Picks of the Week

Last week was the third week this year with only 3 losses or less!  Too bad one of my losses was the Big Bet.  If I keep this up, I could make this a profession!  (Hint - it won't keep up; don't worry).  But, a helluva year it has been.  Let's hope it continues.

It is Week 14, so for those of you fantasy players fighting for a playoff spot - good luck!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. New England Patriots

When two horrible teams play, I ordinarily just take the points.  The problem here was Pittsburgh was the home team on a short week.  I should have known better due to my first sentence - after all home teams on short weeks only cover a bit more than 2/3 of the time.  I should have known this was a 1/3.

Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

The Lions won 31-26 at home versus the Bears in Week 11, right about the time the Bears defense starting to really dominate.  This game is at home, and the Bears #1 ranked rush defense may be able to keep the score close.  Plus, I love a home team getting points.

Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints

This is just a gut pick because New Orleans has been playing poorly - losing their last 3 games and their last win coming in Week 9 against the Bears, who were worse than they are now.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are in the playoff hunt after winning their last 3 games, but they are a west coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot.  The Ravens defense makes sure that this game isn't particularly close.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Very impressive performance by Cincinnati's offense - and especially Jake Browning - on Monday night against the Jaguars.  But it was a Monday night, making this a short week, so I will take the points and the perpetually underrated Gardner Minshew.

Jacksonville Jaguars + 1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

So, even after picking AGAINST Cincinnati because they played Monday night, I am picking FOR Jacksonville who played in the same game.  That is because this Browns team with Joe Flacco is not the same.  Yes, he gives some stability, but the explosiveness isn't there and despite Jerome Ford's great season, this offense really misses Nick Chubb.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 at Atlanta Falcons

Does anybody really believe that this game has serious playoff implications?!  Well, it does.  Give me the points in an awful game.  Bonus bet, Richaad White outgains Bijon Robinson in yards from scrimmage.

Houston Texans -3 at New York Jets

This Jets defense is legit, and has been playing awesome the last few weeks, even in losses.  but, this is a tremendous passing offense and even without Tank Dell, Houston will move the ball.  The wildcard?  Do we get a refreshed Zach Wilson out to prove he belongs in the NFL, or do we get a depressed, anxious Zach Wilson that tries to force things?  I think the latter, and Houston's defense comes up with a big turnover or two.

San Francisco 49ers -14 v. Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco has been throttling teams, winning their last four games by over a 23 point average, including a 31-13 vicotry over this same Seattle team in Week 12.  And this game is in San Francisco!

Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Minnesota Vikings

Las Vegas has been playing teams tough, even though they have lost their last 4 games.  Minnesota has a turnover maching at quarterback.  Strip sack by Maxx Cosby anyone?

Kansas City Chiefs -1 v. Buffalo Bills

Two teams underperforming, but I will take Kansas City because of:  (1) Josh Allen's turnovers; and (2) The fact that Kansas City's defenses is just a littttttle bit better (3 v. 5 scoring; 14th v. 17th 3rd down percentage; 19 v. 20 rushing; 6th v. 8th passing; and 4th v. 13th overall).

Denver Broncos -3 at Los Angeles Chargers

The smoke-and-mirrors that was 5 consecutive wins for the Broncos may have ended with their 22-17 loss to Houston last week; except now they play the worst defense in the NFL.

Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

The Cowboys offense is humming, having scored no less than 33 points in their 4 wins since losing 28-23 to the Eagles in Philadelphia in Week 9.  And, this game is at home.

Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at New York Giants

Not sure what has gotten into Jordan Love, but he has been playing great in the Packers' three-game winning streak, and now they get to play the worst offense and the 28th-ranked defense in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -13 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is a huge point spread, but this late in the season most of the betting services have a pretty good idea of what is going on in the league.  Plus, the Dolphins have scored 34 and 45 in their last two weeks after a close win versus the Raiders in Week 11.  Tennessee is 22nd in passing defense and has to contend with the #1 ranked passing offense and the receiving yards leader in Tyreek Hill.

Big Bet:

Miami Dolphins -13 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans

This is a huge point spread, but this late in the season most of the betting services have a pretty good idea of what is going on in the league.  Plus, the Dolphins have scored 34 and 45 in their last two weeks after a close win versus the Raiders in Week 11.  Tennessee is 22nd in passing defense and has to contend with the #1 ranked passing offense and the receiving yards leader in Tyreek Hill.

Yes - this is absolutely idiotic for me to pick this game as my big bet.  Way too many points to give up.  But, most of the other teams I felt like selecting are on the road (Green Bay, Houston, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville), or Baltimore giving up more than a touchdown at home.  So, I might as well go with the hot offense.

Record

Last Week's Record:  10-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  108-76-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $505

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,500  

Picks of the Week

 

As predicted, I came back down to earth this week, but still up overall.  Hoping for a bounce-back today!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

San Francisco 49ers -10 1/2 v. New York Giants

Home team on a short week, even giving up double digits.  If this was not on Thursday night, I would have made this my big bet.

Minnesota Vikings pick 'em v. Los Angeles Chargers

Not quite traveling to the eastern time zone, but close enough considering the Chargers are last in psasing defense, and total defense, and 30th in scoring defense.  Expect a big game from the "Noon Nightmare".

Buffalo Bills -5 1/2 at Washington Commanders

Week 1 may have awaken the Bills who thumped the Raiders last week and may have the same in store for the Commanders this week.

Green Bay Packers + 1 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Saints played Monday night, and although 2-0, they have not impressed in close wins over the Titans and Panthers.  I will take the home team and the points.

Detroit Lions -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

A battle of two really good-looking running backs in Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson.  With David Montgomery out, look for Gibbs to shine with more touches, and Detroit is better on the outside with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds.

Tennessee Titans +3 1/2 at Cleveland Browns

Doing this solely because the Browns played Monday night.  Their defense is legit so far, but those stats were accumulated against a suppressed Bengals offense and the offensively putrid Pittsburgh Steelers.  Give me the points in a low-scoring game, especially with no Nick Chubb.

Houston Texans +7 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars win this, but Houston scores enough points to cover.  You probably didn't know that the Texans have the 5th best passing offense in the league so far this year, did you?

New York Jets +2 1/2 v. New England Patriots

This bet is waaaaayyyyy against the grain, but getting points at home in a divisional game is something I love to take.  And, the Patriots are underwhelming offensively and defensively, so they may not score enough points to cover, as they only average 18.5 points a game.

Miami Dolphins -6 v. Denver Broncos

No Jaylen Waddle concerns me, but that can only slow down, and not stop, the number 1 passing and total offense in the NFL.

Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts

Lamar Jackson has completed 75% of his passes.

Kansas City Chiefs -12 1/2 v. Chicago Bears

Until the Bears can show some excitement, I am picking against them - almost no matter the spread.

Seattle Seahawks -4 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers are underwhelming offensively (32nd in passing, 30th in scoring, 28th in total offense), AND they are playing without Bryce Young.  Plus, short week for the Panthers.

 

Dallas Cowboys -12 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

This is such a ridiculous spread that I had to pick the Cowboys.

Las Vegas Raiders -3 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

I do not like this pick, but Pittsburgh played Monday night, and I will win way more than I lose picking against the short week team, especially if they are on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles -5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Eagles win this game handily, as the Bucs are imposters at 2-0, having beaten the Vikings in week 1 - where anything can happen - and the lowly Bears.

Los Angeles Rams + 2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Especially if Joe Burrow doesn't play.  The Rams are 3rd in total offense, 3rd in passing offense, 5th in passing defense and 7th in total defense.  Conversely, the Bengals are last in total offense, 30th in passing offense, 28th in rushing offense, and the deense is just as bad - ranking 31st in rushing defense and 25th in total defense.

Big Bet:

Miami Dolphins -6 v. Denver Broncos

No Jaylen Waddle concerns me, but that can only slow down, and not stop, the number 1 passing and total offense in the NFL.

I thought about the Bills here, but they are on the road, and I love the Houston pick, but also on the road.  Settling on this game, but still pretty confidant.

Last Week's Record:  6-7-3

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  16-13-3

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($335)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $155

Picks of the Week

Been watching the Ryder Cup, so I don't have it in me to do any real analysis.  Just the picks this week.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Minnesota Vikings +7 at Los Angeles Rams

Chicago Bears -3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cincinnati Bengals + 3 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Detroit Lions + 2 1/2 at Dallas Cowboys

Buffalo Bills +9 at Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans pick 'em at Indianapolis

Jacksonville Jaguars -7 1/2 v. New York Jets

Miami Dolphins + 6 1/2 at New England Patriots

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Tennessee Titans

Arizona Cardinals +3 1/2 v. Seattle Seahawks

Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 at Oakland Raiders

Los Angeles Chargers -10 v. San Francisco 49ers

New Orleans Saints -3 1/2 at New York Giants

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

Denver Broncos +3 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

Big Bet
Miami Dolphins +6 1/2 at New England Patriots
Miami usually plays New England tough, even in their heyday.  New England does not seem to tbe as dominating, so I will take the 6 1/2 points.

Last Week's Record: 6-10

Last Week's Big Bet: 1-0
Year-to-Date Record: 23-24-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 2-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($350)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: ($205)

Picks of the Week

So, it only took until week 2 for me to have a really bad week.  If it wasn't for the ups-and-downs, sports betting wouldn't be so exciting.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game, with one game each week going for $250. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns +3 v. New York Jets
Home underdog on a short week, while the Jets are playing their third game in 11 days with a rookie starting quarterback. Didn't play out the way I thought, but the pick was still solid.

New Orleans Saints +2 at Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is out two key defenders, and gave up a ton or yards and touchdowns to Cam Newton.  What do we think Drew Brees will do.  Plus, Christian McCaffrey had 14 receptions last week, how many will Alvin Kamara have this week.  

Denver Broncos +6 at Baltimore Ravens
We have Denver, which is 4th in Total Offense, against Baltimore, which is second in Total Defense.  I take Denver because Baltimore's stats are skewed due to the fact they played Buffalo in the first game.

Cincinnati Bengals +2 1/2 at Carolina Panthers
Cincinnati is 4th in total points scored at 34 per game.  Yes it's early, but Carolina just gave up 31 to Atlanta.  Win or lose, Cincinnati puts up enough points to keep this close and cover, although I honestly I feel they win outright.

Houston Texans -6 v. New York Giants
You k now the season is rapidly deteriorating for you when everyone is cheering the demotion of the starting right tackle, as the Giants' fans are with Erik Flowers.  The Giants defense has actually performed very well this year, but the Texans pass rush is going to be too much for New York.

Tennessee Titans +10 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Blaine Gabbert couldn't win in Jacksonville the first time around, and I don't think he will this time, either.  However, I am just not ready to starting betting on Jacksonville giving up double digit spreads.  Leonard Fournette is out again, and the Jaguars are 4-0 in games he does not play. That doesn't mean they will win by 10, though.

San Francisco 49ers +6 at Kansas City Chiefs 
Kansas City has looked great in putting up the most points in the NFL this year (even with only the 6th best Total Offense), but their defense is last overall, last against the pass and 29th in points given up.    Kansas City may win, but San Francisco will put up some points against the Chiefs.  Likewise, San Franscisco is 25th against the pass so expect big numbers from Patrick Mahomes again.

Miami Dolphins -3 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in further disarray, as this week Gruden said "it is hard to find an elite pass rusher", despite just having traded away Khalil Mack.  Now we here that Gruden has his own personal circle of advisers outside of the management of the team.  Who does he think he is, Donald Trump?

Minnesota Vikings -16 1/2 v. Buffalo Bills
This is such an asinine spread that nobody in their right mind should even think about picking it.  But, sometimes there is a line that just seems a little too easy to pick, and there is a reason for that.  I am not taking the easy way on this one.  I hesitantly take the Vikings and give up three scores.

Philadelphia Eagles -6 1/2 v. Indianapolis Colts
The Eagles should get a big boost from Carson Wentz, and should coast to an easy victory in this game.  SHOULD.

Washington Racists +2 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers
A home underdog with the number 1 total defense - and number 1 passing defense - in the NFL in what should be a close game.  Give me the points.  Plus, apparently Aaron Rodgers has a little bit of a knee injury.

Chicago Bears -6 at Arizona Cardinals
To date Chicago has been one of the pleasant surprises of the league and Arizona has been the second worst team in the league.  I'll gladly give these points on the road, although if if was 7 1/2, I would likely select Arizona.

Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Los Angeles Rams
Yes the Rams have looked spectacular.  But, this could be a Super Bowl preview, and I expect Phillip Rivers to keep this game relatively close.

Dallas Cowboys +1 at Seattle Seahawks
I am not sure that I am excited about this matchup at all.  Dallas does have a pretty good pass rush, and Seattle's offensive line looks better than only Florida State's.

New England Patriots -6 1/2 at Detroit Lions
As we all know, I am not a fan or road favorites, but hasn't shown any real life this season, and we know that Belichick is pissed at his team's performance last week against Jacksonville.  So much so that they traded for Josh Gordon.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ryan Fitzpatrick against a Steelers secondary that is abysmal. The only reason they aren't ranked worse (15th in pass defense) is because game one was against the Cleveland.  Unleash the FitzMagic!!!

Big Bet
Miami Dolphins -3 v. Oakland Raiders
Oakland is in further disarray, as this week Gruden said "it is hard to find an elite pass rusher", despite just having traded away Khalil Mack.  Now we here that Gruden has his own personal circle of advisers outside of the management of the team.  Who does he think he is, Donald Trump?

I honestly considered a number of games here, but most of those picks were on the road, and giving up 3 points isn't that much to fret over.

Last Week's Record: 6-10-1

Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 17-14-1
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 1-1
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): ($665)
Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date: $145

Picks of the Week

PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS, PLAYOFFS!!!

A time to re-set the mindset from the season (even though I finished with three straight winning weeks (percentage-wise, lost a small amount last week).  Let's just dive right in.

My long time readers know how this works, but for everybody else,  a reminder.  Each pick is using the spread (straight up is for wussies), and the betting line is from the same website each week as of the time of typing the entry. I keep a running tally of my record, plus my winnings/losses. We will "pretend" that I bet $100 on each game.  No big bet for $250 this week, because I will also be making bets on the money line and the over/under. Winnings/Losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.

Houston Texans -2 1/2 v. Oakland Raiders
There is no question that the Raiders are the much better team, except for say, they have to start their third-string rookie quarterback for the first time in the playoffs on the road against the NFL's number 1 ranked defense.

Houston Texans -150 v. Oakland Raiders (Bet $150 to win $100)
I think that it goes without saying that if I am going to pick the Texans to win by more than a field goal, that they would win the game outright.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (37 1/2) UNDER
Brock Osweiler hosting Conner Cook.

Detroit Lions +8 1/2 at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle's defense has been less than stellar since Earl Thomas has went down, and they struggled to defeat the lowly San Francisco 49ers in week 17 after losing to the Arizona Cardinals at home the previous week.  Matthew Stafford has had a helluva season (more yards, more touchdowns and less interceptions than Russel Wilson).  Since the retirement of Calvin Johnson Stafford has been forced to spread the ball around.  He will miss Theo Riddick as a running back, hell, he will miss a running game, but look for Eric Ebron to make a big play or three with Earl Thomas not in the game.

Detroit Lions +325 at Seattle Seahawks (Bet $100 to win $325)
This isn't the same Seahawks teams as in the past.  Thomas Rawls has only averaged 3.2 yards per rush in filling in for the retired Marshawn Lynch, and Christine Michael is in Green Bay.  I really shouldn't trust the Lions, or Matt Stafford for that matter, but the +325 line is too hard to pass up.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (44) OVER
Somebody has to score in the NFL, and since Houston will beat Oakland 12-6, the points have to be scored in this game.

Miami Dolphins +11 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Miami defeated Pittsburgh earlier in the year, but that was primarily because they knocked out Ben Roethlisberger (enter Landry Jones), and because nobody was prepared for Jay Ajayi.  Well, guess what, people are prepared for Jay Ajayi and they still cannot really stop him.  This game stays pretty close, even though Pittsburgh is hot.  The pass rush of Ndamukong Suh inside and Cameron Wake with Dion Jordan (ha - that's funny) outside will put lots of pressure on Roethlisberger.

Miami Dolphins +475 at Pittsburgh Steelers (Bet $100 to win $475)
Now I honestly think Pittsburgh is going to win this game, but Pittsburgh is going off at -650 (other sites have between -600 and -650), which means the payoff opportunity is not there.  So, if there is even chance that Miami could win this game - and obviously there is because it already happened earlier this year - I am going to take that chance.

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (46) OVER
If both teams hit their statistical averages in scoring, and are around the statistical averages in points allowed, then this is right at the number.  I think it will be a bit more high scoring than that, say, 28-24.

Green Bay Packers -5 v. New York Giants
This is honestly the toughest one for me to pick as I don't know how this game is going to go.  I have not thought that the Giants were very good all year.  They cannot run, and in fact, were outrused by the Packers who are on their 37th starting tailback this season - and he is a Tight End.  The Giants are 23rd in passing defense, which should favor the Packers, but safety Landon Collins has 5 interceptions, and is playing like the best safety in football.  That being said, Aaron Rodgers has been on a roll, having won 6 straight.  I will ake the Packers to win more easily than most think.

Green Bay Packers -230 v. New York Giants (Bet $230 to win $100)
For much of the same reason as outlined above.  I really feel that the Packers are going to win this game outright, and at -230, it isn't that bad of a risk to win $100, especially considering that the Giants are only at +190 (some books at +200).  Give me Aaron Rodgers.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (44 1/2) OVER
Green Bay might score 31 by themselves.


Last Week's Record:  9-7
Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1
Year-to-Date Record:  132-121-5
Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-11
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($35)

Winnings (Losses) Year-to-Date:  ($1,560)