Picks of the Week - NFL Week 15

 

Finally, a week like it should be.  Easily in the black and looking to get a streak going. Perhaps I am figuring this season out - if a bit late - as I have finished in the Top 4 in my confidence league each of the past two weeks as well.  Typing that is likely my kiss of death. 

A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250.  All losses incur a vig of 10%.  On to the picks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 v. Atlanta Falcons

Tampa had better be angry after losing - AT HOME - to the New Orleans Saints last week.  Plus, Atlanta has lost 7 of 8, and the Buccaneers are home on a short week.

Cleveland Browns +7 1/2 at Chicago Bears

Chicago has a tendency to play close games, so the line feels a little large here to me.  Despite giving up hardly any yards (2nd in Total Defense; 1st in Passing Defense), the Browns give up a surprising amount of points (23.2 - good for 17th), but not enough to be blown out.

New York Giants -2 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Only because the Giants are coming off their bye week, so they might be rested a bit.  Otherwise I hate giving points in an intra-divisional game.

Philadelphia Eagles -11 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Yes this is a lot of points, but the Eagles offense actually showed some life offensively last week against the Chargers, with Saquon Barkley rushing for 122, and A.J. Brown receiving for 100.  If not for 4 interceptions and a ton of fumbles, Philly runs away with that game.  The problem for me is that was Monday, making this a short week, but then again, the Raiders are a Pacific time zone team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot, so that is a wash.  Eagles by 3 touchdowns.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

Houston Texans -9 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

The Cardinals are bad, and imagine what could happen if Houston had just a modicum of a running game, instead of being 23rd in the league?

New England Patriots +1 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

New England stunned Buffalo in Buffalo back in Week 5, in the second game of its 10-game winning streak.  Now the Patriots are getting points at home.  Yes, please!

Jacksonville Jaguars -11 1/2 v. New York Jets

This is a whole lot of points, but the Jaguars are 9th in scoring in the league and have the number 1 rush defense in the entire NFL.  The Jets have the 26th scoring defense in the NFL, so this game could get ugly early.

Kansas City Chiefs -4 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers are clearly the better team, however, they are on a short week.  And Justin Herbert looked extremely limited with his broken left hand trying to heal.  If the Eagles didn't turn the ball over 1,432 times on Monday, that game would not have been close.

Seattle Seahawks -13 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

This is a HUGE number, but I do have to try to take into account not just the physical loss of Daniel Jones at Quarterback, but also the emotional toll on the team.  I could easily see the Colts slipping out of the playoffs altogether, and this last quarter of the season being UGLYYYYY.

Tennessee Titans +12 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

I am not taking two double-digit favorites in a row, especially after already taking the Jaguars and Eagles as double-digit favorites. The Titans scored more than enough to defeat the difficult Browns defense, and could easily keep this to a 9 or 10 point game.

Green Bay Packers -2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

This Broncos offense stinks.  Technically they are in the statistical middle in almost every category, but man they are not fun to watch and not explosive.  Not sure they can score enough to keep up with the Packers, especially with Josh Jacobs back.

New Orleans Saints +2 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

I always like getting points at home in an intra-divisional game, and wouldn't it be something if the Saints defeated Tampa Bay and Carolina on consecutive weeks when those to teams are locked in a heated battle for the divisional title?

Detroit Lions +5 1/2 at Los Angeles Rams

Two really good teams, and they both can score in bunches - and quickly.  In that case, I will take points.

Dallas Cowboys -6 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys were handled by the Lions last week, but that doesn't stop me from buying them for six points against a Minnesota team that is wildly inconsistent, especially when it comes to quarterback play.  I would have thought this line might be 3 1/2 or 4 after Minnesota's 31-0 clocking of the Washington Commanders, but I am going to have to live with giving the extra points.

Miami Dolphins +3 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Dolphins are statistically better offensively and defensively than the Steelers, and this pick is largely made by the fact that Devon Achane has an additional day to heal his ribs.  I might re-visit this pick if his playing status changes before now and then.  The Dolphins are also hot, having won 4 in a row and 5 of their last 6.  

