Picks of the Week

 

This season has already been incredibly difficult, and not just for those of us who bet based on the point spread.  Ya'll really need to check on your friends that just pick winners/losers - they are not all right.  A .500 week, not great but I did win my big bet, so in the black for the week.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -5 at New York Giants

My regular readers know that I hate picking a road intra-divisional favorite, and I hate picking the road team on a short week even more.  Why did I pick Dallas, then?  Well, the spread started at 6 1/2 and moved down to 5.  That means lots of money coming in on the Giants.  When that happens, go the opposite.  Didn't matter as this game pushed.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Bears offense may be generally unproductive, byt the Rams defense equally stinks.  This should provide an opportunity for the Bears to open some things up on offense and if unsuccessful, let the 7th ranked defense hold the Rams, especially since the Bears are second in 3rd down percentage defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

The NFL's number 1 defense versus the NFL's 31st ranked defense.  George Pickens with 2 touchdowns.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love is expected to be active, but is he really going to be ready to play?

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is on a short week, and this Jaguars team may go down as one of the all-time disappointments in NFL history.  At least they didn't pay Trevor Lawrence recod-type money!  (Oh, never mind!)

New Orleans Saints +3 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta has been a very good 1-2 team; and the Saints had one of the most impressive wins when they decimated Dallas in week 2.  This game likely turns on whether Alvin Kamara plays or not, but since he is playing right now - albeit questionable - gotta take these points.

Philadelphia Eagles -1 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers are going to disappint until they learn: (1) To get the  ball more to Mike Evans; and (2) play Bucky Irving more in the run game.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Denver Broncos +8 at New York Jets

The Jets we expected to see under Aaron Rodgers showed up last week, and could be areal contender.  I just don't like the 8 points, and Denver dismantled Tampa Bay last week, and play Pittsburgh tight the week prior.  This could be really close.

Arizona Cardinals -3 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Rookie quarterback playing in his first short week, and on the road.

San Francisco 49ers -10 v. New England Patriots

I despise taking double digit favorites, but San Francisco is coming off two straight upset losses, so they need to really take control of a game.  In addition, this Patriots team stinks.

Cleveland Browns -2 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

I am a big Antonio Pierce fan, and I belive him when he says he is not going to put up with the effort the Raiders gave last week; except then Davante Adams went out with a hanstring injury, and I am not sure where Las Vegas gets its offensive energy and emotion.  Cleveland is not very good either, but they overmatch the Raiders.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know all about Justin Herbert's injury, and even though he is playing he could be hobbled.  But I also know that the Chargers have the 7th-best rushing offense in the NFL and the 6th best total defense in the NFL.  And yes, the Chiefs are 3-0, but they have not been that impressive of a 3-0 team.  Even if I win, I think this game is within a touchdown.

Baltimore Ravens -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

To me, Buffalo has been the most impressive team in the NFL this year.  But, Baltimore should be more motivated, as they NEED this game.  Yes, this early in the season and they NEED a win.  Plus, Buffalo is on a short week, of which I expect the Ravens to take advantage.

Tennessee Titans +2 /2 v. Miami Dolphins

I know what Tennessee brings to the table this year; and it isn't good.  What I don't know is what Tyler Huntley brings to the table this year.  When there is uncertainty like this, I take the points.

Seattle Seahawks +3 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Two legitimate playoff teams clashing on Monday night.  A great time to watch football.  I am taking the points with Seattle primarily because Seattle is the third-best passing offense in the league, and Detroitis 19th in pass defense.  And yes, Detroit has a great offense (4th in total offense; 4th in rushing offense; 7th in passing offense), but Seattle is second in total defense (1st in passing defense).  I'll take the points.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Yes, I belive that an Andy Dalton-led Panthers team can be dangerous.  Not playoffs, but dangerous.  I also belive that Cincinnati better solve their J'Marr Chase problem, as he recently showed up for practice 15 minutes late and in street clothes.  Plus, Cincinnati played Monday and is on a short week.

