Picks of the Week

 

After two great weeks in a row, last week did me in.  A big negative salvaged only by virtue of winning the Big Bet, which continues to be my saving grace in this NFL season.  If I could figure out Arizona, well then that would be something!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Cooper Kupp back; Puka Nacua returns; and the home team on a short week.  Easy call, even with Minnesota playing really well.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Yes, this Browns team is a dumpster fire.  Jameis Winston could give them some fire offensively and Nick Chubb has a game under his belt.  And to top it off, Baltimore played Monday night.

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Good win in London on Sunday, but now the Jaguars face a 5-2 Packers team that didn't have to travel home from the United Kingdom.

Tennessee Titans +11 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Yes the Lions are really good, especially on offense where they are 4th in rushing, 3rd in scoring and passing, and 2nd in total offense.  But Tennessee is equally amazing on defense as they rank 1st overally, 3rd in passing defense and 7th in rushing defense.  Mason Rudolph also doesn't make the stupid turnovers that Will Levis made.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons

Two gambling rules at odds in this one (see what I did there?).  Tampa is on a short week, but Atlanta is the road favorite in an intra-divisional game.  Tamps looked pretty good at times against Baltimore, and has looked great at times this year.  Wide Receiver injuries hurt, but I will assume somebody will be able to catch the ball (Cade Otton, Richard White).

New England Patrionts +7 v. New York Jets

This fame sucks, and it sucks to try to bet.  I am just taking points here, and nothing else.

Miami Dolphins +4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played Monday night, and they have to travel east?  Plus, Tuanigaminuolepola Tagavailoa returns to spark the Dolphins offense?  And I get points?  Yes please.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Mpore of a gut feeling than anything, but Cincinnati just seem to be playing better than Philadelphia, even with their 3-4 record, whereas the Eagles haven't really looked great.

Chicago Bears +1 at Washington Commanders

I would really liked to have seen this game with Jayden Daniels starting.  Mariota is a solid veteran, but not as dynamic as Daniels, and Washingotn will need that dynamism against this Bears defense.  Damn, they just announced that Daniels is playing, and I am too lazy to change the pick.  I'll just take whatever additional 1/2 or full point is added before kickoff.

Los Angeles Chargers -7 v. New Orleans Saints

Too many injuries for New Orleans, even with the extra days rest from playing last Thursday.

Buffalo Bills -3 at Seattle Seahawks

The NFL's 5th highest scoring offense addes Amari Cooper with a full-practice week, so I will take Buffalo in what I expect to be a shootout.

Kansas City Chiefs -8 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

The Cheifs have been very underwhelming for an undefeated team, but that won't stop them from becoming very scary once DeAndre Hopkins works his way into this offense.  I don't expect much from him today, but the Raiders defense might!

Carolina Panthers +11 1/2 at Denver Broncos

I just really hate giving up double digits in an NFL game.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Yes, Jordan Mason is returning, but Ricky Pearsall is the healthiest receiver on San Francisco, AND HE GOT SHOT!

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. New York Giants

Russell Wilson brings some stability to the Steelers (if not more talent than Fields), and the Giants are not very good.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor returns so that should ease some pressure off of Anthony Richardson, but Houston's 4th-ranked pass defense will not.

I don't like giving up points for a Big Bet, but Houston at least is at home.  I didn't like any of these games for a guarantee.

Record

Last Week's Record:  6-9

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  52-49-6

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 6-1 

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($240)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $545

Picks of the Week

Lots and lots of injuries.  Burrow - out; Mark Andrews - out; DeShaun Watson - out.  And that is just in the NFC North.  Last week hurt a lot for a lot of teams, and for your boy, who had an OK week (I lied - a really good week), but not good considering the previous week was 11-3!  (Did I mention I went 11-3 two weeks ago?)  Anyway, this could be worse - like Florida State losing their quarterback, making it a serious question mark for them to make the playoffs this year, given they have a rivalry game and a conference championship game coming up.  But, that is college, and that is in the future.  This is for today - and it is the N F L!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Home team, short week, tie.  Ugh!