BIG BET OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

Two horrible defenses (32nd v. 23rd), but Cincinnati is going in the right direction since the return of Joe Burrow whereas Lamar just doesn't look like Lamar.  Plus, getting points at home in an intra-divisional game.

In Joe Burrow we trust!!!  He has even given Chase Brown some life as a primary running back.  Hit, some.  Love getting points at home, though!

Last Week Record: 8-5-1

Last Week Big Bet: 1-0

Year-to-Date Record: 99-107-2

Year-to-Date Big Bet: 4-10

Last Week Winnings (Losses): $400

Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($2,920) 

Picks of the Week

 

Winning record but lost money, thanks to the fact I forgot George Pickens wasn't playing.  Won't make that mistake today.  Thursday pick looked great for the first half, then the Chargers came to life.  Oh well.  Two Saturday games - let's get after it.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Denver +2 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

Like I typed earlier, first half looked great.

Houston Texans +3 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, the away team on a short week.  Houston's defense is on a heater - moving up to 6th in total defense and 9th in scoring defense, and Kansas City, even though they win, don't blow anyone out.

Baltimore Ravens -7 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

The aforementioned George Pickens loss makes Pittsburgh's offense really stagnant.

Detroit Lions -6 1/2 at Chicago Bears

The Bears snuck up on Detroit on Thanksgiving.  They will not do that this week.

Cincinnati Bengals -9 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Dorian Thompon-Robinson?  And Cincinnati has the 5th highest scoring offense in the NFL, going against the 26th ranked scoring defense.

 

Atlanta Falcons -9 v. New York Giants

I ordinarily hate picking a team starting a QB for his first ever NFL start, but Penix might just be what Atlanta needs after Kirk Cousins squandered a 6-3 start.  Plus, it's the Drew Lock-led New York GIants, and his 54.6 rating.

Indianapolis Colts -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

Will Levis is officially looking over his shoulder; and a nervous Will Levis is a bad Will Levis.

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Road favorites in an intradivisional matchup are difficult picks, but not when that team is among the best in the NFL right now.  Philadelphia are 4th in total offense (1st in rushing) and 1st in total defense 1st in passing and scoring).

Los Angeles Rams -3 at New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers' destruction of a New York institution is almost complete.

Minnesota Vikings -3 at Seattle Seahawks

I might as well just keep picking road favorites!  How can that hurt?

New England Patriots +14 at Buffalo Bills

Only because the spread is two touchdowns.  Likely would have taken Buffalo if it was 10, maybe even 11.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Long live the Mac Jones Era!!!

San Francisco 49ers -1 at Miami Dolphins

Looks like the Dolphins will be without Jaylen Waddle AND Tyreek Hill.  I reserve the right to change this before game time if Hill plays.

Dallas Cowboys +4 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay is playing like not only will they deserve to be in the playoffs, but they could make some noise.  But, Dallas has been playing a lot better recently, and if not for a weird blocked punt, muff for a Cincinnati first down, could be on a four-game winning streak.

New Orleans Saints +14 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

Look, do I think that New Orleans will win? No.  Do I think New Orleans will keep this close?  Also no. But 14 1/2 is a lot of points to give up in an NFL game.

Big Bet:

Carolina Panthers +5 v. Arizona Cardinals

Carolina has not been bad since November, defeating the Saints and Giants, losing to the Chiefs by 3, to the Buccaneers by 3, to the Eagles by 6, but then being hammered by the Cowboys last week.  They have enough of a team to keep this close.

Because it seems so crazy, I will take Carolina.  For most of my other choices they were either giving points, or on the road (or both?!), so I will take the points in a home game and hope for the best.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  109-106-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-7

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($35)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($715)

Picks of the Week

Slightly in the black (now a 3-week winning streak), and that is how we have to chip away at the deficit.  All 16 teams in action this week, so some room to really move up (or down!).

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams +3 at San Francisco

Glad I picked it, but boy was this game brutal.

