Picks of the Week

 

Last week's results were almost the exact opposite as the previous week.  Two weeks ago with 5 to 10 munutes left in the 1:00 games I was basically 9-1, and with a lot of scores changing the outcome in the early games, I lost money.  This week at the 1:00 juncture with a quarter left, I was 1-2, and losing 5 of 6 games.  Thank god for the turnaround as a few games switched, and a strong finish in the p.m. games and on Monday led to a winning record.  Can you say STREAK?!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns -7 v. New York Jets

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!  Long live Joe Flacco!  I bet the Jets wish they had a veteran like him!

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I initially picked Detroit, and I really, really want to take Detroit here - especially at this number - but this game is also a short week game, so I changed my mind.  Both of these teams are solid to great on both sides of the ball.  The slightest kink in each's armor:  Detroit is 23rd in passing defense going against Dallas' 6th ranked pass offense; Dallas in 19th in rushing defense going against Detroit's 3rd ranked run game.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

This Chicago Bears team is a couple of mismanaged end-of-game coaching from having won 7-in-a row.  I am not saying the deserved to win all of those games, nor would they have if not for poor coaching, but just saying this team is way closer than people think.  If they manage Carolina's first overall pick well, i.e. trading back even 5 to 9 spots for an appropriate package (or even better, trading to 2 or 3, then trading back again!), and they select well in this year's draft (plus extra firsts in 2025 and 2026), they could be set for awhile!

Miami Dolphins +3 at Baltimore Ravens

Both teams played great against good opponents last week, Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore dismantling San Francisco.  I feel that if one of the teams is going to suffer a letdown this week it might be the Ravens, but only because they are playing on a short week, whereas the Dolphins have their regular 7-days between games.  So, this paragraph is what I wrote on Saturday, when I first published this week's picks.  But, my actual pick, when thinking about this and deciding Miami just might be too banged up to deal with Baltimore, my official pick is ...

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

So, I lost an extra half-point by changing my mind, but so be it.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans

Houston, fighting for a playoff spot - and evening a divisional championship - have C.J. Stroud back!

New England +14 at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo wins this game, but most of their games have been close.  New England's last few games have been (L7, L10, W3, L6, L3, L4, L4, L3) in the last eight weeks.  This game should be easily within 2 touchdowns.

New York Giants +6 v. Los Angeles Rams

I am torn between two betting rules here:  The Rams are a west coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot (disadvantge) versus the Giants who are playing on a short week (disadvantage).  I will take the Giants because they are getting points, and because Tyrod Taylor is the professional quarterback that can at least keep them settled.

Washington Commanders +13 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Is it bad that I want to select Washington here?  San Francisco is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot AND they are playing on a short week.  I suppose I can just hope Washington can keep it close AND they have been playing much better when Jacoby Brissett has been behind center, which he will do from the start Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles -12 v. Arizona Cardinals

So Philadelphia is playing on a short week, but sometimes a short-week team covers.  This week it will be Philadelphia, as Arizona is hoping for Carolina's third loss to aid them in their quest for the first overall pick, and the subsequent trade haul it could garner from team's that need a QB.  See Bears, Chicago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

Carolina Panthers +4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is missing his first NFL game due to an injury, and although C.J. Beatherd is a legitimate NFL backup and won't panic in the pocket, the Panthers have been playing well, losing by 3 to the Packers last week, defeating the Falcons the week prior, and losing to the Buccaneers by 3 two weeks before that.  Closer than it should be, and Carolina at least covers, if not wins outright.

Indianapolis Colts -4 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Antonio Pearce has the Raiders playing inspired football lately, but they suffer from the double-whammy of traveling to the Eastern time zone to play in the 1:00 time slot AND they are on a short week.  That might just be too much to overcome.  Gardner Minshew is also hunting for the AFC South title.  Sorry, I just made every Jaguar fan cringe!

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Too bad for Rudolp (Mason) that Christmas is over.  We can all go back to mocking him and not letting him play reindeer games.  (Or at least I hope!)

Las Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Dysfunction, dysfunction, dysfunction - and this has nothing to do with Jarret Stidham.  Even if some of the roster are anti-Russell Wilson, they are not anti-administration screwing with players and the players' money.  I am not talking about benching him for 2 games to protect an off-season trade from injury; I am talking about the revelation that the Broncos came to Wilson after the Broncos defeated the Chiefs and told him to renegotiate his contract downward or he would be benched BACK THEN!

Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know that Joe Burrow and most likely J'Marr Chase are not playing.  But, Jake Browning has been playing well (a 98.5 rating compared to Patrick Mahomes' 91.7), and the Chiefs have not been playing that well.  Plus, they are on a short week.  I'll take almost a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Green Bay Packers

A one-point spread in what is basically a playoff elimination game for the loser of this divisional rivalry.  Lots to digest in this game, as Jaren Hall will be making the start over Nick Mullens, who moved the ball well, but just turned it over too much.  Hall was 8/10 for 101 yards in his first game this year, so there is potentail, especially given his talented skill position players, including Justin Jefferson and Ty Chandler.  Chandler could feast against the NFL's 30th ranked run defense.  And speaking of the Packers' defense, star cornerback Jaire Alexander is suspended and will not dress for talking the field as a captain last week when he was not a captain, and then electing to defend instead of defer when Green Bay won the toss.  He was lucky that the coaching staff had previously expressed to the officials they would defer if they won the toss, so the officials bailed out Alexander, otherwise we could have seen a game where Carolina received the ball with the opening kickoff IN BOTH HALVES!

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

I am riding with team Baker on this one.  I do like Houston, New England, and Chicago here, but I am taking Tampa Bay.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  128-98-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $185

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,585

Picks of the Week

 

Pathetically average week, but losing the Big Bet hurts a lot!  Try to turn this around this week, with a good start on Thursday!  Merry Christmas everyone, and good luck betting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I know that I am going against the above adage - home team on a short week, but the Bengals have been cruising under Jake Browning.  But, could it be stupid to bet against Rudolph (Mason) on Christmas weekend?!

Buffalo Bills -12 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is absolutely ridiculous!  I mean, I get why it is this high - what is an Easton Stick anyway? - but why am I picking it?  Gut feeling, and the Chargers have among the worst defenses in the NFL (30th overall, 28th scoring, 30th passing yards)  Calling Stefon Diggs!

Chicago Bears -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Chicago took the league's best defense down to the wire, and if not for a dropped TD on the final Hail Mary, would have beat them. Arizona's is nowehere near the level of the Browns (26th overall, 31st rushing, 31st scoring), but Chicago's defense may be close to that level now.

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle coming off an emotional upset win on Monday night, are ripe for an upset, especially since they are playing on a short week.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta's defense is playing very well this year (9th in total defense), and they were starting to use Bijan Robinson a bit, and then last week's loss to the horrendous Panthers happened.  And, Gardner Minshew is ripe to take this team to the playoffs, especially with Jonathan Taylor back.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Houston Texans

Case Keenum is a legitimate NFL quarterback, and is not going to be scared by being on the field.  The problem for him is that Cleveland's defense just runs through everyone.  And, Joe Flacco is still a legit NFL quarterback as well.  He might get sacked a few more times than normal, but he will fling it around the field.

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

Washington Commanders +3 at New York Jets 

I don't like this line one bit.  I actually wrote it selecting Washington, and picking New York.  Either way, I don't like it.  But, I really don't Trevor Siemian.

Detroit Lions -3 at Minnesota Vikings

This Lions offense is really potent (3rd overall, 4th passing, 2nd rushing, 5th scoring), and although Nick Mullens can play, Detroit is within range of home-field advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is in the midst of a three-game slump, and even with Trevor Lawrence being out of concussion protocol, their 25th ranked defense (overall/29th passing and 21st scoring) may have its collective hands full with a team that has won 3 games in a row scoring 34, 29, and 21 in those wins.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I honestly think that the Cowboys are going to win this game.  But ... I cannot pick 3 visiting teams on short weeks, and I already picked Cincinnati and Buffalo.

New England Patriots +7 at Denver Broncos

New England has played teams tough, losing by 10 last week to Kansas City.  Denver is not Kansas City.  I don't think Denver can score enough points to cover this spread against the Patriots defense (8th total, 2nd in rushing defense).

Las Vegas Raiders +10 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

There is no way Las Vegas is as good as their 63-point outburst last week, but they just may be good enough to cover a double digit spread against a team that has been struggling a bit in the past month or so.

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 1/2 v. New York Giants

A double-digit spread against an intra-divisional rival is almost always an automatic no-no (see Raiders above).  But, this is where the Tommy DeVito experience comes crashing to the ground like a feast of sleeping with 7 fishes.

Baltimore Ravens +6 at San Francisco 49ers

I just think that this game is going to be incredibly close.  Because of that, I'll take the points.  But, Nick Bosa might have the best game of any edge rusher ever.  I am assuming that he is going to be extra motivated (IYKYK) against the one team in the NFL with an all-black quarterback room (3 QBs, OC, QB coach).  Baltimore still keeps it close.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

I hate picking visiting teams giving points as my big bet, but there are not a lot of other choices out there.  I thought about the Browns, but they are in the same situation as the Packers being on the road giving up points.  The Colts and Raiders were also on my radar.  I am just hoping that Aaron Jones comes back from injury and has a terrific game (as I need him for fantasy too!)

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  119-93-12

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,400

Picks of the Week

Got absolutely hammered last week, and not only that - lost the big bet too!!!  Definite correction from this year, but hopefull prepping for the Saturday games gives me time to process the Sunday/Monday games, and really hit a bounce-back week.  It started well Thursday night.

It is Week 15, so good luck to everyone in your Fantasy Football playoffs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

I still hate this pick, even after the Raiders 63-21 victory, but glad I made it!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Minnesota Vikings

This is a tough game to pick, because most of the yearly stats are irrelevant due to Jake Browning and Nick Mullens being the starters.  This is more worrisome for Minnesota, as they had the 8th best passing offense in the NFL.  The return of Justin Jefferson absolutely helps Nick Mullens, but Jake Browning seemed pretty settled in last week.  Plus - home team/short week.

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

How can two teams have the exact same, above-.500 record, and yet be so diametrically opposed?  Pittsburgh going downhill, fast.  And on a short week - I'll take the home team (I know, shocking, right?!)

Detroit Lions -5 v. Denver Broncos

I talked to some of the world's leading minds - including several actuaries - and nobody can explain this year's Denver Broncos.  Apparently they have the best defense in the NFL since their annihilation at the hands of the Dolphins (70-20 for those that forgot), but that still only gives them the 22nd best scoring defense, 24th best passing defense, and 32nd ranked rushing and total defense.  Crazily enough, they do have the 2nd best 3rd down percentage defense.  The Lions offense is just the opposite (3rd in total offense; 5th in rushing; 7th in passing and scoring).  Plus, they are at home, and just look ... better.  Disregard the Bears loss because they Bears just play them tough in general.  Sometimes it IS about matchups.

Chicago Bears +3 at Cleveland Browns

The Bears have played tough in November and December, and look to keep that up against a Joe Flacco-led offense whose primary dimension - running the ball - plays into the Bears 2nd-ranked rushing defense.

New England Patriots +8 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The struggling Chiefs head to New England to play a team that hasn't lost by more than this spread line since week 8.  It is supposed to be rainy and windy in Foxboro.

New York Jets +8 v. Miami Dolphins

Won't the real Zach Wilson please stand up, please stand up.  Honestly, this pick is less about Wilson, and more about the fact that a LOT of key Dolphins could miss this game, including several lineman and Tyreek Hill.  Plus, the Dolphins played Monday night.

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

New York Giants +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

And, speaking of ... If any team can prepare for Tommy DeVito at QB, it is the New Orleans Saints, who basically have their own DeVito in Taysom Hill.  But, New Orleans' defense is 26th against the rush, so we should see a healthy dose of Saquan Barkley, or, at least enough to keep this close.  I hate this pick because the Giants also played Monday night.  Ugh!

Atlanta Falcons -3 at Carolina Panthers

The Chicago Bears' dream of back-to-back overall number 1 picks is still alive-and-kicking thanks to the dreadul Panthers offense (30th in scoring; 30th in total offense; 31st in passing offense).  The Panthers D is great against the pass (3rd), but part of that is teams are easily head and run the ball almost exclusively late (22nd rush defense).  Since Atlanta has found Bijan Robinson, I look for a healthy dose of running the ball.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 1/2 at Green Bay Packers

As of now, it looks like Aaron Jones will return for the Packers, and even with Jones I expect this to be a close game.  If he cannot return, or if he is limited by his injury, and with Christian Watson out - Tampa should cover on the road.  Plus Green Bay played Monday night, and I already picked 2 teams from Monday Night even though it is a short week.

San Francisco 49ers -12 at Arizona Cardinals

So, picking San Francisco as an intradivisional double-digit favorite last week hurt me, but even then they actually beat Seattle by 12, and Seattle is a much better tean than Arizona, which is 27th in scoring and 24th in total defense.

Los Angeles Rams -6 at Washington Commanders

At least the Rams get the 4:00 time slot coming from the west coast.  Anybody wonder if the Commanders defense is missing Montez Sweat and Chase Young yet?

Dallas Cowboys +2 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

Even though Buffalo beat the Chiefs last week, they are still 2-3 in their last 5 games.  On paper this is a close game with Dallas and Buffalo 1st and 5th in scoring; and 4th and 6th, respectively, in scoring defense.  In close games I take the points.  Also, this game is not going to be as close as on paper.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is a solid playoff team, but, they just look like they are missing a little something when watching them play (like a Trevor Lawrence connection with Calvin Ridley).  Hopefully they get that back before the playoffs to make the AFC a bit more exciting.  But for now, they host the Ravens who have won 3 in a row and 7 of their last 8.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Seattle Seahawks

Seattle is led by Drew Lock, who will not be enough to overcome the damage Philadelphia's offense is going to do to the 26th ranked scoring defense in the NFL (and 28th in total defense).

Big Bet:

Tennessee Titans -3 v. Houston Texans

This is a really difficult pick because Tennessee played Monday night, but as of now we are not sure whether C.J. Stroud can play for Houston. Given that he is still listed as "doubtful," I will have to take the medical staff's word for it and pick Tennessee.  This doubly hurts since Stroud is my fantasy QB (well 1 of 2 starters) and the pickings are slim in a 2 QB leauge.  Guess I am not a Tommy DeVito fan!

Tennessee gets the Big Bet because they are home - and most of my other favorite picks are on the road.  Plus, just last week they beat the vaunted Dolphins offense by holding Miami to only 27.

Record

Last Week's Record:  4-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  112-86-10

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-7
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($865)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,635

Picks of the Week

Last week was the third week this year with only 3 losses or less!  Too bad one of my losses was the Big Bet.  If I keep this up, I could make this a profession!  (Hint - it won't keep up; don't worry).  But, a helluva year it has been.  Let's hope it continues.

It is Week 14, so for those of you fantasy players fighting for a playoff spot - good luck!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. New England Patriots

When two horrible teams play, I ordinarily just take the points.  The problem here was Pittsburgh was the home team on a short week.  I should have known better due to my first sentence - after all home teams on short weeks only cover a bit more than 2/3 of the time.  I should have known this was a 1/3.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The Lions won 31-26 at home versus the Bears in Week 11, right about the time the Bears defense starting to really dominate.  This game is at home, and the Bears #1 ranked rush defense may be able to keep the score close.  Plus, I love a home team getting points.

Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This is just a gut pick because New Orleans has been playing poorly - losing their last 3 games and their last win coming in Week 9 against the Bears, who were worse than they are now.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are in the playoff hunt after winning their last 3 games, but they are a west coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot.  The Ravens defense makes sure that this game isn't particularly close.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Very impressive performance by Cincinnati's offense - and especially Jake Browning - on Monday night against the Jaguars.  But it was a Monday night, making this a short week, so I will take the points and the perpetually underrated Gardner Minshew.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

So, even after picking AGAINST Cincinnati because they played Monday night, I am picking FOR Jacksonville who played in the same game.  That is because this Browns team with Joe Flacco is not the same.  Yes, he gives some stability, but the explosiveness isn't there and despite Jerome Ford's great season, this offense really misses Nick Chubb.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anybody really believe that this game has serious playoff implications?!  Well, it does.  Give me the points in an awful game.  Bonus bet, Richaad White outgains Bijon Robinson in yards from scrimmage.

Houston Texans -3 at New York Jets

This Jets defense is legit, and has been playing awesome the last few weeks, even in losses.  but, this is a tremendous passing offense and even without Tank Dell, Houston will move the ball.  The wildcard?  Do we get a refreshed Zach Wilson out to prove he belongs in the NFL, or do we get a depressed, anxious Zach Wilson that tries to force things?  I think the latter, and Houston's defense comes up with a big turnover or two.

San Francisco 49ers -14 v. Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco has been throttling teams, winning their last four games by over a 23 point average, including a 31-13 vicotry over this same Seattle team in Week 12.  And this game is in San Francisco!

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Las Vegas has been playing teams tough, even though they have lost their last 4 games.  Minnesota has a turnover maching at quarterback.  Strip sack by Maxx Cosby anyone?

Kansas City Chiefs -1 v. Buffalo Bills

Two teams underperforming, but I will take Kansas City because of:  (1) Josh Allen's turnovers; and (2) The fact that Kansas City's defenses is just a littttttle bit better (3 v. 5 scoring; 14th v. 17th 3rd down percentage; 19 v. 20 rushing; 6th v. 8th passing; and 4th v. 13th overall).

Denver Broncos -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

The smoke-and-mirrors that was 5 consecutive wins for the Broncos may have ended with their 22-17 loss to Houston last week; except now they play the worst defense in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Cowboys offense is humming, having scored no less than 33 points in their 4 wins since losing 28-23 to the Eagles in Philadelphia in Week 9.  And, this game is at home.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Not sure what has gotten into Jordan Love, but he has been playing great in the Packers' three-game winning streak, and now they get to play the worst offense and the 28th-ranked defense in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -13 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is a huge point spread, but this late in the season most of the betting services have a pretty good idea of what is going on in the league.  Plus, the Dolphins have scored 34 and 45 in their last two weeks after a close win versus the Raiders in Week 11.  Tennessee is 22nd in passing defense and has to contend with the #1 ranked passing offense and the receiving yards leader in Tyreek Hill.

Big Bet:

Miami Dolphins -13 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is a huge point spread, but this late in the season most of the betting services have a pretty good idea of what is going on in the league.  Plus, the Dolphins have scored 34 and 45 in their last two weeks after a close win versus the Raiders in Week 11.  Tennessee is 22nd in passing defense and has to contend with the #1 ranked passing offense and the receiving yards leader in Tyreek Hill.

Yes - this is absolutely idiotic for me to pick this game as my big bet.  Way too many points to give up.  But, most of the other teams I felt like selecting are on the road (Green Bay, Houston, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville), or Baltimore giving up more than a touchdown at home.  So, I might as well go with the hot offense.

Record

Last Week's Record:  10-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  108-76-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $505

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,500  

Picks of the Week

Back on the winning track!  Let's turn this into a streak.  I am in an airport right now leaving in about an hour so no real analysis.  Still gotta get the picks in, though!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Dallas Cowboys -91/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Weird "short week" Thursday game in which both teams have their standard week from playing last Thanksgiving.  I didn't like this pick when it occurred, but I wouldn't have liked it if I picked Seattle either.

Houston Texans -3 v. Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Chargers -5 1/2 at New England Patriots

I hate picking a Pacific Time Zone team playing in the 1:00 slot, but the Patriots are awful.  I hate this bet.

Detroit Lions -4 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Already two road favorites.  This week is not going to be good.

Pittsburgh Steelers -6 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Can Pittsburgh score 6 1/2 points?

Atlanta Falcons -2 at New York Jets

Arthur Smith apparently discovered Bijan Robinson.

Indianapolis Colts -1 at Tennessee Titans

Colts to the playoffs?

Miami Dolphins -8 1/2 at Washington Commanders

If I am going to go down the road favorites rabbit hole, let's go down all the way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. Cleveland Browns

We still don't know who will be playing quarterback for Cleveland.

San Francisco 49ers -3 at Philadelphia Eagles

It has become trendy to pick Philly because how could they be an underdog at home.  I am going against the trend.

Green Bay Packers +6 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City hasn't been playing particularly well; Green Bay has.

Cincinnati Bengals +9 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

It is Jake Browning, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points.

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Bears #1 overall draft pick remains secure for now.

I like taking home teams, so Green Bay was a consideration here, but I don't want big money against Patrick Mahomes.

Last Week's Record:  9-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  98-73-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $280

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,995  

Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!!  And we all know what Thanksgiving means ...  NFL Football!!!  Time for me to say thank you to all you readers - or both readers - wichever is most accurate!  I am happy that from time-to-time you pay attention to my musings.  Although I don't expect anybody to necessarily read this, I do appreciate when I find out that you do!  Enjoy Thanksgiving and football!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Listen, after watching the Bears take the Lions down to the wire last weekend, there is no way that I like this pick, but it is a short week, and the Lions are home.  Plus, I feel like they think they have something to prove after last week's close call.

