Picks of the Week

Another winning week to cut into the big deficit that hit me a few weeks ago.  Super short week with two Christmas Day games, so I have no idea what is going to happen this week.  Let's see how it goes.  

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

This seems like a really close game, especially given the short week and George Pickens coming back, but I think I have learned not to bet against Kansas City.

Baltimore Ravens -6 at Houston Texans

Houston deflated when Tank Dell was injured.  Wednesday is too short of a time frame for the team to get themselves out of that funk.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Chicago keeps it close at home on a short week; Caleb throws for over 300 yards to put himself in line to break the season-season record for the Bears.

New England Patriots +4 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Short week, west coast team flying east and playing in the 1:00 slot - ON A SHORT WEEK.  New England played Buffalo close last week as well, so they might be on a roll.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

If there is a defense that Bo Nix needs to rebound against, it is Cincinnati's, but the Burrow-Chase combination has been ridiculous this year, and I expect that to continue, especially on a short week.

Los Angeles Rams -6 v. Arizona Cardinals

It is time for Arizona to start examining the Kyler Murray era.

Dallas Cowboys +9 at Philadelphia Eagles

Yes Dallas is 7-8 and Philadelphia is 12-3, but Dallas has been playing much, MUCH better lately, winning 4 of its last 5.  And, with this being a divisional game, I did not expect the spread to be THIS high.  Philadelphia should still win, but 9 points is too much.  I'll take them.

New York Jets +10 at Buffalo Bills

Much like the above Dallas-Philadelphia game, this spread is way too high, especially given Buffalo's recent streak:  W+3, W+6, Loss.  I'll take the points, even though I expect a Buffalo win.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 at New Orleans Saints

Brock Bowers might be the only thing to watch in this game; unless you are just rooting for Cameron Jordan in his 58th season for the Saints.  New Orleans just got drubbed on Monday night, so it is a short week for them.

Indianapolis Colts -8 at New York Giants

The Giants gave up on this season a long time ago.

Carolina Panthers +8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really wanted to pick Tampa Bay here, given that they are at home, but they beat Carolina a few weeks ago by only 3, and the Panthers have been in close battles lately:  W+6; L-16; L-6, L-3, L-3 (Kansas City), L-3, W+1, so all signs point to this being a close game.

Tennessee Titans -1 at. Jacksonville Jaguars

Mac Jones has actually been moving this team a bit in relief of Trevor Lawrence, but Mason Rudolph is a more steadying hand for the Titans than Will Levis was.  Plus, Tennessee has the number 1 defense in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -3 at Cleveland Browns

Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his 30.1 quarterback rating.

So, this spread has dropped to -3 from -6 1/2, in large part because Tuanigamanuolepola Tagavailoa has been ruled out.  So, we now have an immortal qb matchup - Tyler Huntley versus Dorian Thompson-Robinson.  And, Thompson-Robinson still has a 30.1 quarterback rating.

Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Green Bay Packers

In what is essentially a pick 'em, I will take the home team because I have no idea who is going to win this game.

Washington Commanders -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Last week's game was a big pick-me-up for this Commanders offense, which they continue this week against the 21st ranked passing defense and the 19th ranked scoring defense.  Plus, let's give some love to the Commanders and their 9th ranked total defense.

Detroit Lions -3 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

This game almost seems unfair, especially since we never know who will be playing for San Francisco from one week to the next.  Either way, Detroit rolls.

Big Bets:

Carolina Panthers +8 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I really wanted to pick Tampa Bay here, given that they are at home, but they beat Carolina a few weeks ago by only 3, and the Panthers have been in close battles lately:  W+6; L-16; L-6, L-3, L-3 (Kansas City), L-3, W+1, so all signs point to this being a close game.

Carolina was good to me for the big bet last week, so I will roll with them again for a second week in a row.