Dallas Cowboys -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

This game is really difficult to pick because this Cowboy team could either come out firing because of the tragic way this team lost on Monday night (blocked punt fumble recovered by Cincinnati for a first down), or just pack the season away.  I would ordinarily think the latter given no real chance at the playoffs for them, except Carolina is worst against the run in the entire NFL and Rico Dowdle has show some spark running.

Cleveland Browns +4 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

I haven't had a strong feeling about a back-door cover in a long time, but the facts that this Chiefs defense is really good, but that somehow they generally play really close games.  Perhaps a late Jameis Winston TD to lose 24-20.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Houston Texans

Nico Collins being back is a game-changer, but the team - other than the Dallas game - has not been as dominating as it should be.  I think last week we finally got to see the true Tyreek Hill after a long drought (10-115-1).

Washington Commanders -7 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

What is a Jake Haener?

 

Cincinnati Bengals -5 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

I should pick Tennessee here because they have the #1 ranked defense against the pass (and second overall) and because Cincinnati played Monday night - but that just isn't how I see it.  Burrow throws for close to 300 and Cincinnati cruises.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 1/2 v. New York Jets

We are just weeks away from Aaron Rodgers joining the leadership of the Department of Health and Human Services, and we expect him to care about the Jaguars?  Also, Mac Jones has historically played really well against the Jets.

New York Giants +16 1/2 v. Baltimore Ravens

It is almost absurd that an NFL team is giving 16 1/2 points while at home, and I still seriously considered taking the Ravens.

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?

Denver Broncos -4 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson's QB Rating is 64.3, primarily because his completion percentage is 47.44%.

Buffalo Bills +2 1/2 at Detroit Lions

The two best teams in the league right now, so I will take the points.  That is all I am basing this pick on.  Getting points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is essentially a playoff game, as both teams are in playoff contention, and like the Bills pick above, I will take the points.  Plus, we do not know what we might get out of an injured Justin Herbert today.

Arizona Cardinals -6 v. New England Patriots

Arizona is just one of those teams that play great when you don't expect them to, and they play bad when you expect them to play well.  I don't know, so I'll just expect them to win here, and I hope they cover.

Seattle Seahawks +2 1/5 v. Green Bay Packers

Seattle recently defeated Aaron Rodgers, so now I expect them to take out his former team.  Honestly, I think this Seattle team is way better than most people think, and they are getting points at home.  I'll take it.

Minnesota Vikings -7 v. Chicago Bears

Yes, the Bears have played the NFC Central extremely close, having recently covered against the Vikings at home.  This isn't the same as the Bears have fired Matt Eberflus and the team looked absent last week.  Vikings at home.

Atlanta Falcons -5 1/2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Desmond Ridder will feature prominently, and not for the Falcons.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers +5 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

I honestly think Pittsburgh could win this outright, so why wouldn't I take the Eagles?

I would like this better if Pittsburgh at home, even though the spread then woul dbe like 3 or 2 1/2, but I still like this pick.  Two of the best total defenses in the NFL (Philly 1; Pittsburgh 5), but unless the Eagles get more balance on offense (1st in rushing, 31st in passing), then Pittsburgh's defense can just key on Barkley.  No George Pickens hurts, but likely not that much as Wilson likes to spread things around anyway.

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-4-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  100-99-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date: 8-6

Last Week's Winnings (Losses): 95

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): ($685)

Picks of the Week

Got absolutely hammered last week, and not only that - lost the big bet too!!!  Definite correction from this year, but hopefull prepping for the Saturday games gives me time to process the Sunday/Monday games, and really hit a bounce-back week.  It started well Thursday night.

It is Week 15, so good luck to everyone in your Fantasy Football playoffs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I still hate this pick, even after the Raiders 63-21 victory, but glad I made it!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

This is a tough game to pick, because most of the yearly stats are irrelevant due to Jake Browning and Nick Mullens being the starters.  This is more worrisome for Minnesota, as they had the 8th best passing offense in the NFL.  The return of Justin Jefferson absolutely helps Nick Mullens, but Jake Browning seemed pretty settled in last week.  Plus - home team/short week.