Dallas Cowboys -13 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Two gambling rules facing off against each other:  (1) Take the home team on a short week versus (2) Take double digit intradivsional underdog.  Not sure exactly what to do here, but Dallas' offense has really been clicking and the Commanders' defense is missing Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  I hate giving up double digits, but why not.

San Francisco 49ers -7 at Seattle Seahawks

OK, so this isn't the home team, but, home team on short weeks only cover 2/3rds of the time.  So, this is my 1/3rd prediction, especially since I don't expect Geno Smith to be back to 100%, and gthey only have the 19th best offense even when he is.

New York Jets +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Another home team/short week as this game is on Friday.  I am taking the Jets just because they have the 5th best passing defense and the 9th best total defense.  Not sure how many points the Jets will score under Tim Boyle, but I think the defense can keep the score low, so I will take 9 1/2.

Houston Texans +2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars seem like the better team, but they have the 29th ranked passing defense going up against Houston's 2nd ranke passing offense.  They both give up approximately the same amount of points (20.4 for Jacksonville and 20.8 for Houston), so I will take the points at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Unknown qualities here - Jake Browning for Cincinnati and new offensive play caller for Pittsburgh.  In that scenario, I'll take TJ Watt.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers continue their march to the Chicago Bears #1 overall pick!  Honestly, not a lot of thought to this one, taking the home below average team over the visiting awful team.

New Orleans Saints +1 at Atlanta Falcons

Two pretty good defenses, and two very average offenses.  One team has Arthur Smith coaching, so I will take a point and take the other team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Two teams that are way better than their record, but way worse statistically than their play.  Of note is Tampa's sixth-ranked rush defense going against Indianapolis' 10th ranked rush offense.  If I think it is going to be close, I'll take the points.

New York Giants +3 1/2 v. New England Patriots

If we can get the Giants team that played the Commanders last week, this should be easy; but no guarantee that happens.  Either way New England isn't that much better, so I'll take points.

Cleveland Browns +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Denver is much improved from the beginning of the year, but this Browns defense is no joke.  First overall, first in passing yards, first in 3rd down defense, 6th in scoring and 11th in rushing defense.  And I get points?  I feel like Dorian Thompson-Robinson is athletic enough to make the plays when he needs to do so, and the defense keeps the Broncos from scoring too much.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played well in a loss last week to Houston, and Kyler Murray is back with a game under his belt, but the Rams should get Khyren Williams back with Matthew Stafford.  I'll take the Rams.

Buffalo Bills +3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Bills are spiraling offensively, and especially turnover-wise, but Philadelphia is coming off a tough Monday night win over the Chiefs, which could affect them this week (plus it's a short week with Thanksgiving in the middle).  I'll take the points and the somewhat normal week.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders are playing inspired ball under Antonio Pearce, and although they may not win this game, Kansas City drops enough balls to keep this within a touchdown.  The Raiders limited the Dolphins to only 20 points last week, so that could continue, plus the Chiefs are coming off a heartbreaker on Monday night, and the short week - with a Thanksgiving interruption - doesn't bode well for the Chiefst to have to travel to Vegas.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

The NFL's worst pass defense and total defense hosting Lamar Jackson's 4th highest scoring offense and 6th best total offense.  Although the Chargers have offensive talent, the Ravens look to distance themselves a bit from the AFC North, with the injuries to Joe Burrow and DeShaun Watson.

Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Bears played Detroit great for 55 minutes last week.  If they can do that this week, this game will be close enough for a cover.  The Bears are 4th in rushing offense and second in rushing defense.  In most years without Matt Eberflus coaching that produces a winning team.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Unknown qualities here - Jake Browning for Cincinnati and new offensive play caller for Pittsburgh.  In that scenario, I'll take TJ Watt.

I don't like any of these games for my big bet, as the ones that I feel most sure about have some big spreads.  So, I'll just bet against Jake Browning.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  89-66-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,715  

Picks of the Week

Lots and lots of injuries.  Burrow - out; Mark Andrews - out; DeShaun Watson - out.  And that is just in the NFC North.  Last week hurt a lot for a lot of teams, and for your boy, who had an OK week (I lied - a really good week), but not good considering the previous week was 11-3!  (Did I mention I went 11-3 two weeks ago?)  Anyway, this could be worse - like Florida State losing their quarterback, making it a serious question mark for them to make the playoffs this year, given they have a rivalry game and a conference championship game coming up.  But, that is college, and that is in the future.  This is for today - and it is the N F L!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Home team, short week, tie.  Ugh!

Chicago Bears +7 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Detroit wins this game, but it is the first game this season in which the Bears will be starting their entire starting offensive line.  That's right - it happened in Week 11.  Plus, with their starting running back - Khalil Herbert - and their starting quarterback - Justin Fields - back, this game seems ripe for a backdoor cover because Fields scrambles right for 30 yards on a two-minute drive to lose 31 - 24.

 

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

If you watch these teams, you definitely know Jacksonville is better, but, if you look at the statistics, they are remarkably similar.  What does that mean to me?  Taking almost a touchdown seems to be the play because this game should be close.

Green Bay Packers +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

If this game was being played in the 4:00 slot, I might bet differently, but, west coast teams traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot usually lose.  Except, Green Bay is central, so that is minimized.  What isn't minimized is the Chargers horrific defense - 32nd overall and 32nd in pass defense.  There are only 32 teams in the league.  Green Bay may not win, but they should cover.

Washington Commanders -8 1/2 v. New York Giants

This looks like a huge number given that Washington is 4-6.  But, the Giants offense is last the NFL is scoring, passing and total offense and the defense is not much better at 20th in scoring, 24th in rushing, 21st in passing, and 27th in total defense.  Washingotn's defense is not much better, but their offense is way, way better as Sam Howell has thrown for more yards than any other quarterback in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This line is ridiculously hard to predict.  First, the Raiders have played spirited ball under Interim Head Coach Antonio Pearce.  But, they are a west-coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot.  So, against my own better judgment, I will lay the 2 touchdowns and hope the track team returns with Achane back.

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Cleveland Browns

In a game that is likely to end 2-0; I will take the points.  

Dallas Cowboys - 10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

No offense in the NFL is clicking as well as the Cowboys, and to top that off they have the 2nd best total defense, the 2nd best passing defense, and the 4th best scoring defense.

San Francisco 49ers -13 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It seems like the bye week did San Francisco well.

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Los Angeles Rams

Both teams are remarkably similar on paper, with the Seahawks a little worse on defense.  But, I would take the points in this game no matter which team was reciving them, as it should be close.

New York Jets +8 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills are certainly not clikcing right now, and on top of that, this is a short week for them coming off their defeat Monday night at the hands of the Broncos.  I'll take more than a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

In a game that should be close, I will take the points, especially since Denver, like Buffalo above, is coming off a short week.  No Justin Jeffereson makes this harder for Minnesota, but the game should still be close.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid is 26-6 coming off a bye week (19-3 in the regular season).  And, he gets this game at home.  The Eagles are actually playing better this year, but nobody prepares his team better than Reid.  He is the Tom Izzo of the NFL.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons; Indianapolis Colts; New England Patriots; New Orleans Saints

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Houston Texans should win this game easily, even with the return of Kyler Murray.  The one thing Arizona does moderately well is run the ball (9th in the NFL), and Houston is 8th in rushing defense.  Somewhat negating that "strength", Housston should win easily.  I wanted to consider Dallas, but tehy are on the road.  Same with Seattle.  San Francisco just giving up too many points.

Last Week's Record:  8-4-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  83-58-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $510

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,160  

Picks of the Week

 

11-3!!!  Against the spread.  That is all I am going to say!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Carolina Panthers

Home team, short week, tie.  Ugh!

Indianapolis Colts -1 1/2 v. New England Patriots (Frankfurt, Germany)

Colts offense too much for the Patriots.  Hate that this is the 9:30 game, as I don't want to watch it.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are just not good.  Steelers statistics are well below their record, but they just make the plays when then need to do so - especially on defense - and Diontae Johnson could have a field day without Jaire Aleaxander.

New Orleans Saints -3 at Minnesota Vikings

Since this isn't an intra-divisional game, I don't mind giving up a few points on the road. Josh Dobbs was a great story last week, but now he actually has time to plan, prepare and think about the gameplan - and sometimes that can hurt a team.  Honestly this is going to come down to if Minnesota can run or not, and they are 29th in the league, so that answer is no.

Houston Texans +6 at Cincinnati Bengals

This might be the most enjoyable game of the week.  Taking the points despite the fact that the Bengals have been playing awesome football lately because J'Marr Chase, if he plays, will be limited by a back injury and Tee Higgins has already been ruled out.  Grab Tyler Boyd for your fantasy team!

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Cleveland Browns

Yes, it is hard to move the ball, much less score against Cleveland's defense, but, the Ravens give up less points (13.8 to 17.4), and Cleveland is missing its top 3 tackles.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 v. Tennessee Titans

I do not like this line AT ALL.  Either way.  I guess I'll take the home team.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 v. San Francisco 49ers

Taking the east coast team against the west coast team in the 1:00 slot game.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

A lot of points are going to be scored here, and I will definitely be watching.  Chargers defense is 31st in total defense and last in passing defense. Jared Goff goes off.

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

I don't know what to make of this game because we just don't know how rusty Kyler Murray will be.  And, Arthur Smith at some point has to learn he can use Bijan Robinson, right?

Washington Commanders +6 at Seattle Seahawks

A battle of two teams that are both way better than people expect, and possibly even better than their records.  I'll take the points, as I think this should have been about a 2 1/2 or 3 point spread.

Dallas Cowboys -17 1/2 v. New York Giants

This is the most ridiculous line I have seen in a long, long time in an NFL game.  So, why not?  The only think that concerns me is if Tommy DeVito has some mobbed up relatives that are betting a lot on the Giants.

Las Vegas Raiders +1 v. New York Jets

Honestly, who care about this game?  Raiders win big.  Plus, Jets played Monday night.

Buffalo Bills -7 v. Denver Broncos

I don't like this line either.  Would be just as angry in picking the Broncos.  In this situation, I will take the home team and the team I feel is just more likely to win the game.

Bye Week:  Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins, Philadelphia Eagles

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

The Packers are just not good.  Steelers statistics are well below their record, but they just make the plays when then need to do so - especially on defense - and Diontae Johnson could have a field day without Jaire Aleaxander.

Sometimes you do have to take the game that you think is the obvious pick.

Last Week's Record:  11-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  75-54-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $605

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,650 

Time to Draft - Chappelle's Show

 

Every so often, Pepster and I get together to do big, irrelevant, time-consuming things that only make sense to a few people. A couple of months ago, a significant birthday and trip to Chicago provided the backdrop of one more of those important moments. 

It was 10 years ago that we got together with the idea of determining which was the best of the ESPN 30 for 30 series. After some debate, we decided that we would rank the first 48 episodes of the series (including the 14 ESPN Films Presents) from best to "I didn't even care that happened." This was done as a snake draft, so the coin flip to determine who went first was as dramatic as any argument we had that day. And there were a lot of arguments! 

Pepster won that draft and I now have to accept that The Two Escobars is the best of the early 30 for 30 episodes. If you were wondering what would have been first had the flip gone the other way, it was the obvious choice of Benji. 

The Top 10 back in 2013 went as follows:

1. The Two Escobars
2. Benji
3. You Don't Know Bo
4. June 17th, 1994
5. The U
6. Once Brothers
7. The Fab Five
8. Ungarded
9. No Crossover: The Trial of Allen Iverson
10. Pony Excess

So, what thing would we do in 2023 to anger people close to us looking to spend meaningful time on vacation? There was only one answer. The best episode of Chappelle's Show! 

The rules were simple. We would again flip a coin to determine the first pick with a snake draft following for the 28 available episodes. Yes, we included the questionable third season. The goal was to pick the best episode, not skit. So, we were evaluating the strength of the best skit in the episode, the quality of the remaining skits and the musical performance where applicable. Sinickal won the toss and the draft went as follows:

1. Season 2, Episode 4 - True Hollywood Stories: Rick James. There was no argument this year on Sinickal's pick as this was a consensus #1. Season 2 got off to a tremendous start and this was the best of the best! And as Pepster noted, we forget that Rashida Jones said no to anal in the love contract skit. Plausible?

2. Season 1, Episode 6 - Mad Real World. I mean, damn. Pepster's first pick produced some unbelievable jokes and quotable lines - "What's the square root of this apartment?" Pepster also commended the musical guest as an important part of the theme of the episode. Yes, that was David Broom from Real World New Orleans.

3. Season 1, Episode 1 - Clayton Bigsby. We all sat down to watch the premiere and we all came away thinking that Dave Chappelle had just broken television. A black, white supremacist? 

4. Season 2, Episode 5 - True Hollywood Stories: Prince. Season 2 of Chappelle's Show was a television miracle. The week after Rick James, Charlie Murphy was telling stories about Prince. We also got some more of Negrodamus. Brilliant.

5. Season 2, Episode 12 - Wayne Brady. "I'm Wayne Brady, bitch!" This episode was beyond quotable. 

6. Season 2, Episode 7 - World Series of Dice. This is the first episode in the list to have a stand out musical performance (Kanye West and Common) to go along with a great skit set in the Marcy Projects. Great episode top to bottom with Mooney on Movies.

7. Season 2, Episode 2 - The Niggar Family. I will simply say that I didn't think something like this could be put on television in 2004. Add in Negrodamus - "Everybody wanna be black, don't nobody wanna be black," Black Gallagher and DMX, and damn. 

8. Season 2, Episode 1 - The Racial Draft. We still can't believe this was still on the board. Genius skit and a great R. Kelley joke.

9. Season 1, Episode 9 - Playa Haters Ball. The first real debate in the draft as Pepster thought this would go later in the draft. Sinickal felt that the primary skit was really strong. I mean, "She wears underwear with dickholes in them."

