Picks of the Week

Lots and lots of injuries.  Burrow - out; Mark Andrews - out; DeShaun Watson - out.  And that is just in the NFC North.  Last week hurt a lot for a lot of teams, and for your boy, who had an OK week (I lied - a really good week), but not good considering the previous week was 11-3!  (Did I mention I went 11-3 two weeks ago?)  Anyway, this could be worse - like Florida State losing their quarterback, making it a serious question mark for them to make the playoffs this year, given they have a rivalry game and a conference championship game coming up.  But, that is college, and that is in the future.  This is for today - and it is the N F L!!!

For those that are new to this site, I will select every game against the spread.  I will be selecting one big bet at $250 per, whereas everything else will be $100.  Winners count as winners, whereas, losses will be calculated including a 10% vig to make the math that much simpler.  On to the picks.

Baltimore -4 1/2 v. Cincinnati Bengals

Home team, short week, tie.  Ugh!

Chicago Bears +7 1/2 at Detroit Lions

Detroit wins this game, but it is the first game this season in which the Bears will be starting their entire starting offensive line.  That's right - it happened in Week 11.  Plus, with their starting running back - Khalil Herbert - and their starting quarterback - Justin Fields - back, this game seems ripe for a backdoor cover because Fields scrambles right for 30 yards on a two-minute drive to lose 31 - 24.

 

Tennessee Titans +6 1/2 at Jacksonville Jaguars

If you watch these teams, you definitely know Jacksonville is better, but, if you look at the statistics, they are remarkably similar.  What does that mean to me?  Taking almost a touchdown seems to be the play because this game should be close.

Green Bay Packers +3 v. Los Angeles Chargers

If this game was being played in the 4:00 slot, I might bet differently, but, west coast teams traveling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot usually lose.  Except, Green Bay is central, so that is minimized.  What isn't minimized is the Chargers horrific defense - 32nd overall and 32nd in pass defense.  There are only 32 teams in the league.  Green Bay may not win, but they should cover.

Washington Commanders -8 1/2 v. New York Giants

This looks like a huge number given that Washington is 4-6.  But, the Giants offense is last the NFL is scoring, passing and total offense and the defense is not much better at 20th in scoring, 24th in rushing, 21st in passing, and 27th in total defense.  Washingotn's defense is not much better, but their offense is way, way better as Sam Howell has thrown for more yards than any other quarterback in the NFL.

Miami Dolphins -14 v. Las Vegas Raiders

This line is ridiculously hard to predict.  First, the Raiders have played spirited ball under Interim Head Coach Antonio Pearce.  But, they are a west-coast team travelling east and playing in the 1:00 time slot.  So, against my own better judgment, I will lay the 2 touchdowns and hope the track team returns with Achane back.

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Pittsburgh Steelers +2 at Cleveland Browns

In a game that is likely to end 2-0; I will take the points.  

Dallas Cowboys - 10 1/2 at Carolina Panthers

No offense in the NFL is clicking as well as the Cowboys, and to top that off they have the 2nd best total defense, the 2nd best passing defense, and the 4th best scoring defense.

San Francisco 49ers -13 1/2 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It seems like the bye week did San Francisco well.

Seattle Seahawks +2 at Los Angeles Rams

Both teams are remarkably similar on paper, with the Seahawks a little worse on defense.  But, I would take the points in this game no matter which team was reciving them, as it should be close.

New York Jets +8 1/2 at Buffalo Bills

The Bills are certainly not clikcing right now, and on top of that, this is a short week for them coming off their defeat Monday night at the hands of the Broncos.  I'll take more than a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings + 2 1/2 at Denver Broncos

In a game that should be close, I will take the points, especially since Denver, like Buffalo above, is coming off a short week.  No Justin Jeffereson makes this harder for Minnesota, but the game should still be close.

Kansas City Chiefs -2 1/2 v. Philadelphia Eagles

Andy Reid is 26-6 coming off a bye week (19-3 in the regular season).  And, he gets this game at home.  The Eagles are actually playing better this year, but nobody prepares his team better than Reid.  He is the Tom Izzo of the NFL.

Bye Week:  Atlanta Falcons; Indianapolis Colts; New England Patriots; New Orleans Saints

Big Bet:

Houston Texans -5 1/2 v. Arizona Cardinals

Houston's offense, despite not being able to run - AT ALL (25th in the NFL) - remains 5th in the league in total offense behind CJ Stroud's 2nd-ranked passing offense.  Arizona's 28th-ranked scoring defense will not be able to slow down Houston's offense - who now smell playoffs, especially with the injuries in the AFC North.

Houston Texans should win this game easily, even with the return of Kyler Murray.  The one thing Arizona does moderately well is run the ball (9th in the NFL), and Houston is 8th in rushing defense.  Somewhat negating that "strength", Housston should win easily.  I wanted to consider Dallas, but tehy are on the road.  Same with Seattle.  San Francisco just giving up too many points.

Last Week's Record:  8-4-2

Last Week's Big Bet:  1-0

Year-to-Date Record:  83-58-9

Big Bet Year-to-Date:  6-4
Last Week's Winnings (Losses):  $510

Year to Date's Winnings (Losses): $2,160