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

How can two teams have the exact same, above-.500 record, and yet be so diametrically opposed?  Pittsburgh going downhill, fast.  And on a short week - I'll take the home team (I know, shocking, right?!)

Detroit Lions -5 v. Denver Broncos

I talked to some of the world's leading minds - including several actuaries - and nobody can explain this year's Denver Broncos.  Apparently they have the best defense in the NFL since their annihilation at the hands of the Dolphins (70-20 for those that forgot), but that still only gives them the 22nd best scoring defense, 24th best passing defense, and 32nd ranked rushing and total defense.  Crazily enough, they do have the 2nd best 3rd down percentage defense.  The Lions offense is just the opposite (3rd in total offense; 5th in rushing; 7th in passing and scoring).  Plus, they are at home, and just look ... better.  Disregard the Bears loss because they Bears just play them tough in general.  Sometimes it IS about matchups.

Chicago Bears +3 at Cleveland Browns

The Bears have played tough in November and December, and look to keep that up against a Joe Flacco-led offense whose primary dimension - running the ball - plays into the Bears 2nd-ranked rushing defense.

New England Patriots +8 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The struggling Chiefs head to New England to play a team that hasn't lost by more than this spread line since week 8.  It is supposed to be rainy and windy in Foxboro.

New York Jets +8 v. Miami Dolphins

Won't the real Zach Wilson please stand up, please stand up.  Honestly, this pick is less about Wilson, and more about the fact that a LOT of key Dolphins could miss this game, including several lineman and Tyreek Hill.  Plus, the Dolphins played Monday night.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

New York Giants +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

And, speaking of ... If any team can prepare for Tommy DeVito at QB, it is the New Orleans Saints, who basically have their own DeVito in Taysom Hill.  But, New Orleans' defense is 26th against the rush, so we should see a healthy dose of Saquan Barkley, or, at least enough to keep this close.  I hate this pick because the Giants also played Monday night.  Ugh!

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers

The Chicago Bears' dream of back-to-back overall number 1 picks is still alive-and-kicking thanks to the dreadul Panthers offense (30th in scoring; 30th in total offense; 31st in passing offense).  The Panthers D is great against the pass (3rd), but part of that is teams are easily head and run the ball almost exclusively late (22nd rush defense).  Since Atlanta has found Bijan Robinson, I look for a healthy dose of running the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

As of now, it looks like Aaron Jones will return for the Packers, and even with Jones I expect this to be a close game.  If he cannot return, or if he is limited by his injury, and with Christian Watson out - Tampa should cover on the road.  Plus Green Bay played Monday night, and I already picked 2 teams from Monday Night even though it is a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -12 at Arizona Cardinals

So, picking San Francisco as an intradivisional double-digit favorite last week hurt me, but even then they actually beat Seattle by 12, and Seattle is a much better tean than Arizona, which is 27th in scoring and 24th in total defense.

Los Angeles Rams -6 at Washington Commanders

At least the Rams get the 4:00 time slot coming from the west coast.  Anybody wonder if the Commanders defense is missing Montez Sweat and Chase Young yet?

Dallas Cowboys +2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Even though Buffalo beat the Chiefs last week, they are still 2-3 in their last 5 games.  On paper this is a close game with Dallas and Buffalo 1st and 5th in scoring; and 4th and 6th, respectively, in scoring defense.  In close games I take the points.  Also, this game is not going to be as close as on paper.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is a solid playoff team, but, they just look like they are missing a little something when watching them play (like a Trevor Lawrence connection with Calvin Ridley).  Hopefully they get that back before the playoffs to make the AFC a bit more exciting.  But for now, they host the Ravens who have won 3 in a row and 7 of their last 8.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is led by Drew Lock, who will not be enough to overcome the damage Philadelphia's offense is going to do to the 26th ranked scoring defense in the NFL (and 28th in total defense).

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

Tennessee gets the Big Bet because they are home - and most of my other favorite picks are on the road.  Plus, just last week they beat the vaunted Dolphins offense by holding Miami to only 27.

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  112-86-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($865)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,635