10. Season 1, Episode 2 - Tyrone Biggums at School. This pick recognizes the strength of the musical performance. This was Mos Def and it was spectacular.

11. Season 2, Episode 8 - Jury Duty. And Oprah Winfrey gets pregnant - "It's not what's gotten into me, it's what's gotten into Oprah. My seed, bitch!"

12 Season 1, Episode 12 - Trading Spouses. Sinickal had this much higher on the board than Pepster. Long debate went on with Pepster stating that this episode had Jalen Brown talent, but Jason Tatum closing ability. Sinickal loved the main skit. 

13. Season 2, Episode 11 - Greatest Misses. Great musical performance by Kanye West, Freeway and Mos Def, and some unbelievable quotes including "You so dark that when you touch yourself it is black on black crime," and "She got one big tittie and one little tittie. They call that bitch Biggie Smalls."

14. Season 1, Episode 5 - Great Moments in Hook Up History. Pepster had this really high for Sinickal's liking. Pepster commented that this was for the Fat Joe musical performance and that "it came in higher than I thought, and I did my list."

15. Season 1, Episode 7 - Real Movies. Very different views on this episode. Liked much more by Pepster than Sinickal here. 

16. Season 2, Episode 10 - Making the Band. Neither of us can believe this lasted this long. Great guests, and the Oscar the Grouch quote "I beat my dick like it owes me money."

17. Season 2, Episode 8 - I Know Black People. The quote from Sinickal on this lasting so long is that "we must have been drafting for need up until now."

18. Season 1, Episode 8 - Tyrone Bigum's Intervention. It is at this point of the draft that we both begin selecting for one aspect of the episode. 

19. Season 2, Episode 6 - Internet as a Real Place. Also included what life would be like for Lil John which was hilarious.

20. Season 1, Episode 4 - Reparations. With Busta Rhymes as the musical guest, Pepster and Sinickal believe this episode was drafted exactly where it should have been at the end of the top 20. 

The last seven episodes are:

21. Season 1, Episode 11 - Fisticuff: Turn My Headphones Up

22. Season 1, Episode 3 - Zapped

23. Season 3, Episode 3 - MTv Cribs

24. Season 1, Episode 10 - Piss on You Video

25. Season 2, Episode 12 - Black Bush

26. Season 2, Episode 3 - White People Dancing

27. Season 3, Episode 1 - Tupac is Still Alive

28. Season 3, Episode 2 - Black Howard Dean

I will close this post with this thought. Season 3 was awful, but this draft was a lot of fun. Can't wait to see what the next several hour waste of time produces. 

Picks of the Week

So, the previous week wasn't the regression from my 13-2 week, but last week really was.  Could have been a lot worse if any of the 3 ties broke in the other direction.  Yes, 3 ties.  Ridiculous.  But, gotta bounce back, so I have given serious thought to the picks this week.  Let's see how that goes.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -3 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

I didn't actually want to pick the Steelers on Thursday, but somehow, just sticking to the gambling rules, home team on a short week, actually worked!!!

Miami Dolphins + 1 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs (in Frankfurt, Germany)

This pick actually makes no sense, as both offenses are dynamic (1st in the Dolphins, and 4th for the Chiefs), but the Chiefs have s sturdier defense (3rd overall, 2nd in scoring, 2nd in passing).  But, I just think the Jalen Ramsey addition is going to jump start Miami after his interception last week.

Chicago Bears + 9 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

Saits win easily, but I just cannot give up almost double digits and be happy watching the game.

Green Bay Packers -3 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

Every fiber of my being says the Rams take this; but people lose going against the gambling rules.  We have not had a west coast team traveling east and playing in the early slot in a long time.  Gotta take the Packers.

Washington Commanders +3 at New England Patriots

Even with Chase Young and Montez Sweat, Washington was 29th in pass defense.  Although the Patriots have played tough recently, the Commanders won't need a pass rush to annoy Mac Jones.

Houston Texans -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Houston is 11th in pass offense whereas Tampa Bay is 28th in pass defense.  Expect a big game from C.J. Stroud in bouncing back from last week's loss to the Panthers.

Cleveland Browns -12 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Double digits is a tough spread in the NFL, buta rookie quarterback making his first start for a team that seems like they have clearly given up this season.  Plus, DeShaun Watson's return could spark a talented, but underachieving pass offense.

Baltimore Ravens -6 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

The Ravens are playing amazingly right now, and their defense will be the difference in this game.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team, traveling east, and playing in the early slot - which are historically sure losers against the spread.

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

Indianapolis Colts -2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

It would be that kind of year for the Bears to have the Panthers win 2 games in a row.  But, I don't think so.

Las Vegas Raiders -1 1/2 v. New York Giants

Two dumpster fires going head-to-head.  Remind me to miss this game.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 v. Dallas Cowboys

The passing games are what is going to decide this game.  The Eagles are 26th in pass defense, and although the Cowboys are 4th, they are currently playing without any cornerbacks (ok, slight hyperbole).  Eagles because they are home.

Cincinnati Bengals -2 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills

Two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions, so much so that I am taking the team that is the 31st ranked offense and 28th ranked defense, and giving points to the Bills.

Los Angeles Chargers -4 1/2 at New York Jets

Seriously - do you actually believe that the Jets have the best record here?  (They do!)  But, the league's worst pass defense has nothing to fear in the 31st ranked passing offense, so I'll take the team that scores.

Bye Week:  Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers

Big Bet:

Atlanta Falcons -4 v. Minnesota Vikings

Taylor Heinicke is the established, experienced quarterback in this battle.

I don't like any of these games for the Big Bet.  My other thoughts were taking the Las Vegas Raiders, and Houston.  But, just gonna bet against the BYU quarterback in his first start.  (That's Jaren Hall, not Zach Wilson, but also applicable!!!)

Last Week's Record:  5-8-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  64-51-7

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  5-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($230)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,045 

Picks of the Week

So, regressed to the mean and gave back a few bucks last week, just like I knew was going to happen.  But, either way, there is going to be some football this weekend, as I am reporting to you live from The Artist Formerly Known as the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville, Florida - one of the few reasons to ever go to Jacksonville, Florida.  Hell, even the Jaguars play their home games in London.

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Buffalo Bills -10 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ten points is A LOT in this league, but had to go for the home team on the short week.  And it would have worked except for the damn facemask on Jordan Phillips.  Oh well - gotta make it up on Sunday!

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Everything about the Steelers says they are a bad team.  Like, really, really bad.  Next-to-last (31st) in offense and just slightly better (30th) in defense.  But somehow they are 4-2 and are getting points at home against a good, but somewhat milquetoast Jaguars team.  Probably a dumb pick, but I keep coming back to Pittsburgh.

New York Giants +3 v. New York Jets

Both home teams, so that doesn't matter.  This could be a game in which both teams struggle to score.  For that reason, and that reason alone I am taking the points.  

Houston Texans -3 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

Houston is an average team that is surprisingly entertaining, and Carolina is neither of those things.  I  know it is six games in, but C.J. Stroud has taken an early, but sizable lead in the "Who is the best rookie QB" race.  Whomever wants Caleb Williams (or Drake Maye), get your offers ready for the Bears, as Chicago has Carolina's first round pick.