Chicago Bears +7 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Detroit wins this game, but it is the first game this season in which the Bears will be starting their entire starting offensive line.  That's right - it happened in Week 11.  Plus, with their starting running back - Khalil Herbert - and their starting quarterback - Justin Fields - back, this game seems ripe for a backdoor cover because Fields scrambles right for 30 yards on a two-minute drive to lose 31 - 24.

 

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

If you watch these teams, you definitely know Jacksonville is better, but, if you look at the statistics, they are remarkably similar.  What does that mean to me?  Taking almost a touchdown seems to be the play because this game should be close.

Green Bay Packers +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

If this game was being played in the 4:00 slot, I might bet differently, but, west coast teams traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot usually lose.  Except, Green Bay is central, so that is minimized.  What isn't minimized is the Chargers horrific defense - 32nd overall and 32nd in pass defense.  There are only 32 teams in the league.  Green Bay may not win, but they should cover.

Washington Commanders -8 1/2 v. New York Giants

This looks like a huge number given that Washington is 4-6.  But, the Giants offense is last the NFL is scoring, passing and total offense and the defense is not much better at 20th in scoring, 24th in rushing, 21st in passing, and 27th in total defense.  Washingotn's defense is not much better, but their offense is way, way better as Sam Howell has thrown for more yards than any other quarterback in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This line is ridiculously hard to predict.  First, the Raiders have played spirited ball under Interim Head Coach Antonio Pearce.  But, they are a west-coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot.  So, against my own better judgment, I will lay the 2 touchdowns and hope the track team returns with Achane back.

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Cleveland Browns

In a game that is likely to end 2-0; I will take the points.  

Dallas Cowboys - 10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

No offense in the NFL is clicking as well as the Cowboys, and to top that off they have the 2nd best total defense, the 2nd best passing defense, and the 4th best scoring defense.

San Francisco 49ers -13 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It seems like the bye week did San Francisco well.

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Los Angeles Rams

Both teams are remarkably similar on paper, with the Seahawks a little worse on defense.  But, I would take the points in this game no matter which team was reciving them, as it should be close.

New York Jets +8 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills are certainly not clikcing right now, and on top of that, this is a short week for them coming off their defeat Monday night at the hands of the Broncos.  I'll take more than a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

In a game that should be close, I will take the points, especially since Denver, like Buffalo above, is coming off a short week.  No Justin Jeffereson makes this harder for Minnesota, but the game should still be close.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid is 26-6 coming off a bye week (19-3 in the regular season).  And, he gets this game at home.  The Eagles are actually playing better this year, but nobody prepares his team better than Reid.  He is the Tom Izzo of the NFL.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons; Indianapolis Colts; New England Patriots; New Orleans Saints

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Houston Texans should win this game easily, even with the return of Kyler Murray.  The one thing Arizona does moderately well is run the ball (9th in the NFL), and Houston is 8th in rushing defense.  Somewhat negating that "strength", Housston should win easily.  I wanted to consider Dallas, but tehy are on the road.  Same with Seattle.  San Francisco just giving up too many points.

Last Week's Record:  8-4-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  83-58-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $510

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,160  

Picks of the Week

 

Finished in the black, albeit just a little last week, but I will take it.  I am travelling today, so no analysis, just picks.

Washington Commanders -5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Miami Dolphins -12 1/2 v. New York Giants 

New Orleans Saints +1 1/2 at New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Detroit Lions -9 v. Carolina Panthers

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Tenneessee Titans -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Los Angeles Rams +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs - 3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

 

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Awful game, I am just taking the points.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I don't really like this pick, but the other two games I considered, Baltimore and Kansas City, are road favorites, so they are giving points.

Last Week's Record:  9-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  34-26-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $75

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $510