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Very weird week. The late-slot games could have been very as I was up late in a couple. The Arizona backdoor cover really got me, as that was my big bet. San Francisco hold them there and I go from a losing week to a winning week. Still, a pretty good week considering some of the craziness that occurred. Week 4 - let's do this. Remember, early game on Sunday in London!!! A reminder, all bets are for $100 expect for the Big Bet, which is $250. All losses incur a vig of 10%. On to the picks.
Cleveland Browns +2 1/2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers
I thought this was an easy pick because selecting the Steelers would have violated two football gambling rules: (1) Pick the home team on a short week; and (2) Never pick a road intra-divisional favorite. But, more importantly, did DeShaun Watson remember he was once ... GOOD?!
Washington Commanders +4 against Indianapolis Colts in London (Tottenham Hotspur Stadium)
Neither of these teams have looked particularly great overall, but the Commanders did play well with Marcus Mariota under center last week in defeating Seattle. So, the fact they are getting points in this game is important. I will take them, for sure, especially since points are really hard to come by in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. And yes, that is a dig at their soccer club.
Chicago Bears -4 v. New York Jets
I hate making this pick, even against the Jets because the Jets have a solid defense and the Bears are playing on a short week. But, the opportunity to win their third game of the season with a third-different starting quarterback - since Tyson Bagent is expected to start, not Case Keenum - was just way too tempting. If the Bears defense can play as tough as they have in the second halves of games, they should not just win, but cover.
Arizona Cardinals +2 1/2 at New York Giants
What a weird game, and a weird betting line. Arizona is a mountain time zone team, not a pacific time zone team, but they do not observe daylight savings time in Arizona - and thus, they are three hours behind New Jersey and playing in the early afternoon time slot. So, I should just pick the Giants. But it just seems like Jameis Winston will make a key turnover at a key time in the game. And the alternative is J.J. McCart ... ha, ha, ha!!!
Buffalo Bills -7 v. New England Patriots
The Patriots defeated the Bills last year, but this team is a far cry from last year's squad. Their defense is still pretty stout (6th in scoring and overall), but the Bills have a very balanced top offense (1st in scoring, 4th in rushing and total offense, 9th in passing - and in a huge stat 3rd in third-down conversion). I am taking the Bills until New England starts to play like last year (which may not occur).
Houston Texans -3 v. Dallas Cowboys
Houston might be the most disappointing team in the NFL so far this year. But, even as disappointing as they are, they still have the better defense in this game (duh?) but their offense has also been better than that of Dallas. Given this shocking stat, I will give up the points, where I was very close to just taking the points here.
Los Angeles Rams -4 at Philadelphia Eagles
This is a battle of competing gambling laws: Pacific Team in the early slot on the east coast (should select Philly) versus Eagles on a short week (should pick the Rams). I am taking the Rams because Puka Nacua is back, and that opens up this entire offense. And don't you think Matthew Stafford is a better quarterback than Case Keenum?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 v. Green Bay Packers
Yes, Baker Mayfield is injured and not playing, and we no little to nothing about Jalon Daniels (he's from Kansas). But, what I do know is that both of these teams have struggled, and in those games I take points. Also, Green Bay is a road, intra-divisional, favorite, so I will pick Tampa Bay, and not like it. But to be fair, I would not like it if I had selected Green Bay either.
Tennessee Titans +11 1/2 at Baltimore Ravens
No, I do not think that Tennessee is going to upset Baltimore. It is just that 11 1/2 is A LOT of points in the NFL, and the road team has historically been successful in this series, regardless of the stature of the programs when they play. I will take double-digit points and like it.
Jacksonville Jaguars +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
You can go back and ready my picks, and I have been higher on Cincinnati than most, especially with their two new defensive tackles (and they are 9th in the NFL against the rush!). But, the rest of the defense is well below par (and not in the golf way) (27th overall and 28th against the pass) and Trevor Lawrence enters the game with a 107.8 rating. AND I get points?!
Minnesota Vikings -9 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
It is possible that Brain Flores will be disappointing if they give up a SINGLE POINT to his former employers. They may not.
Kansas City Chiefs -4 at Las Vegas Raiders
A road intra-divisional favorite Pepster? Yes, when that favorite is second in the NFL in offense and 4th in total defense. Although the Raiders are showing progress, and are an amazing 3-0 on the season, they are just 17th in total defense and 20th in total offense. That is not going to get it done against this revitalized Chiefs offense with Kenneth Walker carrying the rushing load.
Los Angeles Chargers +7 at Seattle Seahawks
Do I believe that the Chargers are finished with Harbaugh and that this is his last season as head coach? Yes, I do. Do I believe that they will beat Seattle? No, probably not a motivated Seahawks team coming off a surprising loss to Washington last week. But do I think the Chargers are too talented to stay winless? Also yes. And that is why this game should at least stay closer than a TD.
San Francisco 49ers -2 1/2 v. Denver Broncos
I am riding with San Francisco until the stop looking like San Francisco has looked this season. That, coupled with the fact the Broncos are 29th in total offense and 30th in total defense, this game could get out of control.
Detroit Lions -4 at Carolina Panthers
I have also been higher on Carolina than most people, especially since their offense is 1st overall in passing, and 6th in total offense, and they are 5th in passing defense. But, Detroit is still Detroit with their one loss being to Buffalo Bills, one of the best two teams in the NFL in my estimation (at least as of right now). So I believe Detroit rolls into Carolina and takes care of business.
New Orleans Saints -1 1/2 v. Atlanta Falcons
This is incredibly hard to judge given that we have only seen one Atlanta game with Michael Penix, Jr. at quarterback - and they were spectacular. I think that we are going to get an amazing game, offensively exciting, and New Orleans pulls it out on a Tyler Shough to Juwan Johnson capitalizing on the emotion of the night as the 20th-anniversary of the opening of the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina - the Steve Gleason game!
BIG BET OF THE WEEK
Minnesota Vikings -9 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins
It is possible that Brain Flores will be disappointing if they give up a SINGLE POINT to his former employers. They may not.
I really, really, really wanted to roll with San Francisco here, especially since they are only giving up 2 1/2 whereas Minnesota is giving up 9 1/2. But, this Minnesota Vikings defense is LE-GIT, (2nd in scoring defense, 4th in rushing defense, and 1st in third-down defense), so the offense could score 17 to 21 and still cover this spread.
Results:
Last Week Record: 7-9
Last Week Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 21-26-1
Year-to-Date Big Bet: 1-2
Last Week Winnings (Losses): ($455)
Year-to-Date Winnings (Losses): ($940)