New England Patriots +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

After seeing what the Patriots defense did to the Bills last week, I am taking this spread.  I expect Miami to win, but maybe Bailey Zappe in relief of Mac Jones scoring a backdoor cover to lose 30-21?

Atlanta Falcons -2 1/2 at Tennessee Titans

Desmond Ridder is sufficiently competent, and could we be seeing Derrick Henry's last game as a Titan? (Perhaps to the Bills, or Browns?)

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

Los Angeles Rams +6 at Dallas Cowboys

I honestly don't feel good about this pick, or if I picked Dallas, either.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 at Washington Commanders

Road intra-divisional favorites are always tough to pick, but after the way the Eagles made the Dolphins look last week, it is hard to bet against them, even giving a touchdown.  Plus, Washington is 26th in the NFL in rushing and Philadelphia has the toughest rush defense, giving up just under 63 yards per game. Then, add to that the increasing winds around potential trades of Montez Sweat and/or Chase Young, and this could get ugly depending upon how Washington responds.

New Orleans Saints -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Sometimes interesting, mostly nondescript offense led by Derek Carr versus a sometimes intriguing, mostly milquetoast offense led by Gardner Minshew.  Taking New Orleans only because of their tough defense (3rd overall, 4th passing, 6th scoring).

Cleveland Browns +4 at Seattle Seahawks

I could see this game could actually go either way, especially since the Browns are led by future-XFL Hall-of-Famer P.J. Walker.  But that Cleveland defense is just too banging.  Kareem Hunt is a legitimate starter in this league, but could Cleveland be in the Derrick Henry sweepstakes?

Kansas City Chiefs -7 at Denver Broncos

If this game was last week, I would have selected Denver, since Kansas City had played pretty close games except for their blowout win against Chicago.  But, their victory over the Chargers may have convinced me that they are truly starting to click.  What happens when Mecole Hardman gets settled in.

Cincinnati Bengals +4 1/2 at San Francisco 49ers

Coming off consecutive losses to the Browns and Vikings, I am definitely taking the points in this game with San Francisco having played Monday night.  

Arizona Cardinals +10 v. Baltimore Ravens

Ravens win this game, but I just cannot give up double digits at home.  Ravens win 23-14.

Chicago Bears +9 1/2 v. Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers have to be the best 2-4 team ever.  Seriously.  Justin Herbert has a 97.1 rating.  They are 5th in total offense, but, oh yeah, 31st in total defense and 32nd in passing defense.  That probably won't matter against a Bears team that is 28th in scoring, but it might matter enough for Chicago to cover.

Detroit Lions -8 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders are a mess.  They just gave up 30 to the Bears, and barely beat the Patriots and Packers in the two weeks before that.  Meanwhile the Lions will be angry coming off last week's shellacking at the hands of the Ravens.

Big Bet:

Minnesota Vikings -1 at Green Bay Packers

Every fiber of my NFL gambling being says Minnesota played Monday night, so take Green Bay.  Except, it is Green Bay and they are not good.  Minnesota not only wins this, but pretty handily.

This SHOULD happen.  Easiest picks on the board often surprise, thought, and that is what I don't like, except Kirk Cousins is playing in the noon slot!

Last Week's Record:  6-7

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  59-43-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-3
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,275

Picks of the Week

I guess putting some thought and analysis into games can help.  13-2 BABY!!!  Quite possibly my best week ever, even including weeks before I kept this blog.  Now, I know that a reversal is coming, and probably deserved, so I am going to tempt fate and just brag about this week for a while, until that reversal occurs!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

There would have to be a very compelling reason for me to select the visiting team on a short week.  The Jaguars getting points is that compelling reason.

Chicago Bears +2 1/2 v. Las Vegas Raiders

The obvious selection here is the Raiders, but when not one, but TWO backup quarterbacks will be starting a game, strange things will happen, like maybe a 8-6 Raiders victory!

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

Buffalo Bills -8 at New England Patriots

This New England team cannot score points (31st in the league at 12 per game), and they cannot teams from scoring (Tied for 24th in the league.)  Meanwhile, Buffalo is 3rd in scoring and 3rd in scoring defense.

New York Giants +3 v. Washington Commanders

I actually like thsi Commanders squad a little bit more than most, but I am making this selection on a feeling that Saquon Barkley with a game under his belt is going to be closer to his real self, and that will open up some passing lanes for Darren Waller as well.  Close game, so I will take the points.

Atlanta Falcons +2 1/2 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For all of the tealk about the 3-2 Buccaneers being the surprise team in the NFC South, the 3-3 Atlanta Falcons are about even or better in most offensive stats, and are 2nd in the NFL in total defense.  Imagine if they had a quarterback?!

Detroit Lions +3 at Baltimore Ravens

This is strength on strength.  Detroit's 3rd-ranked offense versus Baltimore's 3rd-ranked defense.  The Lions are the number 4 passing team in the league and 8th rushing team.  Baltimore is the 2nd-best passing defense and 9th-best rushing defense.  Detroit is the 4th-highest scoring team, and Baltimore is the 4th stingiest defense.  The difference?  Detroit's defense is better than Baltimore's offense.

Arizona Cardinals +9 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks

Arizona is a really bad squad, on both sides of the ball, with the exception that they use to be able to run the ball with James Conner - but he is on IR.  But, Seattle isn't THAT good to  be giving up 9 plus points.  They only score 24 a game, and give up 21.6.  I'll take the points and avoid watching this game.

Los Angeles Rams -3 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I have won several games selecting Pittsburgh as an underdog this year.  But not this game against this offense.  The Rams are 5th in total offense and 6th in passing.  The Steelers are 30th in total defense and 25th in passing defense.  I expect the Rams to put up more than enough points to coast, even if TJ Watt gets a sack or two.

Green Bay Packers -1 at Denver Broncos

Only because Aaron Jones returning makes him the best player on the field for either team.  Another game to avoid watching!

Kansas City Chiefs -6 v. Los Angeles Chargers

Kansas City hasn't exactly been lighting teams up.  With the exception of the Bears game, KC has played teams pretty close, including a boring 19-8 performance against the Broncos last week.  So, taking the points seems obvious here.  But, then we see the Chargeres are last in the league in passing defense and next-to-last in total defense, so if there is a team against which the Chiefs could solve some of their offensive problems, this would be it.  And ... the Chargers played Monday night, so they are on a short week.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Philadelphia Eagles

These are the two best offenses in the league.  The Eagles defense is just a bit better than the Dolphins.  When something is seemingly close, I'll take the points.  I don't like this pick though, and I wouldn't like it if I picked Philly, either.

San Francisco 49ers -6 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

San Francisco looked good - or at least as good as any offense has looked against the Browns this year - in a loss, whereas the Vikings looked bad in a win against the lowly Bears.  I expect San Francisco to bounce back in a big way.

Big Bet:

Cleveland Browns -3 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

I don't think this Colts offense - even with Jonathan Taylor - will be able to do much against the Browns defense, which is 1st overall, 1st in passing defense, 1st in third-down percentage, 3rd in rushing defense, and 5th in scoring defense.