I had so many to choose from, Miami (road favorite), Las Vegas (same thing), Dallas, but rolling with the Panthers.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  118-112-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 9-7

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $390

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($325)

Picks of the Week

 

Winning record but lost money, thanks to the fact I forgot George Pickens wasn't playing.  Won't make that mistake today.  Thursday pick looked great for the first half, then the Chargers came to life.  Oh well.  Two Saturday games - let's get after it.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

Like I typed earlier, first half looked great.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, the away team on a short week.  Houston's defense is on a heater - moving up to 6th in total defense and 9th in scoring defense, and Kansas City, even though they win, don't blow anyone out.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

The aforementioned George Pickens loss makes Pittsburgh's offense really stagnant.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 at Chicago Bears

The Bears snuck up on Detroit on Thanksgiving.  They will not do that this week.

Cincinnati Bengals -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Dorian Thompon-Robinson?  And Cincinnati has the 5th highest scoring offense in the NFL, going against the 26th ranked scoring defense.

 

Atlanta Falcons -9 v. New York Giants

I ordinarily hate picking a team starting a QB for his first ever NFL start, but Penix might just be what Atlanta needs after Kirk Cousins squandered a 6-3 start.  Plus, it's the Drew Lock-led New York GIants, and his 54.6 rating.

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Will Levis is officially looking over his shoulder; and a nervous Will Levis is a bad Will Levis.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Road favorites in an intradivisional matchup are difficult picks, but not when that team is among the best in the NFL right now.  Philadelphia are 4th in total offense (1st in rushing) and 1st in total defense 1st in passing and scoring).

Los Angeles Rams -3 at New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers' destruction of a New York institution is almost complete.

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Seattle Seahawks

I might as well just keep picking road favorites!  How can that hurt?

New England Patriots +14 at Buffalo Bills

Only because the spread is two touchdowns.  Likely would have taken Buffalo if it was 10, maybe even 11.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Long live the Mac Jones Era!!!

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Miami Dolphins

Looks like the Dolphins will be without Jaylen Waddle AND Tyreek Hill.  I reserve the right to change this before game time if Hill plays.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is playing like not only will they deserve to be in the playoffs, but they could make some noise.  But, Dallas has been playing a lot better recently, and if not for a weird blocked punt, muff for a Cincinnati first down, could be on a four-game winning streak.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, do I think that New Orleans will win? No.  Do I think New Orleans will keep this close?  Also no. But 14 1/2 is a lot of points to give up in an NFL game.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Because it seems so crazy, I will take Carolina.  For most of my other choices they were either giving points, or on the road (or both?!), so I will take the points in a home game and hope for the best.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  109-106-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-7

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($715)

Picks of the Week

 

This season has already been incredibly difficult, and not just for those of us who bet based on the point spread.  Ya'll really need to check on your friends that just pick winners/losers - they are not all right.  A .500 week, not great but I did win my big bet, so in the black for the week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -5 at New York Giants

My regular readers know that I hate picking a road intra-divisional favorite, and I hate picking the road team on a short week even more.  Why did I pick Dallas, then?  Well, the spread started at 6 1/2 and moved down to 5.  That means lots of money coming in on the Giants.  When that happens, go the opposite.  Didn't matter as this game pushed.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Bears offense may be generally unproductive, byt the Rams defense equally stinks.  This should provide an opportunity for the Bears to open some things up on offense and if unsuccessful, let the 7th ranked defense hold the Rams, especially since the Bears are second in 3rd down percentage defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

The NFL's number 1 defense versus the NFL's 31st ranked defense.  George Pickens with 2 touchdowns.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is expected to be active, but is he really going to be ready to play?

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is on a short week, and this Jaguars team may go down as one of the all-time disappointments in NFL history.  At least they didn't pay Trevor Lawrence recod-type money!  (Oh, never mind!)

New Orleans Saints +3 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has been a very good 1-2 team; and the Saints had one of the most impressive wins when they decimated Dallas in week 2.  This game likely turns on whether Alvin Kamara plays or not, but since he is playing right now - albeit questionable - gotta take these points.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are going to disappint until they learn: (1) To get the  ball more to Mike Evans; and (2) play Bucky Irving more in the run game.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Denver Broncos +8 at New York Jets

The Jets we expected to see under Aaron Rodgers showed up last week, and could be areal contender.  I just don't like the 8 points, and Denver dismantled Tampa Bay last week, and play Pittsburgh tight the week prior.  This could be really close.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Rookie quarterback playing in his first short week, and on the road.

San Francisco 49ers -10 v. New England Patriots

I despise taking double digit favorites, but San Francisco is coming off two straight upset losses, so they need to really take control of a game.  In addition, this Patriots team stinks.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am a big Antonio Pierce fan, and I belive him when he says he is not going to put up with the effort the Raiders gave last week; except then Davante Adams went out with a hanstring injury, and I am not sure where Las Vegas gets its offensive energy and emotion.  Cleveland is not very good either, but they overmatch the Raiders.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Justin Herbert's injury, and even though he is playing he could be hobbled.  But I also know that the Chargers have the 7th-best rushing offense in the NFL and the 6th best total defense in the NFL.  And yes, the Chiefs are 3-0, but they have not been that impressive of a 3-0 team.  Even if I win, I think this game is within a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

To me, Buffalo has been the most impressive team in the NFL this year.  But, Baltimore should be more motivated, as they NEED this game.  Yes, this early in the season and they NEED a win.  Plus, Buffalo is on a short week, of which I expect the Ravens to take advantage.

Tennessee Titans +2 /2 v. Miami Dolphins

I know what Tennessee brings to the table this year; and it isn't good.  What I don't know is what Tyler Huntley brings to the table this year.  When there is uncertainty like this, I take the points.

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Two legitimate playoff teams clashing on Monday night.  A great time to watch football.  I am taking the points with Seattle primarily because Seattle is the third-best passing offense in the league, and Detroitis 19th in pass defense.  And yes, Detroit has a great offense (4th in total offense; 4th in rushing offense; 7th in passing offense), but Seattle is second in total defense (1st in passing defense).  I'll take the points.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Although I am not sold on Carolina overall, for my big bet I like to take a home team whenever possible, and if they are getting points even better.  I thought about the Chargers for that reason, but I don't like betting big against Patrick Mahomes.  I also considered Philadelphia, but that violates both of my preferences.  Five points is a decent amount, so I make this bet, hope and believe that Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson provide the Red Rifle with as much support as he needs, and trust that Cincy's short week hurts them.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  21-25-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $70

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($200)

 

Picks of the Week

Not only is the NFL back, but so am I.  A great 11-4-1 week, which means this week will probably tank.  We did start off well by winning Thursday.  Let's see if we can keep this going.Cin

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. Baltimore Ravens
The classic overreact game, where the Ravens are coming off their shellacking of the Buffalo Bills, to the point where they are road favorites in an intra-divisional game.  This was an easy pick for that reason.

Carolina Panthers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Falcons played really tough against the Eagles on the road last week, but they lost a lot of really good players to injuries, including Safety Keanu Neal, Linebacker Deion Jones and Running Back Devante Freemen.  Julio Jones is still phenomenal, but he doesn't play defense.

Buffalo Bills + 7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Yes the Bills are awful, but no they are not starting Nathan Peterman.  That, and given the fact that the Chargers are a west coast team travelling east to play in the early game, which historically - and significantly - favors the east coast team against-the-spread.   Boy is it hard to make this pick, though.  Really, really hard.

Green Bay Packers + 2 1/2 v. Minnesota Vikings
Another pick that it is really hard to make given we don't know Aaron Rodgers's full status.  We do know that he will play, so I will take the points at home.

New Orleans Saints -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
I almost selected the Browns here getting almost 10 points.  But, there is no way this Browns offense is as potent as the Buccaneers offense was last week  (Go FitzMagic!), and to top things off, this Josh Gordon situation has become as problematic as it ever could be for Cleveland and its offense.  When he is on the field he is dynamic.  When he is not, he is a dynamic pain-in-the-ass for the Browns.  New Orleans in a cakewalk.

Miami Dolphins +3 at New York Jets
Another overreacttive line based upon a surprise showing from last week.  Sam Darnold looked pretty good at times, but this should be a lot closer line that 3.  Miami 24-23, once again causing all of the Ryan Tannehill haters to have to be quiet for at least another week.

Kansas City Chiefs +4 at Pittsburgh Steelers
James Conner did have a great opening week replacing Le'Veon Bell, but this Steelers team just did not look right last week.  And, if Josh Gordon is going to torch your secondary, guess what Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill are going to do.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles
I promise that this is not an overreaction to Tampa Bay's defeat of New Orleans last week, but more of a reaction to the play, or lack thereof, of Nick Foles.  The Eagles may very well win this game, but it will be close, so I will take the points.

Houston Texans -4 at Tennessee Titans
I hate road favorites, especially in intradivisional games, and doubly especially in games after the favorite looked pedestrian at best.  But then I hear that Blaine Gabbert is going to be making an appearance for the home underdog, and I feel much better.

Washington Racists +6 v. Indianapolis Colts
At some point in time I need to stop underestimate the Racists, especially when playing against mediocre and worst teams, which the Colts certainly are.

Arizona Cardinals +13 at Los Angeles Rams
For those that follow this blog, you know that I thing the Rams were the second best team in the league last week, and the Cardinals were the second worst.  You can see that here.  But, 13 points is a huge number.  Just huge.  I cannot pull the trigger on that big of a spread this early in the season.

San Francisco 49ers -6 v. Detroit Lions
This is another hard pick for me, as there is no way that the Lions play that bad this week.  Also, there is no way Garappolo plays that bad either.  I would feel more comfortable if this was 3 1/2-4 points.  I will still give them.

Denver -6 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
I have a strong feeling that this Raiders season is going to be a dumpster-fire.  That is all.

New England Patriots +1 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have a great defense.  GREAT.  But, they also have Blake Bortles against Tom Brady.  Yes the AFC Championship game was phenomenal and Jacksonville was on Myles Jack fumble recovery for touchdown away from being in the Super Bowl, but they were also one coaching staff afraid to put the ball in the hands of their starting quarterback away as well.  And ... they have the same quarterback.  Plus no -or very limited - Leonard Fournette.

New York Giants +3 at Dallas Cowboys
I don't think either of these teams is very good, thus, I will take the points.

Chicago Bears -3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks
Both teams looked lively in losses last week.  I am picking the Bears only because of more Khalil Mack!

Big Bet
Carolina Panthers +6 at Atlanta Falcons
So the Falcons played really tough against the Eagles on the road last week, but they lost a lot of really good players to injuries, including Safety Keanu Neal, Linebacker Deion Jones and Running Back Devante Freemen.  Julio Jones is still phenomenal, but he doesn't play defense.  Too many injuries to the Falcons.

Last Week's Record: 11-4-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 11-4-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $810
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $810

Picks of the Week

Three straight 8-8 weeks, but this is not helping me cut into my deficit.  I have a good feeling about this week.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver Broncos -3 at Indianapolis Colts
Denver has no offense.  Indianapolis has no offense OR defense.

Chicago Bears +5 at Detroit Lions
Detroit has won 8 of its last 9 against Chicago, and I don't expect that to change today.  What I do expect is a close game given how the Bears defense has been playing, and Ameer Abdullah's injury and fumble problems.  If he is in the game, he will fumble.  If he isn't, then Detroit becomes one-dimensional on offense.

Los Angeles Chargers -1 at Kansas City Chiefs
So technically this is a road, intra-divisional favorite on a short week, but it is only one point and it is Saturday night rather than Sunday morning, so not that short.  The Chargers have outscored their opponents 131-53 in the last four games, all wins.  Kansas City has a long way to go to recapture their early season offensive form.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Buffalo Bills
If the season ended today, Buffalo (with only 1 more win than the Dolphins) would be in the second wildcard position and make the playoffs.  I do not believe they are a playoff-worthy team.  Neither do I believe in Miami, so I will take the point.  Both teams offenses are awful (Miami 28th in yards, 24th in points; Buffalo 26th in yards and 23rd in points).  So I do not expect a lot of points to be scored in this game, so I will take the extra 3.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Green Bay Packers
So Aaron Rodgers is coming back from a broken collarbone.  It'll be interesting to see if and how much he plays, as Brett Hundley is still technically the starter.  Doesn't really matter as Carolina has the 7th best pass defense to accompany the 4th best rush defense (5th overall).  They will eat Hundley alive, and Aaron Rodgers - as great as he is - will be a bit rusty.  I see the allure in playing Rodgers as Green Bay is still technically in playoff contention, but there really is no reason to rush him back this year.