Although I am not sold on Carolina overall, for my big bet I like to take a home team whenever possible, and if they are getting points even better.  I thought about the Chargers for that reason, but I don't like betting big against Patrick Mahomes.  I also considered Philadelphia, but that violates both of my preferences.  Five points is a decent amount, so I make this bet, hope and believe that Chuba Hubbard and Diontae Johnson provide the Red Rifle with as much support as he needs, and trust that Cincy's short week hurts them.

Record

Last Week's Record:  8-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  21-25-2

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-0

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $70

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($200)

 

Picks of the Week

So, the previous week wasn't the regression from my 13-2 week, but last week really was.  Could have been a lot worse if any of the 3 ties broke in the other direction.  Yes, 3 ties.  Ridiculous.  But, gotta bounce back, so I have given serious thought to the picks this week.  Let's see how that goes.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I didn't actually want to pick the Steelers on Thursday, but somehow, just sticking to the gambling rules, home team on a short week, actually worked!!!

Miami Dolphins + 1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs (in Frankfurt, Germany)

This pick actually makes no sense, as both offenses are dynamic (1st in the Dolphins, and 4th for the Chiefs), but the Chiefs have s sturdier defense (3rd overall, 2nd in scoring, 2nd in passing).  But, I just think the Jalen Ramsey addition is going to jump start Miami after his interception last week.

Chicago Bears + 9 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Saits win easily, but I just cannot give up almost double digits and be happy watching the game.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Every fiber of my being says the Rams take this; but people lose going against the gambling rules.  We have not had a west coast team traveling east and playing in the early slot in a long time.  Gotta take the Packers.

Washington Commanders +3 at New England Patriots

Even with Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington was 29th in pass defense.  Although the Patriots have played tough recently, the Commanders won't need a pass rush to annoy Mac Jones.

Houston Texans -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston is 11th in pass offense whereas Tampa Bay is 28th in pass defense.  Expect a big game from C.J. Stroud in bouncing back from last week's loss to the Panthers.

Cleveland Browns -12 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Double digits is a tough spread in the NFL, buta rookie quarterback making his first start for a team that seems like they have clearly given up this season.  Plus, DeShaun Watson's return could spark a talented, but underachieving pass offense.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The Ravens are playing amazingly right now, and their defense will be the difference in this game.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team, traveling east, and playing in the early slot - which are historically sure losers against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

It would be that kind of year for the Bears to have the Panthers win 2 games in a row.  But, I don't think so.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

Two dumpster fires going head-to-head.  Remind me to miss this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The passing games are what is going to decide this game.  The Eagles are 26th in pass defense, and although the Cowboys are 4th, they are currently playing without any cornerbacks (ok, slight hyperbole).  Eagles because they are home.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions, so much so that I am taking the team that is the 31st ranked offense and 28th ranked defense, and giving points to the Bills.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at New York Jets

Seriously - do you actually believe that the Jets have the best record here?  (They do!)  But, the league's worst pass defense has nothing to fear in the 31st ranked passing offense, so I'll take the team that scores.

Bye Week:  Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

I don't like any of these games for the Big Bet.  My other thoughts were taking the Las Vegas Raiders, and Houston.  But, just gonna bet against the BYU quarterback in his first start.  (That's Jaren Hall, not Zach Wilson, but also applicable!!!)

Last Week's Record:  5-8-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  64-51-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($230)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,045 

Picks of the Week

 

A slight winning week by number of winners, but the damn big bet got me again.  I knew that Aaron Rodgers would come back to haunt me as the Packers covered late in the 4th quarter.  Ugh!  Well, let's see if the winning percentage at least still goes up!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereasv, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore Ravens -8 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

So, I was so exasperated by the fact that visiting teams have been doing well on Thursday night, that I just picked the visiting team without taking into account how poorly Baltimore has actually been playing.  That is on me.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10 at Washington Football Team

Giving up double digits on the road is never a good bet, but, Tampa is first in scoring offense, 1st in passing offense, 2nd in total offense and 2nd in offensive third down conversions whereas Washington is 29th in scoring defense, 29th in total defense, and last in passing defense and third down conversion defense.  And, Washington is 25th in scoring offense.  This game should not be close.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The fact that Ben Roethlisberger is out screams for a Detroit pick, except, we will probably get a huge dose of Najee Harris against Detroit's 29th ranked rushing defense.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. New Orleans Saints

Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara both out.  Seems like a wash from that standpoint, so Tennessee is a much better team overall.  Mark Ingram is likely to become the leading rusher in New Orleans Saints history.