I don't like any of these picks strongly enough to make them my big bet, so I landed here.  I don't like this one because I hate giving up points on the road; but so was Atlanta.  I thought about the Giants at home, but I am not comfortable with that pick.  KC merited consideration, but they have been a bit sluggish.  In short, I just felt more confident in Cleveland than anybody else.

Last Week's Record:  13-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  53-36-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  4-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $1,230

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,610

Picks of the Week

 

I put in no analysis last week, and it showed in the results.  Hopefully a little thought could me a few more wins this week.  Got off to a good start on Thursday night, and hopefully can keep that rolling!

Kansas City Chiefs -10 1/2 v. Denver Broncos

I hate giving up double digit points to an intradivisional rival, but the fact that this is a short week gave me cover - see what I did there? - to take the Chiefs.  No way was a sweating the ultimately 19-8 victory!  (You better not believe that!)

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans (London - Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)

Baltimore wins this easily.

Chicago Bears +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

The Bears getting points at home, with a suddenly resurgent offense (9th in rushing, 11th in scoring and a now-potent passing attack) going aginst the 22nd ranked passing defense, and 20th overall).

Washington Commanders  +1 at Atlanta Falcons

If Washington can keep doing whatever they did in the second half against the Bears, they might have found an offense under Sam Howell.  But, it was the Bears.

Cleveland Browns +9 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco seems to clearly be the class of the NFL right now, so why would I pick Cleveland, with a backup quarterback?  Well, it is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 slot, and, Cleveland's defense is legit!  First in total defense, passing defense and third-down percentage, 3rd in scoring defense, and 4th in rushing defense.  San Francisco very well may win, but 9 1/2 is a lot of points under these circumstance.  Now, let's see who plays QB.

New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 at Houston Texans

This was a tough call for me, but New Orleans has been playing much better since Alvin Kamara's return, and Houston's strength, it's passing game, could be negated by New Orleans' passing defense, which is 4th in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

This is just a stupid line.  Just stupid.  Nobody in their right mind would give up this many points in an NFL game.  Carolina's defense is solid, also, against the pass at least (6th).  But Miami can run over just about anyone, even with Achane out.  Mostert is fast himself, and a solid running back.  And, something stupid happens every week.  Why not this game, at home, in the heat, against a rookie quarterback experiencing growing pains.

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Jacksonville Jaguars -4 v. Indianapolis Colts

Gardner Minshew's return to Jacksonville, and don't laugh, but dude can throw.  He has a 95.1 rating so far this year in limited action.  But, Jacksonville seems to be playing better - in London, mind you - than they were in a week 1 31-21 victory over Indianapolis, in Indiana.  I expect this game to be close, but Jacksonville wins it, and covers.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. New England Patriots

Nobody wants to watch this game, and I feel the wheels have come off the Patriots wagon.  Even with the Raiders on a short week, I feel I have to pick them here.  Is it time for Bailey Zappe?  So, the Patriots keep losing and end up with the number 4 pick.  Trade it to Chicago - who holds Carolina's number 1 pick, for a swap in number 1s, a 2025 #1, a 2026 #1, and a 2024 #3.  Go Raiders!!!

Detroit Lions -3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Although the Buccaneers are much better than expected playing behind a resurgent Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions are just better.  And the fact they are 9th in total defense is impressive as well.  Detroit can book a ticket to the playoffs playing in the less-than-stellar NFC North; meanwhile the NFC South is equally less-than-stellar. 

Los Angeles Rams -7 v. Arizona Cardinals

Even though they are only 2-3, the Rams rank 8th in total offense, 5th in passing offense and 14th in scoring.  AND Cooper Kupp is back after knocking off the rust last week with 8 catches for 118 yards.  Arizona's defense leads a lot to be desired, ranking 26th in passing defense, 27th in scoring, and 28th overall.  I expcet the Rams to put up 35 and cruise to a win.

New York Jets +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, the Eagles are undefeated and the Jets are playing Zach Wilson.  But, hear me out here...Wilson has been better, and the Jets defense can be really tough.  Plus, the Eagles haven't really blown anyone out - with a 25-11 victory over Tampa in week 3 their largest margin. Even last week the Eagles beat the Rams by 9 with two 4th quarter field goals from Jake Elliott.  I believe they stay undefeated, but win by 4.

New York Giants +15 at Buffalo Bills

There is no way I am giving up 2 touchdowns or more on 2 different games this week.  Since I am already giving up 14 to Carolina in the Dolphins game, I will not do it here.  Why this game?  Well, I think Daniel Jones is done - whether for good or just in New York I don't know - so I think the team may have more confidence and be better offensively with Tyrod Taylor.  Taylor was 9-12 for 86 yards and 14 yards rushing in limited time last week.  Plus, Taylor will try to actually target their best pass-catcher, Darren Waller.  On top of that, things are "optimistic" that Saquon Barkley will return.  He is a game changer, and can be the difference between losing by 28 and losing by 13.

Dallas Cowboys -1 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys defense is going to come out IRATE after last week's drubbing at the hands of the 49ers. And although corner is a problem right now for Dallas, with passing being the best part of the Chargers offense - even more so with the return of Austin Ekeler - the Chargers' 31st ranked defense, and last ranked pass defense might be just what Dallas needs to re-invigorate CeeDee Lamb and the Dallas offense.

Big Bet:

Cincinnati Bengals -3 v. Seattle Seahawks

So, Cincinnati may have found their offensive mojo last week in a 34-20 victory over Arizona, in which J'Marr Chase scored 3 touchdowns on 15 receptions for 192 yards.  Plus, Seattle is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot.  Those teams fail to cover 2/3 of the time, except Seattle has historically been opposite of that statistic, back in the Russel Wilson, Legion of Boom days.  Different team.  Way different team.

Even though the Browns and Jets are at home getting lots of points, and the Giants are away getting lots of points, I just could not pull the trigger on them as my big bet.  So, here is a home team giving away a few points.  I just have to hope the Bengals did find themselves last week and that it continues over to this week.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  40-34-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  3-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($130)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $380

Picks of the Week

 

Finished in the black, albeit just a little last week, but I will take it.  I am travelling today, so no analysis, just picks.

Washington Commanders -5 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills -5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)

Miami Dolphins -12 1/2 v. New York Giants 

New Orleans Saints +1 1/2 at New England Patriots

Baltimore Ravens -4 1/2 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Detroit Lions -9 v. Carolina Panthers

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Tenneessee Titans -2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Arizona Cardinals +3 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Los Angeles Rams +4 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Kansas City Chiefs - 3 1/2 at Minnesota Vikings

 

Denver Broncos -2 1/2 v. New York Jets

San Francisco 49ers -3 1/2 v. Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay Packers +2 at Las Vegas Raiders

Awful game, I am just taking the points.

Big Bet:

Houston Texans +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

I don't really like this pick, but the other two games I considered, Baltimore and Kansas City, are road favorites, so they are giving points.

Last Week's Record:  9-6-1

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  34-26-4

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  2-2
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $75

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $510