Picks of the Week

It is the heart of the season where teams make a playoff push, or fall, and bettors make money, or lose.  Time to button-up and get some wins.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -5 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

The first game between these two teams was an overtime barnburner, but this time around is a short week for the visting Bengals.  Still managed to take it down to the wire.

New York Giants -5 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers in Munich, Germany

Carolina is embarrasing - so let's send them overseas.

Chicago Bears -6 v. New England Patriots

Perhaps this bet is just hopeful.

New England Patriots +3 at Tennessee Titans

This might just be the defense that Caleb Williams needs to right the ship and prove that he is improving in his rookie season.  This is not the defense Drake Maye wants to see right now, even though he has shown promise in his few starts.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

West coast team traveling east versus team on a short week. So, there is no good bet here.  I am taking the team with returning playmakers (McCaffrey and Jennings), versus the team without them (Godwin and Evans).

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I would feel much better if this was a 6 1/2 point spread, as this is a divisional game, but DeAndre Hopkins makes this Chiefs offense way scarier, as defenses had focused on Travis Kelce, and now they can't.  Plus, the Chiefs deense has been outstanding (2nd overall, 3rd against the rush, and 4th in scoring).

Buffalo Bills -4 at Indianapolis Colts

For all of the blame that Indy's offense, particularly Anthony Richardson, has taken this year, the Colts' defense is 30th in total defense, 26th in passing, 31st in rushing, and 24th in 3rd down percentage.  Just what Josh Allen needs.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Washington Commanders

The marquee game of the week.  Really just playing a hunch here, given Brian Robinson is out for Washington.

Minnesota Vikings -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota as a road favorite this high is tough, but Jacksonville's defense is 31st in the NFL in total defense and passing defense (and 30th in scoring defense), not good when going against Justin Jefferson.

Los Angeles Chargers -8 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Another big spread, but at least this time at home.  Chargers are the stingiest team to score against, and Tennessee rarely scores (27th in NFL).

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia has won 4 in a row, and the Cowboys are without Dak Prescott, and CeeDee Lamb is hobbled.

New York Jets -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Just a hunch honestly, based on the Jets defense (2nd in passing, 6th in total defense, 10th in scoring defense).

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins would be a great return for this Texans, but he still might not be up-to-speed, and this Lions team is humming with 6 wins in a row.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

The Rams are on a 3-game winning streak, and get to host the struggling Dolphins at home.  Can the Rams defense (24th against the run) slow down Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert?  Enough, yes, given that the returns of Cooper Kupp and Puca Nakua have made this offense way more potent than its ranking (18th).

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -3 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

No Chris Olave hurts the team that is a mediocre 18th in the NFL in passing.  Meanwhile Atlanta has won 5 of its last 6, and is in control of the NFC South.

When you take a lot of favorites, you have to select a big bet giving points, and 3 1/2 is not that much given how easily I think the Falcons will win.  It has taken a while for the defense - and all its new members - to gel, but Justin Simmons and the other new Falcons are certainly coming around.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-8-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  65-66-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-3

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($355)

Picks of the Week

 

11-3!!!  Against the spread.  That is all I am going to say!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Carolina Panthers

Home team, short week, tie.  Ugh!

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. New England Patriots (Frankfurt, Germany)

Colts offense too much for the Patriots.  Hate that this is the 9:30 game, as I don't want to watch it.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are just not good.  Steelers statistics are well below their record, but they just make the plays when then need to do so - especially on defense - and Diontae Johnson could have a field day without Jaire Aleaxander.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Minnesota Vikings

Since this isn't an intra-divisional game, I don't mind giving up a few points on the road. Josh Dobbs was a great story last week, but now he actually has time to plan, prepare and think about the gameplan - and sometimes that can hurt a team.  Honestly this is going to come down to if Minnesota can run or not, and they are 29th in the league, so that answer is no.

Houston Texans +6 at Cincinnati Bengals

This might be the most enjoyable game of the week.  Taking the points despite the fact that the Bengals have been playing awesome football lately because J'Marr Chase, if he plays, will be limited by a back injury and Tee Higgins has already been ruled out.  Grab Tyler Boyd for your fantasy team!

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Yes, it is hard to move the ball, much less score against Cleveland's defense, but, the Ravens give up less points (13.8 to 17.4), and Cleveland is missing its top 3 tackles.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Tennessee Titans

I do not like this line AT ALL.  Either way.  I guess I'll take the home team.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Taking the east coast team against the west coast team in the 1:00 slot game.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

A lot of points are going to be scored here, and I will definitely be watching.  Chargers defense is 31st in total defense and last in passing defense. Jared Goff goes off.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

I don't know what to make of this game because we just don't know how rusty Kyler Murray will be.  And, Arthur Smith at some point has to learn he can use Bijan Robinson, right?

Washington Commanders +6 at Seattle Seahawks

A battle of two teams that are both way better than people expect, and possibly even better than their records.  I'll take the points, as I think this should have been about a 2 1/2 or 3 point spread.

Dallas Cowboys -17 1/2 v. New York Giants

This is the most ridiculous line I have seen in a long, long time in an NFL game.  So, why not?  The only think that concerns me is if Tommy DeVito has some mobbed up relatives that are betting a lot on the Giants.

Las Vegas Raiders +1 v. New York Jets

Honestly, who care about this game?  Raiders win big.  Plus, Jets played Monday night.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Denver Broncos

I don't like this line either.  Would be just as angry in picking the Broncos.  In this situation, I will take the home team and the team I feel is just more likely to win the game.

Bye Week:  Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are just not good.  Steelers statistics are well below their record, but they just make the plays when then need to do so - especially on defense - and Diontae Johnson could have a field day without Jaire Aleaxander.

Sometimes you do have to take the game that you think is the obvious pick.

Last Week's Record:  11-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  75-54-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $605

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,650