Cleveland Browns +7 v. Baltimore Ravens
Yes, I know, I always pick against Cleveland, and it usually works. But, Cleveland has been playing much better as of late (see last week's overtime loss to Green Bay, and Baltimore's offense, despite being 9th in the league in scoring is 27th in total yards and 29th in third down percentage.  Baltimore by 6.

Houston Texans +11 at Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars will win.  The question is, "by how much:".  Eleven points is a lot in an intra-divisional battle (See Dolphins hosting Patriots from last week), and Houston's defense is 10th against the rush (Jacksonville's forte) and 5th in third-down percentage.  Jacksonville 27-17.

Minnesota Vikings -11 v. Cincinnati Bengals
Eleven points is still a lot, but this is not an intra-divisional matchup, and Cincinnati looks like they have given up.  Chicago - of all teams - took them behind the woodshed last week.  Minnesota should do the same.  Minnesota is third in total defense and 7th in total offense, whereas Cincinnati is 32nd in total offense - DEAD LAST - and 19th in total defense.  Minnesota big.

New Orleans Saints -16 v. New York Jets
With Josh McCown in the game, the Jets would have a fighting chance, and the spread would not be 16.  As it stands, the Jets lead the league in Bryce Pettys and Christian Hackenbergs.  This line couldn't be high enough to make me take the Jets.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 1/2 at New York Giants
Yes, Carson Wentz is out, but Nick Foles does have experiencing starting.  The Giants have experience in being 29th in offense and 32nd in defense, including 31st against the run.  If the Eagles want to simplify things for Foles, they can run LaGarette Blount, Jay Ajayi and Corey Clement at this 31st ranked run defense.

Washington Racists -4 v. Arizona Cardinals
Washington is a disappointing 5-8 right now, but the Racists are at home, and although Arizona is not in the Pacific time zone, they are west travelling east for an early game.  And they are starting Blaine Gabbert.

Los Angeles Rams +2 at Seattle Seahawks
A hugely important game in the NFC, and arguably more important than the Patriots/Steelers game.  If any team will attempt to exploit the Seahawks depleted secondary it will be the Rams.  And, Los Angeles has the horses to get after Russell Wilson, who has played extraordinarily this year.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. New England Patriots
This should be a tough, close game, which is why I am taking the points at home.  I do not discount New England much after last week, as every team has their down day and Gronkowski is back, so I do expect them to play Pittsburgh tough.  Pittsburgh's defense might still be playing emotionally after losing Ryan Shazier, but his production cannot be overlooked.  He led the team in tackles, interceptions, passes defensed and forced fumbles.  Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell do lead the league in receiving and rushing respectively, but New Enlgand leads the league in Belichecks and Bradys.  Give me points.

San Francisco 49ers -1 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
San Francisco - who played teams tough despite losing early in the season, now has a two game winning streak with Jimmy Garapolo at the helm.  Tennessee, although 8-5 and in the playoff hunt, just doesn't seem like a playoff team.  Their offense is 22nd in the league, and their defense, despite being 9th overall, is 22nd against the pass.  A tough close game, but San Francisco gives Tennessee's playoff hopes a ding.

Dallas Cowboys -3 at Oakland Raiders
After a few game hiccup, the Cowboys have now won two games in a row after Tyron Smith has returned at left tackle.  Do not underestimate his importance to the team.  If you don't believe me, go back and watch the weeks 10-12 games against Atlanta, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Chargers.  Oakland, on the other has won 3 of its last 5, but those victories have come against Miami, Denver and New York Giants (losing to New England and Kansas City).  I don't even recognize this Oakland offense from what I expected after last season.  I blame Marshawn Lynch.  Seriously.

Atlanta Falcons -6 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is another huge disappointment this season, and Atlanta, after struggling earlier this season, seems ot be hitting their stride having gone 5-2 in their last 7, including wins against Dallas, Seattle and New Orleans, as wwell as a 14 point victory over Tampa Bay.in week 12.

