Last week was the third week this year with only 3 losses or less! Too bad one of my losses was the Big Bet. If I keep this up, I could make this a profession! (Hint - it won't keep up; don't worry). But, a helluva year it has been. Let's hope it continues.
It is Week 14, so for those of you fantasy players fighting for a playoff spot - good luck!
For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread. I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100. Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler. On to the picks.
Pittsburgh Steelers -5 1/2 v. New England Patriots
When two horrible teams play, I ordinarily just take the points. The problem here was Pittsburgh was the home team on a short week. I should have known better due to my first sentence - after all home teams on short weeks only cover a bit more than 2/3 of the time. I should have known this was a 1/3.
Chicago Bears +3 1/2 v. Detroit Lions
The Lions won 31-26 at home versus the Bears in Week 11, right about the time the Bears defense starting to really dominate. This game is at home, and the Bears #1 ranked rush defense may be able to keep the score close. Plus, I love a home team getting points.
Carolina Panthers +5 1/2 at New Orleans Saints
This is just a gut pick because New Orleans has been playing poorly - losing their last 3 games and their last win coming in Week 9 against the Bears, who were worse than they are now.
Baltimore Ravens -7 1/2 v. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are in the playoff hunt after winning their last 3 games, but they are a west coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot. The Ravens defense makes sure that this game isn't particularly close.
Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Cincinnati Bengals
Very impressive performance by Cincinnati's offense - and especially Jake Browning - on Monday night against the Jaguars. But it was a Monday night, making this a short week, so I will take the points and the perpetually underrated Gardner Minshew.
Jacksonville Jaguars + 1 1/2 at Cleveland Browns
So, even after picking AGAINST Cincinnati because they played Monday night, I am picking FOR Jacksonville who played in the same game. That is because this Browns team with Joe Flacco is not the same. Yes, he gives some stability, but the explosiveness isn't there and despite Jerome Ford's great season, this offense really misses Nick Chubb.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 at Atlanta Falcons
Does anybody really believe that this game has serious playoff implications?! Well, it does. Give me the points in an awful game. Bonus bet, Richaad White outgains Bijon Robinson in yards from scrimmage.
Houston Texans -3 at New York Jets
This Jets defense is legit, and has been playing awesome the last few weeks, even in losses. but, this is a tremendous passing offense and even without Tank Dell, Houston will move the ball. The wildcard? Do we get a refreshed Zach Wilson out to prove he belongs in the NFL, or do we get a depressed, anxious Zach Wilson that tries to force things? I think the latter, and Houston's defense comes up with a big turnover or two.
San Francisco 49ers -14 v. Seattle Seahawks
San Francisco has been throttling teams, winning their last four games by over a 23 point average, including a 31-13 vicotry over this same Seattle team in Week 12. And this game is in San Francisco!
Las Vegas Raiders +3 v. Minnesota Vikings
Las Vegas has been playing teams tough, even though they have lost their last 4 games. Minnesota has a turnover maching at quarterback. Strip sack by Maxx Cosby anyone?
Kansas City Chiefs -1 v. Buffalo Bills
Two teams underperforming, but I will take Kansas City because of: (1) Josh Allen's turnovers; and (2) The fact that Kansas City's defenses is just a littttttle bit better (3 v. 5 scoring; 14th v. 17th 3rd down percentage; 19 v. 20 rushing; 6th v. 8th passing; and 4th v. 13th overall).
Denver Broncos -3 at Los Angeles Chargers
The smoke-and-mirrors that was 5 consecutive wins for the Broncos may have ended with their 22-17 loss to Houston last week; except now they play the worst defense in the NFL.
Dallas Cowboys -3 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles
The Cowboys offense is humming, having scored no less than 33 points in their 4 wins since losing 28-23 to the Eagles in Philadelphia in Week 9. And, this game is at home.
Green Bay Packers -6 1/2 at New York Giants
Not sure what has gotten into Jordan Love, but he has been playing great in the Packers' three-game winning streak, and now they get to play the worst offense and the 28th-ranked defense in the NFL.
Miami Dolphins -13 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
This is a huge point spread, but this late in the season most of the betting services have a pretty good idea of what is going on in the league. Plus, the Dolphins have scored 34 and 45 in their last two weeks after a close win versus the Raiders in Week 11. Tennessee is 22nd in passing defense and has to contend with the #1 ranked passing offense and the receiving yards leader in Tyreek Hill.
Big Bet:
Miami Dolphins -13 1/2 v. Tennessee Titans
This is a huge point spread, but this late in the season most of the betting services have a pretty good idea of what is going on in the league. Plus, the Dolphins have scored 34 and 45 in their last two weeks after a close win versus the Raiders in Week 11. Tennessee is 22nd in passing defense and has to contend with the #1 ranked passing offense and the receiving yards leader in Tyreek Hill.
Yes - this is absolutely idiotic for me to pick this game as my big bet. Way too many points to give up. But, most of the other teams I felt like selecting are on the road (Green Bay, Houston, Tampa Bay, Jacksonville), or Baltimore giving up more than a touchdown at home. So, I might as well go with the hot offense.
Record
Last Week's Record: 10-3
Last Week's Big Bet: 0-1
Year-to-Date Record: 108-76-9
Big Bet Year-to-Date: 7-6
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $505
Last Week's Winnings (Losses): $505
Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,500
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