Picks of the Week

Happy Thanksgiving everybody!!!  And we all know what Thanksgiving means ...  NFL Football!!!  Time for me to say thank you to all you readers - or both readers - wichever is most accurate!  I am happy that from time-to-time you pay attention to my musings.  Although I don't expect anybody to necessarily read this, I do appreciate when I find out that you do!  Enjoy Thanksgiving and football!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Detroit Lions -8 1/2 v. Green Bay Packers

Listen, after watching the Bears take the Lions down to the wire last weekend, there is no way that I like this pick, but it is a short week, and the Lions are home.  Plus, I feel like they think they have something to prove after last week's close call.

Dallas Cowboys -13 1/2 v. Washington Commanders

Two gambling rules facing off against each other:  (1) Take the home team on a short week versus (2) Take double digit intradivsional underdog.  Not sure exactly what to do here, but Dallas' offense has really been clicking and the Commanders' defense is missing Chase Young and Montez Sweat.  I hate giving up double digits, but why not.

San Francisco 49ers -7 at Seattle Seahawks

OK, so this isn't the home team, but, home team on short weeks only cover 2/3rds of the time.  So, this is my 1/3rd prediction, especially since I don't expect Geno Smith to be back to 100%, and gthey only have the 19th best offense even when he is.

New York Jets +9 1/2 at Miami Dolphins

Another home team/short week as this game is on Friday.  I am taking the Jets just because they have the 5th best passing defense and the 9th best total defense.  Not sure how many points the Jets will score under Tim Boyle, but I think the defense can keep the score low, so I will take 9 1/2.

Houston Texans +2 v. Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars seem like the better team, but they have the 29th ranked passing defense going up against Houston's 2nd ranke passing offense.  They both give up approximately the same amount of points (20.4 for Jacksonville and 20.8 for Houston), so I will take the points at home.

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Unknown qualities here - Jake Browning for Cincinnati and new offensive play caller for Pittsburgh.  In that scenario, I'll take TJ Watt.

Tennessee Titans -3 1/2 v. Carolina Panthers

The Panthers continue their march to the Chicago Bears #1 overall pick!  Honestly, not a lot of thought to this one, taking the home below average team over the visiting awful team.

New Orleans Saints +1 at Atlanta Falcons

Two pretty good defenses, and two very average offenses.  One team has Arthur Smith coaching, so I will take a point and take the other team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 1/2 at Indianapolis Colts

Two teams that are way better than their record, but way worse statistically than their play.  Of note is Tampa's sixth-ranked rush defense going against Indianapolis' 10th ranked rush offense.  If I think it is going to be close, I'll take the points.

New York Giants +3 1/2 v. New England Patriots

If we can get the Giants team that played the Commanders last week, this should be easy; but no guarantee that happens.  Either way New England isn't that much better, so I'll take points.

Cleveland Browns +1 1/2 at Denver Broncos

Denver is much improved from the beginning of the year, but this Browns defense is no joke.  First overall, first in passing yards, first in 3rd down defense, 6th in scoring and 11th in rushing defense.  And I get points?  I feel like Dorian Thompson-Robinson is athletic enough to make the plays when he needs to do so, and the defense keeps the Broncos from scoring too much.

Los Angeles Rams -1 1/2 at Arizona Cardinals

Arizona played well in a loss last week to Houston, and Kyler Murray is back with a game under his belt, but the Rams should get Khyren Williams back with Matthew Stafford.  I'll take the Rams.

Buffalo Bills +3 1/2 at Philadelphia Eagles

The Bills are spiraling offensively, and especially turnover-wise, but Philadelphia is coming off a tough Monday night win over the Chiefs, which could affect them this week (plus it's a short week with Thanksgiving in the middle).  I'll take the points and the somewhat normal week.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 1/2 v. Kansas City Chiefs

The Raiders are playing inspired ball under Antonio Pearce, and although they may not win this game, Kansas City drops enough balls to keep this within a touchdown.  The Raiders limited the Dolphins to only 20 points last week, so that could continue, plus the Chiefs are coming off a heartbreaker on Monday night, and the short week - with a Thanksgiving interruption - doesn't bode well for the Chiefst to have to travel to Vegas.

Baltimore Ravens -3 1/2 at Los Angeles Chargers

The NFL's worst pass defense and total defense hosting Lamar Jackson's 4th highest scoring offense and 6th best total offense.  Although the Chargers have offensive talent, the Ravens look to distance themselves a bit from the AFC North, with the injuries to Joe Burrow and DeShaun Watson.

Chicago Bears +3 at Minnesota Vikings

The Bears played Detroit great for 55 minutes last week.  If they can do that this week, this game will be close enough for a cover.  The Bears are 4th in rushing offense and second in rushing defense.  In most years without Matt Eberflus coaching that produces a winning team.

Big Bet:

Pittsburgh Steelers -2 at Cincinnati Bengals

Unknown qualities here - Jake Browning for Cincinnati and new offensive play caller for Pittsburgh.  In that scenario, I'll take TJ Watt.

I don't like any of these games for my big bet, as the ones that I feel most sure about have some big spreads.  So, I'll just bet against Jake Browning.

Last Week's Record:  6-8

Last Week's Big Bet:  0-1

Year-to-Date Record:  89-66-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-5
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  ($445)

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $1,715