Big Bet

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Green Bay Packers
So Aaron Rodgers is coming back from a broken collarbone.  It'll be interesting to see if and how much he plays, as Brett Hundley is still technically the starter.  Doesn't really matter as Carolina has the 7th best pass defense to accompany the 4th best rush defense (5th overall).  They will eat Hundley alive, and Aaron Rodgers - as great as he is - will be a bit rusty.  I see the allure in playing Rodgers as Green Bay is still technically in playoff contention, but there really is no reason to rush him back this year.
This was a tough decision for me as I honestly thought about selecting 5 different games for the big bet.  This was the home team giving up the fewest points.  Other home teams considered were Minnesota (-11) and Washington (-4).  Eleven was just too many points and Washington is too erratic.  Away teams considered include Dallas (-3) and Atlanta (-6).  Both teams were visiting teams and in the case of Atlanta, a Monday night game, which is always more difficult to bet.

Last Week's Record: 8-8
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  102-100-6
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  8-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($245)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($710)

Picks of the Week

Very mediocre week last week.  This week seems pretty easy for me.  As only two games are being played, I will pick the winner, against the spread, and the over/under for each.

As  a reminder, each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. Now, on to the picks.

WINNERS

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
To quote my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before".  This seems a bit obvious to me for some reason.

Carolina Panthers v. Arizona Cardinals
Carolina, despite what happened in the second half, thoroughly dominated the Seattle Seahawks, who might be the third or fourth best team in the entire league.  Carolina wins this game, despite the fact that everyone thinks that Carson Palmer, along with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown can take advantage of Carolina's secondary.  Who, is going to take care of Cam Newton?  Really tough year to have gotten rid of Darnell Dockett, Arizona.

AGAINST THE SPREAD

New England Patriots -3 at Denver Broncos
I know what you are saying, "Pepster, why would you take a road favorite in the playoffs?"  Here is why.  New England took Denver into overtime earlier this year without Julian Edelman, the single most important player for New England not named "Tom Brady".  Why is Edelman that important?  Because he gets himself open immediately off the line of scrimmage, which allows Tom Brady to throw those short passes which keeps the defensive pass rush from hitting him.  If the team bunches up against Edelman, then Gronkowski then becomes open.  And to quote Dan Lebatard, "Gronkowski is not human.  Bill Belichick just found a polar bear and taught him how to catch things".  Plus, Peyton Manning did not play in the earlier game, and Peyton is more of a detriment to the Broncos given that he is basically a shell of his former self.  His play actually gives an extra 6 points to New England, in my opinion.

Carolina Panthers -3 v. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have had a great year, and are perhaps the second best team in the NFL, unfortunately, they are playing the best team in the NFL.  Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are the best linebacker combination in the NFL.  I WILL NOT ARGUE THIS POINT!!!  They have a phenomenal running game, led by Cam Newton, for whom Arizona's defense just cannot account.  If Arizona is going to have a chance, they are going to have to win an absolute shootout, which brings Greg Olsen - the second best tight end in the league this year behind Gronk and highly touted member of the Seventh Floor Crew, into importance - which is not what Arizona wants to do.  If Arizona can make it a shootout, Carson Palmer will have to keep his interceptions down to 0 or 1, which can be tough.

OVER/UNDER

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos 45 - OVER
The Patriots with Gronkowski and Edelman is good for at least 30 themselves, despite the talent on Denver's defense.  The quick passing game will not allow the Broncos' defense to hit Brady with any regularity, and thus, he will pick them apart little by little.  Denver - in order to win - is going to have to rely heavily on its inconsistent running game, which Belichick will gameplan against.  They will tempt Manning to beat them, which he cannot do.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers 47 1/2 - OVER
Lots and lots of points to be scored today, although I feel the over won't be hit until late in the fourth quarter, when a rallying Arizona Cardinals team scores a touchdown with around 2 minutes to go, just before they fail to recover the onside kick.  One note about the Panthers courtesy of Bomani Jones and his producer.  While discussing that Patrick Peterson could cover Ted Ginn, Jr. man-to-man in order to take him out of the game, Jones's producer states that Corey Jones and Jerricho Cotchery will have to have big games.  Bomani Jones's response is simple.  "It's 2016 and we are talking about Jerricho Cotchery".  Now you may think that quote would lead me to pick Arizona, but that goes to show how great Cam Newton and Greg Olsen have been this year - Carolina is winning with Ted Ginn and Jerricho Cotchery.

Big Bet Game of the Week
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Going back to my boy Hopps, "I've seen this show before".

Last Week's Winners:  2-2
Playoff Winners to Date:  5-3
Last Week's Record:  4-4
Playoff Record:  8-11

Year-to-Date Record: 136-127-5
Big Bet Last Week: 0-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 13-6
Winnings/(Losses) Last Week: ($205)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $590

Picks of the Week

Welcome to our Picks of the Week.  For a quick refresher on the procedures behind my picks (for those that are new - this will be new): Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will pretend that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig, which just makes the math that much simpler. On to the picks.

I am just going to admit that I have no idea what is going on this season.  Brian Hoyer, Kansas City and Eli's interceptions are just a few of the crazy things this year.

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
Yes it was Thursday, but this was my pick.

New Orleans Saints -1 at Chicago Bears
Henry Melton is out for the season, Steven Paea and Charles Tillman are still questionable.  The Bears need all hands on deck to try to slow down the Saints offensive juggernaut.  Could be an enjoyable high scoring game.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots are doing this with offensive smoke-and-mirrors.  The Bengals front 7 is likely to put too much pressure on Tom Brady.

Green Bay Packers -7 v. Detroit Lions
This is what I wrote initially, "Do I think the Lions are as good as they looked last week - No.  Do I think they can score a ton of points, at least keep this close and possibly beat the Packers - Yes."  Then I found out that Calvin Johnson was out.  He means that much to Detroit.

Indianapolis Colts +3 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks are a much different team away from home, and I have already picked one road favorite today.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Miami Dolphins
The Ravens offensive line will have its hands full with the Dolphins defensive line, but with time, we have seen that the Dolphins can be beat through the air - especially deep.  A couple of big Torrey Smith and/or Dallas Clark plays makes the Ravens at least cover.

Philadelphia Eagles +2 at New York Giants
So long as they do not turn the ball over the Eagles offense can move the ball against anyone, and the Giants are much less impressive than "anyone".  I'll take the Eagles with the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars +11 at St. Louis Rams
The Jaguars have to cover sometime, so it might as well be against the disappointing Rams.  If St. Louis is going to live up to how good some pundits - including me - thought that they were going to be, they need to win big today.  I don't see it happening.

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been impressive this year, but the Titans could easily be undefeated.  Plus, as I stated in my Colts/Seahawks pick - I have already picked one road favorite.

Denver Broncos -7 at Dallas Cowboys
I am not sure that anyone can slow down the Broncos right now.  Seven points does not seem like a high enough spread.

Houston Texans +5 at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers are just missing too many weapons.  The Texans gave the Seahawks all they can handle, and Seattle is a much tougher team than San Francisco right now.

San Diego Chargers -4 1/2 at Oakland Raiders
San Diego has played very well this year, even in its losses. Oakland is in flux, with Terrelle Pryor's concussion injury putting some wonder in to how much he will be able to play today. Plus, Oakland is not very good.  It is a good thing that both teams are west coast teams with the time change for kickoff, but if one team is affected by this, we could have a crazy ballgame.  And yes, I know, a third road favorite.

New York Jets +9 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
The Jets have not played that poorly defensively, and they are capable of some big plays.  Although Atlanta is a much better ball club, I could see this being a 6 or 7 point game.

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

CarolinaPanthers - 2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals
OK, so I am picking another road favorite.  Carolina has played tough in its losses - well, at least the loss to the Seahawks, and since Arizona cannot run the ball, Carolina should be able win handily.

Previous Week's Record: 7-7-1
Year to Date: 27-32-3
Big Bet Last Week: 1-0
Big Beat Year to Date: 3-1
Winnings (Losses) Last Week: $80
Winnings (Losses) Year-To-Date: ($425)