Picks of the Week

 

Last week's results were almost the exact opposite as the previous week.  Two weeks ago with 5 to 10 munutes left in the 1:00 games I was basically 9-1, and with a lot of scores changing the outcome in the early games, I lost money.  This week at the 1:00 juncture with a quarter left, I was 1-2, and losing 5 of 6 games.  Thank god for the turnaround as a few games switched, and a strong finish in the p.m. games and on Monday led to a winning record.  Can you say STREAK?!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Cleveland Browns -7 v. New York Jets

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!  Long live Joe Flacco!  I bet the Jets wish they had a veteran like him!

Dallas Cowboys -5 1/2 v. Detroit Lions

I initially picked Detroit, and I really, really want to take Detroit here - especially at this number - but this game is also a short week game, so I changed my mind.  Both of these teams are solid to great on both sides of the ball.  The slightest kink in each's armor:  Detroit is 23rd in passing defense going against Dallas' 6th ranked pass offense; Dallas in 19th in rushing defense going against Detroit's 3rd ranked run game.

Chicago Bears -3 v. Atlanta Falcons

This Chicago Bears team is a couple of mismanaged end-of-game coaching from having won 7-in-a row.  I am not saying the deserved to win all of those games, nor would they have if not for poor coaching, but just saying this team is way closer than people think.  If they manage Carolina's first overall pick well, i.e. trading back even 5 to 9 spots for an appropriate package (or even better, trading to 2 or 3, then trading back again!), and they select well in this year's draft (plus extra firsts in 2025 and 2026), they could be set for awhile!

Miami Dolphins +3 at Baltimore Ravens

Both teams played great against good opponents last week, Miami beating Dallas and Baltimore dismantling San Francisco.  I feel that if one of the teams is going to suffer a letdown this week it might be the Ravens, but only because they are playing on a short week, whereas the Dolphins have their regular 7-days between games.  So, this paragraph is what I wrote on Saturday, when I first published this week's picks.  But, my actual pick, when thinking about this and deciding Miami just might be too banged up to deal with Baltimore, my official pick is ...

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 v. Miami Dolphins

So, I lost an extra half-point by changing my mind, but so be it.

Houston Texans -4 v. Tennessee Titans

Houston, fighting for a playoff spot - and evening a divisional championship - have C.J. Stroud back!

New England +14 at Buffalo Bills

Buffalo wins this game, but most of their games have been close.  New England's last few games have been (L7, L10, W3, L6, L3, L4, L4, L3) in the last eight weeks.  This game should be easily within 2 touchdowns.

New York Giants +6 v. Los Angeles Rams

I am torn between two betting rules here:  The Rams are a west coast team traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot (disadvantge) versus the Giants who are playing on a short week (disadvantage).  I will take the Giants because they are getting points, and because Tyrod Taylor is the professional quarterback that can at least keep them settled.

Washington Commanders +13 1/2 v. San Francisco 49ers

Is it bad that I want to select Washington here?  San Francisco is a west coast team traveling east playing in the 1:00 time slot AND they are playing on a short week.  I suppose I can just hope Washington can keep it close AND they have been playing much better when Jacoby Brissett has been behind center, which he will do from the start Sunday.

Philadelphia Eagles -12 v. Arizona Cardinals

So Philadelphia is playing on a short week, but sometimes a short-week team covers.  This week it will be Philadelphia, as Arizona is hoping for Carolina's third loss to aid them in their quest for the first overall pick, and the subsequent trade haul it could garner from team's that need a QB.  See Bears, Chicago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

Carolina Panthers +4 at Jacksonville Jaguars

Trevor Lawrence is missing his first NFL game due to an injury, and although C.J. Beatherd is a legitimate NFL backup and won't panic in the pocket, the Panthers have been playing well, losing by 3 to the Packers last week, defeating the Falcons the week prior, and losing to the Buccaneers by 3 two weeks before that.  Closer than it should be, and Carolina at least covers, if not wins outright.

Indianapolis Colts -4 v. Las Vegas Raiders

Antonio Pearce has the Raiders playing inspired football lately, but they suffer from the double-whammy of traveling to the Eastern time zone to play in the 1:00 time slot AND they are on a short week.  That might just be too much to overcome.  Gardner Minshew is also hunting for the AFC South title.  Sorry, I just made every Jaguar fan cringe!

Seattle Seahawks -4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers

Too bad for Rudolp (Mason) that Christmas is over.  We can all go back to mocking him and not letting him play reindeer games.  (Or at least I hope!)

Las Angeles Chargers +3 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Dysfunction, dysfunction, dysfunction - and this has nothing to do with Jarret Stidham.  Even if some of the roster are anti-Russell Wilson, they are not anti-administration screwing with players and the players' money.  I am not talking about benching him for 2 games to protect an off-season trade from injury; I am talking about the revelation that the Broncos came to Wilson after the Broncos defeated the Chiefs and told him to renegotiate his contract downward or he would be benched BACK THEN!

Cincinnati Bengals +6 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

Yes, I know that Joe Burrow and most likely J'Marr Chase are not playing.  But, Jake Browning has been playing well (a 98.5 rating compared to Patrick Mahomes' 91.7), and the Chiefs have not been playing that well.  Plus, they are on a short week.  I'll take almost a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings -1 v. Green Bay Packers

A one-point spread in what is basically a playoff elimination game for the loser of this divisional rivalry.  Lots to digest in this game, as Jaren Hall will be making the start over Nick Mullens, who moved the ball well, but just turned it over too much.  Hall was 8/10 for 101 yards in his first game this year, so there is potentail, especially given his talented skill position players, including Justin Jefferson and Ty Chandler.  Chandler could feast against the NFL's 30th ranked run defense.  And speaking of the Packers' defense, star cornerback Jaire Alexander is suspended and will not dress for talking the field as a captain last week when he was not a captain, and then electing to defend instead of defer when Green Bay won the toss.  He was lucky that the coaching staff had previously expressed to the officials they would defer if they won the toss, so the officials bailed out Alexander, otherwise we could have seen a game where Carolina received the ball with the opening kickoff IN BOTH HALVES!

Big Bet:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2 1/2 v. New Orleans Saints

Does anybody really want to play the Buccaneers right now?  Or, in the playoffs?  Tampa Bay is on a 4-game winning streak with Baker Mayfield just playing lights-out!

I am riding with team Baker on this one.  I do like Houston, New England, and Chicago here, but I am taking Tampa Bay.

Record

Last Week's Record:  9-5-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  128-98-14

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-9
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $185

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,585