Picks of the Week

 

Pathetically average week, but losing the Big Bet hurts a lot!  Try to turn this around this week, with a good start on Thursday!  Merry Christmas everyone, and good luck betting!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Los Angeles Rams -4 v. New Orleans Saints

Home team on a short week, especially when the home team has been playing well!

Cincinnati Bengals -3 at Pittsburgh Steelers

I know that I am going against the above adage - home team on a short week, but the Bengals have been cruising under Jake Browning.  But, could it be stupid to bet against Rudolph (Mason) on Christmas weekend?!

Buffalo Bills -12 at Los Angeles Chargers

This is absolutely ridiculous!  I mean, I get why it is this high - what is an Easton Stick anyway? - but why am I picking it?  Gut feeling, and the Chargers have among the worst defenses in the NFL (30th overall, 28th scoring, 30th passing yards)  Calling Stefon Diggs!

Chicago Bears -4 v. Arizona Cardinals

Chicago took the league's best defense down to the wire, and if not for a dropped TD on the final Hail Mary, would have beat them. Arizona's is nowehere near the level of the Browns (26th overall, 31st rushing, 31st scoring), but Chicago's defense may be close to that level now.

Tennessee Titans +3 v. Seattle Seahawks

Seattle coming off an emotional upset win on Monday night, are ripe for an upset, especially since they are playing on a short week.

Indianapolis Colts +2 1/2 at Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta's defense is playing very well this year (9th in total defense), and they were starting to use Bijan Robinson a bit, and then last week's loss to the horrendous Panthers happened.  And, Gardner Minshew is ripe to take this team to the playoffs, especially with Jonathan Taylor back.

Cleveland Browns -3 at Houston Texans

Case Keenum is a legitimate NFL quarterback, and is not going to be scared by being on the field.  The problem for him is that Cleveland's defense just runs through everyone.  And, Joe Flacco is still a legit NFL quarterback as well.  He might get sacked a few more times than normal, but he will fling it around the field.

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

Washington Commanders +3 at New York Jets 

I don't like this line one bit.  I actually wrote it selecting Washington, and picking New York.  Either way, I don't like it.  But, I really don't Trevor Siemian.

Detroit Lions -3 at Minnesota Vikings

This Lions offense is really potent (3rd overall, 4th passing, 2nd rushing, 5th scoring), and although Nick Mullens can play, Detroit is within range of home-field advantage.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1 1/2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville is in the midst of a three-game slump, and even with Trevor Lawrence being out of concussion protocol, their 25th ranked defense (overall/29th passing and 21st scoring) may have its collective hands full with a team that has won 3 games in a row scoring 34, 29, and 21 in those wins.

Miami Dolphins -2 v. Dallas Cowboys

I honestly think that the Cowboys are going to win this game.  But ... I cannot pick 3 visiting teams on short weeks, and I already picked Cincinnati and Buffalo.

New England Patriots +7 at Denver Broncos

New England has played teams tough, losing by 10 last week to Kansas City.  Denver is not Kansas City.  I don't think Denver can score enough points to cover this spread against the Patriots defense (8th total, 2nd in rushing defense).

Las Vegas Raiders +10 1/2 at Kansas City Chiefs

There is no way Las Vegas is as good as their 63-point outburst last week, but they just may be good enough to cover a double digit spread against a team that has been struggling a bit in the past month or so.

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 1/2 v. New York Giants

A double-digit spread against an intra-divisional rival is almost always an automatic no-no (see Raiders above).  But, this is where the Tommy DeVito experience comes crashing to the ground like a feast of sleeping with 7 fishes.

Baltimore Ravens +6 at San Francisco 49ers

I just think that this game is going to be incredibly close.  Because of that, I'll take the points.  But, Nick Bosa might have the best game of any edge rusher ever.  I am assuming that he is going to be extra motivated (IYKYK) against the one team in the NFL with an all-black quarterback room (3 QBs, OC, QB coach).  Baltimore still keeps it close.

Big Bet:

Green Bay Packers -4 at Carolina Panthers

Even in a win, the Panthers managed to look awful.  See last week's 9-7 win over Atlanta.

I hate picking visiting teams giving points as my big bet, but there are not a lot of other choices out there.  I thought about the Browns, but they are in the same situation as the Packers being on the road giving up points.  The Colts and Raiders were also on my radar.  I am just hoping that Aaron Jones comes back from injury and has a terrific game (as I need him for fantasy too!)

Record

Last Week's Record:  7-7-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  119-93-12

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  7-8
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($235)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,400