears have squeaked by Detroit and the New York Giants to be 2-0.  But, the Falcons already suspect defense (31st in total defense, 31st in pass defense, 32nd in scoring defense) lost first round pick and starting corner A. J. Terrell for the game due to a positive Covid-19 test.  At least the game didn't get canceled.

Buffalo Bills -2 v. Los Angeles Rams

I actually think the Rams are the better team, and their offense is 3rd in rushing AND 9th in passing (5th overall).  But, I try not to overthink things and the Rams are a west coast team travelling west and playing in the early game, which I almost always try to bet against.  It is easier to do when Buffalo has the 3rd best total offense and the 5th best total defense.

Cleveland Browns -7 v. Washington Football Team

I have no idea what to think of the Browns.  Seven points seems really high so I should take Washington, but sometimes when that bet looks just too easy, go the other way, especially when Washington has the 31st ranked offense in the league.

Tennessee Titans -3 at Minnesota Vikings

Say what you will about the Vikings, but they are consistent.  They rank 30th in total offese AND total defense.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Two things at play here:  (1) A west coast team travelling east for the early game; and (2) The Raiders are on a short week having played on Monday night.  That, and this Belichick coached team is remarkably balanced, ranking 8th in passing offense and 9th in rushing offense.

New York Giants +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Nobody knows what we will be getting from this 49ers team, having lost their entire defensive line and their quarterback last week.  Yes Saquon Barkley is out for the Giants, but they are playing at home and they spread the ball out well against the Bears last week.

Philadelphia Eagles -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow has played remarkably well, and has a much higher passer rating than Carson Wentz.  But, he doesn't get to play against his own defense like Wentz does today.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Houston Texans

Stop me if any of this surprises you.  Pittsburgh has the best rush defense, the 7th best pass defense, the 2nd best total defense and 6th best scoring defense.  Watson, lost his best receiver DeAndre Hopkins.

New York Jets +11 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Listen, I know the Jets stink.  Badly.  But 11 1/2 is a big spread consider Indaianapolis' offense is 31st in third down conversions (gotta keep the ball to score).  That being said, it will be hard for the Jets to move the ball against the Colts.  Still, give me that many points and I'll say 28-17 Indy.

Los Angeles Chargers -6 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

Mike Davis is an adequate replacement for an injured Christian McCaffrey, but nobody in this league is McCaffrey.  At least Teddy Bridgewater did't receive a punctured lung from his own training staff.

Arizona Cardinals -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The Lions were steamrolled by Green Bay after DeAndre Swift's heart-breaking, game-ending drop against the Bears in week 1.  Their misery continues against a good-looking Cardinals team that - since they play in the NFC West - needs to win as many of these non-divisional games as possible.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6 at Denver Broncos

Because you can't have enough road favorites.  (That is sarcasm, but besides this is only number 2 of those this week).

Seattle Seahawks -5 v. Dallas Cowboys

Seattle is GOOD, offensively.  Their defense is great against the run (2nd in the league), but paltry elsewhere (last in passing defense and total defense, 20th in scoring defense).  So, if Ezekial Elliott can establish any bit of a running game, the could have a chance.  But, they would still have to stop the Seahawks, with the 25th ranked total and scoring defense.  Not going to happen.

Green Bay Packers +3 at New Orleans Saints

Aaron Rodgers is on fire; Drew Brees is not.  Green bay has the best total offense, rushing offense and scoring offens in the NFL (and 4th in passing), with the 10th best total defense.  New Orleans has been struggling on offense and are again without record-setting receiver Michael Thomas.

Kansas City Chiefs +3 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens

Yes Baltimore's defense is amazing so far.  But, Mahomes and his weapons can score against anyone.  And I get points?  Yes please!!!

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers +3 at New Orleans Saints

Aaron Rodgers is on fire; Drew Brees is not.  Green bay has the best total offense, rushing offense and scoring offens in the NFL (and 4th in passing), with the 10th best total defense.  New Orleans has been struggling on offense and are again without record-setting receiver Michael Thomas.

Although there were a couple of easy-looking bets on the board, I feel that Aaron Rodgers is on a mission to prove to the Packers - and the world - that he was not ready for them to draft a quarterback to "replace" him.

Last Week's Record: 11-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  18-13-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $700
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): $670

Picks of the Week

With the exception of the Minnesota - New Orleans game, last week was very good.  Even with my 3 losses from that one wildcard game (and one BAD one at -$400), I still finished up for the week.  Let's see how that playoff luck continues in the divisional round.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.  Since it is the playoffs, I might make more big bets, and I will also be betting the money lines in the games.

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers -320 over Minnesota Vikings (Bet $320 to win $100)
San Francisco is the better team, they should win this game.  Of course, Minnesota got me last week as well, but Rudolph did push-off on the game winning touchdown and the playoff rules stink - both teams should at least get one possession.

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers UNDER 44 1/2
These defenses are good, and San Francisco is getting a ton of players back from injury.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee is the type of hard-nosed, ball-control team that could give Baltimore trouble.  For that, there is no way that I will give up 10 points in this round of the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens -450 v. Tennessee Titans (Bet $450 to win $100)
This is the type of line to make me consider taking Tennessee, but I do feel that the Ravens will win this game, and I am confident in that so I have to take the money line on them to win.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens UNDER 47
Two ball control teams will limit possessions, thus limiting scoring.

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by 2 touchdowns.

Kansas City Chiefs -450 v. Houston Texans (Bet $450 to win $100)
See my analysis of the Baltimore money line and the Chiefs ATS bet.  Patrick Mahomes will put up POINTS.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 51
A 35-14 Chiefs victory still hits the under here.

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.

Green Bay Packers -200 v. Seattle Seahawks (Bet $200 to win $100)
Despite the fact that I think this is going to be a close game, at plus $170, there is not enough value for me to take a team with no running game fronted by Travis Homer.

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers OVER 46 1/2
I can't pick all unders, and in this one, Green Bay wins 27-24.

Big Bet I

Minnesota Vikings +7 at San Francisco 49ers
Look, I get why San Francisco is favored, but with a defense like Minnesota's that is playing extremely well, this number seems high to me.  Give me the touchdown.
This game is going to be close.

Big Bet II

Kansas City Chiefs -9 1/2 v. Houston Texans
I love DeShaun Watson.  Hell, probably no non-fan of Clemson or the Houston Texans love DeShaun Watson more than I do.  I still feel he should be quarterbacking the Chicago Bears.  But, if not for his super-heroics last week, Houston does not get passed the Buffalo Bills.  And, this Kansas City team is way better than the Buffalo Bills, especially offensively.  It sounds stupid to give up 9 1/2 in the divisional round of the playoffs, but in this case, I will do it.  Kansas City by at least 2 touchdowns.

This game is not.  35-14.

Big Bet III (Because it's the playofs)

Seattle Seahawks +4 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Yes, I know that Russell Wilson's numbers in Green Bay are his worst in any stadium, but he can keep the Seahawks in this game.  Green Bay's secondary is much improved from last year, but D.K. Metcalfe has improved the Seahawks receiving corps.  This game will be close.
Seattle would win this game is Chris Carson was healthy.

Last Week's Record:  7-5
Last Week's Big Bet:  2-1
Year-to-Date Record:  131-134-4
Year-to-Date Big Bet:  16-8
Playoff Record:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $85
Playoff Winnings (Losses):  $85
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses):  ($815)