Atlanta Falcons +8 at Dallas Cowboys

Dallas should win this game, but Randy Gregory being out is HUGE for the Cowboys.  He was easily their most disruptive player on defense.  A lack of a pass rush probably keeps this game close.

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at New England Patriots

I should be taking Belichick in such a tactical game as this with both teams missing their star running backs, but this is one of those games where I just have a feeling that the Browns defense (3rd overall and against the rush), step up and pull this out - especially getting points.

Buffalo Bills -13 at New York Jets

The Bills are coming off a disappointing loss last week to the Jaguars, and I look for them to rebound with a vengeance.  This is akin to week 2, where after the Bills lost to the Steelers in week 1, torched the Miami Dolphins 35-0.

Jacksonville Jaguars +10 at Indianapolis Colts

Perhaps the Jaguars derive a little momentum after their victory over the Bills.  My guess is that they keep it close.

Minnesota Vikings +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Vikings should keep this close, since it seems like every game they are in is close.  Not sure how the civil suit filed against Dalvin Cook will affect his play, but the Chargers 32nd rush defense might look super appealing to him.

Carolina Panthers +9 at Arizona Cardinals

PJ Walker versus Colt McCoy.  Not how anybody would draw up this game, but that is what we have.  I completely underestimated Arizona with Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins last time, but at least Christian McCaffrey is back.

Denver Broncos -1 v. Philadelphia Eagles

I really have no idea how this game is going to turn out.  Since there really isn't much of a spread, I'll take the home team.

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

Las Vegas Raiders +2 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

We have to be honest, this year's Chiefs are NOT the Chiefs of the past 3 years.  There is just something missing.  And the offense is probably not going to steady itself against the 5th ranked passing defense.  Plus, the Raiders have the number 2 passing offense in the NFL, and they are going against the 21st ranked passing defense in Kansas City.

San Francisco 49ers +3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Odell Beckham, Jr. is not going to be ready to play, or at least make a difference, in this game, which is a pity as the Rams lost Robert Woods for the season earlier this week.

Big Bet

Green Bay Packers -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Anybody really want to bet against Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had?

I am going to be more specific, I will absolutely bet on Aaron Rodgers after the last two weeks he has had.  Still surprised he is not suspended, though.  (Who am I kidding, no I am not!)

Bye Week:  Chigago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans, New York Giants

Last Week's Record:  8-6

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  73-63

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($25)

Year to Date Winnings (Losses):  ($485)

Picks of the Week

So, last week was HORRRRRRRIBLE.  I prefaced the column last week by saying that I did not pay attention at all to the preseason.  Perhaps I should have.  Not perhaps, I definitely should have.  It definitely would and could not have made last week's pics worse.  Believe me.  But, seriously, who had the Browns looking THAT bad.  Who had Cincinnati outgaining Seattle by over 200 yards? Seriously.  Well, hopefully I learned some things from last week, but am not going to super overreact to outcomes that were outside of the norm.  We shall see.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Carolina Panthers -6 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Never take the visiting team on a short week.  It didn't pan out this week, but it does over 70% of the time.

Arizona Cardinals +13 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
There are a lot of competing rules at play in this game. Never take a west coast team travelling east and playing the early game.  And yes, I know that Arizona isn't "west coast", but they do not follow daylight savings time so they are in the Pacific time zone currently (technically Mountain Standard Time).  Bur, it is hard to cover a double digit spread, especially when it is basically two touchdowns.  So, I have a bid decision to make.  Baltimore will win, but not cover.  Arizona played a lot better in the fourth quarter last week, so I am going to say they are progressing a bit enough to keep this close. If they give David Johnson enough touches, they could keep the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands enough to keep this within the spread.

Cincinnati Bengals -1 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers
Two teams that have really yet to define themselves, but things look OK for both as of  now.  As stated earlier, Cincinnati lost to Seattle, but outgained them by 200+ yards.  San Francisco won last week, but it was over an underwhelming Tampa Bay squad.  The west coast travelling east rule also applies, so I will take the Bengals.

Detroit Lions +2 v. Los Angeles Chargers
Both teams are coming off an overtime game last week, and were both underwhelming.  The Chargers pulled out a victory over Indianapolis Colts, while the Lions ended last week tied with the Arizona Cardinals.  Extra game time, plus the west travelling east, plus a road favorite gives me all the reason I need to select the Lions.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Green Bay Packers
Selecting Green Bay after their defeat over the Chicago Bears last week would be the highest of overreactions, I think.  Green Bay actually did not look good in that win offensively, and Dalvin Cook is way more explosive than any single Chicago Bear.  I will take points in a divisional rivalry.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 8 1/2 at Houston Texans
The Texans looked absolutely great in last week's loss to New Orleans Saints, falling just to a last minute drive by Drew Brees (go figure).  And yes, the Jaguars are playing a rookie quarterback, but Gardner Minshew II looked good last week, and if this Jaguars defense plays the way they are supposed to play, this game could be a touchdown difference.

New England Patriots -19 at Miami Dolphins
Honestly, this spread is absolutely ridiculous, and taking a road double digit favorite in an intra-divisional game is preposterous and the height of overreacting to last week's Patriot win and Dolphins loss.  This spread is so ridiculous I am going to take it.

New York Giants +2 v. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo was underwhelming in its 17-16 defeat over the New York Jets while the Giants were soundly defeated by the Cowboys last week.  I feel the Bills will have a difficult time corralling Saquon Barkley (who doesn't).  The fact that the Giants are getting points at home means I will take them.

Pittsburgh Steelers -4 v. Seattle Seahawks
The Steelers lost and looked bad.  The Seahawks won, but looked worse.  Pacific team travelling east and playing the early game means I take the Steelers and hope their offense shows some life this week.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Indianapolis Colts
This game is essentially a pick 'em among teams that surprised last week.  We are not sure if last week was an anomaly for one or both of the teams, but this is one way to find out. I will take the home team.

Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.

Denver Broncos +2 1/2 v. Chicago Bears
This game is incredibly important for both teams if they have their minds set on making the playoffs.  Only 12% of the teams that have started 0-2 have qualified for the playoffs, and both teams enter this game after week 1 losses.  I will take the points at home, and hope that if my beloved Bears do win and I lose this bet, I can still be happy.

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Oakland Raiders
So the Raiders absolutely surprised everybody last week defeating the Broncos.  But, Pat Mahomes is not Joe Flacco.

New Orleans Saints +3 at Los Angeles Rams
I love that the Saints are getting points here.  The Rams haven't quite looked the same in about 4 or 5 games (dating back to last year).

Philadelphia Eagles -1 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons
Philadelphia has won 4 in a row against the Falcons. Given that the spread is so low, I will take the better team on a hot streak.

New York Jets +6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns
Nobody, and I mean nobody wants to watch this game.  On paper, the Browns should beat the Jets, and that was before Sam Darnold contracted mononucleosis.  Trevor Siemian does have an over-.500 record as a starting quarterback in the NFL, so it isn't like he is being randomly thrust into a game.  Cleveland looked awful last week. I don't expect them to look that bad, or commit 18 penalties, but I am not sure they are ready to be a touchdown favorite either.

Big Bet
Dallas Cowboys -6 at Washington Racists
I hate road favorites, especially if they are intradivisional rivals, but in this case, I am not sure where Washington is going to find the offense, I mean, besides their mascot.
Picking a road favorite of any kind is against everything I believe in, but, this line is the one I like the most, so I have to take it given the shellacking I took last week.

Last Week's Record: 4-12
Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0
Year-to-Date Record:  4-12
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-0
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($770)
Year-to-Date's Winnings (Losses): ($770)